Monday, April 21, 2014

Ukraine SITREP April 21, 1932 UTC/Zulu

The situation in the Ukraine continues to be characterized by complete chaos and a gradual and steady strengthening of the resistance in the East.

Following the attack by pro-regime forces on a resistance checkpoint in Slaviansk over the week-end Foreign Minister Lavrov has accused the revolutionary regime in Kiev of breaking the terms of the accord.

One could argue that this attack was decided by the Right Sector (that is the conclusion that the Russian-speakers have come to based on the weapons and documents they seized) and that the cannot control them.  That is probably quite true (even though the Right Sector has denied being involved).  But the regime also declared that the demonstrators which are currently occupying the Maidan square in Kiev have a permit and are there legally.  Truly, whether the regime does not want to enforce the terms of the agreement or whether it cannot do so make very little difference to the Russian-speakers in the East: they still have to bury the same number of people and they still face the same threat.  Take a look at what Right Sector thugs did to a Russian-speaker yesterday: (no translation needed)

And this is just one example amongst many.

Another telling video is the one of the man trying to stop an armored vehicle by standing in front of it: (again, no translation needed here either)

To be really honest, I have the feeling that a negotiated solution is pretty much impossible at this point.  The East really has nobody to negotiate with.

At this point in time I see the following developments taking place:

1) The resistance in the East get more weapons, more men, more checkpoints, better communication, better organization and discipline.
2) Most cities in the East will organize some kind of referendum.
3) The government in Kiev will nothing done at all.
4) The Right Sector will continue to try to attack all those who dare disagree.
5) The Ukrainian military will not assist the regime in Kiev
6) The West will remain eyes wide shut and defend the regime and everything it does or does not do.

If the above is correct, the the East might as well forget any notion of federation and they should secede.  If they do that, they would probably have to join Russia just for their own safety.  As for Russia, if the East secedes and asks for protection, it will have no choice other than to provide either troops or some kind of security guarantees.  Either way, the West will have a hysterical fit of truly monumental proportions and NATO will even probably organize some grand maneuver to show how determined the West is to resist should Moscow decide to invade Poland, Germany or even Portugal.

As for the regime in Kiev, it is really in complete disarray.  Sometimes, this become outright comical.  It actually went as far as publishing on open letter of the Ministry of Internal Affairs praising the Berkut police for their courage and asking them to help defend the Ukraine.  If these neo-Nazis are now trying to get the help from the very same Berkut which they attacked, stabbed, stoned, shot at, defamed, burned, humiliated and even disbanded - this means that they are really desperate.

As for the West, it has discredited itself with the East to such a degree that I would find it hard to imagine that anybody would take its promises seriously.

If I am correct, we should now enter a phase of decay and break-up.

Stay tuned,

The Saker