by M.Khazin
translation by "G' of М.Хазин, "Может ли быть мир на Украине?"
http://worldcrisis.ru/crisis/1646580
The devaluation of the Ruble and the Yevtushenkov affair have so saturated our mass media that it would seem desirable to stand aside and address a more substantial theme. Namely; under what conditions can the Ukraine know peace? Not just any ‘peace’ but a peace without wholesale disintegration of the country into petty fiefdoms, without a bloodstained dictatorship, without ethnic cleansing and without genocide. In order to answer this question, it is necessary, above all, to look at Kiev and Donetsk.
They should be part of one state. However the 10s of thousands killed and the open exhortations to genocide which have been issued by the dominant political forces in Kiev (for example: the phrase ‘Russians, clear off back to Moscovy’, which is directed at people who are not only currently inhabiting Lugansk and Donetsk but who have lived there for centuries, could be considered, formally from the point of view of international legal norms to fit the definition of genocide and, without doubt, that of ethnic cleansing) render such ‘cohabitation’ within the framework of a usual state simply impossible. The people of Donetsk and Lugansk (we include the Odessa massacre, even though it differs, in part from the others ) will never relinquish their right to justice against those who are guilty of the massacre of civilians and, similarly, the Kievan nationalists are unlikely to stop uttering phrases of the sort: ‘ We’ve barbecued that [Colorado Beetle] bitch.’ or other such endearments.
In theory the only way that Kiev can go back to normal would be in the context of sustained economic growth. In that case it might be possible to brush the nationalist slogans back under the carpet and for everyone to benefit from the resultant financial in-flows, but here Kiev has fallen into a trap of its own making. It is a simple fact that economic growth is only possible in collaboration with Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union. There is simply no other option. There is not even any real perspective for the development of agriculture; one would just need look at the example of Bulgaria, where the climate is noticeably more clement than that in Ukraine. Ukraine finds it impossible to compete with Turkey. Once the European Union association agreement comes into force there will be no means of regulating the influx of Turkish agri-business and the only profitable way to engage in agriculture will be in a vegetable garden. It is sufficient to look at the example set in that neighbouring former Soviet state, Moldova.
Insofar as Kiev has adopted a radically anti-Russian model, the chances of growth in that country are precisely zero. The European Union has no money and judging by the way that the crisis is developing the prognosis is not positive, and even if we were to look, more optimistically, into the medium term at the global economic situation, the European Union is most likely to help out the Eastern European Countries and the Baltic States before it bails out Ukraine. Nothing personal, just business.
And this means that Kievan Nationalism is going nowhere. It has no choice as it will be impossible for it to maintain its grip on power otherwise. Moreover it has achieved some success insofar as the United States has enacted sanctions against Russia and coerced its allies in Europe and the wider world to do likewise. There is only one problem: For how long will they be willing to prosecute these sanctions for the sake of Ukraine? Kiev’s issues will continue to mount, insofar as the only way that it can deal with the growth of democratic sentiment in the South East (it is clear that the struggle is for freedom and democracy, regardless of how discordant that sounds from the point of view of the contemporary Western mass media) is by the use of military force. It is far from certain that this particular problem can be resolved by military force.
In summary we can say that, judging by the development of negative economic trends, the intensity of internal confrontation in Kiev will constantly grow. In turn those wishing to live under their guardianship will become fewer and fewer. The cohesion of the Ukrainian state will melt like snow in the heat of the summer sun. As that happens the state will become more and more aggressive So we expect to see a contradiction in answer to the question that we posed. Is it possible to establish peace in the Ukraine?
I intentionally have not referred in general to Ukrainian nationalists, rather specifically to Kievan Nationalists. The fact is that Galician Nationalists and Kievan Nationalists are not the same. The latter always had significant sources of income (be it the budget of the USSR, Ukraine etc.), however the former have been forced to be much more pragmatic. Furthermore they have been unable to understand that they cannot hold Kiev. This is because any government in Kiev, in correspondence to their stability, will in the first instance, fall not upon the Russians in the Donbass, but rather upon the genuine committed nationalists. Today this is what Poroshenko is doing. This was clear earlier and I wrote about this earlier in the year.
