Showing posts with label Crimea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crimea. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Russian commander warns US could control whole Gulf of Mexico

How is that for a ridiculous headline?  You like it?

Well, it is just a little variation of a BBC headline today:

Nato commander warns Russia could control whole Black Sea

Here is an except from this article:
Russia's top military commander, Gen Valerii Gerasimov, has warned that US "militarisation" of the annexed Florida Peninsula could be used to exert control over the whole Gulf of Mexico.
Well, the real excerpt was just slightly different:
Nato's top military commander, Gen Philip Breedlove, has warned that Russian "militarisation" of the annexed Crimea Peninsula could be used to exert control over the whole Black Sea
So is there a difference? Of course not. Except one: American exceptionalism, of course.  Come to think of it, there is another difference: the US and NATO just tried to take control of Crimea via the Maidan color revolution whereas Russia did not try to take control of Florida.  That, of course, also begs the following question: if the US and NATO suspect that Russia might use the Crimea Peninsula to control the whole of the Black Sea, then would it be most unreasonable to ask what exactly the US and NATO were hoping to achieve had they succeeded in taking over Crimea?

This is, of course, absolutely ridiculous and yet another example of the mind-blowing hypocrisy western corporate media.  It goes like this: US in Gulf of Mexico - good.  US in Black Sea - also good.  Russia in Black Sea - bad.  Russia in Gulf of Mexico - unthinkable.

And the worst here is not the imperial hubris and arrogance of the USA, it is the willing subservience of the Europeans to Uncle Sam.  They all know it, but they pretend not to notice.

Still, does Gen Breedlove have a point?  Oh yes, he sure does.  Crimea will, indeed, give Russia total control of the Black Sea and even beyond.  Russia will station at the very least one missile cruiser, several ultra-modern diesel attack submarines (ideal for brown and green water operations), supersonic medium range bombers armed with cruise missiles, coastal artillery and cruise missile batteries, fast attack craft, anti-submarine rotary and fixed-wing aircraft, etc.  You can think of Crimea as a unsinkable mega-carrier.  Kind of like Florida.

The Saker

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Why Ukraine Will Never Retake Crimea

Written especially for Russia Insider

The Ukrainian Defense Minister Valerii Geletei is hardly a credible figure.

Not only did he recently declare that Russia had threatened the Ukraine with nuclear strikes, he even told a Ukrainian journalist that Russia had already executed two tactical nuclear strikes on the city of Lugansk (apparently to explain why the Ukrainian forces had to retreat from there). The Junta later denied the story and blamed it on the journalist who first published it.

Despite these antics, Geletei nonetheless caught the world's attention when he promised the Ukrainian Rada that the Ukraine would retake Crimea and organize a victory parade in Sevastopol. The Rada (Ukraine's parliament) greeted that promise with a standing ovation.

The truth is that this will never happen. Here is why:

By 2020 Russia will have completed the following defense plan:

  • 86.7 billion rubles will be spend to modernize the Black Sea Fleet. Modernization plans include the deployment of ultra-modern Project 11356 frigates and top of the line Project 636.3 diesel-electric attack submarines.
  • A separate army group, similar to the one in Kaliningrad, will be formed and a bomber base will be created. The ground forces component will include one Air-Assault brigade, one Spetsnaz brigade, one Naval Infantry brigade and one Motor-Rifle brigade. Earlier, other sources spoke of one or two Airborne brigades, two or three Motor-Rifle brigades and one Tank brigades.
  • The Russian Air Force plans to deploy Tupolev Tu-22M3 “Backfire” bombers in Crimea which will be able to not only defend Crimea from any threat from the sea, but also destroy key components of the the US/NATO anti-ballistic missile system now deployed in southern Europe.
  • Finally, Crimea will be defended by coastal defense missiles, air defense systems and anti-ship cruise missiles.
In other words, Crimea will become a formidable defensive node, an unsinkable aircraft carrier if you want, and an ideal location for the power-projection of Russian military forces in southern Europe, the Balkans, the Mediterranean, the Middle-East, the Caucasus and Central Asia.

No wonder the US/NATO wanted it so badly.

Speaking of the US and NATO – much is made of the presence of USN ships in the Black Sea. In reality, the USN poses no threat to Russia at all, at least not from the Black Sea. The Black Sea is an enclose and small sea, at least by USN standards, where any USN ship, underwater or on the surface, would be a sitting duck for Russian forces, especially missile attacks.

The USN knows that and what these USN vessels do in the Black Sea is called “showing the flag”. This has nothing to do with threatening Russia or Crimea. If the US really wanted to threaten Russia, the very last thing the USN would do is enter the Black Sea. The USN is a deep sea, “blue water” navy, which fights long-distance and not a littoral, “green water” or, even less so, a coastal “brown water” water navy.

Finally, history has shown that Crimea is ideal to defend and very hard to take. By land, Crimea is only accessible by a few open and undefended roads from the north. Centuries of warfare have turned it into a Swiss-cheese like structure filled with tunnels, underground bunkers and fortifications.

Last but not least, Crimea has now already been fully integrated into the Russian military's Southern Military District (based in Rostov-on-the-Don) and, as such, it would have the full support of the rest of the Russian Armed Forces.

The Saker

Sunday, June 29, 2014

Could the Ukraine, backed by NATO, attack Russia?

On at least three occasions I tried to dispel the notion that the US/NATO could attack Russia or Russian forces in the Ukraine (see here, here and here).  I tried to show that geography, over-reach and politics made a conventional attack impossible and I tried to show that a nuclear attack, whether tactical or strategic, could not succeed.  There is a new theory which is apparently going around now which goes something like this: the Ukraine will re-arm and re-organize with the technical and financial help of the AngloZionist Empire, and then it will attack Crimea, possibly with the support of NATO airpower.  Sounds scary, but the good news is that it is just as implausible as the other theories.  Today, I want to explain why.

First and foremost, from a military point of view there can be no such thing as an "attack in Crimea" separate form a full-scale attack on Russia itself.  Crimea is not a distant island in the middle of nowhere (like the Malvinas) and it will soon be fully integrated into the Russian defense system.  Second, being a peninsula, Crimea is extremely hard to attack as the British and the Germans have found out.  So no matter how you try to package it, from a purely military point of view, to have any chance of success an attack on Crimea would have to include a full scale attack on Russia. 

