Their slogans were:
“We love Prophet Mohammed”
“No to Mohammed cartoons”
“Islam is a religion of peace and creation”
“Violence is not the method”
Orthodox priest from Chechnia and other regions joined the demonstrations.
Showing posts with label Chechnia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chechnia. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
One millon Muslims and Orthodox Christians in the streets of Grozny
Over a million people - Muslims and Orthodox Christians - have taken to the streets of Grozny to protest against the caricatures of Prophet Mohammed by the Charlie Hebdo magazine:
Their slogans were:
“We love Prophet Mohammed”
“No to Mohammed cartoons”
“Islam is a religion of peace and creation”
“Violence is not the method”
Orthodox priest from Chechnia and other regions joined the demonstrations.
Their slogans were:
“We love Prophet Mohammed”
“No to Mohammed cartoons”
“Islam is a religion of peace and creation”
“Violence is not the method”
Orthodox priest from Chechnia and other regions joined the demonstrations.
Friday, December 5, 2014
What the fallout of the recent combats in Grozny says about relationship between Putin and Kadyrov
The Russian media has provided more details about what exactly happened in Grozny. The picture did not fundamentally change, but there are a few interesting details. It turns out that the group of Wahabis were ethnic Chechens, at least for 4 out of 9, and that they managed to enter Grozny in several cars. This is not much of a feat, since the checkpoints at the entry of the city have been removed for a long time already. The terrorists then proceeded to drive downtown and around 2AM they stopped in the middle of the road, which was empty as it was night. Some neighbors spotted them and used their cellphones to film them walking around their cars. Then either they got stopped by a police patrol or they attacked it (I heard both versions). They then fled to an empty building taking up to 20 IED with them.
They did not make any particular demands but one of them managed to upload a video into the social media saying that 1500 combatants had entered the city. The seemed to have freaked out the local authorities enough to launch a city-wide anti-terrorist plan but since no further insurgents were found, it was soon canceled. The building (a printing house, which was empty at night) was surrounded and a firefight ensued at which point the security forces opened up with machine, grenades and anti-tank weapons which set fire to the building but also damaged the nearby market which burned down. The insurgents began taking casualties so they ran to a nearby school but they were intercepted and shot.
All in all, it appears to me that these insurgents acted with a fantastic lack of tactical skills which is very uncharacteristic of Chechen fighters who (whatever side they are on) are usually formidable combatants. The guys who got shot appeared to have been very dangerous but clowns nonetheless, not sophisticated operators. This is definitely good news.
Interestingly, Ramzan Kadyrov publicly apologized to Putin for these events on the day of his address to the Federal Assembly and promised that a special investigation force (composed of 50 detectives) will investigate and report on what happened. He added that he did not want the Chechen authorities to be "red faced" before the Chechen and Russian people. To which Putin replied that Kadyrov and his subordinates had nothing to be ashamed of and that they had handled the situation very professionally.
This is yet anther sign of the rebirth of an ancient tradition from the times of Imperial Russia: some groups (Chechens, Cossaks, etc.) are given special freedoms and a quasi-total liberty in how they arrange their daily lives with no intervention from the Center in exchange for a simple thing: they are personally responsible for the security of the Russian border and the clam and safety of the area they control. Kadyrov message to Putin was simple: "sorry, we were responsible for the peace and security in Chechnia and we let that happen". Putin's reply was "you did nothing wrong and you have my fullest political support".
This kind of relations are very hard to understand for westerners, but they are very typical and traditional in the mind and ethos of Russians and the peoples of the Caucasus. For Kadyrov to be trusted with full liberty to administer Chechnia in any way he sees fit (and with full Russian economic and political support) is a great source of personal pride and as soon as he felt that anybody might question his performance he personally took responsibility and directly faced his commander who, upon seeing his personal courage and honor, praised him and publicly assured him of his full support and trust.
The key measure here is this: the Chechens handled the crisis on their own. The (numerous) Russian forces in the area were never called to intervene. If the Russians had been forced to send in their special forces to deal with this attack it would have been a major loss of face for not only Kadyrov, but all the Chechen people who pride themselves on their capability to deal with any threat by themselves. That did not happen and even if the Chechens did suffer the loss of 10 of their officers, these men died in defense of not only their people's lives, but also their pride. In the Caucasus, this matters *a lot* and they will be buried as heroes.
I suppose that for the "progressive" EUpeans this will smack of medieval-style clientelism. Whatever. This is how Russians and Chechens think and this is how they want to live. I would not advise anybody to try to interfere.
The Saker
They did not make any particular demands but one of them managed to upload a video into the social media saying that 1500 combatants had entered the city. The seemed to have freaked out the local authorities enough to launch a city-wide anti-terrorist plan but since no further insurgents were found, it was soon canceled. The building (a printing house, which was empty at night) was surrounded and a firefight ensued at which point the security forces opened up with machine, grenades and anti-tank weapons which set fire to the building but also damaged the nearby market which burned down. The insurgents began taking casualties so they ran to a nearby school but they were intercepted and shot.
All in all, it appears to me that these insurgents acted with a fantastic lack of tactical skills which is very uncharacteristic of Chechen fighters who (whatever side they are on) are usually formidable combatants. The guys who got shot appeared to have been very dangerous but clowns nonetheless, not sophisticated operators. This is definitely good news.
Interestingly, Ramzan Kadyrov publicly apologized to Putin for these events on the day of his address to the Federal Assembly and promised that a special investigation force (composed of 50 detectives) will investigate and report on what happened. He added that he did not want the Chechen authorities to be "red faced" before the Chechen and Russian people. To which Putin replied that Kadyrov and his subordinates had nothing to be ashamed of and that they had handled the situation very professionally.
This is yet anther sign of the rebirth of an ancient tradition from the times of Imperial Russia: some groups (Chechens, Cossaks, etc.) are given special freedoms and a quasi-total liberty in how they arrange their daily lives with no intervention from the Center in exchange for a simple thing: they are personally responsible for the security of the Russian border and the clam and safety of the area they control. Kadyrov message to Putin was simple: "sorry, we were responsible for the peace and security in Chechnia and we let that happen". Putin's reply was "you did nothing wrong and you have my fullest political support".
This kind of relations are very hard to understand for westerners, but they are very typical and traditional in the mind and ethos of Russians and the peoples of the Caucasus. For Kadyrov to be trusted with full liberty to administer Chechnia in any way he sees fit (and with full Russian economic and political support) is a great source of personal pride and as soon as he felt that anybody might question his performance he personally took responsibility and directly faced his commander who, upon seeing his personal courage and honor, praised him and publicly assured him of his full support and trust.
The key measure here is this: the Chechens handled the crisis on their own. The (numerous) Russian forces in the area were never called to intervene. If the Russians had been forced to send in their special forces to deal with this attack it would have been a major loss of face for not only Kadyrov, but all the Chechen people who pride themselves on their capability to deal with any threat by themselves. That did not happen and even if the Chechens did suffer the loss of 10 of their officers, these men died in defense of not only their people's lives, but also their pride. In the Caucasus, this matters *a lot* and they will be buried as heroes.
I suppose that for the "progressive" EUpeans this will smack of medieval-style clientelism. Whatever. This is how Russians and Chechens think and this is how they want to live. I would not advise anybody to try to interfere.
The Saker
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Violent clashes in Grozny
Dear friends,
There is a lot of speculation about what really happened in Grozny in the past hours and some are even suspecting that the US has somehow re-ignited the Wahabi underground for a new insurrection.
This is far from being the case.
What really happened is that one of the major Wahabi terrorist groups which was traveling in three cars was blocked at a checkpoint. The Wahabis opened fire and killed all the cops. However, the alarm was given and special forces were brought in at which point the Wahabis feld into a nearby building. They were surrounded and eventually killed.
This means that at the cost of the lives of 10 dead Chechen police and security officials one of the major Wahabi terrorist organizations as been destroyed.
Furthermore, please keep in mind that modern Chechnia is one of the safest places in Russia. Not only do the Chechen authorities have a very large and sophisticated security apparatus (counter-terrorist/SWAT, counter-intelligence, rapid-reaction, intelligence, etc.) but they have the support of the vast majority of the local population. And should that not be enough, the Federal Authorities have a massive and truly formidable military presence in and around Chechnia. For obvious political reasons the Federals try to keep a low profile and let the Chechens deal with Chechen terrorists, but they are there and they can be instantly activated if needed. The bottom line is that Chechnia is safe and stable.
The situation is much more dangerous in neighboring Daghestan, although it is improving. If the AngloZionists decide to try to re-trigger an insurgency, they are much more likely to try to do that in Dagestan or outside Russia, in Kazakhstan or Tadjikistan (although these two states have also been preparing for any security threats and can count on more or less total Russia support.
Here is some raw footage of the events in Grozny. See for yourself that we are talking about combats around one building. Not all over Grozny.
The Saker
There is a lot of speculation about what really happened in Grozny in the past hours and some are even suspecting that the US has somehow re-ignited the Wahabi underground for a new insurrection.
This is far from being the case.
What really happened is that one of the major Wahabi terrorist groups which was traveling in three cars was blocked at a checkpoint. The Wahabis opened fire and killed all the cops. However, the alarm was given and special forces were brought in at which point the Wahabis feld into a nearby building. They were surrounded and eventually killed.
