More details about the CIA SNAFU in Moscow and some general context information

Interesting information is being leaked to reporters in Moscow about the recent CIA spy incident in Moscow:

a) The Russians knew that Fogle was CIA even before he arrived in Russia.

b) The Russians had already expelled another US diplomat in January of this year for attempting to recruit a Russian citizen and told the Americans to stop these kinds of attempts.   The Americans ignored these warning so the Russians got fed up and decided to highly publicize this arrest.

In this context, I would like to add the following reminder:

During the 1990s the Russian security services practically collapsed: their funding almost stopped, corrupt or even outright traitorous individuals were named at the top positions, secrets were given to the American "friends" is mass quantities, key institutes and academies were shut down, many officers resigned and went into "private practice" (for the oligarchs, the mob, private companies, banks, etc.), the media engaged in a hate-campaign against them, their legal powers were curtailed, etc.  Last, but not least, the security services were "reformed", "reformed" and then "reformed" some more, and then "reformed" again.  As you know, in the 1990s being "reformed" meant being destroyed.

Under Putin this state of affairs dramatically changed, in particular for the FSB (internal security service).  The FSB was for many reasons the easiest service to rebuild and Putin's determined efforts to re-establish law and order in Russia made such a process a top priority.  Things were far more difficult for the SVR, the external intelligence service which is a far more complex structure.  Things did begin to improve there, but at a slow(er) pace not because of any bad will (Putin himself was ex- PGU KGB which is now called the SVR), but because of inherently difficult nature of such a task.  The one service which originally appeared to have least suffered from the "reforms" of the democrats, the GRU or military intelligence, then rapidly collapsed.  Though I don't know that for a fact, I can imagine several plausible reasons for this collapse:

1) The GRU was a military intelligence service and the fact that the armed forces were "reformed" over and over again obviously affected it.

2) The GRU was a very expensive intelligence service to run due to its huge technological capabilities (space assets), its high-tech institutes and large size thus when the Russian economy collapsed, there was simply no money to run it.

3) The GRU is very secretive and secrecy breeds corruption.  Furthermore, the GRU had a lot of very valuable assets (in terms of monetary value) and judging by the level of corruption in the regular armed forces, one can only imagine the level of corruption in the GRU.

4) The GRU has always been a competitor to the other Soviet and, later, Russian security services.  So when Putin came to power, his KGB/SVR past and corporate closeness to the FSB put the GRU into an "2nd rate" position compared to the other services.

5) Some still secret crisis did happen inside the GRU with an important number of top officials killed in very mysterious circumstances.  While (almost) nobody knows what really happened (all we have is rumors) it appears likely that some kind of ugly "war" involving part of the GRU did result in a weakening of this organization.

6) The performance of the GRU has been, shall we say, less than stellar in a number of occasions including some major intelligence failures in Chechnia, poor intelligence work during the 08.08.08 war against Georgia, and a couple of clumsy intelligence failures abroad.

Igor Sergun

There are even more smaller reasons which I will not mention here for the sake of space.  Bottom line is this: the GRU is now the weakest of the Russian security services even though it is now headed by a real career GRU officer - Igor Sergun - about whom very little is known, but who has made an excellent impression so far.  Personally, I expect the GRU to slowly but surely recover under with combined efforts of Defense Minister Shoigu, Chief of Staff Valerii Gerasimov and GRU Commander in Chief Igor Sergun and I expect the new GRU to be very different from the old one with the biggest changes probably coming in the Russian special forces structure.

I wanted to mention these facts to illustrate an important feature of the context of the latest CIA SNAFU in Moscow: the after two decades of absolute collapse, the Russian security services are back, some of them probably better shape than their Soviet predecessors (I think of the FSB here).   This means that after two decades of careless arrogance western intelligence services need to adapt to this new reality and not assume that the 1990s are not really over.  They are.

Whether Fogle himself was a drooling idiot or somebody with mental issues really doesn't matter.  What matter is that the Russian security services are clearly punishing the USA for not taking their previous warning seriously.

This is what we see across the board: the Americans just can't accept the fact that Russia under Putin  has truly slipped away from its imperial control and that from now on the USA will have to treat Russia as an equal and respected partner if it wants to do business with it.  If not - they can expect even more painful or embarrassing "push back" from the Kremlin.

