Showing posts with label Cyprus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cyprus. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Cyprus, Russia and a geopolitics chess amateur
by Kakaouskia
It was with interest that I saw the Saker mentioning today that the government cabinet in Cyprus is actually considering granting Russia's "wish" for an air force base on the island.
Being a Cypriot, I would like to take this opportunity to provide a - very brief - history lesson for the community as well as some thoughts on the matter.
Brief history
Cyprus became "independent" from being a UK colony (since 1878) in 1960 following a 5 year guerrilla-type resistance movement which had the peculiarity of seeing more Cypriots being killed by the rebels as "traitors to the cause" - read Communists and leftist in general - than British troops.
Cyprus Republic was then imposed with a British-made constitution, which under the guise of equality made things completely unworkable and allowed Greece and Turkey to each legally have about thousand soldiers on the island. In an attempt to find stability, Cyprus joined the Non-Aligned Movement in 1961. Things collapsed within three years, resulting in one of the longest missions of the UN to date as both sides formed militias (guided by the respective “Motherlands”) and attacked each other. In 1974, following a coup-d’état against the Cypriot president carried out by Greek Junta-guided elements of the Cyprus Army, an all-out war broke out between Turkey and Cyprus which resulted in Cyprus losing about 38% of the island to Turkey. This is the only war so far where forces from two NATO countries (Greece and Turkey) openly fought each other; although formal war was not declared.
Military interests and a fine middle-east deadlock
Parting Cyprus, apart from being a guarantor to Cyprus's independence (along with Greece and Turkey), the UK kept a few pieces of prime real estate around the island namely:
- R.A.F Akrotiri, an all important Sovereign Base Area. In the words of UK's MOD, "RAF Akrotiri is an extremely busy Permanent Joint Operating Base that supports ongoing operations in Afghanistan as well as support for the Sovereign Base area on the Island of Cyprus. It is used as a forward mounting base for overseas operations in the Middle East and for fast jet training." Akrotiri is only 50Km away - in a straight flight line - from Paphos base.
True to that, Eurofighter Typhoons are stationed there as well as Tornado jets conducting sorties all over the Middle East plus the occasional U2s flights - see video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIP4W9_hwkI)
- R.A.F Troodos, formally a signals station, effectively a big radar and intelligence gathering facility.
- Dhekelia army base
Note that Akrotiri and Dhekelia are called Sovereign Base Areas and have their own police force, even courts.
Apart from the British, almost everybody else in the area is or was involved with Cyprus militarily one way or the other. Cyprus was caught in the Arab-Israeli wars with terrorist attacks rocking the island in the early 80s. In 1978, Egyptian commandos attacked Larnaca Airport in an attempt to rescue hostages taken by Palestinians; this resulted in a heavy firefight between Cyprus National Guard and the Egyptian commandos. Syria was also involved in this by sending their military attaché to help negotiate then surrender of the Egyptians.
Israel has been warming up to Cyprus in recent years after the discovery of adjoining gas reserves. Military exercises between the two countries have taken place involving substantial forces (in Greek). These exercises were prompted in part by Cyprus being equipped with similar Russian armaments like Syria. Two years ago the then defence minister was pushing for the purchase of two Israeli-made gun boats.
United States is of course claiming a stake in the island, mostly utilising British military bases and largely staying in the shadow, pulling strings from their embassy. It was noted in the local press that some key right-wing politicians were getting marching orders from the US ambassador.
Cyprus has tried over the years to decently equip its armed forces but every time it turned to the East, something has happened. The first attempt was in the mid-60s, early 70s, when then president Archbishop Makarios turned to the Soviet Union. While some old armaments were delivered like T-34 tanks and a few torpedo boats, the big item which was the SA-2 SAM system was not, despite Cypriots being trained in Russia. This had the effect of the Cyprus National Guard fighting the 1974 war against Turkey using the T-34s and Marmon Herrington armoured vehicles dating back to the battle of El-Alamein in 1943.
After that, France was quite helpful in providing decent armaments until the collapse of the Soviet Union. Then president Glafkos Klerides (founder of the current governing party) saw an opportunity and ordered among other things: T80-U battle tanks, BMP-3 IFVs, BM-21s, a dozen or so Mil-Mi-35Ps and S300-PMU1 batteries. While the armour was delivered quite fast (I personally saw spare parts for the BMP3s that were inscribed with 'CCCP') and National Guard personnel regularly visits Russia for training, history repeated itself and the S300 system was never allowed by NATO to arrive; instead batteries were transferred to Crete island in Greece where they remain partially operational due to lack of funds and maintenance. They were "exchanged" with TOR-M1 batteries.
Political map and power bases
Before proceeding to comment on the military base deal, it would be prudent to give a brief picture about the political landscape. Cyprus is a presidential republic with the president having great power and the parliament controlling budget. Currently the parliament composition looks like below:
Democratic Rally (DHSY) – 20 seats: Governing party, Pro-West, right-wing with some members hating everything non-west while others being typical capitalists will not mind any deal as long as there is profit. Also have 2 members in European Parliament under the Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) – same party like Merkel. Controls one of the two biggest worker union (SEK).
