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Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Will the Muslim world ever show enough courage to deal with the Chechen insurgents?

"Emir Dokku Abu Usman"
According to the BBC, the self-styled "Emir of the Caucasus Emirate" and former "President of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria" Doku Umarov (aka "Emir Dokku Abu Usman") has declared in reference to the bombing of the Domodedovo airport in Moscow that ""This special operation was carried out on my orders and, God willing, special operations like it will continue to be carried out".  Fair enough - if he wants to claim credit for it, let him have it regardless of whether he and his crazed thugs are really behind it.

I wrote "if" because I simply do not believe that Putin strange statement that this blast was not linked to Chechnia was a mistake or a lie.  Putin is not Reagan, and he is fully aware of what he says.  I have no explanation for the apparent contradictions here, but that does not really matter.

What matters is that the Chechen insurgency's position on terrorism is what the French call "persist and sign" (persiste et signe) which refers to the stubborn insistence to pursuing a course of action which is clearly risky if not outright wrong.

The Chechen insurgency began in terror and barbarity, it continued in terror and barbarity, and it still proudly clings to terror and barbarity.  This, of course, will remain a problem for Russia, but most of all, it will remain a absolute disaster for the Chechen people who, if they ever want to actually achieve anything, need to "clean house" themselves because the Russians will never be able to do that for them.  But the Chechen society will apparently will not do so.

This is my big beef with the Chechens.  Not their desire for independence.  Actually, as claims for a historical right for independence go, the Chechen one was, in comparison to many others made in the former USSR, one of the most historically credible ones: unlike other peoples in the Caucasus, the Chechens have always resisted the Russian Empire, and while all the big cities in the Chechen plains were built by Russian Cossacks (including Grozny), the mountainous regions of Chechnia have always belonged to the Chechen nation.  Simply put - the Russian presence in Chechnia has no other explanation then Russian imperialism and the Chechen desire for independence can only be considered as natural and just.

No, the reason why I feel no sympathy at all for the Chechens is that from day one of their independence movement, they managed to be lead by truly evil thugs, cynical and bloodthirsty gang leaders with no sense of even basic human decency, truly the most vile and abject kind of human garbage ever produced by the Soviet society.  All the Chechen leaders, and I do mean *all* of them, were truly monsters and yet the Chechen society naively thought that it could be lead by such people and not reap the consequences.  Not only that, but for several years a very large part of the Chechen population actually enjoyed the orgy of lawlessness and violence that overtook Chechnia.  Initially the victims were mostly ethnic Russians (and especially the Cossacks which the Chechens always feared and hated).  But soon enough the lawlessness turned all of Chechnia into what can only be called a "black hole".  Eventually, of course, the Chechens reaped what they had themselves sown.

I know for a fact of  many times when Russian military commanders, when confronted by Chechen crowds complaining about the destruction of their villages by the Russian military, replied: "Look, I am from Siberia and I miss my home.  I hate this place and I would leave as soon as possible if I did not have to clean up the mess that you created.  Where were you when many thousands people were kidnapped, murdered, tortured on video and in public squares, raped, when slaves were sold on open markets in central Grozny, when hundereds of innocents were held in zindans and when bandits were running your republic?  It is because of you - the so-called 'innocent Chechens' - that I am here and that my men will have to eliminate all the thugs and murderers which you allowed to prosper and flourish in your society.  If you could not clean your own mess, then shut up and don't complain if we do it now!".

And you know what? I fully agree with that.

Yes, a lot of innocent Chechens died, and a lot of innocent Chechens lost their dwellings.  But at the core - it's their own fault.  Call it karma if you want, or call it historical justice, but a society is responsible for the consequences of letting crazed murders rule it.  This is fundamentally true of the Germans before and during WWII, and it is true for the Chechens today.

And yes, when finally in 2000 the Russian re-took Chechnia, and this time for real, they did come with deep sense of rage and repulsion for their Chechen enemies.  But what did the Chechens expect - to be softly arrested by Geneva Conventions reading Swiss cops?  More then anything else, the Russians were deeply disgusted by the Chechens and they mostly felt little or no pity for them.

