by M.Khazin
translation by "G' of М.Хазин, "Может ли быть мир на Украине?"
http://worldcrisis.ru/crisis/1646580
The devaluation of the Ruble and the Yevtushenkov affair have so saturated our mass media that it would seem desirable to stand aside and address a more substantial theme. Namely; under what conditions can the Ukraine know peace? Not just any ‘peace’ but a peace without wholesale disintegration of the country into petty fiefdoms, without a bloodstained dictatorship, without ethnic cleansing and without genocide. In order to answer this question, it is necessary, above all, to look at Kiev and Donetsk.
They should be part of one state. However the 10s of thousands killed and the open exhortations to genocide which have been issued by the dominant political forces in Kiev (for example: the phrase ‘Russians, clear off back to Moscovy’, which is directed at people who are not only currently inhabiting Lugansk and Donetsk but who have lived there for centuries, could be considered, formally from the point of view of international legal norms to fit the definition of genocide and, without doubt, that of ethnic cleansing) render such ‘cohabitation’ within the framework of a usual state simply impossible. The people of Donetsk and Lugansk (we include the Odessa massacre, even though it differs, in part from the others ) will never relinquish their right to justice against those who are guilty of the massacre of civilians and, similarly, the Kievan nationalists are unlikely to stop uttering phrases of the sort: ‘ We’ve barbecued that [Colorado Beetle] bitch.’ or other such endearments.
In theory the only way that Kiev can go back to normal would be in the context of sustained economic growth. In that case it might be possible to brush the nationalist slogans back under the carpet and for everyone to benefit from the resultant financial in-flows, but here Kiev has fallen into a trap of its own making. It is a simple fact that economic growth is only possible in collaboration with Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union. There is simply no other option. There is not even any real perspective for the development of agriculture; one would just need look at the example of Bulgaria, where the climate is noticeably more clement than that in Ukraine. Ukraine finds it impossible to compete with Turkey. Once the European Union association agreement comes into force there will be no means of regulating the influx of Turkish agri-business and the only profitable way to engage in agriculture will be in a vegetable garden. It is sufficient to look at the example set in that neighbouring former Soviet state, Moldova.
Insofar as Kiev has adopted a radically anti-Russian model, the chances of growth in that country are precisely zero. The European Union has no money and judging by the way that the crisis is developing the prognosis is not positive, and even if we were to look, more optimistically, into the medium term at the global economic situation, the European Union is most likely to help out the Eastern European Countries and the Baltic States before it bails out Ukraine. Nothing personal, just business.
And this means that Kievan Nationalism is going nowhere. It has no choice as it will be impossible for it to maintain its grip on power otherwise. Moreover it has achieved some success insofar as the United States has enacted sanctions against Russia and coerced its allies in Europe and the wider world to do likewise. There is only one problem: For how long will they be willing to prosecute these sanctions for the sake of Ukraine? Kiev’s issues will continue to mount, insofar as the only way that it can deal with the growth of democratic sentiment in the South East (it is clear that the struggle is for freedom and democracy, regardless of how discordant that sounds from the point of view of the contemporary Western mass media) is by the use of military force. It is far from certain that this particular problem can be resolved by military force.
In summary we can say that, judging by the development of negative economic trends, the intensity of internal confrontation in Kiev will constantly grow. In turn those wishing to live under their guardianship will become fewer and fewer. The cohesion of the Ukrainian state will melt like snow in the heat of the summer sun. As that happens the state will become more and more aggressive So we expect to see a contradiction in answer to the question that we posed. Is it possible to establish peace in the Ukraine?
I intentionally have not referred in general to Ukrainian nationalists, rather specifically to Kievan Nationalists. The fact is that Galician Nationalists and Kievan Nationalists are not the same. The latter always had significant sources of income (be it the budget of the USSR, Ukraine etc.), however the former have been forced to be much more pragmatic. Furthermore they have been unable to understand that they cannot hold Kiev. This is because any government in Kiev, in correspondence to their stability, will in the first instance, fall not upon the Russians in the Donbass, but rather upon the genuine committed nationalists. Today this is what Poroshenko is doing. This was clear earlier and I wrote about this earlier in the year.
Rather than being an idea (which moreover is distinctly un-appealing to the EU), Nationalism for Kiev is an instrument. There is no requirement for committed nationalists. The requirement is for cynics, who are happy to articulate nationalists’ slogans in order to gain control over the budgetary and gas revenue flows. Thus, regarding the situation in recent months, committed nationalists(which for our purposes we shall name ‘Right Sector’) have come to look more and more seriously at breaking away from Kiev. Moreover, Kiev earlier distributed budgetary money to them (received from Donbass and other regions) and now there is no more budgetary money to distribute.
However Galicia by itself cannot breakaway from Kiev. Kiev, for whom the slogan (‘for the unity of the Ukraine’) has become totemic, will never agree to it. This means that, as well as the rebels in the Donbass, there is also appearing a new force, which is also interested in the collapse of the country. In this way, from the above, we can formulate the picture below of the future Ukraine.
Should the Rebels from the South-East reach an agreement with the Galician nationalists, then they will take power in Kiev. In that case, the insurgents, proponents of the former Soviet Union and the slogan ‘friendship of the Peoples’ will, through the creation of a multi-ethnic ethnic state, put an end to nationalism and re-establish peace in the Ukraine. Galicia, as it were, in gratitude for its assistance, would receive either independence, probably as part of a confederation or quite possibly full independence as a separate state. It is clearly difficult to imagine a state where in some schools they teach that Bandera is a fascist criminal and in others – that he is a hero. But that remaining part of the Ukraine will be a peaceful, unified state, entering, one would imagine the European Economic Area.
Should agreement not be reached and the insurgents not achieve victory (either by circumstance or by result of foreign intervention), then the intensifying confrontation in Kiev will inescapably lead to the break-up of the country into petty fiefdoms with a correspondingly low quality of life and norms of governance. At present we enumerate 5 of these; Novorossiya, Hetmanshina (Cossak, with Kiev as its capital), New Khazaria (under the control of the oligarch Kolomoiski) and Galicia. We also consider one more statelet, Transcarpathia which is likely to be dissected and integrated into neighbouring countries.
But nobody has said that the process of disintegration will stop there. Anyone who doubts it should read Bulgakov. The mentality of the people in the Ukraine has not significantly changed since then. It is difficult to even conceive how a normal man can live in these conditions.
If we believe that the best outcome is a united (that is relatively united, without either the Crimea or Galicia) Ukraine, a Ukraine which is peaceful and prosperous, it is essential that the insurgents take control of Kiev. Until this happens, the war will continue. Unfortunately, there is simply no way of stopping the war and preserving Ukraine until Kiev falls to the insurgents.
Showing posts with label East-Ukrainian resistance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label East-Ukrainian resistance. Show all posts
Thursday, September 25, 2014
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Why Novorussia will never again accept Kiev's rule
Over the past couple of days I have spend a lot (too lot) of time dealing with the immediate issues such as the dying (or already defunct?) ceasefire agreement. Whatever importance one can give to this document and its meaning (or lack thereof), it is important not go get bogged down and do what the French call "avoir le nez dans le guidon" (to "have your nose in the handlebars" of a bike - not to see where the road is leading you).
Whenever I look at where our road is leading us I always come to the very same conclusion: it is my belief that Novorussia will never accept anything less than de-facto independence from Kiev.
Sure, this independence might be piously 'concealed' behind a thin layer of symbolic Ukrainian unity, but there is simply no way that Kiev will ever have real, effective, authority over Novorussia again. I think that even Russia will have to accept that, however reluctantly.
Now I heard that Poroshenko has made a major political statement today and that he declared that the Donbass might have some "special status", but that this would most definitely NOT be any type of federalization and that no DPR (Donetsk People's Republic) or LPR (Lugansk People's Republic) will ever be recognized by Kiev. I applaud Poroshenko for making that unambiguously clear statement as this only reinforces my deeply held conviction that both Novorussia and Russia proper have no other solution that regime change in Kiev. Although as this point in time this might appear an impossible task to complete, the Ukraine must be (and will be!) completely de-Nazified before any form of peace can return.
I want to share just one example of why I believe that total de-Nazification is an absolute prerequisite for peace. Check out the kind of "packages" mothers in Donetsk have been sent by one of the terror battalions paid for, and subordinated to, Igor Kolomoiski:
These are the severed heads of Novorussian soldiers captured by the Ukie death squads near Donetsk. The Ukies, of course, blamed this latest atrocity on some unidentified "Chechens" fighting on, of all things, the Novorussian side, but everybody got the message loud and clear anyway: leave before we kill you.
So when I speak of Nazi freaks or "Ukie Interahamwe" I am not being over the top at all. One the key aspects of the Junta's strategy is to empty the Donbass of its population, ethnic cleansing if you prefer. Some have left temporarily, and others have probably left forever, but just as in Gaza, those committing these atrocities are deluding themselves if they think everybody whom they will not kill will leave. The human spirit is always stronger than terror, at least in the long run, and unless a true genocide is a real option (and in this case it is not), this terror will not achieve it's intended result. In fact, it will only strengthen the determination of these people to fight. At any cost.
Poroshenko can lie to his people and/or even delude himself. Putin might hope that some kind of unitary Ukraine can still be preserved, but I am personally convinced that 1) Novorussia will never return under Kiev's rule and 2) that the war will continue until regime change occurs and the Ukraine de-Nazified. Finally, I believe that even if regime change occurs in Kiev and the rump-Ukraine is de-Nazified, Novorussia will still not accept anything short of de-facto independence from Kiev. The wisdom for the future non-Nazi regime in Kiev will be to accept the inevitability of this and make the best of it: the rest of the Ukraine will be much better of rebuilding itself from the smoking rubble than to try to persuade Novorossia to come back, nevermind force it to do so.
I understand that we are still very far from this, maybe a year away or, more likely, many years away. But just like the liberation of Palestine is a historical inevitability so is the independence of Novorussia. The price to pay for this outcome might be huge, and the wait very long. But this does not make this outcome less inevitable.
I think that it is important to keep this in mind, especially through the tragic and often discouraging times we are currently going through.
The Saker
Whenever I look at where our road is leading us I always come to the very same conclusion: it is my belief that Novorussia will never accept anything less than de-facto independence from Kiev.
Sure, this independence might be piously 'concealed' behind a thin layer of symbolic Ukrainian unity, but there is simply no way that Kiev will ever have real, effective, authority over Novorussia again. I think that even Russia will have to accept that, however reluctantly.
