Monday, August 4, 2014

Ukraine SITREP by Gleb Bazov

The Shrinking Cauldron - The Surrender of the 72nd Brigade


The Southern Cauldron has entered the final stages of its existence; the agony of the units deprived of provisions has begun. 

The Surrender of the 72nd Brigade

Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov

Today, the remnants of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade fled into the territory of the Russian Federation. According to Russia Today:

Four hundred and thirty eight Ukrainian servicemen have requested asylum in Russia and moved into the Russian territory. According to ITAR-TASS, this was announced by the Border Guard department of the Federal Security Service ("FSB") of Russia.


Map: Operational information from the Cauldron.

No agreement with respect to the surrender of all the surrounded has been reached yet (the negotiations that were reported earlier are still ongoing). Accordingly, the Cauldron is starting to break up into parts. The 72nd Brigade for all intents and purposes has ceased to exist due to ammunition and food rations running out. They held on while they still had resources and then began to exit into the territory of the Russian Federation – at first in separate groups, followed by the surviving remnants of the once full-fledged brigade.

The hardware was all abandoned at their positions, which continue to be controlled by Junta troops that have not yet surrendered. When militiamen would drive up on tanks as close as 400 metres away from the positions of the Junta, there was no return fire – there is simply nothing to fire back with. Some of the soldiers of the 72nd Brigade had no rounds left during the surrender; others had 1-2 magazines per automatic rifle.

There is also information that among those who did not surrender there are Polish mercenaries, which essentially explains the stubbornness of the resistance (a serious international scandal is possible).

Those who remain in this part of the Cauldron were given an ultimatum to surrender and exit to Russia and not to touch the hardware. Otherwise, the Grads will start working again. Strained arguments are ongoing there now; military commanders are reasoning that the potential for resistance has been exhausted and that they must surrender so as not to kill people in vain. Pravoseki [Note: Praviy Sector militants], mercenaries and the political zealots are demanding that the resistance be continued at all cost. As a result, a complete surrender is likely impossible – the majority of the military personnel will surrender and others will be leveled [with Grad MLRS], particularly in view of the fact that they have nothing to respond with.

I expect that this group will cease to exist in the course of 2-3 days, following which the Cauldron will shrink in half, and the Militia will start dealing with the remnants of the 24th and the 79th Brigades.


Predicted Retreat Routes for the Troops Surrounded in the Southern Cauldron.

In order for you better to understand what has happened, those who surrendered were the remnants of the 72nd Brigade that were driven from Izvarino and Sverdlovsk toward the border with the Russian Federation. At the same time, the Cauldron continues to exist in the gap between Marinovka and Birukovo, where the remnants of the 79ths Separate Aeromobiles Brigade and the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade, as well as the various reinforcement units and punitive formations, continue to hold defensive positions.

Overall, the Southern Cauldron now has truly entered the final stages of its existence; the agony of the units deprived of provisions has begun.


Photograph: Ukrainian Troops After Crossing into the Russian Territory.

And this note by Russia Today is specifically about those who intend to cross the Russian border in the nearest future. They simply face the same problems as the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade (“OMBR”).

One more group of Ukrainian servicemen intends to cross the border into Russia after almost 440 soldiers and officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces crossed into the territory of the adjacent country in the night of August 4th. As reported by ITAR-TASS, quoting the head of the press service of the Border Guard department of the FSB in the Rostov region, the exact number of servicemen that intend to cross into the Russian Federation is still unknown. 

The Junta’s Version

A group of servicemen of the 72nd Motorized Brigade was forced to retreat into the territory of the Russian Federation because they ran out of ammo during a battle with the terrorists. This was announced to RBK-Ukraine by Alexey Dmitrashkovskiy, a representative of the press-centre of the antiterrorist operation in Donbass.

According to Dmitrashkovskiy: “Servicemen of the 72nd Brigade divided into two units. The first unit broke through the ring of terrorists, and the second unit covered these servicemen. After that, one of the units had their ammo and provisions run out. Military hardware that was on the battlefield was damaged. After that the personnel was forced to transport into the area of the border crossing checkpoint in Russia. According to latest information, the servicemen are in the territory of Russia. The number of the servicemen is being confirmed.” According to his statements, reinforcements have already arrived to assist the servicemen that covered those who were breaking through the ring of terrorists.

Earlier, the Russian Federal Security Service (“FSB”) stated that more than 400 Ukrainian soldiers have requested asylum in the Russian Federation. As it was clarified, a humanitarian corridor was opened for the Ukrainian military and they were allowed to cross into Russia.

The remnants of the 79th Aeromobile and the 24th Motorized Rifle Brigade and Battalion Shakhter continue to remain in the Southern Cauldron. Just south of this grouping is Battalion Azov. 

The 72nd Brigade

Original: El Murid LiveJournal
Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov

Negotiations with respect to the surrender of one more group of the punitive forces are ongoing. The identity of the specific unit involved has not been disclosed.

Most likely, the sonderkommando Azov and Shakhter will not be surrenedering. Other than that, the shattered units of the 3rd Spetsnaz Regiment also continue to remain near Izvarino. Accordingly, it is too early to talk about the Southern Cauldron being liquidated. According to all indication, it will likely shrink in size and the Militia will continue to blockade it. In principle, as it is, this grouping has been sitting there quietly, only occasionally shooting. When we drove from Krasnodon to Sverdlovsk, we passed through the territory formally controlled by the grouping – without any problems whatsoever.

It appears that the only benefit that can be gained from the fact of the surrender of the punitive forces is the shrinking of the frontlines and the freeing up of a relatively small part of the Militia forces. It looks like this reserve (if it is at all created) will be redeployed to Snezhnoye and Shakhtersk to reinforce the positions there.