Judging by the latest statement of the "Emir of the Caucasus Emirate" the Chechen insurgents have not learned a thing.  They seem to seriously believe that they can beat back the Russian kuffar with terror attacks.  They have already attacked maternity hospitals, movie theaters, aircraft, music concerts, trains, parades and now an airport.  And I predict that they will continue to do so in the future and no amount of counter-terrorist measures will be able to stop them.  But all they will achieve is an even stronger resolve on the Russian side to crush them down to the very last one if needed.  This is not about independence, not about politics and not about oil or geography.  This is about "exterminating the louse" (гниду уничтожить) as the Russian expressions goes, it's about not letting the SOBs get away with murder, literally.

As far as the current official leader of Chechnia goes, Ramzan Kadyrov, most Russians have little love for the guy.  He is a former insurgent himself whose father changed sides when he felt the wind turn.  And he is also very much a typical Chechen thug.  But as the Russians see it, let the Chechens clean as much of their own hell-hole as they can.  Russia will send them money, and will keep an eye on them.  And if the Chechens cannot take care of business - then the most battle hardened, best trained and, now, best equipped Russian military units will be back, really fast, to take care of any situation getting out of control.

I personally believe that the vast majority of Russians would be quite happy to let Chechnia go to hell, provided all the Chechens currently residing in Russia are also kicked out and a huge and impenetrable wall is built around the Russian-Chechen border so that none of these guy could never ever come back.  But Russians also know that this is a fantasy which will never happen.  So the next "least bad" solution is to let the Chechens sort out their own mess as much as possible and, if they cannot, to have an iron fist ready to strike as fast and hard as needed.

This is one of those situation where neither victory nor peace is possible.  Of course, Doku Umarov will sooner or later be killed by the FSB or the GRU (like all his predecessors and all of the original insurgency leaders).  But there are enough wannabe "Emirs of the Caucasus Emirate" left in Chechnia to have him replaced really fast.  And they will be killed too.  One after the another, for as long as it takes.  This is, of course, a bad solution, but that is the only possible strategy and tactic for Russia - the Chechens leave Russia absolutely no other choice, regardless of who is in power in the Kremlin.

Let me conclude here by saying that Russia too has a big responsibility for what happened in Chechnia.  It was Eltsin and his "democrats" who armed Dudaev and his militias to the teeth, it was Eltsin and his "democrats" who send billions of Rubles to Chechnia and it was Eltin and his democrats who sent untrained recruits to die in Grozny and who stopped the Russian military not once, but twice when it was about to crush the insurgency.  The entire clique of Jewish bankers and Russian 'democrats' who ran Russia for almost a decade played a key role in letting Chechnia become a black hole.  And the Russian society, just like the Chechen one, is morally responsible for letting itself be ruled by such immoral and incompetent oligarchs.  And the Russian society has, I believe, also paid a terrible price for its own passivity and lack of backbone.  But the Russians, at least, did clean up their own mess, and with the exception of a few die-hard pro-Western "democrats", nobody in Russia has anything but disgust and hatred for the rulers of the "democratic" regime in power between 1991-2000.  In fact, in the latest elections not a single "democratic" party got the minimum amount of votes to even be represented by even one Deputy in the Duma.

But what do the Chechens think about Dudaev, Maskhadov, Iandarbiev, Basaev, Raduev, Baraev, Udugov, Khattab and the rest of them?  Just take a look at their "official" website Kavkaz Center.  They are all honored there as "martyrs for God", as shahids (!), who died in a just and noble cause.  And the folks at Kavkaz Center are sadly not alone, a great part of the Muslim world still remains absolutely unable to think outside a reflexive, knee-jerk  "my country - wrong or right" paradigm, just transposed to religion ("my umma - right or wrong").  Add to this the narrative that Muslims are always the persecuted victims and you will have the elements of a collective blindness which will only serve to make things worse.

Ever since some Brits were decapitated by Chechen crazies, the West has toned down its criticism of Russia, at least somewhat.  Besides, NATO now needs Russia if it wants to resupply its troops in Afghanistan.  As for the Muslim countries, most of them probably start realizing - at least in private - that the Chechen insurgents are at least as bad as the worst al-Qaeda types who are more than willing to kill any Muslim who happens to disagree with them.  But as long as bloodthirsty buffoons like Doku Umarov are not completely denounced, condemned and rejected by the international Muslim umma, the situation in Chechnia will remain unchanged, unsolved and untenable.