Progressive Party of Working People - Left - New Forces (AKEL) – 19 seats: The evolution of the Communist Party of Cyprus, pro-Russian, most of the old guard studied in Soviet Union and speaks Russian to some degree. In identity crisis, members behaving increasingly like pure capitalists. Also have 2 members in European Parliament under the Confederal Group of the European United Left - Nordic Green Left. Controls the other big worker union (PEO).
Democratic Party (DHKO) – 9 seats: Centre-right, pro-West but mostly pro-money. Usually allies with the governing party, whoever that might be.
Movement for Social Democracy (EDEK) – 5 seats: Centre party with a modest left wing. Also have 2 members in European Parliament under the Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament. Although not exactly pro-Russia, it will be difficult to turn the other way.
European Party – 2 seats: Apostates from Democratic Rally, pro-West and heavily right-wing.
Green Party (Ecologists) – 1 seat: No real politics, go wherever the wind is blowing.
Other players include the Church of Cyprus, one of the biggest businesses, heavily pro-Russia and hard-core Capitalist and ELAM, our equivalent to Right Sector.
Current situation and the road to being obedient in EU
As to the base deal, I wish our government realises that the EU is not the alliance we dreamed it to be but a wolf pack which keeps a few spare lambs around for dinner. BBC is already posting news that according to our foreign minister, Cyprus has denied the deal. This is the same foreign minister who was quoted saying "Cyprus belongs and has always belonged to the West". Furthermore, the majority of the Cyprus "elite" was cultivated and nurtured with the mantra "West good - Russia bad" to paraphrase Orwell, despite the cultural and religious links Cypriots and Russians share. A few examples:
- Current president, Nikos Anastasiades was actively supported by Merkel in his bid for presidency two years ago and his party, Democratic Rally, is headed by a neon-liberal hardliner which would make the 1%s proud. During his election campaign, Anastasiades pledged to apply for membership into the Partnership for Peace, the gateway to NATO. Parliament members from his party at some point stated that the Mil-Mi-35s are junk and should be replaced, prompting a serious rebuff by the Russian embassy; the first time I recall an embassy officially protesting for such an event.
- In addition, a former president, Tassos Papadopoulos, was rumoured to have attempted to sell a TOR-M1 battery to the US and that his law office helped Milosevic do some serious money laundering of Serbia's money during the NATO attacks in 1999. According to CIA documents, he was funded in the 1960s in order to create a union of right-wing workers as the one created by the Communist Party of Cyprus was getting too strong. His son is now the head of the centre-right Democratic Party.
Also, when our government does help someone in the East, disasters tend to happen; for example the explosion of "confiscated" Russian ammunition bound for Syria that obliterated our only naval base and the adjoining main power plant. Cyprus does not have warships; the base was built using NATO standards and was intended for use by the Greek navy in the event of an emergency. The explosion was estimated to be almost 1 kiloton in power - a before and after image comparison here. You can see the crater of the explosion (centre-left of the image) and note that the damage to the power station was from the shockwave. Of course sabotage was ruled out immediately although how a fire in a munition depot could rage for some time while only a few meters from the sea was never answered.
To compare, Paphos airbase is located at the edge of Paphos international airport, is the only airbase in Cyprus and was also build using NATO standards. It houses our military helicopters and can support fighter planes; Greek F-16s are regular visitors.
In conclusion, I seriously do hope that this deal will go through but I will not hold my breath.
Kakaouskia is a man in mid-30s, software engineer in meat-space, avid reader of military history and fond of reading strategy analysis.
It was with interest that I saw the Saker mentioning today that the government cabinet in Cyprus is actually considering granting Russia's "wish" for an air force base on the island.
Being a Cypriot, I would like to take this opportunity to provide a - very brief - history lesson for the community as well as some thoughts on the matter.
Brief history
Cyprus became "independent" from being a UK colony (since 1878) in 1960 following a 5 year guerrilla-type resistance movement which had the peculiarity of seeing more Cypriots being killed by the rebels as "traitors to the cause" - read Communists and leftist in general - than British troops.
Cyprus Republic was then imposed with a British-made constitution, which under the guise of equality made things completely unworkable and allowed Greece and Turkey to each legally have about thousand soldiers on the island. In an attempt to find stability, Cyprus joined the Non-Aligned Movement in 1961. Things collapsed within three years, resulting in one of the longest missions of the UN to date as both sides formed militias (guided by the respective “Motherlands”) and attacked each other. In 1974, following a coup-d’état against the Cypriot president carried out by Greek Junta-guided elements of the Cyprus Army, an all-out war broke out between Turkey and Cyprus which resulted in Cyprus losing about 38% of the island to Turkey. This is the only war so far where forces from two NATO countries (Greece and Turkey) openly fought each other; although formal war was not declared.
Military interests and a fine middle-east deadlock
Parting Cyprus, apart from being a guarantor to Cyprus's independence (along with Greece and Turkey), the UK kept a few pieces of prime real estate around the island namely:
- R.A.F Akrotiri, an all important Sovereign Base Area. In the words of UK's MOD, "RAF Akrotiri is an extremely busy Permanent Joint Operating Base that supports ongoing operations in Afghanistan as well as support for the Sovereign Base area on the Island of Cyprus. It is used as a forward mounting base for overseas operations in the Middle East and for fast jet training." Akrotiri is only 50Km away - in a straight flight line - from Paphos base.
