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Plenty more good news this Friday. First, all the members of the MERCOSUR trading alliance have decided to recall their ambassadors from the European countries involved in the grounding of the Bolivian president’s plane.
I am particularly happy to see that Brazilian President Dilma Rouseff supported the decision and did not cave in to Anglo pressures.
Of course, a similar decision by UNASUR would have been even better, but with US puppet-regimes like the one in Colombia this was not possible.
I would be curious to find out what Ecuador, Nicaragua and Cuba will do, if anything. I would hope that they would also follow the example of MERCOSUR, especially since this is a totally symbolic measure which, on a "diplomatic scale of irritation" is maybe a modest 5 (out of 10), meaning "we are angry, but we will let our anger fizzle out pretty soon". This is somewhere between "summoning an ambassador" (3/10) and expelling an ambassador (8/10). Topping such a scale is "closing down an embassy" (9/10) or, even better, "closing down the US embassy" (10/10). Still, recalling ambassadors as a block is a good show of solidarity and probably the most Rouseff would have agreed to.
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| Mitterrand and Macros |
The real price to pay for countries like France will be far more subtle
and far more painful. For a country which under de Gaulle was clearly
an independent world power France has slouched down to a level of
colonial subservience to the USA which it will probably never recover
from. Long gone are the days when Danielle Mitterrand (wife of
President Francois Mitterrand) flew to Mexico to meet with Subcommander
Marcos or when Regis Debray joined the Che in the jungles.
I can personally attest to the fact that in the 1970s and 1980s France really enjoyed not only the image of a popular country with many cultural ties to Latin American, but even a certain authority, as a country which had a tradition of caring for human rights.
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| Debray with the Che |
This is all over now. If Dubya had found his "poodle" in Blair, then Obama most definitely has found his "bitch" in Hollande, arguably the worst French leader in the entire history of this ancient country. The fact that France blindly obeyed the absolutely idiotic and humiliating US order to deny its airspace to a Latin American head of state, Hollande has turned the French moral authority in Latin America into road kill. And do not judge the severity of what happened by the reaction of the Latin American leaders, they have very little options and they are in a tough struggle already. But for the people of Latin America who have loathed the Yankee oppression of the entire continent and the systematic support for the worst kind of dictatorships, the attitude of the French is nothing short of revolting, disgusting and fundamentally dishonorable.
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| Hollande and Obama |
The only good thing coming from all that is a new sense of clarity, a realization that even France has totally surrendered to the Anglo Empire and that Latin America needs to look elsewhere for allies or friends.
More importantly, this incident also shows that there is no such thing as a "US ally". One is either a US puppet or an enemy of the United States. Washington simply cannot accept that a so-called "ally" would not immediately execute any order given from the White House. Finally, this will only further convince the people of Latin America that the Anglo Empire is racist and that, silly as this may sound to a normal person, a soft-spoken and gentle Indian head of state like Morales simply gets no respect at all from the big and mighty Anglos. All this is, of course, very good news as it further polarizes the political choices for Latin America while making the very notion of being a "US ally" look nauseating.
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| Snowden in Sheremetevo |
The other good news today is that Snowden finally decided to ask for political asylum in Russia. Better late than never, I suppose. That should at least take care of his immediate security problem and allow him to ask, if not for political asylum proper (it is unclear to me that it is possible to ask for asylum in one country when you already have it in another), at least for immigration papers to other Latin American countries, which seems to be his preference even though this is definitely a dangerous choice for a long-term residence. With the exception of Cuba, I would personally consider every single Latin American country as potentially "within reach" of US kidnap or murder teams. Whatever may be the case, he will soon be able to leave the airport and legally travel to the Venezuelan, Ecuadorian or even Cuban embassies or consulates in Moscow.
Still, in terms of life and career, Snowden would be far better off in Russia, where he would be safe from CIA goons, where he could probably easily find a good job in the IT industry, and where he could enjoy all the advantages of living in a huge but safe country. Ain't much of an IT industry in Cuba or Ecuador, and all the countries which offered asylum Snowden are pretty small, at least if compared to the USA. Anyway, that is his choice to make now, but at least he can make it calmly and safely. I wish him well.
The Saker
The LA Times reports:
Seeking to make a political point, a group of Russian lawmakers is initiating a request to seek extradition from the United States of a Russian intelligence officer, Col. Alexander Poteyev, who escaped to America in 2010 after betraying a major network of Russian spies in the U.S.
The lawmakers are comparing the case of Poteyev to that of NSA leaker Edward Snowden, who remains holed up in a Moscow airport, having requested asylum in nearly two dozen nations.
"We initiate this request in connection with the status and the situation around Edward Snowden who is still in Russia," said a lawmaker who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the case. "Thus we would like to test the readiness of the United States for cooperation with Russia on various issues."
Poteyev fled to the U.S. in 2010 after exposing a network of 11 spies, including Anna Chapman, who were detained and then exchanged for two Russians serving prison terms for espionage. Poteyev was found guilty of treason in absentia by a Russian military court.
"This move is certainly designed to only demonstrate to the United States that they have no right to ask for Snowden's extradition," Igor Korotchenko, editor of the National Defense monthly journal said in an interview. "The United States will never ever extradite Poteyev because he was the most precious mole the U.S. ever had recruited among the Russian intelligence."
"The U.S. will not exchange Poteyev for 10 Snowdens, as the baragin is obviously not worth the price," Korotchenko said.
(see here for who Poteev really was - The Saker)
Just on Monday I called the entire European political class "the worst hypocrites on the planet" along with a few other less-than-complimentary things. And this morning I learn this:
‘Imperial Skyjacking’: Bolivian presidential plane grounded in Austria over Snowden stowaway suspicions: not only did the governments of France, Portugal, Spain and Italy illegally close their airspace to President Morales' presidential plane, the Austrians actually had the nerve to search it and then they proudly declared: "Our colleagues from the airport had a look and can give assurances that no one is on board who is not a Bolivian citizen," (Austrian Deputy Chancellor Michael Spindelegger).
As for President Morales, he declared "It's not an offence against the president, it is an offence against the country, against the whole of the Latin American region (...) almost a kidnapping of 13 hours".
I usually try to avoid profanity and vulgar expressions. But sometimes only a crude and rude expression can truly convey the sense of something disgusting beyond words. When I read the latest news this morning my first thought was that Europeans have truly become what Americans call "punk-ass bitches".
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| Typical EU politicians |
The Mayor of London recently managed to express a similar feeling, but without using any profanity. He called his colleagues "Great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies!" (see hilarious video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VsyfXswjIg).
So have your pick - both the US and the UK version perfectly fit an entire continent which has clearly slouched down to a condition of terminal degeneracy.
One more thing. Obama. Words fail me to express my disgust with him. Dubya at least was clearly a drooling idiot, a total ignoramus, a moron who got to "play President" only to the degree that his daddy (Cheney) let him. But Obama is clearly intelligent, charming, well educated, which leaves him with absolutely no excuse at all for being the worst lying President in US history. Remember how he said that he "would not scramble jets" to get Snowden? Well, yeah, I guess he did not. He let his European minions do that for him.
The last Russian Tsar, Nicholas II, made an amazing entry into his diary the day his entire entourage forced him to abdicate. He wrote "all I see around me is cowardice, betrayal and deceit". I have always thought that this was the perfect characterization of the entire 20th century, a diagnosis really. It sure looks to me that the 21st might be even worse.
The Saker
According to Wikileaks and the BBC, Snowden has submitted a request for political asylum to 21 countries:
- Austria
- Bolivia
- Brazil
- China
- Cuba
- Ecuador
- Finland
- France
- Germany
- Iceland
- India
- Italy
- Ireland
- Netherlands
- Nicaragua
- Norway
- Poland
- Russia (withdrawn)
- Spain
- Switzerland
- Venezuela
I reproduce the full list here as I think that this shows something very important: Snowden does not appear to have had a clear plan for his flight or, if he did, something happened which made it collapse. Whatever may be the case, such a long list indicates despair, probably as the result of very poor planning.
For one thing, all the countries which have denied him a visa on the technicality that he is not on their territory or consulate are, technically, correct. Of course, they could decide to forgo such a technicality out of humanitarian concerns, but the fact is that they are right: you cannot request asylum from afar.
Then there is the rather strange statement of Putin. No, I am not referring to Putin's description of the USA as a "partner". As Anonymous0456 correctly put it: "A partner in Russian is someone whom one has to deal with but who is not considered a friend, or an enemy." I would only add that since 1991 and the seemingly infinite list of Western betrayals of their promises to Russia and the equally seemingly infinite list of adopted anti-Russian policies, a lot of Russians are using the words "partner" and even "friends" in a very sarcastic manner. When somebody as deeply anti-Western as Nikolai Starikov speaks of "our geostrategic friends" or our "Anglo Saxon friends" he really means "our mortal foes", of course.
