Message to the readers of this blog from Juan

'A scorecard for the US "lukewarm war" on Russia - strategic and tactical levels' is an excellent synopsis by The Saker of the entire situation in Ukeland, Novorossiya and the World.  When I first came in contact with Saker I realized within a nanosecond that he and most of the posters on this blog were intellectually far above my narrow view. I am a 'nuts and bolts' man and I mentioned in one of my first posts that while Saker and many others here had and have a vast overview of the world I could see not much beyond my weapon sights in days past and to an extent to this day.

However, having looked through weapons sights I can at least try to give you on this blog an idea of what has and is happening for those who are boots in the mud, or, today it being summer, boots in the dust, and somewhat of an idea of what to expect in the daily grind and semi chaos of small unit actions. I will as usual try not to give the Nats any idea at all of what they are doing right and what they are doing wrong. For our boys I do from time to time mention things to people I know.

In small unit tactics, small unit being fire team, squad and platoon sized ops plus Recon activities, you will have good days and you will have bad days. No army, no regiment, no rota (company), no section has ever enjoyed complete and unbroken success in any war since the beginning of time. Small units are tactical units, period. The combination of the activities of many tactical units creates strategy, but for a single small unit to have any real affect on strategy is quite rare and in reality are for the history books and studies at war colleges. Reality is small units are expendable in the grand strategic scenario.

A small unit will hold, for instance, a road block post, a bridge, a relatively important terrain feature or minor communications hub. A small unit can not and will not hold their position against an overwhelming enemy attack. Faced with massive superiority of an enemy force arrayed against it the unit will simply report in to Command, give a hasty sitrep, put up a short resistance to the enemy force and then withdraw, inflicting what casualties they can before and during the tactical withdrawal. If Command decides the terrain feature is worth holding then the small unit fights as hard as possible until help arrives from Command. The reality is the Army of Novorossiya can rarely contest in great numbers an action by the Nats when said Nats bring all their forces to bear, although this reality has in fact been changing in the last two weeks or so. Remember, a scant month or so ago the Army of Novorossiya didn't have heavy weapons or even more than a precious few medium machine guns. Most of what they did have and have today was donated by the Nats army one way or another. A tactical withdrawal of a few hundred meters generally has precisely zero to do with overall Strategy in general. The fly in the ointment of that statement is a whole series of tactical withdrawals in a short period of time adds up to a strategic withdrawal and that can have a distressing affect on the overall strategy of your command structure.

Normal life for a small unit is day in day out grinding hours of boredom interspersed with seconds and minutes of hard fighting. The soldiers clean weapons and equipment always, first and foremost, improve their positions as much as possible with what is to hand, eat, clean themselves, some always on the firing steps so to speak and keeping a keen eye out for any untoward activity in the area and they will generally have LPOP's (listening/observation posts) out in front to give early warning of anything untoward coming their way. This activity is 24 hours a day seven days a week. There is no holiday when you are in the line even if the 'line' is a 30 m wide position out in the middle of nowhere. You get to know your fellow soldiers in your unit very well as you wile away the endless hours talking about everything in the world. As with civilian life the soldiers will run the gamut from good to bad to average. The bad don't last long, they tend to be attrited out of a combat unit either by enemy action or their sarjanti (sergeants). Bravery don't mean squat when you're facing half a dozen nats tanks or BMP's and said nats are irritated to an extreme. What civilians call 'bravery' is almost always simply the unthinking actions of soldiers in protecting their comrades and holding their position as ordered. It is only after the fact that 'bravery' is adjudged.

A small unit is, as mentioned, expendable. This happens. Never underestimate the fighting abilities of your enemy and this includes the Nats army. The Nats do, indeed, have some units that will fight and fight hard plus at this time the enemy still has overwhelming numbers and vast equipment. There will be times, both in static defense or in patrols, where our boys will lose and have lost. Our casualties reflect this reality. We will lose positions, we will lose villages and towns, we will lose entire tactical units, no doubt. I also have no doubts that in the end we will prevail but our boys will pay and are paying a heavy price in blood.

Civilians. As I have aged I have mellowed and I remember every dead civilian face I've ever seen. I can not and do not dwell on them, but I remember. My old Sarjant's philosophy was 'civilians get in the way'. Neither he back then nor I today mean the poor civilians in Novorossiya who are mercilessly bombarded day and night by the thugs from Kiev. I mean that when taking or holding a position there will often be civilians in the area. Our task is to either take or hold a position. Civilians can be and often are foolish. Especially in today's times they have all seen movies that in no way, shape or form reflect reality. I've seen civilians stand beside a tank that was actively fighting and firing at their enemy and I saw the civilians die when the tank was hit and brewed up. Nothing I or we could do. Every civilian death is a tragedy, but for God's sake when civilians hear or see active combat, go and hide! Find a hole, a ditch, a thick wall, run away from the shooting, anything, but get the hell out of the way and take the children with you! Our boys will do what they can to protect you but reality is they are soldiers who are fighting and ever second you take them from or distract them from their task at hands risks not only them personally but the success of the operation they are involved in and if they fail in that operation it puts you, the civilians, in the tender mercies of the nats/right sector gentlemen.

Bottom line, we will lose men and units and positions just as we take positions and cause the enemy to lose men and units. This is the reality of War. One can not and must not dwell on the losses of men and small units, however cold and hard that may sound.

My friends, do not ever get discouraged. Remember our men, women and children who have fallen and those who will fall today, tomorrow, and every day until we achieve the victory I know is coming. Do not expect the Russian Army to cross the borders and help Novorossiya. This will not happen unless The West unleashes some horrendous attack on civilians that kills thousands of them. Can The West do this? Yes. Will The West do this? I don't know. I pray The West doesn't and I hope my, and our, prayers are answered. 

Juan

June 8th combat SITREP by "Juan"

1. Confirmed view live stream Grad missile battery firing salvos outskirts Slavyansk early morning 08.08.2014

2. Reports of Russian armored columns crossing in the Novorossiya at sunup 08.06.2014 are false.

3. Strong bombardment of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk still. Ukraine tanks firing in to living areas both cities as part of bombard.

4. Civilian casualties reported from on going artillery attack Slavyansk, 15.2 cm howitzer and 12.2 cm mortar in use with lighter field guns and aircraft.