When not in denial, the other typical western reaction is a mix paranoia and phobia: the Evil Empire is back, the Russia is becoming a totalitarian KGB-run state, complete with dissidents (-: Khodorkovsky :-) and blue-eyed spies under every bed.  Check out the cover of one of those paranoid reports: it shows a rabid bear, surrounded by the emblems of various Russian security services.  This bear is clearly up to no good and about to attack all sorts of noble and freedom loving innocent people.

Another example of this kind of paranoia is the report of the notorious CIA front "Freedom House" which is modestly entitled "Contending with Putin's Russia: a call for American leadership". 

By showing a row of Russian riot police (obviously standing there with the clear intention to mercilessly beat up any putative democrat left in Putin's Russia) Freedom House suggest an even wider agenda and this is why this cover is even better: not only does it reduce all of "Putin's Russia" to a row of mean looking riot cops, it also clearly states that the world is

calling for "American leadership" to deal with those nasty coppers. The cover with the bear really did not suggest a 'solution' whereas Freedom House is far more ambitious and even suggest a moral obligation for the USA to stand up to these Russian bullies. Yes, sure, this is all kindergarten level propaganda, but with a general public lobotomized by hours of staring at the TV, this is good enough to trigger the correct horrified response.

The core issue is this: due to decades, if not centuries, of highly misleading propaganda, most folks in the West simply are unable to imagine a state which is simultaneously 1) supported by a majority of people and democratic 2) with strong enough institutions to defend itself and its people and 3) not subordinated to the USA.  In this mindset, world leaders can all be split into 2 basic categories: servile and obedient servants or vicious and bloodthirsty dictators.  As Dubya said, you are either with us or with the terrorists.  And nevermind that this kind of simplistic dichotomy alienates almost the entire planet as long as it keeps things simple and justifies grotesquely bloated military and 'security' budgets.

Regardless of what made him act the way he did Fogel is an iconic image of this confused, infantile, embarrassed and clueless USA which confidently treads into a world it does not understand and ends up being stunned when it stumbles.  It is really rather comical to observe.

The Saker

CIA spook in Moscow - just incompetent or mental? (UPDATED)

I have been listening to the Russian reports about yesterday's CIA SNAFU and unless the Russians are lying through their teeth, the details which are emerging just make no sense to me.

According to the Russian media, Ryan Christopher Fogle, the third secretary of the Political Section of the American embassy in Moscow and CIA spook, gave a telephone call to a Russian security services officer who specializes in anti-terror operations in the North Caucasus and offered to recruit him (yup, over the phone!).  The Russian officer refused.  Then Fogle called him again and insisted that they meet, offering him 100'000 Euros.   If that is true, this is already mind-bogglingly dumb.  Worse, according to some Russian sources Fogle also made the same offer by email (leaving a paper trail of his clumsy recruitment efforts).

Then it get outright hilarious: Fogle showed up to the meeting wearing a wig and with, I kind you not, sunglasses even though the meeting took place at 23:30 (11:30PM).  In his bag, he had a total of 3 pairs of sunglasses, a compass, a knife, a flashlight, an plan of Moscow, an old cellphone, 2 wigs and lots of money.  Take a look for yourself:

Now, I have never been a great fan of the CIA whom I always viewed as a nasty but only semi-competent outfit who instead of serving the interests of the US people is really serving the interests of the US plutocracy, the "1%" which owns the USA.

But, honestly, that kind of kindergarten-level of gross incompetence and wannabe Hollywood spy gear really looks weird to me.  Either they are all gone totally apeshit at Langley, or there is more to this story than anybody is willing to report.

First, maybe the Russians are lying just to make fun of the CIA while the CIA can hardly refute it all.  Possible, but extremely unlikely.  That would be plain silly and, besides, that could invite a retaliation in kind.

Or, and that is my hypothesis, maybe there is something really wrong with Fogle.  What if Fogle (whether he ever was CIA or not) simply had mental issues?  What if he just "lost it" and *wanted* to be caught?

Look at this guy's face and expression:

Doesn't he remind you of somebody?  Yes, exactly!  He looks like the type of squeaky-clean guy who shows up unannounced and uninvited at your door and asks you with a blissful grin on his face "have you met Jesus?".

I admit - looking like a blissful idiot is hardly a proof of anything, but when you consider that in the context of all the crazy circumstances of this arrest, it makes me wonder.

Finally, there is the demeanor of everybody on the videos shown on Russian TV: US diplomats are summoned to the FSB where they are introduced to a rather peaceful looking Fogle who shows no sign of fear or even embarrassment.  As for the US diplomats, they seem puzzled.  Normally, being arrested by the FSB at the moment you are carrying a bag full of compromising material should at the very least startle and upset you.  Ok, Fogle knew he had diplomatic immunity, but at the very least being caught means expulsion, a huge embarrassment, and a rather unpleasant series of debriefings in Langley.  And yet, Fogle looks like he does not give a damn.

