Many of you have asked for a SITREP on the situation in the Ukraine. I have forwarded the request to Juan and Gleb. I just came back home today and I don't have the energy to make an analysis right now. Sorry. But I will say the following:
1) All the signs are that the Ukies have broken through several Resistance lines and that Donetsk is either surrounded or close to being surrounded.
2) The situation around Saur Mogila is very confused. From what I can tell the Resistance has lost the hill, but the Ukies have not taken it either. Both sides are shelling the hill.
At this point, I it too early to assess the situation. Yes, it looks bad, no doubt about it, but looks can be deceiving. For one thing, nobody in the Resistance side is in a panic or even disaster mode. The message I get it "the situation is serious but tenable".
Here is what I wrote to a contact just a few hours ago:
What I don't like is the fact that the Ukies are still in the offensive mode. They bleed, and they attack. They bleed again, and they attack again. Then they bleed some more, and they attack again. What if they suffer humongous casualties, and then win. Do you see what I fear? The resistance can do what the Germans did in WWII - win tactically, but loose operationally and then strategically. I am afraid that the resistance will "win its way to defeat".I am NOT saying that this is why is happening now. And at least one contact has replied to me "NO COLLAPSE. Everything is holding".
We shall see.
Right now, I am going to hit the sack, sorry I am exhausted. If I get a SITREP tonight I will try to post it. If not, then tomorrow. Stay tuned.
The Saker
