Ukraine Goes to War – and Always Will as Long as Maidan Holds Power

by Alexander Mercouris for Russia Insider

As the economic situation in Ukraine goes from bad to worse the response of the Ukrainian government's attention is focused instead on resuming the war in the Donbass.

Over the last few weeks we have heard boasts from President Poroshenko that the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian military have been fully restored since its defeat last summer and that all its losses in armour (according to Poroshenko 65% of the total with which the Ukrainian army started its offensive in June) have been made good. We have also had a succession of mobilisation decrees calling up a grand total of 250,000 men in three waves extending to June.

All of this has been accompanied with the usual fiery rhetoric against Russia and the people in the Donbass the Ukrainian government calls “separatists” or “terrorists”.

Meanwhile a tragic shelling of a bus near Volnovakha has been blamed by the government on the rebels, leading to staged protests attended by government officials in Kiev and elsewhere.

The sequel has been a renewal of the fighting on a scale unseen since the Minsk Protocol was signed on 5th September 2014. Over the course of the fighting the rebels appear to have captured the new terminal of Donetsk airport (they already held the old terminal), a Ukrainian counter attack to recapture the new terminal contrary to Ukrainian reports appears to have failed, at least for the moment, there has been renewed shelling across the whole front, including indiscriminate shelling of Donetsk, an air raid was launched on the rebel held town of Gorlovka and the rebels for their part have shelled government positions near Mariupol.

How did we get to this position?

The short answer is that the Ukrainian government has refused to carry out the peace process it committed itself to in the Minsk Protocol. The constitutional negotiations that were supposed to happen and which the government committed itself to in the Minsk Protocol and which were supposed to lead to a final settlement of the Ukrainian conflict have never taken place.

The Minsk Protocol also committed the government to extensive decentralisation of the Donbass preliminary to a final peace settlement and to elections there. The elections duly took place but the government did not recognise them or their outcome and though the Ukrainian parliament passed a law for the decentralisation of the Donbass, the Ukrainian government then almost immediately reversed it.

Previously, back in September, I discussed the Minsk Protocol in detail here, where I said

“…..the Protocol is in my opinion a total red herring. The Protocol is not a contract or treaty. There is no court or tribunal that will arbitrate on the meaning of its words. All the sides will construe it as they wish. The junta will not of course construe it as I have done and nor will its western backers even though my interpretation is undoubtedly the correct one. The junta will continue to call the NAF (the “Novorossian Armed Forces” - AM) “terrorists” and will continue to deny they are the representatives of the Donbas whether they win the election or not. Certainly the junta will not recognise an election the NAF wins or any declaration of independence the NAF makes. For what it’s worth in my opinion there is little chance of the terms of such an election being agreed upon or such an election taking place whilst the Donbas remains part of the Ukraine”.

Every word in this paragraph has come true. The Ukrainian government still refuses to recognise the Donbass leaders Zakharchenko and Plotnisky as the representatives of the people of the Donbass even though their signatures are on the Minsk Protocol, which the Ukrainian government negotiated with them and itself signed. Elections in the Donbass did take place in November but as I predicted the Ukrainian government did not agree their terms. The Ukrainian government still calls Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky and the other Donbass leaders “terrorists”.

The reason I was able to make that prediction in September with such confidence and why that prediction has in every respect come true, is because the nature of the Ukrainian government allowed for no other.

The basic truth about the crisis in Ukraine and why there is a war there - the one that many people especially in the West refuse to acknowledge - is that the faction that seized power in Ukraine through the February 2014 coup is structurally incapable of negotiation or compromise with those it considers its opponents.

I discussed the nature of this faction when I discussed the results of the elections in Ukraine last November. Briefly, the whole purpose of the February coup was so that the faction in Ukraine that holds power now could achieve the unrestricted dominance of Ukrainian society which is its only way of making true its vision of a unitary, monolingual, monocultural Ukraine that is forever distanced from Russia.

Given the diversity of Ukrainian society, it cannot compromise with its opponents since were it to do so that would jeopardise the entire project that is the reason for its existence and the justification for its hold on power. That is why it acted in February to eliminate from Ukrainian political life the faction that had held power in Ukraine before and why it remains committed to eliminating its opponents in the Donbass now.

It is also incidentally the reason for the repeated attacks on the Lenin statues discussed by Paul Robinson here. Given the regime’s overriding, aggressive drive to reshape Ukraine in its own image, it cannot tolerate the existence of these statues precisely because so many Ukrainians adhere to them and by doing so hold fast to a different vision of Ukraine from the one the regime has. The very reason why Robinson says it is a mistake to attack these statues is therefore for the regime a compelling reason to destroy them. The statues have to be eliminated from Ukraine just as opponents who think of Ukraine differently must be.

It is this drive - not Russia’s actions - which is why Ukraine is in a state of perpetual war and crisis and why atrocities like the 2nd May 2014 Odessa fire can happen without being properly investigated or the perpetrators brought to account.

Though the Maidan regime is deeply divided and factionalised, its drive to remake Ukraine and to eliminate all opponents of its vision, is the common denominator of all its factions. As factional differences intensify as the economic situation deteriorates, fulfilment of the drive through war increasingly becomes the way the regime retains coherence, making a renewal of the war inevitable.

What this means in practice is that negotiations between the Ukrainian government and the Donbass as a route to peace in Ukraine are all but impossible. As Yanukovych repeatedly discovered during the Maidan crisis (see our discussion of his ouster here), any attempt to achieve a compromise is bound in the end to fail since the Maidan movement which holds power in Ukraine now is structurally unable to compromise.

What this means is that there cannot be peace in Ukraine whilst the present government survives there and whilst Ukraine retains its existing borders unless overwhelming pressure is brought to bear on the government by its Western backers to compromise in a way that left to itself it will never do. Nor can there be any hope of economic stabilisation in Ukraine when the government’s focus is so single mindedly elsewhere.

This reality is now well understood by all the parties in Ukraine itself. It is also widely understood in Russia. The unanswered question of the Ukrainian crisis is how far it is understood in the West. The answer I suspect is very little. This is why all the West’s pressure is on Russia and the Donbass, where it is not needed and where it achieves nothing, and none is on the Ukrainian government, where it is really needed and where it might do some good.

That is is why we also still hear Western declarations of support for Ukraine and its government. Given Ukrainian realities, as a way of achieving peace in Ukraine, that is almost the worst thing Western governments can do.

The US cannot start a major war in Ukraine

By Nikolai Starikov
Translated by Val from Osa

http://www.vz.ru/opinions/2014/12/25/722171.html

How long the West is willing to pay for the crumbling economy of Ukraine without guarantees of the beginning of its war with Russia? The Western strategy rule says: lost control over the territory - create the Antithesis.