Rather than being an idea (which moreover is distinctly un-appealing to the EU), Nationalism for Kiev is an instrument. There is no requirement for committed nationalists. The requirement is for cynics, who are happy to articulate nationalists’ slogans in order to gain control over the budgetary and gas revenue flows. Thus, regarding the situation in recent months, committed nationalists(which for our purposes we shall name ‘Right Sector’) have come to look more and more seriously at breaking away from Kiev. Moreover, Kiev earlier distributed budgetary money to them (received from Donbass and other regions) and now there is no more budgetary money to distribute.
However Galicia by itself cannot breakaway from Kiev. Kiev, for whom the slogan (‘for the unity of the Ukraine’) has become totemic, will never agree to it. This means that, as well as the rebels in the Donbass, there is also appearing a new force, which is also interested in the collapse of the country. In this way, from the above, we can formulate the picture below of the future Ukraine.
Should the Rebels from the South-East reach an agreement with the Galician nationalists, then they will take power in Kiev. In that case, the insurgents, proponents of the former Soviet Union and the slogan ‘friendship of the Peoples’ will, through the creation of a multi-ethnic ethnic state, put an end to nationalism and re-establish peace in the Ukraine. Galicia, as it were, in gratitude for its assistance, would receive either independence, probably as part of a confederation or quite possibly full independence as a separate state. It is clearly difficult to imagine a state where in some schools they teach that Bandera is a fascist criminal and in others – that he is a hero. But that remaining part of the Ukraine will be a peaceful, unified state, entering, one would imagine the European Economic Area.
Should agreement not be reached and the insurgents not achieve victory (either by circumstance or by result of foreign intervention), then the intensifying confrontation in Kiev will inescapably lead to the break-up of the country into petty fiefdoms with a correspondingly low quality of life and norms of governance. At present we enumerate 5 of these; Novorossiya, Hetmanshina (Cossak, with Kiev as its capital), New Khazaria (under the control of the oligarch Kolomoiski) and Galicia. We also consider one more statelet, Transcarpathia which is likely to be dissected and integrated into neighbouring countries.
But nobody has said that the process of disintegration will stop there. Anyone who doubts it should read Bulgakov. The mentality of the people in the Ukraine has not significantly changed since then. It is difficult to even conceive how a normal man can live in these conditions.
If we believe that the best outcome is a united (that is relatively united, without either the Crimea or Galicia) Ukraine, a Ukraine which is peaceful and prosperous, it is essential that the insurgents take control of Kiev. Until this happens, the war will continue. Unfortunately, there is simply no way of stopping the war and preserving Ukraine until Kiev falls to the insurgents.
Showing posts with label western Ukraine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label western Ukraine. Show all posts
Thursday, September 25, 2014
Sunday, August 24, 2014
All is Quiet on the Western Front?
Note: today I am happy to share with you a report written by a friend and reader, 'Y', who asked that I convey to you his words that "I am not presenting myself as an expert on the involved history and
politics of Transcarpathia. My intention is just to point out the importance of this under-reported region and that not all Ukrainians are
fascist supporters". I am immensely grateful to "Y" for his contribution which is far more interesting than much of what the so-called "experts" write. I also fully agree that it is important to keep an eye on the western Ukraine. I hope that with the help of "Y" we will be able to keep an eye on this important region.
The Saker
-------
Reports from Ukraine naturally focus on the horrendous murderous onslaught against the Russian-speaking people in south east Ukraine. Does this mean that all is quiet throughout the rest of the country?
It turns out there is a great deal of sporadic low-level activity against the Ukraine regime. This takes many forms, from peaceful protest to targeted acts of sabotage.
