by "Y"
Transcarpathia
ATO
Specific figures for the Transcarpathian contribution to the fighting in the east are starting to appear. Mukachevo news reports that more than 3000 local people are serving at the eastern front. These figures, starting from March 2014, include 742 troops, presumably members of the 128th Mountain Infantry Brigade, along with 217 border guards from the city of Mukachevo and a further 153 from the town of Chop. Small numbers of police have volunteered to go to the front. Recently 11 police officers from Tyachiv and another group of 6 traffic police based in Uzhgorod have rotated back from the front. Some of the police appear to have served as block post guards near Artemovsk, and were housed in residences belonging to the local medical school. At least 24 school buses have been commandeered over this time to transport troops to and from the front. Unsurprisingly, some of these buses have been destroyed at the front, leaving local children without transport to and from school.
Small scale collections still run to generate funds for supplies for the troops.
The most recent local summary casualty figures indicate 24 troops have died with a further 54 wounded. There are now daily reports of losses. A group of 10 soldiers from the Aidar battalion were reported dead on 6 October. These were named individuals buried in a cemetery at Starobelsk, 80 km north of Lugansk. One individual came from Transcarpathia, 36 year old Yuri King. This group died somewhere on the road between the villages of Metallist and Happiness up to 20 km north of Lugansk. On 7 October, 2 soldiers from the 128th Mountain Infantry battalion were reported killed. The death of 3 Ukrainian soldiers with a further 12 wounded was reported on 8 October. Another report on 9 October mentioned the death of one Ukrainian with four casualties in the east. On 11 October, 1 Transcarpathian soldier was killed and five others injured, one seriously, in an ambush of the two cars they were travelling in. The dead soldier was described as a conscript.
A total of 1336 Ukrainian military are reported to have been killed since the beginning of the military operations in the east. More than half of these were so badly mutilated in the battles that the remains were beyond recognition. The Ukrainians are supposedly trying to use DNA analysis to identify them.
Doctors treating the wounded and those returning from the front claim that about 40% of returning soldiers suffer from PTSD. Recovery is very variable and can take a long time, up to 30 years.
Following the signing of the Lustration law, there has been a mass layoff of more than one hundred high rank officers, typically generals and colonels.
Economy
Currency outflow is still a serious problem. There has been a clampdown on illegal currency traders in the Transcarpathian area. It is claimed that such illicit transfers undermine the economic status of the state, undermine the national currency exchange rate and sow panic amongst the citizens.
In reality, the national economy is in dire straits, and the Kiev local government may default on repayment of bonds priced at 1.125 billion US$. The credit rating agency Fitch has already downgraded Kiev to CCC status (Ukraine itself is rated BBB). If the bonds are not repaid by 9 October, Kiev will be downgraded to D, a state of technical default.
Price controls established 10 years ago limiting the profits on bread, meat and cereals have been abandoned. The Transcarpathian road transport lobby is pressing for an increase in tariffs for road transport. It claims that Transcarpathia has the lowest tariff which no longer covers expenses.
Transcarpathian residents have also protested against a government requirement to use state banks for salaries of those serving in the ATO. This requirement has arisen because of alleged corruption in some private banks.
On 10 October, financial figures indicated that Ukraine's total external debt exceeded 102% of GDP. More importantly, the direct guaranteed debt component exceeded 68% of GDP. This latter value is particularly significant as some bond payments due to Russia have a clause allowing for immediate payment should government debt exceed 60% of GDP. I expect there will be some shenanigans to try to avoid or even cancel this repayment requirement.
Energy
The upcoming elections place some emphasis on energy issues. The Transcarpathian politicians propose energy conservation methods and targets and welcome assistance from Hungarian government sources. Yet more illicit taps of oil pipelines flowing through the region have been detected and reported in the press. This presumably is intended to act as a deterrent.
The reverse gas flow situation is still volatile. The flow from Slovakia in October to date has reduced 10% from the levels available in September. Hungary has reiterated its position that it must look after its own customers first. It hopes to be able to restore reverse flow from January 1 2015. Apparently, Russia has taken an option on one of the four natural gas reservoirs in Hungary for its own use. It is filling that reservoir in order to maintain supplies to Europe should there be problems upstream in Ukraine (failure to pay, illicit extraction, sabotage?).
As part of the ongoing gas supply negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine and the EU, the Russia negotiator has stressed that Ukraine's debts must be paid, Ukraine will be supplied on a pre-payment basis and the offered price of $385 provides a discount. The Stockholm arbitration panel should provide a definitive decision in early 2015.
Mobilisation
The Transcarpathian mobilisation authorities claim to have recognised and responded to earlier protests by the mothers / wives of Hungarian conscripts. The claim is that all recruits will now be for purely local service, with 268 individuals serving in five territorial defence units, concerned with local border security and prevention of sabotage.
Politics
Given the approaching election, it is not surprising that numerous surveys have been carried out and reported. The surveys fall into two groups i) those concerned with attitudes to Donbass and ii) those concerned with the outcome of the election. The surveys are ill-defined as reported. None sate explicitly the questions asked. Some reports give information on sample size, demographics and survey type. This lack of background requires the results of the surveys to be treated with caution.
One survey commissioned by the Democratic Initiatives Fund looked at attitudes to the position in Donbass. The survey sample covered individuals from Donbass and from the rest of Ukraine. No other information was reported. The survey repeated that of the respondents in Donbass, 42% wanted to remain within Ukraine with autonomy from Kiev, 26% wanted Donbass to be totally independent, with 16% supporting independence aligned with Russia. Only 7% of respondents from Donbass wanted to revert to the prior status. The residents elsewhere in Ukraine produced different answers. 45.5% wanted the situation to revert to what it was, 32.5% agreed with the idea of allowing Donbass more autonomy, 7% supported full independence and only 5% supported independence aligned with Russia.
In another Transcarpathian survey of 451 Uzhgorod residents questioned on the street in the period 15th to 25th September, 80% agreed that Donbass should not have special status and favoured a united Ukraine.
Several surveys look report on possible outcomes of the election. One survey in Transcarpathia looking at voter intentions reported 26.8% would vote for the Bloc Petro Poroshenko. The two next most significant parties were reported to be the 'Self Help' party and Lyashko's Radical Party. Voting proportions were not given for the latter parties.
A survey carried out by the Transcarpathian Hungarian Institute covering 400 people from 71 sites in the period 1 - 5 October claimed that 41.8% supported the Bloc Petro Poroshenko, 3.5% supported the Popular Front, 2% supported the Fatherland Party and 2% supported the Radical Party. 10% responded that they were undecided on how they would vote and 15.8% responded that they may not vote at all. The remainder presumably intended to vote in low proportions for the other parties or for the self-identified candidates. The self-identified candidates seem to be mainly Pravi Sektor / Svoboda representatives. This seems to be the mechanism by which these parties gain disproportionate power within government given their limited public support
In terms of the election itself, local Pravi Sektor supporters intend to operate mobile group attempting to detect dishonest voting on election day. The will photograph voters presumably to deter multiple voting. It may have the effect of deterring voters opposed to them from voting at all.
Propaganda
The news is depressingly full of bizarre, unsupported or unbelievable claims regarding Donbass, Russia and the PMR. The level of lying, through malicious or through ignorance, is incredibly wearing. If only there was an equivalent of 'Baghdad Bob', who was at least funny in his earnestness and desperation. My nomination for 'Kiev Kev' would be Andriy Lysenko, the spokesman for the Information Centre of the National Security and Defence Centre. Another candidate would be Dmitry Tymchuk, the Kiev Post's military expert. However, I bow before The Kremlin Stooge for his concise and pithy epithet How Full of Shit Would You Have To Be, To Be More Full of Shit than Dmitry Tymchuk?
Lysenko claims that Ukrainian equipment held in Crimea has been supplied the separatists in Donbass. Those separatists are claimed to be deliberately killing civilians in order to instill hatred and that Ukrainian forces will not attack populated areas. All he needs do to achieve genuine 'Baghdad Bob', sorry 'Kiev Kev', status is to declare 'victory is ours'.
In contrast, Tymchuk seems to specialise in seeing Russians here, there and everywhere. On 6 October, he is reported as stating that new Russian armoured vehicles arrived at Donetsk airport and that there are an estimated 3000 Russian troops in Donbass.
Unknown reporters from Radio Liberty come a close third in the sweepstakes. In a perfect expression of historical ignorance, they claim the Ukrainians at Donetsk airport should be equated with the defenders of the WW II Brest fortress. The incident occurred during Operation Barbarossa when the Red Army defended the site against the onslaught of the Wehrmacht. This battle became a symbol of Soviet resistance. I guess this is just confirmation that the CIA geniuses and proteges running the liberty show are a few pages short of a two page historical narrative. They also managed to find the time to organise an international satirical cartoon competition aimed at lampooning Putin, Lavrov and Churkin. This is the prize effort. If I was an American tax payer, I would ask for my money back.
It seems like the Blame Game is underway regarding what will go down as the Ukrainian military's greatest victory. Poroshenko has awarded Heletey the highest military honour - the Order of the Boot, first class. Heletey comes from Transcarpathia and his fellow compatriots also share the honours. The retreat of the Carpathian Battalion is deemed to have caused a domino effect at Ilovaisk. The 326 troops arrived at the front in May, and left in protest about the lack of rotation. They were ordered 3 times to stop on their departure from the front, refusing on all occasions. The troops were described by the Ukrainian Prosecutor as "being under Ambrosia" (a delicate way of saying drunk as a lord).
The obsession with the use of children for propaganda purposes continues. One couple have dressed their 3 year old child as a romantic Cossack complete with 'herring' hair style since he was one year old. It is another amusing irony the Russian Cossacks joined the PMR forces to defend Transnistria against the onslaught of the Moldovan forces.
