Again, a big THANK YOU to sparling5 and friends for making this available to us!
The Saker
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Tuesday, May 6, 2014
Crucial investigation into the role of the junta in the Odessa massacre (MUST READ!)
Please find below the translation to the video I have posted before and which I am re-posting here below.
A huge THANK YOU to "sparling5" for making this translation in such a short time. If I get a subtitled video I will also post it here. This information is important enough to deserve several re-posts.
The Saker
Translated transcript:
There are lots of photos and videos of what was going on in the city on Friday and there are lots of details attracting special attention. Information to consider is quite enough for full investigation. It was taken by Pavel Ptshelkin.
At the very height of punitive action in the country when tensions in Russian-speaking Odessa reached the top level –there was a football match. “Metallist” from Harkov was playing with “”Chernomorets”, Odessa. Several thousand ultras of both teams came to the city. These fans are nationalists, proponents of Maidan and they get a permission to march along the streets of Odessa in support of united Ukrain. They gathered here, near Sobornaya Square. Meanwhile from Alexandrovsky Avenue towards them there moved a group of well-equipped young men armed with batons and reinforcement. Many of these wear “Georgian bands” but the main distinctive feature – all of them have a mark made of red scotch on the sleeve. The authorities called them pro-Russian militants but it seems somebody needed everybody to believe it. And lots of eyewitnesses made these very conclusions.
And here is the first strange thing and “mismatch” with junta’s official version. The same red marks were on the sleeves of some policemen. The most interesting thing is it was where these policemen stayed that the “break” of “separatists” to the members of the march happened.
Here we can see the red marks on the sleeves of the attackers and nearby – the same bands on the sleeves of the policemen in cordon. The number of attackers is much smaller than the members of the march and it’s obvious they are not going to disperse them. They haven’t got enough power. But it is that very place where the break happened and another small group separated. What for? Soon it became quite obvious. They seduced a crowd of fans and succeed. Here the members of the march crying:
Fifty people – that’s… that means we can get them from side-lane, there’s few of them…
The crowd changes the direction of movement and drives into Grecheskaya street. The main collisions happened over there. And here we can also see lots of strange things. The police chains part letting the attackers through and close down again. There are stones from both sides. Here we see a man with a red band on the sleeve – he starts firing from the roof. And it was here where the first people were killed. The guns were on both sides but here is a strange frame – the militant firing and a policeman is behind him. The bloggers recognized the deputy police head Dmitry Fuchedze. And here he is surrounded by those with red bands before the collision. And here he is walking with a group of those people to the place where the collisions with the members of the march happened.
And here - according to his chevron - an officer of Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs is obviously instructing the attackers with red bands.
“You should clearly understand what each unit is doing. They ran and ran. Where they ran? Look, every time there are some problems”
But it is much more difficult to believe in these pictures – here a man in a bullet-proof vest starts firing the members of the march straight from behind the policemen. And now it becomes quite clear – the main aim is to infuriate the crowd of fans and Maidan proponents.
Why? It became clear further when the attackers with red bands immediately left and a furious crowd aiming to Kulikovo Pole where the camp of protestors to current authorities is situated. These protestors were still there and for several months the authorities couldn’t afford to tackle with them. Naturally no people with red bands were in the camp. There on watch were some some dozens of activists. Trying to escape from the crowd they barricaded themselves in the building of Trade-unions.
And now some words about those in the crowd. Thousands of fans accustomed to street battles – according to the plan – were likely to become cannon fodder. According to the police staff there in the crowd were two battalions of police – “East” and “Storm” recently staffed with nationalists from Right Sector in civil clothes.
According to surprising coincidence just that very day in Odessa there appeared a former commandant of Maidam Andrei Parubiy. The police appeared here after an hour and the fire-brigade – after the police. That means there was a sign to make a pause. The leader is Parubiy. He was in Odessa yesterday and the day before yesterday. Everything was going on under his control.
And here is one more character. A man in a bullet-proof vest surrounded by clearly non-civil companions is falsely complaining to somebody about the attackers. He is clearly working for Ukrainian TV camera.
“They are armed, they are aggressively inclined, they have got pyrotechnics. My four guys are wounded and me too”.