Now I heard that Poroshenko has made a major political statement today and that he declared that the Donbass might have some "special status", but that this would most definitely NOT be any type of federalization and that no DPR (Donetsk People's Republic) or LPR (Lugansk People's Republic) will ever be recognized by Kiev. I applaud Poroshenko for making that unambiguously clear statement as this only reinforces my deeply held conviction that both Novorussia and Russia proper have no other solution that regime change in Kiev. Although as this point in time this might appear an impossible task to complete, the Ukraine must be (and will be!) completely de-Nazified before any form of peace can return.
I want to share just one example of why I believe that total de-Nazification is an absolute prerequisite for peace. Check out the kind of "packages" mothers in Donetsk have been sent by one of the terror battalions paid for, and subordinated to, Igor Kolomoiski:
These are the severed heads of Novorussian soldiers captured by the Ukie death squads near Donetsk. The Ukies, of course, blamed this latest atrocity on some unidentified "Chechens" fighting on, of all things, the Novorussian side, but everybody got the message loud and clear anyway: leave before we kill you.
So when I speak of Nazi freaks or "Ukie Interahamwe" I am not being over the top at all. One the key aspects of the Junta's strategy is to empty the Donbass of its population, ethnic cleansing if you prefer. Some have left temporarily, and others have probably left forever, but just as in Gaza, those committing these atrocities are deluding themselves if they think everybody whom they will not kill will leave. The human spirit is always stronger than terror, at least in the long run, and unless a true genocide is a real option (and in this case it is not), this terror will not achieve it's intended result. In fact, it will only strengthen the determination of these people to fight. At any cost.
Poroshenko can lie to his people and/or even delude himself. Putin might hope that some kind of unitary Ukraine can still be preserved, but I am personally convinced that 1) Novorussia will never return under Kiev's rule and 2) that the war will continue until regime change occurs and the Ukraine de-Nazified. Finally, I believe that even if regime change occurs in Kiev and the rump-Ukraine is de-Nazified, Novorussia will still not accept anything short of de-facto independence from Kiev. The wisdom for the future non-Nazi regime in Kiev will be to accept the inevitability of this and make the best of it: the rest of the Ukraine will be much better of rebuilding itself from the smoking rubble than to try to persuade Novorossia to come back, nevermind force it to do so.
I understand that we are still very far from this, maybe a year away or, more likely, many years away. But just like the liberation of Palestine is a historical inevitability so is the independence of Novorussia. The price to pay for this outcome might be huge, and the wait very long. But this does not make this outcome less inevitable.
I think that it is important to keep this in mind, especially through the tragic and often discouraging times we are currently going through.
The Saker
Sunday, August 10, 2014
NOT a SITREP, but...
Dear friends,
Many of you have asked for a SITREP on the situation in the Ukraine. I have forwarded the request to Juan and Gleb. I just came back home today and I don't have the energy to make an analysis right now. Sorry. But I will say the following:
1) All the signs are that the Ukies have broken through several Resistance lines and that Donetsk is either surrounded or close to being surrounded.
2) The situation around Saur Mogila is very confused. From what I can tell the Resistance has lost the hill, but the Ukies have not taken it either. Both sides are shelling the hill.
At this point, I it too early to assess the situation. Yes, it looks bad, no doubt about it, but looks can be deceiving. For one thing, nobody in the Resistance side is in a panic or even disaster mode. The message I get it "the situation is serious but tenable".
Here is what I wrote to a contact just a few hours ago:
We shall see.
Right now, I am going to hit the sack, sorry I am exhausted. If I get a SITREP tonight I will try to post it. If not, then tomorrow. Stay tuned.
The Saker
Many of you have asked for a SITREP on the situation in the Ukraine. I have forwarded the request to Juan and Gleb. I just came back home today and I don't have the energy to make an analysis right now. Sorry. But I will say the following:
1) All the signs are that the Ukies have broken through several Resistance lines and that Donetsk is either surrounded or close to being surrounded.
2) The situation around Saur Mogila is very confused. From what I can tell the Resistance has lost the hill, but the Ukies have not taken it either. Both sides are shelling the hill.
At this point, I it too early to assess the situation. Yes, it looks bad, no doubt about it, but looks can be deceiving. For one thing, nobody in the Resistance side is in a panic or even disaster mode. The message I get it "the situation is serious but tenable".
Here is what I wrote to a contact just a few hours ago:
What I don't like is the fact that the Ukies are still in the offensive mode. They bleed, and they attack. They bleed again, and they attack again. Then they bleed some more, and they attack again. What if they suffer humongous casualties, and then win. Do you see what I fear? The resistance can do what the Germans did in WWII - win tactically, but loose operationally and then strategically. I am afraid that the resistance will "win its way to defeat".I am NOT saying that this is why is happening now. And at least one contact has replied to me "NO COLLAPSE. Everything is holding".
We shall see.
Right now, I am going to hit the sack, sorry I am exhausted. If I get a SITREP tonight I will try to post it. If not, then tomorrow. Stay tuned.
The Saker
Thursday, July 10, 2014
Very interesting video - the people of Kramatorsk vs Ukie occupiers (UPDATED)
This video is nothing short of amazing. Think of it, these people are openly confronting what is clearly Ukie death-squad and not just some regular military unit (their gear is brand new and clearly imported). Even more amazing is the language used. While I don't feel like translating it into English, I will say that it is just about the most overly aggressive, rude and provocative as it gets. You talk like that to a cop in Russia and you will get arrested and probably a good taste of his rubber truncheon.
Which, by the way, also is one hell of a contrast with the behavior of the Ukies in Odessa and Mariupol. This time the Ukies acted like pros: remained calm and composed. Wherever these guys came from, their are not the pathetic assortment of thugs seen in Mariupol but a disciplined unit. And whether they were aware or not that they were being filmed is irrelevant: it is very hard to keep your calm when faced with a clearly enraged crowd which could turn violent at any instant.
Can somebody find out what this unit is exactly? Where did these guys come from? I sure hope that this is not the sign of a revamped Ukie military because if it is, then the NAF militia will be facing a much more dangerous and capable enemy.
This is a remarkable video: a very courageous crowd facing some very professional soldiers. Things appear to be changing on both sides.
The Saker
UPDATE: I am getting a lot of comments saying that this is an old video. If so, then I would be even more interested in finding out what this unit is and what it has done since. I hate that re-cycling (and misleading) of old videos to new events, but I guess it comes with the Internet territory. But in this case, I still find this video quite amazing, though if that is not Kramatorsk today, then the behavior of the crowd is not so amazing. Anyway, sorry if this is an old one (don't have the time to check now), but if you find any info about the unit, please post it here. Thanks!! The Saker
Which, by the way, also is one hell of a contrast with the behavior of the Ukies in Odessa and Mariupol. This time the Ukies acted like pros: remained calm and composed. Wherever these guys came from, their are not the pathetic assortment of thugs seen in Mariupol but a disciplined unit. And whether they were aware or not that they were being filmed is irrelevant: it is very hard to keep your calm when faced with a clearly enraged crowd which could turn violent at any instant.
Can somebody find out what this unit is exactly? Where did these guys come from? I sure hope that this is not the sign of a revamped Ukie military because if it is, then the NAF militia will be facing a much more dangerous and capable enemy.
This is a remarkable video: a very courageous crowd facing some very professional soldiers. Things appear to be changing on both sides.
The Saker
UPDATE: I am getting a lot of comments saying that this is an old video. If so, then I would be even more interested in finding out what this unit is and what it has done since. I hate that re-cycling (and misleading) of old videos to new events, but I guess it comes with the Internet territory. But in this case, I still find this video quite amazing, though if that is not Kramatorsk today, then the behavior of the crowd is not so amazing. Anyway, sorry if this is an old one (don't have the time to check now), but if you find any info about the unit, please post it here. Thanks!! The Saker
Thursday, July 3, 2014
Joint Declaration by the Foreign Ministers of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany
Pressemitteilung:
Commentary: potentially, this could be huge. Of course, considering that the Ukie side has, so far, violated every single agreement it signed, this could also be just one more irrelevant document. But, if the junta came to the realization that its offensive against Novorussia is going absolutely nowhere from a military point of view and that its only result is to worsen the junta's image in the general public opinion (it was, after all, the junta which resumed hostilities), then this might indicate that Kiev is slowly coming to realize that its plan to either defeat the resistance or draw Russia in is failing. But even if the junta will immediately renege on this agreement, it sets a crucial precedent: Kiev has now officially accepted that a ceasefire will not be contingent upon the disarmament of the Novorussian forces. Of course, such a disarmament was never possible anyway, but what is important is that the junta is coming to the realization that it will have to accept this fact.
Again, it is way way waaaaay to early to rejoice, this all is far from over, but, combined with the obvious lack of any military progress of the junta's death squads in Novorussia, this is yet another solid reason to hope. As Juan always says, this will get worse before it gets better, but there are increasing signs that the junta is coming to the realization that the US imposed strategy has very little, if any, chance to work. Good.
The Saker
Joint Declaration by the Foreign Ministers of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany 02.07.2014-------
The Foreign Ministers of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine strongly reconfirm their commitment to sustainable peace and stability in Ukraine. In this context they stress the necessity of a sustainable ceasefire, to be agreed upon swiftly and to be observed by all concerned, thus putting an end to violence in Eastern Ukraine.
Ministers urge that the Contact Group should resume no later than July 5th with the goal of reaching an unconditional and mutually agreed sustainable cease-fire. This cease-fire should be monitored by the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine in conformity with its mandate. In that respect, Ministers agree to take all necessary measures and use their influence on the concerned parties with a view to achieving this goal. Ministers stress the importance of a swift release of all hostages.
Ministers welcome Russia’s readiness to grant Ukrainian border guards access to Russian territory in order to participate in the control of border crossings at the checkpoints Gukovo and Donetsk while the mutually agreed cease-fire is in place. This shall be done in close collaboration between Russian and Ukrainian border authorities and pending the return of the Ukrainian checkpoints Izvarino and Krasnopartizansk to Ukrainian government control.
Ministers invite the OSCE to take all necessary steps to deploy OSCE-observers in response to the Russian invitation at the Russian checkpoints Gukovo and Donetsk while the mutually agreed cease-fire is in place. All sides must contribute to a secure environment.
Ministers stress that this would contribute to an effective control of the Russian-Ukrainian border and called for regular and expeditious exchange of relevant information between Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE.
Ministers emphasize the need to ensure safety and security of journalists working in the area of violence.