Again, I have to admit that all of the above is 100% pure speculation and maybe one day we will get the real picture of what happened.  But so far my personal feeling is "this is just too much, too much....".

So what do you think: incompetent or mental?

The Saker

UPDATE: New info just came in: turns out that Fogle is CIA, and that since he had arrived in Moscow in 2011 he had already participated in several CIA operations in Moscow.  Also, the Russian media has confirmed that the officer Fogle was trying to recruit was with the FSB (previously, that info was not officially confirmed).

CIA agent trying to recruit Russian intelligence officer detained in Moscow

RT reports:

CIA agent trying to recruit Russian intelligence officer detained in Moscow


CIA agent trying to recruit Russian intelligence officer detained in Moscow

Russia’s counterintelligence agency has detained a CIA agent in Moscow trying to recruit an officer of the Russian secret service, the Federal Security Service (FSB) announced. The agent was operating under guise of career diplomat.

The FSB Public Relations Center has announced that the person detained is Ryan Christopher Fogle, the third secretary of the Political Section of the American embassy in Moscow.

The agency stressed that Christopher had special technical equipment, printed instructions for the Russian citizen being recruited, a large sum of money and means to change the person’s appearance.

The detainee was delivered to the FSB receiving office where he has been questioned and after all the necessary procedures he has been handed over to representatives of the US embassy in Moscow.

The website of the American embassy in Russia informs that its Political Section is engaged in “bringing to the attention of the Russian government the US position on the issues of foreign policy and security.” The section’s other task is to “inform Washington about the main provisions of the foreign and defense policy of Russia,” as well as Russian domestic political life.


Ryan C Fogle, 3d secretary of US embassy, was detained in Moscow by the Russian counterintelligence agency (FSB)

Disguise allegedly used by Ryan Fogle (FSB)

Ryan Fogle inside FSB office (FSB)

The one-page letter to a would-be recruit proposes a payment of US$100,000 for an interview to discuss possible cooperation and promises up to $1 million a year payment if the contact agrees to supply the American side with the information it demands.

The letter also contains a step-by-step instruction how to create a new Gmail account that would be used for future contacts. The instruction repeatedly stresses not to present any real contact information, like phone numbers, email or home addresses.


Instruction allegedly used to recruit Russian intelligence officer with offers of money and means of conducting the conspiracy (FSB)

It is advised not to use personal handheld mobile devices and notebooks for registration, proposing to use an internet café to go through the procedure. Another option, the instruction says, is to buy a new device especially for contacts and pay for it in cash, with the expenses to be reimbursed.

Once a new Gmail account is created, the recruit should write a letter to ‘unbacggdA@gmail.com and wait one week for a reply.

“Thank you for reading this. We look forward to working with you in the nearest future. Your friends,” the instruction ends.

US Ambassador to the Russian Federation Michael McFaul refused to comment on the detention of his subordinate for espionage activities.

On his Twitter account he simply wrote ‘no’ answering a question about Ryan Fogle.

But tomorrow he will definitely have to have an answer to the Russian Foreign Ministry, where he has been summoned to give an explanation concerning the incident.

Ryan Fogle’s pass to the US embassy (FSB)

Money allegedly used by Fogle for recruiting (FSB)

Ryan Fogle’s diplomatic pass (FSB)

Iran raises stakes with claims it has netted 12 US spies

The Sydney Morning Herald:

IRAN has claimed a blow against US spying efforts on its nuclear program and strategic industries with the capture of 12 CIA ''assets''. US officials acknowledged its spy network targeting Iran had suffered a setback and expressed fears its contacts would be executed by the regime.

The Iranian Intelligence Minister, Heydar Moslehi, said on Thursday the alleged spies worked at the highest levels of ''major firms involved in oil, gas and nuclear industries''.  Parviz Sorouri, a member of Iran's national security and foreign policy committee, said the arrested spies were on a mission to cripple Iran in vital sectors with military and security links.  On Wednesday, IRNA state news agency quoted an Iranian official as saying the spies had been gathering intelligence from security and military units as well as its sensitive nuclear program.

