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Thursday, July 31, 2014

Thinking the unthinkable

Introduction

I have been putting off writing about this topic for a very long while.  In fact, I wrote several articles trying to explain the self-evident truism that the US/NATO/EU does not have a military option in the Ukrainian war.  First, in an article entitled Remembering the Important Lessons of the Cold War I tried to explain that the reason the Cold War did not turn into a hot, shooting, war is that both sides understood that they simply could never win and that any escalation in strikes and counter-strikes could very rapidly lead to a intercontinental nuclear war, something which neither side was willing to risk.   In a piece entitled Making Sense of Obama's Billion Dollar Hammer I tried to show that all the money the US will by pouring into "European security" is just a grandiose bribe for some European elites and that it had no real effect on the ground.  A few days later I posted an article entitled Why the US-Russian Nuclear Balance is as Solid as Ever in which I tried to dispel the myth prevalent in the West about the putative state of disrepair of the Russian military in general, and of the Russian nuclear forces in particular.  Lastly, in a piece entitled Short Reminder about US and Russian Nuclear Weapons I tried to show that in reality it was the US nuclear forces who were in a state of disrepair.  And over and over again, in many comments, I tried to lay out the reasons for which I simply did not believe that the US/NATO/EU would dare to attack Russia.  In summary, I will say this: the US is not nearly as powerful as the US propaganda claims.  Without going into long debates about what "victory" and "defeat" mean, I will just say that in my personal opinion the last time the US military fought well was in Korea, and even there it had to accept a draw.  After that, it was all downhill.  This is not the fault of the US solider, by the way, but by the fact that big money and politics got so heavily involved in the US military that they corrupted everything.  This is most evident in the USAF which still has superb pilots, but who are given a terrible choice: either fly on good but old aircraft or fly on new but terrible ones (I believe that given the choice, most would chose the former).  As for the European NATO allies, they are such a joke that they hardly deserve mention.  They even look bad on a parade.

As for a military option in the Ukraine, it appears unthinkable to me not only because, frankly, I don't see a single military in the West capable of taking on the Russian military in full-scale battle, but also because geography powerfully argues against such a crazy idea (the very same geography which would make it impossible for Russia to try to invade western or even central Europe).

And yet, something in all this very logical reasoning felt wrong to me.  A few days ago it finally hit me.  What bothered me was

The American Duck

Among the many beautiful and witty expressions and neologisms Americans use, I always loved this one: If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.  This so-called "Duck test" is funny, but it is also a powerful logical method which ended up chewing at me day after day after day.  Here I was, all sure and certain that the US/NATO/EU would never consider such a ludicrous notion as the one of an military attack on Russia or on Russian forces.  But kept hearing the voice of the American Duck telling me: look at what they are doing, what does that look like to you?  Suspend your conclusions and just tell me what are you observing?  Tell me, if they had decided to escalate to the point of a military confrontation with Russia, would they be doing things differently?  And a few days ago, I threw in the towel (at the duck, of course) and had to accept that while I did not know what they were thinking or what their intentions really were, it sure looked to me like the western plutocrats had decided to escalate the crisis has high as possible.

In truth, I have to admit that when I studied the theory of deterrence in the 1980 my teachers always insisted that this theory of deterrence was predicated on what they called a "rational player".  To put it simply - how do you deter a lunatic?  Or a desperate man with nothing to lose?  Or a person hell-bent on mutual destruction?  The truth is, you cannot.  Deterrence assumes a rational actor making a logical decision about unacceptable costs.  As far as I know, nobody has ever developed a theory of deterrence applicable to a madman.  When I initially wrote my pieces explaining why I believed that a US/NATO/EU attack was impossible a lot readers posted comments saying that while maybe the top US military command was still mainly composed of rational men, the US imperial elites had clearly gone crazy a long time ago and that they were so stuck in their arrogance, their imperial hubris, there delusion of invincibility and their knee-jerk and systematic use of violence that they could no more be considered as rational.  At the time I replied that, yeah, sure, maybe, but what is the point of analyzing something crazy.  How do you try to make sense of the suicidally insane?

And yet, this is what I propose to do today.  I will try as best I can to try to place myself in the mind of these lunatics and see what they could try doing, and what the consequences of that would be.  I will go through several possible plans that these crazies might have starting from the most limited one and then going up the insanity slope.

Plan one: a symbolic and limited intervention

This plan is already underway.  We know that there are US military advisers in the Ukraine, including at least one general, we know that the Dutch and Australians will be sending in a lightly armed force to "protect" the investigators at the crash site of MH17 (although how a few men armed with assault rifles can protect anybody from Ukie artillery, tank or mortar fire is anybody's guess).  Then there are all the reports of foreign mercenaries, mostly US and Polish, fighting with the Ukie death squads.  There is also some good evidence that Poland is sending military equipment, including aircraft and, possibly, crews.  Well, all of that is dumb and serves very little useful purpose, but that is what the West is so good at: pretending.  If this plans stays at this level I would say that it is not very important.  But, alas, there is a nastier possibility here:

Plan two: a tripwire force

This is just an extension of plan one: bring in a few  men, and then have them killed.  This would trigger the needed "popular outrage" (carefully fanned and reported by the corporate media) to force the Europeans to accept more US sanctions in Europe or even some kind of "EU-mandated" "peacekeeping force".  Of course, if the Russians or the Novorussians do not take the bait and fail to kill the "observers", US/NATO false flag teams could easily do that.  Just imagine what a heavy-mortar strike on a building with these OSCE observers would look like.  The junta in Kiev would be more than happy to "invite" such a "peacekeeping" force into Novorussia and since this would be an "invited" force, no UNSC Resolution would be needed.  Finally, such a "peacekeeping" force would be regularly reinforced and augmented until it could basically cover the flanks of the Ukies in their attacks against Novorussia.  This force would also assume the command and control of Ukie forces, something which the Ukies could greatly benefit from (their current command and control is a mess).

Plan One and Plan Two assume that Russian forces stay on the other side of the border and that the only opposition to such a deployment could come from the Novorussians.  But what if the Russians decided to move into Novorussia either to protect the locals or stop his limited US/NATO/EU "peacekeeping force"?  Then the US/NATO/EU would have to take a dramatic escalatory step send in a much bigger force, more capable of defending itself.

Plan three: UPROFOR on the Dniepr?

This is the Yugoslav scenario.  The West would send in something on the order of 10 battalions which would each be given an area of responsibility for "peacekeeping".  Then police forces would be also sent to "maintain law and order" and EU commissars would be sent in to "help" the local population "express their will" and "organize" a local government.  Soon there would be some kind of EU-run election and all the Novorussian forces would be declared "bandits" from which the local population need to be "protected".  Since Strelkov himself fought in Yugoslavia, as did many other Russians, I don't believe that the Russians or Novorussians would fall for this one.  I think that Russia would express its opposition to such a plan and that if she was ignored, she would move in her own forces along the line of contact.

This might be the US/NATO/EU endgoal: to create a Korea like "line of demarcation" which would isolate the Donetsk and Lugansk People's republics from the rest of Novorussia and the rest of the Ukraine, this would mean getting plenty of Kosovo-like "Camp Bonsteels" all along the Russian border and it would make it looks like the "Wartime President of the One Indispensable Nation" "stopped the Russian Bear".  Finally, it would create a perfect Cold War like environment in which the western 1%ers could continue to exploit the 99% while constantly scaring them with the "Russian threat".

Plan four: Operation Storm in Novorussia and Crimea?