True to that, Eurofighter Typhoons are stationed there as well as Tornado jets conducting sorties all over the Middle East plus the occasional U2s flights - see video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIP4W9_hwkI)
- R.A.F Troodos, formally a signals station, effectively a big radar and intelligence gathering facility.
- Dhekelia army base
Note that Akrotiri and Dhekelia are called Sovereign Base Areas and have their own police force, even courts.
Apart from the British, almost everybody else in the area is or was involved with Cyprus militarily one way or the other. Cyprus was caught in the Arab-Israeli wars with terrorist attacks rocking the island in the early 80s. In 1978, Egyptian commandos attacked Larnaca Airport in an attempt to rescue hostages taken by Palestinians; this resulted in a heavy firefight between Cyprus National Guard and the Egyptian commandos. Syria was also involved in this by sending their military attaché to help negotiate then surrender of the Egyptians.
Israel has been warming up to Cyprus in recent years after the discovery of adjoining gas reserves. Military exercises between the two countries have taken place involving substantial forces (in Greek). These exercises were prompted in part by Cyprus being equipped with similar Russian armaments like Syria. Two years ago the then defence minister was pushing for the purchase of two Israeli-made gun boats.
United States is of course claiming a stake in the island, mostly utilising British military bases and largely staying in the shadow, pulling strings from their embassy. It was noted in the local press that some key right-wing politicians were getting marching orders from the US ambassador.
Cyprus has tried over the years to decently equip its armed forces but every time it turned to the East, something has happened. The first attempt was in the mid-60s, early 70s, when then president Archbishop Makarios turned to the Soviet Union. While some old armaments were delivered like T-34 tanks and a few torpedo boats, the big item which was the SA-2 SAM system was not, despite Cypriots being trained in Russia. This had the effect of the Cyprus National Guard fighting the 1974 war against Turkey using the T-34s and Marmon Herrington armoured vehicles dating back to the battle of El-Alamein in 1943.
After that, France was quite helpful in providing decent armaments until the collapse of the Soviet Union. Then president Glafkos Klerides (founder of the current governing party) saw an opportunity and ordered among other things: T80-U battle tanks, BMP-3 IFVs, BM-21s, a dozen or so Mil-Mi-35Ps and S300-PMU1 batteries. While the armour was delivered quite fast (I personally saw spare parts for the BMP3s that were inscribed with 'CCCP') and National Guard personnel regularly visits Russia for training, history repeated itself and the S300 system was never allowed by NATO to arrive; instead batteries were transferred to Crete island in Greece where they remain partially operational due to lack of funds and maintenance. They were "exchanged" with TOR-M1 batteries.
Political map and power bases
Before proceeding to comment on the military base deal, it would be prudent to give a brief picture about the political landscape. Cyprus is a presidential republic with the president having great power and the parliament controlling budget. Currently the parliament composition looks like below:
Democratic Rally (DHSY) – 20 seats: Governing party, Pro-West, right-wing with some members hating everything non-west while others being typical capitalists will not mind any deal as long as there is profit. Also have 2 members in European Parliament under the Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) – same party like Merkel. Controls one of the two biggest worker union (SEK).
Progressive Party of Working People - Left - New Forces (AKEL) – 19 seats: The evolution of the Communist Party of Cyprus, pro-Russian, most of the old guard studied in Soviet Union and speaks Russian to some degree. In identity crisis, members behaving increasingly like pure capitalists. Also have 2 members in European Parliament under the Confederal Group of the European United Left - Nordic Green Left. Controls the other big worker union (PEO).
Democratic Party (DHKO) – 9 seats: Centre-right, pro-West but mostly pro-money. Usually allies with the governing party, whoever that might be.
Movement for Social Democracy (EDEK) – 5 seats: Centre party with a modest left wing. Also have 2 members in European Parliament under the Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament. Although not exactly pro-Russia, it will be difficult to turn the other way.
European Party – 2 seats: Apostates from Democratic Rally, pro-West and heavily right-wing.
Green Party (Ecologists) – 1 seat: No real politics, go wherever the wind is blowing.
Other players include the Church of Cyprus, one of the biggest businesses, heavily pro-Russia and hard-core Capitalist and ELAM, our equivalent to Right Sector.
Current situation and the road to being obedient in EU
As to the base deal, I wish our government realises that the EU is not the alliance we dreamed it to be but a wolf pack which keeps a few spare lambs around for dinner. BBC is already posting news that according to our foreign minister, Cyprus has denied the deal. This is the same foreign minister who was quoted saying "Cyprus belongs and has always belonged to the West". Furthermore, the majority of the Cyprus "elite" was cultivated and nurtured with the mantra "West good - Russia bad" to paraphrase Orwell, despite the cultural and religious links Cypriots and Russians share. A few examples:
- Current president, Nikos Anastasiades was actively supported by Merkel in his bid for presidency two years ago and his party, Democratic Rally, is headed by a neon-liberal hardliner which would make the 1%s proud. During his election campaign, Anastasiades pledged to apply for membership into the Partnership for Peace, the gateway to NATO. Parliament members from his party at some point stated that the Mil-Mi-35s are junk and should be replaced, prompting a serious rebuff by the Russian embassy; the first time I recall an embassy officially protesting for such an event.
