Official - China Recognises Crimean Referendum

by Alexander Mercouris

"OFFICIAL - CHINA RECOGNISES CRIMEAN REFERENDUM"

This is the clear meaning of the statement TASS reports that a senior official of the Chinese Foreign Ministry has made. 

The fact that China recognises the Crimean referendum means that de facto (and surely before long de jure) China has recognised Crimea's unification with Russia.  Note also that the official has expressed support for Russia's Ukrainian policy.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/760944

This is the clearest statement from an official source (as opposed to the news media) of China's position viz the Ukrainian crisis that China has made to date.  Because it is made by an official rather than a minister it has gone almost unnoticed.  However that is how China works: statements of this sort are first floated in the media, then made formally but at a relatively low level, following which they become uncontested policy.  Suffice to say that it is inconceivable that the official in question would have spoken out in this way without clearance from the very highest levels of the Chinese government and the fact that in his conversation to TASS he actually quotes comments made by Xi Jinping in telephone conversations with Putin puts that question beyond doubt.

I have always felt that the Chinese dimension in influencing Russia's Ukrainian policy is consistently underestimated.  I am sure that every single step Moscow has taken since the start of the Ukrainian crisis has been discussed and coordinated with Beijing at the highest possible level.  We should not make the mistake of thinking that the only conversations between Putin and Xi Jinping are those that are officially or publicly  reported.  The Chinese do not want to be seen taking an active or public role in the Ukrainian crisis - which formally speaking has nothing to do with them - but given the importance of China's support for Russia and the importance of Russia to China, it is a certainty that the two sides have been working closely together with each other and that they are discussing every aspect of this crisis all the time.  Knowledge that he has China's support is one reason for Putin's confidence in his dealings with the US and the Europeans.

The need to coordinate with Beijing does however place certain constraints on Moscow's actions.  Again I am sure that one reason amongst many why Russia has been wary of intervening actively in the Donbas or of formally recognising the various votes there is because it knows that doing so too obviously or too hastily would not be welcome in Beijing.  

China is traditionally very wary of independence declarations (a policy restated with specific reference to the Ukraine by the official quoted by TASS) not because it is worried about Xinjiang or Tibet (where the situation is fully under control) as the west alleges but because it does not want to create a precedent for Taiwan.  

Again I do not think many people especially in the west but also in Russia understand what a sensitive issue for China Taiwan is.  Suffice to say that a key reason for the Sino Soviet split of the 1960s was precisely Mao  Zedong's anger at what he correctly saw as a lack of support from Moscow over Taiwan.

That does not mean Novorossian independence will not happen or that either the Russians or indeed the Chinese are reconciled to the results of the Maidan coup or to the survival of the present regime in Kiev.  Both countries perceive the sort of staged US backed "revolutions" that the Maidan coup was, as a direct challenge and threat to themselves.  Both countries are almost certainly agreed that the results of the coup in a key Eurasian state must be reversed. Note how the official, in the clearest possible sign that he is speaking on behalf of the Chinese government, quotes a previously unreported but very revealing remark Xi Jinping said to Putin in one of their telephone conversations, that "there is no smoke without fire".  No guesses who or what that refers to.  

However the joint policy of reversing the effects of the Maidan coup is going to be done incrementally, step by step, for many reasons of which China's concerns about Taiwan are just one. 

Anyway, to those who think there is some division between Beijing and Moscow both over the Crimean issue and over the Ukrainian crisis generally, this statement from an official of the Chinese government should finally and once and for all put that question to rest: there is none.

The US shale gas canard

Dear friends,

Several of you have asked my opinion about the article by U.S. Prepares to Gas Russia Into Submission by Glenn Ford.  I don't have the time for a detailed reply, but I will say this: the entire notion of US shale fracking sent to Europe to undermine Russia is a canard. Not only does the entire infrastructure for this project need to be built - at huge costs - but it would take several years. Several absolutely critical years as the crisis in Crimea has forced Putin and his "Eurasian Sovereignists" (for an explanation of these terms see here, here and here) to "come out of the closet" and openly confront the AngloZionist empire and now this is a race against time: will the Empire have the time and means to disengage Russia from the West before Russia realigns itself with China and the rest of Asia or will the West be dependent on Russia long enough to allow Russia to realign?  I am quite confident that Russia will win this race, which makes the entire issue of us gas irrelevant.

Speaking of China and the West: consider that China's energy needs are immense, as they are in most of Asia and add to this that under Obama (did this guy ever ever do something not stupid?!) the US has openly adopted a new anti-Chinese policy which aims at "containing" China, i.e. preventing it form acquiring the type of influence which it would naturally have in the Asian-Pacific region.  The Chinese are not stupid, they know that they are next in line for "democracy" and "freedom" and they understand that without Russian help (energy, weapons, political) they cannot resist the Empire. Bottom line, both China and Russia must enter into a deep symbiosis (if not a formal "alliance") and help each other.  And there is no doubt in my mind at all the both Putin and Xi Jinping are both doing exactly that.