The brave boys of Pravi Sektor helped by spending time in a Transcarpathian boarding school advocating the importance of being a citizen and a patriot, and demonstrating weapon handling to small boys.
The abilities of the Ukrainian military have been recognised by representatives of the Latvian military, consisting of 4600 professionals and 8000 militia members. The Ukrainian national guard is praised for being "highly motivated", but chided for their "inappropriately high loss". Maybe the Ukrainian military could improve their skills and aim for an appropriately high loss?
Separatism
During a visit of Beregovo politicians to Hungary, the Hungarian Foreign Minister Istvan Mikola commented on the importance of rapprochement between Ukraine and Hungary. He also referred to the importance of "national reunification" of Hungarians across the border.
Resources
Nuland demands war
A rare moment of truth from a US politician with Condoleeza Rice channeling Madeleine Albright. The destruction of European economy is a price worth paying. This video outdoes Bush with his comments that 'this sucker [the US economy] could go down' if the bailout scam legislation wasn't passed and exemplifies his statement that 'the American way of life is not up for negotiations'. In short this video is a keeper.
Transnistria (aka PMR) and Gagauzia
Economy
A recent attempt to raise finance through the issue of short term bonds had some success. The issue raised about 66% of the target, realising about 100 million roubles.
Moldova continues to obstruct progress towards normalisation. Plans to extend an existing railway traffic agreement have been deferred until December. The PMR government claims that Moldova tries to use disagreements between Moldova and Russia to avoid making progress, effectively blackmailing PMR.
Energy
The shortage of coal for generating electricity has forced Ukraine to cut back on exports. It has reduced the amount of electricity exported to Belarus, as it can't reduce the supply to Moldova without affecting the Odessa region.
Politics
The major change politically is the emergence of a clearly coordinated policy between Ukraine, Moldova and Romania, squeezing PMR in an attempt to negatively influence Russia. This 'Triple Alliance' seems to reflect a resurrection of the US designed GUAM scenario (GUAM - Georgia-Ukraine-Azerbaijan-Moldova) in a new format (see resources).
Moldova and Romania has also opened concerted attacks against Lukoil, a Russian company providing fuel in both countries. The Romanian authorities have ordered the halting of production at the Ploetski refinery. This threatens the whole supply chain. The Romanian claim amounts to about 250 million Euro, of which 112 million Euro represent alleged tax evasion and money laundering. Lukoil considers these charges to be without foundation. Given Lukoil has operated in Romania for 15 years without any trouble, the timing of this action is 'interesting'. Purely by coincidence no doubt, the regulatory authority in Moldova has threatened to revoke Lukoil-Moldova's licence. The basis for this is alleged violations of the methodology of price calculation identified during inspections. These deviations supposedly occurred between 2011 and 2013, and resulted in higher prices in that period. The regulator has given Lukoil 14 days to resolve the issue. Lukoil is the largest supplier of diesel in Moldova (32% of the market), and is the second largest supplier for gasoline (32%) and LPG (26%). The actions in Romania mean that Lukoil-Moldova is unable to purchase supplies from there. The alternative sources require import by sea, which take longer and are more expensive. The closure of the refinery has implications for 3500 workers employed in Romania. Given the uncertainty, Lukoil has stopped production until a permit is issued specifically allowing production. Lukoil has also warned that these government actions will have implications for future investment. As usual, the unintended consequences of the their actions seems to have taken the Moldovan and Romanian governments by surprise.
Whilst Romania, Ukraine and Moldova appear to be acting according to the wishes of their US master, Romania at least appears to be exploiting this newly gained power for its own purposes. There appears to be a large, well financed push towards a merger between Moldova and Romania. One prominent player in this game is an outfit called Action 2012, an NGO (surprise, surprise) formed from the merger of 30 independent NGOs. This outfit resorts to predictable PR marketing actions such as a recent protest in Bucharest promoting solidarity with 'Bessarabia' - the Romanian term for Moldova. Other actions include flash mob activities promoting the reintegration of Moldova and Romania as the quickest route to membership of NATO and the EU. Cioroianu, a former Foreign Minister of Romania, claims that Moldova has to chose between PMR and Brussels. He also trots out the US-oriented theme that "Russia without Ukraine is not an empire but only regional power"
In a further outburst of insanity, Romania has demanded that Russia should provide guarantees of teaching of the Romanian language in Transnistria. By insanity, I do not refer to the teaching of Romanian or any other language in PMR schools, but the idea that, somehow or other, Russia should control the PMR education system.
Propaganda
One story that does not go away relates to 30 people supposedly denied entry into PMR by the Moldovan authorities. The reasons for this action are not clear, nor is it clear who these individuals are. The various media outlet have transformed these individuals into Russian soldiers, who are then transformed into Green Men and that is then transformed into evidence for intended invasion of Ukraine. I know that Russian solders are good, but 30 soldiers form an invasion force? That is impressive. One hypothesis is that these individuals are actually Russian peace keeping forces rotating into PMR. The Moldovan actions allow Russian peace keepers out but prevent their replacements from entering PMR which over time would result in the removal of Russian protection for the PMR state.
Separatism
The trending meme is 'X is the second Y'. For example, Gagauzia has been described as potentially the second Donbass in which the Moldovan regime is persecuting Gagauzian opponents. Donbass has been called the second Transnistria whilst Tymoshenko claims Crimea is the second Transnistria. Where will it end? (this is a rhetorical question).
Resources
More detailed and interesting works on the Triple Alliance
Ring around PMR is compressed
Triple Alliance of Romania, Moldova and Ukraine against Russia and Transnistria
Union of Romania, Moldova and Ukraine - resuscitation of GUAM in the new format
In contrast a short travelogue of someone visiting PMR for the first time.
Preconceptions of a visitor
Showing posts with label "Y". Show all posts
Showing posts with label "Y". Show all posts
Monday, October 13, 2014
Monday, October 6, 2014
Transcarpathia, Transnistria and Gagauzia SitRep 28 Sep - 05 Oct
by "Y"
Transcarpathia
ATO
Charitable events continue as a means of supplying aid to troops in the east. Returning troops from the 15th Mountain Infantry Battalion of the 128th Brigade have stated the prime need is for diesel generators, fuel, heaters, thermal underwear and winter clothing. Collections and other actions have raised funds of at least 41,000 UAH (~ $3000) for supplies such as canned food, fast food, coffee and tea. A group of Svoboda supporters have provided a Grand Cherokee Jeep for use in the ATO. This was used to transfer supplies to the front. The local regional coordinating committee has been disbanded, and replaced by volunteers, seemingly part of the 'lustration' process aimed at removing corruption and giving greater transparency.
The Transcarpathian authorities have applied to the Ukraine Ministry of Defense for funding to supply all military needs, especially winter clothing. The sum of 3.5 million UAH has been transferred to military budgets for the purchase of bullet-proof vests, helmets, military boots and warm clothes for up to 650 people. A further 1 million UAH has been allocated for communications equipment.
The reports relating to troop movements are mixed and confusing. One report notes that 38 security police have been sent to the east with another 8 to follow. Another report states that 50 local riot police officers will depart for the ATO zone to relieve others there. The supposed rotation of Border Guard officers to replace troops from 128th Brigade still has not taken place. The parents of these troops still at the front have started protests, stating they may take claims to the International Court of Justice if the rotation does not happen soon.
Some official casualty figures have appeared. The recent attacks at Donetsk resulted in the death of 7 troops with 9 wounded. A further 200 at least were lost at Ilovaisk. Poroshenko has reported that officially 967 Ukrainian troops have been killed to date. The Ukrainian Ambassador to the UN is reported as stating a further 700 troops and 1700 civilians are held by the separatists.
Officially 24 men from Transcarpathia have died in combat. The losses include one Lieutenant Colonel. four Captains and two Lieutenants, with the remainder a mix of NCOs and soldiers. The most recent fatality has been named - a 43 year old volunteer called Yuri Sokolachko, who served as an artillery spotter for the 128th Mechanized Brigade. The lost and survivors were honoured at a public ceremony in Uzhgorod.
Economy
The economic figures for the cost of the actions in the east are dire. Agricultural productivity to August is down 21.4% compared to August last year. The equivalent losses to July were 13%. The drop in industrial production appears to be a disastrous 97% in August compared to the previous month (i.e. an almost complete cessation of production, if the reports are accurate). Foreign investment to mid year has seen a drop of 75.4% compared to the previous year. Given these figures, the drop in exchange rate for the Hryvnia from 14.9 to about 13 to the US dollar seems surprising. This may reflect the effects of the government clamp down on currency outflow, or more likely, external support for the Hryvnia in order to make things seem better than they are.
Energy
Transcarpathia is important as a focus of gas pipelines between Ukraine and Europe, both for flows westwards, and for reverse flows eastwards that have become essential for Ukraine. There are three main sources of reverse flow, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland. The pipelines for these are capable of supplying 23, 17 and 5 million cubic metres of gas per day respectively. The Hungarian reverse flow has ceased in response to Russia's reduction in forward supply. The Hungarian President has stated that it has to put its own energy needs first. Slovakia has reported a 50% reduction in gas supplies, forcing it to reduce reverse flow. The resumption of supplies from Poland following the resolution of technical problems there will be welcomed by the Ukraine regime, but is of minor relevance given the supply figures above. It may be a sign of desperation that the Ukrainian gas corporation Naftogaz is reported to have signed a contract with Statoil of Norway for the supply of gas through Slovakia. The details of how this would work and how it would be financed have not been made public.
There is one extremely tiny piece of good news for Ukraine. An illicit small scale oil extraction facility has been detected and fixed. Inexplicable oil leaks were observed near an oil pipeline close to the border with Hungary. It appears that someone had tapped the pipe to extract possibly a few thousand gallons per day. Shoddy workmanship gave their game away.
