by "Y"
Transcarpathia
ATO
Charitable events continue as a means of supplying aid to troops in the east. Returning troops from the 15th Mountain Infantry Battalion of the 128th Brigade have stated the prime need is for diesel generators, fuel, heaters, thermal underwear and winter clothing. Collections and other actions have raised funds of at least 41,000 UAH (~ $3000) for supplies such as canned food, fast food, coffee and tea. A group of Svoboda supporters have provided a Grand Cherokee Jeep for use in the ATO. This was used to transfer supplies to the front. The local regional coordinating committee has been disbanded, and replaced by volunteers, seemingly part of the 'lustration' process aimed at removing corruption and giving greater transparency.
The Transcarpathian authorities have applied to the Ukraine Ministry of Defense for funding to supply all military needs, especially winter clothing. The sum of 3.5 million UAH has been transferred to military budgets for the purchase of bullet-proof vests, helmets, military boots and warm clothes for up to 650 people. A further 1 million UAH has been allocated for communications equipment.
The reports relating to troop movements are mixed and confusing. One report notes that 38 security police have been sent to the east with another 8 to follow. Another report states that 50 local riot police officers will depart for the ATO zone to relieve others there. The supposed rotation of Border Guard officers to replace troops from 128th Brigade still has not taken place. The parents of these troops still at the front have started protests, stating they may take claims to the International Court of Justice if the rotation does not happen soon.
Some official casualty figures have appeared. The recent attacks at Donetsk resulted in the death of 7 troops with 9 wounded. A further 200 at least were lost at Ilovaisk. Poroshenko has reported that officially 967 Ukrainian troops have been killed to date. The Ukrainian Ambassador to the UN is reported as stating a further 700 troops and 1700 civilians are held by the separatists.
Officially 24 men from Transcarpathia have died in combat. The losses include one Lieutenant Colonel. four Captains and two Lieutenants, with the remainder a mix of NCOs and soldiers. The most recent fatality has been named - a 43 year old volunteer called Yuri Sokolachko, who served as an artillery spotter for the 128th Mechanized Brigade. The lost and survivors were honoured at a public ceremony in Uzhgorod.
Economy
The economic figures for the cost of the actions in the east are dire. Agricultural productivity to August is down 21.4% compared to August last year. The equivalent losses to July were 13%. The drop in industrial production appears to be a disastrous 97% in August compared to the previous month (i.e. an almost complete cessation of production, if the reports are accurate). Foreign investment to mid year has seen a drop of 75.4% compared to the previous year. Given these figures, the drop in exchange rate for the Hryvnia from 14.9 to about 13 to the US dollar seems surprising. This may reflect the effects of the government clamp down on currency outflow, or more likely, external support for the Hryvnia in order to make things seem better than they are.
Energy
Transcarpathia is important as a focus of gas pipelines between Ukraine and Europe, both for flows westwards, and for reverse flows eastwards that have become essential for Ukraine. There are three main sources of reverse flow, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland. The pipelines for these are capable of supplying 23, 17 and 5 million cubic metres of gas per day respectively. The Hungarian reverse flow has ceased in response to Russia's reduction in forward supply. The Hungarian President has stated that it has to put its own energy needs first. Slovakia has reported a 50% reduction in gas supplies, forcing it to reduce reverse flow. The resumption of supplies from Poland following the resolution of technical problems there will be welcomed by the Ukraine regime, but is of minor relevance given the supply figures above. It may be a sign of desperation that the Ukrainian gas corporation Naftogaz is reported to have signed a contract with Statoil of Norway for the supply of gas through Slovakia. The details of how this would work and how it would be financed have not been made public.
There is one extremely tiny piece of good news for Ukraine. An illicit small scale oil extraction facility has been detected and fixed. Inexplicable oil leaks were observed near an oil pipeline close to the border with Hungary. It appears that someone had tapped the pipe to extract possibly a few thousand gallons per day. Shoddy workmanship gave their game away.
As reported earlier, Ukrainian electricity exports have been hit. Published figures report a loss of 4.1% in the first eight months of this year compared to last year. This form of presentation of data may average out and mask any sudden dramatic loss arising from the recent devastation in the east.
Mobilisation
Earlier directives from the Ministry of Defense requiring military commissioners of districts, cities and regions to go to the front to relive troops have had no effect. The local commander Colonel Ivan Vasilovich said he has received no orders regarding this, but will comply when ordered to do so.
It is unlikely there will be a fourth stage of mobilisation. Poroshenko has stated that the potential for peace in the east has reduced the need for such actions. The only requirement is to enable rotation of the troops at the front. The third mobilisation in the Beregovo district of Transcarpathia only raised 50% of the eligible candidates. Following this, it has cancelled its planned fourth stage of mobilisation. The stated reasons include the number of protests against the mobilisation and the reluctance of civilians to perform military service. The looming elections probably have nothing to do with this what so ever.
Politics
The main political events are the recently endorsed lustration process and the forthcoming election.
A total of 75 candidates are standing the six electoral districts forming Transcarpathia. The great majority of the candidates are described as 'self nominated' rather than representing one of the major parties. A high proportion of these 'self nominated' candidates are probably members of Svoboda. Parties associated with Tymoshenko and Lyashko have candidates in all six districts. The party associated with Yatsenyuk has five candidates. The parties associated with Klitschko and Poroshenko have only one candidate each, in the Uzhgorod district. Given the use of 'self nomination' to hide political allegiance, these figures may under represent the effective political affiliations. Two candidates for the Pravi Sektor party were rejected by the Election Commission. Their response was that everyone should remember the fate of Yanukovich.
A group of three brothers - the so-called Baloha clan - are standing for election, one each in districts 69 (Mukachevo), 71 (Hust) and 73 (Vinogradov). All are described as 'self-nominated'. The Baloha brother standing for Mukachevo gets a lot of coverage in the Mukachevo press. He comes out with some memorable quotes. For example, "the only place the Communist Party can speak is in the SBU office". On plans to create a national army of 150,000 professionals with 500,000 reserves, he asks about the costs and where will the money come from. He is reported as saying "Sorry, friends, but this is called selective Masturbation". He views Poroshenko as a capable business man, but not a President. Local opinion suggests that two of the brothers will almost certainly win seats.
Hubal, the Head of the Regional State Authority has met with OSCE representatives to discuss the electoral process. He has stated that the main concern is transparency of the elections and that the RSA will not interfere in the process. The OSCE representatives reiterated that they are just observers and have no policing powers. OPORA, an NGO monitoring the process, lists 'irregularities' it comes across. These include multiple candidates with the same surname, damage to party billboards, non-compliant advertising and plagiarism of mandate text. The use of 'self-nomination' to mask party allegiance does not appear to be an 'irregularity'.
Poroshenko has finally signed the Lustration Law. The Ukrainian Attorney General has expressed the view that some provisions of the law may inconsistent with the Ukraine constitution and the requirements of international (specifically EU) law. There may be a large number of appeals lodged with the European Court of Human Rights. Lustration enthusiasts have been preempting final acceptance of the law by pressing individuals to resign. Hubal has said the Head of Regional TV should resign, whilst the Head and Deputy Head of the local Health Organisation have already been affected. A temporary replacement has taken over their position.
One problem for the enthusiasts is that the Law does not apply to MPs. Baloha says this allows a fifth column to remain in parliament. His view is that the law needs expanding and candidates should be required to say whether they support the law or not on their ballots.
An alternative view of the 'lustration' process is that "Officially, the Law 'On cleaning power' is intended to restore trust in government and lay the legal basis for the construction of a new system of government by European standards. Unofficially - it is to gather votes and divert the public from violent economic crisis, the Hryvnia depreciation and political power failures in the Crimea and in the East."
Other recently reported items of political news include the delay by the EU in processing the Free trade Agreement with Ukraine, which may not happen before the end of 2015. Baloha blames government corruption for the delay in the implementation of visa-free travel to the EU countries. An amnesty for illegally held guns has been announced for October. The stated purpose is to prevent criminals gaining access to these weapons.
Propaganda
At a recent charity event in Uzhgorod celebrating the birthday of the artist Ignatius Roscovich, alongside the usual cake and book stalls was a shooting game for all the family - shoot Putin using a bow and arrow.
In contrast to the usual propaganda about Russian forces attacking Mariupol, the destruction of an elite Russian marine unit near Debaltseve located at the crossroads between Donetsk and Lugansk, and claims of KAMAZ lorries full of 'Cargo 200' heading towards Russia, there is an hilariously desperate article about an ethnic Hungarian member of an international group fighting with the separatists against the regime forces in the east.
Separatism
The issues relating to the Hungarian minority continue unresolved. The Society of Hungarian Culture in Transcarpathia is reportedly intending to file a lawsuit with the European Court of Human Rights over the problems with the boundary of the 73rd district. The Central Election Commission has declined to recreate a majority district for Hungarian interests. A change of boundary of the 73rd district prior to the 2012 election was made in favour of a pro-Government candidate who won. This was at the expense of Hungarian interests.
The charity established by the right wing Hungarian Jobbik party has been declared illegal and the Hungarian MEP Bela Kovacs has been banned from entering the country. An analyst, Professor Sergay Fedak, has stated that the majority of ethnic Hungarians are against autonomy, and are more concerned with the economy and social services. The report gives no clue as to how these conclusions were reached.
A local report linked to a TV program discussing Hungarian and Rusyn separatism. It showed a small demonstration in Budapest where Transcarpathian flags were shown. The commentators stated that it was not known who was behind this. Other sections of the program referred to Petro Getsko, the Rusyn separatist. The style of the program clearly implied that Russian funding and connections were behind the calls for autonomy.
Following the tension about autonomy and the suspension of reverse gas flow, it is not surprising that Nuland has stepped in making comments stating that Hungary is supporting nationalism and attempting a 'rollback of democracy'. It looks like Orban may have become persona non-grata for the Indispensable Nation®.
Resources
Transcarpathian fragment of Ukrainian patchwork
Ukrainian Armed Forces
Transnistria (aka PMR) and Gagauzia
ATO
The Moldovan MP who visited Donbass has urged the Council of Europe (PACE) to launch an investigation into the war crimes carried out in Donbass.
About 60 people from Ukraine have sought refuge in Transnistria following the actions in the east.
Economy
Work continues on the proposal for an airport at Tiraspol. A commission has been established to look at the costs of lighting, communications and runway upgrades. The main problem however is political. Given the uncertain legal status of PMR, the consent of Moldova is needed before the proposal to proceed to reality.
Moldova is still reportedly not issuing export certificates for PMR goods. In response to a deteriorating economy, the PMR government is proposing to raise excise duties on tobacco, alcohol, some luxury and electrical goods from January 2015.
Moldovan farmers affected the proposed road between Tiraspol and Ribnita have been offered compensation for the loss of use of their land.
Should Moldova proceed with a Free trade agreement with Europe, the PMR government would want to see a separate document covering equivalent relationships with Transnistria.
Figures recently released indicate the significance to the Moldovan economy of the contribution of personal remittances from abroad. The monthly total for August was about $154 million. Of this, 39% came from Russia, 36% from Europe and 25% from the US. These remittances amount to 25-30% of Moldova's GDP. Therefore, the contribution from Moldovan migrants to Russia is about 10-12% of GDP.
Energy
One of the consequences of the Kiev regime's actions in the east has been a reduction in coal supply with a consequent reduction in the exportable electricity capacity. Moldova has seen a 20% reduction in electricity supplied from Ukraine. This has been offset by an increased supply from the PMR power station. Moldova imports 90% of electricity with about 60% normally from Ukraine and about 30% from the PMR.
Gagauzia officials have opened discussions of the implementation of a mechanism by which Russia offers first 500 cu m of gas at reduced cost to consumers in Gagauzia. Gagauzia wants the gas pipelines in its territory that are not on Moldovan books to be integrated into a network, allowing it to join the gas market with the Customs Union. The PMR government has stated it is ready to pay market rates for Russia gas subject to the resolution of the economic blockades imposed on it.
Politics
Moldova has issued a demand that Russian peacekeeping troops should leave Transnistria. Ukraine has also placed restrictions on the flow of goods to Russian contingent. Shevchuk, the President of the PMR, states that the tripartite peacekeeping troops should remain in place until the final resolution of the political position.
Propaganda
Shevchuk has stated that claims of buildup of PMR troops preparing for an attack against Ukraine are false. He regards these claims as an attempt by external political forces to organize or to provoke a conflict on the border with Transnistria. PMR has appealed to Ukraine and OSCE to discuss the problem. Shevchuk comments "by a strange coincidence, the OSCE in Chisinau for some reason does not support our initiative. That is strange. If the international organization confirmed the lack of military preparations, I think the tension would be minimised". He has also reiterated that the PMR has not sent any representatives to the Donbass region.
Separatism
Attempts at reunification of Moldova and Romania may lead to a final goodbye from Transnistria and Gagauzia. Rogozin has been reported stating the Russia will protect its citizens in PMR if Moldova repeats the 'Ukraine scenario'.
Citizens of Gagauzia have protested recent actions of the SBU. The SBU has arrested a number of young activists based on charges of treason and terrorism. A rally was held, attended by politicians, activists and parents of those arrested. In a poll, 98% of Gagauzians stated Gagauzia should become independent if Moldova reunites with Romania. Some analysts reported in Gagauzian press offer the view that Moscow may recognise the independence of PMR and Gagauzia if Moldova joins Romania. George Friedman, the president of STRATFOR, was in Chisinau recently promoting re-unification with Romania. He stated that it was 5 years too late for Moldova to join the EU. He claims that "Russia is a country in decline. Romania is on the rise" and that Moldovans "need shelter. Europe is an illusion. Russia is weak".
Resources
NATO eyes Transnistria
More blowback in the offing
Ukraine and Transnistria: A Troubled Borderland
Showing posts with label Transcarpathia and Transnistria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Transcarpathia and Transnistria. Show all posts
Monday, October 6, 2014
Monday, September 29, 2014
Transcarpathia and Transnistria SitRep 21 Sep - 27 Sep
by "Y"
Transcarpathia
ATO
The ad hoc local collections of funds and material for Transcarpathian police and military units continues. The local football league raised 7647 UAH, and a group of students raised sufficient for 200 pairs insulated rubber boots. Modern personal protection equipment funded through donations was supplied to a group of Transcarpathian police officers due to head to the east. Hubal, the recently appointed Head of the Transcarpathian Regional State Authority has stated that he wants to see strict accounting for the dissemination of the donations to ensure that the funds went to right people.
The 1.5% war tax has raised 1.3 million UAH locally. It was transferred to the budgets in August and September.
Citizens of the Hungarian city twinned with Uzhgorod donated 2 million HUF (~ $8100) to be given to 50 ethnic Hungarian families whose family members had been sent to the front.
The volunteer support group for the Carpathian Sich has delivered about 10 tons of aid per week to the front during September. This aid is for the benefit of Svoboda volunteers in the 128th Mountain Infantry Brigade, and those in the 24th, 25th and 95th Brigades.
130 soldiers of the Transcarpathian Defense Battalion have been sent to the front. Most of the Battalion remains in Transcarpathia, guarding strategically important posts. There are plans to increase the battalion manpower by 20%, presumably through further mobilisations. These mobilisations have proved increasingly ineffective, so one plan is to send existing military commissars to the front. The posts freed would then be taken by those who have recovered after being injured at the front.
