Wednesday, February 2, 2011

An assault against the demonstrators could be imminent

Al-Jazeera is reporting that military vehicles are circulating around Tahrir square telling people to return inside their apartments and not even lean out of windows.  My understanding is that while anti-Mubarak demonstrators are still inside the Tahrir square, they are fewer in numbers (after 9 days many are probably exhausted, if not frightened).  I am also getting the feeling that the pro-Mubarak forces are in control of the areas around Tahrir square.  Lastly, from the images shown on al-Jazeera, the anti-Mubarak demonstrators are taking absolutely *no* measures to prepare for a possible assault.  All these are very bad signs telling me that an assault to re-take Tahrir square by the pro-Mubarak forces could well be successful.

The opposition appears not to understand the 'rules' of the insurrection 'game'.  In such a dynamic, the control of symbolic targets, such as the Presidential palace or the main TV station, is absolutely crucial.  Simply occupying a big square, even a central one, is far from being enough (Tiananmen anybody?).

I sure hope that the anti-Mubarak forces, in general, and the MB in particular, are not the same type of "clever tactically, absolutely inept strategically" force as, for example, Hamas. 

The opposition needs to re-take the initiative very fast if it does not to loose it all.

The Saker