As for Europe - it is a depressed economy, a socially bankrupt continent, and a US protectorate.  The Kremlin understands all that, and while they will be more than happy to sell energy (or anything else) to the EU, they know that they cannot make any long-term plans with such partners: the AngloZionist Empire is an existential threat to Russia and Europe is just a US protectorate with no personal opinion, identity or policy other than "yes, Mr. President, whatever you say Mr. President".

China, India, Asia, Latin America and, especially, the Russian North - that is the future of Russia, not the West.  So all these sanctions can achieve is to accelerate this process.

Those who think that they can put Russian into submission are just as delusional as Hitler in 1945 with his talks about a "strategic counteroffensive": just ignore them.

Cheers,

The Saker

PS: two interesting reads about energy:

Shale Gas: The View from Russia

Ukraine, Russia and the nonexistent U.S. oil and natural gas "weapon"

First results from the Russia-China partnership

Results from the new Russian-Chinese strategic partnership are coming in fast.

First, Russia has agreed to sell China 4 advanced diesel-electric submarines of the "Lada" class (aka Project 677):

Project 677

This type of submarine is one of the most advanced in its class, even superior to its formidable predecessor the "Kilo" class Project 636 which was already so silent that it was nicknamed the "Black Hole" because for its ability to avoid detection.  Lada class submarines excel in many roles including anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare and reconnaissance, and it has an advanced automated combat system.

Second, Russia will also sell China 24 of its advanced SU-35 multi-role combat aircraft:

SU-35

The Sukhoi SU-35 is considered a 4++ generation aircraft meaning that while the airframe is still of the 4th generation, the systems installed on-board are already of the 5th generation.  Though these are very different aircraft, it is widely admitted that the only aircraft which could match or even exceed the formidable capabilities of the SU-35 in air-to-air combat would be the American F-22 (in the ground attack role the SU-35 is far more capable than the F-22).

In other words, China is now acquiring the kind of military hardware which no other Asian country possesses and which will present the United States with a very serious challenge.

Third, Russia and China also signed a huge energy deal.  The WSJ reports:

After more than a decade of talks, Russia has agreed to supply China with natural gas, a deal that could see China surpass Germany as the largest importer of Russian gas.  Officials Friday signed a raft of other energy agreements, including one to double Russian oil supplies and hand China's state oil company a stake in Russian oil fields, tightening the nexus between Russia, the world's largest energy producer, and China, the hungriest consumer.   Chinese President Xi Jinping, in Moscow on his first foreign trip as leader, called the accords a "breakthrough" at a signing ceremony in the Kremlin Friday. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the visit would have "long-term, historic results."  Russian state gas giant OAO Gazprom  said it would conclude a 30-year supply deal with the Chinese by the end of the year, just as the company is struggling with declining demand and regulatory pressure in its core market of Europe.  Under the terms of the memorandum, annual deliveries of 38 billion cubic meters of gas will start in 2018. Supplies could eventually reach 60 billion cubic meters a year, Gazprom Chief Executive Alexei Miller told reporters after the signing ceremony. Germany, long the largest consumer of Russian gas, imported 33 billion cubic meters last year.

One particularly interesting aspect of all this are the comments made by the state-run China Daily which described this strategic partnerships as "a well-deserved riposte to Washington for America's military 'pivot' to Asia. Xi is executing China's own 'pivot' - the visit to Moscow to cement ties with Mr Putin.  Xi's decision to make Moscow the destination of his first official visit as China's president will give the US a sharp reminder that it is not the only power able to flex its muscles" the report, translated by BBC Monitoring, went on.

No kidding!

The Saker

Defense Ministers Chang Wanquan and Sergei Shoigu

Russia between Cyprus and China

The last couple of days have been truly of immense, historical, importance for Russia, first because of the hugely important visit of  Xi Jinping, the President of the People's Republic of China, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, and the Chairman of the Central Military Commission. During this visit the Chinese side stressed that it was highly symbolic that Xi Jinping had chosen Russia as the first country to visit following his election.  The Russians responded with their own highly symbolic gesture - they invited Xi Jinping to visit the Operational Control Center of the Russian Armed Forces, something no other head of state had ever done before.