5. Reports of 1944 IS 152 renovated by Novorossiya Army are false.

6. Heavy fighting village outskirts of Slavyansk 08.45 08.06.14.

7. краснолиманскому Army Novorossiya attack national guard/right sector units guard post near canal. Strong fighting 11:15 08.06.14.

8. Reports military park Ukraine Артемовске taken Army Novorossiya night 07-08 June 2014. Unconfirmed by onsight inspection.

9. On sight report Grad missile battery fires on Slavyansk from Kramachuk Mountain. Confirmed.

10. Strong armor column stopped outside Lugansk City. No activity from column as of 9:47 08.06.14.

June 7th combat SITREP by "Juan"

Question by The Saker: Did the Border Control Headquarters really fall to Donbas Army?
 
Juan's reply: Yes, done deal since yesterday morning. Lots of vids showing Donbas Army allowing the prisoners to leave after they changed in to civilian clothes and some vids showing Donbas Army going through the building and armories. Found was a got a ton of weapons and ammo including RPG's and MG's, at least two BTR's in good condition, several trucks and GAZ jeeps, at least one amphibious tracked vehicle that runs and a treasure trove of documents.

It was the officers who fought, the young boys mostly didn't or at best half heartedly. In actual fact most of the conscripts (Border Service and Militsiya are mostly draftees like the Army) were locked in a room until the fighting was over.

Donbas also took two army bases that same day. So score for that day is Donbas lost Krasni Limon and took Border Control HQ, two army bases and took control of about 90 kilometers of border when the actual border guards on duty loaded up all in to their cars and went to Rostov across the border with their families.

Donbas Army also disabled two T-64's, read shot them up pretty seriously. They can be repaired even though one had a pretty substantial fire on the rear deck over the engine/trans compartment. Both had road wheels shot off with their suspension arms and one had both drive sprockets mangled by RPG fire which means the final drive from the transmission is also damaged. Another T-64 took several antitank rifle hits on his main gun. The main tube was not penetrated but the impacts will have damaged the barrel internally and it will have to be replaced.

The Ukes also lost at lest 7 BTR's, more than one BMP, several trucks including one full of national guards that was hit with an RPG and burned. Donbas Army didn't shoot the wounded and burning boys spilling out of the truck.

The Ukes also lost, confirmed, 2 Mi24's and one Su25 with one Mi24 and one SU25 as probables. At least one other Mi24 was damaged by anti aircraft fire and was forced to land hard. Most everyone on that bird was wounded, don't know how bad the bird was damaged.

All in all the Ukes got a bloody nose. Donbas Army losses were not small especially considering their wounded being killed in hospital.

We just listened to Poroshenko's inauguration speech and it's basically a declaration of war against Novorossiya. He intends to finish 'cleaning Donetsk and Lugansk' etc etc. No federalization, no negotiation. Putin has his answer. 

PS:  If the link for the evacuations from Slovyansk is dead here's one that works:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKkoFOV3Yyg 
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Comment by the Saker: I have just listened to excepts of the Poroshenko speech (for lack of time I could not listen to the full thing right now) and I concur Juan: this is a declaration of war on Novorossia.

The Saker

June 6th combat SITREP update by "Juan"

1. Commo around Slavyansk is busy with reports of much movement of Nats forces.

2. Semenovka is under continuous bombardment since 07:00 06.06.2014. Vast areas are destroyed. Grad missiles are used but not in salvo. 15.2 cm howitzers and 12.2 cm mortars plus heavy field guns and tank cannon.

3. Lugansk City proper is under air attack 18:05 06.06.2014. At least 2 Su25 aircraft attacked living areas. Casualties unknown.

4. Nats An 30b surveillance aircraft shot down 06.06.2014 18:45 local time. First 2 vids. http://vk.com/video?gid=57424472

5. Slavyansk water supply system hit by Nats arty. Water supply to most of city cut off.

6. Slavyansk electric supply system hit by Nats Arty. Electric off for most of city as of 14:00 06.06.2014.

7. Krasni Liman. All males ages 18-40 being arrested by right sector. Those arrested are being taken out of town. Fates unknown. Photos. Militsiya (police) car with right sector.

8. 2 strong armor columns moving toward Slavyansk. Numerous tanks and supporting troops.

9. 3 cm anti aircraft guns are shooting down in to Slavyansk City from overlooking hills. Living areas and shops are targeted.

10. An agreement was reaching with Nats Army CO Slavyansk area to evactuate two columns of buses with children and young mothers. First column left city using designated route and was fired upon by right sector units. Casualtied, if any, are unknown. Second column left by a different route. No commo with either column since 16:14 06.06.2014.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDdam2uzmVs

11. Donbas Army has made appeal for qualified tankists and pilots.

12. Reports of heavy fighting developing outskirts of Slavyansk City proper 18:45 local Ukraine time.

14. Personal conversation by phone mid day today with person living near Krasni Liman. Person states right sector is looting shops, confiscating cars, trucks and buses. A few civilian men shot down in local streets. Some young women have been outraged. Person says no food allowed in to their living area location. Person states person and children eating porridge made from stored cattle food using water from local stream. Porridge is not cooked, barley soaked in water until soft, eaten cold. Water and electric cut off. Right sector going door to door checking documents and confiscating computers and cell phones. If no one answers door right sector breaks door down. If anyone in house or flat they are beaten and sometimes shot. Citizens with Russian passports are arrested and taken away. Fate unknown. Could hear screams and shouts at not great distance from cell phone, person stopped phone in mid sentence. I did not call back for fear of endangering person.

June 5th combat SITREP update by "Juan"

• Красный Лиман Krasni Liman was taken by Ukraine Army and national guard 04 June 2014.
• Replacement Mi24 attack helicopters have arrived in Ukraine as replacements for the Ukraine Army losses in Donbas. Confirmed.
• Strong bombardments Slavyansk City and outlying towns and villages commenced 05:00 local time 05.06.2014. Civilian casualties unknown.
• National guard/right sector entered Railroad Hospital Krasni Liman and shot dead 37 wounded Donbas Army soldiers and civilians and at least 1 hospital worker. Confirmed.
• Air and artillery bombardments Krasni Liman cause strong civilian casualties 04.06.2014.
• List of dead air attack on Lugansk Administration Building:

• Kostjukov Vladimir Andreyevich , 1971 (regional administration)
• Corn Inna (regional administration)
• Giza Alexander (regional administration)
• Unidentified woman
• Dolzenko Nina 1955 (regional administration)
• Polezhaev Sergey 1964 (regional administration)
• Natalia Arkhipova (regional administration)
• Cerkez Galina 1967 (regional administration)

• Confirmed reports national guard/right sector random shooting civilians Krasni Liman and searching residences.
• Border Guard Headquarters and one military base taken by Donbas Army 04.06.2014. Large amounts of weapons and ammunition captured in both bases. Border Guard HQ prisoners allowed to change to civilian clothes and leave base. Prisoners from military base unknown if allowed to leave after surrender.
• Name, rank and unit of Ukraine pilot SU25 attacked Lugansk Administration Building known. Complete conversation of pilot with control before, during and after attack recorded by Donbas Army.

