It appears that a number of distinct but linked processes are simultaneously taking place:
1) a militia force composed of volunteers is being transformed into a regular army under a single military command subordinated to political authorities. At least, that is the theory, but so far this has not been achieved.
2) various military Novorussian commanders have different views on key issues (such as the Minsk Agreement) and personal ambitions (Khodakovski?).
3) Moscow is exerting pressure on the Novorussian leaders to get them to comply with the Kremlin's policies.
4) Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs are also exerting their own influence to get an outcome favorable to their financial interests.
These are four distinct processes and not one single factor and those who present a simplistic "single explanation" model are simply missing the complexity of the situation. That does not, however, make the situation any better.
So much for the stupid theory that Putin represents the interests of the Russian oligarchy or, even better, is the "puppet" of these oligarchs.
The junta controlled part of the Ukraine (I call Banderastan) is in full turmoil. The Minsk Agreement as absolutely infuriated most of the Ukie political leaders. Predictably, Iarosh and Tiagnibok are up in arms, the former even threatening to overthrow Poroshenko. Worse, Timoshenko has made something of a comeback denouncing the Agreement as a vile surrender to the Moskals and a sellout of Ukie national interests.
|Rada Deputy tossed in trashbin|
There is now a very real risk that the Right Sector could literally overthrow the Poroshenko regime (Libya anybody?). And even if the Right Sector does no such thing, of fails doing it, the upcoming elections are nothing short of really scary. With the massive brainwashing going on throughout the Ukie media there is a real risk of a wall-to-wall "loony" Rada with Liashko in charge of the biggest party and assorted neo-Nazis filling the rest of the seats.
|Nazis vs oligarchs|
And if that does not scare you enough, keep in mind that the Ukie economy, propped up by the AngloZionists, has not truly collapsed yet. But it will. Soon. Then things will get really, really ugly. The examples of Iraq and Libya immediately come to mind. In fact, Putin recently declared the following at the Seliger 2014 annual youth forum:
Do you remember the joke: "Whatever Russians make, they always end up with a Kalashnikov?" I get an impression that whatever Americans touch they always end up with Libya or Iraq.Apparently, he is absolutely right and Banderastan is now headed down the exact same road. Truth be told, there is only that long that the AngloZionists can keep Poroshenko in power and the remnants of economy of Banderastan afloat. Sooner or later - probably sooner - both will come tumbling down and then all hell will truly break lose
In the meantime, "Iats" has announced the "lustration" (purge) of the estimated 1'000'000 civil servants connected with the previous regime. Apparently, this does not including Poroshenko, Timoshenko, Turchinov or "Iats" himself (all of whom have served under previous Presidents in one capacity or another).
Crazy, crazy shit...
|Military situation September 15-17|
Amazingly, the NAF have still not taken full control of the Donetsk Airport. They have surrounded it and they control most, but not all of it. As for the Ukies there, they are categorically refusing to surrender and they are still shelling Donetsk on a daily basis. I can only explain this aberration as a consequence of the political infighting taking place in the Novorussian leadership.
One of the most likely explanation of the current is one given by the (excellent) Colonel Cassad:
With respect to concentration, the main forces of the junta are already deployed into Donbass. The junta cannot grow the group substantially yet. Taking the planned rotation of the detachments and the combat capable units that were pulled into the front into account, the junta can reinforce its group only by throwing restored battalion-tactical groups of previously routed detachments into action. However, their combat qualities appear quite dubious due to large losses in personnel and materiel. In essence, absent the 4-th wave of mobilization, the junta cannot substantially increase the headcount of its group, which remains approximately on the level of early July of 2014. Considering the failure of the previous 3 waves of mobilization, the possible results of the 4-th also trigger certain skepticism. The junta, of course, isn't close to the limiting values of its mobilization potential, but it is already experiencing serious difficulties. All of this is aggravated by materiel issues: by various estimates, the junta lost about 60-70% of materiel present in Donbass (and the worst thing for the junta is that more than 220 armored vehicles of varying degree of combat readiness ended up being captured by the NAF, which already put between a quarter and a third of captured trophies into action). Of course, there are still many tanks, IFVs, SPH, and MLRS in warehouses and repair facilities, but reinforcements in August and September couldn't compensate for huge losses. The attempts of getting materiel from NATO countries and the attempts to buy back the vehicles that were shipped on international defense contracts are supposed to close the gap in materiel that was formed. Ukraine continues to reap the fruits of its horrible looting of Soviet military legacy.This makes sense. The JRF did through its best men and equipment in its attempt to crush Novorussia in just a "few weeks" and it lost them. There are still numerically significant resources available to them, as shown by the large concentrations of forces they have massed but failed to effectively use so far.
As for the NAF, they have made some small progress in various locations, and they have made small retreats from others, but nothing crucial has taken place on their side either. Does that mean that the NAF and JRF have fought each other to a standstill? Maybe, I don't know and have no way to check. Still, my first explanation for this apparent stagnation on the military front is that both sides are too deeply involved in the the political infighting and the chaos resulting from it.
Those whom I jokingly refer to "prophets and mind readers" will probably make confident predictions based, as always, on simplistic models, but I won't. I know what Putin wants and Russia needs: regime change in Kiev. I also know what Putin does not want or Russia cannot afford: a Novorussian collapse. The two, of course, are linked. But how the situation will evolve now is too early to call.
I often think that the (liberal, Masonic, pro-western, democratic and oligarchic) Kerensky regime came to power in February. Just like the Ukie Junta. Kerensky was overthrown in October of the same year. Just saying...