Commentary: potentially, this could be huge. Of course, considering that the Ukie side has, so far, violated every single agreement it signed, this could also be just one more irrelevant document. But, if the junta came to the realization that its offensive against Novorussia is going absolutely nowhere from a military point of view and that its only result is to worsen the junta's image in the general public opinion (it was, after all, the junta which resumed hostilities), then this might indicate that Kiev is slowly coming to realize that its plan to either defeat the resistance or draw Russia in is failing. But even if the junta will immediately renege on this agreement, it sets a crucial precedent: Kiev has now officially accepted that a ceasefire will not be contingent upon the disarmament of the Novorussian forces. Of course, such a disarmament was never possible anyway, but what is important is that the junta is coming to the realization that it will have to accept this fact.
Again, it is way way waaaaay to early to rejoice, this all is far from over, but, combined with the obvious lack of any military progress of the junta's death squads in Novorussia, this is yet another solid reason to hope. As Juan always says, this will get worse before it gets better, but there are increasing signs that the junta is coming to the realization that the US imposed strategy has very little, if any, chance to work. Good.
The Saker
Sunday, June 22, 2014
Why Novorussian authorities need to get their act together
We already had the somewhat "bipolar" statements of Igor Strelkov who could go from "we are about to win" to "they are about to exterminate us" in 24 hours and then back. Still, looking at his videos he looked tremendously stressed and frustrated and, what is really a major issue in such situation, he looked severely sleep deprived. He also clearly was trying to wake up the semi-comatose part of the Novorussian population which preferred to stay home and either let Strelkov's men die for them or, if all else fails, they hoped for Russia's Polite Armed Men in Green to liberate them. So, if anything, I feel sympathy for Strelkov who, after all, is a military commander, not a professional spokesman. But then a truly incredible piece of news began popping up all over the Internet: the NDF had taken a major military base with 221 tanks, 228 APCs, 12
Self-Propelled guns, 18 Grad launchers, 183 IFVs, and 12 Mortars. Wow! I even saw an article claiming that the NDF was now in the process of forming an tank division (nevermind that there is a lot more to a tank division than just tanks). Tank division or not, if true this was truly fantastic news. The information came from "chief of the information section of the southeastern front", Konstantine Knyrik, it was picked up by Interfax and made its way to other news outlets (including ANNA news). A day later the press service of the Donetsk People's Republic denied this information. In fact, it appears that not only did the NDF not get such a fantastic arsenal - they did not even take the military base from which supposedly this arsenal came from: the Ukies had successfully repelled their attack.
Fog of war or no fog of war - this is a real problem, in my opinion.
All it takes is just *one* such embarrassing situations to shoot down in flames the credibility of all the information coming out of the resistance forces in Novorossia. And again, I will point out to Hezbollah as the perfect example of a successful information policy: as Hassan Nasrallah himself explained in a speech last year, Hezbollah might not always reveal all that it knows, but it will never lie. Never. Hezbollah announces its defeats as well as its victories. It even admits when it does a mistake. And this remarkable policy - especially in the Middle-East - gives Hezbollah a huge capital of credibility, even with the Israelis.
There is another example which the NDF and the authorities of Novorossia might want to pay attention to.
Yesterday evening I was watching a recorded experts panel basically discussing the viability of a Donetsk and Luganks People's Republic or Novorossia. The panel included mostly Russian experts, but a number of Novorossian officials were also invited. One of the panelist asked the Novorussians what they were doing to help those whose houses were being destroyed by Ukie shelling. The reply was: "we are actively discussing the issue". At which point, the moderator jumped in and said "stop discussing and help these people now!"
During the Israeli war on Lebanon in 2006 Hezbollah had an amazing policy: as soon as the bombs/shells stopped falling out of the sky, a truck with a group of Hezbollah young men would pull up and offer each family whose house had been destroyed three options: a) we rebuild your house b) we give you the money to rebuilt your house c) we help you relocate. The most interesting thing is that Hezbollah did that with all families regardless of whether they were Christians or Muslims and regardless of their political affiliations! Your house is lost - Hezbollah will help you out. Period. And before I get accused of parroting Hezbollah propaganda, I know about this from a (non-Lebanese and non-Muslim) friend who happened to be in south Lebanon during the war (I never read about this anywhere). This friend told me that Hezbollah had developed these policies many years ago during the various shelling and bombing campaigns the Israelis regularly engaged in.
And let me preempt the argument that Hezbollah is awash with Iranian money. So? The NDF should be (and probably is) awash with Russian money. Ditto for the argument that Hezbollah had it easy compared to the Novorussians: not so, Hezbollah was born during the Israeli occupation of Lebanon and it was primarily representing the interests of the poorest Lebanese, not the fact cat millionaires a la Hariri & Co, and most of the original Hezbollah members were rather young and inexperienced. So no, Hezbollah happened in very hard conditions and while Iran and Syrian did help, they did not do the job for the locals Lebanese patriots.
Hezbollah's example is highly relevant to the Novorussian situation because it shows that what a resistance movement need is what I would call a "holistic" approach to resistance. Yes, the military aspect is important (and Hezbollah is probably the most formidable guerrilla force on the planet), but the resistance effort must include a professionally run public/media information service, a smart fund-raising campaign. Do you remember when you could "buy" one Katusha-rocket for $10'000 on the Internet which Hezbollah would then guarantee would be "delivered" on Israeli positions? They also offered a rifle for a combatant, a full equipment set for a combatant and even 1 AK-74 bullet for $1 if I remember correctly. And money came pouring in! They also developed a computer-based RPG (role playing game) in which the player could play the role of a Hezbollah fighter. The invented many such schemes and did not only rely on Iranian money. Just imagine if such "purchases" were made available on the Russian Internet: "for $1000 you can "buy" an RPG round which will be shot at a National Guard target, for $100 dollars we will shot a mortar round at the Ukies, $10 will buy you a sniper shot and $1 an AK round" - the money would flow in in minutes because it would give Russians in Russia a way to feel like they are doing something useful, that they are participating to the struggle against the Fascists and their death-squads. By the way, there is already a precedent: during the wars in Chechnia, Russian businesses sponsored entire units, including elite ones: the businesses would give them all the money needed to get the best and latest gear in exchange simple for a heartfelt "thank you" from these units. Local OMON and SOBR units often had such corporate sponsors who then could count on the support of these units in case of problems with the local mobsters.
These are just a few examples of how creative one can get with some out of the box thinking. Again, Hezbollah set the gold-standard in this kind of business.
But first and foremost, the Novorussian authorities need to make it clear to the population that voting for independence is not enough - they need to also fight for it. This is what Strelkov clearly tried to do, but this has to be the job of a professional PR person, not an exhausted battle commander. I am sure that with time the Novorussians will do better, but they need to learn fast as Novorussia is still not anywhere near its real resistance potential and people are dying because of this "less than full scale" resistance.
The Saker
Fog of war or no fog of war - this is a real problem, in my opinion.
All it takes is just *one* such embarrassing situations to shoot down in flames the credibility of all the information coming out of the resistance forces in Novorossia. And again, I will point out to Hezbollah as the perfect example of a successful information policy: as Hassan Nasrallah himself explained in a speech last year, Hezbollah might not always reveal all that it knows, but it will never lie. Never. Hezbollah announces its defeats as well as its victories. It even admits when it does a mistake. And this remarkable policy - especially in the Middle-East - gives Hezbollah a huge capital of credibility, even with the Israelis.
There is another example which the NDF and the authorities of Novorossia might want to pay attention to.
Yesterday evening I was watching a recorded experts panel basically discussing the viability of a Donetsk and Luganks People's Republic or Novorossia. The panel included mostly Russian experts, but a number of Novorossian officials were also invited. One of the panelist asked the Novorussians what they were doing to help those whose houses were being destroyed by Ukie shelling. The reply was: "we are actively discussing the issue". At which point, the moderator jumped in and said "stop discussing and help these people now!"
During the Israeli war on Lebanon in 2006 Hezbollah had an amazing policy: as soon as the bombs/shells stopped falling out of the sky, a truck with a group of Hezbollah young men would pull up and offer each family whose house had been destroyed three options: a) we rebuild your house b) we give you the money to rebuilt your house c) we help you relocate. The most interesting thing is that Hezbollah did that with all families regardless of whether they were Christians or Muslims and regardless of their political affiliations! Your house is lost - Hezbollah will help you out. Period. And before I get accused of parroting Hezbollah propaganda, I know about this from a (non-Lebanese and non-Muslim) friend who happened to be in south Lebanon during the war (I never read about this anywhere). This friend told me that Hezbollah had developed these policies many years ago during the various shelling and bombing campaigns the Israelis regularly engaged in.
And let me preempt the argument that Hezbollah is awash with Iranian money. So? The NDF should be (and probably is) awash with Russian money. Ditto for the argument that Hezbollah had it easy compared to the Novorussians: not so, Hezbollah was born during the Israeli occupation of Lebanon and it was primarily representing the interests of the poorest Lebanese, not the fact cat millionaires a la Hariri & Co, and most of the original Hezbollah members were rather young and inexperienced. So no, Hezbollah happened in very hard conditions and while Iran and Syrian did help, they did not do the job for the locals Lebanese patriots.
Hezbollah's example is highly relevant to the Novorussian situation because it shows that what a resistance movement need is what I would call a "holistic" approach to resistance. Yes, the military aspect is important (and Hezbollah is probably the most formidable guerrilla force on the planet), but the resistance effort must include a professionally run public/media information service, a smart fund-raising campaign. Do you remember when you could "buy" one Katusha-rocket for $10'000 on the Internet which Hezbollah would then guarantee would be "delivered" on Israeli positions? They also offered a rifle for a combatant, a full equipment set for a combatant and even 1 AK-74 bullet for $1 if I remember correctly. And money came pouring in! They also developed a computer-based RPG (role playing game) in which the player could play the role of a Hezbollah fighter. The invented many such schemes and did not only rely on Iranian money. Just imagine if such "purchases" were made available on the Russian Internet: "for $1000 you can "buy" an RPG round which will be shot at a National Guard target, for $100 dollars we will shot a mortar round at the Ukies, $10 will buy you a sniper shot and $1 an AK round" - the money would flow in in minutes because it would give Russians in Russia a way to feel like they are doing something useful, that they are participating to the struggle against the Fascists and their death-squads. By the way, there is already a precedent: during the wars in Chechnia, Russian businesses sponsored entire units, including elite ones: the businesses would give them all the money needed to get the best and latest gear in exchange simple for a heartfelt "thank you" from these units. Local OMON and SOBR units often had such corporate sponsors who then could count on the support of these units in case of problems with the local mobsters.
