Friday, February 27, 2015

Ukraine February 26th SITREP: A Ukrainian Smørrebrød

Nothing major has happened over the past 24 hours, but a lot of small but interesting things have happened in the past couple of days.  What I propose to do first today is to list them with a URL to the original source:

A Ukrainian Smørrebrød:

According to a recent poll of the Lithuanian TV station TV3 82% of their viewers say that Russian media info is trustworthy.  Get the details here in English from FortRuss:

There is now also a petition in the UK to oppose UK military involvement in the Ukraine.  See here:

A Swiss newspaper is saying that the US delivered four mini-nukes to the Ukraine.  I am 99.9999% sure that this is nonsense.  But the rumor itself is an interesting fact.  See here:

Neocons still want to believe that they will beat Russia.  See here:

Russia and Cyprus has signed a military agreement.  See here:

Russia is offering Antey-2500 missiles to Iran.  See here:

Ukraine is entering hyperinflation.  See here:

Prices are causing shortages in the Ukraine.  See here:

The OSCE is doing it's utmost not to notice that Novorussia is withdrawing its heavy weapons while the junta is not.  See here:

Three citizens of Donetsk were executed by the Novorussian authorities for committing terrorist attacks using a 82mm mortar against the civilian population.  Their motive?  Money.  See here:

The US/NATO are continuing their saber-rattling along the Russian border.  See here:

Novorussians soldiers are finding US equipment including communication gear in Debaltsevo. See here:

Zakharchenko is fed up with junta's non-compliance with the Minsk accords and has issued an ultimatum: comply by tomorrow or else.  See here:


It is quite clear that the junta is either unable or unwilling to implement the Minsk-2 Agreements (M2A) and that the US is acting like that agreement was never signed in the first place.  In fact, since Poroshenko's power is entirely dependent on US support, I consider him as little more then the executioner of US orders with little or no power of his own.

There are more and more signs indicating that M2A was a major victory for Russia which succeeded in making the Europeans commit to something the US does not want and which Poroshenko cannot deliver on.  Clearly, the US is now using all its power to get the OSCE to shut up and look the other way, but time is definitely on the Novorussian side: they can wait until it is clear that it was the junta which did not comply with M2A at which point the Russian-Novorussian border will de jure be lost for the junta (de facto they lost it last summer).

Zakharchanko is literally radiating confidence and so are the other Novorussians.  The contrast with the chaos in Kiev could not be greater.

As for the US, it is acting like reality simply does not exist.  For Uncle Sam, it purely "more of the same", more rhetoric, more saber-rattling, more hot air even though nobody seems to be taking it very seriously.

What will be crucial in the near future is to see whether Merkel and Hollande will hold the course on M2A or whether Uncle Sam will force them to cave in yet again.  They now have *a lot* invested in M2A, but then again, so did the EU with Southstream.  My feeling is that right now anything could happen, it is a 50/50 situation.  Lavrov is doing a great job demanding that the German and French stick to the deal and so is Zakharchenko.

All in all, I am rather satisfied with the recent developments.

The Saker

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