This means that at the cost of the lives of 10 dead Chechen police and security officials one of the major Wahabi terrorist organizations as been destroyed.
Furthermore, please keep in mind that modern Chechnia is one of the safest places in Russia. Not only do the Chechen authorities have a very large and sophisticated security apparatus (counter-terrorist/SWAT, counter-intelligence, rapid-reaction, intelligence, etc.) but they have the support of the vast majority of the local population. And should that not be enough, the Federal Authorities have a massive and truly formidable military presence in and around Chechnia. For obvious political reasons the Federals try to keep a low profile and let the Chechens deal with Chechen terrorists, but they are there and they can be instantly activated if needed. The bottom line is that Chechnia is safe and stable.
The situation is much more dangerous in neighboring Daghestan, although it is improving. If the AngloZionists decide to try to re-trigger an insurgency, they are much more likely to try to do that in Dagestan or outside Russia, in Kazakhstan or Tadjikistan (although these two states have also been preparing for any security threats and can count on more or less total Russia support.
Here is some raw footage of the events in Grozny. See for yourself that we are talking about combats around one building. Not all over Grozny.
The Saker
Monday, May 26, 2014
The Chechens and Ramzan Kadyrov - reply to a reader
After my recent post about Chechnia and the hope it gives me, one reader posted a particularly interesting comment which, I believe, deserves a full answer. One thing which particularly motivated me to write this more detailed reply rather that a shot comment-reply was that what this reader wrote almost exactly mirrored my own thoughts just a few years ago. So in replying to this reader I have the opportunity to explain why I changed my opinion about Ramzan Kadyrov and the Chechen people today. So let's take the comments of this reader one by one:
1. “Image of Chechnia and Chechens is radically changing in Russia”. In reality, Chechens are being considered what they are – thugs from the mountains, using knives and guns without hesitation after slightest provocation, for example in a restaurant, against usually barehanded adversaries. What is worse, it’s well known that they will get away with it even with blood on their hands. Officials will be bribed or intimidated, so no one will be prosecuted. Even if the case gets to a court – well, persons involved will just go back to Caucasus, where local police will never try to catch them. These guys go through the downtown Moscow in dozens of cars, shooting live ammunition into the air and surrounding vehicles, and again, with impunity. So – there is no change in attitude towards Chechens: they are feared and hated. And since they are really a very small minority the only thing keeping them from being harassed and killed one by one is support from the police, judicial and special services. Sad but true. Google phrases below, if interested. Click images section or youtube if you don’t know Russian: Кавказский автопробег.
Стреляющая свадьба.
There is much truth to what you write. However, what is important here is this: what is Ramzan Kadyrov's stance on the actions of these Chechens? The reply is that he calls such behavior a disgrace for Chechens and that he demands that Chechen behave more courteously and more respectfully than any other ethnic group. He not only says so, he takes action which one famous case illustrates very well. There is this volunteer group in many regions of Russia called "Stop Kham" (stop the rude person") which confronts rude drivers and which glues a big sticker on the front window of cars parked illegally (you can find their videos on YouTube, some with English captions; they are quite fun to watch). One day they confronted a rich and arrogant woman who, as it turned out, was the wife of a senior Chechen official. She got really angry and called up some "body guards aka thugs" and a big fight ensued. When Kadyrov learned about that he immediately dismissed the official. So yes, there is a lot of Chechen thuggery and banditry, but that is not behavior Islam approves (often the Chechens acting this way are drunk) and Kadyrov tries as hard as can be to crack down on such behavior.
2. Media calls Kadyrov hero? That’s because he was awarded with the Golden star (highest Russian decoration) and title of Hero of Russian Federation, move, that caused sheer outrage and disgust in the Russian military. He is also called academic, which is also true. When Kadyrov is called a hero in media, there is /sarc tag in 100% cases. The tag you are probably missing.
Did you watch the latest Вести Недели с Дмитрием Киселевым (Weekly News with Dimitri Kiselev)? He clearly means it when he says that Kadyrov is a hero and, as I am sure you know, Kiselev is arguable the most powerful and influential person in the Russian media right now. As for the Russian military being disgusted with Kadyrov getting the medal of "Hero of Russia" this makes sense: he used to be a Chechen warlord who switched sides after all. But look what he did after that? His father was murdered and he inherited a horrible situation in Chechnia and yet he achieved what was in theory impossible: there are no more terrorist gangs to guerrilla warloards in Chechnia. And look at the key role Chechen security forces have played in their elimination, including the recent one of Doku Umarov. Does that not deserve the title of Hero of Russia? I think that is completely does and any Russian with such achievements would have obtained it.
3. Kadyrov is really playing very important role. He (actually, his father) was chosen to become a rat wolf of a kind. A creature trained to eradicate its fellow rats, i.e. warlords, that failed to strike deal with the Kremlin first. Was that necessary to bring up such creature? The answer is likely “yes”. It was cost-effective solution. But that doesn’t change Kadyrov from what he is, nor it helps to improve attitude towards him. Nothing will help here, i think.
You are making one huge assumption here: that in essence folks like Maskhadov, Dudaev, Umarov, Basaev, Iandarbiev, Raduev, Zakaev or Baraev are of the same nature as Kadyrov. That they are all rats. I totally disagree. The former were thugs and liars, they made a mockery of Islam and they used Wahabi Islam as a cover for their banditry and mobster activities. They were in for the money first and foremost, for power second and for hatred third. These guys were truly vicious rats, the scum of the earth, and they have to be eliminated one by one. I believe that Kadyrov is truly religious and that his goal is categorically different: he is trying to built up a peaceful and prosperous Chechnia and for that he puts his life on the line each day. Can I prove it? No. Can you? No. Neither of us are mind-readers. So it is your deeply held and sincere conviction versus mine. All I can say is that I used to think exactly like you do. Two things made me re-consider: discussions with Chechens and listening to Kadyrov in interviews.
4. After elimination of most rivaling warlords Chechnya is living quite well, thanks to the money they got from the federal state budget. Money, that doesn’t go to other regions, that is. They build great mosques and skyscrapers (skyscrapers, for god’s sake, in a rural area!) at expense of regions of Russia proper. It’s well known, and causes a lot of tensions too.
Is Kadyrov wealthy? Yes. Does a lot of money come from the Federal Center. Yes. So what? Kadyrov is no richer than any other regional leader and pouring money into Chechnia was an absolute necessity to prevent the return to another civil war fueled by criminal gangs. Does Chechnia need great mosques and skyscrapers? First, it is not for us to judge what they want to do in their own country as long as they don't act against Russia. But second yes, I do believe that Chechnia badly needed big mosques and skyscrapers! Why? To restore the badly hurt pride and self-confidence of the people and to give them a sense of hope for the future. In New York they figured that neighborhoods with broken windows and painted tags foster crime. So they decided to fix that and it worked. Same thing for Grozny: these construction are a powerful, visible, signal of what Chechnia wants to become and that is essentially for a city which has almost been leveled to the ground.
One last thing: it would be naive in the extreme to compare Kadyrov to Buddha, Gandhi or Saint Seraphim of Sarov. The main cannot simply press a button and transmute himself into a Sergei Lavrov kind of refined intellectual. Besides, while a person like Lavrov is needed in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, he would not make a good leader in Chechnia. I think that Kadyrov should be compared to another Hero of Russia: General Shamanov who also did a fantastic job in Chechnia, who is equally hated by western "human rights" professionals and who is himself not averse to take some, shall we say, semi-legal actions. These are tough guys, hard has iron, both personally very courageous and both merciless to their enemies. These are folks you do not want to mess with and you definitely want them on your side. But are they both also intensely patriotic and intensely committed to their ideals? I believe so. Of course, just like with Kadyrov, we don't really know what Shamanov really thinks or what he believes in. But I think that this is a fair comparison: Kadyrov and Shamanov. Neither of them will ever become a refined intellectual and both will always remain dangerous predators in their heart. That is exactly the kind of persons Russia needs in the Caucasus today: to keep any wannabe Georgian, Dagestani or Ukrainian enemies of Russia frightened and deter them from taking any hostile action. At least this is my personal conclusion.
Kind regards and many thanks,
The Saker
1. “Image of Chechnia and Chechens is radically changing in Russia”. In reality, Chechens are being considered what they are – thugs from the mountains, using knives and guns without hesitation after slightest provocation, for example in a restaurant, against usually barehanded adversaries. What is worse, it’s well known that they will get away with it even with blood on their hands. Officials will be bribed or intimidated, so no one will be prosecuted. Even if the case gets to a court – well, persons involved will just go back to Caucasus, where local police will never try to catch them. These guys go through the downtown Moscow in dozens of cars, shooting live ammunition into the air and surrounding vehicles, and again, with impunity. So – there is no change in attitude towards Chechens: they are feared and hated. And since they are really a very small minority the only thing keeping them from being harassed and killed one by one is support from the police, judicial and special services. Sad but true. Google phrases below, if interested. Click images section or youtube if you don’t know Russian: Кавказский автопробег.
Стреляющая свадьба.
