11 Feb, 2015 at 5:54
WHO, FROM WHERE AND WITH WHAT FIRED AT KRAMATORSK ON FEBRUARY 10, 2015?
Today, your faithful servant tried to deal with the issues in the title.
Let's start with the last question:
To answer this question we will need the pictures, published yesterday in the Ukrainian media, and videos posted by the residents of KRAMATORSK.
For those who haven't seen it:
Video # 1:
Without going into the details of the methodology of searching for the location, from which this video was filmed, after applying it to the terrain, it is highly probable to conclude that the main impact area of most of the exploded ammunition (or rather their damaging elements), was the KRAMATORSK airfield and the nearby area of garage, cottage and dacha [small summer houses with gardens - tr.] buildings.
Map # 1:
We see that the shrapnel was very scattered, covering a sufficiently large area. And yet, the video and the map do not give us a definite answer to the question "WITH WHAT?"
However, in video # 1 a gradual wave of a series of explosions is well observed - at first far away, then closer and closer to the point of filming. The direction of the wave is from the Southeast to the Northwest.
Towards the city center.
It was also hit. Almost in the heart of Kramatorsk fell the non-explosive, or unexploded elements of ammunition.
Video # 2:
There is another video with ammunition right in the yard of houses.
Here the address is named in the video:
It is a courtyard of the angular houses on Dvortsovaya street , #47, and Yubileynaya #23.
Will try to accurately establish the location of filming of video #2 using photos posted on the websites of Ukrainian media.
Thus, the exact address of the point of impact of the rocket on Video #2 - is Dvortsovaya street, between the houses #26 and #34
Map № 3:
Same area, but zoomed in:
Map № 4:
Pictures from the location of filming of the Video #2, and the video itself allow us to determine the type of ammunition with a high probability.
For example, by comparison:
Here is an image of the same ammo taken in Syria:
Photo # 9:
And this a picture not from Syria:
You probably already guessed, where the photo #10 was taken?
And here is another photo of a rocket which fell at Dvortsovaya street, between the houses #26 and #34.
Photo № 11:
Do you see similarities between the last two pictures?
I will make it easy.
On pictures #9, 10 and 11, and the one below - is ammunition for multiple rocket launcher system "Smerch" (Tornado), 300 mm caliber, marked 9M55.
Minimum firing range for this rocket - 20-25 kilometers (depending on modification). The maximum is 70 kilometers.
The projectile can be loaded with a monobloc high-explosive warhead or cluster striking elements.
A cluster warhead can contain 72 shrapnel, or more than 600 cumulative-shrapnel elements.
One "Tornado" launcher has 12 tracks for such missiles.
The area of damage - 672 000 square meters from one launcher.
Accuracy (dispersion) - of 0.3% of range
Now the question is: where did the fire came from?
You see, dear readers, any self-respecting ammunition rocket fired from a gun, or MRLS at an angle close to 45 degrees, flies along the trajectory, the path of which resembles a parabola with two branches. The ascending branch (red) will be more gentle and descending (blue)- more steep.
A rocket, due to the stabilizer at the tail, behaves on the descending branch of the trajectory, as an arrow released from a bow. And if it hits the ground, then it strikes it at an angle, which is determined by the tangent to the trajectory at the point of the strike.
The tilt of the body of the projectile will always be in the direction, from which it had come. Plus or minus a few degrees. Even if it hits a concrete slab.
Where is the angle of the projectile directed, which had fallen between the houses # 26 and 34 on the Dvortsovaya street?
Let's look at the photo again.
The direction from which the rocket came is shown by the red arrow:
As we see, the rocket came practically between the houses #24 and 34 on Dvortsovaya street from the direction of the yard and barely missed the street.
Let's apply the point of impact and its direction to a satellite image.
The conclusion is simple - the rocket came from Southwest direction.
Now lets carefully apply the diagram onto the map of hostilities, regularly published on the pages of this blog.
And then measure the maximum and minimum range of fire of MLRS "Tornado" [Russian - Smerch] in the Southwestern direction. We get the area, from which the strike was made.
Calculated direction of fire - thick blue-yellow arrow.
Green arrows - possible scattering of shells, plus the possibility of errors in the calculation. Brown dashed line defines the technically possible location of starting positions of MRLS Tornado, which fired on KRAMATORSK.
Until the nearest positions of NAF from there - not less than 35 km
By the way, dear reader!
Similar calculations of the trajectory of the rocket from the point of filming of video # 2 at the address of another point of impact (courtyard of houses #47 Dvortsovaya street, and #23 Yubilejnaya street, you may conduct yourselves.
If you do this faithfully, you will be surprised by arriving at the same results as myself!
Now to answer the question "Who fired?" we need to have just a drop of common sense. For the calculated area, from which KRAMATORSK was striked, is located deep inside the territory, which has been long and firmly in control of the forces of the ATO [Ukraine].
While it is 35 (thirty-five!) kilometers away from the nearest units of the armies of DPR and LPR.
Sincerely, Dragon First.
About the scattering of the soil in a North-Westerly direction at the crater of the rocket.
Upon careful examination of the images it is clear that in the ground at the impact site was a kind of reinforced concrete structure. On photos No. 15 and 16 a beam of this structure is circled with a yellow oval. One end of the beam is exposed from the ground in the direction shown by the yellow arrow. This end took this position because the other end was "sunk" into the ground under the force of the rocket impact in the direction indicated by an orange arrow.
As a result of this shift, pieces of concrete, (the largest of which is shown by the broken yellow line) were elevated above the ground level and turned the layer of soil that has accumulated for the most part to the left from the direction of the flight of the rocket (shown with a large red arrow).
On the left - because the rocket impact was not on the center of the structure, but its edge, or corner. With the same probability, the impact could be on the other edge of the structure, and then the soil would be pushed to the right, or behind the rocket relative to the direction of its path.
About the "maximum range" of "Tornado" being 120 km, specified in Wikipedia.
With all due respect to this source of information in the same article in the expanded table more detailed information about the maximum ranges of firing of different types of ammunition is provided. In particular, with cluster warheads, which were used in KRAMATORSK.
The maximum range for:
9M55K - 70 000 meters
9M55K5 - 70 000 meters
And, about WHO fired:
Here are interesting photos with geotags: