Chechen deja vu...

Oh God, it appears that everyday some appalling video comes out of Syria. Though these are mostly from the anti-government side, supporters of government have also produced their own share of horrors.  I know about a video of prisoners stabbed to death, and of another of prisoners being cut into pieces by a chainsaw while forced to scream "Assad is my god!".

But there is an important difference between the two sides.

While both sides have committed atrocities, at least the pro-government forces did not proclaim that they were acting lawfully or in the name of God.  They committed their atrocities away from the gaze of the crowds.  Not so the Wahabi crazies.  Just like in Chechnia, these guys actually organize public events with the sole purpose of showing such atrocities.  Just like in Chechina, they real aloud some kind of pseudo-religious sentence and then they proceeds to execute the "guilty" parties.

I think that this is an obvious and very important difference: while there are bloodthirsty maniacs on both sides (as I wrote previously), such maniacs are always present in any group of people), on the government side they act in their own, self appointed, capacity, they are not the official norm, and they don't pretend to be upholding any law.  Not so with the Wahabis: they very openly claim to be acting legally and morally, they are actually very proud of their actions, and the clearly present their atrocities no as a shameful deed, but as the norm, as the law of the land should they ever get to power.  See for yourself:



When  I see these SOBs I feel a deep sense of rage and I always have fantasies about Russian Airborne Forces simply wiping them all off the surface of the planet.  I know it is not going to happen, and I know it should not even happen.  Only the Syrians can save Syria.  And yet, if Russia is the only great power who really understand the nature of these Wahabis crazies and has the means to crush them, I have to say that part of me regrets that Russian Airborne Forces are not be send in to finally eliminate these murderous psychopaths (and I know that they would gladly oblige, given the chance, as Russian paratroopers will never forget what they saw Chechnia).

The best cure for Wahabism

At the very least, I hope that these images will be shown on Russian TV and on the RuNet (Russian speaking Internet).  The type of "deja vu" such scenes will have in most Russians will put a great deal of pressure on the Kremlin to hold strong to its current support for Assad and, possible, even strengthen Russia's help to Damascus.

The Saker

Russia prepares for the worst in Syria

The commander in chief of the Russian Airborne Forces, General Vladimir Shamanov, has confirmed rumors that the Airborne Forces have adopted a plan to evacuate Russian citizens from Syria.  While this does most definitely not mean that Russia believes that the Assad regime will fall, this does show that this is an outcome for which the Kremlin is making all necessary contingency plans.

General Shamanov

For a while already a number of Russian Navy ships, including at least two large landing ships, have been involved in various types of maneuvers in the Mediterranean and this had lead to speculation that these ships could be involved in a possible evacuation of Russian citizens from Syria.  This is a reasonable hypothesis, in particular for the port city of Tartus.  The Naval Infantry contingent upon these ships is certainly sufficient to act as a protection force during such an evacuation.  What the Airborne Forces could provide, however, is the means to evacuate Russian citizens from other Syrian cities including Damascus.

Furthermore, Russia now has the means to send in a peacekeeping force on very short notice should the creation of such a force be decided by the UNSC.

Finally, while I personally absolutely do not believe that such an option is being considered by the Kremlin, the combination of Navy and Airborne Forces does provide Russia with the means to engage in an operation similar to what the French did in Rwanda in 1994 with their Opération Turquoise: get militarily involved and prop up a collapsing regime under the guise of an evacuation operation.

I really do not think that we should read too much into all this other than the fact that all the signs are showing that Russia is preparing for pretty much any possible contingency in Syria, what the Americans call "hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and settle for anything in the middle".

The Saker

Religious officials in Russia call for the dismissal of the Defense Minister

According to the religious news website Portal Credo several officials of the Department of the Moscow Patriarchate dealing with the Armed Forces have demanded the dismissal of Defense Minister Serdiukov.

An official of the Synodal Department for Relations with Armed Forces of the Moscow Patriarchate Archpriest Alexander Ilyashenko is convinced that the Paratroopers are entitled to demand the resignation of Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, after he insulted the Hero of Russia Guard Col. Andrei Krasov. "The question must be addressed firmly, quickly and in a military fashion. He should apologize, but, regardless of whether he asks for forgiveness, or not, he should resign" - Archpriest Alexander on Oct. 18 told the Interfax-Religion.

The representative of the Russian Orthodox Church indicated that this situation shows that Serdiukov is a man who has no understanding of the army and has no authority or trust not only in the Armed Forces, but also amongst civilian men.  "How dare he offend with impunity, an old soldier!  It is necessary to change the laws so that they would prevent such an action.  In the case of an such an insult the offended person must have the right answer, and even with direct actions.  Regardless of whom is in front of him, even a  minister he has the right to slap him on the cheek " - said the outraged priest.  "However, since slapping a Minister would be a criminal action it appears that the Minister was able to act with complete impunity, and the folks from Airborne Forces are defenseless since the law against them".

It is important to stress that this clergymen does not speak for the Moscow Patriarchate or the bureaucracy running it.  The real power in the structures of the Moscow Patriarchate is in the hand of the Department of Foreign Relations which, not coincidentally, used to be run by the current Patriarch who himself has a terrible reputation in Russia.  He is a rabid ecumenist, very pro-Western, his mentor was Metropolitan Nikodim Rotov who was probably a cardinal "in petto" ("from the Latin expression "in pectore" or "in the chest"; this refers to a secret, covert, cardinal).  Very well informed sources also believe that the current Patriarch, Kirill Gundaev, is probably also a covert cardinal.  Gundaev has always been very close to the Soviet KGB who has for decades used the Moscow Patriarchate as a subsidiary [note: I am in no way criticizing or even referring to the Orthodox believers in Russia, or even to a majority of the Russian Orthodox clergy: my comments refer exclusively to the absolutely corrupt and hypocritical leadership of the Moscow Patriarchate. The Saker].  The bottom line is this: Father Alexander Ilyashenko can express his outrage at the actions of the Defense Minister, but this does in no way imply that the top apparatchiks in the Moscow Patriarchate have already sided with the Paratroopers against Serdiukov.  What Patriarch Kirill and his officials will do is wait to see "which way the winds blows" before taking sides.  In the meantime they will speak lofty words about "peaceful resolution", "forgiven offenses" and "calm".  And once the Kremlin takes a decision on how to solve this crisis, Patriarch Kirill & Co. will, of course, totally support it.

Still, the reaction of Father Alexander shows that at least in the lower clergy the sense of outrage is as strong as amongst the Paratroopers.  I can't imagine what the hell Serdiukov was thinking when he ordered the destruction of churches on 4 (four!) different occasions, but there will be a price to pay for that.  Following the quasi total destruction of 90+ percent of churches under Bolshevik rule, the clergy and faithful in Russia do not look kindly upon such policies.

There is no doubt that Serdiukov is an incompetent and offensive SOB who needs to go.  The question is whether the Kremlin will understand that.

The Saker

Major crisis in Russia opposes Airborne Troops to Defense Minister

A major and truly unprecedented crisis is taking place in Russia.  It opposes the Union (of the personnel) of the Airborne Forces to the Russian Defense Minister Anatolyi Serdiukov.  Today, a 3 star General read an appeal of the Airborne Forces Union to the Nation, the President, The Federal Assembly and to the Patriarch of Russia.  Here is the video of this appeal:

This is a machine translation of this appeal:

Appeal paratroopers to the people,
President, the Federal Assembly of Russia,
Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia.

Egregious case of hazing and rudeness Defense Minister A. Serdyukov, in relation to our comrade Hero of Russia one. Colonel Andrei Krasov (head of the Ryazan branch of the Combined Arms Academy of the Armed Forces) has occurred, the 09/30/2010
Visiting Training Center "Selce" near Ryazan, Anatoly Serdyukov in rough form, swearing insulting the Hero of Russia, Colonel Andrei Krasov, humiliated him in from of his subordinates in his professional and personal dignity.  He also offended the religious feelings of the Airbone Troops, who with their voluntary donations  built in "Selce" The Church of Elijah the Prophet - the spiritual patron of the troops. And this is the fourth church that Anatoly Serdyukov ordered demolished.
Such actions and tyranny were already committed by him in the past. This man has no credibility with the troops,  the veterans or the population. He has shown the inability to lead troops in the conflict to force Georgia to peace in August 2008. We remember the news when the President "told Defense Minister on the progress of military operations and development operations, and not vice versa.
Today, the Airborne forces are being deliberately subjected to sophisticated persecutions by the Defense Minister, including:
- The Airborne Academy was separated from the Airborne Force and were subordinated to an outsider to permanently eradicate the "spirit of the victory" of the officers who protect Russia from disintegration and humiliation and brought glory to the Motherland in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Yugoslavia, Georgia;
-The Headquarters of the Airborne Forces were moved 300 km away Moscow.  Now the orders of the Supreme Command might be delayed by  8-10 hours, there is no guarantee of  their secrecy;
- Critical elements of the Airborne Forces were disbanded which in the past allowed them to act independently in remote and isolated areas. Now there is nobody to defend Russia's interests;
-For the troops halted pre-conscription training of military specialties (except drivers). Parents now have to pay the Aero Clubs for the parachute training of their children who wish to serve in the Airborne Forces;
The status of the 242nd training center and of the airborne assault brigades has been intentionally diminished in comparison with similar units in other branches of the military;
 A unique museum 80-year history of the army, which gave hundreds of Homeland Heroes, of which more than half were decorated posthumously has been destroyed. It is in all countries this would be called vandalism.
The International Union of paratroopers and commandos Union of Russia (135 organizations, 35,000 members and hundreds of thousands of sympathizers, carrying out patriotic education and training of youth for military service in 64 regions of Russia) appeal to the President of Russia to investigate these facts and take appropriate action.
The lives of our comrades,  and their long-term service to the people of Russia allow us to claim this moral satisfaction.  To insult the Hero of Russia Andrei Krasov - is to insult to all the defenders of our homeland. We appeal to the parties, public and religious organizations; to veterans and youth, which are only preparing themselves to serve in the army and to the country's citizens - support our demand!
We reserve the right take initiatives to defend the honor and dignity of our soldiers!

Chairman of the Union of Russian paratroopers "
full Chevalier Order of Service to the Motherland in the USSR Armed Forces "
Colonel General Vladislav Achalov

Chairman of the International Union of paratroopers
Hero of the Soviet Union,
Lieutenant General Albert Slyusar

This appears to be a very serious situation and it is not a coincidence that the photo of the current Commander of the Airborne Forces, General Shamanov, was displayed (next to the large image of the founder of the VDV General Margelov) during the recordng of this appeal - he must have tacitly approved of it.  In fact the conflict between Defense Minister Serdiukov and General Shamanov has been brewing for a long while already.

It is important to mention here that Serdiukov's idea of "reform" is the gradual dismantlement of the two most combat capable branches of the Russian armed forces: the Special Designation ("Spetsnaz") Brigades and the Airborne Forces.  As a result of Serdiukov's attempts to basically castrate the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) and the Spetsnaz Forces it controls, the head of the GRU, General Valentin Korabelnikov, resigned in protest. In contrast, General Shamanov stayed and successfully prevented Serdiukov from eliminating one of the most famous and prestigious of all the Airborne Division of Russia (the 106th).  Considering that the Airborne and Special Designation Forces are by far the most capable and vitally needed forces of the entire Russian military (as they have proven over and over again), these systematic attempts to weaken them can only be considered gross incompetence at best, outright sabotage at worst.

The very fact of having a civilian Minister of Defense is already a very bad decision.  But at least a semi-competent one with some understanding of military matters would have been better than what Russia has today: a former furniture salesman and, later, Deputy Minister of the Russian tax service.

To fully understand how amazing these events are one has to fully appreciate how utterly unbelievable it is to have an entire branch of the Russian armed forces openly rebelling this way; what this appeal really is is a demand that Serdiukov be fired.  If Medvedev has any common sense left at all he will have to agree to replace Serdiukov.  No, not because the VDV will stage a coup, but because such an open and vehement condemnation of Serdiukov by the most elite and most admired part of the armed forces is a political death sentence for this man.  He can stay, of course, but he will be openly reviled and hated.  Furthermore, at this point its either Serdiukov or Shamanov and considering how popular Shamanov is, the regime would deeply alienate a large part of the Russian public opinion if it sided with the incompetent and hated Minister of Defense.

Finally, it is worth remembering here that Serdiukov was not appointed by Medvedev, but by Putin.  Nor does Putin appear to be in any way opposed to Medvedev and his policies.  Any way you put it, it appears that something very rotten is happening in Russia and Russia's betrayal of Iran at the UN is just the latest example of a new orientation of Russian policies which begin to remind me of the Eltsin years.

I really hope that the Airborne Forces, whose motto is "nobody but us", will be able to win this confrontation with a regime which is increasingly acting against the national interests of the Russian nation.

If Serdiukov stays and Shamanov is dismissed, then we will know that Medvedev's regime is serving foreign interests.  What will happen then is anyone's guess.

