Overview of the Situation in the Donbass Region from Gleb Bazov

Overview of the Situation in the Donbass Region – August 24, 2014

Translated by Daniel Mikhailovich
Edited by Olga Luzanova

The Fighting in the Coastal Area

Even recently, it might have seemed laughable, but today the fighting has begun in the area of Novoazovsk, where a powerful anti-aircraft defense node and a hodgepodge of different units of questionable combat capability have been stationed since April to cover the border with Russia. After the Southern Encirclement 2.0 was created, the Militiamen began to probe the other checkpoints to the south-west of Marinovka, and were surprised to find out that there are almost no defenses. All the forces were drawn up to the main front line, creating a gap to the south of Amvrosievka, which was only partially covered with the covering forces. At first, the Militia’s saboteur-reconnaisance groups (“SRG”) began to infiltrate to the south-west, which has led to the capture of the "Uspenka" border checkpoint. After that, the Militia broke-out to the coast, as there were no serious forces of the Junta. As a result, several SRGs moved almost to Novoazovsk and the towns of Holodnoe and Sedovo, firing and attacking some checkpoints.

The Militia obviously doesn't have enough forces there to seize and hold the towns (let alone capturing Novoazovsk or Mariupol); but judging by the reports that a bomb shelter has been opened in Mariupol, the command of the Junta in this area lost their nerve. It is not only that the gap along the border continues to expand, there is also a threat (even if remote for now) to Novoazovsk and Mariupol; as there are few Junta's forces there, and nobody knows what can appear from across the border. Moreover, the gap in the front, to the south of Amvrosievka, also does not seem optimistic. In general, what is happening now is not yet an offensive with definite goals, but just a distracting raid in the rear of the enemy, which turned out to be an unpleasant surprise for the Junta. To be honest, very few people expected the fighting on the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov to start so soon. In general, the trend is favorable for us.

Ilovaysk

Today near Ilovaysk the Junta has continued its attempts "to break through the wall with its head", sending almost all of the combat-ready forces to attack Ilovajsk. The attack bogged down even before the Junta talking heads could declare that Ilovajsk has been taken once again. This is a very weird stubbornness, given that a more effective plan would involve encircling and taking Mospino, and the gaps in the front to the south of Amvrosievka. The strategic point of the attack is long gone; it is an attempt to reverse the situation with insufficient forces - because even if by some miracle the Junta takes the ruins of Ilovaysk and pushes out the Militia, it will not go beyond one tactical success against the backdrop of the bleak strategic situation.

Saur-Mogila, Schachtersk and Torez

Fighting continued, with both sides largely staying on their positions. The Junta’s mechanized units tried to move towards Miner and Thorez, but didn’t make it far.

Theoretically, these battles are good for the Militia, as the Junta spends reserves there quite aimlessly.  That has made the punitive battalions (volunteer units made up of activists/neo-nazis/released criminals) suspect that the Junta command deliberately drives the southern battlegroup into a meat grinder. (That is one version - that they are agents of the Kremlin - another, because that is how Poroshenko gets rid of radical elements). All in all, another week or so of such operations, and the Junta there will be in for a surprise.  Southern Encirclement 2.0 has held out so far, but the Junta losses and the Militia trophies there will be considerable - the Militia is currently attacking on Dyakovo and offering the surrounded forces the same conditions as before - retreat to Russia, leaving the vehicles to the Militia.

Donetsk

In the north of Donetsk the Junta seems absolutely exhausted, only pretending that the failed offensive is proceeding via the SRGs' forces and continuing shelling; whereas the self-defense Militia forces managed to start an offensive towards Uglegorsk which, although not yet taken, hardly looks like a springboard for the Junta's attack on Yenakievo anymore. The Militia will try to take it in the coming days to protect Gorlovka and Yenakievo and prevent the bisection Donetsk-Gorlovka battlegroup. In general, it is now possible to say conclusively that the attack on Donetsk has failed, and there is no direct threat to the city. And the enemy was not merely driven from Yasinovataya and back to Uglegorsk. In the area of ​​Zhdanovka there was another mini-encirclement, and the Junta salient in the area of Verhnyaya and Nizhnyaya Krynka has been wiped out, with the Militia taking captives and trophies. The front is gradually approaching Debalcevo, which is one of the priority objectives for the Militia.