''The main mission of this act of espionage was related to Iran's progress in the fields of nuclear technology and also military and security activities,'' Mr Sorouri said. ''The US and Zionist regime's espionage apparatuses were trying to damage Iran both from inside and outside with a heavy blow, using regional intelligence services. Fortunately, with swift reaction by the Iranian intelligence department, the actions failed to bear fruit.''

Mr Sorouri's comments follow reports on Monday that Iran and the Lebanese Shiite militia, Hezbollah, had identified alleged CIA informants, including a network based in a Pizza Hut.  The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, said in June his group had uncovered at least two CIA informants within its ranks but his claims were met with scepticism at the time.  The US embassy in Lebanon denied the accusation but officials conceded Hezbollah had methodically picked off CIA informants in recent months.

Former US officials told Reuters this week those arrested were indeed working for the CIA. The officials claimed the agents were ''believed to be local recruits'' working for the CIA rather than US citizens.  Iran did not specify the nationality of the individuals it has arrested and the CIA has declined to comment on the recent reports, saying ''it does not, as a rule discuss allegations of operational activities''.  A former CIA chief in Beirut, Robert Baer, told ABC News the arrests were ''catastrophic'' and amounted to a demonstration American had ''lost its touch'' in Middle East espionage.

The arrests further raise tensions in Iran's already strained relationship with the US. US authorities said last month factions inside the Iranian regime had conspired to kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington.  Iran denied the allegations and one Iranian diplomat told The Guardian the US had resorted to an ''entrapment technique'' in order to smear Tehran in the eyes of the world.  US allegations were met with scepticism because of the sloppy nature of the alleged assassination plot and the limited evidence provided by the US.

In a tit-for-tat reaction this month, Iranian officials accused the US of committing acts of terrorism. Iran said at the time it had evidence showing the US had been behind ''terror'' operations in Iran, including the assassination of its nuclear scientists.

Hezbollah dismantles two major CIA spy rings in Lebanon and Iran

Haaretz reports:

Report: Dozens of U.S. spies captured in Lebanon and Iran

Dozens of spies working for the CIA were captured recently in Lebanon and Iran, current and former U.S. officials told The Associated Press and ABC News on Monday.

The CIA’s operations in Lebanon have been badly damaged after Hezbollah identified and captured a number of the U.S. spies, officials told The Associated Press.

Hezbollah’s longtime leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, boasted on television in June that he had rooted out at least two CIA spies who had infiltrated the ranks of Hezbollah, which the U.S. considers a terrorist group closely allied with Iran. Though the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon officially denied the accusation, current and former officials concede that it happened and the damage has spread even further.

According to a report by ABC News, there were two distinct espionage rings targeting Iran and Hezbollah in which spies were recruited by the CIA.

Current and former U.S. officials said the two different spy rings were discovered separately but both caused a significant setback in U.S. efforts to track Iran's nuclear activities and Hezbollah actions against Israel.

ABC reported that according to U.S. officials, the CIA used the codeword "Pizza" when discussing where to meet with the informants.

Other former officials said CIA case officers met several Lebanese informants at a local Beirut Pizza Hut branch, which helped Hezbollah identify the spies helping the CIA.

U.S. officials, however, deny any allegations that their agents were compromised at Pizza Hut, ABC reported.

In recent months, CIA officials have secretly been scrambling to protect their remaining spies — foreign assets or agents working for the agency — before Hezbollah can find them.

To be sure, some deaths are to be expected in shadowy spy wars. It’s an extremely risky business and people get killed. But the damage to the agency’s spy network in Lebanon has been greater than usual, several former and current U.S. officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about security matters.

The Lebanon crisis is the latest mishap involving CIA counterintelligence, the undermining or manipulating of the enemy’s ability to gather information. Former CIA officials have said that once-essential skill has been eroded as the agency shifted from outmaneuvering rival spy agencies to fighting terrorists. In the rush for immediate results, former officers say, tradecraft has suffered.

The most recent high-profile example was the suicide bomber who posed as an informant and killed seven CIA employees and wounded six others in Khost, Afghanistan in December 2009.

Last year, then-CIA director Leon Panetta said the agency had to maintain “a greater awareness of counterintelligence.” But eight months later, Nasrallah let the world know he had bested the CIA, demonstrating that the agency still struggles with this critical aspect of spying and sending a message to those who would betray Hezbollah.

The CIA was well aware the spies were vulnerable in Lebanon. CIA officials were warned, including the chief of the unit that supervises Hezbollah operations from CIA headquarters in Langley, Va., and the head of counterintelligence. It remains unclear whether anyone has been or will be held accountable in the wake of this counterintelligence disaster or whether the incident will affect the CIA’s ability to recruit assets in Lebanon.