Russians are sub-humans in the eyes of the West

by "Juan"

Untermenschen. That is what we are in the eyes of The West. Untermenschen. Subhumans.

I have watched the unfolding coup d'etat in Ukraine from it's very beginning in late November 2013 in Kiev. I have watched a steady stream of western dignitaries and politicians parade through Maidan Square in Kiev, each and every one of them publicly and vocally expressing their open support of the coup d'etat. I find it appalling that the sitting ambassador of the United States of America to the Sovereign Country of Ukraine, Geoffrey R. Pyatt, actively and publicly supported a violent coup d'etat against the sitting and legally elected government of Ukraine and to this day actively and publicly expresses open support for the illegal coup d'etat installed government in Kiev.

On 01 December 2013 my wife and I watched the Right Sector and Svoboda Party operatives attempt to take the Presidential Administration Building on Bankhova Street in Kiev under the active and visible command of Vitaly Klitchko and Petro Poroshenko, two sitting deputats of the Ukraine Rada (parliament). After that 3 hour riot ended with Bankhova Street being finally cleared by Berkut riot police who were under orders to not go beyond the end of Bankhova Street, I told my wife President Yanukovich would lose against the coup d'etat. She told me I was crazy. 2 1/2 months later we were shoveling sand in to bags in the middle of the night at the new block post just above Belbek Aerodrome as our Self Defense Forces in Sevastopol and Krimea built and manned block posts at the Krim/Ukraine border and the 5 roads in to Sevastopol. The victors of the Maidan coup d'etat, Oleg Tyagnibok (a sitting deputat of Ukraine Rada) and Dmitro Yarush, leaders of Svoboda Party and Right Sector Party respectively, had stated, during a live interview on Channel 5 TV in Kiev on 27 February 2014, that they were going to lead their combined 5500 fighters from Miadan down to Krim and Sevastopol and 'kill every Russian there' combined with 'we will put every Russian in Krim to the knife'. We took them seriously and we knew they were heavily armed with AK 47's and RPGs, clearly seen in videos of the end and aftermath of the coup in Maidan. Those first two days and nights on the barricades we had only clubs for most of us.

Long story short, we seized our two governments from the Kiev appointed administrators, formed new governments for Sevastopol and the Autonomous Republic of Krimea and shortly thereafter activated a treaty signed with Russia in 1993 wherein Russia guaranteed the safety of the Autonomous Republic of Krimea and the City of Sevastopol. Russia honored that treaty and 3 days later the Russian Army arrived to protect us from the coup government in Kiev. The screams from The West were heard all the way to Mars. The screams were heard in the Andromeda Galaxy when we voted to join the Russian Federation and were excepted in to the RF.

Shortly after the coup d'etat in Kiev several eastern and southern oblasti (districts) in Ukraine expressed dissatisfaction with the 'new' illegal government installed in Kiev. Right Sector operatives immediately began to infiltrate in to those oblasti. Demonstrations turned sometimes violent and people died.

On 02 May there was a football match in Odessa on the south coast of Ukraine. We all know what happened in Odessa with the massacre of the anti Kiev demonstrators, unarmed demonstrators, in and around the Labor Union Building in Odessa as they were beaten, shot and burned to death. What you don't know is the true number of dead that day and evening. 297 anti Kiev demonstrators AND innocents died that day. Over 50 were in hospital. Some of those who jumped from the entrance hall stairway at the fourth and fifth floor levels were beaten to death as they lay on the ground. Others were made to crawl away, severely injured, and were kicked and beaten as they crawled to the pile of wounded.

To this day not a single western government that I am aware of has expressed the slightest sympathy or condolences for any of the wounded or dead in Odessa. The overriding comments from what little was said about Odessa in The West was the fact that the 'anti kiev activists and agents' accidently set the building on fire as they were throwing molotov cocktails at the football fans around the building. Why should they care? After all, the men, women, and yes, two children, who died in the massacre are Untermenschen. WE are Untermenschen.

In the weeks before and after the massacre in Odessa the situation came to a head in Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast. Both declared their indendence from Ukraine and set up their own governments. The West screamed bloody murder as they are wont to do with their double standard and blamed everything on Russia and Mr. Putin including the drought in Mexico and the outbreak of teenaged acne in Australia.

The two oblasti set up self defense units as Kiev mobilized their army and formed a large 'national guard' unit from Right Sector fighters from Maidan and western and central Ukraine. On 9 May there was a massacre in the city of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast, now the Donbas Peoples Republic. Over 100 unarmed citizens and Militsiya (police) were shot down, often right on live camera. Yes, many of the citizens were screaming great obscenities at the Right Sector unit that entered the city. The police where slaughtered in their headquarters for being 'disloyal' to Kiev Government. Some were burned alive, handcuffed, in the police headquarters as it was burned by the Right Sector unit.

To this day not a single western government that I am aware of has expressed the slightest sympathy or expressed condolences for the murdered men and women in Mariupol. After all, the dead citizens are Untermenschen. WE are Untermenschen.

In the following days and weeks the Ukraine Army began to bombard villages, towns and cities starting with Slavyansk in Donbas. The first 'bombardment' was one single 82mm mortar round. With no reaction from either The West or Russia, the next day a heavy bombardment ocurred. In the days after the first heavy bombardments the toll of wounded, dead, maimed civilians mounted as the artillery was fired at patently civilian areas, we call them 'living areas'. Over 100 civilians have died in the last two weeks. A like number were wounded.

To this day not a single western government that I am aware of has expressed the slightest sympathy or expressed condolences for the murdered men and women and children in Donbas nor has a single western government asked Kiev to cease the bombardments. After all, the dead citizens are Untermenschen. WE are Untermenschen.

