Dear friends,
I am totally sick with the flu and I don't feel like writing much, but I hear so much nonsense about the blast in Moscow that I want to share some really quick thoughts with you:
1) Don't rush to blame the Chechens for what happened. Yes, it most definitely *could* be them, but there are *many* other possible explanations including, but not limited to, the following:
a) Western and Zionists interests who might try to push Russia into a more obedient role in the "coalition of the willing" worldwide
b) Interests - Russian or other - which might try to upset the current dialog between Moscow and the Karzai administration
c) A false-flag operation by Russian elements interested in creating the conditions for more "security measures" Russia
2) Even if the suicide bombers are ethnic Chechens, we should not rush to any conclusions since, as so often the case with Muslim extremists, it is far from certain that the suicide bombers really knew whose interests they were promoting with their actions.
3) No amount of "security measures" can defeat this type of attacks. The fact that they occurred does not necessarily indicate a failure of the security services (although it could), and no amount of additional measures can prevent further attacks.
4) The Medvedev administration did take one very bad decision today - the decision to order the Mayor of Moscow, along with many other officials, to immediately personally visit the site of the blast. If the terrorists had shown more foresight, they could have prepared a 2nd explosive to detonate when the big politicos would show up.
Still, the Chechen terror hypothesis is not unreasonable and should not be rejected out of hand either. The Chechen insurgency has been militarily defeated, and it has now been reduced to a terror-capability-level similar to what the IRA had during the 'Troubles' in Northern Ireland. Even though pretty much all the main Chechen insurgency leaders have been killed, and even though the remaining Chechen insurgents are mostly busy fighting over who should be considered the "Emir of the North Caucasian Emirate" (sic), their insurgency still has money and enough resources to switch from insurgency operations to banal terrorism. In fact, a terrorist attack like the one which occurred today could very much be a Chechen way of "fund raising" from their foreign 'sponsors' by proving that they still can strike in the Russian capital.
Yet, if we follow the age old advice of cui bono, I would not necessarily have the Chechen terrorists on the top of my list (though I might well by tomorrow morning, depending on what I learn overnight)
My 2cts.
The Saker