Now, I know Berezin raises a lot of eyebrows and his statements here certainly will. I leave it to your discretion what to do with this, but sending anyways. GB

[Note by the Saker: I concur with Gleb, the Ukies have already declared THREE partial mobilizations, where does all that manpower go?  The real casualty figures on the Ukrainian side must be staggering and absolutely horrible.  The Saker]
Three Statements by Fyodor Berezin (Strelkov's Deputy)

Preamble: Provided for you in reverse chronological order are three recent statements by Fyodor Berezin, Igor Strelkov's Deputy, with respect to the Ukrainian army's losses at the front in Donbass. His statements will appear to many to be controversial. The writer of this note, for one, has no difficulty believing Berezin, who bases his reports on concrete information received from the battlefront.
August 3, 2014 - Video: Fyodor Berezin, DPR Deputy Minister of Defence Speaks About the Ratio of Forces at the Front

Reporter: So, not too long ago, a resource called “The Free Information Zone” published an article comparing the weaponry of the Militia with that of the Ukrainian army. And so, we were hoping to have this information either confirmed or denied and, in general, to obtain some kind of commentary. According to this article, the Junta’s advantage in terms of military hardware is six hundred to five. In other words, where we have five tanks, the Ukrainian Junta has six hundred. The advantage in personnel is ten to one. In other words, the Junta has about thirty five thousand men, while we have five to seven thousand. This is according to various information. What can you say about this article by an allied resource?

Fyodor Berezin: It is elementary. It is understandable that Ukraine has hoarded a lot of tanks dating back to the days of the USSR. Right? And all of them have been concentrated here, against the Donetsk Republic. And if some Romania attacked now, it would occupy the entire Ukraine – it would be that easy. There are no tanks and no Grads left there, and probably no soldiers too. Unless they call up the disabled.

With respect to the ratio of the forces – it is obvious that a whole bunch of regions of Ukraine will exceed two regions, considering, particularly, that they are incomplete. Accordingly, there do possess superiority – it is there – but so what? In whose favour is the real ratio of losses at the front? In other words …

Reporter: Well, thirteen thousand Ukrainian died – the Junta’s soldiers – so we can see …

Fyodor Berezin: I do not know how many of them died [in total]. I know that this night and the previous night, just in the area of Shakhtersk, there is approximately a thousand dead on the Ukrainian side. That is an ocean of blood. A sea of dead Ukrainian soldiers. And they keep crawling and crawling here. And conscription centres keep recruiting them; they keep crying that they are forcibly conscripted. So what is it? They are forced to go to war to their death, and they do not resist? Do not join this army that sends you to your death!

First it is forty of them, then it is one hundred and twenty five, then one hundred, and so on – I mean just tanks, BMPs, and other armoured vehicles. Whole columns of them are destroyed; every night we destroyed several of them, and it is all left burning there. And inside them are people, all these Ukrainian guys that decided to come to fight here, to demonstrate their patriotism. They perform their so-called duty to their Ukie motherland – to Poroshenko’s fascist motherland.

Ukrainian mothers, please take your children back. Wives take back your husbands. Children take back your father, while they are still alive. Or the entire Western Ukraine soon enough will lose its gene pool. Otherwise all of them will find their death here. Despite everything, we will expel them all. If they resist too much, we will escort them further. They should leave before it’s too late and leave the hardware here, while it is still functional. Give it another few days, and it will all be destroyed.

Be it one to a hundred or one to ten, there is no difference. Understand, they burn and burn regardless.
15:29 – July 3, 2014 – Commentary from Fyodor Berezin (Strelkov’s Deputy)

And nevertheless.

Judging by the reactions to my previous posting (with respect to the enemy’s armoured vehicle losses, totaling 125 units, near Shakhtersk) nobody believes anything.

No wonder. I would not have believed it myself. Even in my books I have always tried to make losses fifty-fifty. However, today the situation is different. Here is something, just for your information.

On average – on regular days – the Kiev Junta loses between 30 and 40 armoured vehicles a day. The main area where they suffer losses is Shakhtersk and Snezhnoye. Now also added to that is Maryinka and one more direction near Donetsk.

On average, every one or two days, the Junta army sustains very serious losses. I.e. up to 100 units of military hardware and between 700 and 1000 soldiers killed. And these are not fairytales.

I do not know how much armour the Juntoids have left. Do not have time to engage in analytics. I presume, and there is information that confirms these speculations, that they are already using old tank stocks from the Warsaw Pact. We have evidence with respect to Polish hardware.

We catch mercenaries. Moreover, from very remote areas of the world. For now, not everything can be disclosed.

And, as usual, an appeal to the moms of the western regions. Take away your children from Donbass. Otherwise, every single one of them will burn in the “boxes” [Note: armoured vehicles] or next to them.
22:48 - July 29, 2014 – Briefing from Fyodor Berezin (Strelkov’s Deputy)

Yesterday [July 28, 2014], Shakhtersk witnessed the Prokhorovka of our times.

The total enemy losses of military hardware over the past day in Shakhtersk are 125 (one hundred and twenty five) vehicles, including tanks, BMPs, BTRs. Multiply this number by the size of their crews, and you get a very impressive result.

We warned them, did we not? Get the hell out of Donbass! And you did not believe us. Mothers, wives, sisters! Take your Ukie warriors back! Or you will completely lose the Ukie nation’s gene pool. Where are the Maidans protesting the mobilization? Poroshenko, my chocolate one, your own will soon tear you to pieces!