No, what is bizarre in Putin's statement is this condition that Snowden must refrain from anti-US activities. I have worked with asylum seekers and as far as I know, the only legal limit on their political activity is that they are prohibited from participating in the internal politics of the country which grants them asylum. As far as I know, there is absolutely no legal basis to prevent a refugee from expressing his opinions about the country he fled.
Furthermore, Putin looked somewhat irritated by the Snowden topic. First, as I have said already several times here, the Russians have exactly *zero* interests in Snowden or his so-called "revelations". My feeling is that Putin actually spoke the plain simple truth when he said that Snowden's arrival in Moscow was a surprise for the Kremlin. Not in the sense that they did not know about it or could not have prevented it, but in the sense that they had no idea what Snowden was up to. In other words, Snowdens is a pain in the butt for Russia, which right now has bigger fish to fry with the US, and his clear lack of planning probably irritates the Russians who feel that they have no obligations towards him other than the minimalistic "we will not hand him to the US or anybody else", which is more an expression of basic self-respect than of a great deal of compassion.
The fact is that Snowen has triggered yet another wave of anti-Russian hysterics in the USA, something which the Kremlin will hardly be grateful for. What is certain, and Putin also said that, is that Snowden and the Russians never collaborated on anything and that all the actions of Snowden have been unilateral in nature.
Now, on a personal, human, level I feel sorry for Snowden and I wish somebody did the right thing and granted him a safe and comfortable asylum. My personal feeling is that Snowden in sincere and idealistic, and that he tried hard to do the right thing, but he ended up "playing in the wrong court" with the big boys like the USA, China or Russia who have their own rules and priorities and who care very little about well-intentioned and naive young men. As a result, he is now really in a bad situation and one which is further deteriorating very rapidly.
If my suppositions are correct, he might want to take the first offer available to him (Maduro's?) and settle somewhere at least temporarily .
Finally, look at the list of countries above. While some are reasonable options, others (Italy, Poland) are terrible. Does Snowden not even know that Uncle Sam kidnapped people in Italy and tortured them in Poland?!
Clearly, Snowden seems to know next to nothing about the sad reality of European politics.
I feel sorry for him as it appears he will learn the hard realities of life the hard way.
The Saker
Monday July 1, 21:40 UTC
One week ago I left Hong Kong after it became clear that my freedom and safety were under threat for revealing the truth. My continued liberty has been owed to the efforts of friends new and old, family, and others who I have never met and probably never will. I trusted them with my life and they returned that trust with a faith in me for which I will always be thankful.
On Thursday, President Obama declared before the world that he would not permit any diplomatic "wheeling and dealing" over my case. Yet now it is being reported that after promising not to do so, the President ordered his Vice President to pressure the leaders of nations from which I have requested protection to deny my asylum petitions.
This kind of deception from a world leader is not justice, and neither is the extralegal penalty of exile. These are the old, bad tools of political aggression. Their purpose is to frighten, not me, but those who would come after me.
For decades the United States of America has been one of the strongest defenders of the human right to seek asylum. Sadly, this right, laid out and voted for by the U.S. in Article 14 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, is now being rejected by the current government of my country. The Obama administration has now adopted the strategy of using citizenship as a weapon. Although I am convicted of nothing, it has unilaterally revoked my passport, leaving me a stateless person. Without any judicial order, the administration now seeks to stop me exercising a basic right. A right that belongs to everybody. The right to seek asylum.
In the end the Obama administration is not afraid of whistleblowers like me, Bradley Manning or Thomas Drake. We are stateless, imprisoned, or powerless. No, the Obama administration is afraid of you. It is afraid of an informed, angry public demanding the constitutional government it was promised — and it should be.
I am unbowed in my convictions and impressed at the efforts taken by so many.
Edward Joseph Snowden
source: Wikileaks
When I hear the corporate media and even most of the blogosphere say that Edward Snowden was a "CIA agent" or "NSA agent" with access to some super dooper secret information I smile: this is mostly likely not the case at all. Yes, sure, Uncle Sam AND those who dislike the US Empire all have a stake in presenting Snowden as a real hot potato, but in real life he probably can tell the Russians or the Chinese very little which they would not already know. Why?
Ok. First look at his resume according to Wikipedia. Certainly nothing very interesting here: had an early interest in computers, but flunked his first course; then got a GED and then he took a "MS Windows 2000 Systems Engineer w/ Exchange" course at a
for-profit entity known as Advanced Career Technologies from February
2002 to May 2002." W2k + Exchange?! Hardly something very advanced! Then he goes to the US Army, fails a Special Forces training (Tim McVeigh anybody?), then he worked as a security guard for the NSA and later the CIA. He saw himself as such a IT genius that he felt the need to brag about it online. Then he does twelves month of work in network security for the NSA, in the USA and overseas, before joining Booz Allen Hamilton. Does that really strike you are the career path of a computer genius?