I would not put it past the folks in the Pentagon and Mons to try to pull off an "Operation Storm" in Novorussia and even possibly Crimea.  That is the scenario Glazev fears: the US/NATO/EU would put enough forces inside the Ukraine to allow it to survive long enough to mobilize a sufficient number of men and equipment for a lightening fast attack in Novorossia and even possibly Crimea.  And, in theory, if we assume the Banderstan does not collapse under its own weight and the economic disaster, the Ukraine has the resources to mobilize far more men and equipment that the tiny People's Republics of Donestk and Lugansk or even Crimea.  But that, again, assumes that Russia will let that happen, which she won't, so now we have to look at the really crazy plans:

Plan five: First "Desert Steppe Shield" then "Desert Steppe Storm"

That is a crazy notion: to do with Russia what the US did with Iraq.  First, to place down a "protection force" in the Ukraine, isolate Russia, and then attack in a full-depth and full-scale determined attack.  We are definitely talking about a continental war with a fantastic potential to turn into a world war.  This plan would have be based on two crucial assumptions:

1) The US/NATO/EU conventional forces would be capable of defeating the Russian military.
2) If facing conventional defeat, Russia would not use nuclear weapons.

I think that both of these assumptions are deeply mistaken.  The first one is based on a mix of propaganda, bean counting and ignorance.  The propaganda is something which western military are very good.  They are not.  Most western armies are a pathetic joke, and those who can fight well (the Brits, the Turks) are too little to matter.  That leaves the US military which have capabilities far in excess of what its NATO allies can muster.  Just as in WWII all the serious fighting had to be done by German units, in case of a WWIII (or IV?) all the serious fighting would have to be done by Americans.  The problem is that the Americans would have an extremely hard time bringing in enough forces to really make the difference.  In any case, I have the biggest doubt about the current fighting capabilities of the US Army and Marine Corps.  Faced with a Russian battalion defending its own soil I think that an equivalent USA/Marine force would get slaughtered.

The "bean counting" is when you compare all the NATO APCs or tanks to the number available to the Russian military.  The corporate media loves this kind of charts in which soldiers, APCs, tanks, aircraft and other gear are compared.  Professional analysts never use them simply because they are meaningless.  What matters is how much of that gear is actually available for battle, the kind of tactics used, the training and morale of the soldiers, the skills of their commanding officers, and stuff which is *never* mentioned: supplies, logistics, petroluem, lubricants, ammunition, lines of supply, medical standards, even food and weather.  Bean counters simply never see that.  But one could argue that the number of trucks is more important to a military than the number of tanks.  Yet trucks are never counted.  But yes, on paper NATO looks huge.  Even though most NATO gear could not even survive your average Ukrainian road, nevermind the winter. 

But let us assume that the Hollywood image of the US military is true: invincible, best trained, best armed, with a fantastic morale, led by the very best of the best officers, it would easily defeat the primitive Russian military, armed with antiquated weapons and commanded by fat drunken generals.  Okay, and then what?  If is the official Russian nuclear deterrence doctrine that in this case Russia would use nuclear weapons.  Since even in Hollywood movies nobody makes the claim that the US anti-missile systems could stop Iskanders, cruise missiles or even gravity bombs, we would have to accept that the invincible US force would be turned into radioactive particulates and, that, in turn, would leave the US President two terrible choices: a) take the loss and stop b) retaliate and the second option would have to include the location from where the strike came from: Russia proper.  That, of course, would place the following choices for the Russian President: a) take the loss or b) strike at the continental United States.  At this points nuclear mushrooms would start appearing all over the map.

Now please make no mistake:  Russia can not only destroy Mons, the Pentagon and Cheyenne Mountain (just a matter of placing enough warheads on the right spot), but also every single major city in the United States.  Sure, the USA can retaliate in kind, but what kind of consolation would that be for anybody left?

I cannot believe that the US deep state would truly, deliberately, want to start a planetary nuclear war.   For one thing, US leaders are cowards and they will not want to take such a monumental decision.  A far more likely version is that being stupid, arrogant and cowards they will stumble upon just that outcome.  Here is how:

Plan six: American football's "Hail Mary"

In American football there is a specific pass which is used only when seconds are left on the clock and your teams is badly losing anyway.  Basically it works like this: every single person who is not defending the quarterback rushes to the endzone, as do all the defenders, and the quarterback then just throws the ball straight into that zone with the very slim hope that one of his own players will catch it and score a touchdown.    This is called a "Hail Mary" for very good reason as only a miracle makes such a desperate plan work.  Most of the time the ball is either fumbled or caught by the other team.  But, very rarely, it works (see here).

I can  very much imagine a desperate Obama trying to show the American people that he "has hair on his chest" and that he is not going to let "regional power" challenge the "indispensable nation".  So what he and, really, his administration risks doing is the following: to play a game of chicken hoping against all odds that the Russian will yield.  This is my worst nightmare and the worst possible assumption to make because Russia cannot yield.

In March of this year I issued a warning which I entitled "Obama just made things much, much worse in the Ukraine - now Russia is ready for war".  What prompted me to issue that warning was the fact that the Council of the Russian Federation has just unanimously passed a resolution allowing Putin to use Russian armed forces in the Ukraine.  Since, this resolution has been repealed at Putin's request and for obvious political motives, but the mood, the determination is still there.  In fact, I think that it has grown much stronger.

There has been much useless speculation about Putin, his motives and his strategy.  This is way bigger than just Putin.  If the US/NATO/EU really push too far, and that includes a genocide in Novorussia, an attack on Crimea or an attack on Russian forces, Russia will go to war, Putin or no Putin.  And Putin knows that.  His real base of support is not in the Russian elites (who mostly fear him), but in the Russian people (with whom his current rating are higher than ever before).  And Putin himself openly spoke about the "threats to Russian sovereignty" though he did add that because of the Russian nuclear forces there was, in his opinion, no immediate threat to the Russian territory.

If the US decides to play a game of chicken with Russia, then it will do the same thing as a car driver playing a game of chicken against an incoming train: regardless of the train's driver, the train is on tracks and its momentum is too big: it cannot stop or veer away.

The problem is that the USA has a long record of making absolutely irresponsible statements which end up putting them into a corner from which they cannot bulge without losing face.  Just look at the MH17 disaster: the Obama administration immediately rushed to blame the Russians for it, but what will it do when the evidence to the contrary comes out?  What if Obama also draws a red line somewhere (it does not really matter where) and then forces Russia to cross it?

Sadly, I can imagine the USA declaring that the US/NATO will defend the Ukie airspace.  I think that they are dumb enough to try to seize a Russian ship entering or leaving the Black Sea.  Remember - these are the folks who hijacked the aircraft of Bolivian President Evo Morales to try to find Snowden on board.  These are the folks who regularly kidnap Russian citizens worldwide (the last time the son of a well-know Russian member of Parliament who was kidnapped in the Maldive Islands).  And, of course, these are the folks who did 9/11.  Their arrogance knows no limits because they are profoundly evil sociopaths.  For them the organization of false flag operations is a normal, standard, procedure.  They almost triggered a war between the DPRK and South Korea by sinking a South Korean military vessel.  They used chemical weapons in Syria not once, but several times.  And the last time we had a Democrat in the White House, he was crazy enough to send two US Aircraft Carrier Groups into the Strait of Taiwan to threaten China.

My biggest fears

This is my biggest fear: some kind of desperate "Hail Mary" maneuver in which the US will try to convince Russia that "look, we are crazy enough to start this thing, so you better back off" not realizing that Russia cannot back off.  The other thing which really scares me is that during the Cuban Missile Crisis everybody was aware of the stakes and most people were truly terrified.  Now, thanks to the propaganda of the corporate media, almost nobody is afraid and hardly anybody is paying attention.  Russia and the USA are on a clear collision course and nobody cares!  How come?