Debalcevo

To the north of Debalcevo, the self-defense forces delivered an unexpected blow to the Junta, towards the north-west, with the result that the forward units were able to move to the vicinity of Severodonetsk. There were overly optimistic statements that the Militia had been about to take back Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, but in fact, there is a lack of Militia forces there, and taking two major cities at once would be quite problematic, especially with the advance SRGs alone. The weakness of the Junta's forces in this area provides various options for offensive action - the fact is that most of the Junta battlegroup that took Lisichansk from the Militia were later moved to other areas - some units moved towards Debalcevo and Yasinovataya, some left for Schast’e and Stanitsa Luganskaya. As a result, the Militia found a weak spot and delivered a nasty blow that led to a breakthrough in the front. The main thing is that this breakthrough, and the raid of saboteur-reconnaisance groups by the coast, demonstrates that the operational depth of the enemy forces is not high. After breaking after through the enemy front in weak areas, the Militia is able to act in the operational vacuum, where the enemy has practically no reserves. But due to lack of strength, those nasty (for the Junta) breakouts have not yet led to decisive results. It is clear that if the Militia had dedicated 15-20 tanks, as many BMPs and 200-300 infantry to one of these gaps, then it would have taken the cities in the rear of the enemy. But for now the Militia do what they can.

Lugansk

The Junta offensive against Lugansk failed. The enemy has been driven off from Hryaschevatoe; they are still holding by Novosvetlovskaya, but this is a purely defensive action. The self-defense militia forces have already started an offensive against Lutugino and Chast’e. The loss of either one of these would be a complete disaster for the battlegroup besieging Lugansk, as it would be dissected into several parts; although some of it is actually in operational encirclement even now. Today, predictably, there was an attack from the south in the Volnuhino area, and as a result, there is a direct threat to Lutugino; there are already militia combat recon groups on the outskirts. The general meaning of combat here is that if the militia take back Lutugino, they will then be able to fully control the route Lugansk-Krasny Luch, which would greatly enhance the connectivity of Novorossiya’s territory and the coordination of its armed forces. In this regard, Lutugino and Debalcevo are the key nodes of the transport network in the region, and control over them is a part of the struggle for the operational initiative.

In general, the situation, even though it is still difficult, is obviously improving. In a number of areas, the militia are now on the offensive, while the Junta offensive has petered out and stoped almost everywhere.

 Original article: Colonel Cassad

Map of Operations, August 10-25, 2014 – Created by Kot Ivanov and Anthony Hartin

Translated by Daniel Mihailovitch
Edited by S. Naylor

Official Briefing from the DPR, as of August 25, 2014, and Commentary

Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal

From: Semen Semenchenko
(commander of the Ukrainian Donbass punitive battalion)

To: The Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Valeriy Geletey.

To the ATO(Anti-Terrorist Operation)* command. Despite the numerous warnings about the situation that is currently unfolding in sector B, despite the information from yesterday and today about the tank breakthrough from sector D and also from the border with the Russian Federation, from the area of Mospino, the situation with regards to sending us additional units of the UAF(Ukraine Armed Forces) was never resolved. Currently it is necessary to stop the retreat of the units that up until now covered our rear. Those units that report to your HQ, from the area of Kuteynikovo-Starobeshevo, must return the artillery and to perform a massive counterattack into the area [of the breakthrough], and to use armored vehicles in this attack. You do have these forces. If this does not get done and the situation will continue to deteriorate. I reserve the right to interpret the lack of activity of the UAF leadership in the most negative light. If needed – you personally must stand with a pistol on the road and take control of the situation. Act, finally, act! P.s. Please forgive me. I cannot write what exactly is happening right now. You are not the only one reading this.

 

Official DPR Briefing, as of August 25, 2014

Original: DNR.Today

In the course of the offensive operation, the militia forces have completely destroyed the government military base in Sedovo, and routed all the enemy checkpoints around Sedovo and Novoazovsk. There's an ongoing sweep of these two cities for remaining Junta forces. Taking control of Novoazovsk will open a direct road to Mariupol for the DPR army forces, and we plan to take this city in the near future.

Fierce fighting is happening near the Svyato-Uspensky Nikolo-Vasilyevsky monastery (village Nikolskoye of Volnovaha district). In the settlement of Markino there is fighting against the entrenched militants of the punitive battalions "Dnieper-1" and "Donbass". The LPR militia conducted a recon by combat action on Lutugino. There is information that the town of Rodakovo has been taken [by our units].