There is much truth to what you write. However, what is important here is this: what is Ramzan Kadyrov's stance on the actions of these Chechens? The reply is that he calls such behavior a disgrace for Chechens and that he demands that Chechen behave more courteously and more respectfully than any other ethnic group. He not only says so, he takes action which one famous case illustrates very well. There is this volunteer group in many regions of Russia called "Stop Kham" (stop the rude person") which confronts rude drivers and which glues a big sticker on the front window of cars parked illegally (you can find their videos on YouTube, some with English captions; they are quite fun to watch). One day they confronted a rich and arrogant woman who, as it turned out, was the wife of a senior Chechen official. She got really angry and called up some "body guards aka thugs" and a big fight ensued. When Kadyrov learned about that he immediately dismissed the official. So yes, there is a lot of Chechen thuggery and banditry, but that is not behavior Islam approves (often the Chechens acting this way are drunk) and Kadyrov tries as hard as can be to crack down on such behavior.
2. Media calls Kadyrov hero? That’s because he was awarded with the Golden star (highest Russian decoration) and title of Hero of Russian Federation, move, that caused sheer outrage and disgust in the Russian military. He is also called academic, which is also true. When Kadyrov is called a hero in media, there is /sarc tag in 100% cases. The tag you are probably missing.
Did you watch the latest Вести Недели с Дмитрием Киселевым (Weekly News with Dimitri Kiselev)? He clearly means it when he says that Kadyrov is a hero and, as I am sure you know, Kiselev is arguable the most powerful and influential person in the Russian media right now. As for the Russian military being disgusted with Kadyrov getting the medal of "Hero of Russia" this makes sense: he used to be a Chechen warlord who switched sides after all. But look what he did after that? His father was murdered and he inherited a horrible situation in Chechnia and yet he achieved what was in theory impossible: there are no more terrorist gangs to guerrilla warloards in Chechnia. And look at the key role Chechen security forces have played in their elimination, including the recent one of Doku Umarov. Does that not deserve the title of Hero of Russia? I think that is completely does and any Russian with such achievements would have obtained it.
3. Kadyrov is really playing very important role. He (actually, his father) was chosen to become a rat wolf of a kind. A creature trained to eradicate its fellow rats, i.e. warlords, that failed to strike deal with the Kremlin first. Was that necessary to bring up such creature? The answer is likely “yes”. It was cost-effective solution. But that doesn’t change Kadyrov from what he is, nor it helps to improve attitude towards him. Nothing will help here, i think.
You are making one huge assumption here: that in essence folks like Maskhadov, Dudaev, Umarov, Basaev, Iandarbiev, Raduev, Zakaev or Baraev are of the same nature as Kadyrov. That they are all rats. I totally disagree. The former were thugs and liars, they made a mockery of Islam and they used Wahabi Islam as a cover for their banditry and mobster activities. They were in for the money first and foremost, for power second and for hatred third. These guys were truly vicious rats, the scum of the earth, and they have to be eliminated one by one. I believe that Kadyrov is truly religious and that his goal is categorically different: he is trying to built up a peaceful and prosperous Chechnia and for that he puts his life on the line each day. Can I prove it? No. Can you? No. Neither of us are mind-readers. So it is your deeply held and sincere conviction versus mine. All I can say is that I used to think exactly like you do. Two things made me re-consider: discussions with Chechens and listening to Kadyrov in interviews.
4. After elimination of most rivaling warlords Chechnya is living quite well, thanks to the money they got from the federal state budget. Money, that doesn’t go to other regions, that is. They build great mosques and skyscrapers (skyscrapers, for god’s sake, in a rural area!) at expense of regions of Russia proper. It’s well known, and causes a lot of tensions too.
Is Kadyrov wealthy? Yes. Does a lot of money come from the Federal Center. Yes. So what? Kadyrov is no richer than any other regional leader and pouring money into Chechnia was an absolute necessity to prevent the return to another civil war fueled by criminal gangs. Does Chechnia need great mosques and skyscrapers? First, it is not for us to judge what they want to do in their own country as long as they don't act against Russia. But second yes, I do believe that Chechnia badly needed big mosques and skyscrapers! Why? To restore the badly hurt pride and self-confidence of the people and to give them a sense of hope for the future. In New York they figured that neighborhoods with broken windows and painted tags foster crime. So they decided to fix that and it worked. Same thing for Grozny: these construction are a powerful, visible, signal of what Chechnia wants to become and that is essentially for a city which has almost been leveled to the ground.
One last thing: it would be naive in the extreme to compare Kadyrov to Buddha, Gandhi or Saint Seraphim of Sarov. The main cannot simply press a button and transmute himself into a Sergei Lavrov kind of refined intellectual. Besides, while a person like Lavrov is needed in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, he would not make a good leader in Chechnia. I think that Kadyrov should be compared to another Hero of Russia: General Shamanov who also did a fantastic job in Chechnia, who is equally hated by western "human rights" professionals and who is himself not averse to take some, shall we say, semi-legal actions. These are tough guys, hard has iron, both personally very courageous and both merciless to their enemies. These are folks you do not want to mess with and you definitely want them on your side. But are they both also intensely patriotic and intensely committed to their ideals? I believe so. Of course, just like with Kadyrov, we don't really know what Shamanov really thinks or what he believes in. But I think that this is a fair comparison: Kadyrov and Shamanov. Neither of them will ever become a refined intellectual and both will always remain dangerous predators in their heart. That is exactly the kind of persons Russia needs in the Caucasus today: to keep any wannabe Georgian, Dagestani or Ukrainian enemies of Russia frightened and deter them from taking any hostile action. At least this is my personal conclusion.
Kind regards and many thanks,
The Saker
Russia, Chechnia and the Ukraine - the *choice* to keep hoping for the impossible
As you probably know, the two Russian journalists who worked for the LifeNews, Oleg Sidyakin and Marat Saichenko, were finally freed and brought back home via Grozny in Chechnia. You might even have heard that the President of Chechnia, Ramzan Kadyrov, played a special role in their liberation. I think that the importance of this event might be under-estimated by many observers and I want to briefly comment on that.
It all really began in Crimea where, before the operation of the Russian Polite Armed Men in Green (PAMG), when there were some very serious tensions between the various parties including the Muslim Tatars. At that time, Ramzan Kadyrov for the first time made a statement from faraway Grozny saying that he will not tolerate any "abuses against the Chechen" minority in Crimea. Since there are not all that many Chechens in Crimea and since soon thereafter PAMG solved the problem anyway, this statement was rapidly forgotten. But think again, besides being a statement in support of the Chechens in Crimea, who was that statement directed against? Clearly, the threatened party was not the pro-Russian one, but the pro-Ukrainian forces, including those Tatars (mainly linked to Turkey) who had been manipulated by the USA to take action against the pro-Russian population of Crimea. It is now clear that what happened in this instance is that Kadyrov did openly say that which Putin could not (for obvious political reasons). In the end, it was Putin who eventually engaged his PAMG, but it was Kadyrov who had made the threat.
This time again, Kadyrov got involved by issuing an amazing statement which most commentators overlooked. Here is what he said about the two kidnapped reporters:
During 4 days of secret negotiations a group of Chechen negotiators sent by Kadyrov flew to Kiev in his personal jet and had some very frank conversations with the right people in Kiev. The Chechens probably used the typical mix of threats and bribes to prevail and, as a direct result of this operation, the two reporters were freed.
What is very interesting, is that there is mounting evidence that Putin was involved all along even though he never said a word about it. First, it is well know that Putin is personally very close to Kadyrov and that a strong friendship binds these two men who have immense respect for each other. But now we can also make sense of a comment made by Putin who declared that the kidnapped journalists were kept in a "zindan" (a prison hole in the ground), something which he apparently learned through Kadyrov's people in Kiev. Finally, one has to know Kadrov's quasi obsession in stressing at every step that he is always acting exclusively with the full support of the Kremlin to completely exclude the possibility of a unilateral action on Kadyrov's side.
This time again, Kadyrov said that which Putin could not say.
It was also interesting for me to hear the testimony of the two reporters who told that they understood that something dramatic had changed in their condition when they heard a voice pick up the phone and say "salaam aleikum". Soon thereafter their handcuffs were taken off and they were told "take off the hood off your heads, you are safe now, you are under the protection of the President of Chechnia".
Why do I consider this so important?
Because the image of Chechnia and the Chechens is radically changing in Russia. The media openly calls Kadyrov a hero and Russian citizens rejoice when they hear the Islamic "salaam aleikum" because they know that they are now safe. This is huge! What a change from only 10 years ago.
Kadyrov in reality plays a role which is a much bigger one than "just" the President of Chechnia (and a hugely successful one at that!). He is clearly Putin's "ally number 1", especially in security matters, and the two men clearly work closely together as a kind of "tag team". This kind of special role does a lot to restore the pride of the Chechen people and it also does a lot to change the terrible image many Russians had of Chechens as a result of the horrors of the time when Chechnia was ruled by psychopathic Wahabis. Instead of being "terrorist barbarians" the Chechens are now increasingly seen as tough and reliable allies of Russia and of the Russian President.
As for the Chechens, they are still feared, but this time outside Russia. During the 08.08.08 war the Georgians ran as fast as they could as soon as they heard that the Chechen battalion had arrived. Nowadays, the Ukraine is full of rumors that Chechens have arrived to support the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. To my knowlege this has not happened (yet?) and apparently there is some confusion between a "Vostok battalion" (Eastern battalion) in the Ukraine and the Chechen "Vostok battalion" which saw action in 08.08.08. The former is composed of local volunteers from the Donbass while the latter is now formally part of the 291st Motor-Rifle regiment of the 42nd Guard Motor-Rifle Division of the Russian armed forces. But I would not put it past Kadyrov to send in Chechen special forces as "volunteers" into the Donbass if things get really ugly there. Of course, the key thing would be to get Putin's go ahead for such a move.