- In addition, a former president, Tassos Papadopoulos, was rumoured to have attempted to sell a TOR-M1 battery to the US and that his law office helped Milosevic do some serious money laundering of Serbia's money during the NATO attacks in 1999. According to CIA documents, he was funded in the 1960s in order to create a union of right-wing workers as the one created by the Communist Party of Cyprus was getting too strong. His son is now the head of the centre-right Democratic Party.
Also, when our government does help someone in the East, disasters tend to happen; for example the explosion of "confiscated" Russian ammunition bound for Syria that obliterated our only naval base and the adjoining main power plant. Cyprus does not have warships; the base was built using NATO standards and was intended for use by the Greek navy in the event of an emergency. The explosion was estimated to be almost 1 kiloton in power - a before and after image comparison here. You can see the crater of the explosion (centre-left of the image) and note that the damage to the power station was from the shockwave. Of course sabotage was ruled out immediately although how a fire in a munition depot could rage for some time while only a few meters from the sea was never answered.
To compare, Paphos airbase is located at the edge of Paphos international airport, is the only airbase in Cyprus and was also build using NATO standards. It houses our military helicopters and can support fighter planes; Greek F-16s are regular visitors.
In conclusion, I seriously do hope that this deal will go through but I will not hold my breath.
Kakaouskia is a man in mid-30s, software engineer in meat-space, avid reader of military history and fond of reading strategy analysis.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Fascism in Europe next?
In 2007 I wrote several pieces warning of the arrival of overt Fascism in the USA (see: "Rudy Giuliani - the face of American Fascism", "The only thing which can prevent a Fascist President in 2008" and "When is the use of the "F" word appropriate?"). Now, five years later, I would say that what I observe in the USA is some form of "creeping Fascism" which has succeeded in avoiding the type of overt full-spectrum crackdown on the US general public mainly thanks to the artificial but nonetheless semi-effective way a full-scale economic collapse of the US economy has been avoided. Basically, the laws are in place, the repressive apparatus ready to go in high gear, but the plutocrats in power have managed to avoid using these instruments, at least on a noticeable scale. A great deal of the credit for this goes, I sincerely believe, to the US general public who have shown many signs of push-back against some of the most ridiculous excesses of the TSA, the Border Patrol, the FBI, the Pentagon and other agencies. Still, I believe that all it would take is one "bank holiday" for the curtain to come down and the repression to start. But that is a topic for another day, today I want to turn my attention to Europe and what is taking place there, in particular in regards to Cyprus.
What has happened in Cyprus is almost irrelevant to the EU's economy. As one economist aptly put it, the magnitude of the economic crisis in Cyprus is basically one of a rounding error in the EU's overall economy. As far as Europe is concerned, Cyprus could vanish from the face of the earth overnight, and it would not even notice it. Same deal, by the way, for Russia.
In political terms, however, what happened in Cyprus is, I believe, an event of truly apocalyptic nature: the political suicide of Europe. Why?
Think of it in the simplest of terms:
Some Cypriot banks were told that they had to reimburse their creditors. These banks admitted that they did not have the means to do so. Then, the so-called "Troika" met. What is this "Troika"? A tripartite committee composed of the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Commission (EC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Now please keep in mind two crucial things about this "Troika":
a) Nobody has ever elected the "Troika" itself or even any of its constituent parties (ECB, EC, IMF).
b) Neither the Cypriot people nor the Cypriot banks, are represented at this "Troika".
The Troika basically decided to reimburse the creditors of the Cypriot banks by seizing the money deposited in the Cypriot banks. Now, just to make things clear, please keep in mind that if you are in investor or a shareholder in Bank X your fortune does depend on how well this bank is managed and how it performs. However, if you deposit your money in Bank X this money still remains yours, it might be trusted to the care of the bank, but the bank does not own this money which is strictly and only yours. And yet, the "Troika" ordered the Cypriot banks to simply seize the money which had been deposited in (not invested in) their banks and hand it over to their creditors.
Now, the "Troika" really has zero democratic credentials, this is just a product of the will of the EU bureaucracy. It has no legal right to force the Cypriot banks to do anything. Furthermore, the Cypriot banks have no legal right at all to seize the money which has been deposited in them. To take something which does not belong to you is called *theft*.
Marx wrote the private property generates capitalism, and he was right. But what remains of capitalism if its most important aspect, its ideological cornerstone, is suddenly abolished? Does that not mean the end of capitalism itself?
All the political evolution of Europe since the past three or four hundred years has had as its goal to secure each individual's private property not only from the arbitrary seizure by bandits and thugs, but also by kings and governments. I can think of only one example in the history of western Europe when a government decided to overly seize the property of private individuals by force with no other justification than "because we say so" and that is Kristallnacht in 1938. Yes, the Nazis did dare to openly do what the "Troika" is doing now. And, of course, in the East, the Bolsheviks "nationalized" pretty much all the private property of the Russian people. But at least the Nazis and the Bolsheviks more or less had some kind of argument to be acting on behalf of at least one part of the population of their country. Not so the "Troika" which has no national or electoral mandate or legitimacy.
What does all this really show?
It shows that in Europe the rule of law is a big fat joke. Yes, the big players such as Germany will insist on the respect of the rule of law as long as it is beneficial to them, but as soon as it is not, to hell with it - they will use the same methods as the mob.
That, by the way, should surprise nobody.
The rule of law took a big hit in Europe when the Europeans let the US invade Bosnia under the cover of UNPROFOR and it completely died when NATO attacked Serbia in complete illegality.