Xi Jinping visits the Operational Control Center of the Russian Armed Forces

Both sides insisted that what took place was absolutely unprecedented.  For example, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin spent a total of seven hours in direct, face to face, consultations.  Both heads of state declared that the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership was of the highest possible importance for both countries and that the two nations would closely collaborate on all levels including long term energy and defense issues.  A large number of strategic agreements and contracts were signed and both Putin and Xi Jinping announced that Russia and China would also closely work together and support each other in all international questions.  Both leaders stressed that the past was forever gone and that the nature of the new relationship between their two countries will have no historical precedent.

While the western corporate press went out of its way to minimize the importance of this meeting, the Russian and the Chinese press stressed the truly tectonic shift such a close partnership represents for the future of the planet.  While everything was said in the most diplomatic language, it is rather clear that what we witnessed over the past few days is the birth of a new strategic alliance which is rather clearly aimed against the West both in economic and even military terms.  The goal of Russia and China is not to trigger some kind of confrontation with the West as much as it is to globally counter-act Western imperialism.  This is why both delegations insisted on the respect of international law in a multi-polar world were no one country or block can dictate its will.

It will be interesting to see what the impact of this strategic alliance will be upon the SCO, the CSTO and the BRICS countries.  My personal sense is that Russia and China will use their combined power to strengthen all these institutions.  I also see this strategic alliance as yet another manifestation of the new power of the "Eurasian sovereignists" inside the Kremlin who are now clearly pushing Russia towards a deeper integration with the East.

It is ironic that while this new strategic partnership between Russia and China was finalized in Moscow, the West found nothing better to do than to basically commit and act of pure highway banditry towards Russia.  I am referring, of course, to what is happening in Cyprus.

To make a long story short I will sum up what is taking place in the following sentence.  The EU bankers and their US sponsors have basically decided to rob Russian bank account holders of about 30% of  their money in Cyprus in order to repay the banks which gave dirty loans to Cyprus, in other words, to pay themselves.  Not only is such an action a direct violation of all possible laws and regulations pertaining to banking, but it is done against a background of vicious anti-Russian propaganda which basically claims that all the Russian money in Cyprus is dirty money from the Russian Mafia.  What the EU leaders are basically telling Russia is "yes, fuck you, we will simply take your money and dare you to do something about it".

Interestingly, the Russia media is very much aware of who is really pulling the strings of this entire operation and no Russian politician spoke out against the Cypriots themselves who are, in reality, as much the victims of the international banking cartels as the Russian investors.  The line chosen by Russian politicians and the media is the same one: what is happening here has little or nothing to do with Cyprus and everything to do with the entire EU zone becoming dangerous for Russian investors. 

The Russian economy will not suffer from any of that.  First, because Cyprus is way too small to matter.  Second, this situation only strengthens the position of the "Eurasian sovereignists" who have always been warning against placing money in Western banks.  Third, this act of banditry by the EU will only further fuel anti-Western sentiments in the already very hostile Russian public opinion and it will hurt all the pro-Western parties and movements in Russia.

The vast majority of the people in Russia see what is happening in Cyprus as yet another manifestation of the Western anti-Russian racism which appears to be the prime motivator of current Western policies towards Russia.  For example, Russian journalists were quick to remember that the last time somebody in Europe simply seized the bank accounts of foreigners was Hitler who did so to grab more money to finance his policies.  While I find this parallel a little far fetched, it is, I believe, very indicative of the mood in Russia which is deeply disgusted with the West.  This is hardly surprising: after the NATO expansion to the East (which it has promised not to do!), the support by the West for all the anti-Russian regimes, including the most aggressive (Georgia) and racist (Latvia), following the deployment of the US anti-missile system, the support for Jewish oligarchs like Berezovsky or Khodorkovsky, the support for Chechen separatists and their atrocities, the adoption of anti-Russian laws like the Magnitsky Act, the support for Pussy Riot and the homosexual parades in Russia, now the big Cypriot robbery.  It is hardly a wonder that the Russians are globally disgusted with the West and its seemingly infinite capability for hypocrisy and lies.

Still, the creation of this strategic partnership between China and Russia is excellent news for the world wide resistance against the US-run international global new world order and its turbocapitalist ideology.  Both Russia and China clearly and unambiguously stand for the ideas of sovereignty and social solidarity, in other words, what is arguably the most powerful alliance on the planet is clearly anti-capitalist in its ideological basis.  Sure, this is not the anti-capitalism of Stalin or Mao, and both Russia and China are more than happy to play the corporate game to their own benefit, but it remains that they are not willing to surrender their sovereignty to the trans-national banking interests and nor are they willing to give up the core value of social solidarity (what most Americans think of as "socialism") in their society.

At a time when Latin America is clearly wobbling and unsure about its future course and when Africa is becoming the next hunting ground for Western predators, it is extremely encouraging to see the emergence of a strategic alliance between the two most powerful countries to resist Western imperialism and the New World Order.

The Saker