I find that absolutely remarkable. By 2000 Chechnia was in ruins, a huge amount of Chechens had been killed, Grozny was was completely destroyed and plans were made to abandon the city and build a new capital elsewhere. Almost all western experts were unanimous in their conclusion that the guerrilla war and terrorism operations would never stop and that Chechnia would become a "constantly bleeding wound in the soft underbelly of Russia" or some equally stupid cliche. Now, 14 years later, Grozny is a superb city, traditional Islam has completely replaced Wahabism, Chechen terrorists and warlords have all been eliminated one by one, Chechnia has a very low crime rate, French actor Gerard Depardieu has an apartment in downtown Grozny, Russians increasingly see Chechens as their toughest and most dependable allies and the enemies of Russia literally tremble in fear at the possibility that "the Chechens might come". Who could have ever imagined that?!
Will that be enough to heal the wounds of the past?
I don't know for sure, but I fervently hope so. For one thing I will always blame the regime of Eltsin and his Jewish oligarchs more than Dudaev and his Chechen followers for the first Chechen war. True, what the Chechens did during and after that war was simply beyond barbaric and I fully supported the 2nd Chechen war in which Russia simply did what had to be done (and did so brilliantly). So I believe that both sides share the guilt and the pain of what happened. Still, Russia is so much bigger and more powerful that the Chechens who had no chance as soon as the Russian people supported the military action (which was not the case in the first Chechen war) and I believe that Akhmad Kadyrov had the wisdom to see that this war would end up in the quasi-total elimination of the Chechen people and that it had to be stopped. I think that Putin also understood this and that he believed that such an outcome would also be a disaster for Russia. So these two men did the unthinkable and stopped a war which was about to turn into a total war until one side would wipe out the other. It is as easy for me to write these terrible words as it is for you to read them. But think about it, we are truly talking about an unspeakable horror which almost happened. And the murder of Akhmad Kadyrov could have made this outcome inevitable had it not been for his son Ramzan who replaced his father and did an absolutely brilliant job to make his dream come true: Chechnia today is both Islamic and free. It has a huge degree of autonomy, but it also is the most faithful and strongest ally of the Russian President. I would even say that Chechnia is the single most important factor of stability in the entire Caucasus region.
I am under no illusion about the possibility of a "Ukrainian Kadyrov" appearing on the world scene anytime soon. But if such a miracle could happen in Chechnia, I want to at least hope that it is possible in a future Ukraine, one freed from oligarchs and Nazis as much as Chechnia is now Wahabi-free.
Hope dies last and this is a hope I simply want to keep in my heart, no matter how naive it might seem to the "realists" out there. I don't want to believe that a "Banderastan" can survive in what is a Christian holy land for which literally millions of people died to keep in Orthodox and free. Right now the picture out of the Ukraine is a terrible one. But Chechnia in 2000 was even worse. So I will keep hoping.
The Saker
It all really began in Crimea where, before the operation of the Russian Polite Armed Men in Green (PAMG), when there were some very serious tensions between the various parties including the Muslim Tatars. At that time, Ramzan Kadyrov for the first time made a statement from faraway Grozny saying that he will not tolerate any "abuses against the Chechen" minority in Crimea. Since there are not all that many Chechens in Crimea and since soon thereafter PAMG solved the problem anyway, this statement was rapidly forgotten. But think again, besides being a statement in support of the Chechens in Crimea, who was that statement directed against? Clearly, the threatened party was not the pro-Russian one, but the pro-Ukrainian forces, including those Tatars (mainly linked to Turkey) who had been manipulated by the USA to take action against the pro-Russian population of Crimea. It is now clear that what happened in this instance is that Kadyrov did openly say that which Putin could not (for obvious political reasons). In the end, it was Putin who eventually engaged his PAMG, but it was Kadyrov who had made the threat.
This time again, Kadyrov got involved by issuing an amazing statement which most commentators overlooked. Here is what he said about the two kidnapped reporters:
The Ukraine's leadership continues to use Fascist methods. We demand the immediate release of Sidyakin and Saychenko. If the folks in Kiev don't come back to their senses and do not let these journalists go back home, we will not stand by in silence and watch as mock them, for them to their knees and keep them with bags on their heads. We have the forces and the capabilities to influence those who are holding these journalists in captivity. I therefore advise them to free these journalists or otherwise we will have resort to some tough actions.I don't know about you, but when I read that I went "wow!". There is a Chechen President (who is also and-ex warlord) who is clearly giving the Ukies an ultimatum which they better not ignore. They didn't.
During 4 days of secret negotiations a group of Chechen negotiators sent by Kadyrov flew to Kiev in his personal jet and had some very frank conversations with the right people in Kiev. The Chechens probably used the typical mix of threats and bribes to prevail and, as a direct result of this operation, the two reporters were freed.
What is very interesting, is that there is mounting evidence that Putin was involved all along even though he never said a word about it. First, it is well know that Putin is personally very close to Kadyrov and that a strong friendship binds these two men who have immense respect for each other. But now we can also make sense of a comment made by Putin who declared that the kidnapped journalists were kept in a "zindan" (a prison hole in the ground), something which he apparently learned through Kadyrov's people in Kiev. Finally, one has to know Kadrov's quasi obsession in stressing at every step that he is always acting exclusively with the full support of the Kremlin to completely exclude the possibility of a unilateral action on Kadyrov's side.
This time again, Kadyrov said that which Putin could not say.
It was also interesting for me to hear the testimony of the two reporters who told that they understood that something dramatic had changed in their condition when they heard a voice pick up the phone and say "salaam aleikum". Soon thereafter their handcuffs were taken off and they were told "take off the hood off your heads, you are safe now, you are under the protection of the President of Chechnia".
Why do I consider this so important?
Because the image of Chechnia and the Chechens is radically changing in Russia. The media openly calls Kadyrov a hero and Russian citizens rejoice when they hear the Islamic "salaam aleikum" because they know that they are now safe. This is huge! What a change from only 10 years ago.
Kadyrov in reality plays a role which is a much bigger one than "just" the President of Chechnia (and a hugely successful one at that!). He is clearly Putin's "ally number 1", especially in security matters, and the two men clearly work closely together as a kind of "tag team". This kind of special role does a lot to restore the pride of the Chechen people and it also does a lot to change the terrible image many Russians had of Chechens as a result of the horrors of the time when Chechnia was ruled by psychopathic Wahabis. Instead of being "terrorist barbarians" the Chechens are now increasingly seen as tough and reliable allies of Russia and of the Russian President.
As for the Chechens, they are still feared, but this time outside Russia. During the 08.08.08 war the Georgians ran as fast as they could as soon as they heard that the Chechen battalion had arrived. Nowadays, the Ukraine is full of rumors that Chechens have arrived to support the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. To my knowlege this has not happened (yet?) and apparently there is some confusion between a "Vostok battalion" (Eastern battalion) in the Ukraine and the Chechen "Vostok battalion" which saw action in 08.08.08. The former is composed of local volunteers from the Donbass while the latter is now formally part of the 291st Motor-Rifle regiment of the 42nd Guard Motor-Rifle Division of the Russian armed forces. But I would not put it past Kadyrov to send in Chechen special forces as "volunteers" into the Donbass if things get really ugly there. Of course, the key thing would be to get Putin's go ahead for such a move.
I find that absolutely remarkable. By 2000 Chechnia was in ruins, a huge amount of Chechens had been killed, Grozny was was completely destroyed and plans were made to abandon the city and build a new capital elsewhere. Almost all western experts were unanimous in their conclusion that the guerrilla war and terrorism operations would never stop and that Chechnia would become a "constantly bleeding wound in the soft underbelly of Russia" or some equally stupid cliche. Now, 14 years later, Grozny is a superb city, traditional Islam has completely replaced Wahabism, Chechen terrorists and warlords have all been eliminated one by one, Chechnia has a very low crime rate, French actor Gerard Depardieu has an apartment in downtown Grozny, Russians increasingly see Chechens as their toughest and most dependable allies and the enemies of Russia literally tremble in fear at the possibility that "the Chechens might come". Who could have ever imagined that?!
Will that be enough to heal the wounds of the past?
I don't know for sure, but I fervently hope so. For one thing I will always blame the regime of Eltsin and his Jewish oligarchs more than Dudaev and his Chechen followers for the first Chechen war. True, what the Chechens did during and after that war was simply beyond barbaric and I fully supported the 2nd Chechen war in which Russia simply did what had to be done (and did so brilliantly). So I believe that both sides share the guilt and the pain of what happened. Still, Russia is so much bigger and more powerful that the Chechens who had no chance as soon as the Russian people supported the military action (which was not the case in the first Chechen war) and I believe that Akhmad Kadyrov had the wisdom to see that this war would end up in the quasi-total elimination of the Chechen people and that it had to be stopped. I think that Putin also understood this and that he believed that such an outcome would also be a disaster for Russia. So these two men did the unthinkable and stopped a war which was about to turn into a total war until one side would wipe out the other. It is as easy for me to write these terrible words as it is for you to read them. But think about it, we are truly talking about an unspeakable horror which almost happened. And the murder of Akhmad Kadyrov could have made this outcome inevitable had it not been for his son Ramzan who replaced his father and did an absolutely brilliant job to make his dream come true: Chechnia today is both Islamic and free. It has a huge degree of autonomy, but it also is the most faithful and strongest ally of the Russian President. I would even say that Chechnia is the single most important factor of stability in the entire Caucasus region.