In Odessa, all seems quiet. Many photographs of groups of people displaying the Ukraine flag in oppressions have appeared, with some people wearing the Ukrainian embroidered shirt (Vyshyvka). These include shots of photogenic young women with flowers in their hair. However, the Right Sector symbolism no longer overtly appears. On the other hand, a candle-lit display was held outside the Trades Union building in remembrance of the killed during the false flag operation earlier in May 2014. There are undercurrents of propaganda warfare in which public monuments are painted in a cycle of Ukraine colors followed by Novorossia colors. Interestingly, the Novorossia colors are staying for longer periods of time, suggesting the other side has a reduced capacity to monitor and restore the Ukraine colors. At a more extreme level, branches of Privat Bank have suffered damage from small bombs exploded late at night. This represents an attack on the interests of Kolomoisky, the local oligarch.
In Mariupol, the scene of another attack by Ukraine forces against civilians and police in May, things also seem quiet, but checkpoints still exist on the major roads. Unconfirmed reports suggest the area may be quiet as a result of intimidation from the local right wing groups. Lyashko is reported to have commandeered the house and extensive grounds of a property belonging to Yanukovich. This is located at Uzuf, 20 miles west of Mariupol overlooking the Sea of Azov. This may have been used as the base for training of members of the Azov battalion. Interestingly, a ex-Azov member grew disenchanted with Lyashko, claiming the battalion was used primarily as a vehicle for Lyashko's political ambitions rather than fighting in the south east. There are numerous YouTube videos supporting this, typically showing members rough handling someone or other, described as a separatist supporter, with Lyashko shouting at and intimidating the poor victim. There are more recent reports of guerilla activity against the checkpoints and other targets around Mariupol. Recent reports suggest more concerted attacks are underway. Is this the start of a second front?
Unconfirmed reports suggest that there is a base nearby where US military specialists train Ukrainians in preparation for being sent to Donbass. There have been claims made that a number of these US individuals have been killed by snipers, one whilst bathing on the beach at Mariupol on 30 July and another on 22 August. A video of this last incident was uploaded to YouTube late in the evening of the 22nd, but was quickly removed, possibly within 12 hours and certainly within 24 hours.
Elsewhere, there have been numerous protests by women throughout Ukraine opposing the mobilisation, now in its third phase. The number reported certainly underestimates the actual number of protests, as one only came to notice because a group from OSCE just happened to be in the place the protests was held at the right time. This event was noted on their website. Until recently most evidence for propaganda took the form of the usual pro-Ukraine march, with large banners, people draping themselves in the flag, the Vyshyvka shirt and the photogenic young women with flowers in their hair. This weekend, a large march was held in Kharkiv, with pro-Novorossia supporters doing the same. They had a large 30 m banner with St George stripes, people were draping themselves in St George flags and women wearing St George ribbons in their hair. The demonstration passed of peacefully, with no sign of the Right Sector opposition.
At the other extreme, there have been attempts at tactical sabotage of infrastructure, typically roads and railways. In the most recent case, a convoy of Ukrainian military fuel tankers was destroyed at a place where the road crossed a railway line. This served to sever both communications routes. The attack made use of mines, RPGs an armor piercing bullets, which in turn suggests effective prior surveillance and planning capabilities for the attackers. The attack took place in central Zaporozhye, the oblast immediately west of Donetsk oblast.
The effects of the mobilisation have had a more substantial effect on two specific areas, one (Transcarpathia) within Ukraine and one (Transnistria) adjoining Ukraine.