And let me immediately put to rest the argument about NATO airpower: not only did it miserably fail in Bosnia, it did not even have what it takes to attack Syria, nevermind Iran.  The USAF is flying either very good old aircraft or very bad modern aircraft whose attrition rate trying to deal with both the Russian Air Force and the Russian Air Defense Network, especially around Crimea, would be huge.  Bombing an almost defenseless Serbia for 78 days (for pathetic results!) is one thing, trying to bomb Crimea and Russia proper is harder by several orders of magnitude.  As for US/NATO ground forces, they would have a hard time even getting anywhere near Crimea.  Which leaves the US Navy.

Unlike the US Army and Air Force, the USN is in much better shape and far more powerful than the Russian Navy.  But to meaningfully participate in an attack on Crimea it would have to act from the eastern Mediterranean as entering the Black Sea would be not only suicidal, but even impossible for US Aircraft Carriers (not to mention completely contrary to US Naval doctrine).  In reality, the USN could inflict far more devastating attacks on Russia in the Pacific, the Kola Peninsula or even the Baltic Sea than in southern Russia.

Which leave a hypothetical "future Ukrainian military" (the current one is unable to take Slaviansk or Kramatorsk, and could not even hold on to Krasnyi Liman).  We can hypothesize all we want about how motivated this future Ukrainian military would be, but I personally cannot imagine what would motivate a future Ukrainian soldier to go and fight Russia, even for Crimea.  But even if we assume a tremendous motivation, the fact is that the most the Ukraine can hope for in the next 1-10 years is to put a lot of men under arms and use outdated military hardware augmented with modern electronics, communication gear, targeting systems, command and control networks, etc.   But even this relatively modernized Ukrainian military would face the very same problem which defeated the Swedes, the Crusaders, Napoleon and Hitler: no, not the "General Winter" canard, but Russia's strategic depth.  Let me give just one example.

One of the most formidable weapons in the Russian military arsenal is the new Su-34 figher-bomber whose combat radius is estimated at over 1'000km but who already flew 6'000km with 2 mid-air refuellings.  In a combat mission, such Su-34s could be protected by advanced Su-35S' who have a very similar combat range.  In practical terms, this means that the Russian Air Force could strike Ukrainian units practically from anywhere west of the Urals.  And did I mention that Russia has 28 AWACs while the Ukraine has none?  This is just one small example, but it illustrates the different kind of importance strategic depth can in modern warfare.

I could go on for hours giving further examples, but I think that the point is clear: the Ukrainian military, even with the benefit of western financial and technical aid, and even with motivated soldiers, simply has no chance at all to re-take Crimea, nevermind prevail in a conflict against Russia.

So the only real risk is that the AngloZionists would order their Gauleiter in Kiev (whether Poroshenko or any other) to provoke a conflict with Russia not with the aim to prevail, but with the aim to create a crisis and force Russia to use her military power.  Alas, the Ukraine will always have enough military power to attack Crimea and get many people killed.  The attack will fail, but a crisis will be triggered.

Whatever may be the case, the Russian military has already announced a major effort to strengthen the defenses of the Crimean Peninsula and the Black Sea (including new bombers, submarines, air defense systems, naval infantry, etc.).  In fact, all the signs are that Russia will make the Crimean Peninsula the key node of her entire southwestern defense posture.

I sincerely believe that while such theories make for good headlines, an attack by anybody on Russia is extremely unlikely and that it is unhelpful to spend too much time on such far-fetched possibilities.   Senseless terrorist attacks and the subversion of the Crimean Tatars minority are far more likely threats than a conventional military attack.

The Saker

Saturday, April 12, 2014

Excellent footage of the "Polite Armed Men in Green" during their operation in Crimea

What had to happen did happen.  One, or more, of the "Polite Armed Men in Green" (PAMG) did use his cellphone or GoPro to shoot footage of his unit's operations in Crimea.  According to the intro, this unit is called "detachment 0900" which could be nonsense or true, it does not matter.  What is sure is that this denomination does not conform to the Russian official/public military unit classification which normally has four or five digits (as in m/u xxxxx).  I have personally never heard of a detachment 0900 nor have I found anything about it on the Russian Internet.  This proves nothing, of course, and chances are that this number was an operational once, used just for this one time.

Everything I see in this video personally points me to the Spetsnaz GRU (the "original" or "genuine" military Spetsnaz forces), primarily because I see reasons to exclude other candidates (Airborne, AirAssault, Naval Infantry, FSB, ODON, etc.).

In purely technical terms, I have to say that this operation is another masterpiece maybe not as flashy as the storming of the Tajbeg Palace in Afghanistan during "Operation Storm-333", but in a way at least as remarkable.  There were at least 30'000 fully armed Ukrainian troops in Crimea (a lot them from the western Ukraine) and an overall population of over 2'000'000 people, and yet not a single person was killed (a few shots were fired during the operation).  I don't think that there is anything like it in modern history (Turkish occupation of Cyprus, Grenada, Panama, French operations in Rwanda or Mali, etc.)  From the footage you can also see two things:  a) even the local "civilians" were armed to the teeth and b) there were Right Sector activists in Crimea.  At the end of the video you see them being taken prisoner by the PAMG who then take a shoot at their computer with a screensaver which shows a Ukrainian flag and the caption "The Crimea will be Ukrainian or desolated/uninhabited".  Charming young men for sure...

Anyway, thanks to "anonymous" for calling my attention to this unique footage taken by the Spetsnaz themselves.  Clearly they are happy to share a glimpse of their usually top secret work with the world.  I even suspect that this "leak" was allowed, off the record of course, by the equally happy higher-ups.

Here is that footage, enjoy!

The Saker


Friday, March 28, 2014

UN General Assembly declares Crimean vote invalid

Here is how they voted:


Monday, March 24, 2014

Celebration event in Moscow: Crimea - we are with you!

An amazing celebration took place yesterday in Moscow: Russia was celebration the reunification of Crimea to the Russia.  Here is short but moving video from this event subtitled by a wonderful (Muslim) friend of mine to whom I am immensely grateful.

Enjoy!

The Saker 

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Today every free person in the world has won!

We feel that we won; Lebanon won; Palestine won; the Arab nation won, and every oppressed, aggrieved person in this world also won. Our victory is not the victory of a party. I repeat what I said in Bint Jbeil on 25 May 2000: It is not the victory of a party or a community; rather it is a victory for true Lebanon, the true Lebanese people, and every free person in the world. Don’t distort this big historic victory. Do not contain it in party, sectarian, communal, or regional clans. This victory is too big to be comprehended by us. The next weeks, months, and years will confirm this.