I am under no illusion about the possibility of a "Ukrainian Kadyrov" appearing on the world scene anytime soon. But if such a miracle could happen in Chechnia, I want to at least hope that it is possible in a future Ukraine, one freed from oligarchs and Nazis as much as Chechnia is now Wahabi-free.
Hope dies last and this is a hope I simply want to keep in my heart, no matter how naive it might seem to the "realists" out there. I don't want to believe that a "Banderastan" can survive in what is a Christian holy land for which literally millions of people died to keep in Orthodox and free. Right now the picture out of the Ukraine is a terrible one. But Chechnia in 2000 was even worse. So I will keep hoping.
The Saker
Sunday, June 9, 2013
Russian and Chechen activists stand side by side to denounce the murder of Ibragim Todashev by the FBI
Today I am posting the video of a most interesting press conference which took place in Moscow and which was made possible thanks to the support of the Russian news agency RIA-Novosti. This press conference brought together the father of Ibragim Todashev (murdered by FBI agents in Orlando), Abdulbaki Todashev, Saurbek Sadakhanov, a Chechen lawyer, and Kheda Saratova, an independent Chechen researcher. The main organizer of this press-conference was Maksim Shevchenko, a well-known Russian Orthodox activist and journalist.
I am very sorry that I do not have a subtitled or translated version of this press conference, and I apologize for the fact that I simply do not have the time do such a translation by myself. I will, however, summarize the main thesis mentioned by the participants to this press-conference: Chechens in the USA are now treated as terrorists simply for being Chechens. Ibragim Todashev, in particular, had absolutely nothing to do with the Boston Bombing. His only "crime" was that a) he was a Chechen b) he was a Muslim c) he spoke to the Tsarnaev brothers when he met them.
All the participants agree that Ibragim Todashev was murdered with even a "control shot" fired at the back of his head.
What is most interesting is that even though the 2nd Chechen war is only 10 years away from us, Russians and Chechens are really now standing side by side against a common enemy. The main organizer of this event, Maksim Shevchenko, is a very well known Russian Orthodox activist, a person very well known for his anti-liberal (i.e. anti-Western) views. He is also one of the most pro-Muslim Russian activists in Russia who is even often accused of being a "hidden Muslim" himself for his pro-Muslim views. This is, of course, utter nonsense. Shevchenko is 100% Orthodox in his religious views, but that does not prevent him from strongly believing that traditional Islam is a natural ally of Russia in its struggle to main its national identity.
What is currently happening in Russia is this: Russian Orthodox Christians and Chechen Muslims are joining forces against the forces which have tried so hard to oppose them against each other.
Seeing Russians and Chechens patriots standing side by side me a great deal of consolation and hope.
The Saker
I am very sorry that I do not have a subtitled or translated version of this press conference, and I apologize for the fact that I simply do not have the time do such a translation by myself. I will, however, summarize the main thesis mentioned by the participants to this press-conference: Chechens in the USA are now treated as terrorists simply for being Chechens. Ibragim Todashev, in particular, had absolutely nothing to do with the Boston Bombing. His only "crime" was that a) he was a Chechen b) he was a Muslim c) he spoke to the Tsarnaev brothers when he met them.
All the participants agree that Ibragim Todashev was murdered with even a "control shot" fired at the back of his head.
What is most interesting is that even though the 2nd Chechen war is only 10 years away from us, Russians and Chechens are really now standing side by side against a common enemy. The main organizer of this event, Maksim Shevchenko, is a very well known Russian Orthodox activist, a person very well known for his anti-liberal (i.e. anti-Western) views. He is also one of the most pro-Muslim Russian activists in Russia who is even often accused of being a "hidden Muslim" himself for his pro-Muslim views. This is, of course, utter nonsense. Shevchenko is 100% Orthodox in his religious views, but that does not prevent him from strongly believing that traditional Islam is a natural ally of Russia in its struggle to main its national identity.
What is currently happening in Russia is this: Russian Orthodox Christians and Chechen Muslims are joining forces against the forces which have tried so hard to oppose them against each other.
Seeing Russians and Chechens patriots standing side by side me a great deal of consolation and hope.
The Saker
Sunday, May 5, 2013
The recent Israeli air strikes are a clear sign that the US/NATO/al-Qaeda/Israeli war against Syria is now entering into a qualitatively new phase
The latest Israeli airstrikes are now the clear proof that the US/NATO/al-Qaeda insurgency is currently losing the war against Syria. I submit that the purpose of these strikes is rather obvious: to trigger a Syrian response which would give Israel a pretext to wage what Pepe Escobar aptly called a "mini shock and awe" campaign against Syria, tipping the balance in favor of the US/NATO/al-Qaeda insurgency. Here is how that plan would play out:
If the Syrians reply by shooting a number of missiles at Israel, the Israelis will then claim "self-defense" and hit key government installations, command and control nodes, ammunition dumps, command centers, air bases, etc all as part of their "legitimate right of self defense" (nevermind that Israel is already clearly guilty of undeniable acts of war and aggression). If needed, the Israelis could also initiate an air campaign aimed at restricting the mobility of Syrian troops and armor (by claiming that anything moving on a Syrian road is a "convoy of terror weapons destined to Hezbollah" or something equally predictable).
If the Syrians refrain from any retaliation, then these airstrikes would at least give the Israelis a sense of satisfaction: having failed to take on the Big Guy (Iran) they at least had the "guts" to attack Syria. This is not a pleasant option - believe me, I wish to see the Israelis pay for what they did as much as the next guy - but it is absolutely imperative for Assad not to fall into this trap. He needs to stay put and ride out the Israeli attacks.
The sad reality is that Syria is in no position to confront Israel militarily while at the same time fighting a US/NATO/al-Qaeda insurgency.
I have said it many many many times over on this blog, the way to defeat US/Israeli style air force or cruise missile attacks is not to shoot down their aircraft or to retaliate with your own strikes, but to deny them a lucrative target. This is what the Serbs did to perfection in Bosnia, and this is what Hezbollah did to perfection in Lebanon.
If the Syrians learned the lessons from the Hezbollah victory against Israel during the "Divine Victory" war, then their military should be ready to fight in a very decentralized manner, their means of communications should be extremely redundant, and their forces dispersed in a way to deny the Israelis a lucrative target. Of course, such a posture has the disadvantage of dramatically reducing the mobility of the Syrian army, in particular at the operational level, but as long as most of the war effort is carried by tactical subunits this should not be too much of a handicap.
Also, unless the Syrians respond and fire back the Israelis will not have a pretext to do much more than what they are doing right now: provoking. Their provocations are extremely offensive and morally repugnant, but they are much preferable to a real Israeli close air support campaign which the Israelis could launch in support of the US/NATO/al-Qaeda insurgency with thousands of sorties.
The Israeli involvement also have a beneficial side effect: it goes to prove a very simple but fundamental thesis: anybody supporting the Syrian insurgency is a "useful idiot" who, whether he understands that or nor, supports the US Empire, NATO, al-Qaeda and the Zionists. Yes, if you support the "FSA" you are in bed with Netanyahu.
What the Syrians need to do now is press on their advantage on the ground. If possible, they should deny the US/NATO/al-Qaeda coalition the possibility of using any part of the Syrian territory as a conduit to bring in more weapons. This can be best done by sending in numerous special forces groups inside"FSA" controlled territory to disrupt their operations and strike at their forces.
Just as the Russian only defeated the Chechen insurgency when the Russian commanders convinced the Kremlin of the importance of sending Spetsnaz forces deep inside the forests and mountains of Chechnia, the Syrians will only defeat this insurgency if they deny the Wahabis any type sanctuary.
This type of operation are very counter-intuitive for regular army officers who are used to think in terms of "fronts" or "terrain held" and who loathe the idea of sending a tiny force deep behind enemy lines. And yet, these tactics are crucial to deny the insurgency the big advantage that it enjoys when engaging regular forces: in a typical "insurgency versus regular forces" the insurgents always have the initiative, they choose when and where to engage, and they can withdraw to areas in which regular forces either cannot penetrate, or can only do that at a huge cost. Only autonomous special forces have the training needed to turn the tables on the insurgency and hunt it down in its own lairs.
In Chechnia the insurgency mistakenly believed that it was invulnerable to Russian attacks in the forests covered hills and mountains. However, instead of sending big bulky and very vulnerable armored forces into these mountains the Russians covertly send numerous Spetsnaz units deep inside these forests and mountains. These units attacked the Chechens mostly at night, usually destroying their hidden camps and weapons caches. Such night raids created a sense of panic amongst the Chechen insurgents who had never expected to be attacked deep inside "their own" territory. They tried to flee to Georgia and other neighboring republics only to be blocked by covertly inserted Russian Airborne troops. In a relatively short time the insurgency was crushed.