As reported earlier, Ukrainian electricity exports have been hit. Published figures report a loss of 4.1% in the first eight months of this year compared to last year. This form of presentation of data may average out and mask any sudden dramatic loss arising from the recent devastation in the east.
Mobilisation
Earlier directives from the Ministry of Defense requiring military commissioners of districts, cities and regions to go to the front to relive troops have had no effect. The local commander Colonel Ivan Vasilovich said he has received no orders regarding this, but will comply when ordered to do so.
It is unlikely there will be a fourth stage of mobilisation. Poroshenko has stated that the potential for peace in the east has reduced the need for such actions. The only requirement is to enable rotation of the troops at the front. The third mobilisation in the Beregovo district of Transcarpathia only raised 50% of the eligible candidates. Following this, it has cancelled its planned fourth stage of mobilisation. The stated reasons include the number of protests against the mobilisation and the reluctance of civilians to perform military service. The looming elections probably have nothing to do with this what so ever.
Politics
The main political events are the recently endorsed lustration process and the forthcoming election.
A total of 75 candidates are standing the six electoral districts forming Transcarpathia. The great majority of the candidates are described as 'self nominated' rather than representing one of the major parties. A high proportion of these 'self nominated' candidates are probably members of Svoboda. Parties associated with Tymoshenko and Lyashko have candidates in all six districts. The party associated with Yatsenyuk has five candidates. The parties associated with Klitschko and Poroshenko have only one candidate each, in the Uzhgorod district. Given the use of 'self nomination' to hide political allegiance, these figures may under represent the effective political affiliations. Two candidates for the Pravi Sektor party were rejected by the Election Commission. Their response was that everyone should remember the fate of Yanukovich.
A group of three brothers - the so-called Baloha clan - are standing for election, one each in districts 69 (Mukachevo), 71 (Hust) and 73 (Vinogradov). All are described as 'self-nominated'. The Baloha brother standing for Mukachevo gets a lot of coverage in the Mukachevo press. He comes out with some memorable quotes. For example, "the only place the Communist Party can speak is in the SBU office". On plans to create a national army of 150,000 professionals with 500,000 reserves, he asks about the costs and where will the money come from. He is reported as saying "Sorry, friends, but this is called selective Masturbation". He views Poroshenko as a capable business man, but not a President. Local opinion suggests that two of the brothers will almost certainly win seats.
Hubal, the Head of the Regional State Authority has met with OSCE representatives to discuss the electoral process. He has stated that the main concern is transparency of the elections and that the RSA will not interfere in the process. The OSCE representatives reiterated that they are just observers and have no policing powers. OPORA, an NGO monitoring the process, lists 'irregularities' it comes across. These include multiple candidates with the same surname, damage to party billboards, non-compliant advertising and plagiarism of mandate text. The use of 'self-nomination' to mask party allegiance does not appear to be an 'irregularity'.
Poroshenko has finally signed the Lustration Law. The Ukrainian Attorney General has expressed the view that some provisions of the law may inconsistent with the Ukraine constitution and the requirements of international (specifically EU) law. There may be a large number of appeals lodged with the European Court of Human Rights. Lustration enthusiasts have been preempting final acceptance of the law by pressing individuals to resign. Hubal has said the Head of Regional TV should resign, whilst the Head and Deputy Head of the local Health Organisation have already been affected. A temporary replacement has taken over their position.
One problem for the enthusiasts is that the Law does not apply to MPs. Baloha says this allows a fifth column to remain in parliament. His view is that the law needs expanding and candidates should be required to say whether they support the law or not on their ballots.
An alternative view of the 'lustration' process is that "Officially, the Law 'On cleaning power' is intended to restore trust in government and lay the legal basis for the construction of a new system of government by European standards. Unofficially - it is to gather votes and divert the public from violent economic crisis, the Hryvnia depreciation and political power failures in the Crimea and in the East."
Other recently reported items of political news include the delay by the EU in processing the Free trade Agreement with Ukraine, which may not happen before the end of 2015. Baloha blames government corruption for the delay in the implementation of visa-free travel to the EU countries. An amnesty for illegally held guns has been announced for October. The stated purpose is to prevent criminals gaining access to these weapons.
Propaganda
At a recent charity event in Uzhgorod celebrating the birthday of the artist Ignatius Roscovich, alongside the usual cake and book stalls was a shooting game for all the family - shoot Putin using a bow and arrow.
In contrast to the usual propaganda about Russian forces attacking Mariupol, the destruction of an elite Russian marine unit near Debaltseve located at the crossroads between Donetsk and Lugansk, and claims of KAMAZ lorries full of 'Cargo 200' heading towards Russia, there is an hilariously desperate article about an ethnic Hungarian member of an international group fighting with the separatists against the regime forces in the east.
Separatism
The issues relating to the Hungarian minority continue unresolved. The Society of Hungarian Culture in Transcarpathia is reportedly intending to file a lawsuit with the European Court of Human Rights over the problems with the boundary of the 73rd district. The Central Election Commission has declined to recreate a majority district for Hungarian interests. A change of boundary of the 73rd district prior to the 2012 election was made in favour of a pro-Government candidate who won. This was at the expense of Hungarian interests.
The charity established by the right wing Hungarian Jobbik party has been declared illegal and the Hungarian MEP Bela Kovacs has been banned from entering the country. An analyst, Professor Sergay Fedak, has stated that the majority of ethnic Hungarians are against autonomy, and are more concerned with the economy and social services. The report gives no clue as to how these conclusions were reached.
A local report linked to a TV program discussing Hungarian and Rusyn separatism. It showed a small demonstration in Budapest where Transcarpathian flags were shown. The commentators stated that it was not known who was behind this. Other sections of the program referred to Petro Getsko, the Rusyn separatist. The style of the program clearly implied that Russian funding and connections were behind the calls for autonomy.
Following the tension about autonomy and the suspension of reverse gas flow, it is not surprising that Nuland has stepped in making comments stating that Hungary is supporting nationalism and attempting a 'rollback of democracy'. It looks like Orban may have become persona non-grata for the Indispensable Nation®.
Resources
Transcarpathian fragment of Ukrainian patchwork
Ukrainian Armed Forces
Transnistria (aka PMR) and Gagauzia
ATO
The Moldovan MP who visited Donbass has urged the Council of Europe (PACE) to launch an investigation into the war crimes carried out in Donbass.
About 60 people from Ukraine have sought refuge in Transnistria following the actions in the east.
Economy
Work continues on the proposal for an airport at Tiraspol. A commission has been established to look at the costs of lighting, communications and runway upgrades. The main problem however is political. Given the uncertain legal status of PMR, the consent of Moldova is needed before the proposal to proceed to reality.
Moldova is still reportedly not issuing export certificates for PMR goods. In response to a deteriorating economy, the PMR government is proposing to raise excise duties on tobacco, alcohol, some luxury and electrical goods from January 2015.
Moldovan farmers affected the proposed road between Tiraspol and Ribnita have been offered compensation for the loss of use of their land.
Should Moldova proceed with a Free trade agreement with Europe, the PMR government would want to see a separate document covering equivalent relationships with Transnistria.
Figures recently released indicate the significance to the Moldovan economy of the contribution of personal remittances from abroad. The monthly total for August was about $154 million. Of this, 39% came from Russia, 36% from Europe and 25% from the US. These remittances amount to 25-30% of Moldova's GDP. Therefore, the contribution from Moldovan migrants to Russia is about 10-12% of GDP.
Energy
One of the consequences of the Kiev regime's actions in the east has been a reduction in coal supply with a consequent reduction in the exportable electricity capacity. Moldova has seen a 20% reduction in electricity supplied from Ukraine. This has been offset by an increased supply from the PMR power station. Moldova imports 90% of electricity with about 60% normally from Ukraine and about 30% from the PMR.
Gagauzia officials have opened discussions of the implementation of a mechanism by which Russia offers first 500 cu m of gas at reduced cost to consumers in Gagauzia. Gagauzia wants the gas pipelines in its territory that are not on Moldovan books to be integrated into a network, allowing it to join the gas market with the Customs Union. The PMR government has stated it is ready to pay market rates for Russia gas subject to the resolution of the economic blockades imposed on it.
Politics
Moldova has issued a demand that Russian peacekeeping troops should leave Transnistria. Ukraine has also placed restrictions on the flow of goods to Russian contingent. Shevchuk, the President of the PMR, states that the tripartite peacekeeping troops should remain in place until the final resolution of the political position.
Propaganda
Shevchuk has stated that claims of buildup of PMR troops preparing for an attack against Ukraine are false. He regards these claims as an attempt by external political forces to organize or to provoke a conflict on the border with Transnistria. PMR has appealed to Ukraine and OSCE to discuss the problem. Shevchuk comments "by a strange coincidence, the OSCE in Chisinau for some reason does not support our initiative. That is strange. If the international organization confirmed the lack of military preparations, I think the tension would be minimised". He has also reiterated that the PMR has not sent any representatives to the Donbass region.
Separatism
Attempts at reunification of Moldova and Romania may lead to a final goodbye from Transnistria and Gagauzia. Rogozin has been reported stating the Russia will protect its citizens in PMR if Moldova repeats the 'Ukraine scenario'.
Citizens of Gagauzia have protested recent actions of the SBU. The SBU has arrested a number of young activists based on charges of treason and terrorism. A rally was held, attended by politicians, activists and parents of those arrested. In a poll, 98% of Gagauzians stated Gagauzia should become independent if Moldova reunites with Romania. Some analysts reported in Gagauzian press offer the view that Moscow may recognise the independence of PMR and Gagauzia if Moldova joins Romania. George Friedman, the president of STRATFOR, was in Chisinau recently promoting re-unification with Romania. He stated that it was 5 years too late for Moldova to join the EU. He claims that "Russia is a country in decline. Romania is on the rise" and that Moldovans "need shelter. Europe is an illusion. Russia is weak".