Or does anybody seriously believe that the Chinese never suspected that the Anglosphere spied on their telephone network?
Not me.
I guess is that Snowden probably was a competent IT security admin who did a good job learning at his job and who was tasked with mid-level sysadmining at the CIA, NSA and Booz Allen Hamilton. So, of course, he knew about PRISM and all the rest of the US surveillance system. But if for the general public his revelations are sensational (and they are in the political sense), there was nothing new in them for either the Russians or the Chinese. In fact, Putin openly said so at a recent press conference where he said that nothing of what Snowden had "revealed" was new to them.
Furthermore, let me tell you this. In the real world technical collection capabilities like PRISM, ECHELON, Carnivore, etc. are all really part of a much bigger system and the folks who actually operate these machines know *nothing* about "who does what" with the information they collect. Nor are these folks privy to any decision-making mechanisms and nor can they influence them. Intelligence agencies are highly compartmentalized and folks like Snowden or Manning, for that matter, have only access to a big volume of relatively uninteresting information. The real "hot" stuff is handled much higher up in the hierarchy, in very separate branches, in highly compartmentalized teams where "need to know" is the key and where regular security clearances mean nothing. This is why Wikileaks did not contain any really highly classified information.
Now, if Snowden had been a Russian agent, and if he had been deliberately executing intelligence collection requests for them, he could have done a lot. But in that case he never would have defected or gone public. The fact is that Snowden never was a Russian or Chinese "agent" and that he is not a spy at all, but a typical whistleblower. While he never was allowed anywhere near the real world of deep secrecy of intelligence agencies, he did find out enough to be disgusted and he decided to go public. Good for him!
But to say that he - or Manning - leaked any real secrets to the Russians, or anybody else, for that matter, is ridiculous. The damage he - and Manning - did to the USA was purely a political one. This is why neither the Chinese nor the Russians have shown any big interest in him or what he knows.
The Saker
Having just shared some fun speculations with you, I will now tell you what I think Snowden will do: I think that he will pick Iceland. Why?
- Iceland does have a tradition of granting asylum to good people persecuted by Uncle Sam, like Bobby Fischer.
- Iceland has a powerful political movement which supports civil rights and an open society.
- Iceland is not associated in the mind of the typical American with any Evil Empire like Russia.
- Iceland is populated by White, very often English speaking people.
Seriously, that last argument is huge in the mind of most Americans. Just look where they typically go on holidays on their first trip to Europe: London.
Yup, most Americans are amazingly insular in their outlook, they do not know any foreign language, they have little or no interest for the non-Anglo world, and many of them actually fear it (-: hence the official term in the USA for folks like myself: a "legal alien"; makes me feel like I am from Mars or Alpha Centauri :-).
Anyway, is there anything wrong in the choice of Iceland? Oh yes!
First, as I said previously, Iceland has a huge US military presence. Worse, it is precisely because it is populated by White and often English speaking people that it would be relatively easy for any US operator or agent to hide in the crowd. Furthermore, Iceland is really a tiny island with only one "big" city (with a population of only 120'000!) and a scattering of small towns. Needless to say, its cold, grey, humid and desolate. It's very pretty too, in its own way. But for a young man from a huge country like the USA and who lived his latest years in Hawaii, this is going to be a big, big change of scenery, to put it mildly.
Then there is this: all defectors, repeat all, go through not only a culture shock, but usually a period of severe depression. This is well known in security and intelligence services and this is something which is a major problem which often resulted in re-defections, even practically suicidal ones.
I won't go here into this entire business of defector mental issues, but I assure you that I have personally known enough defectors myself, personally, and often very closely, to tell you that if Snowden did not have a major depression it would be something of a miracle. Well, being in a place like Iceland is hardly helpful in this context.
Finally, knowing the above, the US can easily snatch him off the street and make him admit that he is depressed and homesick (which he will be). To make him "voluntarily" re-defect is rather easy, really.
You might ask why the US would be so dead set on the idea of punishing him. It is not. What Uncle Sam wants is to get him back at all costs not at all to punish him, but to send its own intelligence and security establishment the following chilling message: if you run away form us, we will get you back.