Because if 9/11 proved anything is that there are things which most people are simply unwilling to contemplate, no matter how close and real they are.  It would only make sense that the Empire of Illusion would be populated by a people in total denial.  After all, illusion and denial usually go hand in hand.

Most of you, dear readers and friends, seem to be sharing with me a sense of total distrust in the sanity of our leaders.  When I asked you whether you believed that the US/NATO were crazy enough to use military forces against Russia, an overwhelming number of you answered that "yes" and a good part of you was even emphatically sure of that.  Why?  Because we all know how crazy and deluded are Imperial Overlords are.  Crazy and deluded enough not to quality as "rational actor"?  Crazy and deluded enough to play a game a chicken with a train?  Crazy and deluded enough to risk the planet on "Hail Mary?  Alas, I think that this is a very real possibility.

But what does Uncle Sam really want?

There is a gradual realization in Russia that for Uncle Sam this is not about the Ukraine.  It is about Russia and, specifically, about regime change in Russia.  A vast majority of Russian experts seem to believe that the US wants to overthrow Putin and that this entire war in the Ukraine is a means to achieve that.  As a very cynical joke going around now says "Obama is willing to fight Putin down to the very last Ukrainian".  I think that this is correct.  The US hopes that one of the following will happen:

1) A Russian military intervention in Novorussia which will allow the US to restart a Cold War v2 on steroid and which will also fully re-enslave Europe to the USA.  Putin would then be blamed for falling in the US trap

2) The creation of a US-run "Banderastan" in the Ukraine.  That would 'contain' and destabilize Russia.  Again, Putin would be blamed for letting that happen.

3) A "nationalist Maidan" in Russia: this is what is behind the current Putin-bashing campaign in the blogosphere: to paint Putin as a weak and/or corrupt man, who traded Crimea for the Donbass (you know the tune - these folks even comment on this blog).  These efforts are supported and, sometimes, even financed by Russian oligarchs who have a great deal of money involved in the EU and who really don't need the current tensions.  Here Putin would be blamed for not doing enough.

In all three cases, Putin would risk a (patriotically) color coded revolution which would, inevitably, bring either crazy rogue ruler  or a clueless fossil to power (a la Zhirinovsky or Zuiganov) or, much better, a pro-American "liberal" (a la Medvedev).  I think that all of these plans will fail.

Putin will not give Uncle Sam the intervention he wants.  Instead, Russia continue to support the Resistance in Novorussia until Banderastan goes "belly up", i.e. for another 30-60 days or so.  As for the "nationalist Maidan", the Russian people see straight through this "black PR campaign" and their support for Putin is higher than it ever was. It's not Putin who does not want to intervene overtly in the Donbass, it is the Russian people.  The attempts at stirring up anti-Putin by first stirring-up anti-Strelkov feelings have completely failed and, in fact, they have backfired.  A lot of these "hurray-patriots" are now overly called "useful idiots" for the CIA or even provocateurs.

Finally, while they are at this point in time only rumors, there seems to be more and more specialists of the opinion that MH17 was a deliberate false flag by the US.  If the news that the Ukies did it ever becomes public, then the entire destabilization plan will go down the tubes.  At this point, I would not put anything, no matter how crazy, past the US deep-state.

And that is a very scary thought.

The Saker

Urgent statement of Strelkov and Antiufeev

Two Choices to the Ukrainian Conscription - Nikolai Starikov - 26 Jul 2014

Please press on the 'cc' button on the lower right corner of the video to see the English subtitles

The Ignominious Conclusion of the Kiev Junta's July Offensive, July 30, 2014

The Ignominious Conclusion of the Kiev Junta's July Offensive, July 30, 2014

Original: IAC Cassad - M.V. Litvinov
translated by
Gleb Bazov

 
The Conclusion of July Activity


As could have been expected, the last weekend of July was marked by yet another offensive gamble by the Kiev regime. More precisely, there were, in fact, two such offensive gambles. At the same time, it must be noted that the second one, to which observers paid less attention, was in no way less dangerous to the Militia than the one that occupied the primary spot in the propagandistic efforts of the informational support specialists of the punitive corps. Both operations were gambles for the simple reason that they were constructed solely on the basis of the punitive forces’ firm belief in their operational-tactical superiority over the Militia and in reliance on their absolute certainty in the Militia’s inability to render in any way stubborn resistance. 



It must further be noted that throughout the entire month of July, the command of the punitive forces failed to achieve any operational-tactical successes that went beyond capitalizing on the inevitable consequence arising from the withdrawal of the Militia from the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk defence area. Simply speaking, the punitive forces were able to occupy only that, which they were simply obligated to take control of after Slavyansk was abandoned.


In view of their numerical and technical superiority, the Ukrainian military formations have a plethora of advantages in a transition from positional to maneuverable warfare. However, the most interesting outcome of the latest July escalation in the operational situation is perhaps the fact that the talentless operations of the Ukrainian military formations once again created the preconditions for the emergence of a positional front. Only time will tell whether or not the command of the Militia will manage to take full advantage of the developing circumstances. 


The Kiev Junta's Offensive Against the Donetsk People's Republic
 

The first direction of the punitive forces’ offensive became the advance in the Shakhtersk-Torez area from the north and from the south, the aim of which was to cut off the main lines of communication between Donetsk and Lugansk and the Russian border. This operation became perfectly obvious immediately following the withdrawal from Slavyansk, and it is then when attention was drawn to the reality of the checkpoints of the punitive forces being established in this region. It was also noted then that this operation is quite feasible, in contrast to the ambitions plans involving a breakthrough around Lugansk or the assaults on Atratsit or Snezhnoye. One can wonder why this operation began on July 27th, rather than on July 8th.
 

The growing threat in this direction was obvious. Already on June 21st the command of the DPR Militia reacted quite nervously to the information about the appearance of the tanks of the punitive forces in Debaltsevo (as nervously as it previously reacted to the attacks by crime bosses on Artemovsk). And this reaction undoubtedly was noticed by the command of the punitive corps. At the headquarters of the punitive forces, a new hope was born that a breakthrough in the Debaltsevo-Shakhtersk direction will lead to the Militia’s withdrawal from Donetsk, just like it happened in Slavyansk. From this moment on the command of the punitive forces began to concentrate all available troops for a new offensive. These plans were constantly frustrated by the unexpected for the punitive forces actions of the Severodonetsk Commandant’s Office, by the LPR counterattack in Lisichansk and by the decisive actions of the Slavyansk Brigade in the area of the “Marinovka Corridor”, resulting in it being completely closed on June 26th.

Despite all these difficulties, the punitive forces placed their main bet on a breakthrough in the Debaltsevo-Shakhtersk direction. And, on July 23rd, they commenced battles for the staging areas of this offensive – Debaltsevo and Blagodatnoye. On July 24th, they managed finally to secure control over Blagodatnoye; however, the battles for Debaltsevo did not give the desired effect – they continued failing to oust from the village the staunchly defending Militia units.


Faced with this situation, the command of the punitive corps decided to repeat the approach that previously brought it success in Artyomovsk, and in the night of July 26th-27th bypassed Debaltsevo with the tactical battalion group of the 95th Aeromobile Brigade and assaulted Shakhtersk. As far as can be told, the DPR Militia, absorbed in the fighting for the Marinovka Corridor and for Debaltsevo, did not expect this move. The maneuver was a complete success. The reason for this success is that the DPR Militia, insofar as it seeks to maintain a continuing line of front, does not have the ability to garrison key settlements located beyond the line of defence with forces sufficient for successful defence.