Turns that that all these oh-so-respectable European politicians and ideologues are nothing more than your garden variety mobsters, with exactly *zero* respect for the rule of law.
This also means that all the money now deposited in Europe is potentially at risk. Though the EU bureaucrats denied it, it is absolutely clear even to the dullest of idiots that what happened in Cyprus sets precedent, that from now on the very method of seizing money deposited in banks has now the "respectability" of having been used by the ECB, the EC and the IMF. I would even argue that the fact that the IMF was part of this decision makes it an international precedent which now has applicability worldwide.
Furthermore, having acted in complete violating of national and international laws, having arrogantly disregarded banking regulations and laws, and having also condoned the illegal use of force (against Serbia), the EU is now showing its true face: a transnational Fascist cartel run by bankers and plutocrats which does not give a damn about what the European population thinks, or what the law says. The real motto of Europe has now clearly become "might makes right", and that is true in Libya, Syria and Cyprus, but that also means that this is true throughout the EU.
Somewhere I welcome that. "Bas les masques!" (off with the masks) as the French say. At least all of the West - USA and Europe - are done playing cute games about democracy, freedom and human rights. Now, finally, we can see beyond any doubt that the entire western political system is about one thing and one thing only: pure, unfettered, greed. Greed and nothing else.
All this take about lofty ideals of individual rights, private property, freedom, representation, democracy, human rights, etc. was just a load of propaganda aimed at masking the true nature of the beast. Most of us already understood that, but now even the dullest of the doubleplusgoodthinking "democrats" will see that there is nothing real at all in the entire edifice of western political thought besides greed served by violence and lies.
Yet another proof that Fascism was a genuine expression of European civilization. Let's remember here that European Fascism has two very different roots: a southern one - the Papacy (Petain, Franco, Pavelic, Mussolini) and a northern one - the Protestant bourgeoisie (Hitler). Or look at the anti-Fascist resistance in Europe: what are the countries which really gave the Germans a determined resistance? Serbia, of course. Who else? The Netherlands, the Poland and the Greece had major resistance organizations. As for the rest of Europe, it did very little real resistance - they Nazis were certainly not loved, but they were accepted in most countries. After WWII the newly imposed elites tried to turn Hitler and Mussolini into some abject monsters and their ideologies into some satanic creation of a few mad men, but the fact is that Fascism and National-Socialism had deep religious, political and cultural roots in Europe and that both the German Nazis and the Italian Fascists very much saw themselves as people who are reviving the true traditions from the European past.
The situation today is different, of course. We are often told that what is taking place is a struggle between the European "core" represented by Germany against the European "periphery" sometimes referred to as PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain). But I would argue that what is taking place is even far bigger than that - its not only the PIIGS which are a target of the European plutocracy, but also France, which is far bigger and whose "explosive potential" is far more threatening to the international financial system. A top analyst for a hedge fund in NY has recently confirmed to me that if France collapses so would the entire US banking system (courtesy of the crazy system of CDS put in place since the 1990s). There are plenty of signs that the entire French economy has come to a standstill and that it is literally running out of cash (Max Keiser and Pierre Jovanovic have been warning about this for many years).
So I ask myself a basic question: if the Troika has had the nerve to basically act like a gang of mobsters in the case of a tiny economy such as the Cypriot one, what will it do if, say, the economies Portugal, Spain or, God forbid, France collapse? What will the European rulers such as Merkel do if mass unrests begin in these countries? France, in particular, as a long tradition of uprisings and civil unrest which could re-ignite in just a few hours given the right circumstances. The government of Francois Hollande is already the most despised of the French 5th Republic even though the man has been very recently elected.
Finally, the anti-EU movements are still active throughout Europe and the current crisis will only strengthen then. What will the (always submissive and pliant) European governments do if they are told by the top EU bosses to crack down on local separatists/sovereignists? Will they hesitate? I think not.
The bottom line is this: all the European elites, the entire European ruling class, are deeply committed to the Single Europe ideology and they will never, ever, let go of it. The loss of face resulting from a global collapse of the EU project would inevitably result in a loss of power for all those who put their reputation and authority behind this ideology. Nevertheless, the EU is collapsing, and each effort of the European elites to conceal this fact only make the real situation worse. Given a choice between facing the consequences of a popular revolt and the implementation of a Fascist rule there is no doubt in my mind at all that the European elites will chose the latter, with plenty of empty words about "provisional", "exceptional", "temporary" etc.
By now it is becoming undeniable that Europe can have democracy or the EU, but not both. The actions of the "Troika" in the case of Cyprus show, I think, which choice has been made. Fascism might well come to Europe even before it comes to the USA.
The Saker
What has happened in Cyprus is almost irrelevant to the EU's economy. As one economist aptly put it, the magnitude of the economic crisis in Cyprus is basically one of a rounding error in the EU's overall economy. As far as Europe is concerned, Cyprus could vanish from the face of the earth overnight, and it would not even notice it. Same deal, by the way, for Russia.
In political terms, however, what happened in Cyprus is, I believe, an event of truly apocalyptic nature: the political suicide of Europe. Why?
Think of it in the simplest of terms:
Bank robbery in Cyprus |
a) Nobody has ever elected the "Troika" itself or even any of its constituent parties (ECB, EC, IMF).
b) Neither the Cypriot people nor the Cypriot banks, are represented at this "Troika".
