Monday, June 30, 2014

How far can Russians retreats? (In memory of Anatolii Klian)

The murder of Anatolii Klian

I just watched a sickening and immensely sad report on Russian TV about the death of the Anatolii Klian, a 68 old cameraman for Channel One: you can see this report here and you can also read the RT article about his death, including videos, here. Of course, this is only one death of one man, whereas the tragedy which is taking place before our eyes affects in one way or another millions of people. The problem with figures like "millions" is that they tend to conceal the tragedy of the individual suffering of each one of these "millions" of human being that we heard about. So today I want to dedicate this post to just this one person who was murdered only because he was living and working according to his conscience and whose life was snuffed-out by thugs who richly deserve to be called "Nazis" but who are presented to us as "Europeans" who have made the "civilizational choice" to abandon the realm of the Asian brutes living in the East and who now returned to their common home known has "civilized Europe".

Со святыми упокой, Анатолий, и вечная память!


The current situation: a mixed bag

The news out of Novorussia is a mixed bag of reasons to hope and reasons to despair. The so-called "peace initiative" of Poroshenko is either an obscene mis-characterization or, at best, a not so funny joke: the Ukies are still shelling and sniping at civilians every day, and in Kiev a mass rally took place not to demand a real ceasefire, oh no, but to demand a full scale resumption of hostilities! As for the AngloZionists, not in the least impressed by Putin's various attempts at appeasing their paranoid russophobia, they are again threatening Russia with more sanctions. On the other hand, there are plenty of signs that the Novorussian side is getting stronger with each passing day: entire units are switching sides without a single shot fired, Novorussian special forces have apparently succeeded in taking control of some very advanced air-defense missiles near Donetsk (though it is unclear to me if these systems are still operational or not), somebody has apparently "lost" at least three howitzers on the road (which were immediately taken over by the NDF) and the number of volunteer fighters ready to defend the Donbass is steadily growing each day. Where this is all going is too early to call: the Ukies have now used chemical munitions and there are consistent reports of huge columns of Ukie military convoys entering the Donbass. Though I personally hope that the Ukies have by now maxed out their war effort, this is far from being certain and there remains the very real possibility of Poroshenko's "Plan B" happening next: the plan apparently, consists of a 3-pronged attack on the Donbass: from the northwest (Kharkov), the west (Dnepropetrovsk) and the south (Mariupol). Combined with an move to block the border in the east, such a "Plan B" would put all of Novorussia at a huge risk.

I confess to suffering from Analytical Multiple Personality Disorder

As you know, I suffer from AMPD - "analytical multiple personality disorder": one one hand I simply cannot wait any longer for a Russian military intervention to finally stop the UkroNazi onslaught on Novorussia, while on the other hand I am fully aware that this would be a mistake. My gut tell me "crush these bastards!" while my brain tells me "don't take the bait!".

Yesterday evening, after listening to the latest news, I was walking around with my now usual knot in my stomach: a dozen of different "what ifs" were tormenting me from inside: what if Putin has been intimidated or bought off? What if he does not have a plan and what if the current Russian stance is only a reflection of a frightening and confused Russian leadership? Or what if Putin and his advisers have cynically decided to trade Novorussia for Crimea or, even worse, Novorussia for lucrative contracts?

Judging by some of the comments posted here, there are many of you who apparently believe that I am a Putin-groupie and that I never have doubts about him. If only you knew how wrong you are! I have doubts, and I even have fears, but I try not to let them overwhelm me because I don't believe that these are helpful analytical tools. But to those of you who say that Putin is clueless or has sold out I will reply this: you have no more evidence of that than I have evidence of the contrary, and we will not know until this situation fully plays itself out.

So we are all stuck in the anguish of having to wait. To wait while innocent people are getting murdered, while the EU plutocracy is giving standing ovations to a clearly Nazi regime in Kiev and while Uncle Sam is making more threats against Russia every day. To anybody who truly and sincerely cares for the people of Novorussia is type of waiting is nothing short of a psychological torture. I can tell you that my last thought when I go to sleep and my very first thought when I wake up is:

How far can the Russians retreat?

Yesterday I suddenly realized that this is not the first time that this question is dividing the Russian society. During the European invasion of Russia under Napoleon (of the almost 700'000 soldiers which invaded Russia in 1812 only about half were French: the rest were from almost all the other European nations, mostly Germans and Poles) the very same issue divided Russian society. At the time both Field Marshal Barclay de Tolly and later Field Marshal Mihail Kutuzov were fiercely criticized for their policy of retreating before Napoleon's armies. Unlike what happened during WWII where the Soviet retreat was not planned but forced by a stunningly successful German attack, the Russian retreat in the War of 1812 was completely deliberate and, I would argue, logical. Things got so ugly that Barclay de Tolly (who was an ethnic Scotsman) was accused of being a coward and a secret agent for Napoleon. When the "ethnically correct" Russian Kutuzov (who had served with distinction under the most famous Russian general of all times, Alexander Suvorov, and whose patriotism and courage could not be put in doubt) was appointed to replace Barclay de Tolly, he decided to follow exactly the same strategy. In fact, Kutuzov ordered the Russian army to retreat as far as the small town of Borodino, roughly 120km west Moscow, before engaging the armies of Napoleon in a huge battle. The outcome of the battle was arguably a mutual bloodbath and a draw (I would call it a tactical victory for the French and an operational-strategic victory for the Russians), Kutuzov further pulled back his forces and gave up Moscow without firing a single shot! Pushed by his hubris and ego, Napoleon took the bait and entered Moscow waiting for the Russian side to hand him the keys of the city. The Russians never showed up and, after waiting (and using the Kremlin's churches as stables for his horses!), the "Grande Armée" began a hideous retreat. From the 690,000 men that comprised the initial invasion force, only 93,000 survived (barely, at the Berezina the European army was almost surrounded!) By March of 1814 the Russian army was camping in Paris and Talleyrant had to give the keys of Paris to the Russian Czar Alexander I.

