Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Under US pressure UN "disinvites" Iran from Geneva II talks - what will Russia and Syria do now?

OMG - it happened: Under US pressure UN "disinvites" Iran from Geneva II talks.  Now that is a direct challenge to Russia which logically should cancel its participation to the conference.  Syria, I believe should do the same.

Screw them.  This is a farce and neither Syria nor Russia should agree to participate in a farce organized by the side which lost the war.  I hope that Assad and Putin will not accept that absolutely outrageous situation.

Lavrov had declared that Iran's absence from Geneva II would be an "unforgivable mistake" and "profane" (he actually said that it would be a "profanation" which in Russian means something close to "abomination").   Great!  Now act on these words and pull out of this charade!

I want to clarify the following here: the minor reason why Russia and Syria should refuse to attend Geneva II without Iran is that Iran's exclusion just makes no sense.  But that is the minor reason only.  The major reason for refusing these terms is that the USA and the so-called "opposition" have lost the war and they are in no position to set terms.  History, including Russian history, has seen many examples of the loosing side dictating terms to the winning side and that is always a recipe for disaster.  Last time Russia  "snatched defeat from the jaws of victory" was at the infamous "Khasavyurt agreement" but that is hardly the only case.

Maybe I am being unfair to Putin, Lavrov and Assad, but I am literally terrified that they will fall into this trap.  But then, I am paranoid and pessimistic by natural inclination, upbringing, training and philosophy.  I hope that I am wrong this time...

So far, all we know is that Kerry called Lavrov today (the 20th).  No more details so far.

The Saker

PS: just listened to the 3AM Russian news.  Just reporting the fact. No reaction so far from Lavrov or Putin.  I have this really bad feeling....