I am under the very strong impression that a lot of folks are in a full-blown "panic" mode for no valid reason at all. I did my best to calm things down in my recent Q&A/FAQ+RFC post (if you have not read it *please* do so!) but my feeling is that my words have fallen on deaf ears. Then I tried again, by posting Yuri Baranchik's article. Again, I was underwhelmed with the response. So this time I have decided to let somebody much better qualified then myself, Alexander Mercouris, give it a try. Honestly, I don't expect that those who have fully made up their minds will be convinced by this effort either, but I hope to at least reassure those who are on the fence or just confused by a complex situation.
While I am on this topic, I have apparently confused many people by posting the Mozgovoi and Strelkov letters. Let me clarify, I did that because I assumed that they 1) he wants the same thing as I do 2) that they are honest and 3) that they might be right. However, as I have said it many times, the difference between "possible" and "probable" is absolutely huge. Yes, Mozgovoi and Strelkov might well be right, this is possible, but this is not probable, at least not in my opinion. I think that they are wrong.
|Russian Security Council Emblem
The ease and speed by which practically the entire Novorussian leadership was changed should indicate to you how high these men really are in the real Russian hierarchy of power and that, in turn, should tell you something about the kind of access they enjoy.
Anyway - please read Mercouris' analysis of the ceasefire agreement and protocol.
PS: for a full picture please also read Mark Sleboda's analysis who takes the opposite view and who sees the ceasefire as a sign that Russia is losing.