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, “Divine Victory Speech”, 2006


Following the past few, truly incredible, days which saw momentous developments taking place at an amazingly rapid pace, I think that it is time to take a moment to calmly and carefully reflect about what I consider to be a historical event of an immense magnitude. Formally, this event will be recorded as the “The address of Russian President Vladimir Putin to the State Duma deputies, Federation Council members, heads of Russian regions and civil society representatives in the Kremlin”. In reality, of course, this was much more. This was the address of the New Russia to the entire world and, especially, to the many people worldwide who reject the social, economic and political model embodied in the current AngloZionist Empire otherwise known as “The West”, including those inside the so-called “West”.

The great disconnect between the 1% and 99%

In the hours following Putin's speech I was amazed to see the total disconnect between what I just had heard, the reaction of the people in Russia, and the way the official corporate media covered the event. In Russia senior political figures compared what had just taken place with the victory against Nazi Germany in 1945, they repeated over and over again that what had just taken place would create a new world order and that the nature of the system of international relations had been changed forever.  And yet, the western corporate media spoke about the pomp of the ceremony and how Putin had justified the Russian annexation of Crimea. Had they listened to a different speech?!

But then came the reactions of the readers of my blog who in increasing numbers were reporting that they had listening to Putin's speech with tears in their eyes. Many even praised Putin in terms that would make even a Kremlin PR officer blush with embarrassment. What was going on here? Clearly my readers were not only apprising the contents of Putin's speech and expressing their overall agreement with his views, no, they were having a deeply emotional reaction to something which they had felt deep inside their gut and in their souls, something which powerfully resonated deeply inside them. Why? Very few of these readers had any connections to Russia, even less had any Russian roots. Some had even served in the US military against the Soviet-backed Vietnamese. The vast majority were old enough to vividly remember the Cold War and how it felt to live under the bulleye of the Soviet nuclear forces. And yet these people clearly totally rejected the official view of the corporate media and adopted a radically different view. Why?

I have to mention here that every since my blog acquired a better visibility (roughly over the past 6 months) I have been getting a lot of emails from literally all over the world and that many of these emails were extremely emotional, clearly written “with gut and soul” and they often gave me the feeling that my correspondent was baring his/her soul showing an immense amount of pain, frustration and even rage, and an even bigger gratitude and appreciation for what I was trying to achieve with this blog. And, again, this made me wonder – what was it that I was doing that was eliciting such an outpouring of gratitude and emotions?! After all, I had never intended my blog as a crowd-pleaser, but only as the “thinly anonymous” blog of just one guy speaking his mind and trying to foster a free exchange of views. And yet, some readers have even claimed that reading this blog had “changed their lives”. Why?! How?! I was honestly baffled by such reactions.

And then I understood

People were hungry, they were literally starved for truth, and even when they did not agree with what I wrote, which happened quite often, they were grateful for the fact that I clearly had no agenda and that I simply spoke the truth as I saw it. It became clear to me that a lot of people fully understood that they were lied to, they just did not always have the means to get to the real story or just enough facts to connect the dots for themselves. In the case of my blog, the fact that I was fluent in five languages meant that I could help them cross the language barrier and my past as a military analyst who had seen the “behind the scenes” true face of the AngloZionist empire made it rather easy for me to debunk many, even if not all, of the lies of the corporate media. Finally, the fact that I had no political agenda or affiliation of any kind, even if I held strong – and often goofy – views about many subjects, meant that I was not trying to “sell my stuff” - it was here to take it or leave it – and that it made no difference to me what people thought of my views.  One of the many positive side-effects of “thin anonymity” (which I define as anonymous enough to have readers focus on ideas and not personalities, anonymous enough not to be bothered by idiots, but clearly not anonymous enough to hide from any person making even a very modest effort to try to identify me) is that I am clearly not even trying to sell myself.  No, what was going on here is something far more basic and I will use an image to make my point: it's not that the food I was cooking was so amazingly tasty, it's that my guests were truly starved and, as the Irish say, “hunger is the best sauce”.

I very much believe that this “hunger” is also what explains the very strong and emotional reaction that so many people have had after listening to Putin. Clearly, this was much bigger than Crimea, the Ukraine or even Russia. These were just triggers which ended up eliciting a Russian reaction which nobody had seriously believed possible.  But many felt that something much more important had just happened.

What am I referring to here? Let's turn to Putin's speech and parse some of its most important segments (the full speech is available here and here and I urge everybody who has not done so yet to read it in its entirety or, better, watch the video here).

Putin's message to the world

Predictably, Putin's speech began by discussing the recent events in Crimea including the results of the referendum. He spoke about what Crimea and Sevastopol meant for the Russian history, culture and nation, and he recalled the horrors suffered by the Tatar people during the Soviet era. He then outlined the circumstances in which Nikita Khrushchev single-handedly (and illegally) transferred Crimea from the Russian Federation to the Ukraine and how, after the fall of the Soviet Union the Ukraine suffered under the rule of corrupt leaders. And then he explained how the legitimate protests of the Ukrainian people were literally hijacked by very different and violent people:

I understand those who came out on Maidan with peaceful slogans against corruption, inefficient state management and poverty. The right to peaceful protest, democratic procedures and elections exist for the sole purpose of replacing the authorities that do not satisfy the people. However, those who stood behind the latest events in Ukraine had a different agenda: they were preparing yet another government takeover; they wanted to seize power and would stop short of nothing. They resorted to terror, murder and riots. Nationalists, neo-Nazis, Russophobes and anti-Semites executed this coup. They continue to set the tone in Ukraine to this day (...) we can all clearly see the intentions of these ideological heirs of Bandera, Hitler’s accomplice during World War II.
This reference to WWII is not just a politician's rhetorical exaggeration aimed at eliciting a knee-jerk reaction from the audience, it is something much more important – an unambiguous statement that today, just as during WWII, the very existence of Russia as a country, a culture and a nation was at stake. Of course, the threat to Russia does not come from a few baseball bat wielding nationalist thugs in Kiev or from the new regime in power, if only because this new regime is a complete fiction anyway:
It is also obvious that there is no legitimate executive authority in Ukraine now, nobody to talk to. Many government agencies have been taken over by the impostors, but they do not have any control in the country, while they themselves – and I would like to stress this – are often controlled by radicals. In some cases, you need a special permit from the militants on Maidan to meet with certain ministers of the current government. This is not a joke – this is reality. Those who opposed the coup were immediately threatened with repression
So where does the real danger come from and who is the real aggressor threatening Russia at least as much has Hitler did in WWII? Before answering that question, I would like to note that Putin made a rather candid admission about the so-called “polite armed men in green”. He said:(emphasis added)
The President of the Russian Federation received permission from the Upper House of Parliament to use the Armed Forces in Ukraine. However, strictly speaking, nobody has acted on this permission yet. Russia’s Armed Forces never entered Crimea; they were there already in line with an international agreement. True, we did enhance our forces there; however – this is something I would like everyone to hear and know – we did not exceed the personnel limit of our Armed Forces in Crimea, which is set at 25,000, because there was no need to do so. 
So the mystery of the “polite armed men in green” is now solved: “strictly speaking” they were an “enhancement” to the Russian forces in Crimea which did not exceed the maximal total number of troops allowed by the treaty with the Ukraine. In other words, the number of Spetsnaz GRU troops sent to Crimea was within the terms of the treaty and the other forces seen were, indeed, local self-defense units and not part of the Russian military. Elegant formulation, for sure.

Putin then quoted the position of the UN International Court and the United States on the issue of the secession of Kosovo: “General international law contains no prohibition on declarations of independence” (UNIC) and “ Declarations of independence may, and often do, violate domestic legislation. However, this does not make them violations of international law” (USA) and added:

For some reason, things that Kosovo Albanians (and we have full respect for them) were permitted to do, Russians, Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars in Crimea are not allowed. Again, one wonders why.
Here we are getting at the core of his argument: the Empire has no other use for International Law then to use it as a fig leaf for its project of world hegemony and when that is not possible, then the Empire simply ignores it and uses brute force:
This is not even double standards; this is amazing, primitive, blunt cynicism. One should not try so crudely to make everything suit their interests, calling the same thing white today and black tomorrow (…) After the dissolution of bipolarity on the planet, we no longer have stability. Key international institutions are not getting any stronger; on the contrary, in many cases, they are sadly degrading. Our western partners, led by the United States of America, prefer not to be guided by international law in their practical policies, but by the rule of the gun. They have come to believe in their exclusivity and exceptionalism, that they can decide the destinies of the world, that only they can ever be right. They act as they please: here and there, they use force against sovereign states, building coalitions based on the principle “If you are not with us, you are against us.” To make this aggression look legitimate, they force the necessary resolutions from international organisations, and if for some reason this does not work, they simply ignore the UN Security Council and the UN overall. (…) We understand what is happening; we understand that these actions were aimed against Ukraine and Russia and against Eurasian integration (…) we have every reason to assume that the infamous policy of containment, led in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries, continues today. They are constantly trying to sweep us into a corner because we have an independent position, because we maintain it and because we call things like they are and do not engage in hypocrisy. But there is a limit to everything. And with Ukraine, our western partners have crossed the line, playing the bear and acting irresponsibly and unprofessionally.
Amazing words coming from the President of a nuclear-armed superpower: not only does he denounce the complete and total hypocrisy of the AngloZionist Empire, he even places it in the direct continuation of three centuries of anti-Russian policies by Western European powers! Not only does he denounce the Empire's double-standards, he even openly ridicules the incompetence of its leaders:
After all, they were fully aware that there are millions of Russians living in Ukraine and in Crimea. They must have really lacked political instinct and common sense not to foresee all the consequences of their actions. Russia found itself in a position it could not retreat from. If you compress the spring all the way to its limit, it will snap back hard. You must always remember this.
Indeed, one can only wonder what in the world they were thinking in the “imperial high command” when they decided to use Nazis in the Ukraine just like they used al-Qaeda in Afghanistan: did they really think that Russia would yield yet again? Did it even have such an option? Not according to Putin:
It is at historic turning points such as these that a nation demonstrates its maturity and strength of spirit. The Russian people showed this maturity and strength through their united support for their compatriots. Russia’s foreign policy position on this matter drew its firmness from the will of millions of our people, our national unity and the support of our country’s main political and public forces. (…) Obviously, we will encounter external opposition, but this is a decision that we need to make for ourselves. Are we ready to consistently defend our national interests, or will we forever give in, retreat to who knows where? (…) Russia will also have to make a difficult decision now, taking into account the various domestic and external considerations. What do people here in Russia think? Here, like in any democratic country, people have different points of view, but I want to make the point that the absolute majority of our people clearly do support what is happening.
Let's sum up. Putin has now openly stated that:

1) There is no limit to the hypocrisy, lies, evil, stupidity and aggressive nature of the AngloZionist Empire.
2) That this Empire represents by its very nature an existential threat to Russia.
3) That the Russian people are united in their determination to resist this Empire.

Frankly, to me this sounds very much like a declaration of war. Not necessarily a hot war with military forces fighting each other, but something more than a Cold War in which the status quo is an acceptable option. Putin is suggesting that the next war will be a civilizational one, a cultural one and even a moral one, a war in which one side will stand for absolute rule of a cynical world hegemon and the other side for a multi-polar world in which all countries are to be subjected to the same set of rules and principles. But even more importantly than a single set of rules, the kind of international system Russia is seeking to establish is one in which each nation, culture and religion would have the actual, not just theoretical, freedom to live as it want. He clearly said so in his 2013 annual Presidential address to the Federal Assembly when he said:

Today, many nations are revising their moral values and ethical norms, eroding ethnic traditions and differences between peoples and cultures. Society is now required not only to recognise everyone’s right to the freedom of consciousness, political views and privacy, but also to accept without question the equality of good and evil, strange as it seems, concepts that are opposite in meaning. This destruction of traditional values from above not only leads to negative consequences for society, but is also essentially anti-democratic, since it is carried out on the basis of abstract, speculative ideas, contrary to the will of the majority, which does not accept the changes occurring or the proposed revision of values. We know that there are more and more people in the world who support our position on defending traditional values that have made up the spiritual and moral foundation of civilisation in every nation for thousands of years: the values of traditional families, real human life, including religious life, not just material existence but also spirituality, the values of humanism and global diversity. Of course, this is a conservative position. But speaking in the words of Nikolai Berdyaev, the point of conservatism is not that it prevents movement forward and upward, but that it prevents movement backward and downward, into chaotic darkness and a return to a primitive state.
It is pretty clear that this last sentence expresses Russia's view on the level of civilizational and cultural degradation the AngloZionist Empire has imposed upon the people of Europe and the USA. Furthermore, when Putin says that “destruction of traditional values from above not only leads to negative consequences for society, but is also essentially anti-democratic, since it is carried out on the basis of abstract, speculative ideas, contrary to the will of the majority” he is clearly stating that the AngoZionist Empire is not ruled by the people which live in it, but by minorities, special interest groups, behind the scenes lobbies and cabals who impose their warped agenda upon the rest of the people. 