Eight Transcarpathian citizens, including two ethnic Hungarians were reported killed. There was no information about when these deaths occurred and whether they are recent additions to earlier totals. The death and casualty figures released are very confusing as authors do not state time period or locality to which they apply. It is possible that the same cases are reported at widely different times. The exact figures probably will not be known until the Kiev government releases formal reports. They will have a strong incentive to under-report to minimise the scale of losses.
Compensation of 100,000 UAH (~ $7400) has been offered to 21 families of those injured in the fighting. In addition, land parcels are made available for victims or their surviving families. To date, 174 families have applied for such land, with 74 of the applications fulfilled. The land parcels are free for families whose relatives died in the fighting.
Following the cease fire, one Transcarpathian PoW was released this week. He noted that he had spent time clearing up the destroyed buildings in the area where he was held. It is reported that just one more Transcarpathian remains in the east as a PoW.
Economy
The major economic concern for the country is the collapse of the currency. Poroshenko has declared his intent to stop the slide and restrict currency flight.The driving factor is the state loans that have to be paid back in foreign currency ($ or Euro). The net foreign currency outflow is expected to be ~ $250 million for September.
The exchange rate has reached 14.90 UAH per US dollar against the Ukrainian government target of 12.95 UAH / $. Legislation has been introduced to restrict the foreign currency exchange limit for customers at retail banks to 3000 UAH (~ $200) daily. Other aspects include a tightening of the issue of foreign currency, and a temporary hold on withdrawal of dividends and money through sale of securities. Government Bonds remain an exception to these rules.
The most recent economic factor directly affecting ordinary people is the 10% increase in rail journey tickets from 1 October 2014.
Energy
The Ukrainian attack on the east has scored an own goal. The loss of coal from the east has reduced the amount of electricity that can be generated, limiting the space capacity available for export. This has an obvious knock-on effect on the already poor economic situation.
Ukraine claims to have received about 540 million cubic metres (cu m) of gas through the reverse flow pipeline into Transcarpathia since the start of September. The price quoted is $320-330 per thousand cu m. The average capacity for this period is about 25 million cu m per day, against a stated maximum capacity of 27 million cu m per day. Slovakia states that this maximum capacity will only be achievable from March 2015. Given the current quoted average is very close to the stated maximum which is not yet available, the supply figures should be treated with caution.
The Ukraine gas supply organisation has made a proposal that should control gas usage. It suggests there should be a single price for domestic, commercial and industrial use.. This would cause the price of gas for domestic use to rise to four times the current level. This is obviously a political time bomb with the election looming.
Russia's reaction to the reverse flow form Slovakia and Hungary has been to not that the current contracts do not allow for re-export of gas. After a meeting between Hungarian representatives and the head of Gazprom, Hungary has stopped the reverse flow through Transcarpathia for 'technical reasons'. Günther Oettinger, the Deputy Chairman of the European Commission has stated where Gazprom has no right to make operational decisions, reverse flow is possible. The main thing is not to violate conditions of the contract. He also notes it is essential that there be a trouble-free reverse gas flow for Ukraine.
As a side note, Hungary and Austria have stated that they have abandoned the South Stream solution, and tenders for pipeline construction will be sought.
Mobilisation
The latest figures suggest that about 2000-3000 people aged 18-25 should be recruited by the current phase of mobilisation in Transcarpathia. These figures include an estimated 300-400 ethnic Hungarians.
Politics
On the 21st, Baloha claimed that the Lustration (= purge) law already agreed was going to be rewritten to avoid action against what he claimed to be the most corrupt offices - the police and the security forces. On the 23rd, Vasyl Hubal, the new head of the Regional State Authority asked that all the civil servants and law enforcement officers who had served in the Yanukovich period to voluntarily resign. The affected leaders of these organisations should resign immediately. Critics rightly claimed that this seemed to be based on politics and not on lack of professionalism.
The Lustration Law was passed on the 25th awaiting signature by Poroshenko. It clauses state that an high ranking official from the Yanukovich period be excluded from service for 10 years. All areas of government are affected, including the military. People who worked for less than a year are excluded, as are those who went to the Maidan or quit on their own. Baloha proposed a lustration committee be set up comprising members of the public and deputies of local councils.
Baloha has made an intriguing claim about Crimea. He states that Crimea will become a real island for some time, with no communications with Russia, no water, gas, electricity or food supply. This will lead Putin to attempt to create a land corridor to Crimea. In order for Ukraine to forestall this, he said that negotiations should be started with the aim of providing services at average Ukraine prices and guarantees that food will be allowed through in return for the cessation of alleged repression of Tartars and Ukrainians in Crimea and guarantees involving the Russian Federation, the EU and the US that there will be no invasion from Crimea. Given that there is no repression and the RF has no desire to invade, this sounds like some kind of 'nice peninsula you got there, shame if something were to happen to it' scam.
The US is preparing to assist the election process, specifically to ensure the elections are honest. The Media Foundation of the US Embassy in Ukraine runs local roundtables for this purpose. The contributors to the roundtable are Government and NGO representatives from Kiev. The unit produces a newsletter outlining problems, such as five candidates with the same surname (Kovacs) in one constituency. Independent reporters suggest that this seems to be a phantom problem rather than evidence of collusion.
Whatever happens, the election promises to be very intense and very confusing, with lots of dirt thrown around. For example, there are allegations that the Baloha group is somehow connected to Putin / Medvedev. Ratushnyak, one opponent of the Baloha brothers clan, claims the brothers are preparing provocations against him and has requested protection from Poroshenko. The various parties are laying out their rules for cooperation. The head of the UDAR party declares there will no cooperation with Baloha, even though both are running as part of the Poroshenko bloc. The Popular Front party claims to represent real people rather than oligarchs. The National Front party candidate has been dismissed from the party for unknown reasons.
Propaganda
Ukrainians in Europe have rallied in support of Ukraine. One idea is a crowd-sourced set of T-shirts, with various designs shown on the website. Given the true state of Ukrainian political dialog, I think this particular design is most appropriate.
Yatsenyuk has been spouting about creating a wall along the border with Russia at enormous cost. Baloha correctly notes that Ukraine is not a small country like Israel, and it can't possibly control its borders in the same way. He states that the idea of constructing this wall is madness and the only way to ensure a strong country is through the willpower of the people and the leaders of the country. The latter point is probably a sly dig at the abilities of the current leadership.
In an act of irony, the residents of Mukachevo recently held celebrations at a memorial to the heroes and partisans of the Second World War who fought against fascism.
On 24 September, Moscow issued a statement requesting international investigation into mass graves found in areas occupied by Ukrainian troops and militia. By an amazing coincidence, on the 26th, reports appeared of three mass graves in the Slavyansk area, which has been in Ukrainian hands since early July. The investigation carried claims the individuals died early to mid June, when the area was in the hands of the separatists. Apparently, 12 of the individuals have been identified by name. Given these mass graves were found in three specific cemeteries, the most likely explanation is that these are Ukrainian soldiers who died in the fighting. The timing of this news release suggests an intent to muddy the waters in relation to the mass graves further south.
Separatism
The representative of the ethnic Hungarian group held a closed meeting to decide on their position. They have given up trying to get a clear Hungarian constituency and have opted to join the Petro Poroshenko bloc as the only remaining legal chance for local representation. None of the candidates for the Yatsenyuk block are local to Transcarpathia.
Transnistria (aka PMR)
ATO
Gregor Petrenko, a member of the Moldovan government paid a visit to Lugansk and the surrounding area in order to provide first hand background information for the Assembly of the Council of Europe. He stated that to describe it is an understatement to describe the situation there as a humanitarian disaster. He will present his findings to a PACE meeting in Strasbourg. He notes that the Kiev regime has repeated the mistakes of Moldovan government in attempting to use military force to resolve a political conflict.
Economy
The economic blockade by Moldova and Ukraine continues to affect the economy. In July, the government reduced the working week for state enterprises and deferred payment of wages. The President has issued a statement that arrears should be paid. The State water concern has accumulated massive debts through unpaid bills. The main problem area is the reluctance of people in agricultural areas to use water meters.
The Government has issued bonds for $13.5 million. These are set for 7, 14 and 31 days maturity, with per annum interest rates of 2%, 2.25% and 2.75% respectively.
Moldova resorts to unilateral blocking of export certificates for PMR agricultural produce. A complaint has been registered with the Russian Ambassador to Moldova.
The Government has ambitions to convert a disused military airfield near Tiraspol to civil use. It has a number of investors lined and has produced internal documents relating to the mandatory regulatory position for civil aviation. The main problem id the political one relating to the status of the PMR.
A second major project relates to the creation of a direct route between Tiraspol, the capital of PMR and Ribnita, a major town in the north. This route affects about 6.3 ha of land owned by Moldovan citizens, so there is the problem of compensation for any loss of use.
Energy
Bilateral discussions between Russia and Moldova have taken place regarding the gas supply problem. There will be no reverse flow from Romania until 2015 at the earliest. There was no consensus over the status of the next contract - should it be considered a new contract or a renewal of the old contract. The current price offered to Moldova is $374 per thousand cu m. They are looking for a $3-5 reduction in price. In view of the reverse flow problem, the Moldovan government is looking to allocate a budget of up to 2.1 billion lei ($146 million) to buy oil to cover any shortfall over winter.
Mobilisation
There is no explicit mobilisation in the PMR. A standard wound of quarterly recruitment for compulsory military service is due for the period 1 October to 31 December. Males aged 18-27 are eligible for military service, and the upper aged is extended to 30 for internal and border guard units. At the same time, those who have completed their conscription period will be released from service.
Politics
On 25th September, the PMR government called an emergency meeting of the JCC (the 5+2 body overseeing normalisation of the status of PMR). Such emergency meetings have to take place within 24 hours of their being called. The PMR request was based on systematic actions by Moldova to undermine progress at the point of approval of the agenda for a normal meeting. The actual troop levels in the peace-keeping force were mentioned - 402 from Russia, 492 from PMR, 355 from Moldova along with 10 Ukrainian observers.
As if on cue, on 26th September, Moldova issued a demand for the removal of the Russian peace keeping force, to be replaced by an international civil mission. It also stated that it had no plans to join NATO.
The PMR government continues trying to establish cooperation agreements with other states. Following the signing in July of a Memorandum of Cooperation on education issues, the PMR representatives met with a delegation from Russia to discuss education issues. The President of PMR met with a delegation from Germany to initiate bilateral cooperation over humanitarian issues and to update the German delegates on the status of position with Moldova. The President raised the issue of adverse unilateral actions taken by Moldova, e.g. the selective withholding of export certificates for PMR goods.
Along with Moldova, the PMR is modernising its international border crossing points, replacing old manual schemes with modern document processing facilities. This is a costly business. Moldova has outside financial assistance to help, while PMR has to fund the changes itself.
A one-day conference was held on 26 September in Chisinau. The subject of the conference was confidence building on both sides of the River Nistria. Of the 17 main speakers, two were from PMR and 4 were from Moldova. The rest were from the EU or European NGOs. It is possible that the large number of third party speakers will produce some practical ideas, but I suspect wider political influences will preclude real progress.
Sanctions
Russian reverse sanctions against Moldova have affected the PMR economy as exporters need to gain Moldovan approval prior to export. Following inspections, the Russian inspection agency has removed export restrictions on two PMR canning factories. One of these has a $5 million contract to supply canned food to Russia.
Transcarpathia
ATO
The ad hoc local collections of funds and material for Transcarpathian police and military units continues. The local football league raised 7647 UAH, and a group of students raised sufficient for 200 pairs insulated rubber boots. Modern personal protection equipment funded through donations was supplied to a group of Transcarpathian police officers due to head to the east. Hubal, the recently appointed Head of the Transcarpathian Regional State Authority has stated that he wants to see strict accounting for the dissemination of the donations to ensure that the funds went to right people.
The 1.5% war tax has raised 1.3 million UAH locally. It was transferred to the budgets in August and September.
Citizens of the Hungarian city twinned with Uzhgorod donated 2 million HUF (~ $8100) to be given to 50 ethnic Hungarian families whose family members had been sent to the front.
The volunteer support group for the Carpathian Sich has delivered about 10 tons of aid per week to the front during September. This aid is for the benefit of Svoboda volunteers in the 128th Mountain Infantry Brigade, and those in the 24th, 25th and 95th Brigades.
130 soldiers of the Transcarpathian Defense Battalion have been sent to the front. Most of the Battalion remains in Transcarpathia, guarding strategically important posts. There are plans to increase the battalion manpower by 20%, presumably through further mobilisations. These mobilisations have proved increasingly ineffective, so one plan is to send existing military commissars to the front. The posts freed would then be taken by those who have recovered after being injured at the front.
Eight Transcarpathian citizens, including two ethnic Hungarians were reported killed. There was no information about when these deaths occurred and whether they are recent additions to earlier totals. The death and casualty figures released are very confusing as authors do not state time period or locality to which they apply. It is possible that the same cases are reported at widely different times. The exact figures probably will not be known until the Kiev government releases formal reports. They will have a strong incentive to under-report to minimise the scale of losses.
Compensation of 100,000 UAH (~ $7400) has been offered to 21 families of those injured in the fighting. In addition, land parcels are made available for victims or their surviving families. To date, 174 families have applied for such land, with 74 of the applications fulfilled. The land parcels are free for families whose relatives died in the fighting.
Following the cease fire, one Transcarpathian PoW was released this week. He noted that he had spent time clearing up the destroyed buildings in the area where he was held. It is reported that just one more Transcarpathian remains in the east as a PoW.
Economy
The major economic concern for the country is the collapse of the currency. Poroshenko has declared his intent to stop the slide and restrict currency flight.The driving factor is the state loans that have to be paid back in foreign currency ($ or Euro). The net foreign currency outflow is expected to be ~ $250 million for September.
The exchange rate has reached 14.90 UAH per US dollar against the Ukrainian government target of 12.95 UAH / $. Legislation has been introduced to restrict the foreign currency exchange limit for customers at retail banks to 3000 UAH (~ $200) daily. Other aspects include a tightening of the issue of foreign currency, and a temporary hold on withdrawal of dividends and money through sale of securities. Government Bonds remain an exception to these rules.
The most recent economic factor directly affecting ordinary people is the 10% increase in rail journey tickets from 1 October 2014.
Energy
The Ukrainian attack on the east has scored an own goal. The loss of coal from the east has reduced the amount of electricity that can be generated, limiting the space capacity available for export. This has an obvious knock-on effect on the already poor economic situation.
Ukraine claims to have received about 540 million cubic metres (cu m) of gas through the reverse flow pipeline into Transcarpathia since the start of September. The price quoted is $320-330 per thousand cu m. The average capacity for this period is about 25 million cu m per day, against a stated maximum capacity of 27 million cu m per day. Slovakia states that this maximum capacity will only be achievable from March 2015. Given the current quoted average is very close to the stated maximum which is not yet available, the supply figures should be treated with caution.