He is clearly lying that he is not armed. Here he is near the flaming building of Trade-unions – he is firing not to let people seeking shelter in the building to climb out of the windows.
This man is called Micola and he is a leader of one of hundreds Maidan fighters. It has recently arrived in Odessa. It is well known that Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs later announced that people who died in that building fired themselves because it is impossible to throw a bottle to the third floor. This cynical statement is easily disapproved. Here is what one of the survived told in his blog:
Meanwhile there was a message the maidans are breaking through the other corridor… how did they happen to get there… I ran there and helped to block the door. In the corridor I met two girls – they tried to move an old iron safe. I helped them to move it to the door, blocking. While I moved it and blocked there came a white-green smoke from under the door... the air from my lungs was kicked out at once. One moment I thought I would choke…
In other words the Maidan fighters were also inside the building. Here they demonstrate the Ukrainian flag in the window followed by the crowd approval. And here are other pictures made some minutes later. You can see that in that very window at the 3d floor the fire starts. At that very moment the governor Vladimir Nemirovsky actually gives the fighter the licence for murder:
“The actions of Odessa inhabitants aimed at neutralization and detention of armed terrorists are considered to be valid”
As we have already told the majority of those who came to fire the building of Trade-unions were not from Odessa but inside the building they were all odessits. The fighters from Right Sector were the first to enter the building and they started at once to seek for the documents of the dead. Later the Ukrainian propagandists tried to lie stating the dead had Russian passports. These passports were in the Internet and the lie was easily destroyed – the same passports with the same family names appeared in a message on 16 April concerning alleged Russian diversionists.
April 2 in Odessa the people were burned alive and those who tried to escape were finished off with sticks. Besides as it appeared later among the dead there were lots of people with gunshot wounds. And moreover the police even didn’t think to interfere. All in all the facts lead to one conclusion. The reason of this tragedy in Odessa is a provocation in order to disperse and arrest the members of a numerous protests on the Kulikovo Pole against acting authorities. The fans were just used for this. On both sides there were skilful instigators. Considering all in all there was hardly anyone to plan the massacre but the crowd excited by the blood and impunity couldn’t stop.
A huge THANK YOU to "sparling5" for making this translation in such a short time. If I get a subtitled video I will also post it here. This information is important enough to deserve several re-posts.
The Saker
Translated transcript:
There are lots of photos and videos of what was going on in the city on Friday and there are lots of details attracting special attention. Information to consider is quite enough for full investigation. It was taken by Pavel Ptshelkin.
At the very height of punitive action in the country when tensions in Russian-speaking Odessa reached the top level –there was a football match. “Metallist” from Harkov was playing with “”Chernomorets”, Odessa. Several thousand ultras of both teams came to the city. These fans are nationalists, proponents of Maidan and they get a permission to march along the streets of Odessa in support of united Ukrain. They gathered here, near Sobornaya Square. Meanwhile from Alexandrovsky Avenue towards them there moved a group of well-equipped young men armed with batons and reinforcement. Many of these wear “Georgian bands” but the main distinctive feature – all of them have a mark made of red scotch on the sleeve. The authorities called them pro-Russian militants but it seems somebody needed everybody to believe it. And lots of eyewitnesses made these very conclusions.
And here is the first strange thing and “mismatch” with junta’s official version. The same red marks were on the sleeves of some policemen. The most interesting thing is it was where these policemen stayed that the “break” of “separatists” to the members of the march happened.
Here we can see the red marks on the sleeves of the attackers and nearby – the same bands on the sleeves of the policemen in cordon. The number of attackers is much smaller than the members of the march and it’s obvious they are not going to disperse them. They haven’t got enough power. But it is that very place where the break happened and another small group separated. What for? Soon it became quite obvious. They seduced a crowd of fans and succeed. Here the members of the march crying:
Fifty people – that’s… that means we can get them from side-lane, there’s few of them…
The crowd changes the direction of movement and drives into Grecheskaya street. The main collisions happened over there. And here we can also see lots of strange things. The police chains part letting the attackers through and close down again. There are stones from both sides. Here we see a man with a red band on the sleeve – he starts firing from the roof. And it was here where the first people were killed. The guns were on both sides but here is a strange frame – the militant firing and a policeman is behind him. The bloggers recognized the deputy police head Dmitry Fuchedze. And here he is surrounded by those with red bands before the collision. And here he is walking with a group of those people to the place where the collisions with the members of the march happened.