Yesterday, 03 June 2014, shortly after noon local time there was an attack on the Lugansk City Administration Building in the center of Lugansk by a single Ukrainian Air Force Sukhoi 25 ground attack airplane. He fired a single volley of missiles at the front of the building. Yes, the building is the titular headquarters of Donbas Republic but 95% of the offices and workers in that building are city administration workers, civilians doing their work for the citizens of Lugansk and most of whom have worked there for years. Ukraine well knew that fact and attacked. The impact of the rockets are well documented in many videos extant on the internet as is the aftermath as the area is being policed up and the fire in the one burning office on the fourth floor is extinguished.

The first two attached videos are of the area immediately after the attack. They are graphic to an extreme and are not for those with a weak stomach. The woman in the red blouse with her dying breaths asks "Excuse me please, give me a telephone." Those words are an exact translation, she did say 'Excuse me please' before she requested the phone. The young man in the park whom they start CPR on died. The old man lying face down in the street is dead. The man face up with his head on a tyre died. The four women at the base of the entrance steps, three died instantly and the fourth, the lady with the red blouse, died in moments after her request. The man screaming as he takes the video of the carnage is screaming 'sookhie'. 'Sookha', singular, and 'sookhie', plural, is the Russian word for a female dog. Like in English, in Russian it also has the second meaning, as in bitch. Here it's fighting words.

The west media did mention this senseless slaughter after a fashion. They said in their very few 'articles' yesterday refering to this slaughter that the 'terrorists and rebels of the Donbas Army fired a Manpad that accidently hit the building'. This in spite of dozens of videos showing the missiles impacting in the park in front of the building and walking right up to the base and front facade of the building and the death and destruction in the park and in front of the building. Even the much vaunted BBC told the Manpad story.

The third video is of the artillery bombardment of Slavyansk at dawn and shortly after today, 03 June 2014. I do not know of the extent of the civilian casualties this morning in Slavyansk but I do know one 9 story flats building was hit square on the roof and was burning as of 06:00 local time as are other structures in Slavyansk.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDPlr4lv884 slaughter in Lugansk admin bldg. 02 June

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ssqvx6UOvd4 death in the park in front of admin bldg. 02 June

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XOdazB-R1M Bombard Slavyansk 03 June

To this moment not a single western government or government official that I know of has expressed either sympathy or condolences for these dead civilians nor have any of them asked Kiev to cease these terror attacks. After all, the dead citizens are Untermenschen. WE are Untermenschen.

I urge you all, each and every one of you, to flood your embassies, your ambassadors, your politicians, your presidents, your prime ministers, every government functionary you can find, with these videos. Perhaps their army of minions will not be able to stop all from getting through to them. Use email, use facebook, use twitter, use whatever you can. Show them WHAT THEY DID. Not that they will care. After all, we are Untermenschen.

But one thing they should understand. We, the Untermenschen, will fight them. Ukraine died in Odessa on 02 May 2014. Any chance of negotiations about Donbas died on 09 May 2014 in Mariupol. After Lugansk yesterday it will be a fight to the death. We will win. We Untermenschen will defeat you. We have no choice. We will fight you to our last breath and die fighting before we kneel in subservience to a single one of you.

For you politicians behind the coup d'etat in Kiev and the war against the citizens of Ukraine, you disgust me. I have only this to say to Merkel, Torchinov, Poroshenko, Holland, Cameron. Swift Boat John, Nuland and Obama, whoever the 'president' of poland is, each and every one of you, your minions and hangers on, the west politicians, ALL of you.

Damn your eyes, damn your souls, damn you to Hell, back to where you came from. You are beneath contempt.

June 3rd combat SITREP update by "Juan"

• No sleep from 05:00 02.06. Please excuse spelling mistakes.
• During a protest near Lviv in west Ukraine by women demanding the return of their conscripted sons and husbands the women were beaten by Tyagnibok's Svoboda Party operatives. Two women are in hospital.
• Artillery fire commenced against the town of Severodonetsk 04:20 local time.
• Slavyansk and Kramatorsk heavy fighting resumed dawn today. 3 enemy BTR's destroyed before dawn 03 June 2014 Kramatorsk area. Casualties unknown.
• Lugansk fighting and artillery bombardments started dawn in outskirts. One flats building hit by artillery and on fire. Casualties unknown.
• 27 children including some milk babies were successfully evacuated from Kromatorsk after dark 01 June. Destination unknown.
• Intense fighting around Kramotorsk Aerodrome from dawn today. The distinctive sound of a German MG3 was clearly heard. This weapon is known to be in Nats armories in small numbers and some rechambered for Russian 7.62 x 54 round from NATO 7.62 x 51 round. High cyclic rate of fire.
• Ukraine Army is blocking all traffic in and out of Donetsk City and Slavyansk. No medical supplies are allowed in to either area. The prohibition of evacuating children from both cities is still in effect by Junta. Sick and severely wounded evacuation is prohibited.
• Reports of very heavy fighting suburbs of Slavyansk 08:10 local time. Reports of tank cannon fire in the area of fighting are unconfirmed. Tank cannon have a distinctive sound different from artillery of the same caliber.
• 09:29 local time column of tanks and BTR's have fought their way in to Slavyansk with right sector infantry. Very intense fighting extant in actual city.

Short message from "Juan"

"Another long night. As of this time, 06:14 local time, the Grad system has not fired. Bombardment of civilian areas stopped at 03:00 31.05.14 and resumed at 06:00 this morning."

May 30th combat SITREP update by "Juan"

Seemyovka, Slavyansk, Kromatorsk and Donetsk City are under heavy artillery bombardment and aircraft  bombing attacks for 2 hours and continuing. Civilian areas targeted. Civilian casualties are mounting, Donbas Army casualties unknown. 

Data provided 25 Brigade located on Karachun Mountain overlooking Slavyansk has been order to fire Grad systems early morning 31 May 2014 in full salvo. 3 launchers in place. Commander refused the order and was removed.

Systems have been zeroed in and are ready to fire. Intent is 'flatten Slavyansk'.

Source is reliable but not 100% verified.

May 30th combat SITREP by "Juan"

1. Sporadic and heavy at times fighting around Slavyansk and the outlying villages on 29 May with no notable successes for the Nats Army and national guard units. Some losses reported for the national guard units.