The Ukraine gas supply organisation has made a proposal that should control gas usage. It suggests there should be a single price for domestic, commercial and industrial use.. This would cause the price of gas for domestic use to rise to four times the current level. This is obviously a political time bomb with the election looming.
Russia's reaction to the reverse flow form Slovakia and Hungary has been to not that the current contracts do not allow for re-export of gas. After a meeting between Hungarian representatives and the head of Gazprom, Hungary has stopped the reverse flow through Transcarpathia for 'technical reasons'. Günther Oettinger, the Deputy Chairman of the European Commission has stated where Gazprom has no right to make operational decisions, reverse flow is possible. The main thing is not to violate conditions of the contract. He also notes it is essential that there be a trouble-free reverse gas flow for Ukraine.
As a side note, Hungary and Austria have stated that they have abandoned the South Stream solution, and tenders for pipeline construction will be sought.
Mobilisation
The latest figures suggest that about 2000-3000 people aged 18-25 should be recruited by the current phase of mobilisation in Transcarpathia. These figures include an estimated 300-400 ethnic Hungarians.
Politics
On the 21st, Baloha claimed that the Lustration (= purge) law already agreed was going to be rewritten to avoid action against what he claimed to be the most corrupt offices - the police and the security forces. On the 23rd, Vasyl Hubal, the new head of the Regional State Authority asked that all the civil servants and law enforcement officers who had served in the Yanukovich period to voluntarily resign. The affected leaders of these organisations should resign immediately. Critics rightly claimed that this seemed to be based on politics and not on lack of professionalism.
The Lustration Law was passed on the 25th awaiting signature by Poroshenko. It clauses state that an high ranking official from the Yanukovich period be excluded from service for 10 years. All areas of government are affected, including the military. People who worked for less than a year are excluded, as are those who went to the Maidan or quit on their own. Baloha proposed a lustration committee be set up comprising members of the public and deputies of local councils.
Baloha has made an intriguing claim about Crimea. He states that Crimea will become a real island for some time, with no communications with Russia, no water, gas, electricity or food supply. This will lead Putin to attempt to create a land corridor to Crimea. In order for Ukraine to forestall this, he said that negotiations should be started with the aim of providing services at average Ukraine prices and guarantees that food will be allowed through in return for the cessation of alleged repression of Tartars and Ukrainians in Crimea and guarantees involving the Russian Federation, the EU and the US that there will be no invasion from Crimea. Given that there is no repression and the RF has no desire to invade, this sounds like some kind of 'nice peninsula you got there, shame if something were to happen to it' scam.
The US is preparing to assist the election process, specifically to ensure the elections are honest. The Media Foundation of the US Embassy in Ukraine runs local roundtables for this purpose. The contributors to the roundtable are Government and NGO representatives from Kiev. The unit produces a newsletter outlining problems, such as five candidates with the same surname (Kovacs) in one constituency. Independent reporters suggest that this seems to be a phantom problem rather than evidence of collusion.
Whatever happens, the election promises to be very intense and very confusing, with lots of dirt thrown around. For example, there are allegations that the Baloha group is somehow connected to Putin / Medvedev. Ratushnyak, one opponent of the Baloha brothers clan, claims the brothers are preparing provocations against him and has requested protection from Poroshenko. The various parties are laying out their rules for cooperation. The head of the UDAR party declares there will no cooperation with Baloha, even though both are running as part of the Poroshenko bloc. The Popular Front party claims to represent real people rather than oligarchs. The National Front party candidate has been dismissed from the party for unknown reasons.
Propaganda
Ukrainians in Europe have rallied in support of Ukraine. One idea is a crowd-sourced set of T-shirts, with various designs shown on the website. Given the true state of Ukrainian political dialog, I think this particular design is most appropriate.
Yatsenyuk has been spouting about creating a wall along the border with Russia at enormous cost. Baloha correctly notes that Ukraine is not a small country like Israel, and it can't possibly control its borders in the same way. He states that the idea of constructing this wall is madness and the only way to ensure a strong country is through the willpower of the people and the leaders of the country. The latter point is probably a sly dig at the abilities of the current leadership.
In an act of irony, the residents of Mukachevo recently held celebrations at a memorial to the heroes and partisans of the Second World War who fought against fascism.
On 24 September, Moscow issued a statement requesting international investigation into mass graves found in areas occupied by Ukrainian troops and militia. By an amazing coincidence, on the 26th, reports appeared of three mass graves in the Slavyansk area, which has been in Ukrainian hands since early July. The investigation carried claims the individuals died early to mid June, when the area was in the hands of the separatists. Apparently, 12 of the individuals have been identified by name. Given these mass graves were found in three specific cemeteries, the most likely explanation is that these are Ukrainian soldiers who died in the fighting. The timing of this news release suggests an intent to muddy the waters in relation to the mass graves further south.
Separatism
The representative of the ethnic Hungarian group held a closed meeting to decide on their position. They have given up trying to get a clear Hungarian constituency and have opted to join the Petro Poroshenko bloc as the only remaining legal chance for local representation. None of the candidates for the Yatsenyuk block are local to Transcarpathia.
Transnistria (aka PMR)
ATO
Gregor Petrenko, a member of the Moldovan government paid a visit to Lugansk and the surrounding area in order to provide first hand background information for the Assembly of the Council of Europe. He stated that to describe it is an understatement to describe the situation there as a humanitarian disaster. He will present his findings to a PACE meeting in Strasbourg. He notes that the Kiev regime has repeated the mistakes of Moldovan government in attempting to use military force to resolve a political conflict.
Economy
The economic blockade by Moldova and Ukraine continues to affect the economy. In July, the government reduced the working week for state enterprises and deferred payment of wages. The President has issued a statement that arrears should be paid. The State water concern has accumulated massive debts through unpaid bills. The main problem area is the reluctance of people in agricultural areas to use water meters.
The Government has issued bonds for $13.5 million. These are set for 7, 14 and 31 days maturity, with per annum interest rates of 2%, 2.25% and 2.75% respectively.
Moldova resorts to unilateral blocking of export certificates for PMR agricultural produce. A complaint has been registered with the Russian Ambassador to Moldova.
The Government has ambitions to convert a disused military airfield near Tiraspol to civil use. It has a number of investors lined and has produced internal documents relating to the mandatory regulatory position for civil aviation. The main problem id the political one relating to the status of the PMR.
A second major project relates to the creation of a direct route between Tiraspol, the capital of PMR and Ribnita, a major town in the north. This route affects about 6.3 ha of land owned by Moldovan citizens, so there is the problem of compensation for any loss of use.
Energy
Bilateral discussions between Russia and Moldova have taken place regarding the gas supply problem. There will be no reverse flow from Romania until 2015 at the earliest. There was no consensus over the status of the next contract - should it be considered a new contract or a renewal of the old contract. The current price offered to Moldova is $374 per thousand cu m. They are looking for a $3-5 reduction in price. In view of the reverse flow problem, the Moldovan government is looking to allocate a budget of up to 2.1 billion lei ($146 million) to buy oil to cover any shortfall over winter.
Mobilisation
There is no explicit mobilisation in the PMR. A standard wound of quarterly recruitment for compulsory military service is due for the period 1 October to 31 December. Males aged 18-27 are eligible for military service, and the upper aged is extended to 30 for internal and border guard units. At the same time, those who have completed their conscription period will be released from service.
Politics
On 25th September, the PMR government called an emergency meeting of the JCC (the 5+2 body overseeing normalisation of the status of PMR). Such emergency meetings have to take place within 24 hours of their being called. The PMR request was based on systematic actions by Moldova to undermine progress at the point of approval of the agenda for a normal meeting. The actual troop levels in the peace-keeping force were mentioned - 402 from Russia, 492 from PMR, 355 from Moldova along with 10 Ukrainian observers.
As if on cue, on 26th September, Moldova issued a demand for the removal of the Russian peace keeping force, to be replaced by an international civil mission. It also stated that it had no plans to join NATO.
The PMR government continues trying to establish cooperation agreements with other states. Following the signing in July of a Memorandum of Cooperation on education issues, the PMR representatives met with a delegation from Russia to discuss education issues. The President of PMR met with a delegation from Germany to initiate bilateral cooperation over humanitarian issues and to update the German delegates on the status of position with Moldova. The President raised the issue of adverse unilateral actions taken by Moldova, e.g. the selective withholding of export certificates for PMR goods.
Along with Moldova, the PMR is modernising its international border crossing points, replacing old manual schemes with modern document processing facilities. This is a costly business. Moldova has outside financial assistance to help, while PMR has to fund the changes itself.
A one-day conference was held on 26 September in Chisinau. The subject of the conference was confidence building on both sides of the River Nistria. Of the 17 main speakers, two were from PMR and 4 were from Moldova. The rest were from the EU or European NGOs. It is possible that the large number of third party speakers will produce some practical ideas, but I suspect wider political influences will preclude real progress.
Sanctions
Russian reverse sanctions against Moldova have affected the PMR economy as exporters need to gain Moldovan approval prior to export. Following inspections, the Russian inspection agency has removed export restrictions on two PMR canning factories. One of these has a $5 million contract to supply canned food to Russia.
Sunday, September 21, 2014
Transcarpathia and Transnistria SitRep 14 Sep - 20 Sep
by "Y"
Transcarpathia
ATO
More than one hundred Zakarpattya Border Guards were sent to front in the east. Groups photographs taken at the leaving parade show the extremes the Ukrainians have resorted to. The members are not of prime military age, are generally older adults. Their physique is very variable, including a significant proportion of extremes. The recruits are reported to have been given 2 weeks training.
Four prisoners of war were returned to Transcarpathia as a result of the cease fire. These were members of the 51st Mechanized Brigade and were in good physical shape. They were captured near Ilovaisk on 24 August. A further two are due to be repatriated in the near future.
Volunteer collections for materials and supplies to be sent to the front in support of the Transcarpathian troops still are held. Some supplies are handed over to the Transcarpathian Border Guard members before they leave for the front. Others are been delivered by a local coordinator. The supplies are taken by private van for distribution at Pisk near Donetsk. To date, four such deliveries have been made.
Bishop Milan Shashik confirmed that parishioners of the Greek-Catholic church in Mukachevo donated funds sufficient for an ambulance to be bought and sent to the front. Others have constructed and donated lightweight stretchers. Further voluntary support on behalf of Transcarpathian members of 51st Mechanised Brigade raised about 40,000 UAH for food and clothing and 15,000 UAH for computers and printers. Canada provided kevlar helmets and flak jackets for those departing for the front. It is not clear whether this donation derives from the Canadian government or from Ukrainians residing in Canada. The electoral candidate Viktor Baloha claims to have donated an armoured van.
Finally, this week a further 19 refugees have arrived from the east and Crimea, bringing the total to 1503 (1485) from Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and 228 (227) from Crimea. The figures in brackets represent the totals residing within Transcarpathia at the end of August. This weekly total is much less than the average of about 240 refugees for the first two weeks of September. Whilst this may indicate that people are still leaving despite the cease fire, there is no indication of how long it took them (and hence the departure date) to travel to Transcarpathia.
The Ukrainian government is reported to have provided 257 million UAH for the families of 423 fallen soldiers. It remains to be seen whether the government can continue this level of financial support once the true figure of losses become visible.
Economy
Local reports illustrate the dire straits of the economy. Laws relating to recording currency conversion transactions at banks are being changed. These changes will require some transactions to be reported daily to central authorities rather than monthly. This reflects concerns about capital flight. The government is promoting 'War Bonds' which offer a 7% return over two years in an attempt to raise money quickly. The so-called 'war tax' has been extended until 2016, which says something about the government's expectation for peace.
Further price increases have been announced, including 3% increase on fuel tax and locally increased charges for waste disposal starting in 20015.
Proposals for integrating local rail networks into the systems of adjacent EU countries have focussed on 750 mm gauge and 1520 mm gauge lines in Transcarpathia. Reinstatement costs have forced the committee to focus on just the 750 mm tourist lines.
Energy
The local government has given details of the implications of a decree limiting the amount of gas available over the coming winter. It is responsible for ensuring compliance and aims to promote energy conservation and use of renewable energy.
Gazprom has reduced the energy flow through Uzhgorod corridor to the minimum contract values in response to a proposal for reverse flow from Slovakia to Ukraine.
Mobilisation
Opposition to the mobilisation process continues. Representatives of the Slovak population protest against Slovakian men being sent to ATO. Ivan Latko, president of the Slovak Association of Uzhgorod stated "Our youth does not want to fight and die in eastern Ukraine. We believe that the Ukrainian government does not make substantive action in order to stop the war".
Local media reports the intent to create a battalion of female volunteers. So far, 20 women have volunteered. The have received a one week training course, focussing on stripping and reassembling a rifle, elementary tactics and practice in a local wooded area. The training is provided by Pravi Sektor members. It is not clear that these tutors have actual military experience at the front.
Politics
The lustration process initiated by the Poroshenko regime is under way. This process excludes individuals with a questionable political past from further political activity. The intent is probably to remove anyone who would oppose integration within the EU, the austerity measure required by the IMF and anyone on a Pravi Sektor blacklist.
Locally, Valeriy Lenchenko, Chairman of the Transcarpathian regional state administration has been dismissed. Others affected appear to include Viktor Lukach, Deputy head of infrastructure, utilities, construction, Roman Shnitser, head of the Department of Health and Marianna Gag Director of the Department of Education.
Viktor Baloha, a candidate in the pending election is showing his colours. He stated that "First Putin threatened to take Kiev within two weeks. Europe remained silent and made us sign the 'Minsk Covenant'. Now Putin promises to restore the 'Iron Curtain' within two days. If Europe is silent this time, the next threat from Putin will be to take Berlin and Madrid, and from there to Washington DC, not far away." He refers to Russians as "Asian savages". This obvious blatant fear-mongering bears no relation to reality. It will be very interesting to see how effective it is.
The Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made a visit to the region. The only public information refers to a meeting at the Transcarpathian Hungarian Institute to commemorate the opening of a refurbished building.
Propaganda
Members of the Carpathian Sich, a founder group of Pravi Sektor, forming part of the 5th Battalion Ukrainian Volunteer Corps, along with 93th Mechanized Brigade and the "Dnepr-1" battalion have been fighting near Pisky immediately west of Donetsk airport.
One member of the Carpathian Sich has produced an address to the Transcarpathians, stating "To win the war, you must first win the internal war - in the minds and hearts of people. Only then will we be able to overcome external Kremlin enemy. The first front - ideological - frankly we have lost, but the fight is not all war, and we are firmly focused on revenge. For friends, for family. For hunger, oppression, destruction, shootings. Everything will come in its own retribution. The Russian Federation is a parasite that is constantly trying to expand its territory at the expense of other peoples and other States at any cost. She is war, destruction, death" ... "its control lies in hypocrisy, meanness, it is being professionally trained to zombify". This is a classic example of projection. He (presumably) notes in tones of resentment that the group has to rely on the regular military for weapons.
Promoters of the Transcarpathian child battalion 'Falcon' have released a video showing a group of children, aged 2-10 years singing "Glory to Ukraine. Glory to its heroes. Death to moskals! Ukraine is above everything. The East and the West are together".