And here - according to his chevron - an officer of Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs is obviously instructing the attackers with red bands.
“You should clearly understand what each unit is doing. They ran and ran. Where they ran? Look, every time there are some problems”
But it is much more difficult to believe in these pictures – here a man in a bullet-proof vest starts firing the members of the march straight from behind the policemen. And now it becomes quite clear – the main aim is to infuriate the crowd of fans and Maidan proponents.
Why? It became clear further when the attackers with red bands immediately left and a furious crowd aiming to Kulikovo Pole where the camp of protestors to current authorities is situated. These protestors were still there and for several months the authorities couldn’t afford to tackle with them. Naturally no people with red bands were in the camp. There on watch were some some dozens of activists. Trying to escape from the crowd they barricaded themselves in the building of Trade-unions.
And now some words about those in the crowd. Thousands of fans accustomed to street battles – according to the plan – were likely to become cannon fodder. According to the police staff there in the crowd were two battalions of police – “East” and “Storm” recently staffed with nationalists from Right Sector in civil clothes.
According to surprising coincidence just that very day in Odessa there appeared a former commandant of Maidam Andrei Parubiy. The police appeared here after an hour and the fire-brigade – after the police. That means there was a sign to make a pause. The leader is Parubiy. He was in Odessa yesterday and the day before yesterday. Everything was going on under his control.
And here is one more character. A man in a bullet-proof vest surrounded by clearly non-civil companions is falsely complaining to somebody about the attackers. He is clearly working for Ukrainian TV camera.
“They are armed, they are aggressively inclined, they have got pyrotechnics. My four guys are wounded and me too”.
He is clearly lying that he is not armed. Here he is near the flaming building of Trade-unions – he is firing not to let people seeking shelter in the building to climb out of the windows.
This man is called Micola and he is a leader of one of hundreds Maidan fighters. It has recently arrived in Odessa. It is well known that Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs later announced that people who died in that building fired themselves because it is impossible to throw a bottle to the third floor. This cynical statement is easily disapproved. Here is what one of the survived told in his blog:
Meanwhile there was a message the maidans are breaking through the other corridor… how did they happen to get there… I ran there and helped to block the door. In the corridor I met two girls – they tried to move an old iron safe. I helped them to move it to the door, blocking. While I moved it and blocked there came a white-green smoke from under the door... the air from my lungs was kicked out at once. One moment I thought I would choke…
In other words the Maidan fighters were also inside the building. Here they demonstrate the Ukrainian flag in the window followed by the crowd approval. And here are other pictures made some minutes later. You can see that in that very window at the 3d floor the fire starts. At that very moment the governor Vladimir Nemirovsky actually gives the fighter the licence for murder:
“The actions of Odessa inhabitants aimed at neutralization and detention of armed terrorists are considered to be valid”
As we have already told the majority of those who came to fire the building of Trade-unions were not from Odessa but inside the building they were all odessits. The fighters from Right Sector were the first to enter the building and they started at once to seek for the documents of the dead. Later the Ukrainian propagandists tried to lie stating the dead had Russian passports. These passports were in the Internet and the lie was easily destroyed – the same passports with the same family names appeared in a message on 16 April concerning alleged Russian diversionists.
April 2 in Odessa the people were burned alive and those who tried to escape were finished off with sticks. Besides as it appeared later among the dead there were lots of people with gunshot wounds. And moreover the police even didn’t think to interfere. All in all the facts lead to one conclusion. The reason of this tragedy in Odessa is a provocation in order to disperse and arrest the members of a numerous protests on the Kulikovo Pole against acting authorities. The fans were just used for this. On both sides there were skilful instigators. Considering all in all there was hardly anyone to plan the massacre but the crowd excited by the blood and impunity couldn’t stop.
About Russian sites reported as malware and how to stay safe (and free!)