These are just a few examples of how creative one can get with some out of the box thinking. Again, Hezbollah set the gold-standard in this kind of business.
But first and foremost, the Novorussian authorities need to make it clear to the population that voting for independence is not enough - they need to also fight for it. This is what Strelkov clearly tried to do, but this has to be the job of a professional PR person, not an exhausted battle commander. I am sure that with time the Novorussians will do better, but they need to learn fast as Novorussia is still not anywhere near its real resistance potential and people are dying because of this "less than full scale" resistance.
The Saker
Friday, June 20, 2014
URGENT Briefing From Igor Strelkov, June 19, 2014
URGENT Briefing From Igor Strelkov, June 19, 2014
Translated From Russian by Gleb Bazov
Original: http://icorpus.ru/svodka-ot-strelkova-19-06-2014-2019-s-pometkoj-srochno/
In the course of the night from 18th to 19th [of June], the enemy implemented a large-scale transfer of troops from the vicinity of Dolgenkoye village, where they have their stronghold and encampment, to the region of Krasniy Liman. Altogether, over 130 various items of military equipment were moved, including approximately 20 tanks and 40 APCs (“BMD,” “BMP” and “BTR”). The saboteur-intelligence group of the militia was able to take out one of the “BTR” APCs in the column by exploding a landmine. In addition, in the course of the night, the militia conducted strikes against the stronghold of the enemy in the Kombikormoviy neighbourhood.
Early in the morning on June 19, 2014, the enemy, with tanks and motorized infantry, and supported by two ground attack fighters Su-25, a division of self-propelled howitzers, a GRAD MLRS battery and several mortar batteries, dealt a massive blow against the positions of the Krasniy Liman detachment of militia located in the vicinity of Yampol settlement. The first attack was repelled, and an enemy tank was hit. At approximately 11:00 in the morning, the enemy resumed its attack, and despite losses, broke through the front. In the course of the battle, the enemy lost 4 “BMD” APCs and a large number of troops. However, using its colossal superiority in manpower and weaponry, the enemy was able to take Yampol and Zakhotnoye settlements, as well as the bridge across the river “Severniy Donets.” The Krasniy Liman detachment of militia suffered large losses in manpower and weaponry and was scattered. A detachment from Slavyansk that was sent to assist was also unable to stop the overwhelming forces of the enemy. Nevertheless, they fought an unequal battle in the settlement of Krivaya Luka.
As of 18:00 in the evening, the battle continues, the militia are attempting to break through the positions of the enemy toward Slavyansk.
Simultaneously with an attack against Yampol, large tank and motorized infantry forces of the enemy attacked the city of Seversk, where they were engaged in combat by the detachments of the militia commanded by Alexander Mozgovoi (the Lisichansk Battalion). The battle continues.
Attempting to assist the detachments fighting in the north, the Kramatorsk company (original – “rota”), undertook an attack against the enemy positions in the vicinity of the Markov settlement (to the east of Kramatorsk). In the course of the battle for control of the checkpoint, they were able to hit [and take out] one “BMP” APC and one “BTR” APC of the enemy. One of the militia fighters was lightly wounded. There have been no changes to positions around Slavyansk and Semyonovka.
In the morning, the detachments of the militia conducted mortar strikes against the Karachun Mount and against the positions of the enemy in the settlement of Vostochniy. In response, the enemy shot at Semyonovka with tanks, and, at 18:00, conducted artillery strikes with howitzers against the centre of Slavyansk. Multiple buildings hit and partially destroyed.
In conclusion, we can now confirm that the Ukrainian military has fulfilled the task, assigned by Poroshenko, of encircling the militia in the city of Slavyansk. Despite the courage and resilience of the militia fighters, they are unable to withstand in the open field massive attacks with tanks, artillery and aviation, particularly when the enemy has overwhelming superiority in manpower.
The militia and the people of the Donetsk People’s Republic call on the leadership of the Russian Federation to provide immediate aid to Novorossiya, in order to prevent the further genocide of the Russian population.
Situation Report from Novorossiya Armed Forces, June 19, 2014
Translated From Russian by Gleb Bazov
Original: http://vk.com/strelkov_info?w=wall-57424472_3562%2F996bf9c944ad3c3f5e
At 23:00 (MSK): the situation changes on an hourly basis. The Junta troops have retreated to the previously held positions near Kirovsk. As a result of work by centres of resistance, Junta has abandoned and retreated from Yampol and Seversk. A Su-25 ground attack fighter was shot down over Yampol, this has been confirmed now. With respect to the the two aircraft and a "crocodile" (Mi-24 helicopter) shot down earlier, there has been no confirmation yet. The battles continued. Yampol was fight till the end.
At 23:10 (MSK): at the southern outskirts of Krasniy Liman, there is maneuver-centric combat with the Kirovsk checkpoint. A column comprised of 20 armoured elements (3 tanks and 17 "BMP" APCs) is moving from the direction of Kirovsk toward the vicinity of the 3rd School (Krasniy Liman). An additional 2 tanks and 5 "BMP" APCs. One tank and a "tachanka" (a towed machine gun or an artillery piece) moving in the direction of Ostavki.
At 23:15 (MSK): The column [noted above], having passed down the Lenin street, turned back in the direction of the Golubiye Ozera ("Blue Lakes'). Large-caliber machine gun fire in the southern part of Krasniy Liman.
Translated From Russian by Gleb Bazov
Original: http://icorpus.ru/svodka-ot-strelkova-19-06-2014-2019-s-pometkoj-srochno/
In the course of the night from 18th to 19th [of June], the enemy implemented a large-scale transfer of troops from the vicinity of Dolgenkoye village, where they have their stronghold and encampment, to the region of Krasniy Liman. Altogether, over 130 various items of military equipment were moved, including approximately 20 tanks and 40 APCs (“BMD,” “BMP” and “BTR”). The saboteur-intelligence group of the militia was able to take out one of the “BTR” APCs in the column by exploding a landmine. In addition, in the course of the night, the militia conducted strikes against the stronghold of the enemy in the Kombikormoviy neighbourhood.
Early in the morning on June 19, 2014, the enemy, with tanks and motorized infantry, and supported by two ground attack fighters Su-25, a division of self-propelled howitzers, a GRAD MLRS battery and several mortar batteries, dealt a massive blow against the positions of the Krasniy Liman detachment of militia located in the vicinity of Yampol settlement. The first attack was repelled, and an enemy tank was hit. At approximately 11:00 in the morning, the enemy resumed its attack, and despite losses, broke through the front. In the course of the battle, the enemy lost 4 “BMD” APCs and a large number of troops. However, using its colossal superiority in manpower and weaponry, the enemy was able to take Yampol and Zakhotnoye settlements, as well as the bridge across the river “Severniy Donets.” The Krasniy Liman detachment of militia suffered large losses in manpower and weaponry and was scattered. A detachment from Slavyansk that was sent to assist was also unable to stop the overwhelming forces of the enemy. Nevertheless, they fought an unequal battle in the settlement of Krivaya Luka.
As of 18:00 in the evening, the battle continues, the militia are attempting to break through the positions of the enemy toward Slavyansk.
Simultaneously with an attack against Yampol, large tank and motorized infantry forces of the enemy attacked the city of Seversk, where they were engaged in combat by the detachments of the militia commanded by Alexander Mozgovoi (the Lisichansk Battalion). The battle continues.
Attempting to assist the detachments fighting in the north, the Kramatorsk company (original – “rota”), undertook an attack against the enemy positions in the vicinity of the Markov settlement (to the east of Kramatorsk). In the course of the battle for control of the checkpoint, they were able to hit [and take out] one “BMP” APC and one “BTR” APC of the enemy. One of the militia fighters was lightly wounded. There have been no changes to positions around Slavyansk and Semyonovka.
In the morning, the detachments of the militia conducted mortar strikes against the Karachun Mount and against the positions of the enemy in the settlement of Vostochniy. In response, the enemy shot at Semyonovka with tanks, and, at 18:00, conducted artillery strikes with howitzers against the centre of Slavyansk. Multiple buildings hit and partially destroyed.
In conclusion, we can now confirm that the Ukrainian military has fulfilled the task, assigned by Poroshenko, of encircling the militia in the city of Slavyansk. Despite the courage and resilience of the militia fighters, they are unable to withstand in the open field massive attacks with tanks, artillery and aviation, particularly when the enemy has overwhelming superiority in manpower.
The militia and the people of the Donetsk People’s Republic call on the leadership of the Russian Federation to provide immediate aid to Novorossiya, in order to prevent the further genocide of the Russian population.
Situation Report from Novorossiya Armed Forces, June 19, 2014
Translated From Russian by Gleb Bazov
Original: http://vk.com/strelkov_info?w=wall-57424472_3562%2F996bf9c944ad3c3f5e
At 23:00 (MSK): the situation changes on an hourly basis. The Junta troops have retreated to the previously held positions near Kirovsk. As a result of work by centres of resistance, Junta has abandoned and retreated from Yampol and Seversk. A Su-25 ground attack fighter was shot down over Yampol, this has been confirmed now. With respect to the the two aircraft and a "crocodile" (Mi-24 helicopter) shot down earlier, there has been no confirmation yet. The battles continued. Yampol was fight till the end.
At 23:10 (MSK): at the southern outskirts of Krasniy Liman, there is maneuver-centric combat with the Kirovsk checkpoint. A column comprised of 20 armoured elements (3 tanks and 17 "BMP" APCs) is moving from the direction of Kirovsk toward the vicinity of the 3rd School (Krasniy Liman). An additional 2 tanks and 5 "BMP" APCs. One tank and a "tachanka" (a towed machine gun or an artillery piece) moving in the direction of Ostavki.
At 23:15 (MSK): The column [noted above], having passed down the Lenin street, turned back in the direction of the Golubiye Ozera ("Blue Lakes'). Large-caliber machine gun fire in the southern part of Krasniy Liman.
Sunday, June 15, 2014
A scorecard for the US "lukewarm war" on Russia - strategic and tactical levels
First, I have to explain the title: "A scorecard for US war on Russia": what we are witnessing today is beyond any doubt a US war on Russia, except that it that is is neither quite "cold" nor "hot": it's tepid, lukewarm. Not for the people dying of course, but by it's choice of methods. It is not a Cold War because people are dying, because tanks, artillery and airpower is being used on a daily basis now, but it is not a Hot War either, because while people in the Ukraine are being killed, the real target of this war is, of course, Russia. In other words, this is not a Russian-Ukrainian war, nor is it a US-Ukrainian war, it is a US-Russian war, fought in the Ukraine with "Hot War" methods, but whose real target are not the murdered people in the Ukraine but Russia as a country and a civilizational project. I think that it is crucial to state that to make a correct analysis of what is going on.