Resources
NATO eyes Transnistria
More blowback in the offing
Ukraine and Transnistria: A Troubled Borderland
Transcarpathia
ATO
Charitable events continue as a means of supplying aid to troops in the east. Returning troops from the 15th Mountain Infantry Battalion of the 128th Brigade have stated the prime need is for diesel generators, fuel, heaters, thermal underwear and winter clothing. Collections and other actions have raised funds of at least 41,000 UAH (~ $3000) for supplies such as canned food, fast food, coffee and tea. A group of Svoboda supporters have provided a Grand Cherokee Jeep for use in the ATO. This was used to transfer supplies to the front. The local regional coordinating committee has been disbanded, and replaced by volunteers, seemingly part of the 'lustration' process aimed at removing corruption and giving greater transparency.
The Transcarpathian authorities have applied to the Ukraine Ministry of Defense for funding to supply all military needs, especially winter clothing. The sum of 3.5 million UAH has been transferred to military budgets for the purchase of bullet-proof vests, helmets, military boots and warm clothes for up to 650 people. A further 1 million UAH has been allocated for communications equipment.
The reports relating to troop movements are mixed and confusing. One report notes that 38 security police have been sent to the east with another 8 to follow. Another report states that 50 local riot police officers will depart for the ATO zone to relieve others there. The supposed rotation of Border Guard officers to replace troops from 128th Brigade still has not taken place. The parents of these troops still at the front have started protests, stating they may take claims to the International Court of Justice if the rotation does not happen soon.
Some official casualty figures have appeared. The recent attacks at Donetsk resulted in the death of 7 troops with 9 wounded. A further 200 at least were lost at Ilovaisk. Poroshenko has reported that officially 967 Ukrainian troops have been killed to date. The Ukrainian Ambassador to the UN is reported as stating a further 700 troops and 1700 civilians are held by the separatists.
Officially 24 men from Transcarpathia have died in combat. The losses include one Lieutenant Colonel. four Captains and two Lieutenants, with the remainder a mix of NCOs and soldiers. The most recent fatality has been named - a 43 year old volunteer called Yuri Sokolachko, who served as an artillery spotter for the 128th Mechanized Brigade. The lost and survivors were honoured at a public ceremony in Uzhgorod.
Economy
The economic figures for the cost of the actions in the east are dire. Agricultural productivity to August is down 21.4% compared to August last year. The equivalent losses to July were 13%. The drop in industrial production appears to be a disastrous 97% in August compared to the previous month (i.e. an almost complete cessation of production, if the reports are accurate). Foreign investment to mid year has seen a drop of 75.4% compared to the previous year. Given these figures, the drop in exchange rate for the Hryvnia from 14.9 to about 13 to the US dollar seems surprising. This may reflect the effects of the government clamp down on currency outflow, or more likely, external support for the Hryvnia in order to make things seem better than they are.
Energy
Transcarpathia is important as a focus of gas pipelines between Ukraine and Europe, both for flows westwards, and for reverse flows eastwards that have become essential for Ukraine. There are three main sources of reverse flow, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland. The pipelines for these are capable of supplying 23, 17 and 5 million cubic metres of gas per day respectively. The Hungarian reverse flow has ceased in response to Russia's reduction in forward supply. The Hungarian President has stated that it has to put its own energy needs first. Slovakia has reported a 50% reduction in gas supplies, forcing it to reduce reverse flow. The resumption of supplies from Poland following the resolution of technical problems there will be welcomed by the Ukraine regime, but is of minor relevance given the supply figures above. It may be a sign of desperation that the Ukrainian gas corporation Naftogaz is reported to have signed a contract with Statoil of Norway for the supply of gas through Slovakia. The details of how this would work and how it would be financed have not been made public.
There is one extremely tiny piece of good news for Ukraine. An illicit small scale oil extraction facility has been detected and fixed. Inexplicable oil leaks were observed near an oil pipeline close to the border with Hungary. It appears that someone had tapped the pipe to extract possibly a few thousand gallons per day. Shoddy workmanship gave their game away.
As reported earlier, Ukrainian electricity exports have been hit. Published figures report a loss of 4.1% in the first eight months of this year compared to last year. This form of presentation of data may average out and mask any sudden dramatic loss arising from the recent devastation in the east.
Mobilisation
Earlier directives from the Ministry of Defense requiring military commissioners of districts, cities and regions to go to the front to relive troops have had no effect. The local commander Colonel Ivan Vasilovich said he has received no orders regarding this, but will comply when ordered to do so.
It is unlikely there will be a fourth stage of mobilisation. Poroshenko has stated that the potential for peace in the east has reduced the need for such actions. The only requirement is to enable rotation of the troops at the front. The third mobilisation in the Beregovo district of Transcarpathia only raised 50% of the eligible candidates. Following this, it has cancelled its planned fourth stage of mobilisation. The stated reasons include the number of protests against the mobilisation and the reluctance of civilians to perform military service. The looming elections probably have nothing to do with this what so ever.
Politics
The main political events are the recently endorsed lustration process and the forthcoming election.
A total of 75 candidates are standing the six electoral districts forming Transcarpathia. The great majority of the candidates are described as 'self nominated' rather than representing one of the major parties. A high proportion of these 'self nominated' candidates are probably members of Svoboda. Parties associated with Tymoshenko and Lyashko have candidates in all six districts. The party associated with Yatsenyuk has five candidates. The parties associated with Klitschko and Poroshenko have only one candidate each, in the Uzhgorod district. Given the use of 'self nomination' to hide political allegiance, these figures may under represent the effective political affiliations. Two candidates for the Pravi Sektor party were rejected by the Election Commission. Their response was that everyone should remember the fate of Yanukovich.
A group of three brothers - the so-called Baloha clan - are standing for election, one each in districts 69 (Mukachevo), 71 (Hust) and 73 (Vinogradov). All are described as 'self-nominated'. The Baloha brother standing for Mukachevo gets a lot of coverage in the Mukachevo press. He comes out with some memorable quotes. For example, "the only place the Communist Party can speak is in the SBU office". On plans to create a national army of 150,000 professionals with 500,000 reserves, he asks about the costs and where will the money come from. He is reported as saying "Sorry, friends, but this is called selective Masturbation". He views Poroshenko as a capable business man, but not a President. Local opinion suggests that two of the brothers will almost certainly win seats.
Hubal, the Head of the Regional State Authority has met with OSCE representatives to discuss the electoral process. He has stated that the main concern is transparency of the elections and that the RSA will not interfere in the process. The OSCE representatives reiterated that they are just observers and have no policing powers. OPORA, an NGO monitoring the process, lists 'irregularities' it comes across. These include multiple candidates with the same surname, damage to party billboards, non-compliant advertising and plagiarism of mandate text. The use of 'self-nomination' to mask party allegiance does not appear to be an 'irregularity'.
Poroshenko has finally signed the Lustration Law. The Ukrainian Attorney General has expressed the view that some provisions of the law may inconsistent with the Ukraine constitution and the requirements of international (specifically EU) law. There may be a large number of appeals lodged with the European Court of Human Rights. Lustration enthusiasts have been preempting final acceptance of the law by pressing individuals to resign. Hubal has said the Head of Regional TV should resign, whilst the Head and Deputy Head of the local Health Organisation have already been affected. A temporary replacement has taken over their position.
One problem for the enthusiasts is that the Law does not apply to MPs. Baloha says this allows a fifth column to remain in parliament. His view is that the law needs expanding and candidates should be required to say whether they support the law or not on their ballots.
An alternative view of the 'lustration' process is that "Officially, the Law 'On cleaning power' is intended to restore trust in government and lay the legal basis for the construction of a new system of government by European standards. Unofficially - it is to gather votes and divert the public from violent economic crisis, the Hryvnia depreciation and political power failures in the Crimea and in the East."
Other recently reported items of political news include the delay by the EU in processing the Free trade Agreement with Ukraine, which may not happen before the end of 2015. Baloha blames government corruption for the delay in the implementation of visa-free travel to the EU countries. An amnesty for illegally held guns has been announced for October. The stated purpose is to prevent criminals gaining access to these weapons.
Propaganda
At a recent charity event in Uzhgorod celebrating the birthday of the artist Ignatius Roscovich, alongside the usual cake and book stalls was a shooting game for all the family - shoot Putin using a bow and arrow.
In contrast to the usual propaganda about Russian forces attacking Mariupol, the destruction of an elite Russian marine unit near Debaltseve located at the crossroads between Donetsk and Lugansk, and claims of KAMAZ lorries full of 'Cargo 200' heading towards Russia, there is an hilariously desperate article about an ethnic Hungarian member of an international group fighting with the separatists against the regime forces in the east.
Separatism
The issues relating to the Hungarian minority continue unresolved. The Society of Hungarian Culture in Transcarpathia is reportedly intending to file a lawsuit with the European Court of Human Rights over the problems with the boundary of the 73rd district. The Central Election Commission has declined to recreate a majority district for Hungarian interests. A change of boundary of the 73rd district prior to the 2012 election was made in favour of a pro-Government candidate who won. This was at the expense of Hungarian interests.
The charity established by the right wing Hungarian Jobbik party has been declared illegal and the Hungarian MEP Bela Kovacs has been banned from entering the country. An analyst, Professor Sergay Fedak, has stated that the majority of ethnic Hungarians are against autonomy, and are more concerned with the economy and social services. The report gives no clue as to how these conclusions were reached.