The Militia had no more than one company in Shakhtersk; moreover, these troops were not concentrated in a fist, but instead were dispersed throughout checkpoints. At the same time, it is necessary to have least 200-300 fighters to repel an attack on a settlement by a tactical battalion group. And, in general, the minimum necessary garrison for such a settlement is 500 fighters.The main forces of the 2nd and the 3rd Battalions of the Slavyansk Brigade were located to the south of the Torez-Shakhters-Zugres-Kharzysk line.
As a result, meeting practically no resistance, the punitive forces established company strongpoints in the areas of Gornoye and Olchovchik, thereby cutting off the shortest routes from Donetsk to Snezhnoye. The forces of the Militia at that moment were fettered by attacks coming from the front in the area of Stepano-Krynka. And although the attacks of the punitive forces in this area were repulsed, the punitive troops in Shakhters merged with the main forces of the Amvrosievka grouping of the Ukrainian armed formations that came up from the side of Blagodatnoye.


The DPR Militia ended up in a very difficult situation. Its forces were split apart. Communications to the north, of course, were maintained, and to cut them off the punitive forces would have needed at least three free battalions, which the Ukrainian armed formations did not have available. However, that was not the problem. The withdrawal from Slavyansk placed a heavy psychological burden on the shoulders of the DPR Militia. “The enemy is too strong; it is too well armed.” And it is this mental attitude that became the main obstacle to the transition of the confrontation again to the positional phase. The Militia needed to make a stand somewhere; it needed to win a psychological victory over the punitive forces and to break the enemy’s will to attack. It seemed that there would again be a retreat, and that a decisive battle would come later.


But then the talentless command of the punitive corps did a favour for the DPR Militia. Rather than being satisfied with their success, pulling up artillery and digging into the ground at the newly acquired positions, it decided to finish DPR once and for all. And on July 28th it commenced a new offensive. Bypassing Torez, the punitive forces rushed from Gornoye through Manuylovka and Petrovskoye into the rear of Saur-Mogila. From Semenovskaya and Tarany, their armoured columns rushed toward Stepanovka and Marinovka. Their most battle-worthy units located in the Southern Cauldron attempted a breakout from Djakovo in the direction of Dibrovka and, from there, toward Dmitrovka and Chervonnaya Zarya. All the artillery was aimed at Saur-Mogila in an attempt to suppress the Militia’s artillery battery.


But the DPR Militia, and, first and foremost, its Slavyansk Brigade, managed to withstand this assault, in the process retaining all the key settlements. The successes of the punitive forces were limited to yet another occupation of the village of Saurovka, which the Kiev propagandists quickly renamed Saur-Mogila, and the displacement of the Militia from Dmitrovka. The punitive forces were even unable to forge a corridor to the south of Marinovka. But the main thing was that the Militia withstood the strike of the 250-vehicle armoured armada of the Ukrainian regular army. In the course of these battles, the Militia has proven, first and foremost to itself and its command, that it is capable of withstanding an assault of such magnitude.

The command of the punitive forces was unable to transfer reserves from the north. Bogged down in the fighting on the approaches to Gorlovka and in Debaltsevo, and fettered by a counterstrike in Popasnoye and, on the part of the LPR Militia, an assault near Depreradovka, aimed at the rear of the Debaltsevo grouping, it had no available troops. The final effort of the punitive corps on July 29th allowed them to enter Stepanovka, but, on the very same day, the DPR Militia punched a corridor in Shakhtersk through to Torez.
The July offensive of the punitive corps on the territory of the DPR has petered out. Despite the fact that the situation remains exceedingly difficult, due primarily to the numerical and technical superiority of the punitive forces, and despite the regular terroristic shelling of the DPR cities, the DPR Militia has been able to create the preconditions for a transition to positional fighting in the sections of the front selected by the Militia. 


The Kiev Junta's Offensive Against the Lugansk People's Republic
 

The situation in the Lugansk area was developing in a less dramatic fashion, even if the danger to the Militia that it carried was no less significant. The key point in the LPR defence is the settlement of Novosvetlovka to the south-east of Lugansk. The settlement itself is not large, but all the roads leading to Izvarino pass through it. Its loss would cut off not only Krasnodon, but also the main highway to the Russian border. Certainly, its loss would not result in a catastrophe, but it would significantly complicate the situation in Lugansk.
Starting on July 27th, the command of the punitive corps undertook several attempts to break through to this settlement from the side of the Lugansk airport, as well as from the area of Lutugino, through Pervozvanovka and Krasnoye. Airstrikes were conducted on Novosvetlovka. However, in the end, the LPR Militia utterly defeated the 24th Territorial Defence Battalion Aidar, along with the supporting units of the 1st Separate Tank Brigade [“OTBR”] and the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade [“OMBR”]. The punitive forces sustained significant losses not only in terms of killed and wounded, but also captured soldiers.


The reason why the success achieved by the Militia here did not entail such dramatic twists and turns as the one near Donetsk is that the LPR defence is built on proactively taking control with sufficient forces even of key settlements that are not subjected to direct threat, often to the detriment of control over connectedness and continuity of communications. What enable the command of the LPR Militia to adhere to such a tactic is its advantageous position with respect to the Russian border.

On the same day, July 27th, the command of the LPR Militia continued to apply pressure to the isolated garrisons of the punitive forces in the area of Krasnodon, where the remnants of the units of the 51st OMBR are being finished off, and in the are of the Dolzhanskiy border crossing checkpoint, where the liquidation of the Ukrainian Border Guard Service [“GPSU”] garrison is being completed.


On the following day, July 28th, the command of the LPR Militia enhanced its positions, continuing to develop its success – it took control of the key strategic height near Georgievka and developed its proactive maneuvers to the west, in the direction of the settlement of Cheluskinets. Accordingly, in the Lugansk area the Militia was able to maintain its key positions and to prevent the Lugansk airport from being de-blockaded. This course of events signifies that also in this region the necessary preconditions for the transitioning of the hostilities to a positional phase have developed.


At this moment, the least stable situation continues to persist in the Pervomaisk-Stakhanov-Bryanka-Alchevsk-Krasniy Luch strip. Here the outcome of hostilities has not been determined, and significant changes to the positions of the warring sides remain possible. Likewise, changes of any kind cannot be excluded in the area of the crash of the Malaysian Boeing. 


Author: M.V. Litvinov

President Vladimir Putin Speaks: US Sanctions and Ukraine, July 2014

The consent of Germany to economic sanctions against Russia will change Putin's position and will accelerate Novorossiya's victory

by Pyotr AKOPOV

translated by 'A'

In the global conflict of Russia and the USA which consequence war in Ukraine turned out to be also, there is an important change which will affect all fronts where Russia resists to atlantist. Germany, some months resisting to pressure of the USA, conceded and agreed to enter economic sanctions. This step seriously will influence Putin's tactics in the Ukrainian events.

It is quite probable that sectoral sanctions against Russia will be agreed on Tuesday at a meeting of constant representatives of EU countries and will mention finance, power, arms, production of a dual purpose. If offers of European Commission are accepted, already in the next few days they will be approved at meeting of Council of EU. About introduction of new sanctions against Russia it was spoken and during Obama's conversation with leaders of England, France, Germany and Italy.

Last week there were doubts that Anglo-Saxons will manage to press through Germany, but statements of the German ministers and industrialists practically don't leave in recent days doubts that Berlin "ripened". Germany approves introduction of sectoral sanctions against Russia, the representative of the government of Germany declared on Monday to Christiana Virtts: "The government supports a concrete sectoral package of measures". And the president of Federal association of the German industry Ulrich Grillo told that it supports sanctions: "Policy time came".

Considering that Germany was the main obstacle for introduction of sectoral sanctions, now they become almost inevitable. It is clear that their first portion can be rather limited both on scale, and on time, but that the USA after all could force Europeans is important to join their policy not only political, but also the economic pressure and isolation of Russia, following which, Washington expects to force Moscow to give up on Ukraine. The rupture of Europe with Russia becomes even more important in the light of transatlantic partnership actively advanced by the USA, that is attempt to create the common Atlantic market, having connected two largest economic zones of the world and having put them under the Anglo-Saxon management. Thus, the decision of Germany and EU becomes truly historical – from the category such which define the direction and a history course.