Seven Transcarpathian soldiers, mostly officers, have been posthumously awarded title 'Honorary citizen of Uzhgorod' for their personal courage and heroism in defending sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Separatism
The discontent felt by the Hungarian speaking citizens in Transcarpathia is still present, expressed at a low level. Vasily Brenzovich, who is seeking parliamentary mandate, noted that there is now no representation for Transcarpathian Hungarians in the Ukrainian Parliament. The only way this can be gained is through a party list, the block of Petro Poroshenko. He does not accept this and propose continuation of action for representation of minority rights in the European Court of Human Rights.
In contrast, Laszlo Brenzovics, president of the Hungarian Ethnic Alliance (KMKSZ) said that it was a difficult decision to KMKSZ to adopt the Poroshenko's party bid. Given the current very serious and crucial situation in Ukraine, it is important that the Hungarians in Transcarpathia have control over their own development of the situation. The internal debate is due to be resolved in a closed meeting of the KMKSZ.
Transnistria
ATO
Whilst the Ukrainian regime has placed more troops at Bolgrad, close to the Moldova/Transistria/Ukraine border supposedly because of risks raised by Transnistria, the Ukraine ambassador to Moldova says Ukraine will never attack Transnistria. He states that Transnistrian comments about an economic blockade are propaganda.
The modern day Stranglelove, General Breedlove, is stirring things. He claims that NATO needs a regulatory framework to protect non-member countries given that Russia may conduct military operations in Moldova and Transnistria. He also claims that "In the last 12 years we have been trying to become partners with Russia". Maybe placing a missile defence system in Poland, allegedly to protect the west from Iranian missiles, was seen by Russia for what it is - protection for a pre-emptive US nuclear first strike, thereby destroying nuclear deterrence.
Economy
Following an outbreak of cutaneous anthrax in Cahul, south-west Moldova, Transnistria has introduced extra check on cattle imported from Moldova.
Inflation is reducing slightly, with some evidence for reducing food prices dropping. The annual inflation figure is expected to be about 4%.
A Russian trade delegation has visited Transnistria to discuss mechanisms to promote the sale of Transnistrian goods in Russia. The delegation subsequently visited Gagauzia.
The Transnistrian government has reacted to negative economic trends. It aims to generate a stable transparent tax system for small and medium businesses allowing them to plan for the short-term. The proposed introduction of VAT proved controversial. A proposal to introduce a tax of about 1.5% for the renovation and upgrade of the gas infrastructure was also rejected.
Energy
Gazprom has reduced the energy flow through Transnistrian corridor resulting in a 5% drop in supplies to Romania. This is in response to a proposal for reverse flow from Romania to Moldova.
Politics
Andre Sfonov, a former Minister of Education and now political analyst, opposes the current policies of Yevgeny Shevchuk, leader of Transistira. Safonov states that it is not appropriate to concentrate power in times of difficulty. He regards the government as incompetent and proposes that they should resign immediately. Shevchuk has initiated legislation to amend constitution, obliging deputies to work on a permanent basis, introduced changes which complicate the procedure for impeachment of President, whilst simplifying dissolution of armed forces.
The EU Delegation to Moldova has stated that minorities (e.g. those in the pro-Russian autonomous region of Gagauzia) should not be worried about Moldova's association with EU. The Council of Europe representative met with the Transnistria Minister of Foreign Affairs, Igor Shornikov. They discussed partnership projects such as the development of media, civil sector, higher education, protection of cultural heritage and human rights.
Gagauzia and Transnist5ria have separately signed agreements of cooperation with Russian oblasts. Gagauzia signed a document with Nizhn Novgorod, covering trade, technological and humanitarian issues. Transnistria signed Memorandum of Cooperation with Archangelsk covering agriculture, light industry and tourism.
A ministerial delegation from Northern Ireland made a second visit to Transnistria in order to get first hand information about the status talks. The Transnistrian Foreign Minister noted some slight progress had been made - resumption of trade traffic through Transnistria, removal by Russian specialists of a dangerous disused cable car linking both sides of the Dniester river and resolution of some movement problems for people crossing into Moldova. Complications include Moldovan attempts to raise criminal charges against Transnistrian officials, and economic pressure from Moldova.
There has been no progress on the Joint Control Commission to resolve the status of Transnistria. Both sides have agreed to the inclusion of 25 issues on the draft agenda. However, the next meeting of the JCC has been cancelled, with both sides blaming each other, unwilling to compromise over differences.
Propaganda
The 400 strong contingent of Russian troops present as part of the long-established Moldovan/transnistrian/Russian peace-keeping force, took part in an annual training exercise. Tasks included the assembly of pontoon bridges across a river. It remains to be seen to what extent this is projected as i) an invasion of new troops and ii) preparation for war.
The Guardian, a UK 'newspaper', has released an article about Transnistria - "One secret policeman each: life in Fortress Transnistria". It includes a trailer of the video with an opening caption 'Pridnestrovie is a small part of Moldova with population 500,000'. The Guardian writes "What is it like to live in a state that hardly anyone recognises? Secret police, central planning and the ever-present face of Russian-backed strongman Igor Smirnov". These comments set the tone. Secret police - check. Central planning - check. Russian-backed - check. Strongman - check. Interestingly, they use the Russian name Pridnestrovie rather than the Romanian/Moldovan name.
Resources
A BBC video takes a similar line to the Fortress piece promoted by the Guardian. It raises one parallel with Ukraine; most of the industry originally in Moldova was located in the east of the country and now lies in Transnistria.
A third video 'The Renegade province fuelling tensions between Russia and Moldova' also focusses on the porous border with Ukraine, and alleged weapons trading, including so-called weapons of mass destruction. This latter story appears to have originated with mysterious documents that just happened to come into the hands of Oazu Nantoi, a former Moldovan government official and head of a Moldovan NGO. These documents allegedly describe 38 Alazan weather-control rockets modified to carry radioactive material intended to track clouds. The original source for the above report appears to be Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (i.e. US sponsored BS) These alleged rockets conveniently become known as 'dirty bomb-type missiles'. A later report links these same (non existent?) rockets to Zaqarwi and al Qaeda.
An alternative outlook, that gets away from the blatant propaganda of the Guardian and BBC pieces, is provided by Lada Ray. Her website is rather quirky, but she offers several videos related to this part of the work. One in particular relates to Transnistria, in which she presents a first hand, personal, often humorous and human view of the region. She reports on how dependent Moldova is on money sent to it by legal and illegal Moldovan migrant workers in Russia and the EU (~30% of GDP is quoted). Her predictions on the other hand ...
Jeroen Akkermans, the RTL News photographer who made the invaluable photographic records of the debris of the MH17 incident, has an album of photographs of Transnistria taken in 2010.
Transcarpathia
ATO
More than one hundred Zakarpattya Border Guards were sent to front in the east. Groups photographs taken at the leaving parade show the extremes the Ukrainians have resorted to. The members are not of prime military age, are generally older adults. Their physique is very variable, including a significant proportion of extremes. The recruits are reported to have been given 2 weeks training.
Four prisoners of war were returned to Transcarpathia as a result of the cease fire. These were members of the 51st Mechanized Brigade and were in good physical shape. They were captured near Ilovaisk on 24 August. A further two are due to be repatriated in the near future.
Volunteer collections for materials and supplies to be sent to the front in support of the Transcarpathian troops still are held. Some supplies are handed over to the Transcarpathian Border Guard members before they leave for the front. Others are been delivered by a local coordinator. The supplies are taken by private van for distribution at Pisk near Donetsk. To date, four such deliveries have been made.
Bishop Milan Shashik confirmed that parishioners of the Greek-Catholic church in Mukachevo donated funds sufficient for an ambulance to be bought and sent to the front. Others have constructed and donated lightweight stretchers. Further voluntary support on behalf of Transcarpathian members of 51st Mechanised Brigade raised about 40,000 UAH for food and clothing and 15,000 UAH for computers and printers. Canada provided kevlar helmets and flak jackets for those departing for the front. It is not clear whether this donation derives from the Canadian government or from Ukrainians residing in Canada. The electoral candidate Viktor Baloha claims to have donated an armoured van.
Finally, this week a further 19 refugees have arrived from the east and Crimea, bringing the total to 1503 (1485) from Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and 228 (227) from Crimea. The figures in brackets represent the totals residing within Transcarpathia at the end of August. This weekly total is much less than the average of about 240 refugees for the first two weeks of September. Whilst this may indicate that people are still leaving despite the cease fire, there is no indication of how long it took them (and hence the departure date) to travel to Transcarpathia.
The Ukrainian government is reported to have provided 257 million UAH for the families of 423 fallen soldiers. It remains to be seen whether the government can continue this level of financial support once the true figure of losses become visible.
Economy
Local reports illustrate the dire straits of the economy. Laws relating to recording currency conversion transactions at banks are being changed. These changes will require some transactions to be reported daily to central authorities rather than monthly. This reflects concerns about capital flight. The government is promoting 'War Bonds' which offer a 7% return over two years in an attempt to raise money quickly. The so-called 'war tax' has been extended until 2016, which says something about the government's expectation for peace.
Further price increases have been announced, including 3% increase on fuel tax and locally increased charges for waste disposal starting in 20015.
Proposals for integrating local rail networks into the systems of adjacent EU countries have focussed on 750 mm gauge and 1520 mm gauge lines in Transcarpathia. Reinstatement costs have forced the committee to focus on just the 750 mm tourist lines.
Energy
The local government has given details of the implications of a decree limiting the amount of gas available over the coming winter. It is responsible for ensuring compliance and aims to promote energy conservation and use of renewable energy.
Gazprom has reduced the energy flow through Uzhgorod corridor to the minimum contract values in response to a proposal for reverse flow from Slovakia to Ukraine.
Mobilisation
Opposition to the mobilisation process continues. Representatives of the Slovak population protest against Slovakian men being sent to ATO. Ivan Latko, president of the Slovak Association of Uzhgorod stated "Our youth does not want to fight and die in eastern Ukraine. We believe that the Ukrainian government does not make substantive action in order to stop the war".
Local media reports the intent to create a battalion of female volunteers. So far, 20 women have volunteered. The have received a one week training course, focussing on stripping and reassembling a rifle, elementary tactics and practice in a local wooded area. The training is provided by Pravi Sektor members. It is not clear that these tutors have actual military experience at the front.
Politics
The lustration process initiated by the Poroshenko regime is under way. This process excludes individuals with a questionable political past from further political activity. The intent is probably to remove anyone who would oppose integration within the EU, the austerity measure required by the IMF and anyone on a Pravi Sektor blacklist.
Locally, Valeriy Lenchenko, Chairman of the Transcarpathian regional state administration has been dismissed. Others affected appear to include Viktor Lukach, Deputy head of infrastructure, utilities, construction, Roman Shnitser, head of the Department of Health and Marianna Gag Director of the Department of Education.
Viktor Baloha, a candidate in the pending election is showing his colours. He stated that "First Putin threatened to take Kiev within two weeks. Europe remained silent and made us sign the 'Minsk Covenant'. Now Putin promises to restore the 'Iron Curtain' within two days. If Europe is silent this time, the next threat from Putin will be to take Berlin and Madrid, and from there to Washington DC, not far away." He refers to Russians as "Asian savages". This obvious blatant fear-mongering bears no relation to reality. It will be very interesting to see how effective it is.
The Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made a visit to the region. The only public information refers to a meeting at the Transcarpathian Hungarian Institute to commemorate the opening of a refurbished building.
Propaganda
Members of the Carpathian Sich, a founder group of Pravi Sektor, forming part of the 5th Battalion Ukrainian Volunteer Corps, along with 93th Mechanized Brigade and the "Dnepr-1" battalion have been fighting near Pisky immediately west of Donetsk airport.
One member of the Carpathian Sich has produced an address to the Transcarpathians, stating "To win the war, you must first win the internal war - in the minds and hearts of people. Only then will we be able to overcome external Kremlin enemy. The first front - ideological - frankly we have lost, but the fight is not all war, and we are firmly focused on revenge. For friends, for family. For hunger, oppression, destruction, shootings. Everything will come in its own retribution. The Russian Federation is a parasite that is constantly trying to expand its territory at the expense of other peoples and other States at any cost. She is war, destruction, death" ... "its control lies in hypocrisy, meanness, it is being professionally trained to zombify". This is a classic example of projection. He (presumably) notes in tones of resentment that the group has to rely on the regular military for weapons.
Promoters of the Transcarpathian child battalion 'Falcon' have released a video showing a group of children, aged 2-10 years singing "Glory to Ukraine. Glory to its heroes. Death to moskals! Ukraine is above everything. The East and the West are together".
Seven Transcarpathian soldiers, mostly officers, have been posthumously awarded title 'Honorary citizen of Uzhgorod' for their personal courage and heroism in defending sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Separatism
The discontent felt by the Hungarian speaking citizens in Transcarpathia is still present, expressed at a low level. Vasily Brenzovich, who is seeking parliamentary mandate, noted that there is now no representation for Transcarpathian Hungarians in the Ukrainian Parliament. The only way this can be gained is through a party list, the block of Petro Poroshenko. He does not accept this and propose continuation of action for representation of minority rights in the European Court of Human Rights.
In contrast, Laszlo Brenzovics, president of the Hungarian Ethnic Alliance (KMKSZ) said that it was a difficult decision to KMKSZ to adopt the Poroshenko's party bid. Given the current very serious and crucial situation in Ukraine, it is important that the Hungarians in Transcarpathia have control over their own development of the situation. The internal debate is due to be resolved in a closed meeting of the KMKSZ.
Transnistria
ATO
Whilst the Ukrainian regime has placed more troops at Bolgrad, close to the Moldova/Transistria/Ukraine border supposedly because of risks raised by Transnistria, the Ukraine ambassador to Moldova says Ukraine will never attack Transnistria. He states that Transnistrian comments about an economic blockade are propaganda.
The modern day Stranglelove, General Breedlove, is stirring things. He claims that NATO needs a regulatory framework to protect non-member countries given that Russia may conduct military operations in Moldova and Transnistria. He also claims that "In the last 12 years we have been trying to become partners with Russia". Maybe placing a missile defence system in Poland, allegedly to protect the west from Iranian missiles, was seen by Russia for what it is - protection for a pre-emptive US nuclear first strike, thereby destroying nuclear deterrence.
Economy
Following an outbreak of cutaneous anthrax in Cahul, south-west Moldova, Transnistria has introduced extra check on cattle imported from Moldova.
Inflation is reducing slightly, with some evidence for reducing food prices dropping. The annual inflation figure is expected to be about 4%.
A Russian trade delegation has visited Transnistria to discuss mechanisms to promote the sale of Transnistrian goods in Russia. The delegation subsequently visited Gagauzia.
The Transnistrian government has reacted to negative economic trends. It aims to generate a stable transparent tax system for small and medium businesses allowing them to plan for the short-term. The proposed introduction of VAT proved controversial. A proposal to introduce a tax of about 1.5% for the renovation and upgrade of the gas infrastructure was also rejected.
Energy
Gazprom has reduced the energy flow through Transnistrian corridor resulting in a 5% drop in supplies to Romania. This is in response to a proposal for reverse flow from Romania to Moldova.
