Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Ukraine SITREP June 11th, 16:28 UTC/Zulu: is something changing?

Combat SITREP by Juan

1. Nats Army offer of civilian evacuation corridors rejected. Corridors led only west in to national guard/right sector unit areas and demanded self defense units disarm and surrender.

2. Continuing heavy bombardment of Slavyansk and outlying areas. Confirmed 4 children under age 10 killed last 3 days. Living areas and industry areas targeted including 15.2 cm howitzers and Grad.

3. краснолиманскому area confirmed 2 Grad units destroyed with crews and support vehicles 09 June 03:00 attack of Novorossiya Army units.

4. Nats suffer heavy losses last 4 days. Nats removing destroyed vehicles and armor when possible. Reason unknown. Ural tank transporters used for removal. One photo destroyed/burned T64 turret in transporter. T64 hull not seen.

5. Strong explosion and short fire area Karachun Mountains 03:15 11 June.

6. Unconfirmed reports of large number bodies found in deep lake краснолиманскому area, bodies weighted.

7. Large amount ammunition found on two abandoned Kamaz transports Lugansk area. Numbers of Kamaz Nats army.

8. Unconfirmed reports 10 June large number national guard/right sector troops surrounded Lugansk aerodrome.

9. 07:12 11 June heavy fighting area краснолиманскому.

10. Additional unverified but deemed reliable reports of replacement aircraft and crew sent to Nats Army from Poland and FRG.

11. Refugees continue to arrive Rostov Oblast and Autonomous Republic of Krimea. One group 4 families detained arrival by van. Suspicions of 22 year old husbands with 8 year old children and all documents Ukraine new. Children being cared for.

12. Scattered engagements areas Slavyansk and Kramatorsk growing in intensity 06:15 11 June.

13. Report of secretary general of OSCE to visit Rostov na Donu to interview refugees. Suggestion a visit to Slavyansk and краснолиманскому.

SITREP by The Saker

There are lots of Ukraine connected news today.  First, we got the confirmation that Poroshenko is a US agent.  Then we have the very infulential Sergei Glazyev who is now calling for the imposition of a no-fly zone over Novorossia.  And finally we have an interesting theory about the role Slavainsk is playing in the current war: according to the Russian blogger Yurasumy, Slaviansk today has the same role as Stalingrad in WWII: to tie down a large enemy force and to keep the battle going there while the "flanks" are being prepared for a counter-offensive.  In this context, I have to notice that the Russian newspaper Segodnia is reporting that he Ukie HQ was moved back from Izium to Chuguev near Kharkov precisely to avoid being trapped in an encirclement.  Combine that with the news that at least two Ukie MRLS have been destroyed and that at least 3 Ukie tanks have been rendered inoperable and you start getting an interesting picture: things are starting to look worse and worse for the junta in Kiev.

In contrast, though the situation is still murky, there are more and more reports indicated that the critical manpower issue has dramatically improved.  Only yesterday evening a Vostok battalion officer was asked by Russian reporters how many men the NDF had to which he replied "enough".  As for weapons, Juan and others are reporting that the number of "abandoned" weapons "found" in various locations is increasing and that now these weapons include more modern and more recent systems, including armor and artillery.  True, the defenders of Novorossia still lack any kind of air capability, but their air defense seems to have taken a very heavy toll on the Junta forces.  I have personally seen recent footage of advanced NDF air defense radars (with crews) combined with underground command posts.  I think that something might slowly changing in the combat dynamic.

One possible explanation for what has happened is that by openly stating that Russia will not intervene Putin has forced the people of Novorossia to realize that they will need to stand their ground on their own.  The numbers are still not what they should be, but their increase has been significant to allow the Novorossians to go on the offensive in locations where this would have been absolutely impossible just a few weeks ago.

The key event I will be looking for in the next couple of weeks are diversionary attacks in junta death squads outside the cities were the battles are taking place now.  Fighting the Ukies in Slaviansk and Kramatorsk is the right first step, but the entire Donbass has now to turn into a no-go zone for the Kiev junta.  Supply convoys, ammo dumbs, airfields, roads, bridges, train tracks, water pumping stations, and basically everything except field hospitals should now be attacked.  Notice I did not say "destroyed" or "captured" - only *attacked*.  The key goal here is to create chaos and demoralize the junta units and not to achieve a "victory".

In conclusion I would like to recommend a blog: No Bread and Circuses for You which has a lot of good materials in English about the war in Ukraine.  Also, Club Orlov has posted a recent interview of Dmitri Orlov which I found interesting (see here).