Vladimir Putin also proceeded from such understanding of a role of Berlin, defining tactics of actions of Russia everything the last months when the Ukrainian crisis took already the form of real war. Putin threw down a challenge of the USA and to the Anglo-Saxon global project – without having attached the Crimea, and much earlier, having returned to the Kremlin in 2012. Attempt to take away Ukraine from the Russian world was the main answer of the West to return of Russia in big game. But from the very beginning of a sharp phase of the Ukrainian crisis Russia tried not only to prevent "stealing of Ukraine", but also to play on contradictions in the West – considering that interests of the USA and Europe, first of all Germany, don't coincide at all. Certainly, Putin didn't create illusions on independence of Germany – Germany represents the state with the limited sovereignty (and not only because of entry into the military block of NATO, and owing to a number of the obvious and secret mechanisms allowing Anglo-Saxons to control elite of this largest country of Europe). But he staked on acceleration of process of gradual release of Germans from dense Atlantic guardianship – the process, going already many years and gaining strength even before the Ukrainian crisis.

National conceiving part of the German elite perfectly understands that our two countries are objective partners the normal relations between which do a situation in Europe steady practically to any manipulations of Anglo-Saxon geopoliticians. Also remembers what exactly the wrong assessment of Russia from Germany (and in many respects thanks to suggestions of island strategists) twice for the last century led the country to national accident. There are no doubts that Anglo-Saxons are ready and to push off our two countries for the third time, having set Germany on Russia – this time economically. But in process of collecting of big Europe going now interests of Germany which in every possible way insists on deepening of political integration, in a root contradict interests of Anglo-Saxon globalizator which want to see in the European Union not independent, especially kontinentalno, German - the focused force, and obedient east wing of global "West", own world project.

Independence of Germany, as well as construction on this base of the building of the independent European Union, it is possible only when forming not hostile, partnership with Russia. With big Russia which will inevitably restore the borders and influence, let and in the form of the Euroasian union. And the global Berlin axis – Moscow – Beijing is at all capable to move the center of gravity in world geopolitics to the Euroasian continent, having buried present hegemonic claims of atlantist.

Crisis round Ukraine became manifestation of all these contradictions – it aggravated them and raised an edge many questions which in a peace time could be solved more slowly. Moscow staked on that the American game in isolation of Russia becomes the catalyst of process of emancipation of Germany. Certainly, nobody counts on a prompt gap – Putin's purpose was to achieve a conditional neutrality of Germany (so and Europe) in the conflict of Russia and the USA. For the sake of it Russia was ready to go to a lot of things – except, of course, delivery of national interests and refusal of fight for Ukraine. But peace, neutral Ukraine quite could would like to become for the next years a form of the Russian-European cooperation – if Europe was ready to define itself the policy concerning Kiev and would refuse support of plans of the USA on pull-in of Ukraine under the Atlantic umbrella. Alas, both in Brussels, and in Berlin weren't ready to admit that simple fact that Russia won't allow secession of part of the Russian world under the guise of eurointegration. The German dreams of fertile Ukrainian soil ("Chernozem"), desire to create one more buffer state under control of Germans and separating them from Russia , – all this together with urgings and manuals from Washington moved original national interests and cool calculation. It won't be possible for USA to tear off Ukraine from Russia – neither with help of Germany, nor without it. But to quarrel Germany with Russia is quite possible for Americans. That, as a matter of fact, they want to achieve. Really, after all, even in case of loss of Ukraine by them (that American realistic strategists are ready for long ago) Washington will have pleasant and very big prize – the possibility of the German-Russian rapprochement broken for many years. From the very beginning of the Crimean events Putin understood that chances of split of Germany and the USA are minimal – but they were, and he absolutely prudently tried to play on it. The intrigue with the German approval of sanctions and connection to blockade lasted some months and became one of the most intense secret fights in world history. Russia initially didn't do the main rate on disintegration of the united western front – we at once declared that in case the USA and EU will really try to organize isolation and blockade, we are ready to develop to the East and the South. Especially as Russia will build new, world architecture alternative to Anglo-Saxons – together with the absolute majority of the world community which long ago was already waiting the one who will throw down a challenge to owners of the Globalist Project.

Attack of the USA on Russia is not caused by Ukraine – on the contrary, the Ukrainian crisis turned out to be only consequence of America's desire to hold on the escaping world hegemony, to prevent restoration of historical Russia, the only force in the world, capable openly resist to the Anglo-Saxon project. Liberation of Germany from guardianship of atlantist is postponed, but not cancelled – if, of course, to recognize that the German people has the right for own future and wants to save itself from dissolution in a melting copper of globalization. But at this stage Germans (their elite is more exact) made the choice – and Russia is ready to resist to a uniform position of the West, continuing both to defend the national interests, and to increase approach on the world scene, building the front from civilizations and the states interested in new rules of global game. One of the most important consequences of policy of Putin on the German front was that with Novorossiya Moskva officially took a non-interference position in a situation – not to facilitate the USA their work on arm-twisting of Germany. Now the situation changes – Europe, that is Berlin, declares Russia war, let and economic, let and with reservations. In the war other laws work already, and Germans shouldn't be surprised when it will become clear that their decision to join the American blockade of Russia will lead to that Moscow recognizes Novorossiya soon.

And toughening of economic sanctions will lead not to a collapse of the Russian economy, but to fall of the Kiev's regime. In this world everything is connected, after all Vladimir Putin wasn't tired to remind it all the time to Berlin.


original Russian article: http://rusvesna.su/recent_opinions/1406607869

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

July 30th Combat SITREP by Juan

Information from very reliable sources. These sources are in Novorossiya, Russian Federation, EU and Ukraine:

29.07.2014 in afternoon Ukraine time 4 SS-21 Tochka tactical ballistic missiles were fired by Ukraine Armed Forces. At least two were clearly aimed at Saur Moglia with the idea of the Ukes trapped in The Cauldron having a sudden escape route opened for them. Moments before launch Russian Federation units surged toward the border at The Cauldron area and to the north of The Cauldron.

None of the 4 Tochka missiles reached their targets. I repeat, none of the 4 Tochka missiles reached their targets and none impacted with the ground anywhere that can be found in anything close to one piece. As you know this missile can carry a tactical nuke, chem/bio, cluster munition or HE in the weight of just under 500 kilos.

When the 4 missiles failed to reach their targets the Armed Forces of RF immediately halted their surge and held position. They are in the same positions 30.07.2014.

There has been a noticeable slow down of fighting activity since the launches and Strelkov has pointedly said again that Novorossiya is open to negotiations.

The 4 Tochka missiles were shot down over Novorossiya territory occupied by Ukraine Armed Forces before the missiles reached their programmed height. They were shot down from inside RF according to normally reliable sources. No visual evidence has been provided of RF shooting down the Tochka systems nor of the system used to shoot down the Tochka missiles.


Juan

1989, The year when the West did everything wrong, by Filo

We are pleased to publish this first testimony of a francophone reader of vineyardsaker. Filo is of Yugoslavian origin. He emigrated to the West in the 70s, and tells us of his disillusionment on the Western model as well as that of an entire people.

The French Saker Editors


1989, The year when the West did everything wrong, by Filo
I was born, a long time ago, in a country that was said to be situated between two blocks: that of the East and that of the West. A non aligned country. Above all, an untroubled and peaceful country. I was born and lived there the first twenty years of my life. Enough for me to be able to perceive and understand the life of my country, engage in my studies and in my first experiences.