It is possible to understand what is happening in Ukraine, it is much more difficult to evaluate and forecast the development of events. Whatever the case, it is necessary to consistently follow one rule: set emotions aside. Blood, death and destruction are the most serious emotional blows, but if you follow your emotions, neither proper assessment nor correct forecast will result.

Therefore, as hard it can be, set emotions aside. To assess the geopolitical game (and this is what we are looking at) we need only the head. Only conscious manipulators want you to think with your heart (and vote with your heart - as for Yeltsin in 1996).

The United States and the West are facing of the strongest crises in its history. The strength and depth of the problem are compounded by the fact that ... the West has won. It incorporated practically all of Europe, crushed, to varying degrees, the whole world with a few exceptions.

Therein lies the problem – all its life the West lived by robbery. Now those who can be robbed are fewer and fewer, and those with whom it is necessary to share the "stolen goods", that is the standard of living that rests on unrestricted dollar emissions, are more and more. Hence the huge national debt. In the United States it is 18 trillion dollars, but such debts, and even worse ratios of the national debt to GDP, exist in all so-called developed countries.

What solution the US and its closest allies are looking for in this situation? It is now evident to everyone. The solution is war. Chaos. But this chaos and this war must lead to a "controlled collapse".

As a result the US must eliminate two threats to its power - China and Russia. Ideally, make them clash with each other. To do this the US need to change regime in one of these countries. Obviously, the Americans think that the regime change in Russia is an easier task.

The question is how to achieve this? Orange technologies did not work in 2011, Putin became president again.

What the West does when it loses in any territory is most important for understanding the events in Ukraine.

When we talk about a Western loss we mean the failure of its plans and loss of control over a certain area, full or partial.

What do the Western strategists do in such a situation?

1949. Britain is "kicked out" of India. Before leaving the British set up the Anti-India - a new state of Pakistan. Tensions, military conflicts between the new states ensue. In short, many opportunities for the Anglo-Saxons.

Again in 1949. As a result of the civil war in China, pro-Soviet Mao Zedong wins. The US lose control over China. What do they do? Create the Anti-China -Taiwan. Evacuate there the army of Chiang Kai-shek under the protection of the US Navy. Tensions, the permanent possibility of war between China and the Anti-China ensue. Tiananmen Square, 1989, Beijing - who can tell the "desperate" mainland Chinese from the agents of the Taiwanese special services?

Attention please. In the geopolitical game to grant a diplomatic recognition is to follow the current 'national' interests, and nothing more. First, the United States recognizes Taiwan as China. For those who do not know: until 1973 the representative of Taiwan at the United Nations was seated as the representative of China. But later Washington changes its position, recognizes Beijing and ceases to recognize Taipei. At the same time it strongly supports Taiwan and prevents the reunification of the two "Chinas"

Let's not stray far into history. The rule of the permanent Anglo-Saxon Western strategy states: lost control over the territory - create Antithesis.

In 2011 the West loses control of Russia - not completely yet, but its plans to deny Putin another presidential term fail. The dismantling of the fifth column begins, Russia strongly defends its interests in the world.

What is the West to do? Create Antithesis. That is the Anti-Russia.

And the Anglo-Saxons start creating it, the soil is prepared in Ukraine. Propaganda starts in 1991 and even earlier, militants are trained, money is allocated, the elite is bought and well fed.

According to the US plans, Yanukovych should be removed during the elections in 2015. Remove him in such a way as to launch anti-Russian hysteria and begin to create the Anti-Russia from Ukraine. Circumstances force an earlier start, but according to the main rule: not the peaceful departure of Yanukovych is required, but a bloody overthrow in order to blame Russia.

What is happening today in Ukraine is nothing more than the creation of the Anti-Russia. Propaganda, hate, readiness to destroy and kill on the part of the nationalists and some deceived common citizens.

Where do the US go with that? To war between Ukraine and Russia. On the "initiative" of Ukraine. When? When they pump up the Ukrainian army, equip it, create it, and prepare it. It will take about five years. After that the US will try to pit the two parts of the same nation against each other, set Ukraine against Russia. Occasion - Crimea.

Were the Crimea not reunited with Russia, it would still remain an excuse. Basing the Russian army in Crimea, pro-Russian population living there would give a lot of opportunities for the organization of conflicts and provocations. Therefore, regardless of the actions of Putin and the people of Crimea the Western plan would remain the same.

What can stop the development of this terrible scenario of sliding into a major war between brothers?

Support of those in Ukraine itself who do not agree with this turn of events.

The West creates the Anti-Russia, Russia must help and support the Anti-anti-Russia.

When in the Southeast of Ukraine the people who do not agree with the Kiev's coup rose up, few had a clear idea that they were “blocking the road” of such a terrible scenario. The presence of the Anti-anti-Russia as a part of a federalized Ukraine, refusing either to arm for the West, nor to pull the chestnuts out of the fire for it, blocked the Western plans to unleash the Ukrainian-Russian war. Remember the end of the spring of 2014?

Moscow's insistent calls for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, for federalization, for negotiations. Moscow needs a unified Ukraine, where the pro-Russian part of the society will "tie" the hands of the militants and bought politicians, and will not allow to draw the whole Ukrainian people into the war.

The West needs not the peace, not the prosperity of Ukraine. It needs a militarized state with an aggressive ideology in the form of hatred directed against Russia.

Kiev begins aggressive actions against Donbass. Immediately the propaganda about the "terrorists" and the Russian military starts. Military actions, conducted with cruelty to civilians, give the West two possibilities:

- To win by military means and then start the planned collapse of the economy of Ukraine as the beginning of its preparation for war with Russia. The well fed do not want to fight. The West can blame Russia for the difficulties and hardships, whereas the military service provides an income, albeit a tiny one;

- To draw Russia into war, forcing her to send troops into Ukraine. The defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces does not matter for the West. It wants not the victory but the war itself.

And the more Ukrainian citizens will die in the fratricidal war, the better for the West – the rebellious Slavic nation eliminates itself. As a result of the war in Ukraine the West will try to repeat 1917 and "overthrow the bloody Kremlin regime." All of it in order to take the course toward preparation of the war between Russia and China.

And then a problem happened. Neither military success nor the military invasion by Russia and its participation in the civil conflict was achieved.

And then what? That's what.

The existence of the DNR and LNR as Anti-anti-Russia is the key to inability of the West to start a war between Ukraine and Russia.

The cannonball on its leg does not let the United States to push Kiev toward this Great War with tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of victims.

That is why Moscow is helping Donbass in every way possible that is why Sergei Lavrov says that we are for the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

That is why Russia does not recognize the DNR and LNR as independent states. To recognize them, to let them secede means to launch countdown for war with Ukraine. In this scenario the Western plan kicks in: there is Russia, there is Anti-Russia, and there is Novorossia. Anti-anti-Russia is no more. In case of incorporation of Donbass into Russia, those in Washington will stand up and give a standing ovation. This is it: the war becomes practically inevitable. The image of Russia as the enemy is created by Russia itself.