The Troika basically decided to reimburse the creditors of the Cypriot banks by seizing the money deposited in the Cypriot banks. Now, just to make things clear, please keep in mind that if you are in investor or a shareholder in Bank X your fortune does depend on how well this bank is managed and how it performs. However, if you deposit your money in Bank X this money still remains yours, it might be trusted to the care of the bank, but the bank does not own this money which is strictly and only yours. And yet, the "Troika" ordered the Cypriot banks to simply seize the money which had been deposited in (not invested in) their banks and hand it over to their creditors.
Now, the "Troika" really has zero democratic credentials, this is just a product of the will of the EU bureaucracy. It has no legal right to force the Cypriot banks to do anything. Furthermore, the Cypriot banks have no legal right at all to seize the money which has been deposited in them. To take something which does not belong to you is called *theft*.
Marx wrote the private property generates capitalism, and he was right. But what remains of capitalism if its most important aspect, its ideological cornerstone, is suddenly abolished? Does that not mean the end of capitalism itself?
![]() |
Hitler as a European knight |
What does all this really show?
It shows that in Europe the rule of law is a big fat joke. Yes, the big players such as Germany will insist on the respect of the rule of law as long as it is beneficial to them, but as soon as it is not, to hell with it - they will use the same methods as the mob.
That, by the way, should surprise nobody.
The rule of law took a big hit in Europe when the Europeans let the US invade Bosnia under the cover of UNPROFOR and it completely died when NATO attacked Serbia in complete illegality.
Turns that that all these oh-so-respectable European politicians and ideologues are nothing more than your garden variety mobsters, with exactly *zero* respect for the rule of law.
This also means that all the money now deposited in Europe is potentially at risk. Though the EU bureaucrats denied it, it is absolutely clear even to the dullest of idiots that what happened in Cyprus sets precedent, that from now on the very method of seizing money deposited in banks has now the "respectability" of having been used by the ECB, the EC and the IMF. I would even argue that the fact that the IMF was part of this decision makes it an international precedent which now has applicability worldwide.
Furthermore, having acted in complete violating of national and international laws, having arrogantly disregarded banking regulations and laws, and having also condoned the illegal use of force (against Serbia), the EU is now showing its true face: a transnational Fascist cartel run by bankers and plutocrats which does not give a damn about what the European population thinks, or what the law says. The real motto of Europe has now clearly become "might makes right", and that is true in Libya, Syria and Cyprus, but that also means that this is true throughout the EU.
Somewhere I welcome that. "Bas les masques!" (off with the masks) as the French say. At least all of the West - USA and Europe - are done playing cute games about democracy, freedom and human rights. Now, finally, we can see beyond any doubt that the entire western political system is about one thing and one thing only: pure, unfettered, greed. Greed and nothing else.
All this take about lofty ideals of individual rights, private property, freedom, representation, democracy, human rights, etc. was just a load of propaganda aimed at masking the true nature of the beast. Most of us already understood that, but now even the dullest of the doubleplusgoodthinking "democrats" will see that there is nothing real at all in the entire edifice of western political thought besides greed served by violence and lies.
Yet another proof that Fascism was a genuine expression of European civilization. Let's remember here that European Fascism has two very different roots: a southern one - the Papacy (Petain, Franco, Pavelic, Mussolini) and a northern one - the Protestant bourgeoisie (Hitler). Or look at the anti-Fascist resistance in Europe: what are the countries which really gave the Germans a determined resistance? Serbia, of course. Who else? The Netherlands, the Poland and the Greece had major resistance organizations. As for the rest of Europe, it did very little real resistance - they Nazis were certainly not loved, but they were accepted in most countries. After WWII the newly imposed elites tried to turn Hitler and Mussolini into some abject monsters and their ideologies into some satanic creation of a few mad men, but the fact is that Fascism and National-Socialism had deep religious, political and cultural roots in Europe and that both the German Nazis and the Italian Fascists very much saw themselves as people who are reviving the true traditions from the European past.
The situation today is different, of course. We are often told that what is taking place is a struggle between the European "core" represented by Germany against the European "periphery" sometimes referred to as PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain). But I would argue that what is taking place is even far bigger than that - its not only the PIIGS which are a target of the European plutocracy, but also France, which is far bigger and whose "explosive potential" is far more threatening to the international financial system. A top analyst for a hedge fund in NY has recently confirmed to me that if France collapses so would the entire US banking system (courtesy of the crazy system of CDS put in place since the 1990s). There are plenty of signs that the entire French economy has come to a standstill and that it is literally running out of cash (Max Keiser and Pierre Jovanovic have been warning about this for many years).
So I ask myself a basic question: if the Troika has had the nerve to basically act like a gang of mobsters in the case of a tiny economy such as the Cypriot one, what will it do if, say, the economies Portugal, Spain or, God forbid, France collapse? What will the European rulers such as Merkel do if mass unrests begin in these countries? France, in particular, as a long tradition of uprisings and civil unrest which could re-ignite in just a few hours given the right circumstances. The government of Francois Hollande is already the most despised of the French 5th Republic even though the man has been very recently elected.
Finally, the anti-EU movements are still active throughout Europe and the current crisis will only strengthen then. What will the (always submissive and pliant) European governments do if they are told by the top EU bosses to crack down on local separatists/sovereignists? Will they hesitate? I think not.