Monastery of Gornjak, in Serbia (14th century)
As early as 1960, socialist Yugoslavia was been forced by the West and the IMF to open itself to market economy, and to start making economic reforms. Poorly prepared and ill protected, State companies rapidly went into an economic crisis. Mass unemployment appeared. In short we became an easy prey, exploitable at will. The country was invaded by entrepreneurs and businessmen from Germany, Austria, Netherlands, Switzerland, all attracted by low cost manpower.

Many Yugoslavians became « gastarbeiters », immigrant workers. When this situation reached its apex, there were in the West up to 2.5 million Yugoslavian workers according to estimates.

In 1970, I was among those who followed the course of it. I landed in the middle of an economic boom. I remember, my eyes wide open, being astonished by all of these ostentatious signs of wealth, by the presence of banks everywhere.

Although I was not born within capitalism, a question worried me: how can all of these banks be profitable? I finally understood, much later. I will not say more about it now because I would like to keep this topic for another article.

Inevitably, I compared this new world I was discovering to the world I had just left. I was first struck by the amount of falsehood and manipulation in the written or broadcast media. These media were full of glorification of the Western society, undoubtedly presented as being superior in every aspect. The others, Eastern countries, were systematically criticized and slandered. Yugoslavia often was simply lumped together with the other countries of the Eastern block. I had just discovered that the media of my country were much more objective, more moderate, less lying, and overall more democratic.

The period of illusions
The year 1989, right after the Berlin wall had fallen, was meant to be the year « 0 » for the whole of mankind. At least, that was what we thought at that time. A new start for a world without wars, without poverty. A world of happiness for all, in which we were finally going to live together. No more divisions or hostility, no longer this imminent fear of a forthcoming war.

In the East, they had believed in it so much that, led by illusions, they began to dream with their eyes wide-opened of a new world of coexistence and sharing.

They imagined and persuaded themselves that the Western world was a world suspended between earth and sky. A myth that had suddenly become touchable, within hand’s reach.

They were probably in a state of mind similar to that of the Amerindians at the beginning of the conquest of the far West; very naive. Truly ingenuous.

Then, history did nothing else but repeat itself. Because history always repeats itself. Only the context changes.

Too bad the West did not understand, did not want to seize such historical opportunity to open itself and welcome, in full frankness and mutual respect, this world from the East that came peacefully seeking a reciprocal coexistence.

Lies and mental aberrations

Since the end of World War II, Western propaganda, particularly the American one, has never ceased to aim at the East a quasi-obsessional hammering of idyllic messages and images of a Western world bathing into perfect happiness.

Applied equally in the west, this propaganda was mixed with images and stories of the world behind the « iron curtain », the reality of which was utterly distorted and darkened.

The goal was to create (and they succeeded) what was later called the « American leadership ». To define it, I offer to define « leadership » as a whole set of illusions and mental aberrations about the existence of a world to which everyone would like to belong. In reality, it is a world that does not exist and never existed. This world is also called « the American dream ».

In short, a game of fools. A fabric of lies in which we believed. Still today, it has become clear that the reality of yesterday and that of today are a permanent fabric of lies.

Americans, in particular live in a permanent lie and that, since their creation. It started with the myth of the Far West put into images by Hollywood in an idyllic manner. The reality is entirely different and has been occulted. Twenty million American Indians at the arrival of European settlers at the beginning of the conquest; at the end, less than a century later, only 60 000 were left. It is the largest genocide in human history. To date, no condemnation. The truth barely transpires today.

Check Point Charlie, in Berlin, at the time of the wall
Still now, the Western world is entirely acquired to the sleep-inducing image of « the American friend » wrapped into the aura of the savior the free world.

A friend who, according to the legend, first came to save Europe and the world during the first World War. What a blessing!

And who returned again, during the second World War. The American savior succeeded in stopping the evil Soviet at «Checkpoint Charlie». The whole Western world barely dodged a disaster. Pfew!

At this checkpoint the Americans and their European lackeys tried to create a myth to the Hollywood sauce. Big kitsch, yes!

At the beginning of this month of June 2014, during the commemoration of the Normandy landings, I was amazed to see how Americans continue to falsify history and to blatantly lie. With the help of European cowards of course.

To maintain a permanent psychosis, the Americans were threatening and provocative, as much towards their opponents as towards their own people and the population of the Allies. Such a behavior caused similar reactions among the opponent and so on, until the introduction on both sides of a true paranoia.

I believe that the Soviet intervention in Hungary in 1956, the construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961, and the crash of the "Prague Spring" in 1968 are direct consequences of this escalation of paranoia between the two blocks. The Americans can be credited for the direct initiative of this escalation.

One day we will know the truth about this period known as the "Cold War." We even have a duty to know the truth and the whole truth.

It is important to be reminded that the "walls" are foremost within our minds. But, regarding the other wall, fallen in 1989, it is clear that it is still there in the minds of today’s Western policymakers. It is not yet destroyed. This is especially the case with regard to the Americans, subject to a total mental aberration.

Back to reason: four examples

Unfortunately, we were bound to quickly become disillusioned and understand that we would not enter into a new era of peace and prosperity. It was all lies and promises from the West. Their intentions were far from sincere and honest, and they never intended to deal with us as equals. Their only endgame was as Western conqueror, triumphant and vengeful. Wishing to enslave us in order to better exploit us. For them, we were only consumers of their capitalist products; a potential market, and nothing more.

To support and confirm my statements, I will take four examples, among many others:
  • In our "liberated" countries, Western manufacturers implemented a dairy and food industry, supplanting what was already there, regardless of the existing agricultural environment. The domino effect was instantaneous and the farmers of these countries were ruined.
  • We were discredited and treated as "sheep to shear" in favor of the capitalist banking and usurious system. Putting their hands onto the banks of the conquered countries, the "banksters" have imposed their methods and systems: Western type mortgages, but with interest rates sometimes up to five times higher than those of West. Self-authorized robbery, yes! Especially because they were loans in euros, Swiss francs or dollars, modeled on the fluctuation of exchange rates. The destructive effect was guaranteed within a year after such loans were made. Result: a lot of ruined people and exorbitant suicide rates.
  • The Westerners also robbed us of all of the wealth and raw materials contained in our soils. They systematically bought at a more than derisory price, often bribing local potentates, both the mines and the factories that reprocessed these raw materials. In return, they gave us vague promises of investments and employment for the local population.
  • More directly, they sent an army of occupation. Example of such a deceit: Kosovo and "Bondsteel", 40,000 m2, the largest U.S. base ever built in Europe. In 1999, the U.S. imposed on a puppet government in Pristina, a 99 years lease, where the subsoil is rich in mercury, silver and lead. I am convinced that Americans began looting it immediately. The day they leave, there will be nothing left in the sub-soil but gaping holes. The American army also uses this base as one of their secret prisons.
After blowing in like a hurricane, Westerners triggered a tsunami effect.

Western arrogance
These Western acts of triumphal conquerors were particularly stupid. We were open to them, we wanted to learn from them, but also to pass on our knowledge. In the field of culture we could have had a very rich exchange: for us culture has always been very important, and we take great care of it. Contrary to this, we were treated with a wave of violence, spite and humiliation.

Curiously, I find some similarities between those events and those that occurred at the time of the Mayan and Aztec civilizations, when savage conquistadors looted and destroyed civilizations that were far more advanced than their own.

I am deeply convinced that the West, in this year 1989, did not understand what had just happened. Together we could have built a new world, instead of just destroying what already existed. The confidence that was then lost will never be regained.

In that year of 1989, Westerners blew it!
For example the Germans believed in the coming of a 4th Reich. Genscher, at the time Minister of Foreign Affairs and former SS officer, began to secretly visit the former Axis countries. And he was forcibly expelled from the Baltic countries by the Soviet.