Again, the bottom line is this: the President of Russia has made an open declaration of war against the 1% elite which currently is in control the AngloZionist Empire. This war will be a multi-level one combining “soft power” (cultural resistance, religious resistance, informational resistance, financial and economic warfare) with “hard power” (a military ready fight the US/NATO if needed, the use of the “energy weapon” to retaliate against economic warfare). In an ironical twist of history, especially for a capitalist society which has ridiculed Marx and repudiated the concept of class warfare, this war will also profoundly be a class war in which oligarchs from different countries will support each other and in which the regular, 99%, people will work together on, for example, the “virtual battlefields” of the Internet.

The crucial battlefield: “global information operations”

Information operations” is the term used by the US military to refer to “direct and indirect support operations for the United States Military”. Psychological operations, or PSYOPs, are seen as a subset of IO. For our purposes, however, is to extend this concept to not only military operations, but to the full spectrum of national security policies of a country and, in our case, for the “deep state” which holds the reins of power in the AngloZionist Empire. I will thus speak of Global Information Operations or GIOs the core component of which is represented the western corporate media.

For a while in my life I, like many other military analysts, made my living by, among other things, reading the Soviet press every day. Not just the Pravda or Izvestia, but also even more boring or specialized newspapers, magazines and reviews. I listen to the Soviet radio as often as I could, and I never missed a chance to watch the Soviet TV, especially the news shows. At the time I was young, very naïve and very dumb, and I sincerely believed that the Soviet Union was a mortal threat to western Europe and that the only thing which stood between them, the evil commies, and us, the free world, was the military power of the NATO alliance. Looking back at myself and the utter garbage I had in my brain then, I feel embarrassed and, frankly, ashamed of my total credulity. But at the time I was a dedicated soldier of the Cold War whose motto was “know thy enemy”. And I knew my "enemy" really, really, well. I want to explain all of the above before stating the following:

In all honesty and sincerity, I have to say here that in comparison to the modern western corporate media the Soviet press was far more pluralistic, more diverse and more trustworthy. True, the Soviet press simply did not mention certain topics, but that goes to show that, unlike the western corporate media, it did not feel that it could brazenly lie to the point where even what is obvious is categorically and totally denied. For one thing, the Soviet public was far better educated. We all, including myself, used to poke fun at the obligatory lessons in Marxism-Leninism in Soviet schools, but we overlooked that any halfway decent course in Marxism-Leninism will include topics like dialectics, historical materialism and economics: stuff that makes you think.  This is not to say that the Soviet people could not be lied to – they could and they have been – but only that the lies had to be at least halfway credible and present a plausible scenario. In contrast, for a public raised on CNN, BBC or MTV the lies need not be even capable of passing a basic common sense test (as is so vividly illustrated by the western corporate media's coverage of the 08.08.08 war or the events in the Ukraine): the Doublethink predicted by Orwell in his book 1984 is now fully upon us and black can be called white and vice-versa with no problems at all. I would even argue that, in comparison, even the Nazi Völkischer Beobachter contained more information than, say, the NYT, WSJ or the BBC whose level of brazen lying I could only compare to, maybe, the Der Stürmer.

I first noticed this absolutely unprecedented level of outright lying by the western corporate media during the US/NATO war on Yugoslavia (Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo), but I think that it has only gotten worse since. In contrast, the modern Russian press is extremely diverse and the people in Russia are regularly shown the type of coverage the current events in the Ukraine get in the western press and it leave them baffled. They simply cannot understand how this is possible in a society which externally seems to have all the characteristics of a free and pluralistic society. In the bad old days of the USSR, it was all simple: there was state censorship. But there is no state censorship in the West, no Glavlit and no Goskomizdat, and yet the western press is far more monolithic and dishonest then even the official party press in the USSR. But there is one crucial difference between the USSR and today's AngloZionist Empire: the Internet.

Simply put, the Internet is the only global media not controlled by either governments or corporations (which is really the same thing). Yes, there are numerous attempts by both governments and corporations to change this, but at least for the time being, information is circulating freely throughout the Internet. This introduced amazing changes:

1) a single citizen with a minimal income now had the means to meaningfully oppose the lies of even major corporations or governments: the case of Alain Soral in France is typical of this amazing trend.
2) the resistance to the Empire is now geographically decentralized: as this blog illustrates so well with the amazing diversity of its readers.
3) information simply cannot be suppressed: the world learned of the massacres and atrocities of the Wahabi insurgents in Syria even though the corporate media tried hard to ignore them.
4) low-level classified government documents do regularly get compromised by various individuals who can then leak it without anybody being able to stop it (Assange, Snowden, Manning).
5) an increasing number of people sever their exposure to the corporate media which now mostly subsists on government grants.
6) even those who still watch TV or read the press are aware that they are being lied to.

All this means that we live in a new reality in which the global AngloZionist Empire is now actively opposed by a global resistance which knows no borders, no nationalities and no religions: people from different countries, nations and religions stand together against a common hegemon not just in theory like in “Proletarians of all countries – unite!” slogan, but in actuality and they actively collaborate with each other.

It is to this global resistance to the Empire and its GIOs that Putin addressed his words yesterday. Sure, of course, he was primarily speaking to the people of Russia, Crimea and the Ukraine, but he was also reaching beyond, to all those, probably many millions, who would make the effort to listen to him on YouTube or read a transcript of his speech. Because, of course, all this is much bigger than just a power struggle over a relatively small peninsula in the Black Sea: yesterday, for the first time, a powerful and determined leader openly told the Empire: we know you, we understand what you are trying to do, and we are not going to let you do it. In fact, we reject everything you stand for and we will never let you rule the planet. And today, we have the means to stop you!