In today's situation the Russian tactics in Ukraine are the only correct ones. US must pay to support 40 million people, Russia must help 3 million people in the Donbass and 1.5 million refugees. Moscow constantly insists on negotiations, not allowing the aggressor being shaped by the west to "remove the weight" from its leg, not allowing DNR and LNR to be defeated militarily.

How long will the West be willing to pay for the crumbling economy of Ukraine without guarantees to begin its war with Russia? These guys do nothing without a reason, they do not throw money away. Even to the militants in Chechnya in the 90's they gave no dollars, instead they gave them clichés for printing fake dollars.

Self-financing - is the principle of the Anglo-Saxon politics, in extreme cases a refund within a short period of time. A striking example: the Bolsheviks paying with Russia's gold through Swedish banks and the subsequent concessions, today's Libyan "freedom fighters" with the oil dollars leaving Libya for unknown destinations.

Time is of great importance today. The bet of the West – to organize a new Maidan in Russia, now that the path to war in Ukraine was blocked by the courage and determination of the DNR and LNR militia fighters. The bet of Russia – wait till the West loses its interest in Ukraine because of high costs without any tangible benefits.

Washington's desire to get “at least something" leads to the pressure on Europe and the paradoxical desire of the Europeans not to allow the construction of the "South Stream".

Paradox? No paradox. Washington wants to use the instability of Ukraine at least for a possibility of gas blackmail of Moscow. And Europe.

That is the essence of current and past events in Ukraine.

And the last thing I want to say in this regard.

Few in today's Ukraine understand what a tremendous role the courage of the Donbass residents plays in today's world politics. They are rescuing the entire Russian world today. And the paradox, they save the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens.

The same children that today are "jumping" in Ukrainian schools, whose parents collect money for ATO, support the Kiev authorities, in case of defeat Donbass, in a very short period of time they will become gun fodder, according to the US plan.

That's what all of us need to remember, regardless of our current citizenship.

The US, Canada and the Ukraine refuse to condemn the heroization of Nazism

It is often argued whether the Ukrainian junta is Nazi or not.  I would strongly argue that even though Poroshenko did not come out, make a Nazi salute and declare "I am a Nazi" all the signs point to the conclusion that the regime in Kiev has its ideological roots in the Nazi past.  The latest example of that "filiation" can be found in this absolutely amazing event last week:  only three countries - the US, Canada and the Ukraine voted against a UN Resolution condemning the heroization of Nazism.  The EU was not much better: it abstained.  This development is so crazy, so insane, that it is important to have access to the original document which was voted on.

Here is the full text of the Resolution:

http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N14/604/26/PDF/N1460426.pdf

You can also get this text from here:

http://www.mediafire.com/view/94n40m3x00dr355/N1460426.pdf

Here is the official voting record:

http://www.un.org/en/ga/third/69/docs/voting_sheets/L56.Rev1.pdf

To me, this is disgusting beyond belief.  Here we have two countries who try to positions themselves as the most pro-Israeli on the planet (the US and Canada) and the EU which has even passed laws making not only Nazi propaganda illegal, but jailing those who would dare investigate the mass murder of Jews by the Nazis (the so-called 'Holocaust').  And yet these putatively anti-Nazi and "democratic" countries are now refusing to condemn the heroization of Nazism not so much because they particularly like Nazis, but because they want to "protect" the Ukrainian junta.  As for the Ukrainians themselves, they have suffered more from Nazis then any other country or ethnic group, and yet they also refused to condemn the heroization of Nazism.  This makes a mockery not only of all their so-called principles and values, it also is an act of obscene disrespect for the millions of Ukrainian murdered by the Nazis.  There is one good thing about all this: it shows clearly and unequivocally how much the western elites truly hate Russia and that this hate clearly trumps any other considerations or values.

Russian disgust

For the past few days, or weeks, really, I have seen more and more signs of total Russian disgust with the West.  If, in the past, Russian diplomats and politicians were mostly trying to sound polite, now they are openly expressing their disgust.  For example, they are now openly saying the Europe does not have a foreign policy or an opinion, that Europe is just a subservient colony of the US.  As for the US, the Russians are now openly saying that this entire Ukrainian crisis was just a pretext and that the US are really out there to submit Russia.  Putin said that openly last week, adding that nobody had every succeeded in subduing Russia and neither would the USA.  This goes further than words, Russia has already announced that she was going to boycott the 2016 Summit on Nuclear Security.  This became known when the Russian informed the other members of this Summit that Russia would not participate in its preparatory work.

Sergei Lavrov also made a remarkable speech today, but since the pathetic website of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs does not even bother providing a translation on the same day,  we will have to wait before I can post it here.

The Saker

Are You A Passive Supporter Of Racially-Motivated Killing, Ethnic Cleansing And War-Crimes?

By Stuart Sterzel, London, August 2014

“Long live the White Races, and down with the Semite-led subhumans and interracial contacts”.

Look at that slogan. Should this be regarded as a great and laudable sentiment or call-to-action?
If you think so, then, then here are some equally laudable sentiments, provided by the same person and organisation:

“The historic mission of our nation in this critical moment is to lead the White Races of the world in a final crusade for their survival. A crusade against the Semite-led subhumans”.

and

“Punish severely sexual perversions and any interracial contacts that lead to the extinction of the white man”.

And

“Prepare for further expansion and to struggle for the liberation of the entire White Race from the domination of the internationalist speculative capital”.

If you don’t like or agree with these sentiments, then you are obviously not a citizen of any European Union country, or any NATO country, or of the United States of America.

That is because the person who said this - on his own behalf, and on behalf of his organisation “Patriots of Ukraine” – is the commander of the unit which is currently fighting under the banner of the glorious and heroic “Azov Battalion”. The Azov battalion is – along with many other identically-orientated “Special Units” of the “National Guard” of Ukraine (established by the “Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine”) – currently fighting to “liberate” Eastern Ukraine from “Semites” and “Semite-led subhumans”; with the full encouragement of the Ukrainian government.

The Ukrainian government, and all of the many organisations – such as the “Socialist-National Assembly”, the “Patriots of Ukraine”, the “Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists”, the “Tryzub”, the “Swoboda” and other such organisations - have taken over the Ministry of Defence and Ministry of Internal Affairs and other Key Ministries within the current post-coup government of Ukraine. They are also providing the personnel from within their political party structures to form the “Special Units” of the “National Guard” – tasked with liquidating the (in their words) Semites and Semite-led subhumans in Eastern Ukraine. In this “historic mission” of theirs, they are being completely supported to carry it out with impunity by the member countries of the European Union and NATO, and the United States of America.