A local report linked to a TV program discussing Hungarian and Rusyn separatism. It showed a small demonstration in Budapest where Transcarpathian flags were shown. The commentators stated that it was not known who was behind this. Other sections of the program referred to Petro Getsko, the Rusyn separatist. The style of the program clearly implied that Russian funding and connections were behind the calls for autonomy.
Following the tension about autonomy and the suspension of reverse gas flow, it is not surprising that Nuland has stepped in making comments stating that Hungary is supporting nationalism and attempting a 'rollback of democracy'. It looks like Orban may have become persona non-grata for the Indispensable Nation®.
Resources
Transcarpathian fragment of Ukrainian patchwork
Ukrainian Armed Forces
Transnistria (aka PMR) and Gagauzia
ATO
The Moldovan MP who visited Donbass has urged the Council of Europe (PACE) to launch an investigation into the war crimes carried out in Donbass.
About 60 people from Ukraine have sought refuge in Transnistria following the actions in the east.
Economy
Work continues on the proposal for an airport at Tiraspol. A commission has been established to look at the costs of lighting, communications and runway upgrades. The main problem however is political. Given the uncertain legal status of PMR, the consent of Moldova is needed before the proposal to proceed to reality.
Moldova is still reportedly not issuing export certificates for PMR goods. In response to a deteriorating economy, the PMR government is proposing to raise excise duties on tobacco, alcohol, some luxury and electrical goods from January 2015.
Moldovan farmers affected the proposed road between Tiraspol and Ribnita have been offered compensation for the loss of use of their land.
Should Moldova proceed with a Free trade agreement with Europe, the PMR government would want to see a separate document covering equivalent relationships with Transnistria.
Figures recently released indicate the significance to the Moldovan economy of the contribution of personal remittances from abroad. The monthly total for August was about $154 million. Of this, 39% came from Russia, 36% from Europe and 25% from the US. These remittances amount to 25-30% of Moldova's GDP. Therefore, the contribution from Moldovan migrants to Russia is about 10-12% of GDP.
Energy
One of the consequences of the Kiev regime's actions in the east has been a reduction in coal supply with a consequent reduction in the exportable electricity capacity. Moldova has seen a 20% reduction in electricity supplied from Ukraine. This has been offset by an increased supply from the PMR power station. Moldova imports 90% of electricity with about 60% normally from Ukraine and about 30% from the PMR.
Gagauzia officials have opened discussions of the implementation of a mechanism by which Russia offers first 500 cu m of gas at reduced cost to consumers in Gagauzia. Gagauzia wants the gas pipelines in its territory that are not on Moldovan books to be integrated into a network, allowing it to join the gas market with the Customs Union. The PMR government has stated it is ready to pay market rates for Russia gas subject to the resolution of the economic blockades imposed on it.
Politics
Moldova has issued a demand that Russian peacekeeping troops should leave Transnistria. Ukraine has also placed restrictions on the flow of goods to Russian contingent. Shevchuk, the President of the PMR, states that the tripartite peacekeeping troops should remain in place until the final resolution of the political position.
Propaganda
Shevchuk has stated that claims of buildup of PMR troops preparing for an attack against Ukraine are false. He regards these claims as an attempt by external political forces to organize or to provoke a conflict on the border with Transnistria. PMR has appealed to Ukraine and OSCE to discuss the problem. Shevchuk comments "by a strange coincidence, the OSCE in Chisinau for some reason does not support our initiative. That is strange. If the international organization confirmed the lack of military preparations, I think the tension would be minimised". He has also reiterated that the PMR has not sent any representatives to the Donbass region.
Separatism
Attempts at reunification of Moldova and Romania may lead to a final goodbye from Transnistria and Gagauzia. Rogozin has been reported stating the Russia will protect its citizens in PMR if Moldova repeats the 'Ukraine scenario'.
Citizens of Gagauzia have protested recent actions of the SBU. The SBU has arrested a number of young activists based on charges of treason and terrorism. A rally was held, attended by politicians, activists and parents of those arrested. In a poll, 98% of Gagauzians stated Gagauzia should become independent if Moldova reunites with Romania. Some analysts reported in Gagauzian press offer the view that Moscow may recognise the independence of PMR and Gagauzia if Moldova joins Romania. George Friedman, the president of STRATFOR, was in Chisinau recently promoting re-unification with Romania. He stated that it was 5 years too late for Moldova to join the EU. He claims that "Russia is a country in decline. Romania is on the rise" and that Moldovans "need shelter. Europe is an illusion. Russia is weak".
Resources
NATO eyes Transnistria
More blowback in the offing
Ukraine and Transnistria: A Troubled Borderland
Sunday, September 14, 2014
Transcarpathia and Transnistria SitRep 06 Sep - 13 Sep
by "Y"
Transcarpathia
ATO
The local police units are still training for ATO service and small groups of police officers still volunteer to fight in the ATO. Fifteen such officers have volunteered during the period covered by this report.
Soldiers from the 128th Transcarpathian unit are returning from the front to Transcarpathia. They arrive in irregularly sized batches; 10 on September 6, a further 30 on the 7th,, then 3 large buses (so possibly 100+ troops) on the 13th. This unit is reported as serving 50 days at the front line, based at Schasta 20 km north of Lugansk. This is the unit that left the front without permission for the Ukraine military command. A commanding officer stated that all the men had served honourably. The battalion commander, named as Vitaliy Komar, was recently released on bail after being arrested in Odessa. He faces a possible 10 year prison sentence. He claims that he is has been made a scapegoat for the poor quality of the upper levels of the Ukrainian military command.
Militia members from the Transcarpathian 'Sich' group complain about poor weapons, limited ammunition that has to be acquired at their own expense or through donations, and absurd orders from above resulting in the militia being left to its own fate.
Four prisoners held by the NAF came from Transcarpathia.Three were members of the 51st Brigade and one from the Donbass battalion, with call sign 'Chrome'. These have been released. The bereaved families of 12 Transcarpathia military members have received a total of 7.3 million UAH in cash assistance (the UAH trades at about 14 to the US dollar).
In an attempt to reassure volunteers, the Transcarpathian regional commission has confirmed that reservists and conscripts defending the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine in the ATO will be recognized as combatants. The intent is to clearly make them eligible for treatment as PoWs if captured and perhaps more importantly, immunity from prosecution within Ukraine.
Finally, more refugees have arrived from the east and Crimea, bringing the total to 1485 (1039) from Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and 227 (222) from Crimea. The figures in brackets represent the totals residing within Transcarpathia at the end of August. There clearly has been a dramatic increase in the number of people fleeing from the fighting in the east. It is not clear whether these individuals are Transcarpathians who have returned or Ukrainians seeking to get as far away from the conflict as possible.
Economy
The economy is in dire straits. Local media report inflation reached 14.2% for August. Utility costs (telephone, water) are increasing whilst income remains stagnant. The limited amount of money available to organise the upcoming election is reported as a big issue for Transcarpathia.
In a wider context relating to the pending EU Agreement, a working group has been established to restore rail connections from Uzhgorod to Prague, Budapest and Romania. Another working group is look at increasing the number of border crossing points between Hungary and Transcarpathia, possibly reducing the spacing from ~35 km to about ~15 km. These changes would facilitate increased trade and tourist traffic.
Energy
Miroslav Lajcak, the Deputy Prime Minister of Slovakia spent two days in Transcarpathia discussing energy issues. Slovakia claims to be able to provide a reverse flow gas supply to Ukraine. However, Gazprom has reacted to this and other attempts at providing reverse supplies. It has reduced supply to Slovakia by 10%, it will reduce gas volumes supplied to Poland and Germany, and has increased the price of gas supplied to Hungary. This latter move should make gas transit from Hungary economically unprofitable. The difference in treatment by Russia of Hungary versus Poland, Slovakia and Germany probably reflects the different positions of the respective countries: Hungary a potential ally and trading partner at one end and Poland an implacable foe at the other. If this is the case, it is interesting that Germany falls on the side of Poland rather than Hungary.
In a further move, Lukoil has announced it is interested in buying the Transneft pipeline running through Transcarpathia. Transneft has lost $62.5 million over the last five years through theft of oil. The cost for acquiring Transneft is likely to be less than $150 million.
Mobilisation
The third phase of mobilization is very problematic country wide. The age limits for exemption are desperately high - 65 years for officers. Only 145 individuals were recruited from the Transcarpathian regions. People are simply ignoring the notices to report or fleeing the region. The authorities are trying to control this situation; the SBU is creating a database of every Ukrainian who has been captured in the east or who has gone missing. They are also monitoring internally displaced persons from the east and Crimea. The wives and mothers of conscripted soldiers are still continuing their protests, demanding that their men not be sent to the front. These protests are much smaller than earlier, booth in number and size of individual demonstrations.
The increased taxation supposedly to support the military in the east has generated 5 million UAH per month in Transcarpathia alone. This tax is based on a 1.5% levy on income and lottery winning, and excludes capital and property assets, so it affects the poorer levels of society in greater proportion, whilst the extremely wealth are relatively immune to its effects.
Politics
The main explicit political news relates to the forthcoming election. A number of local politicians are standing: Viktor Baloha District 69 around Mukachevo, Basil Petiovka District 72 around Tyachiv and Nicoletta Subs District 68 around Uzhgorod. Another politician, Istvan Gajdos, considers Ukraine to be at war making the holding of elections inappropriate. Consequently he is not standing for a major position.
Only Baloha appears prominently in news reports so far. He strongly supports the war in the east, and states that martial law should be declared if necessary. He also says this should be done for the benefit of the country, not to preserve the positions of people already in power. He has declared that money spent on political advertising would be better spent fighting the war. Consequently he has stated that he will donate all such money he receives to the military. More recently he has stated that the 'peace plan' is failing as the Ukrainian positions are being constantly shelled by the Russian-supported 'terrorists'. Consequently there can be no deals with Putin. His view is that there are two options i) full take over the east and wipe out all opposition, or ii) leave it totally, stop financing it and transfer the problem to Russia by defining new borders.