Dust storms reported world wide

I think that we are entering a new era which many of us had been hoping for for a very long time. An era when a resistance which used to be only local has finally found a leader capable not of commanding it, no, but capable of representing and inspiring it. I honestly don't think that Putin wanted that. He would have much preferred to be in the shoes of Chinese President Xi Jinping who fully supports Putin, but who prefers to avoid an open confrontation with the Empire, at least until such time when China becomes truly powerful. Iran and Hezbollah have been openly resisting for many years, but they simply did not have the means to reach much further beyond the Middle-East. As for the resistance in Latin America (Venezuela, Ecuador, Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia) it has not been able to effectively deal with more lukewarm or hesitating leaders (Brazil, Chile, Argentina) or with outright US puppet states (Colombia). If anything, the recent vote at the UNSC in which only China abstained and every other member voted against Russia goes to show that on the global scale Russia is alone and that no world leader has the courage to openly stand next to Putin.

Even though I had been following Putin's career very carefully since 1999, it took me until 2008 to fully get a sense of what this man was all about. Still, I know that a lot of people remained skeptical: was he really what he appeared to be or was he simply playing a sophisticated game of “good cop – bad cop” with Medvedev, with each of them catering to their own audience? When Russia was invited to the G8 and when it acceded to the WTO a lot of careful observers wondered whether Putin was really as "anti-Empire" as he claimed to be, or whether he was just conducting a hard bargain for better conditions inside the Empire's international system. I hope that they today these skeptics see that Putin is “for real” and that he is now the de-facto leader of the global resistance against the AngoZionist Empire.

As I have mentioned above, a lot of readers of this blog, with no personal connections to Russia at all, reported yesterday that they had listened to Putin's address with tears in their eyes. This resulted in a rather moving discussion of red-eye triggering “dust storms” reported from various parts of the world (Germany, USA, Uruguay, Austria, Canada and, of course, Russia). One anonymous poster though did not want to use a cute euphemism and simply wrote : “Here it wasn't a dust, it was just a sincere pure cry for the hope of the all humanity around the world, that we can live in peace, mutual respect , abundance and prosperity for everyone around this beautiful earth. I do believe that this is the start of the new era.” In other words: Putin – we heard you!

Conclusion – a victory which belongs to every free person

First, let me be clear about this: what happened in Crimea is definitely a victory, but only one in a much wider war which is far from over. The first rule of warfare is to never underestimate your enemy and to never do what the French call “sell the bear's skin before having killed it”. This is far from over and if this is indeed the “beginning of the end” for the Empire, this is still only the very beginning of a long and most dangerous process. Some Empires die more or less peacefully, destroyed by economic ruin and over-reach, but others need to be defeated in an orgy of violence. Though on my bad days I sometimes daydream about seeing a private of the Russian army plant a Russian flag on the Capitol as Meliton Kantaria did over the Reichstag, I don't think that this would be much of a cause for joy in the midst of a nuclear winter. So the task is to bring down the Empire without bringing down the rest of the planet with it.

Those parts of the planet which have been “liberated” (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, China, Iran, etc.) need to resist, if needed by force, and remain free. Those parts which are still fought over (Syria, Lebanon, Venezuela, etc.) need to continue their struggle, as for the rest of the world it needs to continue its non-violent, ideological and informational resistance against the Empire and it's lies. We can use the well-known image of a swarm of bees attacking a large animal – individually the bees can do little, but in a coordinated attack they can defeat and even kill the much larger animal.

In the meantime, yes, we can rejoice over our common victory this week and paraphrase the words of Hassan Nasrallah in his absolutely beautiful “Divine Victory” speech and say: “We feel that we won; Russia won; Crimea won; the Slavic nations won, and every oppressed, aggrieved person in this world also won. It is not the victory of a party or a community; rather it is a victory for true Russia, the true European people, and every free person in the world. Don’t distort this big historic victory. Do not contain it in party, sectarian, communal, or regional clans. This victory is too big to be comprehended by us”.

There is a song about war as a metaphor for any resistance to evil and brutality which is very popular in Russia called “A toast to” which has the following words: (see home-made music video here)

Let's toast to life, come on brother, until the end
Let's toast to those who were with us then

Let's toast to life, and may all wars be accursed!
We'll remember those
Who were with us then.

A toast to them, a toast to us
And to Siberia and the Caucasus
To light of distant cities
And to friendship and to love
A toast to you, a toast for us,
To the Airborne Troops and the Spetsnaz
To combat decorations
Let's lift a toast, my old friend!


In the same spirit, I toast to you, all my readers and friends in the resistance, and I wish you courage and steadfastness in the long struggle ahead.  But today, let us celebrate indeed!

The Saker

CrossTalk: Welcome Crimea!

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

2 killed in shooting near Crimea military research center, 'sniper detained'

RT reports:

Two people – a self-defense member and a Ukrainian soldier – were killed and two others wounded after snipers opened fire from a partially inhabited building near a military research center in Simferopol. One sniper was detained, another is on the run.
As RT producer Lida Vasilevskaya arrived at the scene, the perimeter of the Ukrainian military topography and navigation center was already surrounded by men in camouflage and the situation was "calm."
The local Interior Ministry said in a press release that shooting came from a house under construction opposite the center and targeted Crimean self-defense units as well the military center itself.
“Earlier today self-defense units were informed that a group of armed men had been discovered in a partially inhabited building,” the press release said. “As the self-defense were taking measures to check, they came under fire, presumably from a sniper rifle,” police said, adding that the shooting came “in two directions from one spot.”
One self-defense unit member was killed and another wounded, police said. One Ukrainian soldier from the military research center was also killed, and another was wounded.
Crimea police and Prosecutor's Office staff are investigating the attack.
According to RT information, the scene of the shooting is a small Ukrainian military topography research center, and the majority of the staff who work there are women. The center’s area is rather small, and servicemen have only six machine guns and three Makarov guns to provide security. The center reportedly decided to join up with Crimea and Russia and was preparing paperwork to go over.
Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov told Russia’s Channel One that this attack is reminiscent of the Maidan sniper shootings.
“At the moment two people are dead as a result of a provocation, a sabotage. The situation allows me to conclude that the same techniques that were used at Maidan are being used now because most likely one assaulter fired at both sides – one Ukrainian serviceman and one man from self-defense forces of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea were killed.”
“The location of the sniper was identified,” he added.
Earlier, Ukrainian servicemen told RT that last night unknown groups tried to break into several military bases, but self-defense units managed to prevent them from entering.
“Guys from self-defense told me today that they were afraid of provocations," Lida Vasilevskaya tweeted.
The Crimean Interior Ministry did not rule out a provocation aimed at complicating the situation in the city after Crimea and Sevastopol were accepted into the Russian Federation.
Immediately after the attack, despite the initial confusion and lack of verified details of what exactly happened in Simferopol, as well as a stream of conflicting reports, Kiev claimed that “Russian soldiers started shooting at Ukrainian servicemen."
“This is a war crime without any statute of limitations," coup-appointed Prime Minister Yatsenyuk told a meeting at the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.
In another immediate reaction to the accident, acting President Aleksandr Turchinov authorized Ukrainian troops stationed in Crimea to use firearms to “defend their lives."