The Saker

Kosovo Case in the International Court of Justice: Time to Shed Illusions

by Pyotr Iskenderov for the Strategic Culture Foundation

On July 22, the UN International Court of Justice in the Hague will issue its opinion on the status of Kosovo, the breakaway province which unilaterally declared independence from Serbia on February 17, 2008. For the first time in its history, the Court is to judge on the legality of the proclamation of independence by a territory of a UN-member country without the consent of the latter. The ruling is sure to set a precedent for scores of likewise cases, including those in the post-Soviet space.

The International Court of Justice has been looking into the legality of the unilaterally proclaimed Kosovo independence from the standpoint of international law since the fall of 2008. The request was submitted to the Court by the UN General Assembly following Serbia's demand. After heated debates, the delegations voted in Belgrade's favor: 77 voted for having the case examined by the International Court of Justice, 6 voted against, and 74 abstained. The countries which chose to abstain were mostly the EU members which at the time regarded Kosovo's independence as a decided matter but did agree that Serbia had the right to present its position in the Court. The countries which voted against were the US and Albania as the key architects of the Kosovo independence and a number of Asia-Pacific countries.

The International Court of Justice was supposed to unveil its ruling in April, 2010 but, as the media found out, serious disagreements surfaced among the Court judges and the process took longer than initially expected. Moreover, there were indications that the West deliberately postponed the ruling to exert additional pressure on Belgrade over the extradition of former commander of the army of Bosnian Serbs R. Mladic to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia.

At the moment it is clear that the architects of the new world order are not going to wait any longer, especially considering that the ruling will yet have to be examined by the UN General Assembly which is entitled to make the final decision. Serbia's foreign minister V. Jeremic said the Court verdict would not put the final dot in the dispute over Kosov. He projected that the struggle over votes in the UN General Assembly would be much more serious. Jeremic said Belgrade realized that it would have to face aggressive and heavily funded Albanian propaganda and demands to drop its position, but stressed that Serbia should do its best to preserve domestic political unity and that the peaceful diplomatic struggle for Serbia's territorial integrity and a compromise over Kosovo and Metohija should continue. Jeremic expressed the hope that the verdict of the International Court of Justice would become a moment of truth and ring a warning to those in Pristina who thought they would be able to tailor the international law to their wishes. Are there real grounds for Jeremic's optimism and what verdict can we expect from the International Court of Justice?

One of Serbia's officially stated objectives behind getting the case examined by the International Court of Justice was to impede the recognition of Kosovo's independence across the world. To an extent, the plan has worked. Whereas 48 countries recognized the independence of Kosovo within the term of six months prior to the October 8, 2008 UN General Assembly's decision to send the Kosovo case to the International Court of Justice, only 21 country did the same over nearly two years since the date. As of today, the independence of Kosovo is recognized by 69 of the 192 UN countries. On the other hand, only one country – Costa-Rica – stated officially that it may reverse its decision depending on the Court verdict. As for the EU, the countries still denying recognition to Kosovo are Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Romania, and Slovakia.

Serbia's problem is that the disposition in the International Court of Justice happens to be the opposite of that in the UN General Assembly. In the Court, 9 of 15 judges including the presiding one represent Japan, Sierra Leone, Jordan, the US, Germany, France, New Zealand, Somali, and Great Britain, namely the countries which have recognized the independence of Kosovo. The opposite position is espoused by Slovakia, Mexico, Morocco, Russia, Brazil, and China. Therefore, Serbia's other officially stated goal – to achieve international acknowledgement of the illegitimacy of the unilateral proclamation of independence by Kosovo – appears unrealistic.

There is information that in the past several months the International Court of Justice judges considered three potential rulings. The first one can be indefinitely worded, contain condemnations of both the Kosovo unilateralism and Serbia's politics under S. Milosevic, and say neither Yes nor No to the independence of Kosovo. This gentle option will materialize if Serbia capitulates in what concerns the extradition of Mladic.

The second potential ruling, which was mainly advocated by France, was supposed to carry the statement by International Court of Justice that the issue is purely political and can only be addressed at the level of the UN Security Council. The scenario does appear improbable at least because to make such a statement the Court would not have had to get bogged on the case since October, 2008 or hold closed hearings in December, 2009.