2. A half battery of Grad missile launchers, BM-21, is in position within range of Mariupol. As of this morning that unit has not fired. Range of Grad missile is up to 35 kilometers.

3. A half battery of Grad missile launchers is in position within range of Slavyansk.

4. I have no positive verification of a Grad missile attack on Slavyansk. This does not mean an attack did not occur. Something very large and multiple did hit the outskirts of an outlying village but I have no source at the impact spots to verify what the impacts were.

5. Sources report that the Donbas Army action at Donetsk Airport was a trap involving proposed negotiations with certain Ukraine Army units under the auspices of a western organization in Donetsk at that time. Sources report that shortly after the negotiations started the Ukraine Army sent in by air strong reinforcements to their unit in airport as the Ukraine Army units in airport attacked the Donbas Army unit.

6. The transport of the Donbas Army wounded in convoy out of the airport area late Monday evening was arranged as a truce to succor the wounded. The two Kamaz transport trucks were each flying a red cross flag and a white flag of truce. They drove in to an ambush set up by right sector/national guard units. The drivers of both trucks were killed. One truck overturned after striking a curb. The other truck was hit by an RPG round. The surviving wounded were killed by right sector on the spot. As the wounded were being killed the two flags were removed from each truck by right sector operatives.

7. Partisan activity has started 3 days ago in Kharkov Oblast around Kharkov City among other areas targeting national guard/right sector units. 29 May losses to two national guard/right sector units were heavy in ambushes.

8. Vostok Battalion 29 May started an operation around Donetsk Administration Building of the Donbas Republic to stop looting by certain Donbas Army members after strong complaints from citizens. Metro supermarket near the airport was heavily looted by Donbas Army members as were several other shops and stores and much of the loot was stored in 3 tents in the area of Donbas Administration Building, one tent having the contents and perpetrators shown on video. Reports are 7 looters were arrested and are awaiting trial. Reports from Ukraine and west media that the looters were shot are false.

9. After the anti looting operation was completed Vostok Battalion had the square in front of Donbas Administration Building cleared of the barricades to provide access for citizens to the facility and to facilitate easier defense of the area in the event of a Ukraine attack.

10. Civilian casualties in Donbas are mounting with the random artillery attacks by units of the Ukraine Army and national guard/right sector. 29 May saw 8 civilians killed in Donbas and a like number of wounded. Some of these casualties were caused by air burst antipersonnel rounds fired from howitzers of the Ukraine Army. Targets are living areas with flats buildings with no visible Donbas Army units in the areas.

12. Families of mobilized Ukraine Army reservists held a large demonstration in Kiev at the Ukraine Parliament Building demanding the return of their husbands and sons. By Ukraine law reservists can not be mobilized for more than 45 days without a declaration of war against another sovereign state by Ukraine. This declaration of war has not been made. Kiev has ordered the mobilization extended indefinitely.

13. One of the two Ukrainian helicopters shot down on 29 May was carrying the commanding general of the 'national guard' who was also 'the commander of field operations for national guard units'.

14. Ukraine has rejected the offer of humanitarian aid from Russian Federation for the two Oblasti of Donetsk and Lugansk.

15. An attempt on 29 May to evacuate children from certain areas of Slavyansk was unsuccessful. Ukraine Army units blockading the city refused passage to the buses carrying the children.

16. A refugee processing center has been set up in the Federal City of Sevastopol of the Russian Federation to aid in the settlement of refugees arriving from areas of fighting in Ukraine. Several hundred refugees have arrived in Sevastopol as of 17:00 29 May and are being housed and fed in the city. A like number are being succored in Simferopol, the capitol of the Autonomous Republic of Krimea of the Russian Federation. A processing center is schedule to be set up 30 May in Simferopol to help the refugees. More refugees are expected in both cities. A like facility for refugees will be set up in the eastern Krimea city of Kerch if needed.

May 28th combat SITREP update by "Juan"

• Residential areas of Slavyansk shelled by mortars and artillery starting at 11:00 local time.
• School #13 in Slavyansk was hit by a 12.2 cm mortar shell. School is also used as a kindergarten. 9 civilians injured including a 4 year old boy. Unknown if the casualties were at the school or in other areas under bombardment.
• Very strong fighting commenced approximately 15:30 local time in the area of Donetsk Airport but not at airport. Airport terminal is heavily damaged from fighting Monday. Fighting is ongoing as of 17:00 local time.
• Artillery bombardment in town of Rubezhnoye in Lugansk Oblast. Casualties unknown. Reliable sources say there are no Lugansk Self Defense forces in or near the town. 
•  ZU-23-2 antiaircraft gun system seen in public video in possession of Donbas Army.

May 28th combat SITREP by "Juan"

• Heavy bombardment at night and early morning in Rubezhnoye in Lugansk Oblast. Civilian casualties unknown.

• More scattered fighting and probes around Slavyansk last night and this morning.
• Donetsk residents are actively assisting the Fed units in building barricades on city streets and setting up fighting positions.
• Reports of more fighting in the Donetsk Airport area last night and dawn this morning.
• Terminal at Donetsk Airport heavily damaged in the fighting Monday.
• Probes in scattered areas around Lugansk City. No reports of results or casualties, civilian or military.
• Situation in Mariupol is unknown.
• Email yesterday 23:07 local time from Donetsk Oblast, simple and terse: 'We are at war. Pray for us.' No word since as of 09:12 local time.

"Flash" SITREP update from "Juan"

Tanks are on the move west of Slavyansk, destination unknown, at least a Rota (Company, ergo 16 tanks if at full strength, which is doubtful. Normally any serving tank Rota will be at 75% max at any given time as tanks are under repair, and normally 60%. Under combat conditions it is 50% or less.) with accompanying support units such as BTR's and BMP's plus infantry. Unit unknown.

Unconfirmed information states that one platoon of tanks (Platoon is 4 tanks) lost their way and managed to drive in to a swamp. Two were so deep in water and mud the diesels hydraulicked.

At roughly 18:20 local time a bombardment was made on a residential district in Slavyansk lasting for 20 minutes. One building of flats took 3 direct hits. Casualties are unknown. 