In fact, it is only the financial, diplomatic and military support provided by the European Union, NATO and the United States of America that has enabled these views to prevail with impunity in Ukraine, and enabled corresponding acts to be perpetrated with impunity in Eastern Ukraine by those who hold these views, against the people that they regard as “Semites” (aka Ukrainian citizens who have the Jewish faith) and “Semite-led subhumans” (aka Ukrainian citizens who are of Russian ethnicity, and all Asians, Africans, Latin Americans, Arabic people and “non-White races”); as well as against those who engage in “interracial contacts”.

It is therefore worth noting that if you are a citizen of any European Union or NATO country, or of the United States of America; seeing as these are democratic countries where the governments are elected by you to represent and carry out the will of their people (i.e. your will), and where they are funded by you to carry out your will through the money paid in taxes by their people (i.e. your money); it is, in fact, you who is facilitating, condoning, supporting and encouraging these views.

Consequently, if you are a citizen of the European Union, a NATO country or the United States of America, the question is, therefore - do you feel satisfied, or proud of yourself, for your association with these views?

Moreover, the people whose speech and views are being facilitated, supported and condoned don’t just talk. They translate their words into deeds and actions – rapidly, efficiently and thoroughly.

That is why in the last two months, far more “Semites and Semite-led subhumans” (including very many women and children) have been killed in Eastern Ukraine through indiscriminate shelling and bombing – including by ballistic missiles – or burnt alive, beaten to death, shot or starved, than were killed in Gaza over the corresponding period. Moreover, over seven hundred thousand have fled to refugee camps in the Russian Federation, while over one hundred thousand more are internally displaced within the Donbass region of South Eastern Ukraine. All this has been done most efficiently and premeditatedly, by the people that the EU and NATO country governments, and the government of the USA, are facilitating, supporting, condoning and paying for.

To illustrate the level of impunity which this support has now led the persons implementing this “solution” to their “problem” enjoy, please see here a recent public quote from the Prime Minister of Ukraine; who was installed in his post not according to the will of the Ukrainian people, but rather according to the will of the USA’s Department of State:

“They lost their lives because they defended men and women, children and the elderly who found themselves in a situation facing a threat to be killed by invaders and sponsored by them subhumans. First, we will commemorate the heroes by wiping out those who killed them and then by cleaning our land from the evil”.

Arseniy Yatsenyuk – Prime Minister of Ukraine
 
According to him, the heroes of the Azov Battalion and other “Special Units” of the “National Guard” will be honoured, and the subhumans will be wiped out, after which the land will be cleaned of the subhumans’ evil. Although the written record of his public comment was re-written to change “subhuman” to “inhuman” to cater for the required public narrative, a screenshot of the posting of his original speech is here. In any event, as that speech was broadcast live to the “subhuman” inhabitants of Eastern Ukraine, they all got it first-hand themselves, and they therefore know what awaits them - if the government in Kiev has its their way.

It seems that once the “heroic” wiping out of the subhumans has been completed in the main, the post-coup Ukrainian government also has a plan in place for how to deal with the ones who’re still there. Here it is:

"There will be a thorough filtration of people. There will be special filtration measures put in place. We will filter out people, including women, who are linked to separatism, who were committing crimes on Ukrainian territory. Crimes related to terrorist activities. We have a lot of information about this, and we have a formidable framework to combat this. Various power structures will carry out this operation.
Mykhailo Koval – Minister of Defence of Ukraine

Read this quote carefully. Especially look at the phrase “Special ‘Filtration’ Activities”. One wonders what the Ukrainian government ministers and their advisors from other countries who formulated this plan had in mind. Perhaps if they closed their eyes and thought about it they could catch the faint sound of freight trains moving off into the dark of the night, travelling to parts unknown; full to the brim with an unusual cargo. It would not be the first time that something like this has happened in Ukraine.

The current post-coup government in Ukraine clearly has a problem with people that it perceives to be “Semite-led subhumans”, and – according to Ukrainian political leaders – this problem must be attended to. In stirring up a section of their (presumably non-subhuman) population through rhetoric, it seems that they have driven many people to start “helping” with this, and helping most thoroughly. As such, their will will be done – in fact, it is currently being done as you read this. As for the survivors, it seems that they’ll just be ethnically cleansed from the land (to make the land “clean”, it seems).

As with all thorough plans, it also seems that the current Ukrainian government has already worked out how to recompense the people who are cleaning the land of the “evil of the subhumans”. Here it is:

“Land parcels will be given out for free to the servicemen of the Armed Forces and other military formations, as well as to the employees of Interior Ministry and the Security Service that are defending territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country”.
Land Agency of Ukraine

Clearly, according to the current Ukrainian government, the land, possessions and businesses of the subhumans will be taken over and given away to the “heroic” personnel of the “Special Units” of the “National Guard” for free. It seems that in the “New Ukraine”, those classified as subhumans have no rights, so ownership and title don’t apply to them. Not anyway in the “New Europe” being forged within Ukraine.

If any Ukrainian speaks out against these acts too loudly, they are, more and more, just grabbed off the street and “disappeared”. Also, if any Ukrainian wants to broadcast anything other than the required narrative on Television, such a person will be assaulted and forced to resign (in this case, being assaulted and forced to resign by the Member of Parliament of Ukraine responsible for “Free Speech”). Similarly, if any Ukrainian wants to speak out against this in the Ukrainian Parliament, they will similarly be silenced by force applied in the parliament building (and then have their political party banned).

The iron-clad priority of the current Ukrainian government – and their supporters – appears to be that at all costs they must project the required narrative to outsiders in order to justify their conduct. The required narrative is that the prevailing situation is a war between Russia and Ukraine, not that it is a civil war inside Ukraine between Ukrainian citizens – with the Ukrainian “Special Units”, “National Guard” and army killing and ethnically cleansing the “subhuman” category of the Ukrainian civilian population in the Donbass Region of South-Eastern Ukraine.

As for the so-called “subhuman” section of the population trapped inside South Eastern Ukraine, it is not as though these acts are being carried out against them in silence. They are being done openly. However, although the people trapped inside the surrounded cities are crying out for help most publicly, nobody’s listening. It seems to be that the narrative has been accepted that all 8 million of these “subhumans” are “terrorists”, so their money can be taken from their bank accounts and from the money due for their pensions, insurance won’t pay for their destroyed houses, businesses or possessions – and whatever’s left can just be confiscated, and their water, electricity and gas supplies can be cut.

Moreover, it seems as though these people’s residential houses can be rocketed and shelled and bombed with impunity, and their windows can be blown out and roofs destroyed. In that part of Europe this can force people to – when winter, and minus 40 degree centigrade weather arrives (soon) – have to risk freezing to death or otherwise be forced to leave their homes.