Transnistria is a narrow land-locked strip of territory between Moldova and Ukraine. It lies to the east of the river Dniester. It was once part of Moldova but following civil war in 1990-2 and a subsequent cease fire, it is now in an unclear legal position. The inhabitants are strongly pro-Russian and have recently asked to join the Russian Federation. Transnistria is not formally recognized by any major state, but does have a Russian troop presence. The European Court of Human Rights considers that the presence of Russian troops gives Russia effective authority over the territory. Russia states that the troops are there to keep the peace and will be withdrawn once a full settlement is reached. Ukraine is busy constructing a large trench, 5 m wide and 2.5 m deep, along the border with Transnistria. This has raised tensions within Transnistria, though in meetings with the US Ambassador to Moldova, they have stressed they are not proposing to attack anyone. Some speculate that Ukraine is raising tensions here in order to provoke a response from Russia. Any Russian military support would have to cross Ukraine territory allowing it to place Russia in the role of aggressor.
Moldova itself is pro-EU. The EU Association agreement will proceed to completion, though this does not imply automatic integration with the EU. Moldova is expected to go ahead with full integration in the near future. There are a number of complicating factors. The main arises from Moldova's complete reliance on gas from Russia, the supply pipelines for which just happen to pass through Transnistria. Transnistria owes about $4 billion to Gazprom for gas supplied, but Moldova is held responsible for the bill. A second complication arises from a desire of another ethnic group's desire to secede from Moldova. Gaugazia seeks to join Transnistria in an attempt to join the Russian Federation.
The second region, Transcarpathia, forms the western most oblast of Ukraine. It borders four other European countries; Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. It has a very involved political history and a very diverse ethnic composition. The majority speak Ukrainian with a significant minority speaking Hungarian. It is the home of an ethnic group, the Carpathian Rus, whose members spread into south Poland, north Romania and east Slovakia. The terrain is very hilly with steep narrow valleys, making it attractive for tourists.
This area of about 1.2 million people has seen protests against the mobilisation following the deaths in combat of 70 people from the area. The area is also under the control of a regional oligarch, another source of discontent. In the past, Right Sector members have stormed government buildings in the Transcarpathian towns of Berehove and Uzhhorod. The plight of the Hungarians has attracted the attention of the right wing Jobbik party in Hungary who see support for them as a means of gaining votes in Hungary. Representatives of the major Transcarpathian groups have come together announcing their opposition to the Ukrainian regime, and have signed a treaty of mutual assistance and support recently in Yalta. Recently the regional head of the Ukrainian SU has been replaced. A small contingent of Ukrainian military, about 1500 troops and some supporting armored vehicles, has been brought in and stationed near Uzhhorod, a major town close to the border with Slovakia. This seems to be an attempt to clamp down more effectively and to prevent a repeat the events that happened in the south east.
All four countries bordering Transcarpathia have been hit by Russia's reverse sanctions following the imposition of EU sanctions against it. In particular, Hungary has a major trading partner in Russia. Russia is also has a nuclear reactor deal with Hungary to provide it with an alternative energy supply. providing nuclear energy technology. It appears that Hungary would have a strong interest in co-operating with Russia, particularly over the Transcarpathian issue.
Transcarpathia gains additional significance as most of the gas pipelines carrying gas to western Europe pass through it. If Russia was to gain control of this territory, it would then control this choke point on the gas system. This would negate any attempts by the US to gain control of gas flow through Ukraine. This in turn may partly explain Yatsenyuk's haste to sell off Ukraine's pipeline infrastructure. The loss of state control through privatization may in turn have been countered as, in a surprising recent announcement, it seems that Russian interests have acquired ownership of a German company, RWE. This company controls most of the reverse flow pipeline bringing gas back from West Europe into Ukraine.
It seems that all is superficially quiet beyond Novorossia, but this is deceptive and there is scope for dramatic changes. Is the action at Mariupol the start of a second front? Will the events at Kharkiv occur elsewhere? Will the fighting in the south east have the positive benefit of removing fascism from Ukraine? Will a neutral, federated Ukraine arise? Would that be based on existing oblasts or larger ethnic regions? Will Transnistria merge into such a state? Will the curse of the oligarchs be tamed?
The Saker
-------
Reports from Ukraine naturally focus on the horrendous murderous onslaught against the Russian-speaking people in south east Ukraine. Does this mean that all is quiet throughout the rest of the country?