Politics
Andre Sfonov, a former Minister of Education and now political analyst, opposes the current policies of Yevgeny Shevchuk, leader of Transistira. Safonov states that it is not appropriate to concentrate power in times of difficulty. He regards the government as incompetent and proposes that they should resign immediately. Shevchuk has initiated legislation to amend constitution, obliging deputies to work on a permanent basis, introduced changes which complicate the procedure for impeachment of President, whilst simplifying dissolution of armed forces.
The EU Delegation to Moldova has stated that minorities (e.g. those in the pro-Russian autonomous region of Gagauzia) should not be worried about Moldova's association with EU. The Council of Europe representative met with the Transnistria Minister of Foreign Affairs, Igor Shornikov. They discussed partnership projects such as the development of media, civil sector, higher education, protection of cultural heritage and human rights.
Gagauzia and Transnist5ria have separately signed agreements of cooperation with Russian oblasts. Gagauzia signed a document with Nizhn Novgorod, covering trade, technological and humanitarian issues. Transnistria signed Memorandum of Cooperation with Archangelsk covering agriculture, light industry and tourism.
A ministerial delegation from Northern Ireland made a second visit to Transnistria in order to get first hand information about the status talks. The Transnistrian Foreign Minister noted some slight progress had been made - resumption of trade traffic through Transnistria, removal by Russian specialists of a dangerous disused cable car linking both sides of the Dniester river and resolution of some movement problems for people crossing into Moldova. Complications include Moldovan attempts to raise criminal charges against Transnistrian officials, and economic pressure from Moldova.
There has been no progress on the Joint Control Commission to resolve the status of Transnistria. Both sides have agreed to the inclusion of 25 issues on the draft agenda. However, the next meeting of the JCC has been cancelled, with both sides blaming each other, unwilling to compromise over differences.
Propaganda
The 400 strong contingent of Russian troops present as part of the long-established Moldovan/transnistrian/Russian peace-keeping force, took part in an annual training exercise. Tasks included the assembly of pontoon bridges across a river. It remains to be seen to what extent this is projected as i) an invasion of new troops and ii) preparation for war.
The Guardian, a UK 'newspaper', has released an article about Transnistria - "One secret policeman each: life in Fortress Transnistria". It includes a trailer of the video with an opening caption 'Pridnestrovie is a small part of Moldova with population 500,000'. The Guardian writes "What is it like to live in a state that hardly anyone recognises? Secret police, central planning and the ever-present face of Russian-backed strongman Igor Smirnov". These comments set the tone. Secret police - check. Central planning - check. Russian-backed - check. Strongman - check. Interestingly, they use the Russian name Pridnestrovie rather than the Romanian/Moldovan name.
Resources
A BBC video takes a similar line to the Fortress piece promoted by the Guardian. It raises one parallel with Ukraine; most of the industry originally in Moldova was located in the east of the country and now lies in Transnistria.
A third video 'The Renegade province fuelling tensions between Russia and Moldova' also focusses on the porous border with Ukraine, and alleged weapons trading, including so-called weapons of mass destruction. This latter story appears to have originated with mysterious documents that just happened to come into the hands of Oazu Nantoi, a former Moldovan government official and head of a Moldovan NGO. These documents allegedly describe 38 Alazan weather-control rockets modified to carry radioactive material intended to track clouds. The original source for the above report appears to be Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (i.e. US sponsored BS) These alleged rockets conveniently become known as 'dirty bomb-type missiles'. A later report links these same (non existent?) rockets to Zaqarwi and al Qaeda.
An alternative outlook, that gets away from the blatant propaganda of the Guardian and BBC pieces, is provided by Lada Ray. Her website is rather quirky, but she offers several videos related to this part of the work. One in particular relates to Transnistria, in which she presents a first hand, personal, often humorous and human view of the region. She reports on how dependent Moldova is on money sent to it by legal and illegal Moldovan migrant workers in Russia and the EU (~30% of GDP is quoted). Her predictions on the other hand ...
Jeroen Akkermans, the RTL News photographer who made the invaluable photographic records of the debris of the MH17 incident, has an album of photographs of Transnistria taken in 2010.
Sunday, September 14, 2014
Transcarpathia and Transnistria SitRep 06 Sep - 13 Sep
by "Y"
Transcarpathia
ATO
The local police units are still training for ATO service and small groups of police officers still volunteer to fight in the ATO. Fifteen such officers have volunteered during the period covered by this report.
Soldiers from the 128th Transcarpathian unit are returning from the front to Transcarpathia. They arrive in irregularly sized batches; 10 on September 6, a further 30 on the 7th,, then 3 large buses (so possibly 100+ troops) on the 13th. This unit is reported as serving 50 days at the front line, based at Schasta 20 km north of Lugansk. This is the unit that left the front without permission for the Ukraine military command. A commanding officer stated that all the men had served honourably. The battalion commander, named as Vitaliy Komar, was recently released on bail after being arrested in Odessa. He faces a possible 10 year prison sentence. He claims that he is has been made a scapegoat for the poor quality of the upper levels of the Ukrainian military command.
Militia members from the Transcarpathian 'Sich' group complain about poor weapons, limited ammunition that has to be acquired at their own expense or through donations, and absurd orders from above resulting in the militia being left to its own fate.
Four prisoners held by the NAF came from Transcarpathia.Three were members of the 51st Brigade and one from the Donbass battalion, with call sign 'Chrome'. These have been released. The bereaved families of 12 Transcarpathia military members have received a total of 7.3 million UAH in cash assistance (the UAH trades at about 14 to the US dollar).
In an attempt to reassure volunteers, the Transcarpathian regional commission has confirmed that reservists and conscripts defending the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine in the ATO will be recognized as combatants. The intent is to clearly make them eligible for treatment as PoWs if captured and perhaps more importantly, immunity from prosecution within Ukraine.
Finally, more refugees have arrived from the east and Crimea, bringing the total to 1485 (1039) from Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and 227 (222) from Crimea. The figures in brackets represent the totals residing within Transcarpathia at the end of August. There clearly has been a dramatic increase in the number of people fleeing from the fighting in the east. It is not clear whether these individuals are Transcarpathians who have returned or Ukrainians seeking to get as far away from the conflict as possible.
Economy
The economy is in dire straits. Local media report inflation reached 14.2% for August. Utility costs (telephone, water) are increasing whilst income remains stagnant. The limited amount of money available to organise the upcoming election is reported as a big issue for Transcarpathia.
In a wider context relating to the pending EU Agreement, a working group has been established to restore rail connections from Uzhgorod to Prague, Budapest and Romania. Another working group is look at increasing the number of border crossing points between Hungary and Transcarpathia, possibly reducing the spacing from ~35 km to about ~15 km. These changes would facilitate increased trade and tourist traffic.
Energy
Miroslav Lajcak, the Deputy Prime Minister of Slovakia spent two days in Transcarpathia discussing energy issues. Slovakia claims to be able to provide a reverse flow gas supply to Ukraine. However, Gazprom has reacted to this and other attempts at providing reverse supplies. It has reduced supply to Slovakia by 10%, it will reduce gas volumes supplied to Poland and Germany, and has increased the price of gas supplied to Hungary. This latter move should make gas transit from Hungary economically unprofitable. The difference in treatment by Russia of Hungary versus Poland, Slovakia and Germany probably reflects the different positions of the respective countries: Hungary a potential ally and trading partner at one end and Poland an implacable foe at the other. If this is the case, it is interesting that Germany falls on the side of Poland rather than Hungary.
In a further move, Lukoil has announced it is interested in buying the Transneft pipeline running through Transcarpathia. Transneft has lost $62.5 million over the last five years through theft of oil. The cost for acquiring Transneft is likely to be less than $150 million.
Mobilisation
The third phase of mobilization is very problematic country wide. The age limits for exemption are desperately high - 65 years for officers. Only 145 individuals were recruited from the Transcarpathian regions. People are simply ignoring the notices to report or fleeing the region. The authorities are trying to control this situation; the SBU is creating a database of every Ukrainian who has been captured in the east or who has gone missing. They are also monitoring internally displaced persons from the east and Crimea. The wives and mothers of conscripted soldiers are still continuing their protests, demanding that their men not be sent to the front. These protests are much smaller than earlier, booth in number and size of individual demonstrations.
The increased taxation supposedly to support the military in the east has generated 5 million UAH per month in Transcarpathia alone. This tax is based on a 1.5% levy on income and lottery winning, and excludes capital and property assets, so it affects the poorer levels of society in greater proportion, whilst the extremely wealth are relatively immune to its effects.
Politics
The main explicit political news relates to the forthcoming election. A number of local politicians are standing: Viktor Baloha District 69 around Mukachevo, Basil Petiovka District 72 around Tyachiv and Nicoletta Subs District 68 around Uzhgorod. Another politician, Istvan Gajdos, considers Ukraine to be at war making the holding of elections inappropriate. Consequently he is not standing for a major position.
Only Baloha appears prominently in news reports so far. He strongly supports the war in the east, and states that martial law should be declared if necessary. He also says this should be done for the benefit of the country, not to preserve the positions of people already in power. He has declared that money spent on political advertising would be better spent fighting the war. Consequently he has stated that he will donate all such money he receives to the military. More recently he has stated that the 'peace plan' is failing as the Ukrainian positions are being constantly shelled by the Russian-supported 'terrorists'. Consequently there can be no deals with Putin. His view is that there are two options i) full take over the east and wipe out all opposition, or ii) leave it totally, stop financing it and transfer the problem to Russia by defining new borders.
The sudden presence of Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch with pro-Russian views, in Uzhgorod raised some alarm in the local pro-regime camp, fearing he may be attempting to destabilise the region of behalf of Putin.
Propaganda
The usual propaganda activities are still operational. Collections, concerts and other similar events are used to raise funds for the actions in the east. The amounts involved are dwarfed by the amounts raised by the tax mentioned earlier, so the acts serve to provide a 'feel good' factor and possibly supply specific items to unofficial militias with local members. Local NGOs have been formed supposedly to further support and aid the troops. One group 'Movement to Support Transcarpathian Soldiers' was formed by a small group of local artists, media people and journalists. Their major activity seems to have been a press conference. Another group "Native Mukachevo" aims to support fighters from Mukachevo. Details are lacking so far, but they have the air of being entities used to raise the profile of those behind them.
More insidious events reflect the underlying promotion of a pure Ukrainian nation. Firstly a short report in a local online new outlet reports that 'contrary to stereotypes, some Roma soldiers will fight loyally for Ukraine'.
Secondly a local villager, Vladimir Golovchak, had the idea of creating the first children's battalion 'Falcon'. The membership includes children aged 2-10 years. The intent is to raise a patriotic spirit in these children. The associated YouTube video shows the children holding a Pravi Sektor flag central stage, with a Ukrainian flag off to one side.
Separatism
Despite an agreement between Poroshenko and the Hungarian Ethnic Alliance (KMKSZ), there will not be an autonomous Hungarian region in Transcarpathia. This precludes the formation of a Hungarian voting block. The Hungarian government supports the Transcarpathian Hungarian minority in their quest for autonomy. The Hungarian minority in the region have warned that separatism might become a real problem if things get worse in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian response has taken two forms. Firstly an NGO has been created to promote the idea that Hungarian life should move closer to the Ukrainian style. This will probably be as effective as a chocolate teapot.
Secondly, and more effectively, the Transcarpathian authorities are clamping down on all forms of activity that could be seen as supporting or proposing separatism. Local pro-Ukraine media report that once potential separatists have met investigators, the 'promptly fall in love with Ukraine'. The investigators do face problems, as those interviewed frequently claim their social media pages have been hacked or vandalised. There are four reported criminal cases of Rusyn separatism, one prominent person is named as Ivan Petrovtsiy. A second case is only identified by the surname - Sidor. One local resident from Uzhgorod has been sentenced to a 3 year jail term, followed by 1 year probation. The offense cited was 'calling for violent overthrow of constitutional order, formation of illegal paramilitaries in region'. This obviously could be applied to anyone proposing or taking part in another Maidan against the current regime.
The Transcarpathian local government has not disbanded the local Berkut, contrary to the Ukrainian law passed on 25 February. Members of the Pravi Sektor object to this, probably because it weakens their strategy of using violence to silence opposition.
It is clear that the Ukrainian regime fears more attempts at separatism, and possibly any dissenting voices whatsoever. For example, I have seen images of demonstrations in Mariupol before and after the start of the ATO. From these, it seems plausible that such dissent is suppressed rather having faded away. The 'before' image I have in mind shows a public square fully occupied with anti-regime protestors. The 'after' image shows the same square with a much smaller number of pro-regime supporters, taking up about 1/4 to 1/3 of the square. There are two other distinguishing factors; the dominance of Ukrainian symbols (flags flown or being worn) and a large number of buses parked alongside the square. No such buses were present in the first protest. One possible explanation is that someone (the local oligarch?) has gone to the expense of providing uniform PR material and bussing people in from outside the locality.
Transnistria
ATO
On September 10, the Transnistrian Prime Minister Evgeny Shevchuk signed a law requiring all organisations that have bunkers (air raid shelters ?) and other civil security facilities to prepare them for use. It is not clear whether this is in anticipation of a possible attack from Ukraine, Moldova or both. The Ukrainian Ambassador to Moldova has denied Kiev plans to attack Transnistria.
Economy
The Transnistrian economy is severely hampered by the blockade from Moldova and Ukraine. Most of the exports were destined for Russia or Europe, using Odessa as an exit port. This is now closed as a result of the actions by Ukraine. The Gagauzian region of Moldova also has substantial trade Russia and Turkey. It is alarmed by talk of Moldova rejoining ROmania. The Moldovan economy is also very dependent on Russia. It is claimed that ~30% of its GDP arises from money returned by Moldovan migrants to Russia. Russia is currently tightening up its position regarding migrants. Moldova also exports wine and apples to Russia. The viability of this trade will ma be severely affected when Moldova signs the Association Agreement with the UE.
Politics
Political groups in Transnistria has repeated their support of the DNR in their quest for liberation from fascism. In a 2006 referendum, more than 93% of Transnistrians wanted to join the Russian federation. The Russian response has been that this is difficult because there is no shared border.
The main political issue is the undefined legal status of Transnistria. The blockade by Moldova and Ukraine severely hampers the Transnistrian economy. Transnistria has deferred the forthcoming '5+2' talks until these issues are dealt with or included within the scope of the negotiations. The Transnistrian Head of Foreign Affairs met with the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Rubin and the US Ambassador to Moldova W H Moser. The state US position is it wants to the help OSCE mission to Moldova and the '5+2' group to overcome problems and achieve concrete results. Transnistria's position is the negotiation were stopped by Moldova in 2006, only to be restarted in 2011 after much effort especially by Russia to get the talks restarted. Transnistria's suspension of the talks is in response to the economic blockade imposed by Moldova. This has been made worse because Chisinau and Kiev now only allow Transnistrian exports to pass if they have been documented by Moldova. This imposes additional time and monetary costs on the affected goods. Transnistria's position is that it simply wants to run its foreign trade interdependently of Moldova. More recently, Moldovan customs officers at Tiraspol airport have started imposing overly intrusive examinations of the luggage of Transnistrian politicians.