Also, there are, apparently, no consequences incurred by the current Ukrainian government, their “National Guard” units, or their supporters for the daily contraventions of multiple Ukrainian and International Laws, including:

• Ukrainian Criminal Laws and its Constitution, or
• European Laws, or
• International Laws, or
• International War Crimes Laws, or
• International Law against the Bombing of Civilians, or
• Customary International Humanitarian Law, or
• the Geneva Conventions, or
• the law on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, or
• International Refugee Law, or
• the Laws on Forced Evictions and Forced Displacement, or
• the Convention on the Suppression and Punishment of the Crime of Apartheid, r
• The Convention against Torture, or
• Hate Crime Laws, or multiple International Human Rights Treaties, or
• Multiple other laws relating to Siege / Immunity of Civilians / Starvation / Blocking of Humanitarian Aid, or Destruction and Seizure of Property, or Wanton Destruction, or Crimes Against Humanity, or Corporate War Crimes, or Hate Speech, etc, etc, etc.

Even though more than enough documentary, photographic and video material already exists for criminal charges to be brought by any person or organisation, from any jurisdiction, for contravention of numerous of these laws and conventions against:

• any private persons, or
• any organisation leaders or members, or
• any military leaders or soldiers, or
• any private military company or organisation directors, leaders or members, or
• any political party leaders or members, or
• any government leaders or members,
• from any country involved with these acts directly or indirectly,
• for either their acts or their failures to act,
• or against any person (or spokesperson) for aiding, abetting or encouraging such acts, or concealing information on such acts,
• and although there is no statute of limitations for when these charges can be brought;

Total impunity for the members of the current Ukrainian government, the members of the “National Guard” and their supporters – in Ukraine and abroad – seems to be the order of the day. For now.

This is especially as very few foreign journalists are reporting from within the encircled cities or areas or the border of the Russian Federation; but also primarily because the “solution” being applied to this “subhuman terrorist” problem is being applied with the support and protection of the governments of the EU and NATO countries, and the USA. As a result, there is a total absence of balance when it comes to reporting of statements or to reporting of rebuttals from parties being mentioned in the media.

Other than this, all statements from the International Committee of the Red Cross, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, and any other party that doesn’t follow the required narrative appear to being kept out of the primary media in many countries. Other events that are contrary to the required narrative also appear to be left out of primary media reports in some countries.

In amongst this situation have also occurred some very irregular events which do not and could not pass muster if measured against any yardstick of probity or decency whatsoever.

Moreover, in early 2014, Ukraine was teetering on the edge of bankruptcy due to default on tens-of-billions of dollars of debt. Where has that all suddenly disappeared to? Also, the requirement to pay back any of the other tens-of-billions of dollars in loans from multiple international creditors, or to pay for gas supplies, or any other normal requirement for any normal country in any normal situation seems to either have mysteriously disappeared, or be able to be totally ignored by the current government – primarily, it seems, due to external protection provided to Ukraine’s current government by the governments of the EU and NATO countries, and the USA.

Similarly, despite Ukraine’s financial bankruptcy, there is, however, suddenly and just as mysteriously – from thin air, it seems – a tremendous amount of money available for military spending. This is specifically for the current Ukrainian government to launch the very expensive and ongoing military operation against the eight million “subhuman terrorists”. This includes money for the brand-new military equipment used by the “Special Units” of the “National Guard” to kill the terrorists, much of which equipment does not come from Ukraine.
Perhaps it is time – as the “Watergate” saying went – to “follow the money”, and see where it leads to.

For all of this, the citizens of EU and NATO countries, and of the USA – whose governments are covering for, or guaranteeing the cost of, this land-cleaning of the evil of subhuman terrorists – are morally co-responsible if you allow your governments to continue this policy of support, condoning or financing of these actions.

Therefore, look again at the headline of this article. Look at the quotes, in bold. Systematically review the documents and videos located at hyperlinks like this one in this article. Take your time and do it thoroughly. If they leave you cold, or if you agree with what is being done, well then – stand aside and let it happen, because then, you will never again have to concern yourself about it.

If, however, you are not in agreement with what is going on – whether you are a citizen of an EU or NATO country, the USA, or for that matter, any country – and it does not leave you cold, then there is some action required. You see, disagreeing but doing nothing is akin to consent. If you don’t agree with what is being done, you have to actually do something to stop it. In doing so, you should take note of this very important point.

If you are a citizen of a democratic country, it is you who is the ruler. Your government is not elected to rule you, to tell you what to do or to do as it pleases. No indeed.

Your government – comprising citizens who are no better or worse than you, and no more or less worthy than you – is elected to serve you. To administer the affairs of your country on your behalf, according to your wishes. As such, you can compel them to accede to your will.

Regrettably, many of them lose sight of this fact once they are elected, and think they are kings or queens, so you may have to remind them of who, in fact, works for who.

One way to do this is through the use of the law.

Just as a company director can face legal consequences for reckless endangerment of a company, so can a political leader face legal consequences for reckless endangerment of a country or of people’s lives. Just as a company director can face legal consequences for making false and misleading statements, so can a political leader. When a company director takes a company in a direction that the majority of its shareholders disagrees with, they can band together and force him out – and the same can be done with political leaders and citizens or voters. There are many avenues of recourse, and many intelligent and committed law firms and legal minds that know how to do this.

If this avenue is not open to you, then make your voice heard in any way that is possible. Doing anything – as long as it is non-violent and geared towards achieving positive change – is preferable to doing nothing.

Let your political leaders and governments know your thoughts. Make them comply with your will – for if you do not, they will condone or support the carrying out of these acts in your name.

Moreover, because this situation is being ignored or condoned by governments, and because many ordinary people think that the condoning of this situation by their governments is perverse, they are taking matters into their own hands, and what is happening in that region of Europe is starting to spread its tentacles far and wide – and very rapidly too.

Therefore, take note that as sure as night follows day, if you allow the Law of the Jungle to reign supreme in Ukraine today, you run the risk that tomorrow, when you open your front door, the jungle could be on your own doorstep.

A cold wind is blowing through Europe. It carries on it the sound of voices from the past – gone but not forgotten. Voices of people who cried out for help - but no help ever came. Mingling in are the sound of new voices, also crying out for help - but their cries too go unanswered.

Pay heed to this wind, and to the voices that it carries; for if you do not, this wind can become a storm; and if it does, you will find, when that storm arrives, that tomorrow belongs to you.