The solution to this conflict can only come from the Muslim world.  Sadly, I do not believe that it is capable of taking on such a role.  At the very least then, I hope that it will then follow the less-than-heroic stance of the West and at least abstain from criticizing Russia which has no other option than to deal with this issue in the only manner it can.

The Saker

19 comments:

Lysander said...

For the Muslim world at large, Chechnya is barely a blip. Yes, I'm sure jihadists head on over there. And yes if you asked a typical Muslim about it, he would instinctively side with the Chechens. But that's about it. It doesn't occupy much thought or energy and no activism at all is directed toward it.

And the fact is the only countries standing up to the west, Iran and Syria along with Hizbullah, obviously cannot afford to alienate Russia, and so wouldn't help the Chechens even if they were inclined to.

One empire at a time :-)

Don't know if Iran is in a position to help Russia in Chechnya. If it is, it should do so AFTER it has received something of equal value in return.

Lysander said...

PS,

I think Saudi Arabia probably helps fund Chechen rebels, but clearly that is NOT out of any sense of Muslim solidarity. It's to ingratiate itself with American neocons who haven't heard that the cold war is over. For them, anything they can use to stick it to the Russians is good.

Anonymous said...

Dear Saker,

Thanks for this analysis. You're spot on as usual.
Kadyrov is like Walid Jumblatt it seems...always sniffing the winds of change...

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@Lysander: And yes if you asked a typical Muslim about it, he would instinctively side with the Chechens

Indeed, and that is a disgrace a a cause for shame for all Muslims, I would submit.

One empire at a time

Like France, Spain and England, Russia is now only a "former Empire" - just another country with an imperial past and a very unimperial present

Don't know if Iran is in a position to help Russia in Chechnya. If it is, it should do so AFTER it has received something of equal value in return.

Sadly, I can only agree with you. Iran, which of all Muslim countries has had the least pro-insurgent inclinations, has been back-stabbed by Medvedev and his clique and has absolutely no reasons to show the Russians any kindness at all. Here I lay the blame totally on Russia.

I think Saudi Arabia probably helps fund Chechen rebels, but clearly that is NOT out of any sense of Muslim solidarity. It's to ingratiate itself with American neocons

I totally agree.

I guess I am less disillusioned by the actions of Muslim governments than with what I see as the inexcusable "my umma - right or wrong" of all too many Muslims.

Anonymous said...

Lysander,
You're correct in your description of the situation about Chechnya...but that doesn't mean that the Arabo-Muslim world is right to ignore the whole case...The inertia of the Arabo-Muslim world is not a good sign at all...and thank God that the people have rejected this blind-sided approach to problem-solving and have rebelled en masse...against the statu-quo...

jack said...

@Lysander

For the Muslim world at large, Chechnya is barely a blip. Yes, I'm sure jihadists head on over there. And yes if you asked a typical Muslim about it, he would instinctively side with the Chechens. But that's about it. It doesn't occupy much thought or energy and no activism at all is directed toward it.

What absolute BULLSHIT!

Chechnya is at the forefront with all the terror attacks in Europe and the US being diverted who Muslim countries, media, western intelligence and mainstream Muslim organisations have invested billions in supported Chechen lead terrorism in Russia.

Since 79 Afghan war we have pushed a policy of supported Muslim militants to dismember and destabilise Russia starting in the North Caucasus.
What do you think the war in Bosnia and Kosovo was about?

Most of the propaganda stories seem to be lifted from the Balkan against the Serbs including the ever changing death toll which in the aftermath of the Beslan massacre was routinely reported at an impossible 250,000 even citied in Channel 4’s interview with Basayeav in 2005 to now over 100,000 which be sheer coincidence is the same numbers cited as being killed in the Bosnian war and the mass rape myth.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3267683.stm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnian_War

@VINEYARDSAKER:

I will go over your points later but as for Chechen historic right for independence

a) They never a country or any form of government

b) They were mercenaries for the British and Ottoman Turks to advance and conquer the Caucasus who have always represented a foreign power

c) They were the aggressors first long before Russia under Catherine the Great conquered the region constantly raiding Russian land in the South and capturing slaves including women for the Ottoman sex slave industry.