This is also a major reason why I would urge Snowden to pick either Russia, or China or Cuba. All these countries have a great deal of experience with defectors (especially Russia), and they are acutely aware of the risks the mental condition of any and every defector presents and they have the psychological support services needed to help (and even that does not always fix the problem).
It would be heartbreaking for everybody to see a press conference with Snowden explaining that he is "voluntarily" returning to the USA. If he decides to pick Iceland, he will make that kind of outcome much more likely.
The Saker
So, as predicted, Snowden was not on the Aeroflot Su150 flight to Havana yesterday. So let' indulge into some totally baseless but entertaining speculations: were could he be?
Until this morning I had this "Jamesbondesque" vision of the FSB whisking Snowden away into a Tu-95MS which would then fly a very long range track over the Atlantic (or even Pacific) to bring Snowden to Ecuador or Havana. While rather uncomfortable (the Tu-95 is a Soviet era bomber with zero attention giving to the crews comfort), such an aircraft could take-off from Moscow and land in Ecuador without a single stop. Of course, so could several times of civilian aircraft, but they would be completely unprotected from interception. This is all irrelevant since Foreign Minister Lavrov said not only that Snowden did not cross the Russian border, but also that Russia had nothing to do with his movements. If the first part of this statement could be considered a cute way of saying that he remained in the international zone of the airport, or even in a non-Russian diplomatic car or embassy, then the second part does seem to exclude a direct Russian participation in flying Snowden around.
As far as I remember - some passengers did recognize him on the flight from Hong Kong to Moscow (correct me if I misunderstood that). So somebody has whisked him away from Moscow, or at least plans to do so, and it ain't the Russian Air Force or government.
So who else? And where could he go?
Again, I personally see only four options: stay in Russia, or go to Ecuador, Venezuela or Cuba. Other options would have included staying in China, but that seems to be "out" or getting to Iceland, but that is really a dangerous choice since, regardless of the hospitality and honor of the people of Iceland, Uncle Sam has a big military base right there, in Keflavik (a base of fantastic military importance had the Cold War turned hot).
My personal choice would have been to say in Russia or China, but if not there, Cuba is the best choice. Unlike Venezuela and Ecuador, Cuba as a world-class security and intelligence establishment which can easily prevent any kidnapping of Snowden by CIA goons. Not only that, but Cuba is so close to the USA that friends and relatives could easily travel to meet Snowden there, while he could watch US TV stations and feel very close to home. The only risk here would be if the Cuban regime was threatened with collapse, which I personally do not at all see happening anytime soon. But if Snowden wanted to hedge against that, he could quietly request a Russian (or Chinese) citizenship and be rapidly evacuated in case of serious problems.
But how can one get from Moscow to Cuba right under Uncle Sam's nose, especially without using Russian military or diplomatic travel methods?
By using Cuban ones, of course!
It just happens that Cubana Air Lines has some brand new Il-96-300 which could pull that off, in particular if it had the possibility to refuel somewhere. Finally, the Cubans have a small, but competent, Air Force which could easily dispatch a few MiG-29s to meet the Il-96-300 on the last leg of its journey and escort it to a Cuban airport.
Well, it just happens that the next flight between Moscow and Cuba on such an Il-96-300 is scheduled for next Saturday, leaving Moscow at 14:05 and landing in Havana at 18:45. It will be a Cubana flight (CU6150) operated by, yes, Aeroflot. Neat, no?
BTW - there is also a CU6150 in the air right now (you can track him here), but it is an Airbus 330-200, which tells me that it is probably an Aeroflot aircraft and that would mean direct Russian involvement.
All of the above is complete and total speculation based on nothing but my inclination to try to imagine scenarios.
Before we find out what actually happened, does anybody else want to play at this guessing game?
Cheers,
The Saker
A couple of small points about Edward Snowden's flight from Hong Kong:
1) US politicians are making all sorts of threats against China, Russia and anybody else who would help Snowden. This is the pinnacle of hypocrisy. Even if the US considers Snowden is a common spy - does anybody remember the long list of spies, including Russian ones, who found refuge in the USA (think Poteev here)?
2) It is most unlikely that Snowden is on the Aeroflot SU 150 flying to Cuba. The flight's captain did not choose an eastern course over the Atlantic and away from US airspace, but a rather western course, well within not only US airspace, but even over US territory. See for yourself. This is the position of SU 150 at 1300 EDT:
3) Both Cuba or Ecuador are, in my opinion, bad locations for Snowden to chose as his new residence as both are heavily infiltrated by US intelligence services. In my opinion he would be far better off in China or Russia both of which could easily remove him from the general public's "radar" forever.
We will see what happens.
The Saker