There was more to this Russian strategy of retreat than just the desire to literally "trade space for lives" or the desire to place more stress on the enemy's supply lines. The Russians had painfully learned this strategy from the Mongols who often retreated before the advancing Russian forces before destroying them (typically by setting the steppe on fire and by a envelopment maneuver). In warfare, as in chess, timing is an absolutely crucial factor which cannot be ignored.

But coming back to Barclay the Tolly and Kutuzov, can we now even begin to imagine the kind of anguish they must have faced? Being called traitors, foreign agents, cowards by the entire court (safely removed from any personal risk in Saint Petersburg) and probably by most of Russian society? I don't think that anybody can imagine the kind of pressure to change strategy Alexander I, Barclay the Tolly and Kutuzov must have faced, especially after the surrender of Moscow. And yet, time has fully vindicated them and their superb strategic instincts. Though this is impossible to prove, the consensus if military historians us that had the Russian army given Napoleon his first real battle somewhere West of Smolensk it would have been smashed and ended up retreating just the same, but this time in complete chaos and very few survivors.

So the correct answer to the question above is: Russia can retreat as far as needed to win.

Objection: Putin is no Alexander I

Agreed. Neither are Poroshenko or Obama Napoleon, not by a long shot. But then neither is the current war on Russia (because that is exactly what it taking place) a 19th century kind of war. It is a 21st century war, WWIV (if WWIII was the so-called "Cold War").

If the Russians have learned from their multiple military defeats at the hands of the Mongols, then the West Europeans have learned from their multiple military defeats at the hands of the Russians.

Over and over again have western invaders attacked Russia and over and over again they have failed to prevail, at least in a military sense. But these western military defeats overshadow an equally long list successful cultural and religious interventions.

First, the Papacy was successful in converting (by force and corruption) Lithuanians and West-Russians (the future Ukrainians). Then, for a while, the Mongol occupation of Russia provided a kind of painful but effective shield against western crusaders, but at the end of the Mongol occupation, and following the brilliant reign of Ivan III (one of the best Russian rulers ever), then Vasilii III and Ivan IV (aka "The Terrible") the Russian state rapidly degenerated into a period of chaos called the Troubled Times. Here again, the West attempted to invade Russia and the Poles even place one of their agents, the so-called False Dimitri, on the throne of Russia while, in a typical act of Latin hatred for the Orthodox Church, beating starving to death the Russian Patriarch Saint Germogenes (some things never change). Eventually, the Poles and their Jesuit masters were kicked out and eventually a Zemskii Sobor the young son of the metropolitan Philaret, Michael Romanov, as Czar of Russia. While externally peace had returned to Russia, internally powerful pro-western forces were gradually becoming stronger, especially in the Russian elites. Their time came when Peter I (aka "The Great") came to power in 1682. Though I don't want to turn this into a detailed historical analysis, I would argue that the Russian people and culture have essentially been more or less successfully suppressed from Peter I to Vladimir Putin. While some of Russia's rulers tried hard to restore and uphold the Russian culture and Orthodox Christianity (especially Alexander III and Saint Nicholas II), the Russian aristocracy - which was largely composed of Free-Masons - systematically viciously opposed such efforts. The mechanism we see today in Russia - the ruler supported by the people struggles against the elites supported by the West - is nothing new, it has been going on for several centuries.

Furthermore, what is the very existence of a so-called "Ukraine" (without the "the" article placed before it) if not a huge strategic success of the West European elites? Think of it - in 1812 there was no "Ukrainian collaborators welcoming the French even though the latter had promised to "free" the Russians peasants. Just one century later not only did the many Ukrainians welcome the Germans will flowers (which, considering what the Soviet Commissars had done to them, I fully understand), but many sincerely considered themselves as a distinct ethnicity with nothing positive in common with the Russian people. How is that not a remarkable success of western elites?