The writer is an executive at a multinational company based in Europe. Prior to his business career, he provided Strategic Geopolitical Consulting services to national and federal governments in Eastern and Western Europe and the CIS, as well as to international organisations. He is the author of geopolitical articles which are published in the press internationally, and is also a guest commentator on geopolitical affairs for international television stations. He has been a delegate and guest speaker at United Nations conferences. He has chaired a Humanitarian Organisation in Europe and a Military Veterans Organisation in South Africa as pro-bono activities. Prior to his career in Strategic Geopolitical Consulting, he was a Special Forces Operator and member of the Directorate of Special Tasks of Military Intelligence, and participated in the Angolan War, where he took part in combat operations against USSR and USSR-proxy forces during the Cold War. 
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Ukraine Crisis: Donbass. Chronicle of Genocide

El Murid: To the Militia, Eventual Victory is a Statement of Fact

Original: El Murid LiveJournal (Anatoliy Nesmeyanov)
Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov

My status in Donetsk was entirely uncertain. Igor Ivanovich permitted me to be present virtually everywhere (with the exception of the places that were absolutely off bounds, and which I had no knowledge of in any event). Just in case, I was given a Paper that said pretty much the same thing – identity unknown, but assistance is compulsory.

All this enabled me to be really quite free in taking a look at everything within my reach. Mainly, it allowed me to speak freely with people of all ranks. And here my impression is entirely unequivocal – all these people are not simply certain of their victory, but also understand it in exactly the same way. All of them are sure that they will finish this war in Kiev. They say this without pathos and without slogans – they simply say it as a statement of fact. None of them have any doubts that this is how the war will end.

With respect to Russia, the opinions I encountered varied widely. If we were to generalize – they continue to hope for Russia’s aid, but no longer expect it. With respect to Crimea, the opinion of the vast majority was also quite solidary – all of them tend to think that Russia’s key mistake was that after Crimea it chose not to march on Kiev and did not close this matter once and for all when the Junta was still extremely weak.

At the same time, the image of the “Vatniks”, so cherished by the Maidan propaganda, on closer inspection turned out to be a myth. In the Militia there is a multitude of people with higher education. And these are not managers-lawyers, but techies and practicians. Strelkov’s aide is a math teacher; the favourite past time of his personal guard is not cards, but chess, and, in my amateur opinion, at a fairly high level. Although officers and commanders visually appear quite unpresentable, which is not surprising, given their daily field activities, their sound judgment and fairly decent knowledge of a multitude subjects would put to shame any Moscow or Kiev kreakl [Note: a Russianized portmanteau of the words “creative” and “class”, used primarily in a sarcastic manner].

In contrast to those who painstakingly create an image of the Militia as gangs of some kind of Vlasovtsy, the people that encountered spoke little of politics. Their personal views and preferences are hidden and subordinated to the main goal – winning this war. To them, all the rest is at this time absolutely irrelevant.

Strelkov has introduced awards and ranks – and he distributes them rather sparingly. Only the really heroic feats get recognized. At the same time, these awards have yet to find many of the heroes. It was literally during my trip to the border that my escort made attempts to call Donetsk and asked urgently to award a fighter that, over the course of three months of fighting, shot down 4 (four) enemy aircraft. As I understood, this was two helicopters, a drone and an airplane. For all of this he was given an award of a thousand hryvnia. My escort urged that the callsign of the fighter be recorded, so that he could be awarded the Cross of St. George.

In general, as it always happens in a Russian army, the shortages of everything are fully compensated for with regular everyday heroism. Commanders take care of their men, and any wounded becomes the concern of all. I cannot say that I saw everything, but here I am talking about my personal impressions.

I was also able to have a discussion with a Ukrainian serviceman. He was, in fact, Ukrainian military – a captain of the Ukrainian armed forces. I cannot say that he is a fanatical Banderovets, but he is absolutely sure that he is fighting Russia. He is not at all thrilled with the Kiev authorities, and he does not hide his attitude toward them, but he will obey his orders to the end. Perhaps this is an isolated fact, unsuitable for making far-reaching conclusions, but I had no other interaction with the Ukrainian military.

As for the common people, I can only say that they have gotten used to the war. Same as with every cataclysm. We stopped over in Torez and spoke to a local grandma who was carrying something to her daughter and grandson. She hates Kiev with all her heart. She hates the war and the Banderovtsy too. Considering that even in peacetime Torez looks like a ghost town, her fatalism is to some extent understandable. The war made the lives of these people dangerous, but their lives were hopeless even without war.

The militiamen at the checkpoint in Snezhnoye are by and large adults and serious men. Their hatred of Kiev and its butchers is almost palpable. The fact that they have taken up arms shows that they finally could not take it anymore. Almost every one of them has a grenade on the ready, which they consider to be their final argument. They entertain no possibility of surrender. There are also young woman and guys, but I think even they understand that this no longer is a play fight.

On one of the trips around the city and to the suburbs – in the direction of Maryinka – I was taken by a person who reads me and who volunteered his help. He is preparing to join the ranks of the Militia as soon as he puts his current affairs in order. He is not in good health, but he is ready to do any work that he is capable of.

There were also others who were more careful. More neutral, and sometimes even hostile to the DPR. They did not pour out their soul to me, but it was evident that they clearly did not support the new authorities. Nevertheless, I cannot say that I met many of them. Most live strictly in accordance with the famous song by Chaif, “Oy-yo” – On the TV they tell me how to live. I’ve had enough! It can’t be worse that it was before! – that is their main theme. Though it may well be that they are wrong.

The Extraordinary Importance of Strelkov and the Coming of the Banderite Caliphate—El Murid, August 9, 2014

Original: El Murid LiveJournal (Anatoliy Nesmeyanov)Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov / Edited by @GBabeuf

Over the course of my stay in Donetsk I saw nothing that was markedly different from what is publicly known. Up close, however, many things certainly appeared completely different in detail.

When the Slavyansk Brigade came to Donetsk, almost immediately the question of cooperation among the units gathered in the city was raised. Two paths were evident: the creation of a centralized hierarchical command, or the establishment of a kind of 'Shura'—a council of commanders. The first option was fraught with the danger of a civil war within a civil war; the second one immediately made the process of creating an army a long-term affair.

The commanders chose the second path, especially since I did not observe any of them to have any particular disagreements with Strelkov. The question of the Vostok Battalion and Khodakovskiy was treated separately, although, as I understand it, a solution to this issue was also found.

At this moment in time, the Militia of Donetsk is comprised of three large brigades: the Slavyansk Brigade and the Oplot and Vostok Battalions. Apart from these, there are several self-sufficient militarized structures, such as police units. Among them all there is complete coordination and cooperation. The representatives of the Vostok Battalion categorically abstain from attending joint meetings; however, in spite of this, Strelkov has a mechanism for coordinating actions even with them—right in front of me, literally five minutes after getting disinformation concerning an attack on Yasinovataya by ten tanks [of the Ukrainian Army], Strelkov received information from Vostok that there were not ten, but three tanks, and, even so, that one of them was burned out, while the rest had retreated. Apart from the Donetsk military formations, there is an almost entirely self-sufficient unit commanded by Bezler; however, here also there are no problems of cooperation or coordination.