STRATEGIC LEVEL ANALYSIS
The USA has no special interests in the Ukraine at all. The only reason why Uncle Sam got so heavily involved is the (totally mistaken) belief - expressed by Zbigniew Brzezinski and Hillary Clinton - that "without the Ukraine Russia cannot be a superpower" and that "Putin is trying to recreate the Soviet Union". Since a reborn USSR would be the single major threat to the US domination of the planet, the US shall spare no effort into making sure that the Ukraine not only breaks away from Russia, but turns into a US colonial protectorate like Poland or Lithuania: rabidly anti-Russian, administered by the EU and controlled by NATO. Of course, the "prize of prizes" would have been Crimea with Sevastopol as a base for the USN and a fantastic "unsinkable carrier" to project US subversive efforts throughout southern Russia, the Caucasus and even the Middle- East. Alas, Putin's lightening fast action in Crimea completely foiled this part of the plan: instead of getting the entire Ukraine including its crown jewel, Crimea, the AngloZionists were left in full control of West-Central Ukraine (aka "Banderastan") and an uprising in East-Central Ukraine (aka "Novorossia). However, Uncle Sam also walked away with some real successes: not only was the democratically elected President Yanukovich "regime-changed", the secession of Crimea and the uprising in the Donbass made the "more or less election" of a pro-US puppet like Poroshenko finally possible. So far so good, but remember, this is not about the Ukraine at all, this is about Russia and only Russia. So the relevant question is not whether the US succeeded in putting a puppet regime in power, but what good it does to the AngloZionist Empire to have Poroshenko in power in Kiev. The answer to that is, of course, very little, if any.
Again, to understand the US position you have to stop thinking like a rational and mentally sane person, and try to think like an imperialistic maniac hell-bent on world domination who sincerely sees Russia at the #1 obstacle to the realization of this goal. Such a maniac will ask himself a basic question: how much, if at all, is Russia weakened by the current situation in the Ukraine? And, again, the obvious answer is only marginally. Here is how a hypothetical US "1% deep-stater" will think about Russia's current position:
They got Crimea, so all our hopes about the Black Sea region, the Caucasus and the Middle-East are gone. In fact, now that Crimea is fully Russia, it is the Russian position in the Black Sea region, the Caucasus and even the Middle-East which has become stronger, much stronger in fact. Worse, by chopping off the Crimea from the rest of the Ukraine, the Russikies have not only created a very dangerous precedent, they have deeply destabilized the richest and best educated part of the Ukraine - the Donbass - leaving us with the a poor, phenomenally corrupt basically broke "Banderastan" to run. Worse, if we did not have our various CIA run death-squads ("Maindanites", "Right Sector", "National Guard", "soccer hooligans", etc.) then Poroshenko would probably last less than 1 month in power anyway, especially with the accursed Russikes about to turn off the gas spigot if the Ukies don't come up with a payment plan they cannot afford anyway. The only thing our symbolic pseudo-sanctions against Russia have achieved so far was to push the Russkies to do what they should have done a decade ago: to lower their dependence on the US-controlled banking system, to sever their ties with the Ukie military-industrial complex and to push the Russian business community towards seeking stronger ties with Asia.
The bottom line is that at least so far the AngloZionist Empire has failed to secure any strategic objective. Russia is as powerful as ever, arguably even more powerful than before the crisis began.
What about the association agreement with the EU then? It means nothing to the Americans. All that agreement would really achieve would be to further impoverish the rump-Ukraine and create a bloody mess for the EU. Yes, for Russia this would mean maybe two to three years of minor headaches (dealing with illegal immigrants, finding new suppliers, etc.) but nothing truly meaningful. And since it was the EU the broke the Ukraine, they now own it, but then since it is the US which own the EU to begin with, you might as well say that the US now owns what is left of the Ukraine. Hardly a coveted prize...
There is only one way for the AngloZionists to turn defeat into victory and that way is most obviously to pull Russia into an overt military intervention in the Donbass. An overt Russian military intervention in the Donbass would achieve all the following goals:
Initially, Russia wanted something rather basic: an independent, more or less neutral, but prosperous Ukraine. Not because Russians are inherently just so nice and compassionate, but because the best thing for Russia is to have a prosperous neighbor for which she hold no responsibility but with which she can built mutually beneficial economic ties. Yes, sure, Kiev is the mother of all Russian cities, and the so-called Ukraine is an invention - no such state of nation ever existed before - and it is true that the "Small Russia" (in the meaning of "Core" or "Central" Russia) is the cradle of the Russian civilization, but these are all things of the past. Nowadays, if the Ukies want to call themselves something other than "Russians", and if they want to try to re-invent themselves a culture ex nihilo - let them. Who cares really? It's their loss: instead being a part of one of the (relatively) ancient nations and cultures in history they chose to become, well, who knows what? But who cares, it's their right after all. Their "arguments" might not get much traction with most Russians, especially the educated ones, but this is hardly a reason for conflict. Over the past two decades there never has been a movement of any relevance in Russia to oppose the Ukrainian independence. Basically, most Russians did not give a damn and, frankly, they were right.
But, again, we need to remember that this is not a Russian-Ukrainian problem. It is a US-Russian problem. And for the USA, the kind of independent and more or less prosperous Ukraine which Russia would have been happy to have as a neighbor was absolutely unacceptable. If Russia wanted a "Ukrainian Finland", the USA wanted a "Ukrainian Poland". That is something which Russia cannot allow to happen. So, in strategic terms, the three key strategic goals for Russia are, by order of importance:
First, you will notice that if the choice comes down to an overt military intervention and the creation of a Banderastan on the western border of Russia a military intervention is preferable, at least in my opinion. I have no way of knowing whether the folks in the Kremlin would agree with me or not, but my sense is that that would if only because of the long-term consequences of having a Banderastsan along over 2'000km of its western border and less than 500km from downtown Moscow. So make no mistake - Russia will intervene militarily in Novorossia if there is absolutely no other choice. Even if that means a risk of war with NATO. Even if that means a war with NATO. For Russia, this is not an elective conflict, but an existential threat and there is a national consensus on that.
Second, there is the issue of human rights and the plight of the people of Novorossia.
Considering how many of us have become disillusioned with our fellow human being and cynics about any and all politicians, I won't even go into the "brother nations" argument, nor will I claim that Putin, Lavrov or anybody else in the Kremlin sincerely cares about the atrocities committed against what are, of course, really fellow Russians who happened to live in what is called "the Ukraine" because of Soviet internal administrative borders. I personally am convinced that Putin and Lavrov really do care - but I will not use that personal belief of mine as an argument. I will use only a fully pragmatic argument which is fully compatible with the hypothesis that the folks in the Kremlin care only about their own narrow self-interest. And the argument is this:
There is a lot of pent-up rage and outrage in Russia. Unlike the western MSM, the Russian media is full of daily reports about the atrocities committed by the Ukie death squads. Day after day after day the Russians see neo-Nazi thugs marching around Kiev, Odessa and other cities with neo-Nazi symbols, they see the bombed out houses of Slaviansk and Kramatorsk, they see the endless interviews with maimed civilians and terrified refugees. Day after day after day the most famous Russian journalists and reporters openly pour out their scorn and disgust for the lying bastards of the junta in Kiev, the the West's endless double-standards, on the fact that there is apparently no such crime or action which the West would not approve of as long as it is committed by neo-Nazis and against Russians. So whether Putin, Lavrov & Co. are bleeding hearts or cynical politicians makes no difference at all: they cannot, repeat, cannot, ignore the atrocities committed by the Ukie death-squads in Novorossia. So far, Putin's ratings are sky high (in the 80% range), but this can change, rapidly if events get out of hands. Furthermore, while the current three official "opposition" parties are more or less a joke (LDPR and Just Russia will fall in line if/when needed, the Communists are really a lame joke), there are other parties being formed right now who have a huge political potential, such as Starikov's "Great Fatherland Party". And Putin is acutely aware that the only real danger to his rule comes not from the completely tiny discredited "liberal" "non-system" opposition parties (no more than 1%-3% of popular support) or from the hopelessly antiquated and clueless "official" or "system" opposition parties, but from the "next generation" young, dynamic and visionary parties lead not by clowns, but by very sharp young men like Starikov (don't judge all Russian Communists by the likes of Zyuganov!). And, remember, Putin did promise to intervene and protect the people of Novorossia if a real bloodbath begins there. So this is why I do believe that protecting the people of Novorossia (point #3 above) is crucial even if we assume that Putin would be willing to betray and sacrifice the Russian population of the Donbass (which, again, I personally do not believe!).
At this point the Russian policy becomes, I think, clear: to covertly support the resistance movement of Novorossia without yielding any proof of intervention which could be used by the AngloZionists to demonize Russia (they already do that, but with very little credibility in the public opinion).
Now that we have identified the strategic goals of both sides, we can look at the methods (tactics) they are using to achieve them.
TACTICAL LEVEL ANALYSIS
On the US side the plan is simple: to provoke Russia in every possible way. So far these have include (in no special order):
From my point of view - one of an ex-military analyst - I would say that I am extremely unimpressed by the junta's performance so far.
The junta's death squads have used all the means at their disposal to try to terrorize the people of Novorossia: they began with baseball bats, then knives, then guns, they assault-rifles, then machine guns, then heavy machine guns, then mortars, then heavy mortars, then regular artillery, then multiple rocket launchers, then attack helicopters, then attack aircraft, then cluster munitions, now even white phosphorus. And what did they achieve in military terms:
1) they are more or less holding an airport and one hill near Slaviansk/Kramatorsk
2) they have taken Krasnyi Liman (and committed a massacre in its hospital)
3) they apparently have 1000 or so men surrounded in the Lugansk airport
That's it. They could not even take Slaviansk! This is with force ratios anywhere between 5:1 to 100:1, with heavy firepower, armor and total air supremacy. Sub-pathetic, really...