According to the data of the DPR Ministry of Defense HQ, the government forces lost 110 people KIA and 75 WIA fighting for Ilovaysk. 28 military vehicles were destroyed or disabled. By the morning of August 25th, yet another (third) battlegroup of the enemy was also fully encircled in the area of the settlements Stepanovka, Amvrosiyevka and Stepano-Krynka.

The whole night militia forces were focused on narrowing the encirclement around the two blockaded Ukrainian battlegroups in the area of the settlements Voykovsky, Kuteynikovo, Blagodatnoye, Alekseevskoye, Uspenka, Ulyanovskoye, and also near the settlement of Yelenovka. According to the intelligence reports, in these encirclements there are more than 40 tanks, about 100 IFVs, APCs and airborne IFVs, 50 MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System) "Grad" and "Uragan" vehicles, and more than 60 field artillery and mortar pieces.

As a result of a recon by combat action, detachments of the DPR army entered Yelenovka, destroying up to 8 tanks, up to 19 armored vehicles and a mortar battery. The enemy was pushed out of the two checkpoints on the road from Donetsk to this settlement (i.e. Yelenovka). Three prisoners were taken, three MT-12 anti-tank guns with ammunition, an MTLB APC with a ZU-23-2 mounted, and a GAZ-66.

The militia launched offensives on two major cities - Severodonetsk in the northwest of Lugansk region, and Debaltsevo - in east of Donetsk region. The militia is concentrating considerable forces by Lisichansk and Severodonetsk, on the outskirts of which (Severodonetsk) the LPR militiamen have already occupied the villages of Belaya Gora and Borovskoe. Offensive continues on all fronts.

PS. The last phrase is a joy to read. But, actually, the reports from the last 3-4 days are pleasant in every way. Having survived through the darkest days in mid-August, the militia managed to not only stop the advance of the junta, but to also launch a decisive counter-offensive with the goal of defeating the entire southern flank of the junta forces in Donbass. For now it is absolutely unclear when and with what forces will the junta try to break through to the surrounded forces south of Donetsk, and how control over their intercepted communications could be restored.

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About the Militia Counter-Offensive

Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal

1. The situation has become precarious for the Junta in the area of ​​Novoazovsk and Mariupol. The Militia forces that penetrated from the north, and also those that moved along the border with the Russian Federation, created an operational crisis in the area of Novoazovsk, which in itself implies a threat to Mariupol. The panic on the Junta-aligned websites is not without foundation. As we mentioned earlier, there are very few combat-capable units there - a hodgepodge of police, punitive troops, border guards and air defense personnel, clearly not the forces you can repel a serious Militia offensive with.

For now the Junta is saved by the fact that the Militia forces there are not so big and they are not achieving decisive results yet, although the threat has already become very serious. The thing is, that by taking advantage of the movement of Militia sabotage-reconnaissance-groups (SRGs) to the south of the captured "Uspenka" border checkpoint, the Militia also advanced along the border with Russia - which was cleared from the Junta border guards - creating a local superiority in a location that is critical for the Junta. This is the flip side of the Junta’s decision to stop fighting for the border, due to the heavy shelling of the Junta positions near the border by the Militia and "from the territory of the Russian Federation". Currently, the Junta faces a very unpleasant prospect - either it has to urgently find reserves for the new front that suddenly opened up, or else it risks losing Novoazovsk and may face a real threat of losing Mariupol. In general, this blow is very unpleasant for the Junta, and it is further complicated by the problems to the south of Donetsk.

2. The gap in the front to the south of Amvrosievka, which the Junta recklessly didn't plug for a few days, led to a disaster as expected. Not only did the Militia use the gap to advance to Uspenka and Novoazovsk and to create a threat for Mariupol. Also, the Junta units that were drawn into the battle for Ilovaysk have spent their reserves, which resulted in a Militia advance onto those Junta battle groups’ communications and the threat of attacking Militia units taking Amvrosievka. An encirclement of a kind emerged, which is already the 3rd encirclement in the south. Although this one is more of a partial encirclement - the Militia intercepted a number of important roads to the south of the main forces of the Junta battle group, but there's no talk yet about a complete encirclement across all paths, because the Militia are actually encircling a larger force with a smaller one. In the next few days the Junta will try to break out of this critical encirclement, but if they fail to do this, then the first two southern cauldrons will be chump change compared to this one.