The US has requested that Russia withdraw its peacekeeping troops from Transnistria. The basis for their demand is that the presence does not comply with the Combat Forces in Europe (CFE) agreement. Lavrov has rejected this blatant attempt to weaken Transnistria by stating that the West has not signed the document, so it has no meaning in this case. The US position is made more obvious by their demand that the OSCE mission needs unrestricted access to Transnistrian region because of rising tensions on Ukraine border. The conveniently skip over the fact that the tensions are the result of Ukraine's actions, not those of Transnistria.
Propaganda
One major strand of propaganda is that Russian troops in Transnistria will be used to attack Odessa as the basis for a unified Novorossian coastal zone. This ignores the reality that the peacekeeping force in Transnistria is a roughly equal mix of Transnistrian, Moldovan and Russian troops. If the Russian troops leave Transnistria, then pro-US forces will have little difficulty in overwhelming the Transnistrian forces.
The most amusing propaganda tale relates to the appearance of 'so-called green men' in Moldova, as reported by Moldovan counter-intelligence. These 'little green men' have managed somehow or other to mysteriously appear on Moldovan territory. They attempt to recruit young people as saboteurs, who are taught methods of disinformation, how to act in emergency situations, and how to handle small arms. These green men are, of course, not visible to the normal human eye, but are 'irrefutable evidence' that Transnistria is preparing for war and Russia is recruiting saboteurs.
Transcarpathia
ATO
The local police units are still training for ATO service and small groups of police officers still volunteer to fight in the ATO. Fifteen such officers have volunteered during the period covered by this report.
Soldiers from the 128th Transcarpathian unit are returning from the front to Transcarpathia. They arrive in irregularly sized batches; 10 on September 6, a further 30 on the 7th,, then 3 large buses (so possibly 100+ troops) on the 13th. This unit is reported as serving 50 days at the front line, based at Schasta 20 km north of Lugansk. This is the unit that left the front without permission for the Ukraine military command. A commanding officer stated that all the men had served honourably. The battalion commander, named as Vitaliy Komar, was recently released on bail after being arrested in Odessa. He faces a possible 10 year prison sentence. He claims that he is has been made a scapegoat for the poor quality of the upper levels of the Ukrainian military command.
Militia members from the Transcarpathian 'Sich' group complain about poor weapons, limited ammunition that has to be acquired at their own expense or through donations, and absurd orders from above resulting in the militia being left to its own fate.
Four prisoners held by the NAF came from Transcarpathia.Three were members of the 51st Brigade and one from the Donbass battalion, with call sign 'Chrome'. These have been released. The bereaved families of 12 Transcarpathia military members have received a total of 7.3 million UAH in cash assistance (the UAH trades at about 14 to the US dollar).
In an attempt to reassure volunteers, the Transcarpathian regional commission has confirmed that reservists and conscripts defending the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine in the ATO will be recognized as combatants. The intent is to clearly make them eligible for treatment as PoWs if captured and perhaps more importantly, immunity from prosecution within Ukraine.
Finally, more refugees have arrived from the east and Crimea, bringing the total to 1485 (1039) from Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and 227 (222) from Crimea. The figures in brackets represent the totals residing within Transcarpathia at the end of August. There clearly has been a dramatic increase in the number of people fleeing from the fighting in the east. It is not clear whether these individuals are Transcarpathians who have returned or Ukrainians seeking to get as far away from the conflict as possible.
Economy
The economy is in dire straits. Local media report inflation reached 14.2% for August. Utility costs (telephone, water) are increasing whilst income remains stagnant. The limited amount of money available to organise the upcoming election is reported as a big issue for Transcarpathia.
In a wider context relating to the pending EU Agreement, a working group has been established to restore rail connections from Uzhgorod to Prague, Budapest and Romania. Another working group is look at increasing the number of border crossing points between Hungary and Transcarpathia, possibly reducing the spacing from ~35 km to about ~15 km. These changes would facilitate increased trade and tourist traffic.
Energy
Miroslav Lajcak, the Deputy Prime Minister of Slovakia spent two days in Transcarpathia discussing energy issues. Slovakia claims to be able to provide a reverse flow gas supply to Ukraine. However, Gazprom has reacted to this and other attempts at providing reverse supplies. It has reduced supply to Slovakia by 10%, it will reduce gas volumes supplied to Poland and Germany, and has increased the price of gas supplied to Hungary. This latter move should make gas transit from Hungary economically unprofitable. The difference in treatment by Russia of Hungary versus Poland, Slovakia and Germany probably reflects the different positions of the respective countries: Hungary a potential ally and trading partner at one end and Poland an implacable foe at the other. If this is the case, it is interesting that Germany falls on the side of Poland rather than Hungary.
In a further move, Lukoil has announced it is interested in buying the Transneft pipeline running through Transcarpathia. Transneft has lost $62.5 million over the last five years through theft of oil. The cost for acquiring Transneft is likely to be less than $150 million.
Mobilisation
The third phase of mobilization is very problematic country wide. The age limits for exemption are desperately high - 65 years for officers. Only 145 individuals were recruited from the Transcarpathian regions. People are simply ignoring the notices to report or fleeing the region. The authorities are trying to control this situation; the SBU is creating a database of every Ukrainian who has been captured in the east or who has gone missing. They are also monitoring internally displaced persons from the east and Crimea. The wives and mothers of conscripted soldiers are still continuing their protests, demanding that their men not be sent to the front. These protests are much smaller than earlier, booth in number and size of individual demonstrations.
The increased taxation supposedly to support the military in the east has generated 5 million UAH per month in Transcarpathia alone. This tax is based on a 1.5% levy on income and lottery winning, and excludes capital and property assets, so it affects the poorer levels of society in greater proportion, whilst the extremely wealth are relatively immune to its effects.
Politics
The main explicit political news relates to the forthcoming election. A number of local politicians are standing: Viktor Baloha District 69 around Mukachevo, Basil Petiovka District 72 around Tyachiv and Nicoletta Subs District 68 around Uzhgorod. Another politician, Istvan Gajdos, considers Ukraine to be at war making the holding of elections inappropriate. Consequently he is not standing for a major position.
Only Baloha appears prominently in news reports so far. He strongly supports the war in the east, and states that martial law should be declared if necessary. He also says this should be done for the benefit of the country, not to preserve the positions of people already in power. He has declared that money spent on political advertising would be better spent fighting the war. Consequently he has stated that he will donate all such money he receives to the military. More recently he has stated that the 'peace plan' is failing as the Ukrainian positions are being constantly shelled by the Russian-supported 'terrorists'. Consequently there can be no deals with Putin. His view is that there are two options i) full take over the east and wipe out all opposition, or ii) leave it totally, stop financing it and transfer the problem to Russia by defining new borders.
The sudden presence of Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch with pro-Russian views, in Uzhgorod raised some alarm in the local pro-regime camp, fearing he may be attempting to destabilise the region of behalf of Putin.
Propaganda
The usual propaganda activities are still operational. Collections, concerts and other similar events are used to raise funds for the actions in the east. The amounts involved are dwarfed by the amounts raised by the tax mentioned earlier, so the acts serve to provide a 'feel good' factor and possibly supply specific items to unofficial militias with local members. Local NGOs have been formed supposedly to further support and aid the troops. One group 'Movement to Support Transcarpathian Soldiers' was formed by a small group of local artists, media people and journalists. Their major activity seems to have been a press conference. Another group "Native Mukachevo" aims to support fighters from Mukachevo. Details are lacking so far, but they have the air of being entities used to raise the profile of those behind them.
More insidious events reflect the underlying promotion of a pure Ukrainian nation. Firstly a short report in a local online new outlet reports that 'contrary to stereotypes, some Roma soldiers will fight loyally for Ukraine'.
Secondly a local villager, Vladimir Golovchak, had the idea of creating the first children's battalion 'Falcon'. The membership includes children aged 2-10 years. The intent is to raise a patriotic spirit in these children. The associated YouTube video shows the children holding a Pravi Sektor flag central stage, with a Ukrainian flag off to one side.
Separatism
Despite an agreement between Poroshenko and the Hungarian Ethnic Alliance (KMKSZ), there will not be an autonomous Hungarian region in Transcarpathia. This precludes the formation of a Hungarian voting block. The Hungarian government supports the Transcarpathian Hungarian minority in their quest for autonomy. The Hungarian minority in the region have warned that separatism might become a real problem if things get worse in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian response has taken two forms. Firstly an NGO has been created to promote the idea that Hungarian life should move closer to the Ukrainian style. This will probably be as effective as a chocolate teapot.
Secondly, and more effectively, the Transcarpathian authorities are clamping down on all forms of activity that could be seen as supporting or proposing separatism. Local pro-Ukraine media report that once potential separatists have met investigators, the 'promptly fall in love with Ukraine'. The investigators do face problems, as those interviewed frequently claim their social media pages have been hacked or vandalised. There are four reported criminal cases of Rusyn separatism, one prominent person is named as Ivan Petrovtsiy. A second case is only identified by the surname - Sidor. One local resident from Uzhgorod has been sentenced to a 3 year jail term, followed by 1 year probation. The offense cited was 'calling for violent overthrow of constitutional order, formation of illegal paramilitaries in region'. This obviously could be applied to anyone proposing or taking part in another Maidan against the current regime.
The Transcarpathian local government has not disbanded the local Berkut, contrary to the Ukrainian law passed on 25 February. Members of the Pravi Sektor object to this, probably because it weakens their strategy of using violence to silence opposition.
It is clear that the Ukrainian regime fears more attempts at separatism, and possibly any dissenting voices whatsoever. For example, I have seen images of demonstrations in Mariupol before and after the start of the ATO. From these, it seems plausible that such dissent is suppressed rather having faded away. The 'before' image I have in mind shows a public square fully occupied with anti-regime protestors. The 'after' image shows the same square with a much smaller number of pro-regime supporters, taking up about 1/4 to 1/3 of the square. There are two other distinguishing factors; the dominance of Ukrainian symbols (flags flown or being worn) and a large number of buses parked alongside the square. No such buses were present in the first protest. One possible explanation is that someone (the local oligarch?) has gone to the expense of providing uniform PR material and bussing people in from outside the locality.
Transnistria
ATO
On September 10, the Transnistrian Prime Minister Evgeny Shevchuk signed a law requiring all organisations that have bunkers (air raid shelters ?) and other civil security facilities to prepare them for use. It is not clear whether this is in anticipation of a possible attack from Ukraine, Moldova or both. The Ukrainian Ambassador to Moldova has denied Kiev plans to attack Transnistria.
Economy
The Transnistrian economy is severely hampered by the blockade from Moldova and Ukraine. Most of the exports were destined for Russia or Europe, using Odessa as an exit port. This is now closed as a result of the actions by Ukraine. The Gagauzian region of Moldova also has substantial trade Russia and Turkey. It is alarmed by talk of Moldova rejoining ROmania. The Moldovan economy is also very dependent on Russia. It is claimed that ~30% of its GDP arises from money returned by Moldovan migrants to Russia. Russia is currently tightening up its position regarding migrants. Moldova also exports wine and apples to Russia. The viability of this trade will ma be severely affected when Moldova signs the Association Agreement with the UE.
Politics
Political groups in Transnistria has repeated their support of the DNR in their quest for liberation from fascism. In a 2006 referendum, more than 93% of Transnistrians wanted to join the Russian federation. The Russian response has been that this is difficult because there is no shared border.
The main political issue is the undefined legal status of Transnistria. The blockade by Moldova and Ukraine severely hampers the Transnistrian economy. Transnistria has deferred the forthcoming '5+2' talks until these issues are dealt with or included within the scope of the negotiations. The Transnistrian Head of Foreign Affairs met with the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Rubin and the US Ambassador to Moldova W H Moser. The state US position is it wants to the help OSCE mission to Moldova and the '5+2' group to overcome problems and achieve concrete results. Transnistria's position is the negotiation were stopped by Moldova in 2006, only to be restarted in 2011 after much effort especially by Russia to get the talks restarted. Transnistria's suspension of the talks is in response to the economic blockade imposed by Moldova. This has been made worse because Chisinau and Kiev now only allow Transnistrian exports to pass if they have been documented by Moldova. This imposes additional time and monetary costs on the affected goods. Transnistria's position is that it simply wants to run its foreign trade interdependently of Moldova. More recently, Moldovan customs officers at Tiraspol airport have started imposing overly intrusive examinations of the luggage of Transnistrian politicians.
The US has requested that Russia withdraw its peacekeeping troops from Transnistria. The basis for their demand is that the presence does not comply with the Combat Forces in Europe (CFE) agreement. Lavrov has rejected this blatant attempt to weaken Transnistria by stating that the West has not signed the document, so it has no meaning in this case. The US position is made more obvious by their demand that the OSCE mission needs unrestricted access to Transnistrian region because of rising tensions on Ukraine border. The conveniently skip over the fact that the tensions are the result of Ukraine's actions, not those of Transnistria.
Propaganda
One major strand of propaganda is that Russian troops in Transnistria will be used to attack Odessa as the basis for a unified Novorossian coastal zone. This ignores the reality that the peacekeeping force in Transnistria is a roughly equal mix of Transnistrian, Moldovan and Russian troops. If the Russian troops leave Transnistria, then pro-US forces will have little difficulty in overwhelming the Transnistrian forces.
The most amusing propaganda tale relates to the appearance of 'so-called green men' in Moldova, as reported by Moldovan counter-intelligence. These 'little green men' have managed somehow or other to mysteriously appear on Moldovan territory. They attempt to recruit young people as saboteurs, who are taught methods of disinformation, how to act in emergency situations, and how to handle small arms. These green men are, of course, not visible to the normal human eye, but are 'irrefutable evidence' that Transnistria is preparing for war and Russia is recruiting saboteurs.
Saturday, September 6, 2014
Transcarpathia and Transnistria SitRep 30 Aug - 05 Sep
by "Y"
The situation in both areas is relatively stable. The sitrep is presented in a thematic order, maintaining chronological sequence within each theme. This should help the reader understand what is happening in these regions
Transcarpathia
ATO
The military units in the region continue to rely on public assistance to acquire non-lethal equipment. A small group of six or so pro-Ukrainian fighters known as the 'Carpathian Sich' currently active in the ATO region has requested thermal imagers and thermal underwear. The 128th Mukachevo mountain infantry brigade is also short of such equipment including protective clothing, radios, first aid supplies, fire extinguishers, power supplies and mattresses.
Multiple public events are held locally attempting to raise funds for the local military units. These include local collections, musical concerts, Ice Bucket challenges and the auction of dates with celebrities. The state has made such charitable aid exempted from tax. It is difficult to know whether these acts reflect a real local shortage of funds, an attempt to foster a patriotic spirit, or a combination of the two. Given the state of the Ukrainian economy, the former is certainly an important factor.
The local battalion is supposedly manned on the understanding that it is purely for local defense. A small group of about 27 individuals have volunteered to go to the front to support the ATO. This contingent was purely others ranks, as not a single officer volunteered for this duty.
The most recent official death count for Transcarpathia is only fifteen. Another 40 injured troops are receiving treatment at the Mukachevo military hospital. This unit has beds for 50 patients, so it is near capacity. Several of the wounded have very severe leg injuries, possibly requiring amputation. There are no public reports for casualties being treated elsewhere in the region. It is difficult to assess how realistic the official figures are given the number of troops sent to the front is unknown. There is certainly a shortage of commanders, APC gun operators and APC drivers.