Dear friends,
Just a short note about the issue of (the very good) Взгляд.ру (URL: http://www.vz.ru) getting flagged as "malware attack site" or something similar, it could be due to a) something wrong with the site b) something wrong with an advertisement on the site c) political censorship. The point is this: this is a great opportunity for you all to drop Windows and/or Mac and switch to Linux (properly called "GNU/Linux"). For a list of options I recommend please see the "GNU/Linux distributions I recommend" box on the lower right of this page. Then, use a browser which has an "AdBlock" extension. FireFox and Chrome are the two I mostly use. FireFox also has extensions like "FlashBlock" and the "NoScripts Security Suite" which provide an additional level of security. The latter require a tad more IT knowledge to use.
The bottom line is this: if you are using Windows - you are constantly exposing yourself to a huge amount of very different risks; if you are using Mac, you are much better off, but you are grossly overpaying for your software and you are not safe from malware approved by Mac. The only solution is to use free software which, for most people, means Linux (though *BSD is an excellent solution for the tech-savvy).
Here are a few links for those of you interested in trying out the "free world":
Mind you - today I still got the stupid warning about vz.ru while using FireFox on a Linux computer, that will not disappear as it is OS-independent, but I could simply ignore that warning and waltz away happily to that "dangerous" site.
Which brings me to one small word of caution. There is what I call "corporate Linux" out there. Names like Ubuntu, RedHat and others. My advice - stay away from them and their products. However, products derived from them like Mint or Xubuntu are okay to use as long as they are piloted by a community, not a corporation. I would also recommend you stick to so-called APT-based distribution or "Debian derivatives", which is the case of all of the distros listed in the "GNU/Linux distributions I recommend" box.
That's it. Sorry for this techie-sidebar, but I wanted to remind you all that you don't have to put up with all this 'malware' nonsense and that you can enjoy both freedom and security on your computers.
Now back to the important business at hand.
Cheers,
The Saker
PS: I will not have the time to reply to any comments to this post (nevermind private emails!). I have to keep my priorities straight. Right now the priority #1 is the situation in the Ukraine, not IT discussions. Sorry.
Just a short note about the issue of (the very good) Взгляд.ру (URL: http://www.vz.ru) getting flagged as "malware attack site" or something similar, it could be due to a) something wrong with the site b) something wrong with an advertisement on the site c) political censorship. The point is this: this is a great opportunity for you all to drop Windows and/or Mac and switch to Linux (properly called "GNU/Linux"). For a list of options I recommend please see the "GNU/Linux distributions I recommend" box on the lower right of this page. Then, use a browser which has an "AdBlock" extension. FireFox and Chrome are the two I mostly use. FireFox also has extensions like "FlashBlock" and the "NoScripts Security Suite" which provide an additional level of security. The latter require a tad more IT knowledge to use.
The bottom line is this: if you are using Windows - you are constantly exposing yourself to a huge amount of very different risks; if you are using Mac, you are much better off, but you are grossly overpaying for your software and you are not safe from malware approved by Mac. The only solution is to use free software which, for most people, means Linux (though *BSD is an excellent solution for the tech-savvy).
Here are a few links for those of you interested in trying out the "free world":
- What is Free Software (must read)
- From Windows to Linux
- Linux is NOT Windows (must read)
- The table of equivalents / replacements / analogs of Windows software in Linux
- Linux Mint 15 User's Guide (for those who will begin with the Mint distribution - which I what I would suggest for most beginners)
- Xubuntu Documentation (for those who will begin with the Xubuntu distribution)
- Trisquel Documentation (for those who will begin with the Trisquel distribution)
Mind you - today I still got the stupid warning about vz.ru while using FireFox on a Linux computer, that will not disappear as it is OS-independent, but I could simply ignore that warning and waltz away happily to that "dangerous" site.
Which brings me to one small word of caution. There is what I call "corporate Linux" out there. Names like Ubuntu, RedHat and others. My advice - stay away from them and their products. However, products derived from them like Mint or Xubuntu are okay to use as long as they are piloted by a community, not a corporation. I would also recommend you stick to so-called APT-based distribution or "Debian derivatives", which is the case of all of the distros listed in the "GNU/Linux distributions I recommend" box.