It turns out there is a great deal of sporadic low-level activity against the Ukraine regime. This takes many forms, from peaceful protest to targeted acts of sabotage.
In Odessa, all seems quiet. Many photographs of groups of people displaying the Ukraine flag in oppressions have appeared, with some people wearing the Ukrainian embroidered shirt (Vyshyvka). These include shots of photogenic young women with flowers in their hair. However, the Right Sector symbolism no longer overtly appears. On the other hand, a candle-lit display was held outside the Trades Union building in remembrance of the killed during the false flag operation earlier in May 2014. There are undercurrents of propaganda warfare in which public monuments are painted in a cycle of Ukraine colors followed by Novorossia colors. Interestingly, the Novorossia colors are staying for longer periods of time, suggesting the other side has a reduced capacity to monitor and restore the Ukraine colors. At a more extreme level, branches of Privat Bank have suffered damage from small bombs exploded late at night. This represents an attack on the interests of Kolomoisky, the local oligarch.
In Mariupol, the scene of another attack by Ukraine forces against civilians and police in May, things also seem quiet, but checkpoints still exist on the major roads. Unconfirmed reports suggest the area may be quiet as a result of intimidation from the local right wing groups. Lyashko is reported to have commandeered the house and extensive grounds of a property belonging to Yanukovich. This is located at Uzuf, 20 miles west of Mariupol overlooking the Sea of Azov. This may have been used as the base for training of members of the Azov battalion. Interestingly, a ex-Azov member grew disenchanted with Lyashko, claiming the battalion was used primarily as a vehicle for Lyashko's political ambitions rather than fighting in the south east. There are numerous YouTube videos supporting this, typically showing members rough handling someone or other, described as a separatist supporter, with Lyashko shouting at and intimidating the poor victim. There are more recent reports of guerilla activity against the checkpoints and other targets around Mariupol. Recent reports suggest more concerted attacks are underway. Is this the start of a second front?
Unconfirmed reports suggest that there is a base nearby where US military specialists train Ukrainians in preparation for being sent to Donbass. There have been claims made that a number of these US individuals have been killed by snipers, one whilst bathing on the beach at Mariupol on 30 July and another on 22 August. A video of this last incident was uploaded to YouTube late in the evening of the 22nd, but was quickly removed, possibly within 12 hours and certainly within 24 hours.
Elsewhere, there have been numerous protests by women throughout Ukraine opposing the mobilisation, now in its third phase. The number reported certainly underestimates the actual number of protests, as one only came to notice because a group from OSCE just happened to be in the place the protests was held at the right time. This event was noted on their website. Until recently most evidence for propaganda took the form of the usual pro-Ukraine march, with large banners, people draping themselves in the flag, the Vyshyvka shirt and the photogenic young women with flowers in their hair. This weekend, a large march was held in Kharkiv, with pro-Novorossia supporters doing the same. They had a large 30 m banner with St George stripes, people were draping themselves in St George flags and women wearing St George ribbons in their hair. The demonstration passed of peacefully, with no sign of the Right Sector opposition.
At the other extreme, there have been attempts at tactical sabotage of infrastructure, typically roads and railways. In the most recent case, a convoy of Ukrainian military fuel tankers was destroyed at a place where the road crossed a railway line. This served to sever both communications routes. The attack made use of mines, RPGs an armor piercing bullets, which in turn suggests effective prior surveillance and planning capabilities for the attackers. The attack took place in central Zaporozhye, the oblast immediately west of Donetsk oblast.
The effects of the mobilisation have had a more substantial effect on two specific areas, one (Transcarpathia) within Ukraine and one (Transnistria) adjoining Ukraine.
