Thursday, August 28, 2008

Russia is loosing the diplomatic war

Following the recent meeting of the G7 Russia was hoping to get some support from the SCO conference in Dushanbe. It did hot happen. While the Russian media and Russian politicians did try to put the best spin possible on the declaration adopted at the conference, the fact is that while it did speak about the Russian role in the Caucasus it did not endorse or support the Russian military operation or, even less so, the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Combine with all kinds of outright bellicose statements from the Ukraine, the UK and other European nations and it looks to me like Russia is completely isolated.

Does that really matter?

Actually, I think it does. While I don't think that NATO is about to initiate an attack on Russian forces in the region, I there is a real risk that the silent acquiescence of the international community will embolden the USA to take most provocative actions. What do I mean? I think that with the current administration in the White House and the rabid anti-Russian rhetoric of McCaine there is a real risk that the US and/or Europe will do two things a) actively re-arm the Georgians and b) send forces into Georgia. I know, this sounds crazy, but do did the occupation of Iraq, the the Israeli attack on Lebanon in 2006 or Saakashvili's recent attack on South Ossetia. Let's face it - the unique combination of arrogance, ignorance and imperial hubris which has become the trademark of US foreign policy can, and should, be expected to result in policy decisions which would appear "crazy" to any rational observer.

I am particularly baffled, and disappointed, by China's rather spineless approach to all this. Don't the Chinese realize that they are next in line to face the wrath of the Empire?!

Clearly, the Russian diplomats have failed to make their case in Dushanbe.