Something similar needs to happen in Syria now. The Syrian military must absolutely deny the "FSA" any kind of "safe territory". Furthermore, by sending in special forces teams they deny the Israelis the option to engage in close air support: special forces teams are undetectable and their strikes are too short and too devastating to call in close air support. By multiplying such "hit and run" operations the Syrian military could capitalize on its recent more conventional successes.
I don't know if the Syrian military does have the type of units needed to conduct such operations, but if not I am sure that Iran and Russia can send enough qualified advisers to provide them with the basic training to prepare and execute such a campaign.
The Israeli aggression against Syria is a clear sign that the war is now entering into a qualitatively new phase. The Syrian armed forces have proven that they had what it take to very skillfully adapt to a conflict which turned out to be very different from the one they had trained for, and I hope that they will now again show the flexibility and skills needed to adapt to this new phase which will be decided by the correct use of special operation forces.
The Saker
If the Syrians reply by shooting a number of missiles at Israel, the Israelis will then claim "self-defense" and hit key government installations, command and control nodes, ammunition dumps, command centers, air bases, etc all as part of their "legitimate right of self defense" (nevermind that Israel is already clearly guilty of undeniable acts of war and aggression). If needed, the Israelis could also initiate an air campaign aimed at restricting the mobility of Syrian troops and armor (by claiming that anything moving on a Syrian road is a "convoy of terror weapons destined to Hezbollah" or something equally predictable).
If the Syrians refrain from any retaliation, then these airstrikes would at least give the Israelis a sense of satisfaction: having failed to take on the Big Guy (Iran) they at least had the "guts" to attack Syria. This is not a pleasant option - believe me, I wish to see the Israelis pay for what they did as much as the next guy - but it is absolutely imperative for Assad not to fall into this trap. He needs to stay put and ride out the Israeli attacks.
The sad reality is that Syria is in no position to confront Israel militarily while at the same time fighting a US/NATO/al-Qaeda insurgency.
I have said it many many many times over on this blog, the way to defeat US/Israeli style air force or cruise missile attacks is not to shoot down their aircraft or to retaliate with your own strikes, but to deny them a lucrative target. This is what the Serbs did to perfection in Bosnia, and this is what Hezbollah did to perfection in Lebanon.
If the Syrians learned the lessons from the Hezbollah victory against Israel during the "Divine Victory" war, then their military should be ready to fight in a very decentralized manner, their means of communications should be extremely redundant, and their forces dispersed in a way to deny the Israelis a lucrative target. Of course, such a posture has the disadvantage of dramatically reducing the mobility of the Syrian army, in particular at the operational level, but as long as most of the war effort is carried by tactical subunits this should not be too much of a handicap.
Also, unless the Syrians respond and fire back the Israelis will not have a pretext to do much more than what they are doing right now: provoking. Their provocations are extremely offensive and morally repugnant, but they are much preferable to a real Israeli close air support campaign which the Israelis could launch in support of the US/NATO/al-Qaeda insurgency with thousands of sorties.
The Israeli involvement also have a beneficial side effect: it goes to prove a very simple but fundamental thesis: anybody supporting the Syrian insurgency is a "useful idiot" who, whether he understands that or nor, supports the US Empire, NATO, al-Qaeda and the Zionists. Yes, if you support the "FSA" you are in bed with Netanyahu.
What the Syrians need to do now is press on their advantage on the ground. If possible, they should deny the US/NATO/al-Qaeda coalition the possibility of using any part of the Syrian territory as a conduit to bring in more weapons. This can be best done by sending in numerous special forces groups inside"FSA" controlled territory to disrupt their operations and strike at their forces.
Just as the Russian only defeated the Chechen insurgency when the Russian commanders convinced the Kremlin of the importance of sending Spetsnaz forces deep inside the forests and mountains of Chechnia, the Syrians will only defeat this insurgency if they deny the Wahabis any type sanctuary.
This type of operation are very counter-intuitive for regular army officers who are used to think in terms of "fronts" or "terrain held" and who loathe the idea of sending a tiny force deep behind enemy lines. And yet, these tactics are crucial to deny the insurgency the big advantage that it enjoys when engaging regular forces: in a typical "insurgency versus regular forces" the insurgents always have the initiative, they choose when and where to engage, and they can withdraw to areas in which regular forces either cannot penetrate, or can only do that at a huge cost. Only autonomous special forces have the training needed to turn the tables on the insurgency and hunt it down in its own lairs.
 |
| Spetsnaz GRU in the mountains of Chechnia |
Something similar needs to happen in Syria now. The Syrian military must absolutely deny the "FSA" any kind of "safe territory". Furthermore, by sending in special forces teams they deny the Israelis the option to engage in close air support: special forces teams are undetectable and their strikes are too short and too devastating to call in close air support. By multiplying such "hit and run" operations the Syrian military could capitalize on its recent more conventional successes.
I don't know if the Syrian military does have the type of units needed to conduct such operations, but if not I am sure that Iran and Russia can send enough qualified advisers to provide them with the basic training to prepare and execute such a campaign.
The Israeli aggression against Syria is a clear sign that the war is now entering into a qualitatively new phase. The Syrian armed forces have proven that they had what it take to very skillfully adapt to a conflict which turned out to be very different from the one they had trained for, and I hope that they will now again show the flexibility and skills needed to adapt to this new phase which will be decided by the correct use of special operation forces.
The Saker
Saturday, April 20, 2013
Chechnya: Republic of Contrasts (very interesting RT Documentary)
Meet the modern Chechnia willed by Vladimir Putin and Ramzan Kadyrov:
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
The Caucasus, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Hezbollah and an appeal to my Muslim readers
Back from my short trip I want to share with you a hodge-podge of observations and thoughts. Let's begin by the Caucasus.
Two things are happening simultaneously in Chechnia, Dagestan: Wahabi insurgents have embarked on a systematic campaign of terror against non-Wahabi Muslim clerics and scholars. This is happening against a background of major losses for the Wahabi insurgency whose leaders are being killed by the Russian security forces one by one. It appears that the Wahabis are realizing that their insurgency has no chance of success and that they are lashing out against those whom they perceive as "traitors" and "collaborators", in particular in the ranks of the Islamic clergy and scholars. This confrontation between the Wahabi insurgency and the local Muslims is rooted in the historical fact that the type of Islam the Wahabis advocate has no historical roots in the region. Historically, the type of Islam practiced in the Caucasus is a mix of moderate Sunni Islam heavily laced in with pre-Islamic tribal traditions, Sufism and modern secular influences. Sadly, many local Muslim clerics and scholars did not take enough security measures to protect themselves and they paid the price for presenting an easy, "soft", target. I can only hope that the local Muslim communities will now realize the full extend of the threat against it and take the same type of protection measures government officials and security force commanders have taken. The skills to do so are available locally so all is needed is a political decision to do so.
I am sad to say that from what I can see the Muslim community worldwide is still studiously looking away from the Caucasus and not paying any attention to the plight of its fellow-Muslims there. When Muslims were killed by Russian "kuffar" the Muslim world was vocal in its touching sympathy and support for the Chechen and Dagestani people (regardless of the immense list of atrocities committed against everybody by the insurgents!). Now that it is quite clear that these very same Muslims are being terrorized by Saudi-backed Wahabis, the Muslims suddenly find themselves looking elsewhere. I find that very discouraging.
Libya. Predictably, NATO is now going fully into the so-called "widening" phase of its Bosnia/Kosovo-like campaign against Libya: its destroying more and more of the socio-economic infrastructure of the country. When I watch the images of the bombs falling on Tripoli I always flash back on the bombs being dropped on Belgrade. In those tragic days I was amongst the few who were trying to sound the alarm about the fact that the breaking of international law by the US Empire in its war against Serbia and Montenegro over Kosovo was setting a precedent and would have terrible repercussions later. I was telling my Muslim friends, "hate the Serbs all you want (if you have to), but realize that sooner or later you will be on the receiving end of these very same policies". But just as in Chechnia, the Muslim world was mostly steered up into an anti-Serb frenzy (carefully induced by the US propaganda machine) and almost nobody seemed capable of thinking more than just one step ahead of the "stop the genocide! stop the genocide!" hysteria. We now know that no "genocide" took place in either Bosnia or Kosovo (or Chechnia, for that matter), but it's too late now. Bosnia and Kosovo have turned into the black hole of Europe: with a mix of abject poverty, corruption, mafia thuggery, Wahabi Islamists and US military personnel overseeing it all. Welcome to the New World Order folks! In Chechnia, Russia finally pushed back, but at a terrible price not only for Russian, but even more, so for the Chechen people. What will now happen with Libya?
Frankly, I don't know. My feeling is that Gaddafi is no Milosevic. Oh, by the way, if I remember correctly: was Gaddafi not the ONLY Muslim leader who oppose the NATO war in Bosnia and Kosovo? I am not sure of that, but I think I recall that he did see through the propaganda.
Anyway - Gaddafi must know and understand what NATO has in store for him and his country: a cell in the Hague for him and his sons, and a Kosovo-like enslavement of Libya. When I hear that he wants to fight to death I tend to believe him. More importantly, as far as I know the Libyan population is highly educated and probably understands what is going on. As for the resistance, which I supported initially, it must come to realize that it has been hijacked, co-opted and manipulated and find the courage to do exactly what Akhmad Kadyrov and so many other Chechen leaders did when they realize that they were being used by the US Empire: break-off its alliance with CIA/MI6 controlled puppets, choose "country over politics" and find some arrangement with Gaddafi who has made innumerable offers of peace, negotiations and democratic elections. This will be tough, of course, and I sympathize with the plight of those who loathe Gaddafi himself (as I personally do), but what is at stake now is the very survival of Libya as an independent country. Furthermore, for all the bad things that Gaddafi has done, he has also done quite a few things right and all these socio-economic achievements will turn into dust if the international bankers and Zionists get their teeth deep int the Libyan economy, which they will if their newly acquired CIA/MI6 puppets ever seize power.