Mitterrand's France was first opposed to German reunification. Backed as usual by the U. S., England was waiting for a signal from the Americans. The U.S. acted as if they had understood everything; they mainly pretended. They immediately applied (once more) their “shock doctrine”—immediate gains for sure, but very stupid on mid- to longer terms.

Those who saw through it all

I think the only ones who got it all, in the year 1989, were the Russians. Not the Russia of Mikhail Gorbachev and his entourage, but the Russians in the background, the strategists who acted immediately and started to create today's Russia. They understood that German unification would be, at least for the next twenty years, like slamming an economic brake for the new reunified Germany and by extension a brake for the Western economy, and that this length of time would enable the modern and forthcoming Russia to recover economically and militarily.

Today one must admit that they were visionaries who were absolutely right.

The stupidity and the greed of Westerners in general, Americans in particular, have led to where we are now, a dead-end without alternative.

Today the West has lost its hegemony over the world. The failure of its policy since 1989 is complete!

Recent events, such as those in Syria, demonstrate it.

The effects of this global deception

"At the time, I was young, very naive and very stupid, and I sincerely believed that the Soviet Union was a deadly threat to Western Europe and that the only thing that stood between them, the evil communists, and we, the free world, was the military power of NATO, "the Saker stressed in a text published in March 2014 [1].

How true is this sentence of the Saker. Unfortunately we were young and naive, our naivety bordering on stupidity. Especially since the American style has always been the same, simple, too simple, downright simplistic.

The end of the USSR

Mikhail Gorbatchev, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (1985 - 1991)

The Russians are a nation of spontaneous and naturally nice people; they voluntarily dropped "the wall" thanks to Mikhail Gorbachev’s naivety. Although ... regarding the naivety of Gorbachev, head of the USSR from 1985 to 1991, there are some doubts today. According to the latest news, an inquest has just started in Moscow to determine whether it is simple naivety or a case of high treason.

The only result produced by his "perestroika" (reconstruction) was an economic, military and political weakening of the USSR, and its disintegration. The ruble was becoming worthless and people were throwing it out of the windows. In spite of all this, even today, he says he is satisfied with what he did.

In 1990, he received the Nobel Peace Prize. Later, with the collapse of the USSR, it was rumored that it was the reward of the Americans for “letting the fox enter the henhouse.”

Boris Yeltsin, first President of the Russian Federation

Then, another strike of bad luck for the Russians. Either a real string of bad luck, or the result of a large-scale corruption: the arrival of Boris Yeltsin. Notorious drunkard, yes. For eight years, it was an open door to all possible abuses and looting. Russia saw the appearance of vultures nicknamed "oligarchs." Enriched overnight, they became billionaires. Some of the best known among them: Khodorovski, Abramovich, Berezowsky, Navalny, etc. A real scourge for Russia.

Boris Yeltsin himself considerably benefited from the situation. In Switzerland, he has been investigated for corruption. He presumably received bribes from a civil engineering company in Tessin, led by an Albanian who was mysteriously contracted to renovate the Kremlin. During his reign, privatizations prevailed. All that could be privatized and sold cheaply went to either oligarchs or foreigners, in particular Americans. Hence, Americans treated themselves to buying a military industrial complex in the north of Russia. Immediately after this purchase, they froze all of the activities with the company, so as to harm the Russians. With Boris Yeltsin, a chronic alcoholic, Russia became the laughingstock of the West. Bill Clinton, at that time the U.S. president, was accustomed, at each meeting with Yeltsin, to laugh to tears. Forced but triumphant laugh of course!

The most famous giggle in history. Bill Clinton laughing to tears after Boris Yeltsin called the journalists a disaster. (From the collections of the workshop archives, www.atelierdesarchives.com)

Russia, a great heroic nation, saw its dignity trampled. Westerners, Americans in particular, stupid and vengeful, behaved like bulls in a china shop: looting, humiliation, harassment of all kinds, both towards Russia and towards other so-called communist countries.

The Ceausescu trial in Romania
Coup in Romania. Sloppy and expeditious trial of the Ceausescu couple. Death sentence and immediate execution of the couple. Judgment by two judges who were taken by force to an improvised courtroom site that looked like a grade school classroom.

Shortly after the trial, the two judges committed suicide.

The destruction of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
Now, here is the height of Western stupidity: the destruction of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, under the false pretext that the people who composed it no longer wanted to live together. A pretext as cowardly as it is deceitful. Witness of it is the fact that it took Westerners almost twenty years to destroy it (from 1991 to 2006). A great and beautiful country, a Europe in miniature. A country of 24 million inhabitants and a territory of nearly 260,000 square kilometers (half of France). A sweet mixing of populations, cultures, religions. An incredible diversity of cultures, arts and foods. During the Cold War, the country has perfectly fulfilled its buffer role between East and West. Unfortunately the West had ideas of conquest and domination. I'm sure that the West had always and only ever wanted to take advantage of the Yugoslav position between the two blocks, and that's all. As disposable as a Kleenex, discarded once it has served.

Thrown out to the dogs of Western wars, and that for the dough gained by their arm dealers.

Dough, the only real Western value!
At the end of the Cold War, the old demons awoke. First, among the Germans and the Austrians (memories of 1st and 2nd world wars). But also at the Vatican, who saw an opportunity to settle disputes with the Orthodox Church. Westerners played on the antagonisms that were unique to this land in order to destroy it.

Such an act is cowardly, criminal and stupid, and it caused a lot of suffering, hundreds of thousands of deaths and as much destruction.

Remember that in a house there are walls that are said to be load-bearing. One should never touch them, because of the risk of seeing the house collapse. Yugoslavia, for Europe in any case, was one of those bearing walls. And our stupid Western leaders destroyed it.

Since then, the house has kept cracking and threatening to collapse.

I feel that the destruction of this country will be fatal to the destructors and that the Yugoslavian national anthem might as well be the Western funeral song. In the case of Yugoslavia, the West has shown a staggering political illiteracy and a stunning cultural ignorance.

And what about Russia in all this?
The Russians have said, "Never again! ". And they kept their word.

Once Yeltsin was thrown to the dumpster of history, they chose the best among them.

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, the man that was needed

A president and a very talented and intelligent politician. Someone who holds life principles, which he applies. In less than 15 years, he managed to return its glory and power to Russia. Today, not only is his country no longer the laughingstock of the West, but on the contrary, Russia has become the main geopolitical actor on the world stage. On the military level, its role is just as important. The Russians have caught up and even surpassed the Americans in this area. NATO has found a Russian opponent, who managed to halt its progression towards the east. The lying behavior of Westerners in the face of Russia is now being turned against them.

« The day the sun will rise above Russia, NATO will melt » Slobodan Milosevic (former President of Serbia)said, who “committed” suicide in 2006 at the hand of his jailers in the prison of the ICC in The Hague. According to British media, his trial was moving inexorably towards a nonsuit, that is a dismissal of charges.

And finally, what about the West in all this?
In 1989 a Russian visionary declared: "Communism and capitalism are the heads and tails of the same coin. Now we let down our communism. How long after that, do you think your capitalism will hold? "

Today, results agree entirely with him.

Conclusion
Forty-four years have passed since my arrival in the West. I am a full citizen of my adopted country (Switzerland). From the beginning, I had the desire, and made the effort, to integrate into this country. But I always refused to assimilate.

Since the beginning, I was aware of the benefits of having been born and raised in another country, another political system, before arriving here. I have always taken advantage of this asset, and used it in every opportunity that presented itself. I especially used it to understand and analyze some features and paradoxes of the west.

