Saturday, July 5, 2014

Does the shelling of the Russian border posts really matter?

For days now the Ukie forces have been regularly shelling Russian border posts "by mistake".  So far, I think that only one officer was wounded, but that nobody has been killed.  Russian ammo-disposal control specialists have been sent to get rid of the unexploded ordinance, and some border crossings had to be closed, typically for a couple of hours.

Does that matter and should anybody care?

Absolutely.  Just like the fall of Slaviansk, the regularity of such "mistaken" shelling of the Russian side of the border is militarily irrelevant, but it is symbolic of the fact that the Ukie chihuahua can bite the Russian bear in total impunity.  And what is the point of ignoring these "provocations" when there is an obvious response which nobody could dispute and which would be absolutely legal in terms of international (and Russian) law: fire back to *protect the Russian servicemen and civilians".  This is really not that hard at all.  Install a few batteries of Uragan MLRS in the right spots, set up a few counter-battery radars, place a few fire controllers along the border and wait for the Ukies to make yet another "mistake".  And then turn the offending unit into dust with a single well-placed strike.  Finally, announce that you will be doing just that every time the Ukies make that "mistake" again.

Again, that would be absolutely legal in terms of international law, that could not be construed as a Russian "escalation" or "provocation" and it could even serve as a very nice protection to any NDF unit near the Russian border.

Right now, all the Russian passivity is achieving is further exiting the Ukie arrogance and total sense of impunity.

The Saker