3. The encirclement by Dyakovo is still not eliminated, the encircled forces were given standard terms - leave and be interned in Russia, handing over the vehicles and weapons – but their leadership refuses to accept those, for now. But overall, the elimination of that encirclement is just a matter of time and losses. Of course I would prefer for the Militia to get the vehicles.

In general, what is happening is indeed a counter-offensive, albeit with insufficient forces. However, the blow was dealt at the time when the Junta just suffered a defeat of its offensive towards Donetsk, and this counteroffensive immediately triggered a serious operational crisis for the Junta. The very nature of the events in the Donbass is changing and now the argument is starting to shift from “will Novorossiya survive?” to “what consequences will there be of the Junta’s defeat in Donbass?”;  including the question of “what borders would be the starting point of negotiation?”. Perhaps the first diplomatic overtures will happen tomorrow in Minsk.

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A Short but Important Update

Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal

1. About Strelkov: The news is ahead of the event. He got an offer to move in and become a military adviser in the Krasnodon HQ, but he did not yet agree to this. Someone apparently has seen it fit to leak the info to the press. What were the goals of this leak, good or bad, is yet unclear.

2. The Panic in Mariupol: As I wrote before, the threat on the outskirts of the city was multiplied by the confusion in the area, so when one of the Junta armored columns retreating from Novoazovsk was mistaken for Militia, this led to the hysteria of "DPR tanks are just about to roll into Mariupol!”

Hence the traffic jams of civilians and Junta soldiers at the highway to Berdaynsk; people thought Mariupol would be taken today and in a panic rushed out of the city. Interestingly, when it came to running, the nationalist guard units easily outpaced the civilians, leaving just one punitive battalion and the remnants of police forces to defend Mariupol. This story is very significant in the sense that it clearly shows how panic sweeps the entire management system - from the lowest neo-Nazi of the "Azov" battalion to the Gauleiter (chief overseer – Ger.) of Mariupol. In reality, advance Militia groups are fighting on the outskirts of Mariupol, and Junta is reporting that they are about to create a reliable line of defense and stop Militia forces from entering Mariupol (Novoazovsk is already written off, apparently).

3. South-west of Donetsk there is a gaping hole in the Junta frontline, with nothing available to close it. Most of the supply routes of the southern Junta battlegroup are intercepted by the Militia, or under fire and thus impassable. The Junta’s situation is rapidly deteriorating and can potentially develop into more than just another encirclement, with heavy losses - but a full-blown disaster with the collapse of the entire southern front of Junta forces in Donbass. In the next few days the Militiamen are expecting enemy reserves from the rest of Ukraine, which are now being hastily redeployed to reverse the effects of Militia breakthroughs. Given that the forces of Militia are not so large, heavy defensive battles against shock mechanized battle groups trying to break the encirclement are likely. As you can understand, there is no possibility of a continued assault on Donetsk anymore.

Taking this into account, the defeat of the Junta to the south of Donetsk will have implications for other areas - the Militia forces are moving towards Debaltsevo and thinking about attacking Artemovsk and Konstantinovka. But as the main forces are occupied in other areas, any action there is mainly just to pin Junta forces in place.

4. There is also this unverified information: In the Rostov region, there were a series of bizarre murders on the M4 highway. Unknown criminals lay out a strip with nails across the asphalt, and then shoot the drivers that come out to see what was the matter. They do not take the cars, or personal belongings of those killed. There were 3 or 4 such cases. There is a suspicion that there may be some Ukrainian Neo-Nazis at work. We are checking the information.

Overall, we are seeing the war in the Donbass completely change direction, in real time. But the victory is not yet assured, and in the coming days, the Junta will do everything possible to turn this difficult situation in their favor.

The Southern Front Catastrophe – August 27, 2014

Map of Operations, August 10-27, 2014 – Created by Kot Ivanov and Anthony Hartin

Novorossiya Military Briefing – Novorossiya Shall Be!

Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
Translated from Russian by Daniel Mikhailovich / Edited by Gleb Bazov

We are currently witnessing an epic and in its own way historic event. The Ukrainian regular army and the punitive battalions are suffering a catastrophic defeat to the south of Donetsk. Only a short time ago the Republics were in dire straits: the DPR was hanging only by a thin supply thread, which the Ukrainian army was attempting to sever near Shakhtersk and Krasnyi Luch; the summit of Saur-Mogila has been abandoned, and Bolotov's counteroffensive had failed to bring decisive victories.