That's it. Sorry for this techie-sidebar, but I wanted to remind you all that you don't have to put up with all this 'malware' nonsense and that you can enjoy both freedom and security on your computers.
Now back to the important business at hand.
Cheers,
The Saker
PS: I will not have the time to reply to any comments to this post (nevermind private emails!). I have to keep my priorities straight. Right now the priority #1 is the situation in the Ukraine, not IT discussions. Sorry.
Monday, May 5, 2014
Ukraine SITREP - May 5th, 17:37 UTC/Zulu: this time the junta means business
From the reports coming out of the eastern Ukraine it appears that a real, coordinated, attack has been launched on Slaviansk. The attackers use the following tactic: a group of men in plainclothes (Right Sector? Foreign mercenaries? SBU?) attack a checkpoint pinning down the defenders. The checkpoint is then surrounded on both sides by armored personnel carriers and heavily armed infantry. Mi-24 helicopters approach from the air and a heavy joint attack of all forces is launched. Assault-rifles, 23/30mm guns, unguided/guided rockets, anti-tank weapons, mortars, snipers and grenade-launchers are engaged. At this point the defenders have no other option but to try to withdraw under fire and the checkpoint is taken.
This time around the junta means business.
That is not to say that the defenders do not resist. At least one Mi-24 has been reported shot down by machine-gun fire over a river and the junta has confirmed 4 fatalities on its side (compared to 10 fatalities amongst the defenders).
I personally very much doubt that the defenders of Slaviansk had the time, manpower, expertise or equipment to adequately prepare the center of the town for a determined assault. The Chechens in Grozny had plenty of experienced combat engineer/sapper specialists, many months of preparation time and access to basically all the military equipment of a full Soviet army (left for them courtesy of the Eltsin-Grachev team) and that allowed them to turn downtown Grozny into a fortress. In contrast, there are very few well-trained specialists in Slaviansk, they have had almost no time to prepare, and most of their fortifications appear to be hastily improvised.
So far the number of civilians casualties appears to be limited, mainly because the checkpoints were established at the entrance of the city. But if the combats move in, the defenders will have to use the advantage offered by taller buildings for their defense at which point the attackers will have no other choice than to open fire upon large, residential buildings, possibly filled with civilians unable/unwilling to evacuate. Basements are also going to become a place to seek shelter for both armed defenders and civilians. In other words, the amount of civilians killed will very sharply rise of the attackers attempt to take control of downtown Slaviansk.
An increasing number of commentators are pointing to the upcoming May 9th as a crucial symbolic date at which something big could happen. I don't particularly like the notion of mixing symbols and the planning of military operations, but I have to say that in this case the commentators might be correct, if only because the offensive in the eastern Ukraine will reach some kind of breaking point in the next week or so.
Keep in mind that for all the courage of its defenders, Slaviansk is a rather small town, especially compared to cities like Donetsk or Lugansk which are a much tougher nut to crack not only because of their seize, but also because of the likely number of trained and well-equipped combatants. I cannot imagine that the Ukie commanders seriously think that they could repeat in Donetsk and/or Lugansk the same thing which took them so much time and efforts in Slaviansk. I can therefore only conclude that their real goal is to bait Russia into an intervention (for a discussion of the logic for such a move see here).
In the meantime, the propaganda war is heating up. In a rather clumsy attempt to explain the large amount of pro-Russian comments on various websites Business Insider has accused Putin of creating a Russian version of the notorious Israeli hasbara teams alleging that Putin is paying people to post pro-Russian propaganda in comments (can somebody please point out to the folks in the Kremlin the small "donation" button on the left of this page? So far, not a single Ruble or Hrivna has ever been donated to this blog. Not one). As for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it has published a White Paper on Human Rights violations in the Ukraine which you can download from here (in Russian) and from here (in English). However, since the Ministry of Foreign Affairs servers are notoriously slow, I have also made this document available for download here (in Russian) and here (in English).