Video of arty hitting civilian house in residential area:

The conflict in the Ukraine as seen by a professional soldier

I have recently come into contact with "Juan" who currently resides near the conflict area in the Ukraine. I don't personally know Juan but I am confident that he/she is a person with a military background and a first-hand knowledge of the Russian military, including elite units. In our email exchanges we soon established that while I was "one of 'them' who was buried under 15 kilometers of concrete, rock and steel" "Juan" was one of the "poor ground pounders had to slog through the mud and slime, rain and snow'. This gave me the idea to ask "Juan" to provide the readers of this blog with an analysis of the conflict in the Ukraine written from the point of view of somebody whose career was on the front lines and not, like me, in air-conditioned rooms with fancy computers and communication gear. I sincerely think that this latter perspective is something this blog sorely needed and I am delighted to be able to share it with you today.

A big thank you to "Juan" for agreeing to share his views with all of us!

The Saker

*******

The conflict in the Ukraine as seen by a professional solider:
Introduction:

I have been asked by The Saker to share my view of the current conflict in the Ukraine. I will provide no information that is not publicly available if one wants to dig and one is observant with the many videos available on the internet amongst other places. I will give my opinion on the fighting capabilities of Russian soldiers (By Russian Soldiers I mean ethnic Russians and citizens of the Russian Federation serving in the Russian Army. This includes most, but not all, on both sides of the Donbas and Lugansk fighting. It is meant as neither a compliment nor a denigration.) but I will not answer any questions, that will be up to the Saker, although he is free to consult me about questions. I am apolitical publicly but I will give an opinion in private. I have served. We will leave it at that with the exception of stating while Saker was safely ensconced under more than a few inches of concrete and steel, I was boots in the mud, therefore he and I have a totally different view of events, his world wide, mine what I could see through my weapon sights and not much more.

I will give my assessment of the military situation and forces arrayed against each other in the Donbas and Lugansk Oblasti but first I will say a little something about War. War is not a nice vocation, it is not a nice event. War is almost always, operative term being almost, a result of failed diplomacy. War is in essence an extension of diplomacy and as such is almost always political one way or another. Politics be damned, to us who have been to war, to us who have fought, actually fought, we hate war more than anyone. For those of you who have not been to war, and don't mean those of you who have served in one way or another in your army, but those of you who never picked up your weapon and went nose to nose with the proclaimed enemy, fought him and won, you have no idea what it is like. You see the videos, you see the AAR's (After Action Reviews, the synopsis of what went right and want went wrong and why.), you read the endless pontifications of the talking heads in the news media and the politicians, but you have never seen real War unless you have stood and fought, watched your enemy fall, watched your comrades fall, seen the toll on civilians, walked the field after a battle, seen the destruction, smelled the smells, heard the sounds, felt the fear (We are always afraid before combat. It is our training and experience that allows us to hide the fear from our comrades and the younger men in the unit.). No, unless you have stood in the line you don't know War.

For most of you War is an abstract happening, something to talk about, to play video games about, to laugh and joke about in the cafe or bar after work, to urge one side or the other to attack, fight, do something. If you only knew the reality of combat you would never even whisper the word 'war', you would hang your politicians from the nearest lamp post at the first beat of the war drums. We are soldiers. You ask us to do this and we do this for you. In the West we are as likely to be spit upon as thanked. When the war clouds gather you scream for us to help you, to save you. We do what you ask and for this many of you denigrate us. In Russia we are honored, welcomed home, thanked for what we did. Yes, we who have been to war, who have stood in the line and fought, we hate war. We also understand more than most that there times, much as we hate it, that one must fight. In my opinion this is one of those times when men have to fight for Donbas and Lugansk.

One more thing before I turn to the topic at hand: If you want to understand Russia, Russians and Russian culture you must start by studying Byzantium, it's history, culture, politics and religion. Russia and ethnic Russians are the inheritor of this culture and religion lock, stock and barrel, and study of Byzantium explains a very great deal about Russia and Russians and points you in the direction of further studies.

The context

The events in Kiev starting in very late November and going on to today. The current government in Kiev came to power by way of a coup d'etat in late February of this year. Shortly after that coup the citizens of Crimea and Sevastopol felt threatened by the new government and seized power in Crimea and Sevastopol. Shortly after seizing power the citizens ask Russia for help and protection. Russian responded with alacrity and within a few days Russian forces landed in and around Kerch from Novorossiysk. The assistance to Crimea was a bloodless accomplishment but in the event all the Ukrainian Army, Navy and Air Force based in Crimea were surrounded and cut off. Many immediately surrendered and the soldiers and sailors were offered the choice of repatriation to Ukraine with their families or to join the Russian Federation Armed Forces. Roughly 80% of the soldiers and sailors, both officers and rankers, opted to join the Russian Armed Forces. This tells a great deal about the morale of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. For 23 years the various Ukrainian governments had treated the armed forces budgets as a cash cow to be milked to oblivion. The soldiers and sailors for the most part in Crimea, and in reality of all Ukraine, were poorly equipped, poorly trained, poorly fed and many of the lower ranks had not been paid since November. Their armored vehicles, equipment, weapons and ships were a disgrace. At least 8 of the Ukraine Navy ships were refused repatriation by Kiev and are in the bone yard at Inkerman being cut up for scrap as I write or scheduled to be towed there shortly. Some tanks, BTR's and BMP's had not moved for literally years and had to be towed to the rail heads for repatriation to Ukraine. Of the 39 aircraft at Belbek Air Base 4 were airworthy. The others could not fly and some had been cannibalized to keep the 4 serviceable aircraft flying.

After Crimea voted to become part of the Russian Federation and were accepted in the Federation, several regions in the east of Ukraine became dissatisfied with the new government in Kiev and started to demand more autonomy from Kiev, in other words they wanted to elect their own leaders and administration heads and do away with the Kiev appointed heads of same as was the practice for 20 odd years. Kiev refused and Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast then seized their local governments, ousted most of the appointed department heads and declared themselves independent. Kiev promptly sent units of the Ukraine Army to quell the unrest and most of the units refused to fight their fellow countrymen and in some cases changed sides and turned their armored vehicles over to the new Donbas Republic's armed forces. This is to be expected in an army where most of the lower ranks are conscripts, in for a year or two and then gone. The main fallacy of the Ukraine Armed Forces is they do not have a professional non commissioned officer corp, in other words sergeants, as a general rule. In the basic infantry units the sergeants are generally a conscript who has a bit more education or other attributes that set him a slight cut above the average conscript. He is selected and usually but not always sent to a short 'sergeant school', returns to his assigned unit and is then out when his conscription term us over. Sergeants are the backbone of a modern army and have been for well over 100 years. They are the 'shop supervisors' so to speak and translate the officer's orders in to words and actions the troops understand and perform. Without professional and long service sergeants the junior and senior lieutenants have to do the sergeant's work in addition to their own work. This adversely affects the work of the lieutenants and often results in their captains doing some of the lieutenant's work, which in turn adversely affects the captains work.