The system works quite effectively, even though certain problems naturally do exist. The independence of the Oplot and Vostok Battalions is due, first and foremost, to their independent supply channels. These units are practically independent from Strelkov also in this aspect; however, even in this regard, when the need arises, they manœuvre [and share] their available resources in the interest of their common struggle—all without any problems. Overall, the process of building the DPR [Donetsk People's Republic] Army is following a path that is fairly traditional in similar situations. It can be said that, at this stage, the most operationally capable management structure has been found.

Nonetheless, this structure has its weak link. The council of commanders recognizes Strelkov as their Commander-in-Chief; moreover, I noticed that this acceptance is unconditional. Although he is merely a first among equals, his role in the organization is extraordinarily important. And that is why the persistent efforts of the Moscow Nazis [Note: reference to Kurginyan and his sectarians, whose media attacks on Strelkov benefit the Ukrainian Junta] appear exceedingly dangerous from all points of view. In view of the chosen organizational form of command, there is no one else that the commanders will agree to subordinate to.

It may well be that the well-known political analyst [Note: Kurginyan] and his pro-Nazi sect nourish the hope that, by removing Strelkov and installing at the head of the Militia a commander controlled by them, following victory they will gain the right to construct a simulacrum of themselves in Novorossiya. The problem is that there is no visible path to victory in such a scenario—the Militia will never subordinate itself to anyone else. The breakdown of the control structure would be inevitable, and then, in order to restore at least some control, war would have to be waged between former allies. In this case, the result of such infighting looks quite problematic for the Moscow Nazis—it is the Slavyansk Brigade that is the most powerful force in the Militia. Nevertheless, all of this still does not change the fact that [Kurginyan’s] sect operates strictly in the interests of Kiev.

More likely than not, the Moscow oligarchs that sent the fulminating political analyst to Donetsk see the situation in the correct light and hope, by removing Strelkov, finally to bury the idea of Novorossiya—followed by a coup in Moscow. It is difficult to tell whether the 'Guru of Treason' understands this. It may be that he is being used without his knowledge [Gleb: Yes, and my right foot is green, while the left one changes colour daily...].

One way or another—but any attempts to create problems for the Militia by undermining the current command structure will at this stage lead to a defeat. Essentially, this is the main thing that I finally was convinced of in Donetsk.

It is true that an army built on the basis of oral agreements is not, strictly speaking, an army. And the need to establish a fully-fledged command structure, which is not dependent on the identity of the Commmander-in-Chief, will inevitably arise. At this time, however, there are not the slightest prerequisites for this to happen. The value of the DPR’s political component today is at best zero, if not negative. The construction of a fully-fledged political and economic management system has, so far, been unsuccessful. The constant shuffling of premiers and deputy premiers is the best evidence of this fact. This structure is only beginning to be formed; appropriate candidates are being identified, base principles of the DPR’s political programme are being formulated.

And that is precisely why even an army based on oral agreement is the only structure that provides the necessary stability to the DPR. Undermining this army by discrediting its Commander-in-Chief and the targeted attacks on him by corrupt politicians and their insane sectarians represent deliberate attempts to destroy the entire idea of the Donbass uprising. At this time, there is no other way to characterize or understand these assaults on Strelkov.

Kurginyan: Let him tell me why he surrendered the city!        Strelkov: Why don't you go and fight yourself?                   Kurginyan: I better stay here, on the couch.

I say this not because I am acquainted with him or because I experience feelings of friendship for him—in this case, all such considerations are absolutely irrelevant. There is an entirely objective situation that dictates its own rules of engagement. Essentially, I returned to Moscow now, and not later, because the danger posed by these attacks is currently exceedingly high. Their intensity is increasing, and there are signs of this not only in the public domain. I did not come alone, and we will try to convey this message to the highest of offices and to the widest possible audience. At the moment, this is what is most important.

At the same time, the military prospects of the DPR at this time I would characterize as clearly 'non-zero' [Note: i.e. positive]. Kiev does not appear to have any strategy to suppress the uprising that would generate results in the short term. A war of attrition would be ruinous for Novorossiya—particularly in a context where Russian aid remains largely symbolic in nature and manifests itself primarily as humanitarian and private deliveries.

Even so, Kiev also does not have a wide berth for manœuvre in such a field—its situation appears no longer just critical, but catastrophic. The solution may become a coup and the establishment of an openly Nazi military dictatorship, which would then crush any and all unrest in the territory of Ukraine, enabling it to continue the war in the previous format even in the context of a complete collapse.

Whether or not the Europeans would risk giving the go-ahead for the creation of such a state is a difficult question to answer. So far, Poroshenko’s regime, despite all its pro-Nazi orientation, still appears to the West to be fairly controllable. However, the creation of a Banderite 'Caliphate' in the middle of Europe could completely change the situation on the continent—just as the situation in the Middle East was transformed by the creation of the ISIS 'Caliphate', which completely unshackled itself from its creators.

At the same time, the United States may well go along with this course of events—it does not scare them in the least. And that is why the likelihood of a coup in Kiev and the coming to power of radicals is quite high.

Neither the worst, nor the best, but time is running out for Novorussia

They flutter behind you your possible pasts
Some brighteyed and crazy some frightened and lost
A warning to anyone still in command
Of their possible future to take care

Roger Waters

On July 1st I wrote a short piece entitled "Novorussia - Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and settle for anything in the middle" in which I looked at the various possible outcomes of what appeared to be an imminent and massive Ukie attack on Novorussia. I think that now is a good time to look back and what happened in the past 40 days and compare it with the possible outcomes.

Life somewhere in the middle

First, the best possible outcome which I summarized like this: Hope for the best is easy: the Novorussian resistance beats back the Nazi forces. That clearly did not happen and, frankly, that was the most unlikely outcome.  However, I have to note here that the destruction of the "Southern Cauldron" is a huge success for the Resistance which, I think, took most people by surprise.

Then, here is how I described the worst possible outcome:

But what is the worst which can happen?

The worst which can happen is that a lot of Novorussian defenders get killed, that the towns of Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Krasnyi Liman and others will get basically flattened and most of their inhabitants killed, that the road between Donetsk and Lugansk gets cut-off by the Ukies and that Ukie forces enter deep inside these two cities. I have to be honest here, there is a pretty good chance that all of the above will happen in the next 24 hours.

Superficially, it might look that this is very close to what actually happened.   Except, of course, that instead of happening in 24 hours, it took the Ukies 40 days to achieve this result.  Then, please consider the following "details":

1. The Donetsk-Luganks road has not been cut-off yet, but it is threatened, no doubt here.  But the Ukies are afraid to fall into a trap and being surrendered again.  So even if their forces have entered a few towns on that axis, they also had to withdraw back to their positions.
2. All the combats are taking place on the suburban periphery of these cities and no Ukie forces have entered Luganks or Donetsk proper.  Yes, they are mercilessly shelling these cities, but that is out of frustration because they are clearly unable to actually punch through the defensive lines of the Resistance.
3. The destruction of the Southern Cauldron has opened 165km of border between Novorussia and Russia and that means that far from being able to cut-off the Resistance from Russia, the junta is now in control of even less crucial border crossings.