In response to AP’s questions about what happened in Lebanon, a U.S. official said Hezbollah is recognized as a complicated enemy responsible for killing more Americans than any other terrorist group before September 2001. The agency does not underestimate the organization, the official said.

The CIA’s toughest adversaries, like Hezbollah and Iran, have for years been improving their ability to hunt spies, relying on patience and guile to exploit counterintelligence holes.

In 2007, for instance, when Ali-Reza Asgari, a brigadier general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran, disappeared in Turkey, it was assumed that he was either killed or defected. In response, the Iranian government began a painstaking review of foreign travel by its citizens, particularly to places like Turkey where Iranians don’t need a visa and could meet with foreign intelligence services.

It didn’t take long, a Western intelligence official told the AP, before the U.S., Britain and Israel began losing contact with some of their Iranian spies.

The State Department last year described Hezbollah as “the most technically capable terrorist group in the world,” and the Defense Department estimates it receives between $100 million and $200 million per year in funding from Iran.

Backed by Iran, Hezbollah has built a professional counterintelligence apparatus that Nasrallah — whom the U.S. government designated an international terrorist a decade ago — proudly describes as the “spy combat unit.” U.S. intelligence officials believe the unit, which is considered formidable and ruthless, went operational in about 2004.

Using the latest commercial software, Nasrallah’s spy-hunters unit began methodically searching for spies in Hezbollah’s midst. To find them, U.S. officials said, Hezbollah examined cellphone data looking for anomalies. The analysis identified cellphones that, for instance, were used rarely or always from specific locations and only for a short period of time. Then it came down to old-fashioned, shoe-leather detective work: Who in that area had information that might be worth selling to the enemy?

The effort took years but eventually Hezbollah, and later the Lebanese government, began making arrests. By one estimate, 100 Israeli assets were apprehended as the news made headlines across the region in 2009. Some of those suspected Israeli spies worked for telecommunications companies and served in the military.

Back at CIA headquarters, the arrests alarmed senior officials. The agency prepared a study on its own vulnerabilities, U.S. officials said, and the results proved to be prescient.

The analysis concluded that the CIA was susceptible to the same analysis that had compromised the Israelis, the officials said.

CIA managers were instructed to be extra careful about handling sources in Lebanon. A U.S. official said recommendations were issued to counter the potential problem.

But it’s unclear what preventive measures were taken by the Hezbollah unit chief or the officer in charge of the Beirut station. Former officials say the Hezbollah unit chief is no stranger to the necessity of counterintelligence and knew the risks. The unit chief has worked overseas in hostile environments like Afghanistan and played an important role in the capture of a top terrorist while stationed in the Persian Gulf region after the attacks of 9/11.

“We’ve lost a lot of people in Beirut over the years, so everyone should know the drill,” said a former Middle East case officer familiar with the situation.

But whatever actions the CIA took, they were not enough. Like the Israelis, bad tradecraft doomed these CIA assets and the agency ultimately failed to protect them, an official said. In some instances, CIA officers fell into predictable patterns when meeting their sources, the official said.

This allowed Hezbollah to identify assets and case officers and unravel at least part of the CIA’s spy network in Lebanon. There was also a reluctance to share cases and some files were put in “restricted handling.” The designation severely limits the number of people who know the identity of the source but also reduces the number of experts who could spot problems that might lead to their discovery, officials said.

Nasrallah’s televised announcement in June was followed by finger-pointing among departments inside the CIA as the spy agency tried figure out what went wrong and contain the damage.

The fate of these CIA assets is unknown. Hezbollah treats spies differently, said Matthew Levitt, a counterterrorism and intelligence expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Studies who’s writing a book about the terrorist organization

“It all depends on who these guys were and what they have to say,” Levitt said. “Hezbollah has disappeared people before. Others they have kept around.”

Who’s responsible for the mess in Lebanon? It’s not clear. The chief of Hezbollah operations at CIA headquarters continues to run the unit that also focuses on Iranians and Palestinians. The CIA’s top counterintelligence officer, who was one of the most senior women in the clandestine service, recently retired after approximately five years in the job. She is credited with some important cases, including the recent arrests of Russian spies who had been living in the U.S. for years.

Officials said the woman was succeeded by a more experienced operations officer. That officer has held important posts in Moscow, Southeast Asia, Europe and the Balkans, important frontlines of the agency’s spy wars with foreign intelligence services and terrorist organizations.