The bottom line is this: all the European elites, the entire European ruling class, are deeply committed to the Single Europe ideology and they will never, ever, let go of it. The loss of face resulting from a global collapse of the EU project would inevitably result in a loss of power for all those who put their reputation and authority behind this ideology. Nevertheless, the EU is collapsing, and each effort of the European elites to conceal this fact only make the real situation worse. Given a choice between facing the consequences of a popular revolt and the implementation of a Fascist rule there is no doubt in my mind at all that the European elites will chose the latter, with plenty of empty words about "provisional", "exceptional", "temporary" etc.
By now it is becoming undeniable that Europe can have democracy or the EU, but not both. The actions of the "Troika" in the case of Cyprus show, I think, which choice has been made. Fascism might well come to Europe even before it comes to the USA.
The Saker
Monday, March 25, 2013
Russia between Cyprus and China
The last couple of days have been truly of immense, historical, importance for Russia, first because of the hugely important visit of Xi Jinping, the President of the People's Republic of China, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, and the Chairman of the Central Military Commission. During this visit the Chinese side stressed that it was highly symbolic that Xi Jinping had chosen Russia as the first country to visit following his election. The Russians responded with their own highly symbolic gesture - they invited Xi Jinping to visit the Operational Control Center of the Russian Armed Forces, something no other head of state had ever done before.
Both sides insisted that what took place was absolutely unprecedented. For example, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin spent a total of seven hours in direct, face to face, consultations. Both heads of state declared that the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership was of the highest possible importance for both countries and that the two nations would closely collaborate on all levels including long term energy and defense issues. A large number of strategic agreements and contracts were signed and both Putin and Xi Jinping announced that Russia and China would also closely work together and support each other in all international questions. Both leaders stressed that the past was forever gone and that the nature of the new relationship between their two countries will have no historical precedent.
While the western corporate press went out of its way to minimize the importance of this meeting, the Russian and the Chinese press stressed the truly tectonic shift such a close partnership represents for the future of the planet. While everything was said in the most diplomatic language, it is rather clear that what we witnessed over the past few days is the birth of a new strategic alliance which is rather clearly aimed against the West both in economic and even military terms. The goal of Russia and China is not to trigger some kind of confrontation with the West as much as it is to globally counter-act Western imperialism. This is why both delegations insisted on the respect of international law in a multi-polar world were no one country or block can dictate its will.
It will be interesting to see what the impact of this strategic alliance will be upon the SCO, the CSTO and the BRICS countries. My personal sense is that Russia and China will use their combined power to strengthen all these institutions. I also see this strategic alliance as yet another manifestation of the new power of the "Eurasian sovereignists" inside the Kremlin who are now clearly pushing Russia towards a deeper integration with the East.
It is ironic that while this new strategic partnership between Russia and China was finalized in Moscow, the West found nothing better to do than to basically commit and act of pure highway banditry towards Russia. I am referring, of course, to what is happening in Cyprus.
To make a long story short I will sum up what is taking place in the following sentence. The EU bankers and their US sponsors have basically decided to rob Russian bank account holders of about 30% of their money in Cyprus in order to repay the banks which gave dirty loans to Cyprus, in other words, to pay themselves. Not only is such an action a direct violation of all possible laws and regulations pertaining to banking, but it is done against a background of vicious anti-Russian propaganda which basically claims that all the Russian money in Cyprus is dirty money from the Russian Mafia. What the EU leaders are basically telling Russia is "yes, fuck you, we will simply take your money and dare you to do something about it".
Interestingly, the Russia media is very much aware of who is really pulling the strings of this entire operation and no Russian politician spoke out against the Cypriots themselves who are, in reality, as much the victims of the international banking cartels as the Russian investors. The line chosen by Russian politicians and the media is the same one: what is happening here has little or nothing to do with Cyprus and everything to do with the entire EU zone becoming dangerous for Russian investors.
The Russian economy will not suffer from any of that. First, because Cyprus is way too small to matter. Second, this situation only strengthens the position of the "Eurasian sovereignists" who have always been warning against placing money in Western banks. Third, this act of banditry by the EU will only further fuel anti-Western sentiments in the already very hostile Russian public opinion and it will hurt all the pro-Western parties and movements in Russia.
The vast majority of the people in Russia see what is happening in Cyprus as yet another manifestation of the Western anti-Russian racism which appears to be the prime motivator of current Western policies towards Russia. For example, Russian journalists were quick to remember that the last time somebody in Europe simply seized the bank accounts of foreigners was Hitler who did so to grab more money to finance his policies. While I find this parallel a little far fetched, it is, I believe, very indicative of the mood in Russia which is deeply disgusted with the West. This is hardly surprising: after the NATO expansion to the East (which it has promised not to do!), the support by the West for all the anti-Russian regimes, including the most aggressive (Georgia) and racist (Latvia), following the deployment of the US anti-missile system, the support for Jewish oligarchs like Berezovsky or Khodorkovsky, the support for Chechen separatists and their atrocities, the adoption of anti-Russian laws like the Magnitsky Act, the support for Pussy Riot and the homosexual parades in Russia, now the big Cypriot robbery. It is hardly a wonder that the Russians are globally disgusted with the West and its seemingly infinite capability for hypocrisy and lies.