Basic weapons

The basic infantry weapon in the Ukraine Army is the AK 47 and it's later derivative the AK 74.

The AK 47 is an old design but reliable to an extreme. The weapon was designed as an automatic rifle for a very large conscript army and is quite simple and inexpensive to manufacture. It is easy and simple to field strip and maintain and it generally is not affected by the dirt and debris present on all battlefields. I have no idea how many rounds of ball and blank I have fired from one but it is certainly in the many thousands in both training and operations and I have never had that weapon fail to operate reliably nor have I had a single instance of the weapon jamming and failing to fire. 

I have also seen many other varieties of rifles and automatic hand held weapons, most notable being in one video an SKS semi automatic rifle was seen dating from, if my memory is correct, right after the second world war, a PPSh41 of World War 2 fame, short, stubby and with a round drum magazine attached to the bottom of the weapon and basically a lead hose that is not much use at ranges over 200m if that, and a Maxim machine gun on a metal two wheeled hand pulled carriage probably dating from the first world war. I did not see any ammunition for the Maxim so it may have been just for show. The first two I have seen in the hands of both the Federalists and the Kiev troops.

Both the Federalists and the Ukraine Army use the Automat Kalashnikov in it's many variants, both the 47 and the 74.

The medium machine guns generally seen in the Donbas and Lugansk area are mostly of the PK variety. The PK went in service in the early 1960's and and is still standard issue today. The weapon was designed by Mikhail Kalashnikov of AK fame. It is a reliable and simple machine, easy to use, clean and maintain and quite robust. It feeds from the right side using either open belted ammunition or boxed belts, the box attached to the bottom of the weapon receiver housing. The weapon fires the standard Russian round of 7.62 x 54 size, ever so slightly longer than the NATO round of the same caliber. Cyclic rate is between 700 and 800 rounds per minute and range is optimistically listed at 100 to 1500 meters. The weapon fires from the 'open bolt' system. When you release the trigger the weapon fires the round in the chamber and the bolt locks open rather than staying closed as on the AK variants. This it to facilitate belt changes when milliseconds count. The weapon is usually seen with a bipod attached to the front of the barrel but is also capable of being used on a tripod.

When listing the cyclic rate of an automatic weapon, in particular a machine gun, while the instruction sheet tells you that for instance the weapon will deliver up to 800 rounds per minute, the gunner does not want to fire that many rounds in one minute. The normal gunners rate of fire is in 3 to 6 round bursts. The only time you will hear sustained firing of a machine gun is generally when there is either a massive target of opportunity or if the bad guys are close enough to see the whites of their eyes. To fire a sustained burst of 800 rounds in one minute will lead to rapid barrel erosion and overheating and may well jam the weapon. This can put you in a decidedly awkward situation when the bad guys hear the weapon go silent.

Again, both the Federalists and the Ukraine Army use this weapon in several variants.

Tactics and morale

I have watched as much as time allows the videos and read both news reports and reports from other sources about the situation in the two oblasti. I will neither give the Kiev regime advice by publicly telling what I think they are doing wrong tactically nor will I reveal all I see that the Federalists are doing correctly beyond what is publicly available via news or the internet.

The coup government in Kiev was taken aback when some of the first Ukraine Army units arrived in Donbas and promptly refused to fight. Not only did they refuse to fight but some units went over to the Federalist side bringing with them their weapons and BMP light armored tracked fighting vehicles. These events were a tremendous psychological and morale boost for the Federalists. The young soldiers and their officers had been told they would be fighting 'terrorists' and 'separatists' and they were shocked when in the villages they passed through or near the local citizens, dozens of them, came unarmed and physically blocked the light armored units advancing in the direction of Slavyansk with their very bodies. After sometimes extended negotiations the units would either go over the the Federalists or simply turn around and return to their base or lager. In some instances this return to lager move had fatal consequences for some of the soldiers as they were executed by Right Sector operatives that very day. These executions were a mild variant on the old French philosophy of 'we'll execute a few soldiers for the encouragement of the others'. Reality is all armies have done this from time to time, either openly or, as the saying goes, 'accidents happen'.

The reluctance to fight their visibly unarmed fellow citizens who were obviously not terrorists and insisted to the boys that they were not separatists but simply wanted more autonomy and had no intention of leaving Ukraine was a turning point in the Donbas situation. I don't know what the coup government expected but obviously they have precisely zero experience in motivating soldiers and in tactics and strategy.

Some Ukraine Army units have fought, albeit not too well from what I know. Will the remains of the Ukraine Army fight in what is to be the final push tomorrow and Saturday? I do not know the answer to that question. Only time will tell.

Now, the 'national guard'. These units are almost exclusively right sector, the 'victors' of maidan. They have had some of the best advisors money can buy, all supplied from The West. Some of them have been trained in musketry in their extensive system of training camps in the west of Ukraine but most do not have any real military training or experience. Those who signed up for the 'national guard' units were given a crash course in 'soldier 101' lasting two weeks at best and generally less, uniformed after a fashion, armed and sent east. Will they fight? I don't know. I do know they are quite good at appearing in towns and villages suddenly and in numbers, heavily armed but never have I personally seen or heard of them actually fighting in a stand up fight. They seem to be pretty good at spreading terror amongst unarmed citizens and not much else. Most of them are highly motivated and believe in what they are doing. It remains to be seen how well they will fight when their adversaries are shooting back. They do have some numbers on their side.

The overall situation with the Ukraine Army is everything they have is now in the East. They have large numbers of BMP and BTR light armored infantry carriers and fighting vehicles. They have brought just about every tank they have that will run and some of them, while aging platforms, have been extensively upgraded and modernized with the latest night vision devices and weapon sights and quite good reactive armor packages. Most of the serviceable artillery, both towed and self propelled

Air assets are thin. When the Ukrainians first began to use their Mi24 attack helicopters, which is an excellent close support, anti personnel and anti vehicle weapon, they lost several in two days. Ukraine also has several Sukhoi ground attack aircraft and some, actual number serviceable unknown, Migs of various types. The comment of air assets being 'thin' is a bit misguiding in that the Federalists have no air assets.The Federalists do have at least a few shoulder fired anti aircraft missiles and that is what brought down the 5 known destroyed Mi24 helicopters.