I am not sure of this but I think they were also involved in a practice were they would kidnap children are forcible raise them as Muslims. I forgot what the actual name for this practice was called.

As for Yeltsin it does not matter really if he propped up the as Jewish organised crime and Chechen mafia were moving there assets with help of western intelligence and foreign states and arms dealers in the Russian military they secured were pouring billions into Grozny.

Simple fact is the Chechens wanted a war just like the regime in Bosnia they got one.

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@jack: What absolute BULLSHIT!

If you are unable to show basic courtesy to another post I suggest that you refrain from posting.

They never a country or any form of government

That is neither quite true, not relevant in the least. Kurds, Latvians and Palestinians also spent most of their time under foreign occupation yet that hardly gives anybody the right to occupy their lands. You kind of logic would justify the invasion of most of Africa and most of the northern American continent.

They were mercenaries for the British and Ottoman Turks to advance and conquer the Caucasus who have always represented a foreign power

I never said that they were nice people. I said that Chechnia is not a historically Russian territory.

They were the aggressors first long before Russia under Catherine the Great conquered the region constantly raiding Russian land in the South and capturing slaves including women for the Ottoman sex slave industry.

Oh come on! What kind of logic is that?! ALL of Russia's neighbors were - at one time or another - aggressors and invaders of Russia! That is hardly a sensible reason, much less so a license given in eternity, to invade them back. By that logic, Russia should now invade Lithuania, Britain, Poland, Sweden, Germany, France, Turkey, Japan and Mongolia. I mean really, not even Zhirinovski proposes such nonsense (-: he just wants to nuke Japan, a much more modest objective :-)

Simple fact is the Chechens wanted a war just like the regime in Bosnia they got one.

Here I very much disagree. I happen to know for a fact that most Bosnian-Muslims did not want a war. Yes, their leaders did, but most simple folks in Bosnia were both horrified and terrified by the turn of events. I know, you think that "all Muslims are the same", but in reality I assure you that you cannot compare the Bosnian-Muslims and the Chechens or, if you do, you would have to conclude that their circumstances were very different.

No, if I had to compare somebody to the Chechen in the Balkans, I would compare them to the Kosovo Albanians, but even they never reached the levels of bestial brutality that were common practice in the "Independent Republic of Ichkeria".

Yeah, I know, I won't convince you of anything. It's just that you post such outlandish stuff that I feel like trying to wake you up. But yeah, I am wasting my time here, I know...

Robert said...

I don't see how Russia gets out of this one. Recognising Chechen independence is politically difficult because of all the sacrifices made by the Russian army and all the civilians murdered by terrorist atrocities in Russia itself. Any Russian leader who tried it would be accused of appeasement by nationalists and no doubt many in the army and security services. The other danger is that it would set a precedent for other federal subjects with large non Russian ethnic populations to try it on. In the Nineties there was a very real fear that Russia would break up.

It's a great pity that Chechnya was only a Autonomous SSR under the Soviets and not a fully fledged Soviet republic. Then it would have presumably got its independence back in 1991 and we'd have been spared all this grief.

I'm tempted to say Chechya deserves its own independent state and then they can experience the joys of life under the Ichkerian regime.

There is however a counter argument that ultimately only the Chechen people can sort Chechnya out and they are less likely to do so while under foreign occupation which enables the bandits to pose as patriots and justify their repression

Carlo said...

"I don't see how Russia gets out of this one. Recognising Chechen independence is politically difficult because of all the sacrifices made by the Russian army and all the civilians murdered by terrorist atrocities in Russia itself."
That is not the main problem. Russia almost recognized Chechnya as an independent country in 1996, took away all their troops, and for what? In early 1999, the Chechens blew up residential buildings in Russia and invaded the neighbour (and then peaceful) republic of Daghestan. I very much agree with Saker: the Chechen "separatists" are crazy fanatics, and giving independence for them is useless, this won't stop their violence and brutality.

jack said...

OK I screwed up my first comment.

I meant to say:

Chechnya is at the forefront Muslim/jihadist theatre of combat with all the terror attacks in Europe and the US being diverted from foreign Chechen terrorist network/pipeline and affiliated groups who Muslim countries, media, western intelligence and mainstream Muslim organisations have invested billions in supported Chechen lead terrorism in Russia.

