Monday, March 14, 2011

My first big disagreement with Hezbollah?

From the reports I hear on al-Jazeera it appears that Lebanon is supporting the idea of a UN-imposed and, obviously and inevitably, US/NATO enforced no-fly zone over Libya.  And by "Lebanon" what is meant is the Hezbollah supported, if not lead, Lebanese government.

As I already wrote, a no-fly zone over Libya is a terrible idea which, if implemented, will create an open-ended Imperial military intervention which nobody will control besides the USraelian leaders.

And please don't tell me about a 'limited mandate' or any such stuff.  I have seen with my own eyes, day by day, the reality of what inevitably happens with such "limited mandates":

First, a limited mission is authorized.  Then the reality on the ground creates what is called "mission creep" in which the UN authorized  military forces assume more and more roles (whether deliberately or not).  Finally, in order to safe face and to avoid embarrassing the political leaders, the mandate is adapted through what I call a process of "mandate-creep" and the new roles of the force receive full legitimacy.  Then, go back to step one above and start again.  That is exactly what happened in Bosnia.

How the Hezbollah leadership seems to not understand this is totally beyond me.  I fully and totally understand Hezbollah's loathing of Gaddafi and, frankly, I share it.  But booting out Gaddafi only to turn over Libya to the USraelian Empire is a strategic miscalculation of the first order.

My last hope now is that Hezbollah has some rock-solid information that Russia (or China) will, if needed, veto such a resolution.  But even if they do have such information, they should not trust Russia (or China) and neither should Hezbollah engage in such cynical calculations.

That Hezbollah got it wrong on Bosnia I can understand.  The political pressure was definitely too great.  That Hezbollah does not have the courage to take a stand against the crazed Chechen Wahabis, I deplore very much but again, this is a Muslim vs non-Muslim situation in which the political pressures are huge.  But in the case of Libya, this is a situation of Sunnis versus secularists in which the Sunnis are being used by the USA (just as was the case in Bosnia and Chechnia).  But this time, the outcome of the struggle will directly affect the entire Arab world.  Just visualize a Libyan version of Camp Bondsteel.

I say that with great regret, but if the Hezbollah ministers did, indeed, approve the concept of a no-fly zone over Libya, then I am tremendously disappointed with them.

The Saker