There is also the third potential ruling, and the current impression is that the majority of the judges are going to opt for it. The verdict can be premised in the assumption that, allegedly, the Kosovo case is unique, the coexistence of Kosovo Albanians and Serbia within a single statehood is impossible, the talks on the status of the province collapsed, and therefore the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo – and its subsequent recognition by a number of countries - were a forced step and a smaller evil. The verdict will be accompanied by the dissenting opinions of some of the judges who do not recognize the independence of Kosovo due to fundamental regards, but this will not change the fact that the verdict will be favorable to Albanians.

By the way, Kosovo administration is absolutely convinced that the coming verdict of the International Court of Justice will be news to it. Kosovo foreign minister Skender Hyseni has already broadcast the Kosovo administration's determination to gain control over the whole territory of the province, which practically means subduing its northern, Serb-populated part. The verdict of the International Court of Justice can provide a legal backing for the hard-line policy.

While the judicial contest over Kosovo is likely lost for Serbia and the countries supporting it, the long-term repercussions of the coming verdict and the role it can play in other conflict cases should be assessed from a broader perspective. The conclusions and even more so the arguments of the International Court of Justice will be studied carefully with an eye to similar conflicts, including those in the Caucasus and other parts of the post-Soviet space. The options open to Russia in this context certainly deserve attention.

From the outset, the Russian leadership stated quite reasonably that its decision to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was based on an understanding of the situation in the Caucasus and not in any way on the Kosovo precedent. Nevertheless, the fact that the International Court of Justice would express no opposition to the independence of Kosovo would automatically weaken the West's case against the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Russia. Moreover, opportunities would arise to subject to an overhaul the general principles of conflict resolution in the Balkan and the Caspian regions, for example, in Bosnia, Macedonia, or Karabakh. In fact, Russia is confronted with the following dilemma. As far as the international law and the territorial integrity principles are concerned, Moscow would certainly prefer to see the International Court of Justice issue a pro-Serbian verdict, but a Realpolitik approach can help discern alternative horizons in the situation, and then the Serbian cause is not completely lost regardless of what the Court eventually says. Perhaps, it is time for Moscow to shed counterproductive illusions in domestic politics and geopolitics. Unlike Belgrade's efforts aimed at securing the Serbian interests in the Balkan region and supporting Serbs in Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and elsewhere, the plan centered around the International Court of Justice has never looked really promising.

Petr Iskenderov is a senior research fellow at the Institute for Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Science and an international commentator at Vremya Novstey and the Voice of Russia.

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Commentary: The court, predictably, did what it was expected to do: in the words of the BBC, the International Court of Justice rejected Serbian claims that the move had violated its territorial integrity. One may wonder what it would take to actually "violate Serbian sovereignty" if an illegal seizure by a alliance of foreign powers and a violent imposition of a new sovereignty does not.

The International Court of Justice also seems to have 'forgotten' the admittedly 'minor' 'detail' that the NATO aggression against Yugoslavia was absolutely illegal. Just like the 'liberal' pundits who blame Dubya for his illegal war forget that it was Clinton who engaged in the first such aggressions.

Truly, the absolute hypocrisy of international community towards the issue of the wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo is without precedent. When these wars took place, the international community, the pundits, the journalists, the commenators - in one word everybody, showed an amazing, breathtaking lack of integrity, honesty or courage. Basically, the big powers wanted to make an example being smashing Yugoslavia and nobody said word.

The famous words of Pastor Martin Niemöller about how "First they came..." were forgotten or, more accurately, ignored.  As they say in the USA, when you head is in the sand, your ass is in the air and what began in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo lead directly to what happened later in Iraq and is about to happen in Iran.  Somehow, nobody understood that what happened in the former Yugoslavia was not only the end of a mult-cultural state in the Balkans, but the death of international law.  Just as the infamous 1938 Kristallnacht was not about broken storefronts but about the end of the rule of law and ushering into a new era of endless violence and murder, so the NATO wars in the Balkans ushered us all into the era of endless wars of aggression.

I can hardly express my total disgust with this topic and with all the parties involved - Serbs included (for those who forgot, the "Serbian Serbs" - those in rump Yugoslavia - agreed to impose a blockade on the Bosnian Serbs; nowadays the Serbian government is basically a stooge for the EU and NATO).  The only people who had the guts to do the right thing were the Russian paratroopers who dashed from Bosnia into Pristina but who were betrayed by the Elstin regime.  You know the motto of the Russian paratroopers?  "Никто кроме нас" (Nobody except us).  How true and how sad.

The Saker