If you are unable to show basic courtesy to another post I suggest that you refrain from posting.

Sorry.

But this statement that Chechnya have little to no foreign support and backing is constantly made by terror "experts" and the mass media and it is a big fat lie completely contradictory to the facts.

It is basically the propaganda line that the Chechen conflict is about nationalism and the issue of foreign terrorist connections and support is not an issue and that NATO intervention in Chechnya will resolve everything.

Oh come on! What kind of logic is that?!

But these countries/people have not consistently been aggressive to the present day that seek colonial expansion on behalf of a foreign country and are part of a fascist pan Turkish political movement.

There is no Latvian, German, Polish, etc organised crime networks in Russia historically at least to the degree of the Chechens using there new found criminal state as a parasitic haven for there criminal enterprise.

I happen to know for a fact that most Bosnian-Muslims did not want a war.

I am talking about the leadership of the Bosnian and Chechen regime not the average citizen who would obviously not want a war.

but in reality I assure you that you cannot compare the Bosnian-Muslims and the Chechens or, if you do, you would have to conclude that their circumstances were very different.

I make the comparison to the Bosnians because Chechen jihadist groups constituted the largest foreign element starting in 91 according to the Wall Street Journal Europe.

The actually politics of how the situations develop in Bosnia and Chechnya is of little significance as western powers were engineering and got war in both regions Yugoslavia targeted in the mid 80’s under the Reagan administration with jihadists moving there assets to the Balkans in the late 80’s.

The Bosnian war was nothing more than a large scale urban warfare training camp and a recruiting ground for various criminal and jihadist groups so they can create a terrorist network linking Mid East and European jihadists as a hub/transit point for militants to fight in Chechnya.

As I said before the exact same people, groups and organisations and even the same propaganda of those involved in the Bosnian war are involved in Chechnya.

Yeah, I know, I won't convince you of anything. It's just that you post such outlandish stuff that I feel like trying to wake you up. But yeah, I am wasting my time here, I know...

This from the person who thinks that terrorism in Russia is not motivated and supported by Islamic ideology and teachings.

I actually do the research including US own court cases indictment of organisations and groups operating in Chechnya.

jack said...

@Robert

It's a great pity that Chechnya was only a Autonomous SSR under the Soviets and not a fully fledged Soviet republic. Then it would have presumably got its independence back in 1991 and we'd have been spared all this grief.

It would not have changed anything in fact it would have made the situation worse where they would have been given a free hand to operate and destabilise the North Caucasus just like they did in Afghanistan and do in Azerbaijan, Turkey, London, Bosnia and Georgia.

I'm tempted to say Chechya deserves its own independent state and then they can experience the joys of life under the Ichkerian regime.

It was given it twice and look how that turned out.

There is however a counter argument that ultimately only the Chechen people can sort Chechnya out and they are less likely to do so while under foreign occupation which enables the bandits to pose as patriots and justify their repression

Yes this is the line Washington, media pundits and Chechen apologist’s use.

The only problem is when they got virtual independence in 97 the first thing they did is go to London and establish a billion dollar oil development contracts and establishment of MI6 terrorist front organisations in Chechnya and from 97-99 established contacts with the Taliban, KLA, etc starting a mass program of expansion training Chechens and other Muslims in terrorist training camps to prepare for a second war when all the pieces were in place.

jack said...

@Carlo

They did a lot more than that during the 97-99 period that would warrant an invasion.

People are going to say that the apartment bombings were a FSB false flag attack (I think like others it was Berezovsky and his elements within Russian intelligence) promoted by Berezovsky but in reality that had little effect and war was going tom happen anyway.

Basayeav and Khattab’s invasion of Dagestan that had no real strategic significance other than to get a Russian counter response just like the KLA against Serb forces and the Maskhadov regimes refusal to even condemn the attack and let Basayeav and Khattab return to Grozny guaranteed there would be a second war.

Anonymous said...

"One empire at a time"

Yes indeed. So time for Syria, Iran, and Turkey will come too.

Zerkes

jack said...