In fact, these are not details, but crucial elements of the overall strategic picture.  Of course, civilians are paying a horrible price for the junta's lack of real military success, and this kind of horror will continue for as long as the West will fully back Poroshenko's war.  The Ukies have shelled random buildings, kindergartens, churches and even hospitals.  Sadly, this is par for the course, this is what the USA did in Serbia and Montenegro, this is what the Israelis did to Lebanon in 2006 and this is what they are doing to Gaza now.  Still, terrible as these atrocities are, we should not mistake them for some kind of junta military success, quite to the contrary.

In July, I also looked at the very real possibility that the junta's deathsquads would actually enter Donetsk and/or Luganks.  I wrote:

Even if Poroshenko announces that Donetsk and Lugansk have "fallen", this will be only a empty statement on par with Dubya's "mission accomplished". What will *really* happen is that the type of warfare taking place will change. Not only will it change, but the new (urban) type of warfare will almost completely negate the current huge advantage in aviation, artillery and armor of the Ukie side. So if these cities "fall" - please do not despair.  

Apparently, the Resistance did not have to give up defense in what the military calls "mixed terrain" (vegetation, small villages, natural obstacles) nor did it have to retreat deep inside the urban areas to negate the huge junta advantages in hardware and manpower.  So even though this kind of "the worst did not happen" news does not make for good headlines, it is very important, especially when we consider the bigger picture.

The race against time

The war in the Ukraine has now turned into a pure race against time.  If we assume that the junta has an infinite amount of time available to crush the Resistance then we can only conclude that the Resistance will be completely wiped out.  No matter how much covert aid comes from Russia, the junta is sitting on top of huge stores of old, but still usable, weapons systems.  The junta also has an immense reservoir of manpower.  So no matter how heroically and skillfully the Resistance fights, on the long-run it simply cannot win.  Even if we assume that the Ukie forces in the Donbass are brought to a total standstill by the Resistance, it is one thing to defend yourself against an attacker and quite another to mount a successful offensive.  So even if the Ukies are beaten back around Donetsk, this hardly means that Strelkov can launch a counter-attack on Kiev.  No matter how you slice it, in the long run the Ukies win.

Furthermore,  according to many sources the Ukies have learned how to fight, even if they learned that at a huge cost in lives.  A month or two ago we had a war of clueless conscripts versus mostly older but combat trained Resistance fighters.  This has now changed.  Of course, the Ukies have suffered terrible casualties, and they still are, but there are increasing signs that those who survived have learned their lesson the hard way and that they are much harder to defeat than in the past.

However, there are many reasons why the Ukies do not have that much time.

• The first colds of winter will arrive in a month or so, followed by winter.
• The Ukies economy is coasting to a full halt (expected around September-October).
• The EU has just realized that the retaliatory sanctions imposed by Russia will be both extremely costly and politically divisive.
• The true story of MH17 will continue to leak out in one way or another
• The Ukie elites are already fighting each other pretty openly.
• The constant massacres by the Ukie death squads are becoming harder and harder to hide.

For all these reasons, Poroshenko had his sponsors badly need victory soon, something to show that the regime is not hapless and that Uncle Sam's will "be done on earth as it is in heaven".  Conversely, every passing day makes an (unlikely but always possible) Russian military intervention less politically costly.  Bottom line is this: time is on Russia's side, but not on Novorussia's side.  For the Novorussians, the crisis is severe, the horrors a daily fact of life, and the hardship harder and harder.  Still, the Novorussian Resistance has done better, even much better, then what I had feared and that should be recognized.

Russian options short of over military intervention

Still, since we don't know how close either side here is to its breaking point, it appears that the situation remains very fluid, very unstable and very dangerous.  I continue to think that Russian must do more to make sure that the Novorussians do not get run over (especially considering their lack of operational depth, this could happen in, literally a period of 24 hours). 

First,  Russia should increase its covert military, financial and technical aid, and she should probably also switch its official stance from "declared non-intervention" to "limited intervention on the basis of humanitarian grounds".  At the very least, if the US and its colonies could gather a conference of so-called "Friends of Syria", Russia should consider political moves to help ease the pressure on Novorussia.  The BRICS countries and the members of the SCO could declare an emergency based on the humanitarian situation in the Rostov region.  And if the US wants to consider a humanitarian mission as an "intervention" so be it!  Who cares about what the US might say? At this point the US has said it all and to pretend like the next statement from the "crazies" makes a difference in the real world is pointless, I think.

Second, now that Russia has imposed economic sanctions on the EU Russia should clearly spell out to her "EU partners" that these sanctions will remain for as long as the EU keeps acting like "Uncle Sam's bitch".  While officially these sanctions are a retaliatory measure against US/EU sanctions, I am convinced that their real purpose is not to respond to the rather lame US/EU sanctions, but to punish the EU and to use it to break the total EU subservience to the USA.  This is why Russia chose to use sectoral sanctions, sanctions which would very precisely hit the most subservient US colonies (Poland, Lithuania) and, at the same time, the most rebellious US colonies (Greece, France, Spain).  Furthermore, Russia will now be re-directing billions of its dollars/rubles away from those countries which supported Uncle Sam to those who did not.  Argentina, Brazil, China, and others are now openly celebrating the signing of huge contracts with Russia.  That, in turn, means that these countries will gradually have a bigger and bigger personal interest in keeping relations with Russia excellent which, in turn, will give Russia more and more political clout.  The BBC has reported today that "EU Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso has told Russia's Vladimir Putin not to carry out unilateral military action in eastern Ukraine under any pretext".  This is a perfect example of what Nikolai Starikov has called a "the boorish attitude towards Russia as a guilty child, who must be punished and taught a lesson".  Who the hell does Barroso think that he is?  There is a full-scale war and a massive humanitarian disaster right on Russia's doorstep and that Portuguese bureaucrat thinks that he can tell Russia what she can do or not do?!  Russian sanctions need to teach Barroso and the likes of him a good lesson in pain to make them understand that a tiny dog like them better not bark at a bear.  The EU needs to be taught some basic manners and this is, I am quite sure, a central element of the Russian sanctions policy.

The next crucial months

So this will all come to head in the next few months.  First, Novorussia must absolutely hold.  Neither Donetsk nor Lugansk can be allowed to fall.  If that is achieved, then the "season of pain" will begin in earnest for Banderastan and the EU neither of which can afford what is about to hit them.  One this process begins, Russia will have the option to just relax and watch the bovine excreta hit the proverbial fan, in Kiev and Brussels.  Then we will see what these Europatriots are really made out of.

But first and foremost, Novorussia must hold. 

The Saker