And, in the process, they have lost hundreds of soldiers who defected to the other side - often with weapons - they have gotten a huge number of their own conscripts killed, one group of senior "Alpha" officers was caught and several paratrooper recon units were made prisoner (the latest one yesterday). In Lugansk Ukie forces appear surrounded and the latest shooting down of an Il-76 by the NDF air defense forces was part of a desperate attempt of the junta to free these forces or, at least, to resupply them. In fact, there are all the signs of a desperate movement by land of Ukrainian armor and infantry to break through these units some of which, according to unconfirmed reports, have already switched sides.
As for the Novorossian Defense Forces (NDF), they now clearly have a solid air-defense network up and running, they seem to have plenty of weapons (even though they still lack some specific types) and most, but not all, of these weapons are truly trophy weapons taken from the Ukies (such as the 3 T-64 tanks recently shown in the news). The initial trickle of volunteers has slowly but steadily become larger (including volunteers from Russia proper) and the NDF is now clearly enjoying some fancy systems which could have only have been provided by Russia (electronic warfare, advanced anti-air systems, etc.). Yes, there are lots of Ukie tanks around Luganks, but as late as this morning a senior NDF officer in the area has said that "we can hold them for at least several months". Finally, and for the very first time, there are signs that the NDF are mounting offensive operations.
I am basing all of the above on admittedly partial information, but to me all the signs are clear and point to one and only one reality: the Ukie offensive is going absolutely nowhere and unless Uncle Sam comes up with a dramatic way of changing the face of the battle, Novorossia will probably withstand the Ukie assault without over Russian intervention.
(TEMPORARY) CONCLUSION:
So far, I see the strategic-level scorecard for the AnlgoZionist as a complete failure. As for the tactical-level scorecard, it is probably too early to call, but I would say that it looks like the Empire is headed for a complete defeat. Of course, these are temporary conclusions and I don't want to sound like Dubya with his notorious "Mission accomplished". But I think that for all of us who get sick in their stomachs each time we hear of the latest Ukie atrocity it is important to keep in mind that so far the neo-Nazis and their AngloZionist masters are losing and that there is no reason to suspect that this trend will somehow reverse itself in the foreseeable future.
We have to also always keep in mind that "lukewarm" as it may be, this is a major war of planetary importance because as Dugin correctly points it is the future of Russia, and therefore of all of Eurasia, which is being decided. Russian parity (I would even argue superiority) in strategic nuclear weapons have made a hot war impossible (at least for a rational actor), but that does not mean that both sides are not engaged in this apparently "lukewarm" war with every bit of energy and power they got! What we are witnessing today is nothing short of a major struggle for survival between the AngloZionist Empire and the "Eurasian project" (for lack of a better word) centered around Russia and China and their attempt to replace the old order by new, multi-polar, dollar-independent, militarily balanced one. Hegemony vs collective security for the entire planet is what is at stake. This is why every time we listen to the latest reports out of Novorossia we have to constantly keep in mind that in reality this is a US-Russian war over the future international order of the planet and not an "ethnic civil war".
As you know, I have been living with a knot in my stomach for weeks now, and with each additional report about the neo-Nazi atrocities committed against the people of Novorossia I get more desperate, more angry and more frustrated. And I have to admit that if the Russians finally openly intervene and beat the crap out of the Ukie death squads (which won't last 24 hours against a real military force) I won't be able to contain myself - I will open a bottle of champagne and dance with my wife across the house. But I also know that the right thing to do is keep our "eyes on the prize" and let this abomination I called "Banderstan" self-destruct without any over Russian help. The latest attack on the Russian embassy in Kiev is not only an outrageous violation of the Vienna Convention, it is also a fantastic admission of impotence, of powerlessness, of irrelevance really. Think of it, a crowd of neo-Nazi thugs overturns a few cars and tosses eggs and stones at an embassy building in downtown Kiev and all the Ukie authorities can do is to order the cops to move out of the way and to send the deputy Foreign Minister to express his support for the crowd. "Слава Україні — Героям Слава" (glory to the Ukraine - to the Heroes Glory!) indeed - some heroic Ukie nationalism at work, there is an "operation" the Ukies can be proud of, something to add to the pantheon of Ukrainian national pride.
[They are as pathetic as they are disgusting, of course. I really wonder how any putative "sane Ukrainian" can live without dying of a combination of shame and self-disgust. But then, that ain't my problem, thank God.]
There is probably more of that sickening Ukie mix of atrocities and buffoonery on the way. Normal civilized people cannot imagine the kind of stuff that these hate-filled psychopaths can come up with. Frankly, I would not put it past them to try an air or missile strike on, say, a kindergarten in Crimea or even in Belgorod. They could also kidnap a delivery man for a Russian company still operating in Kiev or heroically massacre of minibus with an Aeroflot crew on the way to the airport. Whatever! We have to accept the inevitability of such actions because this is all this junta can do - they simply have no civilized diplomatic, commercial, military or other means to prevail against Russia and their own people. But always always keep this in mind: with each such action the Ukies are confessing to their own impotence while digging their own grave.
So even if "ще не вмерла україна" ("the Ukraine is not dead yet" - from the Ukie "national anthem" with words copied from the Polish one and a melody composed by [what else?] a Uniat priest), it's days are counted and, as doctors like to say, the prognosis is poor.
The Saker
STRATEGIC LEVEL ANALYSIS
The USA has no special interests in the Ukraine at all. The only reason why Uncle Sam got so heavily involved is the (totally mistaken) belief - expressed by Zbigniew Brzezinski and Hillary Clinton - that "without the Ukraine Russia cannot be a superpower" and that "Putin is trying to recreate the Soviet Union". Since a reborn USSR would be the single major threat to the US domination of the planet, the US shall spare no effort into making sure that the Ukraine not only breaks away from Russia, but turns into a US colonial protectorate like Poland or Lithuania: rabidly anti-Russian, administered by the EU and controlled by NATO. Of course, the "prize of prizes" would have been Crimea with Sevastopol as a base for the USN and a fantastic "unsinkable carrier" to project US subversive efforts throughout southern Russia, the Caucasus and even the Middle- East. Alas, Putin's lightening fast action in Crimea completely foiled this part of the plan: instead of getting the entire Ukraine including its crown jewel, Crimea, the AngloZionists were left in full control of West-Central Ukraine (aka "Banderastan") and an uprising in East-Central Ukraine (aka "Novorossia). However, Uncle Sam also walked away with some real successes: not only was the democratically elected President Yanukovich "regime-changed", the secession of Crimea and the uprising in the Donbass made the "more or less election" of a pro-US puppet like Poroshenko finally possible. So far so good, but remember, this is not about the Ukraine at all, this is about Russia and only Russia. So the relevant question is not whether the US succeeded in putting a puppet regime in power, but what good it does to the AngloZionist Empire to have Poroshenko in power in Kiev. The answer to that is, of course, very little, if any.
Again, to understand the US position you have to stop thinking like a rational and mentally sane person, and try to think like an imperialistic maniac hell-bent on world domination who sincerely sees Russia at the #1 obstacle to the realization of this goal. Such a maniac will ask himself a basic question: how much, if at all, is Russia weakened by the current situation in the Ukraine? And, again, the obvious answer is only marginally. Here is how a hypothetical US "1% deep-stater" will think about Russia's current position:
They got Crimea, so all our hopes about the Black Sea region, the Caucasus and the Middle-East are gone. In fact, now that Crimea is fully Russia, it is the Russian position in the Black Sea region, the Caucasus and even the Middle-East which has become stronger, much stronger in fact. Worse, by chopping off the Crimea from the rest of the Ukraine, the Russikies have not only created a very dangerous precedent, they have deeply destabilized the richest and best educated part of the Ukraine - the Donbass - leaving us with the a poor, phenomenally corrupt basically broke "Banderastan" to run. Worse, if we did not have our various CIA run death-squads ("Maindanites", "Right Sector", "National Guard", "soccer hooligans", etc.) then Poroshenko would probably last less than 1 month in power anyway, especially with the accursed Russikes about to turn off the gas spigot if the Ukies don't come up with a payment plan they cannot afford anyway. The only thing our symbolic pseudo-sanctions against Russia have achieved so far was to push the Russkies to do what they should have done a decade ago: to lower their dependence on the US-controlled banking system, to sever their ties with the Ukie military-industrial complex and to push the Russian business community towards seeking stronger ties with Asia.
The bottom line is that at least so far the AngloZionist Empire has failed to secure any strategic objective. Russia is as powerful as ever, arguably even more powerful than before the crisis began.
What about the association agreement with the EU then? It means nothing to the Americans. All that agreement would really achieve would be to further impoverish the rump-Ukraine and create a bloody mess for the EU. Yes, for Russia this would mean maybe two to three years of minor headaches (dealing with illegal immigrants, finding new suppliers, etc.) but nothing truly meaningful. And since it was the EU the broke the Ukraine, they now own it, but then since it is the US which own the EU to begin with, you might as well say that the US now owns what is left of the Ukraine. Hardly a coveted prize...
There is only one way for the AngloZionists to turn defeat into victory and that way is most obviously to pull Russia into an overt military intervention in the Donbass. An overt Russian military intervention in the Donbass would achieve all the following goals:
- Create a fantastic justification for the continued existence of NATO.
- Create a fantastic justification for a new Cold War in Europe which would strengthen the US grip on the Old Continent.
- Create a fantastic justification for an increase in military spending for all NATO states.
- Create a fantastic scapegoat upon which to blame upcoming economic collapse of Banderastan.
- Create a fantastic opportunity to demonize Russia and Putin personally.
- Create a perfect justification for the CIA to initiate another Operation Cyclone, this time in Novorossia.
- Create a great way to show the US public opinion that Obama is a tough, "war President", with "hair on his chest" and who can show the Russkies who is boss thereby overturning the image of a flaccid and incompetent loser which Obama presently "enjoys".
- Make the Russians pay for the failed war in Syria.
- Show all the BRICS countries that nobody can defy Uncle Sam
- Re-vitalize the currently comatose and desperate (CIA-controlled) "liberal" opposition in Russia.
Initially, Russia wanted something rather basic: an independent, more or less neutral, but prosperous Ukraine. Not because Russians are inherently just so nice and compassionate, but because the best thing for Russia is to have a prosperous neighbor for which she hold no responsibility but with which she can built mutually beneficial economic ties. Yes, sure, Kiev is the mother of all Russian cities, and the so-called Ukraine is an invention - no such state of nation ever existed before - and it is true that the "Small Russia" (in the meaning of "Core" or "Central" Russia) is the cradle of the Russian civilization, but these are all things of the past. Nowadays, if the Ukies want to call themselves something other than "Russians", and if they want to try to re-invent themselves a culture ex nihilo - let them. Who cares really? It's their loss: instead being a part of one of the (relatively) ancient nations and cultures in history they chose to become, well, who knows what? But who cares, it's their right after all. Their "arguments" might not get much traction with most Russians, especially the educated ones, but this is hardly a reason for conflict. Over the past two decades there never has been a movement of any relevance in Russia to oppose the Ukrainian independence. Basically, most Russians did not give a damn and, frankly, they were right.
