Monday, December 3, 2012

Syria - a rather unexpected and optimistic scenario?

Thierry Meyssan is a complicated source to rate.  On one hand, he is a very well informed person and he has to be credited with being one of the first people to raise doubts about the 9/11 events.  But I also recall Meyssan sometimes mistaking his hopes for facts, and some of his analyses are superficial.  Anyway, he is in Syria now (he is very pro-regime), and he recently reported a version of events there which I find interesting and I would like to pass it on to you.

According to Meyssan, the recent Internet and phone shutdown in Syria was part of a government plan to force the insurgents to use their satellite phones, thereby revealing their position.  Meyssan claims that this tactic has been very effective and that the government forces were able to kill many insurgents, in particular those affiliated with al-Qaeda.  At the same time, Meyssan also reports that the insurgency has increased its pace of operations.

Meyssan claims that all these events reflect the attempts of both parties to the conflict to position themselves in the best possibly situation before negotiations which, according to Meyssan, will happen in February.

Meyssan claims that nothing will happen until the members of the new Obama Administration are fully sworn in.  Then, according to Meyssan, real negotiations will happen at the UN with eventually a deployment of UN forces in Syria in the course of March 2013.  The most interesting part of his version is that he claims that the bulk of these UN troops will be composed of soldiers from the CSTO.

Knowing the absolute *loathing* that the US and NATO have for the CSTO (with which they even refuse any formal contacts), this is very hard to imagine.  A far more likely version, in my opinion, would be the deployment of forces Arab League (as predicted by Russian experts).  And yet, Meyssan is basing is version of events on what he believes is an inevitable victory of the government forces which the West will want to avoid.

I am not at all sure that time is in the government's favor.  The only credible reason for that is, according to what I have heard, the fact that most of the population is starting to really fear and hate the crazy Jihadis in the insurgency who are, as usual, leaving a trail of atrocities in their wake.

Whatever may be the case, we might see the outlines of a possible solution: a *mix* of Arab League and CSTO forces?

What is sure is that Russia will never allow another Bosnia or Kosovo to happen.  If, and that is a big "if", a UN peacekeeping operation is approved by the UNSC Russia (and probably China) will definitely make sure that this will not turn into a cover for an invasion of Syria (like what NATO did in Croatia and Bosnia).

This is a very optimistic scenario and I am, by nature and by trade, a rather pessimistic person.  Over time, pessimists also tend to be proven right.  So I am passing to you this rather optimistic version with some reluctance - caveat emptor.

The Saker