The sudden presence of Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch with pro-Russian views, in Uzhgorod raised some alarm in the local pro-regime camp, fearing he may be attempting to destabilise the region of behalf of Putin.
Propaganda
The usual propaganda activities are still operational. Collections, concerts and other similar events are used to raise funds for the actions in the east. The amounts involved are dwarfed by the amounts raised by the tax mentioned earlier, so the acts serve to provide a 'feel good' factor and possibly supply specific items to unofficial militias with local members. Local NGOs have been formed supposedly to further support and aid the troops. One group 'Movement to Support Transcarpathian Soldiers' was formed by a small group of local artists, media people and journalists. Their major activity seems to have been a press conference. Another group "Native Mukachevo" aims to support fighters from Mukachevo. Details are lacking so far, but they have the air of being entities used to raise the profile of those behind them.
More insidious events reflect the underlying promotion of a pure Ukrainian nation. Firstly a short report in a local online new outlet reports that 'contrary to stereotypes, some Roma soldiers will fight loyally for Ukraine'.
Secondly a local villager, Vladimir Golovchak, had the idea of creating the first children's battalion 'Falcon'. The membership includes children aged 2-10 years. The intent is to raise a patriotic spirit in these children. The associated YouTube video shows the children holding a Pravi Sektor flag central stage, with a Ukrainian flag off to one side.
Separatism
Despite an agreement between Poroshenko and the Hungarian Ethnic Alliance (KMKSZ), there will not be an autonomous Hungarian region in Transcarpathia. This precludes the formation of a Hungarian voting block. The Hungarian government supports the Transcarpathian Hungarian minority in their quest for autonomy. The Hungarian minority in the region have warned that separatism might become a real problem if things get worse in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian response has taken two forms. Firstly an NGO has been created to promote the idea that Hungarian life should move closer to the Ukrainian style. This will probably be as effective as a chocolate teapot.
Secondly, and more effectively, the Transcarpathian authorities are clamping down on all forms of activity that could be seen as supporting or proposing separatism. Local pro-Ukraine media report that once potential separatists have met investigators, the 'promptly fall in love with Ukraine'. The investigators do face problems, as those interviewed frequently claim their social media pages have been hacked or vandalised. There are four reported criminal cases of Rusyn separatism, one prominent person is named as Ivan Petrovtsiy. A second case is only identified by the surname - Sidor. One local resident from Uzhgorod has been sentenced to a 3 year jail term, followed by 1 year probation. The offense cited was 'calling for violent overthrow of constitutional order, formation of illegal paramilitaries in region'. This obviously could be applied to anyone proposing or taking part in another Maidan against the current regime.
The Transcarpathian local government has not disbanded the local Berkut, contrary to the Ukrainian law passed on 25 February. Members of the Pravi Sektor object to this, probably because it weakens their strategy of using violence to silence opposition.
It is clear that the Ukrainian regime fears more attempts at separatism, and possibly any dissenting voices whatsoever. For example, I have seen images of demonstrations in Mariupol before and after the start of the ATO. From these, it seems plausible that such dissent is suppressed rather having faded away. The 'before' image I have in mind shows a public square fully occupied with anti-regime protestors. The 'after' image shows the same square with a much smaller number of pro-regime supporters, taking up about 1/4 to 1/3 of the square. There are two other distinguishing factors; the dominance of Ukrainian symbols (flags flown or being worn) and a large number of buses parked alongside the square. No such buses were present in the first protest. One possible explanation is that someone (the local oligarch?) has gone to the expense of providing uniform PR material and bussing people in from outside the locality.
Transnistria
ATO
On September 10, the Transnistrian Prime Minister Evgeny Shevchuk signed a law requiring all organisations that have bunkers (air raid shelters ?) and other civil security facilities to prepare them for use. It is not clear whether this is in anticipation of a possible attack from Ukraine, Moldova or both. The Ukrainian Ambassador to Moldova has denied Kiev plans to attack Transnistria.
Economy
The Transnistrian economy is severely hampered by the blockade from Moldova and Ukraine. Most of the exports were destined for Russia or Europe, using Odessa as an exit port. This is now closed as a result of the actions by Ukraine. The Gagauzian region of Moldova also has substantial trade Russia and Turkey. It is alarmed by talk of Moldova rejoining ROmania. The Moldovan economy is also very dependent on Russia. It is claimed that ~30% of its GDP arises from money returned by Moldovan migrants to Russia. Russia is currently tightening up its position regarding migrants. Moldova also exports wine and apples to Russia. The viability of this trade will ma be severely affected when Moldova signs the Association Agreement with the UE.
Politics
Political groups in Transnistria has repeated their support of the DNR in their quest for liberation from fascism. In a 2006 referendum, more than 93% of Transnistrians wanted to join the Russian federation. The Russian response has been that this is difficult because there is no shared border.
The main political issue is the undefined legal status of Transnistria. The blockade by Moldova and Ukraine severely hampers the Transnistrian economy. Transnistria has deferred the forthcoming '5+2' talks until these issues are dealt with or included within the scope of the negotiations. The Transnistrian Head of Foreign Affairs met with the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Rubin and the US Ambassador to Moldova W H Moser. The state US position is it wants to the help OSCE mission to Moldova and the '5+2' group to overcome problems and achieve concrete results. Transnistria's position is the negotiation were stopped by Moldova in 2006, only to be restarted in 2011 after much effort especially by Russia to get the talks restarted. Transnistria's suspension of the talks is in response to the economic blockade imposed by Moldova. This has been made worse because Chisinau and Kiev now only allow Transnistrian exports to pass if they have been documented by Moldova. This imposes additional time and monetary costs on the affected goods. Transnistria's position is that it simply wants to run its foreign trade interdependently of Moldova. More recently, Moldovan customs officers at Tiraspol airport have started imposing overly intrusive examinations of the luggage of Transnistrian politicians.
The US has requested that Russia withdraw its peacekeeping troops from Transnistria. The basis for their demand is that the presence does not comply with the Combat Forces in Europe (CFE) agreement. Lavrov has rejected this blatant attempt to weaken Transnistria by stating that the West has not signed the document, so it has no meaning in this case. The US position is made more obvious by their demand that the OSCE mission needs unrestricted access to Transnistrian region because of rising tensions on Ukraine border. The conveniently skip over the fact that the tensions are the result of Ukraine's actions, not those of Transnistria.
Propaganda
One major strand of propaganda is that Russian troops in Transnistria will be used to attack Odessa as the basis for a unified Novorossian coastal zone. This ignores the reality that the peacekeeping force in Transnistria is a roughly equal mix of Transnistrian, Moldovan and Russian troops. If the Russian troops leave Transnistria, then pro-US forces will have little difficulty in overwhelming the Transnistrian forces.
The most amusing propaganda tale relates to the appearance of 'so-called green men' in Moldova, as reported by Moldovan counter-intelligence. These 'little green men' have managed somehow or other to mysteriously appear on Moldovan territory. They attempt to recruit young people as saboteurs, who are taught methods of disinformation, how to act in emergency situations, and how to handle small arms. These green men are, of course, not visible to the normal human eye, but are 'irrefutable evidence' that Transnistria is preparing for war and Russia is recruiting saboteurs.
Transcarpathia
ATO
The local police units are still training for ATO service and small groups of police officers still volunteer to fight in the ATO. Fifteen such officers have volunteered during the period covered by this report.
Soldiers from the 128th Transcarpathian unit are returning from the front to Transcarpathia. They arrive in irregularly sized batches; 10 on September 6, a further 30 on the 7th,, then 3 large buses (so possibly 100+ troops) on the 13th. This unit is reported as serving 50 days at the front line, based at Schasta 20 km north of Lugansk. This is the unit that left the front without permission for the Ukraine military command. A commanding officer stated that all the men had served honourably. The battalion commander, named as Vitaliy Komar, was recently released on bail after being arrested in Odessa. He faces a possible 10 year prison sentence. He claims that he is has been made a scapegoat for the poor quality of the upper levels of the Ukrainian military command.
Militia members from the Transcarpathian 'Sich' group complain about poor weapons, limited ammunition that has to be acquired at their own expense or through donations, and absurd orders from above resulting in the militia being left to its own fate.
Four prisoners held by the NAF came from Transcarpathia.Three were members of the 51st Brigade and one from the Donbass battalion, with call sign 'Chrome'. These have been released. The bereaved families of 12 Transcarpathia military members have received a total of 7.3 million UAH in cash assistance (the UAH trades at about 14 to the US dollar).
In an attempt to reassure volunteers, the Transcarpathian regional commission has confirmed that reservists and conscripts defending the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine in the ATO will be recognized as combatants. The intent is to clearly make them eligible for treatment as PoWs if captured and perhaps more importantly, immunity from prosecution within Ukraine.
Finally, more refugees have arrived from the east and Crimea, bringing the total to 1485 (1039) from Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and 227 (222) from Crimea. The figures in brackets represent the totals residing within Transcarpathia at the end of August. There clearly has been a dramatic increase in the number of people fleeing from the fighting in the east. It is not clear whether these individuals are Transcarpathians who have returned or Ukrainians seeking to get as far away from the conflict as possible.
Economy
The economy is in dire straits. Local media report inflation reached 14.2% for August. Utility costs (telephone, water) are increasing whilst income remains stagnant. The limited amount of money available to organise the upcoming election is reported as a big issue for Transcarpathia.
In a wider context relating to the pending EU Agreement, a working group has been established to restore rail connections from Uzhgorod to Prague, Budapest and Romania. Another working group is look at increasing the number of border crossing points between Hungary and Transcarpathia, possibly reducing the spacing from ~35 km to about ~15 km. These changes would facilitate increased trade and tourist traffic.