DNA confirms that the suicide bomber is 20 year old Magomed Yevolyev from Ingushetia.

http://retwa.com/home.cfm?articleDate=9Feb2011

Has anyone notice the comparison to Russia how the Serbs were portrayed in the 90’s.

If you want to go back even further a good comparison can be made of western support of Marxist terrorism and the anti-Russian campaign back then.

Chechen terrorist and extremists would not have been able to have a steady stream of financial support and recruitment if it were not for various US and British pro-Chechen and anti-Russian organisations who finance and promote Chechen propaganda like NED, Jamestown and Heritage foundation.

Heritage foundation is launching a new anti-Russian campaign against Russia supporting the vassal state in Georgia which the Jamestown foundation is already active in like promoting and supporting Hidden Nations, Enduring Crimes conference promoting ethnic and national hatred against Russia. .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Circassian_Genocide_conference_in_Tbilisi

A new anti-Russian campaign is currently underway in the Caucasus. Washington will help Tbilisi convince the world that it is exactly Russia that is to blame for the Georgia-Abkhazia and the Georgia-South Ossetia conflicts. Tackling this problem will be the American Heritage Foundation, which became known for its bellicose stand in the Cold War times.

Theres reason to believe that this will be a large-scale information-propaganda campaign. Later this year the American Heritage Foundation plans to hold a number of conferences in the USA and to approve prizes for scientific research and for filming documentaries about Russias role in inciting conflicts, and also about the situation of refugees in Georgia. The American mission will spread to the citizens of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well. Therere plans to set up non-governmental organizations, and also anti-Russian blogger and student groups. The foundation activists plan to attract well-known politicians and public figures from Georgia and the USA, in order to step up the work of all these organizations.


http://www.network54.com/Forum/84302/thread/1297276046/last-1297282527/Americans+in+Georgia-+Cold+War+Heritage

Anonymous said...

Saker, check this. I think you will like it:

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/02/data-intelligence-firms-proposed-attack-wikileaks/

Zerkes

Robert said...

I think Heritage are wasting their time. The saner heads in the CIA know perfectly well that the US needs to keep Russia an ally in the "war on terror."

NATO needs Russian help to keep supply routes going to Afghanistan unless they want to be dependent on the Khyber Pass and also to provide intel on Central Asian states. The US needs Russia not to sell the S300 or 400 to Iran but to break the contract. And the Zionists certainly don't want the best IT brains from Akedemgorodok arriving in Iran to clear up the Stuxnet damage and training the Iranian IT sector how to defend Iran's nuclear industry against another such attack in the future.

Bottom line is the Zionists know they can't afford for the Empire to seriously fuck with the Tsar.

The fact that the plan to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO has been dropped says it all. The Orange revolution is defunct and the presence of American and British soldiers in the May Victory parade sends a clear signal that the assault on Russia is over.

jack said...

@Robert

They want the Islamists to succeed it is there proxy army, they want Russia to collapse and be engulfed in civil war so they can carve out Muslim friendly western aligned states and turn Russia.

As for the phoney war in Afghanistan US/NATO is winning while pretending to lose setting up Afghanistan as the regional Columbia for there eventual withdrawal.

The idea that a dysfunctional multi ethnic Islamic insurgency with old weapons, communications that can be easily intercepted and NATO having total air supremacy against the most advance military in the world who has contacts within the Taliban regime is laughable.

Carlo said...

"The fact that the plan to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO has been dropped says it all. The Orange revolution is defunct and the presence of American and British soldiers in the May Victory parade sends a clear signal that the assault on Russia is over."
I agree partially with what you said. The assault on Russia is over - by now, while they need Russia's cooperation. As soon as they don't need it anymore, it will come back. I don't expect this thaw in Russian-Western relations to last more than a few years.

jack said...

..Russia into Mexico

Sorry yet another mistake. I think I will stop commenting.

@Carlo

War against Russia is still on, which in the near future I think we will see what all those NATO exercises about half a dozen in a matter of months in 2009 were all about. Not to mention there big operation in Afghanistan with the Opium trade market to support terrorism and destabilise Eurasia.

Just now I think US policy is mainly shifted towards attacking China seeing how US has agents of influence in the Medvedev regime which includes Chinese energy investments in Africa.