Friday, February 6, 2015

Quick update on Debaltsevo

Couple of things:

The evacuation of civilians basically failed. First, the buses got stuck and had to wait due to nearby mortar shelling, then only 3 buses (out of 20) were filled with refugees, nobody else wanted to leave and, considering the risks, I don't blame them.  This is a terrible thing to say, but not boarding these buses today was the prudent thing to do (today, the junta forces fired at refugees near Lugansk).

Now take a look at this map from militarymaps:

Then compare with this one from Cassad:

Do you see what I see?  Check out the two black bars I added to Cassad's map.  I see that the Debaltsevo cauldron is getting double-locked with a second "lid" near that Svetlodarsk (СВЕТЛОДАРСК) Krasnyi Pakhar (КРАСНЫЙ ПАХАРЬ) line with the bodies of water making things much worse for the junta.

Lot's of rumors about the Merkel-Hollande proposal, but I rather wait for facts before posting anything about it.

Hopefully, later today.

The Saker