Towards the end of August, the 5th battalion of the Prykarpattya brigade left the front. The 400 soldiers had been fighting for a long period without rest under very difficult conditions. The unit was stopped by Ukrainian security and police after travelling for 5 days from the south-east. The soldiers made their case and were granted 10 days leave. The commander has been detained for 2 months pending trial, with bail of 300,000 UAH. The troops protested his arrest as they did not consider him or themselves deserters, merely in need of rotation. This action has influenced the behavior of other units on the front who do not want to be treated as deserters.
The region is supporting a small number of refugees. The number amounted to a total of 1261 by the end of August 2014. Of these, 222 originated from Crimea, and the remainder are from the south-east of Ukraine. The refugees from Crimea obviously have not migrated as a result of the ATO operations. On 5 September, six fighters returned from the ATO with an unknown number of refugees including children.
Economy
There is low level discontent with the economy, which is probably not confined to this region. Prices are rising whilst wages staying the same. There is a Ukrainian joke - the local currency does not jump. There have also been tax increases on tobacco. Given the high prevalence of smoking in Ukraine, this is certainly not popular.
In a demonstration of Ukrainian humor (or their lack of a sense of irony), laws have been established allowing for the imposition of fines to be levied for overdue payments for public services.
Energy
The big news, fully played up in the press and on TV is the opening of a reverse flow gas pipeline from Slovakia. This runs from Vojny in Slovakia to Uzghorod in Transcarpathia. The Ukrainians claim this will carry 21.5 million cubic metres (cu m) of gas per day, three times the existing reverse flow from Poland and Hungary. The pipeline capacity would be 10 billion cu m / year. Other analysts dispute this figure, saying technical limits will reduce the capacity to 2 billion cu m / year. The main problem is the lack of spare capacity in Slovakia. A great deal was also made of the lower price charged by Slovakia - $360 per thousand cu m as opposed to the $385 commonly quoted as the Gazprom price.
Yatsenyuk claims that Ukraine can import a total of 15 billion cu m / year of gas via these reverse flow pipelines, amounting to 60% of Ukraine's needs. It remains to be seen how realistic these figures are. If the alternative figures quoted are more realistic, the total would be ~ 7 billion cu m / year or about 28% of the demand. Either way, Ukraine is going to need to deal with Gazprom. Yatsenyuk also met with the Slovakian Prime Minister Fico who opposes sanctions against Russia. The outcome of that meeting was not reported.
A more immediately significant change representing the reality is illustrated by the reinstatement of daily electricity supply restrictions. Residential users face daily loss of power for the period 19:00-21:00. Some news sites report that cuts will occur from 08:00 to 10:00 as well.
Mobilisation
Following the initial high levels of opposition to mobilisation, the organizers of the current third phase stress that Transcarpathian units will be for local service only. The authorities will not stop anyone volunteering to go to the front. The current recruitment is for males aged 18-60 years who are medically fit for military service. The pay is supposedly 2000 UAH per month, rising with experience and duration of service.
Politics
The 1150,000 Hungarian minority has attempted to increase the effectiveness of its vote. The Hungarian block is split over 3 local constituencies which severely reduces the possibility of pro-Hungarian representation. The Society of Hungarian Culture asked the Regional State Administration representative Valeriy Luchenko to appeal to Poroshenko and Central Election Commission to establish single mandate constituencies for the Beregovo and Vynogradiv districts. Such constituencies exist in Kiev and elsewhere. This request was made on the basis of EU regulations on rights of minorities. This appeal was not accepted so the block is still split.
Commentators expect the forthcoming elections to be complicated by the war in the east. There is an expectation of political clashes, arson against deputies cars, and accusations of bribery. It is clear that the government wants to redistribute votes in order to pass laws required to implement IMF austerity and loan payback conditions.
The region will also be holding a number of small scale international military exercises. The first is Light Avalanche 2014 involving Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary & Romania. This is exercise relates to the Vynogradiv multinational engineer battalion TISA, involving about 150 soldiers training in flood protection for the Tisza river basin. A larger exercise, Karpaty 2014, is scheduled for the end of September. This is a multinational mountain infantry exercise, with 2500 troops from Ukraine and a similar number from the other participants. This will take place in the local mountains. These exercises were obviously scheduled long before the disastrous losses in the east and the consequent effects on troops levels. At the moment the Karpaty exercise is still scheduled.
Propaganda
The state and business oriented media supports the established convention that those opposing the Kiev regime in the south-east are terrorists. They follow the standard propaganda line that Russia has invaded and there are 10-15,000 Russian troops in east in addition to terrorist organizations. In contrast, the Hungarian language media describe the people in the south-east as dissidents.
Sanctions
Local patriotic initiatives include distinctively marking Russian-supplied products on supermarket shelves and the use of 'No Russian goods' stickers for other businesses. The problem with the supermarket product approach is that, in the few images released, almost everything ends up being labelled. The sticker idea seems to be the bright idea of a local small business person. I suspect these are just symbolic, patriotic feel-good actions rather than effective actions.
Separatism
Jobbick, the far right Hungarian political party, has expressed concerns for the status of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia. It has established a charity in Transcarpathia aimed at raising awareness and support for these Hungarians. The Transcarpathian authorities consider Jobbik to be subverted by Russia, aiming to intervene in internal affairs of Ukraine and affect its territorial integrity. Legal actions are being taken against the charity, claiming it is acting in violation of Ukrainian law.
The regional business media repeats the usual anti-Russian propaganda. In particular a report states that Russia plans to use a 'Yugoslav scenario' at expense of Transcarpathia. Presumably this relates to the concept of some unspecified form of federalization. This report also mentions that some time ago, a noticeable numbers of people in the region were speaking with a prominent Russian accent. The implication is that these were outsiders sent in to promote the creation of Rusyn-Hungarian autonomy, a form of separatism. One of the leaders, Peter Gecko, is sought by the SBU charged with incitement to infringe on territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Gecko is reported to have been present at the recent meeting in Yalta which focussed on means of expanding so-called "Union of the People's Republics. The local media report includes a tantalising reference to the Kharkiv oblast. It states that a Kharkiv National Republic was proclaimed on 7 April. This Republic lasted only one day, before it was halted following the arrest by the police of six dozen members of this "Republic".
The Transcarpathian prosecutor has opened four cases of separatism, one of which must relate to Gecko. There are no details so far of the targets involved in the other three cases. A working group involving the SBU, law enforcement officers and prosecutors has been established. It is tasked with preventing the emergence of separatism. All of this indicates the regime is scared of further outbreaks of separatism, and is specifically trying to suppress the idea of a Republic of the Subcarpathian Rus.
Transnistria
ATO
The pro-regime press and supporters talk of a second front at Odessa, based on presence of about 1500 troops in Transnistria. The troops form part of the post-independence peace keeping mission. They are primarily tasked with guarding the remaining large ammunition and weapon store (reputedly ~ 22,000 tons) at Cobasna. In the face of rising adverse actions from Moldova, the Transnistria authorities have called for a mobilisation within the population. The Transnistria troop strength is estimated to be 4500-7500 including both regular and paramilitary units. The country has a population of about 500,000. Any forces raised by mobilisation will require extensive training and subsequent arming. It should be noted that the ammunition and weapons mentioned above date back to the Soviet period, so the are probably in very poor condition. The idea of this kind of second front is probably not realistic, at least in the short term, as the removal of trained troops would leave Transnistria open to re-invasion by Moldova.
These concerns by the Ukrainian regime had been addressed by placing military units on the coast close to the border with Transnistria. These forces have been moved to the Donbass, in an attempt to reinforce weak points in the front line. This has complicated the plan, probably devised by the US, to use Moldova and Ukraine to totally isolate Transnistria.
Energy
The gas pipelines from Russia to Moldova pass through Transnistria. In an attempt to separate Moldova from Russian influence, via perceived control of the pipeline in Transnistria, a reverse flow gas pipeline has been constructed linking Moldova and Romania. The first phase of the pipeline, partly funded by the EU, has been completed. The price of gas in Romania is 40% cheaper than the price charged directly by Gazprom. It is of no surprise that the US has praised this so-called energy diversity. It suffers from the fundamental problems outlined above, namely a lack of excess supply in Romania and the residual dependence of gas passing through Transnistria.
Politics
A long-running negotiation process aimed at resolving the legal status of Transnistria has the next meeting in Vienna scheduled for 11-12 September. This is described as a '5+2' process. It involves 5 active entities, Moldova, Transnistria, the OSCE, Russia and Ukraine, along with two observer states, the EU and US. These talks broke down in 2006 only to be reinstated following insistence by Russia. The position of the EU, a supposed observer, is illustrated by their support of Moldova, praising it for choosing the path of moving toward the west whilst 'simultaneously keeping good relations with the east'.
The Transnistria representatives have called into question the forthcoming round. They claim that a number of issues raised as a result of actions by Moldova are not covered by the existing framework. These actions are described as forms of economic, information and diplomatic war. The specific actions include criminal proceedings being initiated against Transnistrian officials, the reuse in Moldova of frequencies allocated for the Transnistrian telephone service and adverse economic consequences arising from Moldova signing an EU Association Agreement.
Transnistria states it is not is refusing to continue the 5+2 talks, rather it has legitimate concerns that need to be addressed. Moldova states that Transnistria is putting forward artificial pre-conditions, which only undermines trust and complicates the process of resolving the legal status of Transnistria.
Sanctions
The actions of Moldova against Transnistria have been balanced by blow-back from reverse sanctions imposed by Russia. These have severely affected the Moldovan agricultural economy. In consequence, Moldova has asked the EU for financial support for its farmers. The robust EU economy will surely have no problems accommodating these additional costs.
The situation in both areas is relatively stable. The sitrep is presented in a thematic order, maintaining chronological sequence within each theme. This should help the reader understand what is happening in these regions
Transcarpathia
ATO
The military units in the region continue to rely on public assistance to acquire non-lethal equipment. A small group of six or so pro-Ukrainian fighters known as the 'Carpathian Sich' currently active in the ATO region has requested thermal imagers and thermal underwear. The 128th Mukachevo mountain infantry brigade is also short of such equipment including protective clothing, radios, first aid supplies, fire extinguishers, power supplies and mattresses.
Multiple public events are held locally attempting to raise funds for the local military units. These include local collections, musical concerts, Ice Bucket challenges and the auction of dates with celebrities. The state has made such charitable aid exempted from tax. It is difficult to know whether these acts reflect a real local shortage of funds, an attempt to foster a patriotic spirit, or a combination of the two. Given the state of the Ukrainian economy, the former is certainly an important factor.
The local battalion is supposedly manned on the understanding that it is purely for local defense. A small group of about 27 individuals have volunteered to go to the front to support the ATO. This contingent was purely others ranks, as not a single officer volunteered for this duty.
The most recent official death count for Transcarpathia is only fifteen. Another 40 injured troops are receiving treatment at the Mukachevo military hospital. This unit has beds for 50 patients, so it is near capacity. Several of the wounded have very severe leg injuries, possibly requiring amputation. There are no public reports for casualties being treated elsewhere in the region. It is difficult to assess how realistic the official figures are given the number of troops sent to the front is unknown. There is certainly a shortage of commanders, APC gun operators and APC drivers.
Towards the end of August, the 5th battalion of the Prykarpattya brigade left the front. The 400 soldiers had been fighting for a long period without rest under very difficult conditions. The unit was stopped by Ukrainian security and police after travelling for 5 days from the south-east. The soldiers made their case and were granted 10 days leave. The commander has been detained for 2 months pending trial, with bail of 300,000 UAH. The troops protested his arrest as they did not consider him or themselves deserters, merely in need of rotation. This action has influenced the behavior of other units on the front who do not want to be treated as deserters.
The region is supporting a small number of refugees. The number amounted to a total of 1261 by the end of August 2014. Of these, 222 originated from Crimea, and the remainder are from the south-east of Ukraine. The refugees from Crimea obviously have not migrated as a result of the ATO operations. On 5 September, six fighters returned from the ATO with an unknown number of refugees including children.
Economy
There is low level discontent with the economy, which is probably not confined to this region. Prices are rising whilst wages staying the same. There is a Ukrainian joke - the local currency does not jump. There have also been tax increases on tobacco. Given the high prevalence of smoking in Ukraine, this is certainly not popular.
In a demonstration of Ukrainian humor (or their lack of a sense of irony), laws have been established allowing for the imposition of fines to be levied for overdue payments for public services.
Energy
The big news, fully played up in the press and on TV is the opening of a reverse flow gas pipeline from Slovakia. This runs from Vojny in Slovakia to Uzghorod in Transcarpathia. The Ukrainians claim this will carry 21.5 million cubic metres (cu m) of gas per day, three times the existing reverse flow from Poland and Hungary. The pipeline capacity would be 10 billion cu m / year. Other analysts dispute this figure, saying technical limits will reduce the capacity to 2 billion cu m / year. The main problem is the lack of spare capacity in Slovakia. A great deal was also made of the lower price charged by Slovakia - $360 per thousand cu m as opposed to the $385 commonly quoted as the Gazprom price.
Yatsenyuk claims that Ukraine can import a total of 15 billion cu m / year of gas via these reverse flow pipelines, amounting to 60% of Ukraine's needs. It remains to be seen how realistic these figures are. If the alternative figures quoted are more realistic, the total would be ~ 7 billion cu m / year or about 28% of the demand. Either way, Ukraine is going to need to deal with Gazprom. Yatsenyuk also met with the Slovakian Prime Minister Fico who opposes sanctions against Russia. The outcome of that meeting was not reported.
A more immediately significant change representing the reality is illustrated by the reinstatement of daily electricity supply restrictions. Residential users face daily loss of power for the period 19:00-21:00. Some news sites report that cuts will occur from 08:00 to 10:00 as well.
Mobilisation
Following the initial high levels of opposition to mobilisation, the organizers of the current third phase stress that Transcarpathian units will be for local service only. The authorities will not stop anyone volunteering to go to the front. The current recruitment is for males aged 18-60 years who are medically fit for military service. The pay is supposedly 2000 UAH per month, rising with experience and duration of service.
Politics
The 1150,000 Hungarian minority has attempted to increase the effectiveness of its vote. The Hungarian block is split over 3 local constituencies which severely reduces the possibility of pro-Hungarian representation. The Society of Hungarian Culture asked the Regional State Administration representative Valeriy Luchenko to appeal to Poroshenko and Central Election Commission to establish single mandate constituencies for the Beregovo and Vynogradiv districts. Such constituencies exist in Kiev and elsewhere. This request was made on the basis of EU regulations on rights of minorities. This appeal was not accepted so the block is still split.
Commentators expect the forthcoming elections to be complicated by the war in the east. There is an expectation of political clashes, arson against deputies cars, and accusations of bribery. It is clear that the government wants to redistribute votes in order to pass laws required to implement IMF austerity and loan payback conditions.