As for the Soviet period, I personally consider that all the Soviet rulers from Lenin to Gorbachev were russophobes who, each in their own way, at best, had little in common with the Russian culture and people (Gorbachev), at worst, had a genocidal hatred for the Russian people (Lenin and Trotsky). Still, during the Second World War and after, the Russian culture and national awareness slowly began to re-emerge, even during the rule of such degenerate scumbags like Khrushchev or Eltsin. As I have written in the past, I believe that Vladimir Putin came to power pushed by such "national" forces inside the KGB, albeit with a oligarchy-backed Medvedev to keep him in check. The point of all this is to remind everybody of an crucial and overlooked fact: the West has had a more or less firm grip on the "neck of Russian authorities" since at least from 1682 to 2000 - three hundred and eighteen years! As for Putin, he was formally appointed in 1999 and elected in 2000, but his period of more or less full control of Russia only began in 2012, only two years ago (I have written about this especially here but also here and here) and in these two years his systematic opposition to the AngloZionist Empire has earned him the passionate hatred of the western plutocracy which he apparently "disappointed". Those who so casually accuse Putin of being a coward, a NWO agent, of selling out or of being outmaneuvered should at the very least familiarize themselves with the basic elements of Russian history and compare what Putin did in two years to what has been taking place for the past 300 centuries.

Still, I have to agree that even though Putin's record is nothing short of stellar, at least so far, the the big unanswered question remains:

What will Putin now do next?

My honest reply is simple: I don't know. I really don't know. I have already candidly shared my worst fears with you and I have also repeated many times that I don't see sufficient reasons to doubt that Putin will eventually take action when he decides that the right moment has come. Does that mean that I trust him? No. But it does mean that I don't have cause to lose hope in him either.

For those who constantly berate Putin for not doing enough (or even not doing anything), I would say that there is also no reasons to assume that the junta in Kiev has the means to crush the Novorussian resistance. If so, then let me immediately add this: it would be far preferable for Novorussia, Russia and even Europe if Novorussia succeeded in fighting off the Nazi death squads without overt Russian help than with. As for an overt Russian military intervention, this would objectively be an extremely undesirable outcome for everybody except Uncle Sam and his puppets at the EU. It might come to that, I often suspect it probably will, but this would be a forced outcome, one whose initiation would already constitute a victory for the AngloZionists regardless of the actual outcome of the Russian military operation (which no halfway informed person could possibly doubt).

In the June 24th SITREP I wrote:
Again, we have a situation in which Poroshenko or, should I say, Poroshenko's puppeteers in Washington, are absolutely determined to achieve either one of the following goals:
1) To extend Banderastan all the way to the Russian border
2) To force Russia to openly intervene militarily in the Donbass

This is a winning strategy because Kiev has the means to achieve at least one of these goals and Putin does not have a third option. The Kremlin's preferred solution - to have Novorossia successfully resist the Ukie aggression - does not seem to be achievable, at least not if the Kremlin does not take dramatic action to change the dynamic on the ground.
This begs the question of how much is "dramatic"? I would argue that any action which allows Novorussia to successfully resist the Ukie aggression is, by that definition, a "dramatic enough" action. What would this action be composed of?

1) Covert military and technical aid to the Novorussian resistance.
2) Political denunciation of the junta's atrocities and provocations.
3) A constant attempt at putting a political and financial wedge between the EU and the US.
4) A constant preparation of the Russian public opinion for a possible use of the Russian armed forces to "save Novorussia".
5) A uninterrupted struggle to replace as many "Atlantic Integrationists" with as many "Eurasian Sovereignists" (for a definition, see the links above) in key positions in the Kremlin.

As of now, I have all the reasons to believe that this is exactly what is taking place. I don't know about tomorrow, much less so about what will happen in a week, month or year. But as of now - this is what I see and this is why I say that as of now it is too early to accuse Putin of anything else than prudence and sound planning.

Now I will readily admit that this strategy, while possibly "dramatic enough" in purely rational terms, is not dramatic enough for my heart. I have visions of Right Sector death squads suddenly coming face-to-face with Polite Armed Men in Green, visions of a pair MiG-31 shutting down the entire airspace over Novorossia while Russian Su-34 are bombing the shit (pardon my French) out of the Ukie artillery positions, I have visions of a group of Vympel operators yanking Liashko or Kolomoiski out of bed and taking them to Kolyma via Moscow, just has I have visions of the French people overthrowing the Zionist plutocracy in power and replacing it by a truly French committee national salvation. I even have visions of true American people finally giving the boot to the truly satanic 1%ers who are occupying the US and visions of the US becoming a "normal" country. And that is all well and dandy for the "nobody blogger" which I am, but that is not a luxury that a head of state like Putin can afford.

In conclusion I will say that nobody will be more ashamed and mortified than me if it turns out that Putin's Russia will abandon her people in Novorussia to the US/EU backed Nazi invaders and their death squads. If that happens, there will be no need to gloat and tell me "we told you so" because if you tell me so now, it would only be for all the wrong reasons. Yes, such a betrayal is possible, but no, emphatically no, there is no basis as of now to conclude that such a betrayal has already happened or is in the making.

Every morning I wake up with the fear that "it" might have happened mixed with the hope that the much awaited Russian "push back" has finally begun. So far, neither has happened and, yes, Russia is retreating. And only God knows for how long or how far.

The Saker