From the Kremlin - no translation needed!

Check out this short video of the actual signing of the agreement of reincorporation of Crimea and Sevastopol into Russia and see for yourself the mood in the Russian Federal Assembly (no translation needed):


Crimea SITREP March 18, 11:29 EST

Amazing events this morning in Moscow:
  • Putin has made what is arguably the most important and best speech of his career in front of the Russian Federal Assembly in which he made the case for a re-integration of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol into Russia as subjects of the Russian Federation.  For the first time ever, his speech was met withs long standing ovations and shouts of "Russia! Russia!" by the audience.  I will try to get subtitled video footage of this amazing event.
  • Immediately after this speech, President Putin, Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksenov, Sevastopol mayor Aleksey Chaly and top Crimean official Vladimir Konstantinov signed the treaty.
  • The treaty states that there shall be three official national languages in Crimea: Russian, Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar.
  • The US and EU have adopted a number of sanctions against Russia which, frankly, are both goofy and vindicative as they clearly target indivuduals not for their role in the recent events, but for their views.  The Guardian wrote a halfway decent article about this which you might want to check here.
  • In response, Russian lawmakers have adopted a resolution asking President Obama and the EU to please sanction them all.
I just saw this on YouTube: misses the beginning, bad video, but the best available right now.  Listen for yourself:


Monday, March 10, 2014

CrossTalk: Crimea's Fait Accompli


Thursday, March 6, 2014

Neo-Fascist Ukrainian insurgents attack a bus with Russian civilians near Cherkassy

This happened in February 20th, 2014, in the Cherkassy region of the Ukraine: Noe-Fascist Ukrainian insurgents attacked several buses with Russian civilians who were burned, murdered, tortured and humiliated.


This is a quick translation of the audio:
Reporter: On February the 20th, in the Cherkassy Oblast, a mob of armed insurgents stopped several buses with citizens from Simferopol.  The passengers were beat up and dragged out of the bus.   They were then piled up upon each other, they were forced to walk crouching on their heels, and forced to sing the Ukrainian anthem.

Interviewee: they were hammering the buses and pouring petrol on them, on one of their checkpoints they were executing people with shotguns, the buses there were all burned, they were throwing buckets of petrol on our bus and setting fire to it.  When people fled the bus there were killed with baseball bats.  We could have resisted, of course, but they all had firearms which they were not hiding.   The go around in the middle of the day with assault-rifles and shotguns taken from the Berkut, with hunting rifles and sawed-off shotguns.

Reporter: some of the buses were simply burned down. In Simferopol the passengers came back as if they had just returned from the enemy's side of a warzone.

Interviewee: they stopped the bus and they began shooting at them, they forced people out and then began shooting and pouring petrol.  We were all beaten.  They broke my arm and my collarbone with a rebar.  I am only a citizen of Crimea.  I am just from Crimea, do you understand, why do we need such a Ukraine?   They think that they are above everybody else, for them we are nonhumans only because we speak Russian!

Reporter: the Crimean authorities did inform Kiev of what happened.  No reaction.  The Revolution does not punish its heroes.
Unlike "official" Kiev, the Ukie blogosphere did pick up on this story, but gave it its own spin: they say that these buses were filled with pro-Russian provocateurs which they call "titushki" so that is why they got stopped, "arrested" and burned.  I am sure that this explanation will fully convince the western media and politicians, but for the people of Crimea this is yet another reason to want out for the ugly Banderastan the US and EU are building in the Ukraine.

The Saker

Friday, February 28, 2014

What really happened overnight in Crimea?

This night sure was interesting.  It appears that a group of unidentified armed men took control of the Belbek and Simferopol airports and, according to some reports, of an air-traffic control facility, then left.  They kept a low profile, were extremely polite and said that they had come to prevent a "Ukrainian paratrooper force" from landing, but that this had been a false alarm.  They then apologized and left.  The pro-nationalist media first accused the Black Sea Fleet, which immediately issued a denial, then they blamed the Russian Spetsnaz GRU for the operation.  Interestingly, a group of Mi-24 attack helicopters was seen flying in the direction of the Belbek airport the same day, and filmed by a civilian driver on the highway.  Check it out:



Pro-nationalist sites have published the following photos which they claim show the armed men in question:




Also, a detachment of Ukrainian Border Guards in Balaklava have been surrounded by what the nationalists claim is Russian Naval Infantry unit which, according to the same sources, declared that they mission was to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of insurgents.


Finally, it was reported that a Turkish airliner which was scheduled to land in Crimea decided to turn around and fly back upon hearing the news of the seizure of the airports.

What does all that mean?

I will be honest with you and immediately admit that I don't know for sure.  My sense is that something triggered an alert on the Russian side, possibly the arrival of the Turkish aircraft.  After all, why did it turn back instead of either landing like other aircraft did, or land somewhere nearby?  Could it be that there was something aboard this plane which the Turks did not want the Russians to seize?

Concerning the helicopters seen: these are Mi-24 which the Black Sea Fleet does not use.  As far as I know, the only Mi-24 unit of the Russian Navy is the 125th Independent Helicopter Squadron of the Baltic Fleet and it is based in Chkalovsk, near Kaliningrad, very far from the Ukraine.