To many it seemed that the Militia forces were on the ropes and just about to break, which would have led to the collapse of Novorossiya and a military victory for the fascist Junta. Nevertheless, the Militia managed to withstand the most severe blow, which the Junta dealt with all the forces available to it in the first half of August. The Junta did not conceal its plans, and the preparations for the assaults on Shakhtersk and Lugansk were openly discussed. The bravura level of the Junta’s triumphant reports that came with each new breakthrough of its mechanized battle groups was off the charts.

The first critical moment came when the soldiers of the 25th Airborne Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (“UAF”) and the units of the National Guard broke into Shakhtersk. In those days, the fate of the DPR was hanging literally by a thread, and the Junta was on the verge of a strategic victory. But those few militiamen that mired the Junta forces in urban battles and held their ground until the reinforcements arrived saved Novorossia from being dismembered into two parts. In subsequent battles, the Junta’s breakthrough was localized and defused, and, after sustaining heavy losses in personnel and military hardware, the Junta’s forces in this location were routed.

The second critical moment came when a strike was made from Debaltsevo through Fashchevka, intended to converge with the 24th Mechanized Brigade that was breaking out of the Southern Cauldron. It was an ambitious plan, whereby the enemy tried to bisect Novorossiya by using as a strike group the units that everybody assumed had been written off. This joint strike on Miusinsk and Krasnyi Luch triggered a severe crisis in Novorossiya because were very few troops in this area.

Miusinsk, which the mechanized convoys of the junta slipped through unhindered, was hardly defended at all, and in Krasnyi Luch some of the Cossacks abandoned their positions. This gave rise to a palpable threat of Novorossiya being split in two and of the militia grouping located in the area of Torez-Snezhnoye-Saur-Mogila being eliminated. But, once again, the courage of ordinary soldiers who clung to the towns of Krasnyi Luch and Miusinsk allowed the Militia units to hold out until the arrival of the reserves that aided in the purge of the enemy from these cities. Having overcome the crisis, here also the Militia was able to win decisive battles, which had far-reaching consequences.

Because the offensive on Yasinovataya failed, the breakthrough to Verkhnyaya Krynka and Zhdanovka aimed at cutting off Gorlovka was liquidated, and the Junta failed to advance toward Yenakievo, in the second half of August the Junta’s offensive started to run out of steam and the Militia gradually began to gain offensive momentum.

Objectively, the situation demanded that the Junta stop the offensive, regroup, pull up reserves, create stores of fuel and ammunition, and then continue the offensive by assembling new strike groups. Nevertheless, political considerations dictated a continuation of the offensive by the same depleted battle groups. Because the front in the LPR on the whole had stabilized, the South Cauldron was routed, and the offensive to the north of Donetsk had been stopped, the Junta continued its offensive in the south, trying to take Ilovaysk and Mospino head-on despite the serious operational risk. And as the more the Junta became embroiled in these battles, the narrower became the front of its offensive. Having begun in early August over a broad swath of the battlefront, already by August 20th the Junta’s offensive narrowed effectively to a single point.

The outer limits of this offensive were the southern slopes of Saur-Mogila, the semi-encircled Mospino and the southern suburbs of Ilovaisk. In the last few days of the offensive, it was reduced simply to a primitive frontal assault on Ilovaisk. Meanwhile, a threat that later proved to be fatal was looming on the Junta’s southern flank. Having finished off the Southern Cauldron and after repelling the offensive on Miusinsk and Krasnyi Luch, the Militia recaptured Marinovka (which in July-August twice went back and forth between the factions) and started to seep along the border toward the Uspenka border-crossing checkpoint, in the process encircling the Amvrosievka grouping.

It is difficult to say why the Junta did not react to this threat – it is possible that the Ukrainian command decided that the only danger in this area was the activity of the saboteur-reconnaissance groups (“SRG”), which, though unpleasant, carried no operational significance. Alternatively, they may have thought that they will manage to achieve success near Ilovaisk and then fend off the threat coming from the south. As a result, the Militia was able to accumulate a sufficient force to the south-east of Amvrosievka, and this force carried out a cleaving strike on the supply lines of the main forces of the Junta that were embroiled in the fighting near Ilovaisk, Mospino and Saur-Mogila. At the same time, the forces of the enemy advancinf from the south were met to the west of Mospino with a strike by a mechanized battle group of the Militia. The Junta did not expect this maneuver because until quite recently they were the ones trying to encircle Mospino from both sides.