Yet again, the Muslim world appears to be studiously looking away from these painful realities. Are they afraid of the almighty USA? Or do they feel duped as they were in Kosovo and simply cannot fess up to it? Or do they hate Gadaffi more than they love Libya? I frankly don't know, but I notice that even Hezbollah, to my great sadness, has nothing to say about all this (more about Hezbollah's strange silences below)
Egypt. The military junta running Egypt has committed the "crime of crimes", at least in my opinion. It has re-closed the Rafah border. Check out this exclusive report by DemocracyNow!:
I find that totally sickening and I can only hope and pray that the Egyptian people will rise again to stop this abomination.
By the way, there is something which the opposition could already do to help. It could declare that it has begun making lists of the names of all government officials (military, police, border guard, ministries, etc.) who in any way have collaborated with this obscene policy of betrayal of the Palestinian people of Gaza and that as soon as when the opposition comes to power these officials will all be charged with treason and tried in court. Such a threat could go a long towards dampening the zeal of the many folks involved in the implementation of this policy.
Sadly, besides the outraged people of Gaza, the Muslim world seems to be strangely silent on this topic also. Again, I do not understand why.
Syria now. This will be my first post about Syria. I did not post about the situation there until now not because of any strong political leanings of mine, but simply because I did not feel that I understood what is going on there. I still don't understand, by the way, but I feel that there are a few things which I would like to share with you.
First, I have no way of knowing whether the majority of the Syrian population support Assad's regime or not. Unlike Iran, Syria did not have an election, and there is no way to know whether the opposition or the regime have a democratic legitimacy. What we do know is that the Syrian regime under Hafez al-Assad did crush popular uprising with extreme violence several times in the past. Assad Jr. is probably as ruthless has his father. Besides, I also personally loathe Assad junior, Bashir, whom I always saw as a covert collaborator of Israel and the United States (on whose behalf he tortured "rendered" suspects!) and whom I strongly suspect of being involved in the murder of Imad Mugniyeh (as does Mugniyeh's widow, I would add). But when I see the very same forces which are attempting to conquer Libya throwing their support behind the anti-Assad insurgency it gives me pause. Folks like Eltsin, Milosevic, Saddam, Gaddafi or Assad are loathsome and brutal dictators, no doubt, but I simply do not believe that replacing them with a NATO Viceroy is making things better. There is "bad" and there is "worse" and "worse" is often a lot worse than "bad". Or, to loosely paraphrase Hegel, quantitative changes can eventually result in qualitative changes. Why is it that some many political figures and otherwise astute observers stubbornly refuse to see that?
Which brings me to Hezbollah.
For a self-professed "Hezbollah groupie" and "Nasrallah fanboy" like myself it is rather painful to have to admit that I am becoming frustrated, if not disappointed, with Hezbollah. Why?
First, Hezbollah had absolutely nothing to say about the alleged (and probably fictional) murder of Osama Bin-Laden in Pakistan.
Second, Hezbollah is not sounding the alarm about the USraelian Empire's successful attempt to co-opt and control the (initially spontaneous and legitimate) opposition to Gaddafi.
Third, Hezbollah is also remaining mostly silent or, even worse, supportive of the Assad regime in Syria.
Of course, I understand the political reasons for all this. In the first case, Hezbollah does not want to alienate Sunnis, in the second case Hezbollah still remembers the kidnapping and murder of Musa al-Sadr by Gaddafi, and in the third case Hezbollah feels that it cannot come out against a regime whom it largely, but not exclusively, depends on for weapons and support. But are these ethically valid reasons or are these considerations of petty politics?
My secular readers will not understand this, but I hold religious leaders to a far higher standard than their secular counterparts. If I am not mistaken, Hassan Nasrallah's clerical title is Hojatoleslam (also transcribed as Hujjat al-Islam from Arabic), meaning the "proof of Islam". In other words, Hassan Nasrallah is a "proof of the surrender to God". Can any person - in particular a Shia cleric - upon whom such a noble title is bestowed really choose to remain silent out of petty political considerations?
I hope that I am not offending my fellow "Hezbollah groupies" and "Nasrallah fanboys" or, more seriously, my Shia readers. But I have to call it the way I see it and Hezbollah's heavy silence baffles, frustrates and disappoints me.
If I am wrong, which I would readily admit, please tell me why.
All I can say in my defense is that this is my personal blog. Not only because I control it, but because I share my personal feelings, doubts, fears, frustrations, with the rest of you here. This blog is not the antiseptic, polished and always politically correct editorial page for a corporate newspaper.
So I will say it frankly here: I am deeply disturbed and disappointed by the seeming inability of so many Muslim leaders to speak up and dare to say a very unpopular truth (sometimes even in a personal correspondence).
All the evil in this world is based on two ingredients: violence and lies. And the latter is far more important than the former. In the past I have already vented my frustration and disappointments with Muslims when they resort to what I call a knee-jerk "my Ummah, right or wrong" kind of reaction to a far more complex and nuanced reality. But we are not talking about wars between Muslims and kuffar here, we are talking about tragedies which are taking place very much inside the Ummah, and yet even Hezbollah is silent, all its attention focused on Bahrain (which, no doubt, fully deserves that attention, but not exclusively).
So I would like to directly address my Muslim readers here and ask: can you explain what is going on here? What am I missing? Are you personally comfortable with the deafening silence which bothers me - an Orthodox Christian - so much?
The Saker
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Possible signs of real changes in the Russian security and elite military forces
One of the more exotic technologies for tracking deeply submerged submarines consists of using a satellite based radar to measure the tiny elevation of the water surface of the ocean above an otherwise well hidden and silently moving submarine. Some less exotic techniques including detecting wakes, tiny differences in water temperatures, magnetic fluctuations and many other "indirect" methods. What I propose to do today is something similar: to try to look at some possible signals of what might be happening hidden deep inside the Russian security establishment.
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| Doku Umarov |
As some of you might have recalled, I have regularly covered what I saw as a government campaign to defund, "reform" (read: shut down) and otherwise weaken the Russian elite military forces. A Spetsnaz brigade was dismantled, the military intelligence service (GRU) was almost reduced to a Department of the General Staff, the 106th Airborne Division came close to being simply eliminated, and a number of top officers were either rather "mysteriously died" or resigned. Things got totally out of control when the Airborne Forces almost officially demanded the sacking of Defense Minister Serdyukov.
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| Magomedali Vagabov |
And then things suddenly seemed to cool down, and an eerie silence covered this entire "front". There are now some signs that things have actually begun to change.
First, the Russian security services have embarked on a major campaign to capture or eliminate the leaders of the Wahabi underground in the Caucasus.
Even before the bombing of the Domodedovo airport in Moscow several top leaders of the Wahabi underground in the Caucasus (such as Magometali Vagabov) were killed in the course of several special operations. Following the Domodedovo bombing (which was officially claimed by the self-styled "First Emir of the Emirate of the Caucasus" Doku Umarov) the campaign to track
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| Abdullah Kurd |
down and kill the Wahabi leaders suddenly intensified and achieved major successes. Many top officials of the Wahabi insurgency were killed including "Moganned" (a Saudi national), "Abdullah Kurd" (a Turkish national), Israpil Validjanov, Asker Djapuev and even Astemir Mimishev - the assassin of the Mufti of the Kabardino-Balkar Republic. All of them were killed in the time period between April and May of this year.
The one still not caught, although his death has been announced many times only to be proven wrong is Doku Umarov himself. Umarov, arguably the very last "historical" leader of the Chechen insurgency alive, has skillfully managed to escape many times from some very close calls, but there is no doubt in my mind that the noose around him is now extremely tight and that he will be killed very soon.
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| Asker Djapuev |
As for the insurgency itself, it is reduced to two basic types of operations: high visibility "symbolic" terrorist attacks such as the one in Domodedovo or small, local level, assassinations of junior policemen and murders of "collaborators". The single best indicator of the real capabilities of the insurgency is that it is handled only by Ministry of Internal Affairs forces and not by the military (the exception being, of course, the killing of top level commanders which is typically a join effort of the FSB and the GRU with logistical support from local police forces).
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| Astemir Mamishev |
Bottom line: the insurgency has been defeated, most of its leaders are dead, and the scope and nature of Wahabi terrorism in the Caucasus and south Russia has been brought down to something similar to what the IRA was in the years preceding the Good Friday Agreement.
Of course, there is a Presidential election coming up in Russia and Medvedev has been challenged for many of his policies (betrayal of Iran, his "reforms" of the military, Russia's vote in the UN on Libya and many others) and, just like Obama, he needs to market himself as a "strong leader". This is particularly true considering that Prime Minister Putin is far more popular than Medvedev.