For example, very quickly, I had to admit the evidence that Westerners were viscerally anti-communists, including towards such rather tempered form as that of Yugoslavian communism, which was quite diluted from its original form.

For years I asked myself the question why.

A paradox that I wanted to elucidate at all costs. And I finally understood.

It's huge, because in reality it is the keystone of the West itself. The cause is capitalism itself. Since its beginning, by its very definition, it is an economic concept that is not viable. Therefore, it was doomed to fail from the beginning.

The reasons and causes of its inevitable failure, I will address in my next article.

Filo, for vineyardsaker.fr

June 2014

[1] http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.fr/2014/03/today-every-free-person-in-world-has-won.html

Source: http://www.vineyardsaker.fr/2014/07/15/1989-lannee-ou-loccident-a-tout-rate-par-filo/

Confession and open thread

Dear friends,

I am exhausted. Totally. Wiped out. And this has shown in the past couple of days when I failed to police comments which never should have made it to begin with. I hope to be able to address what I see as The Key Issue (all in caps!) by Thursday morning/early afternoon: will the US/NATO attempt to attack Russian and/or Novorussia and, if yes, how?

But tomorrow I will be gone. All day. I will go and hide and recharge my "emotional batteries" deep in the Florida wilderness. Somewhere with very few people, if any, but lots of wildlife and a pristine wilderness. I have to leave all my electronics at home, I just take my survival gear and my photo camera. Before I leave I will try to moderate comments one more time. After that I will be gone. I should be home by 8PM (nobody sane wants to remain in the Florida boonies after sundown). The weather tomorrow? 90F/32C, sunny, humidity 60%. Atlantic Ocean water temperature: 84F/29C. Perfect :-)

See you all tomorrow evening!

The Saker

PS: I leave you with one of my favorite songs on one of my favorite albums: Paris' "Sonic Jihad". 2003, but still one of the best ever.  I hope you enjoy it.


29TH July 2014 Nigeria SITREP (Boko Haram and General)

29TH July 2014 Nigeria SITREP (Boko Haram and General)

Kano

26th July: Two bomb attacks utilizing IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices) hit kano. The first blast was carried out by a teenage female suicide bomber at a university temporary facility. Only the suicide bomber was killed.

The second attack was also by a suicide bomber at a Church in Sabon Gari District, killing 6 people including the bomber. Among the casualties were a soldier, two men, a lady and a child.

27th July: A woman detonates explosives strapped to her body in Hotoro District of Kano metropolis, ……………..women who had lined up to buy kerosene, killing four and injuring dozens..

Another female bomber blew herself up at the entrance of an International Trade Fair Complex in Kano metropolis, killing several policemen and more than a dozen others badly injured.

NOTE: No one has claimed responsibility for these attacks. Kano state, in Northwest Nigeria is far outside the traditional Boko Haram area of operations, but it hosts a significant presence of Ahlis-Sunnah of Sheikh Bukar Al-Barnawi. The state Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso is also an opposition party chieftain and amongst the fiercest critics of the President, Goodluck Jonathan.

Adamawa

26th July: Ansorul-Muslimiin and Harakatul-Muhajirin fighters stormed Garkida town of Gombi Local Government Area of Adamawa State. Official report indicates that 2 soldiers and 4 other people were killed. However, sources in the Military intelligence confirmed that the death toll was 2 dozen soldier and policemen.

Cameroon

26th July: Ansorul-Muslimiin and Harakatul-Muhajiriin elite forces stormed the Northern Cameroonian town of Kolofata and kidnapped the wife of the Cameroonian Vice Prime Minister and the Lamido of Kolafata, a local Fulani/Fulfude tribal chief and local religious leader, Seini Boukar Lamine.

I believe that the two kidnapped persons would have been taken across the border into Nigeria’s side of the Adamawa mountains where Ansorul-Muslimiin and Harakatul-Muhajiriin both maintain extensive infrastructure.

While the US has made offer to help, Nigeria and Cameroon made it clear that US drones (Surveillance or otherwise) are not welcome in their airspaces. However, Joint Ariel Reconnaissance flights are already up and running as part of the two countries security cooperation, while British, French and American recon planes would join the aerial part of the search for the kidnapped victims.

29th July (Added): BBC Hausa Service reports that Cameroonian soldiers had in a six-hour operation rescued the wife of Amadou Ali, Cameroon’s Vice PM , who was kidnapped days earlier. sixteen people are reported to have died during the operation.

Yobe

28th July: More than a hundred fighters from Jamaa’atu Ahlis-Sunnah of Abubakar Shekau attack Katarko Village in Yobe State of Northeast Nigeria, killing about eight persons and destroying the sole bridge linking the area around the village with the rest of Nigeria. The attack took place around 7:30pm. Soldiers at a military outpost in the village fled into the bush after engaging the insurgents for a while, due to what they described as the insurgents “overwhelming superior firepower, which they were not equipped to deal with at all”. As usual the Airforce was nowhere to be found.

EBOLA OUTBREAK

The Nigerian Federal Ministry of Health and the Lagos State Ministry of Health have confirmed that Patrick Sawyer the Liberian who confirmed to have died in Lagos of Ebola (the first reported case) came in the direct contact with 59 people from his arrival at the airport in Lagos. Lagos State Health Commissioner Jide Idris revealed this at a press conference on 28th July 2014.

The persons include 44 contacts at the hospital he was taken to, 38 of whom were health workers and 6 laboratory staff, 15 contacts at the airport including 3 ECOWAS officials, 2 nursing staff at the airport, 5 airport handlers and the Nigerian Ambassador to Liberia.

The State government in Lagos have also begun taking proactive measures to prepare Lagos for more Ebola cases arriving in Nigeria via the state which is Nigeria’s first port of entry for most visitors. These measures include creating an Isolation Ward at the Yaba Infectious Diseases Centre in Yaba, Lagos, with plans to quickly expand the isolation wards to three. An Incident Command Centre to coordinate the state’s Rapid Response Team on Ebola has also been established.

Patrick Sawyer, a consultant for Liberia’s Finance Ministry in his 40s, collapsed on arrival at the Murtala Muhammad Airport in Lagos on July 20th and was put in isolation at the First Consultants Hospital (which has since been shut down and the staff under quarantine) in Obalende, Lagos. He died on Friday.

P.S

To Nora, while I have done and I usually do serious thinking on the underlying dynamics of what is going on, which The Saker knows, however I must decline to share my thoughts on them. One, I am trying to cram several lifetimes into one and this is a very extensive subject that I am not sure I can handle via commenting on The Saker’s blog . Two, my role here is to provide straight forward reportage and a little piece of situational analysis, uncoloured by politics. I consciously avoid mixing my views into what I write as I wish to avoid propaganda/biased reporting. It is left to the reader to choose their own politics free of any manipulation by me.


To From India, I have it on good authority that the three Lebanese-Nigerians arrested in Abuja last year have all been released, while those arrested in Kano are still supposedly in the custody of the Directorate/Department Of State Security.

To those who say nor insinuate that my SITREPS are paid for by the Saudi government, I can only say that fools abound everywhere mostly under Anonymous online handles.

To everyone, I, like The Saker, Mindfriedo, and Juan to the best of my knowledge, volunteer (our) time, resources and energy to do this for free. I appreciate the tremendous volume of interest in my SITREPs and I thank you all.

My purpose is to keep all of you informed of the true state of things here no matter how bitter that truth is to me personally, and I pray I do a good job with that I mind.
 

I have lost dearest friends and my wife has lost a cousin to this Boko Haram War that neither us nor our lost loved ones asked for, all of them killed by either the government or the insurgents. However, I will not In Shaa Allah because of my emotional hurt slant my SITREPs to reflect anything other than the truth. Thank you all and God Help mankind through this dark era. Amin