Again, I might be mistaken (maybe the footage is ancient, or filmed elsewhere), but I have the feeling that the nationalists are saying the truth when they claim that Russian combat helicopters have crossed the border and executed some mission in the Crimea.  I counted a dozen Mi-24 in this video, which is *a lot* of firepower.  Also, each Mi-24 can fit up to 8 soldiers, so in this case we could assume that each could carry at least 4 heavily armed soldiers and their gear, for a total of 48 combatants.  But since there is no shortage of local manpower, my guess is that these were flying as fire support for another unit, probably those who seized the airports.

But if Russia thought that some threat justified sending in 12 Mi-24s is broad daylight, could it also have sent in some Spetsnaz units?  I would say that yes, this is possible.  So, again, I think that the nationalist who claim that what they saw was a Spetsnaz GRU operation might well be right.  Lastly, and very subjectively, that very polite and low profile attitude towards bystanders is very typical of Russian Spetsnaz forces, I saw that with my own eyes in Moscow in 1993 when the arrogant and big-mouth forces which has crushed the Parliament were replaced by real Spetsnaz units: these guys were all very polite, very distant and, frankly, very scary in highly focused attitude.

So my sense is that there was some threat which was perceived serious enough by the Russian military to send in troops from across the border, probably not because of any shortage of manpower locally, but because specialized troops were better suited to the mission.  The Russian Spetsnaz secured the airports, the Naval Infantry unit blocked the Ukrainian Border Guard while the local volunteer militias were used to shut down the roads and assure general protection.  The threat than receded, and Russians left their positions and withdrew.

Or maybe there never was any threat and the purpose of all that was a show of force.  Could be.  The maneuvers ordered by Putin in western Russia will make it very hard for the US to keep track of who is doing what and under the cover of training missions a lot can be done.  So maybe this was just a way to send a message to Kiev, Brussels and Washington?

Whatever may be the case, and maybe I am totally wrong here, but my sense is that Russian forces did cross into Crimea last night.

The Saker

PS: in the meantime, the Russian Duma has been busy working on two proposed laws: on granting Russian citizenship to Ukrainians on a expedited and accelerated basis and on, I kid you not, making it easier for a foreign state to join the Russian Federation.  The writing is on the wall.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

The Ukraine, Crimea and Kaliningrad

Just a couple of short things I want to report on.

Ukraine: I always knew that Yanukovich was a coward and a totally unprincipled man.  That, and an idiot, of course.  Well, he just proved it again.  Not only did he let that old Soviet Politburo-style, semi-mummified, and thoroughly sclerotic moron McCain enter the Ukraine just to visit the "Euromaidan" crowd, he also caved in to the demands of the so-called opposition (which at this point should be called *insurgents* or *rebels*) and ended up sacking top security officials and blaming the riot police for the violence.  I have seen the footage of the violence and I can tell you that the cops showed amazing restraint in the face of what was a carefully prepared and well executed assault using heavy stones, metal bars, chains, and tear gas.  In any other country the cops would have opened fire.  Yet Yanukovich did not even have the courage to stand behind those who protect him.   Worse, he also freed all the rioters arrested for assaulting the cops.  Now, I am not a big fan of riot police in general - I see them like dogs ready to assault anybody their master(s) order them to - but in this case I have to say that they were extraordinarily restrained, really.  And yet, Yanukovich caved in a blamed them for everything.  If Yanukovich had deliberately wanted to appear weak and pathetic he could not have done a better job.  What a piece of garbage his guys is...


Euromaidan

Ukraine: I have been very critical of pro-Russian Ukrainians and Russians in the Ukraine and I have to admit that I should have made a special distinction for the Crimean Peninsula were truly interesting things are happening.  To make a long story short, the Crimean authorities have officially warned that they would not allow the pro-EU thugs to dictate the future of the Crimean Peninsula.  They have also told the population of Crimea to be ready to defend its autonomous status and future.  It appears that unlike the lukewarm and confused pro-Yanukovich demonstrators from the Eastern Ukraine who traveled to Kiev, the Crimeans are far more determined and focused.  On one hand, this is very good, but on the other, this is also very scary because if it comes to a violent standoff between the central authority (whoever will be in power in Kiev after Yanukovich) and the population of the Crimean Peninsula there is a 100% certitude that the forces of the Black Sea Fleet will get involved.  In purely military terms, the Black Sea Fleet forces can defend the Peninsula, but that would mean a de-facto war between the Ukraine and Russia.  Again, in purely military terms, Russia can easily beat the Ukraine, but the human and political costs could be horrendous, and the risks of a NATO intervention very big, especially if a crazy person like Hillary is in power in DC.  This is stuff of nightmares and may God prevent that from occurring.


Iskander-M

Russia - EU relations: several newspapers have revealed recently that Russia has already deployed its Iskander-M missiles in Kaliningrad.  Polish and Lithuanian politicians have expressed their concern and worry.  What did these idiots think - that Russia was jocking when it warned about a response to the deployment of the US anti-missile system in Eastern Europe?  Now they are all living with a crosshair painted on their thick foreheads.  Enjoy!

The Saker

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Clashes in Crimea

According to Pravda.ru, Ukrainian nationalists have organized a congress in the center of the city of Sevastopol in Crimea. About 1000 local residents demonstrated under the slogan "Fascism will not pass". Clashes ensued. About 300 demonstrators were able to break through the police barriers and were then violently engaged by police special forces. A number of arrests were made.
-------
Commentary: there we go, exactly as I predicted. The Ukrainian nationalists are staging their meetings in the city center of Sevastopol exactly under the same logic which brings the Israeli settlers to organize "religious" events smack in the middle of Palestinian villages: the point is to trigger a violent response which can then be legally crushed under the heading of "law and order".

For the Ukrainian nationalists an overt conflict with the Russian-speaking population is the best, if not only, way to bring the public's attention away from the absolute disaster in which 18 years of independence have resulted in and to focus all the attention on "patriotic" actions.

There is an very ugly historical precedent: the sudden and violent invasion of the Trans-Dniester Republic by Moldavian forces in 1992 resulting in the local Russian 14th Army being very reluctantly involved in the conflict, primarily because the officers' families were directly endangered by the assault. This could also happen in Crimea where the Russian Black Sea Fleet is based. A particularly ominous development in this situation was the demand made by the Ukrainian government that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) withdraw all its officers from Crimea by December 13, 2009. Needless to say, the Russian simply cannot let its Fleet and dependent civilians unprotected in such a dangerous context, thus this demand will simply force the FSB to operate illegally (and increase the force protection mission of the GRU).