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| Moganned |
There are also signs that Medvedev is openly courting elite Russian military forces. First, there was the absolutely unprecedented move to award the Order of Kutuzov to the 45th Independent Special Operations Airbore Regiment as a whole (rather than to one individual). Not only that, but this year the 45th Independent Special Operations Airborne Regiment was invited to the Victory Parade on Red Square.
Something even more amazing happened on the same day: for the first time ever the traditionally super-secret GRU Spetsnaz forces were also represented during the Victory Day lead by a Spetsnaz Colonel who was identified by name (!). Considering the fact that Spetsnaz GRU forces are still normally
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| Israpil Validzhanov |
under order never to even show their faces, having them participate in a parade transmitted worldwide is an absolutely amazing, I would say earth-shattering, departure from the usual practice.
Medvedev also showed his support for the Special Forces of the Internal Ministry during a visit to the HQ of the "Rys'" Spetsnaz unit which included a lengthy conversation with the officers of this elite unit.
Clearly Medvedev is going out of his way to make all the political moves needed to show his support for the previously neglected security forces. His efforts actually go beyond the symbolic.
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| Spetsnaz GRU sniper in Ossetia |
The 106th Guard Airborne division has recently received a lot of high tech gear including UAVs, reconnaissance vehicles and ATV, top of the line night vision gear, encryption communications, advanced computerized command and control networks, etc. A division which was almost disbanded is now receiving lavish care from the Kremlin.
Of course, this could all be a short lived, one-time, effort in order to achieve some political gains. But this might also signal that Medvedev has finally accepted the fact that he cannot indefinitely oppose the security establishment and that a typically Russian backstage deal was made between the Kremlin and the security and key military forces. I am inclined to believe that the latter is true.
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| 45 Airborne Spetsnaz on Victory Day |
Whatever may be the case, this is clearly good news for Russia in general and for the Caucasus in particular. After two decades of absolute horror and chaos, there is a least a non-irrelevant possibility that some normalization and recovery might take place. The combined action of the security forces and the Kremlin's campaign to support non-Wahabi Islam are slowly bringing about some results. What is now needed is another double struggle: to bring in economic growth to the Caucasus and a merciless crackdown at the local corruption which is absolutely horrendous, even by Russian standards.
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| Spetsnaz "Rys'" officer |
Medvedev has embarked on a massive campaign to fight corruption in Russia. This campaign is centered on two mains tracks: a massive overhaul of the hideously corrupt and incompetent police force combined with an equally ferocious crackdown on corrupt government officials. The faces of sacked police generals are now paraded on TV on an almost daily basis and the Kremlin is using the crafty pretext of a "re-attestation" of *all* the Internal Ministry official (from the rank and file to the very top commanders) to sack anybody who is perceived as corrupt or incompetent. The Russian public in understandably viewing all this with a lot of skepticism, or even cynicism, and only time will show if all these efforts are for real or not. The key test, in my opinion, will be if the Kremlin will be willing (and able) crackdown on the all-powerful Mafia and gangs of thugs which have prospered in the Caucasus for many decades.
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| Spetsnaz GRU Col. Tkachuk on Victory Day |
The problem of the Wahabi insurgency cannot be separated from the problem of the south Russian mob - the two are twin brothers, closely linked at many levels. For example, one of the reasons why only central "elite" Spetsnaz forces have been able to eliminate so many Wahabi leaders is not that such operations require an amazing amount of military skills, but simply because the central Spetsnaz forces have no connections to the local mob or the local police (which, for all practical purposes is one and the same).
This is an ambitious multi-tired program for sure, but one which is vital for the stability and security of all of Russia. If it takes a looming Presidential election to finally make it happen, then this is a good thing.
The Saker
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Interesting statement from Russian President Medvedev
Russian President Medvedev has just made an unannounced visit to the National Anti-Terrorist Committee meeting in the North Ossetian city of Vladikavkaz. He made a number of interesting, if very debatable comments.
a) President Medvedev began by saying that what is now taking place in the Arab world is a "scenario which was first attempted in Russia but which was defeated".
b) He described the situation in the Arab world as "extremely serious" and he said that major difficulties lie ahead. According to him, there is a real risk of a "disintegration into small fragments of large, highly populated countries".
c) He said that very serious developments are likely including, quote, the accession to power by "fanatics". That, according to Medvedev, would results in "fires for decades and a dissemination of extremism". He repeated that this was the "scenario" which "they" (unnamed) were "preparing for" Russia and he added that now "they" (unnamed) would re-double the efforts to realize it in Russia.
d) Medvedev adamantly restated that "this scenario will not happen here" but he also added that "everything which happens there will have a direct impact on our situation". He added that this is a long term issue which Russia will have to tackle for "many decades".
e) Medvedev then proceeded to declare that "it is quite obvious that nobody besides us can restore order in this situation". The plan to respond to this situation would, according to Medvedev, include all the following components:
- A merciless destruction of any caught terrorists; according to Medvedev, "these degenerates show no mercy to women and children and we shall show them no mercy either".
- A systematic effort to prevent and preempt terrorist attacks before they occur.
- A multi-sectoral effort to revive and expand the economies of the Caucasus.
- A expansion of social programs.
- The creation of many workplaces
- The development of educational programs
- A maximal support for indigenous Islam
He added that "he who is willing to change should get a chance to do so but the one who seeks blood will drawn in his own blood; no other approaches are possible".
First, when I listened to him I though "there he goes again, parroting the Israeli-US line", but then I reconsidered. I think that a lot was *not* said in this statement, but that we could try to make some educated guesses about what this statement was all about. Here is my take on it:
First, it appears Medvedev is clearly supporting the Israeli-US position on the situation in the Arab world. But then, what does he mean when he says that "they" attested to realize this "scenario" in Russia and that "they" will try again.
One interpretation is that the Arab revolutions are all directed by the CIA, MI6, Mossad, George Soros, the Bilderbergers, etc. I really do not believe that this is what he means. The other interpretation is that the aforementioned organizations will attempt to *use* the events in the Arab world to re-start wars in the Caucasus. Now that is a FAR more likely explanation (just remember the recent DoS "tweets" in Farsi to try to re-ignite Iran and you will see what I mean).
If I am correct in my interpretation, then this is the very first time that I see an admission from Medvedev that what happened in the North Caucasus was indeed a massive destabilization plan organized and executed by Western interests via such Jewish oligarchs like Berezovsky and crackpot mass murders like Dudaev, Maskhadov & Co. Yes, he does not name names, but the "they" he refers to is rather clear to any Russian.
The second element which I find interesting is Medvedev's prediction that "fanatic" elements might come to power. I do not think that he refers to secular or Buddhist "fanatics", so the only conclusion is that he is referring to Wahabi extremists (they are often referred to as "fanatics" in Russia). But why does he say that? Tunisia is far from being a Wahabi-influenced country, the Egyptian revolution had a very strong secular component and the Egyption MB does not at all look like a "Wahabi" movement, in Bahrain a central force against the regime is Shia, while in Yemen is predominantly Shafi'i and Shia while the regime is totally dependent on Saudi Arabia. I am frankly confused as to how Medvedev can come to the conclusion that Wahabis can come to power in these states. Does he refer to Libya?!
Then, he speaks of the disintegration of a "large and highly populated" country/countries. Since Yemen or Bahrain are neither large nor highly populated, is he hinting that Tunisia, Egypt, or Libya are going to fall apart?
Medvedev is not Reagan. He is an intelligent man and he gets the very best intelligence and analysis one can imagine. So what is this all about? Is he just trying to scare the Russian audience by hinting that the breakup of some yet undefined major and highly populated country would serve as trigger for a a similar development in the Caucasus or even Russia? Or is there much more to this. Remember the apparently equally strange declaration by Prime Minister Putin about the bombing in Domodedovo not being linked the Chechnia? Clearly, both Medvedev and Putin are referring to some non Chechen "they" who is trying to destabilize Russia. I wonder whom they are really referring to...
Lastly, I have to say that I am reassured to see that Medvedev seems to realize the need for the Federal government to carefully balance a merciless extermination of foreign-controlled Wahabi crazies with a simultaneous support for indigenous Islam in Russia. I just hope that he means more than than just to build a huge mosque in Grozny and in Saint Petersburg, and that this program will include the promotion and financing the forms of Islam traditional to the Caucasus and the rest of Russia.
As I have already written in the past, I strongly believe that the real solution to the crisis in the Caucasus can only come from the Muslim world. Sadly, I do realize that 99.99999% of Muslims are still stuck into a deceptive myth combining a narrative about "Muslims always being the victims" with a blind "my umma - right or wrong" attitude. Yet, I do also know that this is not true of a majority of Muslims living in Russia. They all saw bloodbath which the Chechen "Islamic Peacekeeping Brigade" created in Dagestan during its aborted invasion in the hope of creating an "Islamic Caliphate" in the Caucasus. Russian Muslims are also quite aware of the regular terrorist attacks which continue nowadays. So while many of them will be very critical of the Kremlin and will be often disgusted and outraged by some of the gross human rights violations committed by Federal forces in Chechnia, I believe that they know that Wahabism is the main cause of all these horrors. Bottom line: the Kremlin needs to support Islam in Russia but without attempting to control or use it. This is a difficult balance which I do not believe has been achieved yet.
Anyway, I think that these statement by Medvedev are intriguing and interesting and that while I might not agree with this take on the evens in the Arab world, it is well worth taking it into consideration.
The Saker
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