Tactics on the part of the Ukriane Army have been poor. While few if any of the actual Ukraine Army units have attacked the Federalists, the Mi24 choppers do seem to be piloted by airmen who will, indeed, attack. I have watched a slow but steady incremental increase of types of attacks and weapons used by the 'national guard' units attacking the Federalists. On 17 May the first mortar shells were fired, just a few and of 82 mm caliber, fired at a Fed blocking post. Kiev nervously looked over their shoulders at the Russian Army glowering at them from across the border, saw no repercussions to the first mortar bombardment, and decided to up the ante the next day, 18 May. That day the first 12 cm mortars were used in addition to the 82 mm mortars of the day before. Also that day the first patently civilian targets were hit and one single 12 cm howitzer shell was fired. Again, no reaction from Russia.

By 20 May, with no visible reaction from Russia concerning the increasing use of heavy weapons against both civilian targets and the Federalist positions, Ukraine began to systematically bombard targets of their choosing. The number of patently civilian casualties from 15 May to 23 May numbers over 50, some dead, most wounded.

On 22 May the first overt attack by 'national guard' units against a Ukraine Army unit that refused to attack civilians occurred near Volnovakha. The tactics used by the national guard were interesting but almost standard for them of late. They arrived at the Ukraine Army lager outside the village in lime green vans and at least one white van, announced they were 'friends' and then started shooting at the Ukraine Army soldiers. While they managed to kill and wound most of the Army unit some did survive and most, after the initial surprise, fought back with spirit. Casualties in the Army unit seem to be in excess of 60 dead and wounded, on the national guard unit not as many but more than a few.After the fighting stopped and the wounded from both sides were removed, two Mi24 attack helicopters identified as 'national guard' helicopters, attacked the area and destroyed most of the trucks, ambulances and BMP's of the Ukraine Army unit and the damaged national guard vans left in place. An entire Ukraine Army armored company was thus destroyed by 'national guard' units for refusing what in reality was an illegal order, to wit, attack an unarmed village full of civilians.

This incident alone will have very serious repercussions for the Kiev government, although the international community is dead silent about the killings. It shows that if you do not do what the Kiev government tells you to do you will be killed. Every unit in the entire Ukraine Army knew of this incident within an hour of it's happening. This will adversely affect the morale and combat effectiveness of the Ukraine Army from top to bottom. It is very possible that some Ukraine units may either attack 'national guard' units or simply change sides. That remains to be seen, but it is a fact that soldiers can not be made to attack with weapons pointed at their backs from the rear. They will be just as likely to turn on the enforcers as they are to attack the perceived 'enemy'. There are already, as of 08:15 local time on 23 May, unconfirmed but reliable reports of two Ukraine Army units going over to the Federalist side.

On the Federalist side, tactics have been developed ad hoc using the available units and soldiers. They have several advantages in that most are local boys and they know the surrounding areas like the backs of their hands, having grown up there. After seizing several weapons storages in both Donetsk and Lugansk Oblast the Federalists are now reasonably well armed and supplied with ordinance including anti air missiles and anti tank weapons, antitank being both missiles and RPG's plus a few old but as new condition antitank rifles which have no trouble ventilating any BTR or BMP.

It is obvious from their tactics that they hold no area that they are willing to fight to the last man for at this moment that has been aggressed by the Kiev forces. From what I have seen on the scattered but continuous attacks on their 'blocking posts' they will generally withdraw at the first sign of national guard presence in attack mode, sit back and wait. The national guard unit will then take the post, do the obligatory 'burn the barricade' drill, take what food is lying around and leave. The Feds then return, rebuild the barricade, sit back and have lunch. The Feds have lost men in these raids but the losses have been low.

The Federalists do often attack national guard units and the one Ukraine Army unit that does seem willing to fight. The national guard units, being generally on the defensive de facto, are in the position of having to defend a large area and lack the manpower required to do that. The Nats (I will do a name change now, or a shortening of names. The Federalists will be known as the Feds, the national guard and their allies will be known as the Nats) do have many strong positions in some areas that the Feds are smart enough to not attack. However, from readily available information it is obvious that the Feds to attack and/or ambush Nat units often. They use the classic tactic of having a local preponderance of force or, as the Confederate General P. G. T. Beauregard said 150 years ago, 'I got there fustus with the mostus', in other words local superiority at the moment. Local superiority does not necessarily mean superior numbers, it can, and often does, mean local surprise and instant domination of the battle area by fire. The Feds do this drill by day or night.

These tactics seem to be working, at least for now. The Nats casualties for the last month are well in excess of 600 dead and a like number of wounded, wounded meaning anyone who is hurt one way or another badly enough to be off duty for a time to full blown intensive care. For the Feds casualties are not reliably known but have not been anywhere near the numbers of Nat casualties. Civilian casualties there are no reliable numbers for but from reliable sources do run over 200 dead and wounded in the last month in the two oblasti.

If the Kiev regime manages to attack throughout the entire area at one time they will probably win this campaign as they seem to be perfectly willing to accept civilian and military casualties and damage that would not be looked well upon if known or reported by national and international news media. The Feds are seriously, read vastly, outnumbered and woefully under equipped. The Feds have but a very few BMP light armored vehicles and a few captured BTR vehicles, almost no artillery and zero air assets. They do have excellent morale and do believe strongly in their cause.

Strategically, I don't know. I'm not bad at tactics, being just a lowly veteran sergeant, but from what I see Kiev is in the position of having to attack and attack strongly on 23 and 24 May. Their masters are adamant that they solve 'this problem' before the election scheduled for 25 May. I have no doubts that at least some, not all but some, a goodly number of 'some', of the Federalists will fight to the end to hold their very few strategic locations.In reality they have no other option, either fight to the death or be killed after the fact. Is Kiev and their international backers and masters willing to do the massive fighting this will entail in civilian areas and with the very large civilian casualties this act will entail? I think so. Will Russia intervene? I don't know and conjecture is useless on whatever actions Russia may or may not take.

Only time will tell how this unfolding tragedy will end, but my thoughts are that Ukraine as it was last October is dead and gone, never to arise again as we knew it.

(To be continued)