Energy
Miroslav Lajcak, the Deputy Prime Minister of Slovakia spent two days in Transcarpathia discussing energy issues. Slovakia claims to be able to provide a reverse flow gas supply to Ukraine. However, Gazprom has reacted to this and other attempts at providing reverse supplies. It has reduced supply to Slovakia by 10%, it will reduce gas volumes supplied to Poland and Germany, and has increased the price of gas supplied to Hungary. This latter move should make gas transit from Hungary economically unprofitable. The difference in treatment by Russia of Hungary versus Poland, Slovakia and Germany probably reflects the different positions of the respective countries: Hungary a potential ally and trading partner at one end and Poland an implacable foe at the other. If this is the case, it is interesting that Germany falls on the side of Poland rather than Hungary.
In a further move, Lukoil has announced it is interested in buying the Transneft pipeline running through Transcarpathia. Transneft has lost $62.5 million over the last five years through theft of oil. The cost for acquiring Transneft is likely to be less than $150 million.
Mobilisation
The third phase of mobilization is very problematic country wide. The age limits for exemption are desperately high - 65 years for officers. Only 145 individuals were recruited from the Transcarpathian regions. People are simply ignoring the notices to report or fleeing the region. The authorities are trying to control this situation; the SBU is creating a database of every Ukrainian who has been captured in the east or who has gone missing. They are also monitoring internally displaced persons from the east and Crimea. The wives and mothers of conscripted soldiers are still continuing their protests, demanding that their men not be sent to the front. These protests are much smaller than earlier, booth in number and size of individual demonstrations.
The increased taxation supposedly to support the military in the east has generated 5 million UAH per month in Transcarpathia alone. This tax is based on a 1.5% levy on income and lottery winning, and excludes capital and property assets, so it affects the poorer levels of society in greater proportion, whilst the extremely wealth are relatively immune to its effects.
Politics
The main explicit political news relates to the forthcoming election. A number of local politicians are standing: Viktor Baloha District 69 around Mukachevo, Basil Petiovka District 72 around Tyachiv and Nicoletta Subs District 68 around Uzhgorod. Another politician, Istvan Gajdos, considers Ukraine to be at war making the holding of elections inappropriate. Consequently he is not standing for a major position.
Only Baloha appears prominently in news reports so far. He strongly supports the war in the east, and states that martial law should be declared if necessary. He also says this should be done for the benefit of the country, not to preserve the positions of people already in power. He has declared that money spent on political advertising would be better spent fighting the war. Consequently he has stated that he will donate all such money he receives to the military. More recently he has stated that the 'peace plan' is failing as the Ukrainian positions are being constantly shelled by the Russian-supported 'terrorists'. Consequently there can be no deals with Putin. His view is that there are two options i) full take over the east and wipe out all opposition, or ii) leave it totally, stop financing it and transfer the problem to Russia by defining new borders.
The sudden presence of Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch with pro-Russian views, in Uzhgorod raised some alarm in the local pro-regime camp, fearing he may be attempting to destabilise the region of behalf of Putin.
Propaganda
The usual propaganda activities are still operational. Collections, concerts and other similar events are used to raise funds for the actions in the east. The amounts involved are dwarfed by the amounts raised by the tax mentioned earlier, so the acts serve to provide a 'feel good' factor and possibly supply specific items to unofficial militias with local members. Local NGOs have been formed supposedly to further support and aid the troops. One group 'Movement to Support Transcarpathian Soldiers' was formed by a small group of local artists, media people and journalists. Their major activity seems to have been a press conference. Another group "Native Mukachevo" aims to support fighters from Mukachevo. Details are lacking so far, but they have the air of being entities used to raise the profile of those behind them.
More insidious events reflect the underlying promotion of a pure Ukrainian nation. Firstly a short report in a local online new outlet reports that 'contrary to stereotypes, some Roma soldiers will fight loyally for Ukraine'.
Secondly a local villager, Vladimir Golovchak, had the idea of creating the first children's battalion 'Falcon'. The membership includes children aged 2-10 years. The intent is to raise a patriotic spirit in these children. The associated YouTube video shows the children holding a Pravi Sektor flag central stage, with a Ukrainian flag off to one side.
Separatism
Despite an agreement between Poroshenko and the Hungarian Ethnic Alliance (KMKSZ), there will not be an autonomous Hungarian region in Transcarpathia. This precludes the formation of a Hungarian voting block. The Hungarian government supports the Transcarpathian Hungarian minority in their quest for autonomy. The Hungarian minority in the region have warned that separatism might become a real problem if things get worse in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian response has taken two forms. Firstly an NGO has been created to promote the idea that Hungarian life should move closer to the Ukrainian style. This will probably be as effective as a chocolate teapot.
Secondly, and more effectively, the Transcarpathian authorities are clamping down on all forms of activity that could be seen as supporting or proposing separatism. Local pro-Ukraine media report that once potential separatists have met investigators, the 'promptly fall in love with Ukraine'. The investigators do face problems, as those interviewed frequently claim their social media pages have been hacked or vandalised. There are four reported criminal cases of Rusyn separatism, one prominent person is named as Ivan Petrovtsiy. A second case is only identified by the surname - Sidor. One local resident from Uzhgorod has been sentenced to a 3 year jail term, followed by 1 year probation. The offense cited was 'calling for violent overthrow of constitutional order, formation of illegal paramilitaries in region'. This obviously could be applied to anyone proposing or taking part in another Maidan against the current regime.
The Transcarpathian local government has not disbanded the local Berkut, contrary to the Ukrainian law passed on 25 February. Members of the Pravi Sektor object to this, probably because it weakens their strategy of using violence to silence opposition.
It is clear that the Ukrainian regime fears more attempts at separatism, and possibly any dissenting voices whatsoever. For example, I have seen images of demonstrations in Mariupol before and after the start of the ATO. From these, it seems plausible that such dissent is suppressed rather having faded away. The 'before' image I have in mind shows a public square fully occupied with anti-regime protestors. The 'after' image shows the same square with a much smaller number of pro-regime supporters, taking up about 1/4 to 1/3 of the square. There are two other distinguishing factors; the dominance of Ukrainian symbols (flags flown or being worn) and a large number of buses parked alongside the square. No such buses were present in the first protest. One possible explanation is that someone (the local oligarch?) has gone to the expense of providing uniform PR material and bussing people in from outside the locality.
Transnistria
ATO
On September 10, the Transnistrian Prime Minister Evgeny Shevchuk signed a law requiring all organisations that have bunkers (air raid shelters ?) and other civil security facilities to prepare them for use. It is not clear whether this is in anticipation of a possible attack from Ukraine, Moldova or both. The Ukrainian Ambassador to Moldova has denied Kiev plans to attack Transnistria.
Economy
The Transnistrian economy is severely hampered by the blockade from Moldova and Ukraine. Most of the exports were destined for Russia or Europe, using Odessa as an exit port. This is now closed as a result of the actions by Ukraine. The Gagauzian region of Moldova also has substantial trade Russia and Turkey. It is alarmed by talk of Moldova rejoining ROmania. The Moldovan economy is also very dependent on Russia. It is claimed that ~30% of its GDP arises from money returned by Moldovan migrants to Russia. Russia is currently tightening up its position regarding migrants. Moldova also exports wine and apples to Russia. The viability of this trade will ma be severely affected when Moldova signs the Association Agreement with the UE.
Politics
Political groups in Transnistria has repeated their support of the DNR in their quest for liberation from fascism. In a 2006 referendum, more than 93% of Transnistrians wanted to join the Russian federation. The Russian response has been that this is difficult because there is no shared border.
The main political issue is the undefined legal status of Transnistria. The blockade by Moldova and Ukraine severely hampers the Transnistrian economy. Transnistria has deferred the forthcoming '5+2' talks until these issues are dealt with or included within the scope of the negotiations. The Transnistrian Head of Foreign Affairs met with the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Rubin and the US Ambassador to Moldova W H Moser. The state US position is it wants to the help OSCE mission to Moldova and the '5+2' group to overcome problems and achieve concrete results. Transnistria's position is the negotiation were stopped by Moldova in 2006, only to be restarted in 2011 after much effort especially by Russia to get the talks restarted. Transnistria's suspension of the talks is in response to the economic blockade imposed by Moldova. This has been made worse because Chisinau and Kiev now only allow Transnistrian exports to pass if they have been documented by Moldova. This imposes additional time and monetary costs on the affected goods. Transnistria's position is that it simply wants to run its foreign trade interdependently of Moldova. More recently, Moldovan customs officers at Tiraspol airport have started imposing overly intrusive examinations of the luggage of Transnistrian politicians.
The US has requested that Russia withdraw its peacekeeping troops from Transnistria. The basis for their demand is that the presence does not comply with the Combat Forces in Europe (CFE) agreement. Lavrov has rejected this blatant attempt to weaken Transnistria by stating that the West has not signed the document, so it has no meaning in this case. The US position is made more obvious by their demand that the OSCE mission needs unrestricted access to Transnistrian region because of rising tensions on Ukraine border. The conveniently skip over the fact that the tensions are the result of Ukraine's actions, not those of Transnistria.
Propaganda
One major strand of propaganda is that Russian troops in Transnistria will be used to attack Odessa as the basis for a unified Novorossian coastal zone. This ignores the reality that the peacekeeping force in Transnistria is a roughly equal mix of Transnistrian, Moldovan and Russian troops. If the Russian troops leave Transnistria, then pro-US forces will have little difficulty in overwhelming the Transnistrian forces.