Still, the creation of this strategic partnership between China and Russia is excellent news for the world wide resistance against the US-run international global new world order and its turbocapitalist ideology. Both Russia and China clearly and unambiguously stand for the ideas of sovereignty and social solidarity, in other words, what is arguably the most powerful alliance on the planet is clearly anti-capitalist in its ideological basis. Sure, this is not the anti-capitalism of Stalin or Mao, and both Russia and China are more than happy to play the corporate game to their own benefit, but it remains that they are not willing to surrender their sovereignty to the trans-national banking interests and nor are they willing to give up the core value of social solidarity (what most Americans think of as "socialism") in their society.
At a time when Latin America is clearly wobbling and unsure about its future course and when Africa is becoming the next hunting ground for Western predators, it is extremely encouraging to see the emergence of a strategic alliance between the two most powerful countries to resist Western imperialism and the New World Order.
The Saker
Xi Jinping visits the Operational Control Center of the Russian Armed Forces |
While the western corporate press went out of its way to minimize the importance of this meeting, the Russian and the Chinese press stressed the truly tectonic shift such a close partnership represents for the future of the planet. While everything was said in the most diplomatic language, it is rather clear that what we witnessed over the past few days is the birth of a new strategic alliance which is rather clearly aimed against the West both in economic and even military terms. The goal of Russia and China is not to trigger some kind of confrontation with the West as much as it is to globally counter-act Western imperialism. This is why both delegations insisted on the respect of international law in a multi-polar world were no one country or block can dictate its will.
It will be interesting to see what the impact of this strategic alliance will be upon the SCO, the CSTO and the BRICS countries. My personal sense is that Russia and China will use their combined power to strengthen all these institutions. I also see this strategic alliance as yet another manifestation of the new power of the "Eurasian sovereignists" inside the Kremlin who are now clearly pushing Russia towards a deeper integration with the East.
It is ironic that while this new strategic partnership between Russia and China was finalized in Moscow, the West found nothing better to do than to basically commit and act of pure highway banditry towards Russia. I am referring, of course, to what is happening in Cyprus.
To make a long story short I will sum up what is taking place in the following sentence. The EU bankers and their US sponsors have basically decided to rob Russian bank account holders of about 30% of their money in Cyprus in order to repay the banks which gave dirty loans to Cyprus, in other words, to pay themselves. Not only is such an action a direct violation of all possible laws and regulations pertaining to banking, but it is done against a background of vicious anti-Russian propaganda which basically claims that all the Russian money in Cyprus is dirty money from the Russian Mafia. What the EU leaders are basically telling Russia is "yes, fuck you, we will simply take your money and dare you to do something about it".
Interestingly, the Russia media is very much aware of who is really pulling the strings of this entire operation and no Russian politician spoke out against the Cypriots themselves who are, in reality, as much the victims of the international banking cartels as the Russian investors. The line chosen by Russian politicians and the media is the same one: what is happening here has little or nothing to do with Cyprus and everything to do with the entire EU zone becoming dangerous for Russian investors.
The Russian economy will not suffer from any of that. First, because Cyprus is way too small to matter. Second, this situation only strengthens the position of the "Eurasian sovereignists" who have always been warning against placing money in Western banks. Third, this act of banditry by the EU will only further fuel anti-Western sentiments in the already very hostile Russian public opinion and it will hurt all the pro-Western parties and movements in Russia.
The vast majority of the people in Russia see what is happening in Cyprus as yet another manifestation of the Western anti-Russian racism which appears to be the prime motivator of current Western policies towards Russia. For example, Russian journalists were quick to remember that the last time somebody in Europe simply seized the bank accounts of foreigners was Hitler who did so to grab more money to finance his policies. While I find this parallel a little far fetched, it is, I believe, very indicative of the mood in Russia which is deeply disgusted with the West. This is hardly surprising: after the NATO expansion to the East (which it has promised not to do!), the support by the West for all the anti-Russian regimes, including the most aggressive (Georgia) and racist (Latvia), following the deployment of the US anti-missile system, the support for Jewish oligarchs like Berezovsky or Khodorkovsky, the support for Chechen separatists and their atrocities, the adoption of anti-Russian laws like the Magnitsky Act, the support for Pussy Riot and the homosexual parades in Russia, now the big Cypriot robbery. It is hardly a wonder that the Russians are globally disgusted with the West and its seemingly infinite capability for hypocrisy and lies.
Still, the creation of this strategic partnership between China and Russia is excellent news for the world wide resistance against the US-run international global new world order and its turbocapitalist ideology. Both Russia and China clearly and unambiguously stand for the ideas of sovereignty and social solidarity, in other words, what is arguably the most powerful alliance on the planet is clearly anti-capitalist in its ideological basis. Sure, this is not the anti-capitalism of Stalin or Mao, and both Russia and China are more than happy to play the corporate game to their own benefit, but it remains that they are not willing to surrender their sovereignty to the trans-national banking interests and nor are they willing to give up the core value of social solidarity (what most Americans think of as "socialism") in their society.
At a time when Latin America is clearly wobbling and unsure about its future course and when Africa is becoming the next hunting ground for Western predators, it is extremely encouraging to see the emergence of a strategic alliance between the two most powerful countries to resist Western imperialism and the New World Order.
The Saker
Friday, March 22, 2013
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