By the looks of it, the Junta’s intelligence missed this offensive entirely, and as a result of this oversight a comparatively small Militia force intercepted the main supply routes of the largest battle group of the Junta to the south of Donetsk. This grouping was comprised of the enemy’s most combat-capable units involved in the assaults on Mospino, Saur-Mogila and Ilovaisk, including the three punitive battalions – Azov, Shahtersk and Donbass-1, as well as the various reinforcement units and independent companies. More than 5,000 soldiers, approximately 180 various armoured vehicles, and up to 90 artillery pieces, mortars, and MLRS ended up being surrounded.

Though the difference in scale makes a direct comparison impossible, the militia actually carried out a mini-“encirclement operation” similar to the Stalingrad Cauldron – a classic pincer strike in converging directions. While the Junta’s battle group had no Romanians or Italians on its flanks, but it did, instead, have a gaping hole on one side, and on the other side – barrier troops that were never meant to withstand an attack by mechanized units. As a result, in addition to the unfinished remnants of the Dyakovo Cauldron, the Amvrosiyevka Cauldron was created, around which the militia began to create a ring of encirclement, spreading its offensive to the south and to the south-west and in the process occupying settlements deep in the rear of the southern grouping of the Junta. At the same time, the enemy command structures rapidly disintegrated. Battalion Azov in essence refused to subordinate, and the majority of its troops fled to Mariupol. Battalions Donbass-1 and Shahtersk became mired in urban combat for Ilovaisk and, instead of breaking out of the cauldron, started to demand tanks and artillery from the military in order to continue their assault on the city, which by that time was pretty much a lost cause.

Because only rearguard unites without heavy weapons remained outside the cauldron, the Militia immediately began to develop the offensive to the south-west of Amvrosievka, toward Starobeshevo, and took it by the evening of August 26th. Meanwhile, militiamen were already moving toward Volnovakha on August 25th. Effectively, the loss of these centres means that here the Junta does not have positions from which it can try to break through to the surrounded forces. The encircled troops, in essence, ended up deep in the rear, far away from the new front line, and with a limited supply of fuel and ammunition.

And this new frontline is a gaping hole for the Junta, which has nothing to plug it with. The remnants of its forces, including Battalion Azov, fled to Mariupol, in the process abandoning several settlements virtually without a shot. As a result, the Militia rolled directly into the suburbs of Novoazovsk and onto the approaches to Mariupol. On the Junta’s side, there is virtually no front from the area south of Starobeshevo and up to Novoazovsk. The Milita’s lack of sufficient troops is the only thing slowing down the looming catastrophe.

At the same time, the Militia also developed its offensive to the west of Mospino, toward Ugledar, Yelenovka, and Nikolskoye. Here the forces of the Junta are few in number, so the Militia’s offensive has been developing quite successfully, albeit not too rapidly. Near Yelenovka, yet another "mini-cauldron" has formed, and the connectivity of the Junta groups that held Donetsk in semi-encirclement has been irreparably compromised.

The Junta has no reserves with which to relieve the encircled group and to patch the massive hole in the frontlines - they are now hastily withdrawing troops from Perekop (on the Crimean border) and bringing territorial battalions of questionable combat readiness to the front. They have also announced the 4th wave of mobilization and are trying quickly to drag ancient armoured vehicles from long-term storage to the frontlines, in order to compensate for the huge losses in personal and military hardware.

State Border of the Republic of Novorossiya

Overall, it still is not quite clear how the Junta intends to avoid a complete defeat here. It will clearly not be able to restore the previous frontline, and the only question is whether the surrounded troops will be able to break out (and as they will have to do so on their own, it is likely that they will have to make that decision as soon as possible), and where the Militia’s offensive will stop - they still have fairly limited forces and they are now routing a larger force with a smaller force.

In the meantime, the once-solid front, which stretched from Marinovka to Yelenovka has now broken up into separate pockets of resistance with intercepted supply lines. After this disaster it became absolutely clear that the Junta does not have the capacity to destroy Novorossiya. By squandering the most combat-capable brigades in systematic offensive operations, the Junta sustained enormous losses and at the same time suffered a crushing, purely military defeat. The southern front has collapsed. Novorossiya shall exist!