But, again, we need to remember that this is not a Russian-Ukrainian problem. It is a US-Russian problem. And for the USA, the kind of independent and more or less prosperous Ukraine which Russia would have been happy to have as a neighbor was absolutely unacceptable. If Russia wanted a "Ukrainian Finland", the USA wanted a "Ukrainian Poland". That is something which Russia cannot allow to happen. So, in strategic terms, the three key strategic goals for Russia are, by order of importance:
- To prevent the creation of a "Banderastan" on Russia's borders
- To avoid being sucked into an overt military intervention
- To protect the people of Novorossia
First, you will notice that if the choice comes down to an overt military intervention and the creation of a Banderastan on the western border of Russia a military intervention is preferable, at least in my opinion. I have no way of knowing whether the folks in the Kremlin would agree with me or not, but my sense is that that would if only because of the long-term consequences of having a Banderastsan along over 2'000km of its western border and less than 500km from downtown Moscow. So make no mistake - Russia will intervene militarily in Novorossia if there is absolutely no other choice. Even if that means a risk of war with NATO. Even if that means a war with NATO. For Russia, this is not an elective conflict, but an existential threat and there is a national consensus on that.
Second, there is the issue of human rights and the plight of the people of Novorossia.
Considering how many of us have become disillusioned with our fellow human being and cynics about any and all politicians, I won't even go into the "brother nations" argument, nor will I claim that Putin, Lavrov or anybody else in the Kremlin sincerely cares about the atrocities committed against what are, of course, really fellow Russians who happened to live in what is called "the Ukraine" because of Soviet internal administrative borders. I personally am convinced that Putin and Lavrov really do care - but I will not use that personal belief of mine as an argument. I will use only a fully pragmatic argument which is fully compatible with the hypothesis that the folks in the Kremlin care only about their own narrow self-interest. And the argument is this:
There is a lot of pent-up rage and outrage in Russia. Unlike the western MSM, the Russian media is full of daily reports about the atrocities committed by the Ukie death squads. Day after day after day the Russians see neo-Nazi thugs marching around Kiev, Odessa and other cities with neo-Nazi symbols, they see the bombed out houses of Slaviansk and Kramatorsk, they see the endless interviews with maimed civilians and terrified refugees. Day after day after day the most famous Russian journalists and reporters openly pour out their scorn and disgust for the lying bastards of the junta in Kiev, the the West's endless double-standards, on the fact that there is apparently no such crime or action which the West would not approve of as long as it is committed by neo-Nazis and against Russians. So whether Putin, Lavrov & Co. are bleeding hearts or cynical politicians makes no difference at all: they cannot, repeat, cannot, ignore the atrocities committed by the Ukie death-squads in Novorossia. So far, Putin's ratings are sky high (in the 80% range), but this can change, rapidly if events get out of hands. Furthermore, while the current three official "opposition" parties are more or less a joke (LDPR and Just Russia will fall in line if/when needed, the Communists are really a lame joke), there are other parties being formed right now who have a huge political potential, such as Starikov's "Great Fatherland Party". And Putin is acutely aware that the only real danger to his rule comes not from the completely tiny discredited "liberal" "non-system" opposition parties (no more than 1%-3% of popular support) or from the hopelessly antiquated and clueless "official" or "system" opposition parties, but from the "next generation" young, dynamic and visionary parties lead not by clowns, but by very sharp young men like Starikov (don't judge all Russian Communists by the likes of Zyuganov!). And, remember, Putin did promise to intervene and protect the people of Novorossia if a real bloodbath begins there. So this is why I do believe that protecting the people of Novorossia (point #3 above) is crucial even if we assume that Putin would be willing to betray and sacrifice the Russian population of the Donbass (which, again, I personally do not believe!).
At this point the Russian policy becomes, I think, clear: to covertly support the resistance movement of Novorossia without yielding any proof of intervention which could be used by the AngloZionists to demonize Russia (they already do that, but with very little credibility in the public opinion).
Now that we have identified the strategic goals of both sides, we can look at the methods (tactics) they are using to achieve them.
TACTICAL LEVEL ANALYSIS
On the US side the plan is simple: to provoke Russia in every possible way. So far these have include (in no special order):
- Recognition of an illegal regime which came to power with violence.
- Support for a neo-Nazi regime.
- Massive anti-Russian propaganda.
- Limitless amount of double-standards.
- Repeated kidnapping of fully accredited journalists.
- Whitewashing of massacres (Odessa, Mariupol).
- Support for armed assaults on opposition politicians (Tsarev).
- Murder of political opponents (murdered Communists Party members).
- Attacks on political parties (torched Communist Party offices).
- Illegal use of cluster bombs on civilians.
- Illegal use of White Phosphorus on civilians.
- Use of heavy weapons against entire towns.
- Assault and murder of opposition journalists
- Attacks on the Russian Embassy in Kiev
- Overt glorification of Stepan Bandera by Ukie officials
- Blocking by the AngloZionists of Russian UNSC Resolution condemning the attack on its embassy
- Denial of anti-Jewish hatred amongst the Ukie nationalists
- Invention of anti-Jewish feelings in Novorossia
- Car-bombing of Novorossian officials
- Probable use of gas in the Odessa massacre
- Creation of a hysterically russophobic campaign in the MSM
- Attempts at imposing sanctions on Russia
- Covert sending by NATO countries of fixed and rotary wing aircraft
- Covert use of several hundred western mercenaries (Academi)
- Massacres of wounded soldiers in a hospital
- Sniper killing of random civilians
- Systematic rejection of any negotiations with the people of Novorossia
- Almost systematic rejection of any negotiation with Russia
- Systematic violation of any agreement reached with Russia
- Bombing of churches and hospitals (just happened in the last 24 hours)
- Refusal to provide real escape corridors for trapped civilians
- Illegal cutting-off of water supplies to Crimea (now provided from Russia courtesy of the corps of Russian military engineers)
From my point of view - one of an ex-military analyst - I would say that I am extremely unimpressed by the junta's performance so far.
The junta's death squads have used all the means at their disposal to try to terrorize the people of Novorossia: they began with baseball bats, then knives, then guns, they assault-rifles, then machine guns, then heavy machine guns, then mortars, then heavy mortars, then regular artillery, then multiple rocket launchers, then attack helicopters, then attack aircraft, then cluster munitions, now even white phosphorus. And what did they achieve in military terms:
1) they are more or less holding an airport and one hill near Slaviansk/Kramatorsk
2) they have taken Krasnyi Liman (and committed a massacre in its hospital)
3) they apparently have 1000 or so men surrounded in the Lugansk airport
That's it. They could not even take Slaviansk! This is with force ratios anywhere between 5:1 to 100:1, with heavy firepower, armor and total air supremacy. Sub-pathetic, really...
And, in the process, they have lost hundreds of soldiers who defected to the other side - often with weapons - they have gotten a huge number of their own conscripts killed, one group of senior "Alpha" officers was caught and several paratrooper recon units were made prisoner (the latest one yesterday). In Lugansk Ukie forces appear surrounded and the latest shooting down of an Il-76 by the NDF air defense forces was part of a desperate attempt of the junta to free these forces or, at least, to resupply them. In fact, there are all the signs of a desperate movement by land of Ukrainian armor and infantry to break through these units some of which, according to unconfirmed reports, have already switched sides.
As for the Novorossian Defense Forces (NDF), they now clearly have a solid air-defense network up and running, they seem to have plenty of weapons (even though they still lack some specific types) and most, but not all, of these weapons are truly trophy weapons taken from the Ukies (such as the 3 T-64 tanks recently shown in the news). The initial trickle of volunteers has slowly but steadily become larger (including volunteers from Russia proper) and the NDF is now clearly enjoying some fancy systems which could have only have been provided by Russia (electronic warfare, advanced anti-air systems, etc.). Yes, there are lots of Ukie tanks around Luganks, but as late as this morning a senior NDF officer in the area has said that "we can hold them for at least several months". Finally, and for the very first time, there are signs that the NDF are mounting offensive operations.
I am basing all of the above on admittedly partial information, but to me all the signs are clear and point to one and only one reality: the Ukie offensive is going absolutely nowhere and unless Uncle Sam comes up with a dramatic way of changing the face of the battle, Novorossia will probably withstand the Ukie assault without over Russian intervention.
(TEMPORARY) CONCLUSION:
So far, I see the strategic-level scorecard for the AnlgoZionist as a complete failure. As for the tactical-level scorecard, it is probably too early to call, but I would say that it looks like the Empire is headed for a complete defeat. Of course, these are temporary conclusions and I don't want to sound like Dubya with his notorious "Mission accomplished". But I think that for all of us who get sick in their stomachs each time we hear of the latest Ukie atrocity it is important to keep in mind that so far the neo-Nazis and their AngloZionist masters are losing and that there is no reason to suspect that this trend will somehow reverse itself in the foreseeable future.
We have to also always keep in mind that "lukewarm" as it may be, this is a major war of planetary importance because as Dugin correctly points it is the future of Russia, and therefore of all of Eurasia, which is being decided. Russian parity (I would even argue superiority) in strategic nuclear weapons have made a hot war impossible (at least for a rational actor), but that does not mean that both sides are not engaged in this apparently "lukewarm" war with every bit of energy and power they got! What we are witnessing today is nothing short of a major struggle for survival between the AngloZionist Empire and the "Eurasian project" (for lack of a better word) centered around Russia and China and their attempt to replace the old order by new, multi-polar, dollar-independent, militarily balanced one. Hegemony vs collective security for the entire planet is what is at stake. This is why every time we listen to the latest reports out of Novorossia we have to constantly keep in mind that in reality this is a US-Russian war over the future international order of the planet and not an "ethnic civil war".
