Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Time to repeat and clarify a few things about the current crisis in the eastern Ukraine

From a lot of comments I am getting I feel that this is the time to repeat a few things and clarify others.

First, I completely agree with A.B.'s comment who said that Russia does not want the Ukraine to rise up.  The three reasons he gives are, I believe, spot on.  However, I do believe that there are scenarios in which Russia will have to intervene, such as a bloody repression by the neo-Nazis against the Russian speakers.

The problem is that the more the revolutionary regime in Kiev and its western patrons (USA, US, EU) push for the maximalist solution (no federation, one language, no referendum, full scale repression) the more the eastern Ukraine will try to get out of Banderastan.

Furthermore, I would argue that the Russian-speaking population in the east of the Ukraine really has zero hopes of getting some kind of more or less civilized and reasonable negotiated agreement with the freaks in power in Kiev.  Therefore, while Russia does not need the eastern Ukraine, the Russian speakers in the eastern Ukraine have little or no hope except to have a Russian intervention.

The fact that the Russian speakers are weak invites more, not less, violence from the neo-Fascist camp.  In other words, getting organized and armed would assure less, not more, bloodshed (that is for the retard who accused me of wanting more bloodshed in eastern Ukraine).

The size of the crowds matter, but only to some degree.  Far more important is the degree of determination of the anti-Fascist demonstrators.  First, in almost all conflicts the majority stays at home and watches TV and, second, it does not take a lot of manpower to organize an effective resistance as long as they resisting forces is determined and organized.

Some commentators have tried to minimize the seriousness of the events taking place in the Ukraine.  That is quite futile and the best proof of this is not what I, or RT, say, but the fact that the entire political leadership of the revolutionary regime in Kiev has relocated to the eastern Ukraine to try to get the situation under control while in the Kiev Parliament they are having fist fights over this issue.  The undeniable fact is that the regime in Kiev is clearly in a near panic mode.  This is also true of the EU and USA who have made rather silly and over the top statements.  Anybody who thinks that this is all just the result of Russian propaganda urgently needs to stop watching the Idiot-Tube.

Finally, I would note that anybody going to a pro-Russian (speaker or country) demonstrator is taking a huge risk.  These people got attacked, beat up, arrested, disappeared, tortured, their cars burned, their homes and family attacked and they now even get shot at.  This is not Hong Kong and the atmosphere of real fear is being reported by every single source I know of.  Even journalists have been attacked, beat up, tortured (fingernails pulled) so simply stating that there are "few" demonstrators just is not good enough, one has to look at the context and the very real risks ever one of these demonstrators takes.  Even when they are in relatively large numbers (say several thousands), the demonstrators got attacked as soon as they began to disperse.  That happened many times and in many cities.  As for well-known activists, they have been threatened, kidnapped and even killed, some have even had murdered friends.

Bottom line: the Banderites in Kiev are scrambling to get the situation under control while the size of the crowds is, in fact, quite amazing considering the risks involved.

So those who try to explain away what is happening in the eastern Ukraine by either minimizing the figures of people involved or by denying that the situation is extremely serious are misleading (whether deliberately or by ignorance) other commentators here, which I way I decided to cross some t's and dot some i's to set the record straight.

Stay tuned and kind regards,

The Saker