Sunday, August 10, 2014

August 10th tatical, strategic and political SITREP by Juan

1. The Cauldron has not been totally suppressed as of 08:19 10.08.2014. Scattered pockets of Uke troops are still resisting. They are promptly overwhelmed as Resistance conducts their sweeps of the mostly abandoned Uke positions in The Cauldron. Confirmed.

2. Of the over 700 Uke troops who ran to and crossed the Norovorossiya/RF border more than 60% have asked for asylum. The remainder have been repatriated to Ukraine by their request. Confirmed.

3. A bargain was made two days ago for some Uke units to leave The Cauldron. The bargain was the Ukes leave their undamaged vehicles, both transport and fighting vehicles. Buses were provided by the Ukes to meet this group and transport them away from The Cauldron. Confirmed.

4. Another group of Ukes in The Cauldron attempted an armed breakout. This group has a very high proportion of foreign fighters, mostly Polish but with 'others'. Their column was attacked continuously during the attempt and lost significant numbers of troops and equipment. It is estimated that of almost 700 who made the attempt less than 225 managed to escape after abandoning their wounded during the fighting. The attempt and loses are confirmed.

5. It has been noticed that the continuous Uke bombardments of civilian living areas in villages, towns and cities are hitting the 'ordinary workers and peasants' districts. The very extensive wealthy areas are virtually untouched by the Uke arty.

6. With the number of Resistance observers in The Cauldron much intelligence information was gathered in addition to FAO activities. This information has been given to RF with extensive written information and large amounts of photographic evidence. This information is being used in the prosecution of now 9 Uke officers and 14 Uke NCO detained in Russian Federation for investigation of possible commission of war crimes involving the use of prohibited weapons against civilian targets in Novorossiya, the targeting of civilian areas in Novorossiya, the murder of 1 citizen of RF in Russia, the wounding of 7 citizens of RF in Russia and the destruction of both public and private property in Russian Federation. Confirmed.

7. Additional use of Tuchka U tactical ballistic missiles is unconfirmed. The use of the first 3 (or 4) Tuchka U systems resulted in the inability of the missiles to complete their course to their targets. Two very large impact craters have been observed in outlying villages in the Donetsk area since the first launches but it is unknown what caused the craters. While the surrounding houses were damaged by the impacts they do not show the massive damage that would have resulted from the air detonation of a Tuchka which would totally destroy any structure or living entity within 200 meters of the blast.

8. The overall situation in Novorossiya is very fluid as of 09:00 local time. The remains of the units from The Cauldron have now combined with the Uke units that were trying to break through Resistance 'lines' and relieve The Cauldron and are attacking originally north and have now realigned their attacks and are aimed directly at Lugansk Aerodrome some kilometers away. There is the possibility of another cauldron forming around Antratsyt. If this comes to pass it is doubtful any mercy will be shown to the Uke forces trapped inside. As of 10:05 local time there are no significant ground actions on the northwest lines of Novorossiya, all attacks are on the southeast areas.

9. While the tactical fighting is to and fro with many Resistance resounding successes the overall strategic situation for Novorossiya has not changed. Novorossiya is still vastly outnumbered by the Uke armed forces in manpower and catastrophically outnumbered in hardware regardless of the huge captures of Uke equipment by Novorossiya AF. The Ukes have the option of massing where they want and when they want and conducting forward movement operations as they please. The Novorossiya AF have not the manpower to fully man 'the lines' (neither do the Ukes) but Novorossiya AF are conducting defensive operations against an increasingly aggressive foe who is learning on the fly and learning well.

10. The political situation is still the same in regards to The West. RF is 'forbidden' to help Novorossiya with humanitarian aid or to position RF troops on or near the increasingly volatile borders between RF/Ukeland according to the US delegate to UN, Nato and Brussels. Moving the Aegis cruiser Vella Gulf in to the Black Sea is a non starter. The Black Sea is a Russian lake and any aggressive moves by the cruiser may well result in an incident that will have far reaching consequences, not the least of which will be to Vella Gulf himself.

11. The gradual introduction of NATO troops and equipment in to Ukeland proper is of far more import. The first official 'non lethal' equipment shipment from 'Canada' has arrived in Kharkov via Nato air transport on 09.08.2014. Another shipment is scheduled for shortly after 12:00 on 10.08.2014. It is confirmed that there are Nato troops on the ground in Kharkov to assist in the unloading of the cargoes and the training involved with the new equipment and to guard the area in aerodrome proper. Note. To train Uke soldiers in the sophisticated night vision and other electronic equipment will take a month or more of intensive work. Ukeland does not have a month nor does Nato. Who is going to use this equipment? It is also confirmed that there is an ever increasing and not small cadre of American troops in Kiev assisting the Ukeland government in their prosecution of the war under the nominal auspices of NATO.

12. Conclusions. Russia will not allow Novorossiya to fall. Russian Army will not cross the borders with Novorossiya unless there is a catastrophic attack involving massive civilian casualties in Novorossiya or Russian Federation.