As you know, I have been living with a knot in my stomach for weeks now, and with each additional report about the neo-Nazi atrocities committed against the people of Novorossia I get more desperate, more angry and more frustrated. And I have to admit that if the Russians finally openly intervene and beat the crap out of the Ukie death squads (which won't last 24 hours against a real military force) I won't be able to contain myself - I will open a bottle of champagne and dance with my wife across the house. But I also know that the right thing to do is keep our "eyes on the prize" and let this abomination I called "Banderstan" self-destruct without any over Russian help. The latest attack on the Russian embassy in Kiev is not only an outrageous violation of the Vienna Convention, it is also a fantastic admission of impotence, of powerlessness, of irrelevance really. Think of it, a crowd of neo-Nazi thugs overturns a few cars and tosses eggs and stones at an embassy building in downtown Kiev and all the Ukie authorities can do is to order the cops to move out of the way and to send the deputy Foreign Minister to express his support for the crowd. "Слава Україні — Героям Слава" (glory to the Ukraine - to the Heroes Glory!) indeed - some heroic Ukie nationalism at work, there is an "operation" the Ukies can be proud of, something to add to the pantheon of Ukrainian national pride.
[They are as pathetic as they are disgusting, of course. I really wonder how any putative "sane Ukrainian" can live without dying of a combination of shame and self-disgust. But then, that ain't my problem, thank God.]
There is probably more of that sickening Ukie mix of atrocities and buffoonery on the way. Normal civilized people cannot imagine the kind of stuff that these hate-filled psychopaths can come up with. Frankly, I would not put it past them to try an air or missile strike on, say, a kindergarten in Crimea or even in Belgorod. They could also kidnap a delivery man for a Russian company still operating in Kiev or heroically massacre of minibus with an Aeroflot crew on the way to the airport. Whatever! We have to accept the inevitability of such actions because this is all this junta can do - they simply have no civilized diplomatic, commercial, military or other means to prevail against Russia and their own people. But always always keep this in mind: with each such action the Ukies are confessing to their own impotence while digging their own grave.
So even if "ще не вмерла україна" ("the Ukraine is not dead yet" - from the Ukie "national anthem" with words copied from the Polish one and a melody composed by [what else?] a Uniat priest), it's days are counted and, as doctors like to say, the prognosis is poor.
The Saker
FYI - email exchange with a friend about sending money to help Novorossia
Dear friends,
FYI - here is an email exchange I had this morning with a friend which I hope might be of some relevance to those of you who might be contemplating the possibility to send some money to help the people of Novorossia.
Kind regards,
The Saker
-------
Hi Saker, I've commented on your blog occasionally. Thanks for providing that forum for us.
I saw on another blog ( http://sovietoutpost.revdisk.
Would it possible, with your contacts, to find out how we, your readers, can donate to this effort - or if not this, then one like it? (I wish there was some way to get water to those people trapped in the besieged towns. But of course, the US/UKR powers-that-be are blocking any aid to them.) I've read warnings from some in SE Ukraine against donating to any efforts there, as the money will disappear down a Ukrainian black hole of corruption. But since Strelkov himself mentioned this one, it sounds like it might be worth looking into.
Thank you so much for any info you can dig up on this.
FYI - here is an email exchange I had this morning with a friend which I hope might be of some relevance to those of you who might be contemplating the possibility to send some money to help the people of Novorossia.
Kind regards,
The Saker
-------
Hi Saker, I've commented on your blog occasionally. Thanks for providing that forum for us.
I saw on another blog ( http://sovietoutpost.revdisk.
Would it possible, with your contacts, to find out how we, your readers, can donate to this effort - or if not this, then one like it? (I wish there was some way to get water to those people trapped in the besieged towns. But of course, the US/UKR powers-that-be are blocking any aid to them.) I've read warnings from some in SE Ukraine against donating to any efforts there, as the money will disappear down a Ukrainian black hole of corruption. But since Strelkov himself mentioned this one, it sounds like it might be worth looking into.
Thank you so much for any info you can dig up on this.
Dear xxxxx,
Thanks a lot for your email, your interesting info (I never heard of this Strelkov's Spetsnaz) and for your kind and generous offer to help them. However, I have to agree that you should not send money to the Ukraine and my contacts there have specifically warned me against doing so. I wanted to send money to the refugee kids and my contacts replied with a categorical "NO!" because of the amazing corruption there. However, and just to make you feel a little less sad, I can tell you that there is a lot of money in Russia and there are folks in Russia who are truly awash in money who can send it to Strelkov if they want to. It is true that Strelkov and his men, as well as the local population in Slaviansk and Kramatorsk, do have shortages, but that is because Russia is really trying hard not to intervene openly at this point. But I am confident that if/when needed they will be able to get the help they need.
The best thing you (and I) can do at this point is to circulate the information about the true state of affairs in the Ukraine. There is an "information war" going on and we need all the help we can get in this information war. If you use Facebook or Twitter - then post as much info about the Ukraine as you can, if not - then create a mailing list, write to your friends, start a blog, write to editors of news mags, etc. etc. etc. The louder the "rumble" of our protest the better.
It is especially important to denounce the West's
mind-boggling hypocrisy and double-standards and to demand basic justice
for the people of the Ukraine and also demand that the regime in Kiev
behave like a civilized one and not like a gang of lawless freaks.
Thanks a lot for your email, your interesting info (I never heard of this Strelkov's Spetsnaz) and for your kind and generous offer to help them. However, I have to agree that you should not send money to the Ukraine and my contacts there have specifically warned me against doing so. I wanted to send money to the refugee kids and my contacts replied with a categorical "NO!" because of the amazing corruption there. However, and just to make you feel a little less sad, I can tell you that there is a lot of money in Russia and there are folks in Russia who are truly awash in money who can send it to Strelkov if they want to. It is true that Strelkov and his men, as well as the local population in Slaviansk and Kramatorsk, do have shortages, but that is because Russia is really trying hard not to intervene openly at this point. But I am confident that if/when needed they will be able to get the help they need.
The best thing you (and I) can do at this point is to circulate the information about the true state of affairs in the Ukraine. There is an "information war" going on and we need all the help we can get in this information war. If you use Facebook or Twitter - then post as much info about the Ukraine as you can, if not - then create a mailing list, write to your friends, start a blog, write to editors of news mags, etc. etc. etc. The louder the "rumble" of our protest the better.
Saturday, June 14, 2014
Russian Embassy in Kiev under attack - possible chemical attack in the East tonight - situation in Iraq
Juan just emailed me to let me know that the Russian Embassy in Kiev is under attack by neo-Nazi rioters. The attack is streamed live here:
Also, there is a 90%
probability the gaz attack in Novorossiya will be tonight during the
seizing and burning of the Russian Embassy in Kiev as "The World's"
attention is focused on Kiev.
I would add that my "beloved" BBC only reports Poroshenko's threats following the downing of the Ukie Il-76 by the NDF.
Also,
While I do not have the energy to follow the events in both locations, what is taking place in Iraq is nothing short of amazing. Think of it - when Uncle Sam attacked Iraq, al-Qaeda basically did not exist there (except in Saddam's jails). Now, after a decade of "US-style nation building" the local franchise of al-Qaeda is in full control of Mosul, Falludjah, Tikrit, Ramadi and many other. And now, years after Dubya's "mission accomplished" we have Barak "no we can't" Obama having to decide whether to bring back the "official" US military in (the "private" or "unofficial" never left) or whether to provide air cover for the Iranian Pasdaran. Or maybe attack them too? Who knows what kind of idiotic plan Obombya and his advisers can come up with? What is certain is that this is a total disgrace for a country which fancies itself as a superpower. Think of it:
Lebanon: US wanted a new Middle-East. Fail.
Iraq: US wanted to built a client-state. Fail.
Afghanistan: US wanted to eliminate the Taliban. Fail.
Pakistan: US wanted to eliminate the Taliban. Fail.
Syria: US wanted to regime-change Assad. Fail.
Egypt: US wanted to create a client state. Fail.
Libya: US wanted to create a client state. Fail.
Chechnia: US wanted to subvert Russia and control the Caucaus. Fail.
Georgia: US wanted to subvert Russia and control the Caucasus. Fail.
KSA: US wanted an alliance with KSA over Syria. Fail
Qatar: US wanted Qatari support over oil prices and Russi. Fail.
Yemen: US wanted to destroy al-Qaeda. Fail.
Somalia: 20 years ago the US wanted to take Somalia under control. Fail.
And the list goes on and on and one all around the planet. Remember when Obama said that Russia was a "regional power"? I wonder whether he said that with envy as the US is not even capable of dealing with Mexico, nevermind the middle east.
These examples also show how weak in impotent the US military has become. It is just powerful enough to make a bloody mess out of a small country, but if we accept that warfare is the pursuit of other means, than the US military is basically useless as it has failed to secure a US political objectives since a long while already, no less than 20 years or even many more...
It will be interesting to see what happens in Iraq. What is certain is that Iran will eventually have to fix that mess. That, in turn, will have a direct impact on the war against Syria which, in turn, will strengthen Hezbollah which, in turn, will strengthen the position of Iraq. There is a American expression for the US foreign policy. It is called a "clusterf..." and that is exactly what it is.
Which makes me wonder how a single European can seriously believe that handing over the entire Ukrainian crisis to the US is a smart idea?
What would it take to wake up these comatose EU politicians?
As for the central Europeans a la Poland, Lithuania, Romania or Bulgaria - they picked Uncle Sam as their patron and sold their souls to him for pennies (talk about betting on the wrong horse!). And for that they will always be treated with contempt by their neighbors, both from the East and from the West. Oh yes, there will be hell to pay for those who sold out for so cheap and, frankly, I cannot honestly say that I feel sorry for them. As the Russian saying goes "they got what they fought for".
The Saker
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
Appeal for help: can somebody translate this into English?
Dear friends,
Is there somebody here who could translate this video into English? Especially, the segment between 1:20 and 11:41. But, of course, translating the full video would be better.
If somebody could volunteer his/her time and effort to translate this video, I would recommend posting a note here in the comments section so that others do not duplicate the effort. Maybe some of you could get in touch with each other to get that done faster?
The best result would be if somebody could 1) translate the audio 2) add subtitles to the video and 3) upload that somewhere on YouTube or Dailymotion. Then all I would have to do is use the embed code and post the video here.
Thanks a lot in advance!
The Saker
-------
Is there somebody here who could translate this video into English? Especially, the segment between 1:20 and 11:41. But, of course, translating the full video would be better.
If somebody could volunteer his/her time and effort to translate this video, I would recommend posting a note here in the comments section so that others do not duplicate the effort. Maybe some of you could get in touch with each other to get that done faster?
The best result would be if somebody could 1) translate the audio 2) add subtitles to the video and 3) upload that somewhere on YouTube or Dailymotion. Then all I would have to do is use the embed code and post the video here.
Thanks a lot in advance!
The Saker
-------
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