The most amusing propaganda tale relates to the appearance of 'so-called green men' in Moldova, as reported by Moldovan counter-intelligence. These 'little green men' have managed somehow or other to mysteriously appear on Moldovan territory. They attempt to recruit young people as saboteurs, who are taught methods of disinformation, how to act in emergency situations, and how to handle small arms. These green men are, of course, not visible to the normal human eye, but are 'irrefutable evidence' that Transnistria is preparing for war and Russia is recruiting saboteurs.
Saturday, August 30, 2014
August 30th Transcarpathia and Transnistria SITREP by "Y"
Transcarpathia
29 Jul. NATO has sponsored a project involving Romanian and Ukrainian scientists to monitor river pollution on the Tisza river. This is a major source of drinking water for the region and passes through Uzhhord. This is a major town situated close to the border with Romania. This strikes me as an opportunity to insert SIS types into the region under NGO/environmentalist cover.
5 Aug. The head of the region, deputy Valeriy Lunchenko claimed there were a few dozen citizens of the Russian Federation inciting the local people to protest against mobilisation. Lunchenko claimed that mobilisation is not forced and all moblised persons are volunteers.
7 Aug. Reports of the protesters acting against mass military mobilisation in the Transcarpathia region are turning into a full scale uprising. Local residents are blocking the roads, stopping trains and are taking over the control of places of strategic importance. The town of Mukachevo is at the heart of the rebellion. Protesters have also taken actions in the Mukachevo region: villages of Chervenovo, Domboki and Strabichevo, in the Beregove region: villages of Gat and Muzhievo and four towns in the Hustsky region
19 Aug. 1500 Ukrainian troops sent to Transcarpathia to control possible separatist action forming a second front. The effect of this has been exacerbated by the arrival of a similar number of trained volunteers in the east.
20 Aug. More than 100 activists from Irshava district rallied near the Transcarpathian Regional Administration. One of their main demands was to enforce the district council decision whereby two-thirds of the deputies passed a motion of no confidence in the head of Irshava District State Administration, a member of the Svoboda party Vasyl Svichkar.
24 Aug. Kiev passes decree intended to popularize signs of Ukrainian patriotism and to prohibit the use of the coat of arms, flag and anthem of undemocratic regimes. In particular, totalitarian, self-proclaimed quasi-state formations, terrorist, separatist organizations or groups. This is obviously aimed at Novorossian symbology.
25 Aug. Migration Service of Ukraine acts in Transcarpathia to identify illegally residing foreign & stateless persons.
26 Aug. Transcarpathians from western Ukraine will join the resisistance in the International Rusyn Battalion of Lugansk Republic.
27 Aug. Reports from Delatyn that the 5th Battalion of the Carpathian defence force has deserted from from the front in the south east. This video shows a battle-scarred convoy en route presumably back to Transcarpathia.
Transnistria
10 Jul. An article in the New York times mentions that Strelkov, described as a former intelligence agent, fought in the post-Soviet conflicts in Transnistria, Serbia and Chechnya. I like their further description - "Mr. Strelkov, a native Muscovite whose real name is Igor Girkin, is a figure as mysterious as he is fearsome". Can we look forward to him reappearing in Transnistria in the near future? If the Novorossia story is ever filmed, will there be a rejuvenated Sean Connery playing his part saying "My name is Strelkov.... Igor Strelkov" in a soft Scottish-Russian accent? Stay tuned.
27 Jul. Ukraine starts construction of a large ditch 3.5 m wide and 2-3 m deep, along the whole border with Transnistria. The intent is to stop the movement of heavy military equipment and the movement of contraband goods. The US Senate adopted Resolution SR 500 in support of the territorial integrity of Moldova and the condemnation of Russian economic pressure on Moldova. It also calls for the EU to deepen political and economic integration with Moldova. Once more, the EU becomes the fall guy for US foreign policy with respect to Russia.
3 Aug. Reports of concern in Transnistria that Ukraine will attack Tiraspol, the capitol, in order to draw Russia into the conflict, being framed as the aggressor.
11 Aug. Transnistria anounces that it is not preparing to attack anyone, but it is ready to repel any aggression against it.
20 Aug. Transnistria's government just announced it was mobilizing its military from 21 August.
21 Aug. Transnistria mobilizes its army. All employees of state agencies will undergo combat training. Russian official visits region.
22 Aug. Following his meeting with Transnistria's leadership, the Russian vice-premier Dmitriy Rogozin noted that even at this very difficult time Russia will continue supporting its compatriots.
26 Aug. More American soldiers are spotted at a bar in Moldova. Keep in mind the military build up in Transnistria. Moldova proposes introducing legislation making it a criminal offence to promote 'separatism' and 'extremism'.
28 Aug. Ukraine has increased the scope of its existing regulations preventing the passage of Russian males aged 18-60 across the border with Transnistria to include children, women and elderly people.
Background:
The Wiki links (with obvious caveats) Transcarpathia, Zakarpatia oblast and Transnistria form a starting point. Given the complex ethography, history and politics of both regions, there are multiple interpretations of events, which must be borne in mind. Anonther source is the blog Springtime of Nations in which the author looks at the emergence of small states throughout the world, including seccession movements in the US. The interpetation of both regions seems to come from a conventional US/Western perspective, especially regarding foreign policy. He also considers the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which is another proxy for US/Russia conflict.
29 Jul. NATO has sponsored a project involving Romanian and Ukrainian scientists to monitor river pollution on the Tisza river. This is a major source of drinking water for the region and passes through Uzhhord. This is a major town situated close to the border with Romania. This strikes me as an opportunity to insert SIS types into the region under NGO/environmentalist cover.
5 Aug. The head of the region, deputy Valeriy Lunchenko claimed there were a few dozen citizens of the Russian Federation inciting the local people to protest against mobilisation. Lunchenko claimed that mobilisation is not forced and all moblised persons are volunteers.
7 Aug. Reports of the protesters acting against mass military mobilisation in the Transcarpathia region are turning into a full scale uprising. Local residents are blocking the roads, stopping trains and are taking over the control of places of strategic importance. The town of Mukachevo is at the heart of the rebellion. Protesters have also taken actions in the Mukachevo region: villages of Chervenovo, Domboki and Strabichevo, in the Beregove region: villages of Gat and Muzhievo and four towns in the Hustsky region
19 Aug. 1500 Ukrainian troops sent to Transcarpathia to control possible separatist action forming a second front. The effect of this has been exacerbated by the arrival of a similar number of trained volunteers in the east.
20 Aug. More than 100 activists from Irshava district rallied near the Transcarpathian Regional Administration. One of their main demands was to enforce the district council decision whereby two-thirds of the deputies passed a motion of no confidence in the head of Irshava District State Administration, a member of the Svoboda party Vasyl Svichkar.
24 Aug. Kiev passes decree intended to popularize signs of Ukrainian patriotism and to prohibit the use of the coat of arms, flag and anthem of undemocratic regimes. In particular, totalitarian, self-proclaimed quasi-state formations, terrorist, separatist organizations or groups. This is obviously aimed at Novorossian symbology.
25 Aug. Migration Service of Ukraine acts in Transcarpathia to identify illegally residing foreign & stateless persons.
26 Aug. Transcarpathians from western Ukraine will join the resisistance in the International Rusyn Battalion of Lugansk Republic.
27 Aug. Reports from Delatyn that the 5th Battalion of the Carpathian defence force has deserted from from the front in the south east. This video shows a battle-scarred convoy en route presumably back to Transcarpathia.
Transnistria
10 Jul. An article in the New York times mentions that Strelkov, described as a former intelligence agent, fought in the post-Soviet conflicts in Transnistria, Serbia and Chechnya. I like their further description - "Mr. Strelkov, a native Muscovite whose real name is Igor Girkin, is a figure as mysterious as he is fearsome". Can we look forward to him reappearing in Transnistria in the near future? If the Novorossia story is ever filmed, will there be a rejuvenated Sean Connery playing his part saying "My name is Strelkov.... Igor Strelkov" in a soft Scottish-Russian accent? Stay tuned.
27 Jul. Ukraine starts construction of a large ditch 3.5 m wide and 2-3 m deep, along the whole border with Transnistria. The intent is to stop the movement of heavy military equipment and the movement of contraband goods. The US Senate adopted Resolution SR 500 in support of the territorial integrity of Moldova and the condemnation of Russian economic pressure on Moldova. It also calls for the EU to deepen political and economic integration with Moldova. Once more, the EU becomes the fall guy for US foreign policy with respect to Russia.
3 Aug. Reports of concern in Transnistria that Ukraine will attack Tiraspol, the capitol, in order to draw Russia into the conflict, being framed as the aggressor.
11 Aug. Transnistria anounces that it is not preparing to attack anyone, but it is ready to repel any aggression against it.
20 Aug. Transnistria's government just announced it was mobilizing its military from 21 August.
21 Aug. Transnistria mobilizes its army. All employees of state agencies will undergo combat training. Russian official visits region.
22 Aug. Following his meeting with Transnistria's leadership, the Russian vice-premier Dmitriy Rogozin noted that even at this very difficult time Russia will continue supporting its compatriots.
26 Aug. More American soldiers are spotted at a bar in Moldova. Keep in mind the military build up in Transnistria. Moldova proposes introducing legislation making it a criminal offence to promote 'separatism' and 'extremism'.
28 Aug. Ukraine has increased the scope of its existing regulations preventing the passage of Russian males aged 18-60 across the border with Transnistria to include children, women and elderly people.
Background:
The Wiki links (with obvious caveats) Transcarpathia, Zakarpatia oblast and Transnistria form a starting point. Given the complex ethography, history and politics of both regions, there are multiple interpretations of events, which must be borne in mind. Anonther source is the blog Springtime of Nations in which the author looks at the emergence of small states throughout the world, including seccession movements in the US. The interpetation of both regions seems to come from a conventional US/Western perspective, especially regarding foreign policy. He also considers the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which is another proxy for US/Russia conflict.
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