The region will also be holding a number of small scale international military exercises. The first is Light Avalanche 2014 involving Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary & Romania. This is exercise relates to the Vynogradiv multinational engineer battalion TISA, involving about 150 soldiers training in flood protection for the Tisza river basin. A larger exercise, Karpaty 2014, is scheduled for the end of September. This is a multinational mountain infantry exercise, with 2500 troops from Ukraine and a similar number from the other participants. This will take place in the local mountains. These exercises were obviously scheduled long before the disastrous losses in the east and the consequent effects on troops levels. At the moment the Karpaty exercise is still scheduled.
Propaganda
The state and business oriented media supports the established convention that those opposing the Kiev regime in the south-east are terrorists. They follow the standard propaganda line that Russia has invaded and there are 10-15,000 Russian troops in east in addition to terrorist organizations. In contrast, the Hungarian language media describe the people in the south-east as dissidents.
Sanctions
Local patriotic initiatives include distinctively marking Russian-supplied products on supermarket shelves and the use of 'No Russian goods' stickers for other businesses. The problem with the supermarket product approach is that, in the few images released, almost everything ends up being labelled. The sticker idea seems to be the bright idea of a local small business person. I suspect these are just symbolic, patriotic feel-good actions rather than effective actions.
Separatism
Jobbick, the far right Hungarian political party, has expressed concerns for the status of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia. It has established a charity in Transcarpathia aimed at raising awareness and support for these Hungarians. The Transcarpathian authorities consider Jobbik to be subverted by Russia, aiming to intervene in internal affairs of Ukraine and affect its territorial integrity. Legal actions are being taken against the charity, claiming it is acting in violation of Ukrainian law.
The regional business media repeats the usual anti-Russian propaganda. In particular a report states that Russia plans to use a 'Yugoslav scenario' at expense of Transcarpathia. Presumably this relates to the concept of some unspecified form of federalization. This report also mentions that some time ago, a noticeable numbers of people in the region were speaking with a prominent Russian accent. The implication is that these were outsiders sent in to promote the creation of Rusyn-Hungarian autonomy, a form of separatism. One of the leaders, Peter Gecko, is sought by the SBU charged with incitement to infringe on territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Gecko is reported to have been present at the recent meeting in Yalta which focussed on means of expanding so-called "Union of the People's Republics. The local media report includes a tantalising reference to the Kharkiv oblast. It states that a Kharkiv National Republic was proclaimed on 7 April. This Republic lasted only one day, before it was halted following the arrest by the police of six dozen members of this "Republic".
The Transcarpathian prosecutor has opened four cases of separatism, one of which must relate to Gecko. There are no details so far of the targets involved in the other three cases. A working group involving the SBU, law enforcement officers and prosecutors has been established. It is tasked with preventing the emergence of separatism. All of this indicates the regime is scared of further outbreaks of separatism, and is specifically trying to suppress the idea of a Republic of the Subcarpathian Rus.
Transnistria
ATO
The pro-regime press and supporters talk of a second front at Odessa, based on presence of about 1500 troops in Transnistria. The troops form part of the post-independence peace keeping mission. They are primarily tasked with guarding the remaining large ammunition and weapon store (reputedly ~ 22,000 tons) at Cobasna. In the face of rising adverse actions from Moldova, the Transnistria authorities have called for a mobilisation within the population. The Transnistria troop strength is estimated to be 4500-7500 including both regular and paramilitary units. The country has a population of about 500,000. Any forces raised by mobilisation will require extensive training and subsequent arming. It should be noted that the ammunition and weapons mentioned above date back to the Soviet period, so the are probably in very poor condition. The idea of this kind of second front is probably not realistic, at least in the short term, as the removal of trained troops would leave Transnistria open to re-invasion by Moldova.
These concerns by the Ukrainian regime had been addressed by placing military units on the coast close to the border with Transnistria. These forces have been moved to the Donbass, in an attempt to reinforce weak points in the front line. This has complicated the plan, probably devised by the US, to use Moldova and Ukraine to totally isolate Transnistria.
Energy
The gas pipelines from Russia to Moldova pass through Transnistria. In an attempt to separate Moldova from Russian influence, via perceived control of the pipeline in Transnistria, a reverse flow gas pipeline has been constructed linking Moldova and Romania. The first phase of the pipeline, partly funded by the EU, has been completed. The price of gas in Romania is 40% cheaper than the price charged directly by Gazprom. It is of no surprise that the US has praised this so-called energy diversity. It suffers from the fundamental problems outlined above, namely a lack of excess supply in Romania and the residual dependence of gas passing through Transnistria.
Politics
A long-running negotiation process aimed at resolving the legal status of Transnistria has the next meeting in Vienna scheduled for 11-12 September. This is described as a '5+2' process. It involves 5 active entities, Moldova, Transnistria, the OSCE, Russia and Ukraine, along with two observer states, the EU and US. These talks broke down in 2006 only to be reinstated following insistence by Russia. The position of the EU, a supposed observer, is illustrated by their support of Moldova, praising it for choosing the path of moving toward the west whilst 'simultaneously keeping good relations with the east'.
The Transnistria representatives have called into question the forthcoming round. They claim that a number of issues raised as a result of actions by Moldova are not covered by the existing framework. These actions are described as forms of economic, information and diplomatic war. The specific actions include criminal proceedings being initiated against Transnistrian officials, the reuse in Moldova of frequencies allocated for the Transnistrian telephone service and adverse economic consequences arising from Moldova signing an EU Association Agreement.
Transnistria states it is not is refusing to continue the 5+2 talks, rather it has legitimate concerns that need to be addressed. Moldova states that Transnistria is putting forward artificial pre-conditions, which only undermines trust and complicates the process of resolving the legal status of Transnistria.
Sanctions
The actions of Moldova against Transnistria have been balanced by blow-back from reverse sanctions imposed by Russia. These have severely affected the Moldovan agricultural economy. In consequence, Moldova has asked the EU for financial support for its farmers. The robust EU economy will surely have no problems accommodating these additional costs.
Saturday, August 30, 2014
August 30th Transcarpathia and Transnistria SITREP by "Y"
Transcarpathia
29 Jul. NATO has sponsored a project involving Romanian and Ukrainian scientists to monitor river pollution on the Tisza river. This is a major source of drinking water for the region and passes through Uzhhord. This is a major town situated close to the border with Romania. This strikes me as an opportunity to insert SIS types into the region under NGO/environmentalist cover.
5 Aug. The head of the region, deputy Valeriy Lunchenko claimed there were a few dozen citizens of the Russian Federation inciting the local people to protest against mobilisation. Lunchenko claimed that mobilisation is not forced and all moblised persons are volunteers.
7 Aug. Reports of the protesters acting against mass military mobilisation in the Transcarpathia region are turning into a full scale uprising. Local residents are blocking the roads, stopping trains and are taking over the control of places of strategic importance. The town of Mukachevo is at the heart of the rebellion. Protesters have also taken actions in the Mukachevo region: villages of Chervenovo, Domboki and Strabichevo, in the Beregove region: villages of Gat and Muzhievo and four towns in the Hustsky region
19 Aug. 1500 Ukrainian troops sent to Transcarpathia to control possible separatist action forming a second front. The effect of this has been exacerbated by the arrival of a similar number of trained volunteers in the east.
20 Aug. More than 100 activists from Irshava district rallied near the Transcarpathian Regional Administration. One of their main demands was to enforce the district council decision whereby two-thirds of the deputies passed a motion of no confidence in the head of Irshava District State Administration, a member of the Svoboda party Vasyl Svichkar.
24 Aug. Kiev passes decree intended to popularize signs of Ukrainian patriotism and to prohibit the use of the coat of arms, flag and anthem of undemocratic regimes. In particular, totalitarian, self-proclaimed quasi-state formations, terrorist, separatist organizations or groups. This is obviously aimed at Novorossian symbology.
25 Aug. Migration Service of Ukraine acts in Transcarpathia to identify illegally residing foreign & stateless persons.
26 Aug. Transcarpathians from western Ukraine will join the resisistance in the International Rusyn Battalion of Lugansk Republic.
27 Aug. Reports from Delatyn that the 5th Battalion of the Carpathian defence force has deserted from from the front in the south east. This video shows a battle-scarred convoy en route presumably back to Transcarpathia.
Transnistria
10 Jul. An article in the New York times mentions that Strelkov, described as a former intelligence agent, fought in the post-Soviet conflicts in Transnistria, Serbia and Chechnya. I like their further description - "Mr. Strelkov, a native Muscovite whose real name is Igor Girkin, is a figure as mysterious as he is fearsome". Can we look forward to him reappearing in Transnistria in the near future? If the Novorossia story is ever filmed, will there be a rejuvenated Sean Connery playing his part saying "My name is Strelkov.... Igor Strelkov" in a soft Scottish-Russian accent? Stay tuned.
27 Jul. Ukraine starts construction of a large ditch 3.5 m wide and 2-3 m deep, along the whole border with Transnistria. The intent is to stop the movement of heavy military equipment and the movement of contraband goods. The US Senate adopted Resolution SR 500 in support of the territorial integrity of Moldova and the condemnation of Russian economic pressure on Moldova. It also calls for the EU to deepen political and economic integration with Moldova. Once more, the EU becomes the fall guy for US foreign policy with respect to Russia.
3 Aug. Reports of concern in Transnistria that Ukraine will attack Tiraspol, the capitol, in order to draw Russia into the conflict, being framed as the aggressor.
11 Aug. Transnistria anounces that it is not preparing to attack anyone, but it is ready to repel any aggression against it.
20 Aug. Transnistria's government just announced it was mobilizing its military from 21 August.
21 Aug. Transnistria mobilizes its army. All employees of state agencies will undergo combat training. Russian official visits region.
22 Aug. Following his meeting with Transnistria's leadership, the Russian vice-premier Dmitriy Rogozin noted that even at this very difficult time Russia will continue supporting its compatriots.
26 Aug. More American soldiers are spotted at a bar in Moldova. Keep in mind the military build up in Transnistria. Moldova proposes introducing legislation making it a criminal offence to promote 'separatism' and 'extremism'.
28 Aug. Ukraine has increased the scope of its existing regulations preventing the passage of Russian males aged 18-60 across the border with Transnistria to include children, women and elderly people.
Background:
The Wiki links (with obvious caveats) Transcarpathia, Zakarpatia oblast and Transnistria form a starting point. Given the complex ethography, history and politics of both regions, there are multiple interpretations of events, which must be borne in mind. Anonther source is the blog Springtime of Nations in which the author looks at the emergence of small states throughout the world, including seccession movements in the US. The interpetation of both regions seems to come from a conventional US/Western perspective, especially regarding foreign policy. He also considers the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which is another proxy for US/Russia conflict.
29 Jul. NATO has sponsored a project involving Romanian and Ukrainian scientists to monitor river pollution on the Tisza river. This is a major source of drinking water for the region and passes through Uzhhord. This is a major town situated close to the border with Romania. This strikes me as an opportunity to insert SIS types into the region under NGO/environmentalist cover.
5 Aug. The head of the region, deputy Valeriy Lunchenko claimed there were a few dozen citizens of the Russian Federation inciting the local people to protest against mobilisation. Lunchenko claimed that mobilisation is not forced and all moblised persons are volunteers.
7 Aug. Reports of the protesters acting against mass military mobilisation in the Transcarpathia region are turning into a full scale uprising. Local residents are blocking the roads, stopping trains and are taking over the control of places of strategic importance. The town of Mukachevo is at the heart of the rebellion. Protesters have also taken actions in the Mukachevo region: villages of Chervenovo, Domboki and Strabichevo, in the Beregove region: villages of Gat and Muzhievo and four towns in the Hustsky region
19 Aug. 1500 Ukrainian troops sent to Transcarpathia to control possible separatist action forming a second front. The effect of this has been exacerbated by the arrival of a similar number of trained volunteers in the east.
20 Aug. More than 100 activists from Irshava district rallied near the Transcarpathian Regional Administration. One of their main demands was to enforce the district council decision whereby two-thirds of the deputies passed a motion of no confidence in the head of Irshava District State Administration, a member of the Svoboda party Vasyl Svichkar.
24 Aug. Kiev passes decree intended to popularize signs of Ukrainian patriotism and to prohibit the use of the coat of arms, flag and anthem of undemocratic regimes. In particular, totalitarian, self-proclaimed quasi-state formations, terrorist, separatist organizations or groups. This is obviously aimed at Novorossian symbology.
25 Aug. Migration Service of Ukraine acts in Transcarpathia to identify illegally residing foreign & stateless persons.
26 Aug. Transcarpathians from western Ukraine will join the resisistance in the International Rusyn Battalion of Lugansk Republic.
27 Aug. Reports from Delatyn that the 5th Battalion of the Carpathian defence force has deserted from from the front in the south east. This video shows a battle-scarred convoy en route presumably back to Transcarpathia.
Transnistria
10 Jul. An article in the New York times mentions that Strelkov, described as a former intelligence agent, fought in the post-Soviet conflicts in Transnistria, Serbia and Chechnya. I like their further description - "Mr. Strelkov, a native Muscovite whose real name is Igor Girkin, is a figure as mysterious as he is fearsome". Can we look forward to him reappearing in Transnistria in the near future? If the Novorossia story is ever filmed, will there be a rejuvenated Sean Connery playing his part saying "My name is Strelkov.... Igor Strelkov" in a soft Scottish-Russian accent? Stay tuned.
27 Jul. Ukraine starts construction of a large ditch 3.5 m wide and 2-3 m deep, along the whole border with Transnistria. The intent is to stop the movement of heavy military equipment and the movement of contraband goods. The US Senate adopted Resolution SR 500 in support of the territorial integrity of Moldova and the condemnation of Russian economic pressure on Moldova. It also calls for the EU to deepen political and economic integration with Moldova. Once more, the EU becomes the fall guy for US foreign policy with respect to Russia.
3 Aug. Reports of concern in Transnistria that Ukraine will attack Tiraspol, the capitol, in order to draw Russia into the conflict, being framed as the aggressor.
11 Aug. Transnistria anounces that it is not preparing to attack anyone, but it is ready to repel any aggression against it.
20 Aug. Transnistria's government just announced it was mobilizing its military from 21 August.
21 Aug. Transnistria mobilizes its army. All employees of state agencies will undergo combat training. Russian official visits region.
22 Aug. Following his meeting with Transnistria's leadership, the Russian vice-premier Dmitriy Rogozin noted that even at this very difficult time Russia will continue supporting its compatriots.
26 Aug. More American soldiers are spotted at a bar in Moldova. Keep in mind the military build up in Transnistria. Moldova proposes introducing legislation making it a criminal offence to promote 'separatism' and 'extremism'.
28 Aug. Ukraine has increased the scope of its existing regulations preventing the passage of Russian males aged 18-60 across the border with Transnistria to include children, women and elderly people.
Background:
The Wiki links (with obvious caveats) Transcarpathia, Zakarpatia oblast and Transnistria form a starting point. Given the complex ethography, history and politics of both regions, there are multiple interpretations of events, which must be borne in mind. Anonther source is the blog Springtime of Nations in which the author looks at the emergence of small states throughout the world, including seccession movements in the US. The interpetation of both regions seems to come from a conventional US/Western perspective, especially regarding foreign policy. He also considers the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which is another proxy for US/Russia conflict.
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