Wednesday, March 31, 2010

The latest bombing and a personal note

Dear friends,

The putatively 'Chechen' terrorists have detonated two more bombs in Russia, this time in Dagestan. In think that the trend here is clear - 'Chechen' terrorism is on the rise again, striking at strategic Russian targets (such as the Moscow-Petersburg train or the Moscow subway). The curious thing is that this is all happening while in Chechnia proper there is comparatively very little insurgent activity. I would like to offer you a hypothesis, a 'version of events', which makes sense to me but for which I have no proof whatsoever. I already mentioned it several times in the comments section, but I would like to submit it to you all for consideration:

The recent upsurge in 'Chechen' terrorism might have little or nothing to do with Chechnia. Yes, the executors of these operations are probably ethnic Chechens and they are probably acting under the orders of Doku Umarov, the modestly self-styled 'First Emir of the Caucasus Emirate". But so what? How does that explain anything?

Osama bin-Laden was a CIA agent for most of his life (he is probably dead by now) and there is overwhelming evidence that the entire Chechen insurgency was CIA supported via what came to be known as al-Qaeda. It is also quite clear that the British secret services have been working hand in hand with Boris Berezovsky and, therefore, with his Chechen agents, for many years too. So instead of referring to 'Chechen' terrorism, would it not make far more sense to speak of US and British terrorism? Are the Chechen insurgents not the Caucasian version of Jundallah - yet another CIA controlled terrorist network and is Doku Umarov not just the local Abdolmalek Rigi?

If this is true, what would explain the sudden surge in 'Chechen' terrorism in Russia? I would submit that all of the following:
  • Payback for the US/NATO defeat in the 08.08.08 war in Georgia in which Russian forces easily crushed NATO-funded, NATO-trained and NATO-commanded Georgian forces even though the latter achieved strategic and tactical surprise and had the numerical superiority up until the last day of the war.
  • The need to put Russian under pressure to yield to US demands over Iran, be it sanctions, the Russian completion of the Bushehr, the sale of S-300 air defense systems and the need to get a UN resolution against Iran.
  • Payback for the US defeat in the Ukraine where the end of the color-coded revolution (orange, this time) is a crushing disaster for US geostrategic interests.
  • The need to weaken Russian influence in the Caucasus (who would want to follow Saakashvili's example now?) and in Central Asia by showing that Russia is not nearly as strong as some might have perceived it to be.
  • Payback for Russian support (weapons and credits) for Hugo Chavez in Venezuela.
I think that it is far more likely that this explains the sudden surge of 'Chechen' terrorism in Russia than a rather inexplicable, apparently cause-less, truly 'Chechen' hypothesis. To repeat, there is no sign whatsoever that the Chechen insurgency has recovered from its close to total defeat in the 2nd Chechen war. All, and I mean all, the reports from Chechnia proper seem to indicate that the security situation is Chechnia is actually very good and that Moscow's control of the region, via Ramazan Kadyrov's 'heavy-handed' security services, is actually rather good. This is a little reported fact, but the Russian military is not, at the moment, actively involved in Chechnia at all. The security mission is shared by the FSB, the MVD and local police forces.

I might be wrong, of course. We might be seeing the first phases of a real resurgence of Chechen terrorism. I personally don't trust Kadyrov and his thugs one bit. But right now, there is no explanation for the 'Chechen terror' theory at all. Moreover, reports out of Moscow claim that the FSB is looking into contacts which the Chechens had with the Georgians (again!). If the Georgians are involved in any way at all, that would point straight to Langley, at least in my opinion.

Anway - I submit to you this hypothesis and I hope that you will share your views on that we me and the rest of us.

On a personal note: I am taking a week off and, barring some truly major event, I shall not post new pieces here until next Thursday. I will be reading comments though, and I will try to post (very short) replies if needed.

Please feel free to use the comments section as a free for all forum, and post anything you want. On my blog there is no such thing as 'off-topic' and you need not worry about that.

Kind regards and many thanks,

The Saker