Transnistria is a narrow land-locked strip of territory between Moldova and Ukraine. It lies to the east of the river Dniester. It was once part of Moldova but following civil war in 1990-2 and a subsequent cease fire, it is now in an unclear legal position. The inhabitants are strongly pro-Russian and have recently asked to join the Russian Federation. Transnistria is not formally recognized by any major state, but does have a Russian troop presence. The European Court of Human Rights considers that the presence of Russian troops gives Russia effective authority over the territory. Russia states that the troops are there to keep the peace and will be withdrawn once a full settlement is reached. Ukraine is busy constructing a large trench, 5 m wide and 2.5 m deep, along the border with Transnistria. This has raised tensions within Transnistria, though in meetings with the US Ambassador to Moldova, they have stressed they are not proposing to attack anyone. Some speculate that Ukraine is raising tensions here in order to provoke a response from Russia. Any Russian military support would have to cross Ukraine territory allowing it to place Russia in the role of aggressor.
Moldova itself is pro-EU. The EU Association agreement will proceed to completion, though this does not imply automatic integration with the EU. Moldova is expected to go ahead with full integration in the near future. There are a number of complicating factors. The main arises from Moldova's complete reliance on gas from Russia, the supply pipelines for which just happen to pass through Transnistria. Transnistria owes about $4 billion to Gazprom for gas supplied, but Moldova is held responsible for the bill. A second complication arises from a desire of another ethnic group's desire to secede from Moldova. Gaugazia seeks to join Transnistria in an attempt to join the Russian Federation.
The second region, Transcarpathia, forms the western most oblast of Ukraine. It borders four other European countries; Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. It has a very involved political history and a very diverse ethnic composition. The majority speak Ukrainian with a significant minority speaking Hungarian. It is the home of an ethnic group, the Carpathian Rus, whose members spread into south Poland, north Romania and east Slovakia. The terrain is very hilly with steep narrow valleys, making it attractive for tourists.
This area of about 1.2 million people has seen protests against the mobilisation following the deaths in combat of 70 people from the area. The area is also under the control of a regional oligarch, another source of discontent. In the past, Right Sector members have stormed government buildings in the Transcarpathian towns of Berehove and Uzhhorod. The plight of the Hungarians has attracted the attention of the right wing Jobbik party in Hungary who see support for them as a means of gaining votes in Hungary. Representatives of the major Transcarpathian groups have come together announcing their opposition to the Ukrainian regime, and have signed a treaty of mutual assistance and support recently in Yalta. Recently the regional head of the Ukrainian SU has been replaced. A small contingent of Ukrainian military, about 1500 troops and some supporting armored vehicles, has been brought in and stationed near Uzhhorod, a major town close to the border with Slovakia. This seems to be an attempt to clamp down more effectively and to prevent a repeat the events that happened in the south east.
All four countries bordering Transcarpathia have been hit by Russia's reverse sanctions following the imposition of EU sanctions against it. In particular, Hungary has a major trading partner in Russia. Russia is also has a nuclear reactor deal with Hungary to provide it with an alternative energy supply. providing nuclear energy technology. It appears that Hungary would have a strong interest in co-operating with Russia, particularly over the Transcarpathian issue.
Transcarpathia gains additional significance as most of the gas pipelines carrying gas to western Europe pass through it. If Russia was to gain control of this territory, it would then control this choke point on the gas system. This would negate any attempts by the US to gain control of gas flow through Ukraine. This in turn may partly explain Yatsenyuk's haste to sell off Ukraine's pipeline infrastructure. The loss of state control through privatization may in turn have been countered as, in a surprising recent announcement, it seems that Russian interests have acquired ownership of a German company, RWE. This company controls most of the reverse flow pipeline bringing gas back from West Europe into Ukraine.
It seems that all is superficially quiet beyond Novorossia, but this is deceptive and there is scope for dramatic changes. Is the action at Mariupol the start of a second front? Will the events at Kharkiv occur elsewhere? Will the fighting in the south east have the positive benefit of removing fascism from Ukraine? Will a neutral, federated Ukraine arise? Would that be based on existing oblasts or larger ethnic regions? Will Transnistria merge into such a state? Will the curse of the oligarchs be tamed?
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