Lastly, the situation in Odessa is simply surrealistic. Following yesterday's massacre not a single neo-Nazis has been arrested, not one, but many tens of pro-federation demonstrators have. Some of them have been freed when the prosecutors office was surrounded by an angry mob demanding their release. Now the big "scandal" is not, as you naively might have imagined, that it took a mob to release the victims of the neo-Nazi massacre, no, the "scandal" is that these victims were released at all. See, the authorities have charged them with "mass disturbances resulting in fatalities" and "murder" and they are now forming special "arrest teams" to hunt down and re-arrest all those whom the crowd had freed. Predictably, the official narrative about the events wobbles between the "Russian agents" and "terrorist separatists" explanation. More interesting is the fact that Avakov (the junta warlord in charge of internal security) has fired all the commanders of the Odessa police which, no doubt, will further endear the junta with what is left of the Ukrainian police forces). Needless to say, the neo-Nazi Right Sector organization has not been punished, nevermind banned, and tonight their are holding yet another Nazi-style torchlight parade.
Stay tuned, kind regards,
The Saker
This time around the junta means business.
That is not to say that the defenders do not resist. At least one Mi-24 has been reported shot down by machine-gun fire over a river and the junta has confirmed 4 fatalities on its side (compared to 10 fatalities amongst the defenders).
I personally very much doubt that the defenders of Slaviansk had the time, manpower, expertise or equipment to adequately prepare the center of the town for a determined assault. The Chechens in Grozny had plenty of experienced combat engineer/sapper specialists, many months of preparation time and access to basically all the military equipment of a full Soviet army (left for them courtesy of the Eltsin-Grachev team) and that allowed them to turn downtown Grozny into a fortress. In contrast, there are very few well-trained specialists in Slaviansk, they have had almost no time to prepare, and most of their fortifications appear to be hastily improvised.
So far the number of civilians casualties appears to be limited, mainly because the checkpoints were established at the entrance of the city. But if the combats move in, the defenders will have to use the advantage offered by taller buildings for their defense at which point the attackers will have no other choice than to open fire upon large, residential buildings, possibly filled with civilians unable/unwilling to evacuate. Basements are also going to become a place to seek shelter for both armed defenders and civilians. In other words, the amount of civilians killed will very sharply rise of the attackers attempt to take control of downtown Slaviansk.
An increasing number of commentators are pointing to the upcoming May 9th as a crucial symbolic date at which something big could happen. I don't particularly like the notion of mixing symbols and the planning of military operations, but I have to say that in this case the commentators might be correct, if only because the offensive in the eastern Ukraine will reach some kind of breaking point in the next week or so.
Keep in mind that for all the courage of its defenders, Slaviansk is a rather small town, especially compared to cities like Donetsk or Lugansk which are a much tougher nut to crack not only because of their seize, but also because of the likely number of trained and well-equipped combatants. I cannot imagine that the Ukie commanders seriously think that they could repeat in Donetsk and/or Lugansk the same thing which took them so much time and efforts in Slaviansk. I can therefore only conclude that their real goal is to bait Russia into an intervention (for a discussion of the logic for such a move see here).
In the meantime, the propaganda war is heating up. In a rather clumsy attempt to explain the large amount of pro-Russian comments on various websites Business Insider has accused Putin of creating a Russian version of the notorious Israeli hasbara teams alleging that Putin is paying people to post pro-Russian propaganda in comments (can somebody please point out to the folks in the Kremlin the small "donation" button on the left of this page? So far, not a single Ruble or Hrivna has ever been donated to this blog. Not one). As for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it has published a White Paper on Human Rights violations in the Ukraine which you can download from here (in Russian) and from here (in English). However, since the Ministry of Foreign Affairs servers are notoriously slow, I have also made this document available for download here (in Russian) and here (in English).
Lastly, the situation in Odessa is simply surrealistic. Following yesterday's massacre not a single neo-Nazis has been arrested, not one, but many tens of pro-federation demonstrators have. Some of them have been freed when the prosecutors office was surrounded by an angry mob demanding their release. Now the big "scandal" is not, as you naively might have imagined, that it took a mob to release the victims of the neo-Nazi massacre, no, the "scandal" is that these victims were released at all. See, the authorities have charged them with "mass disturbances resulting in fatalities" and "murder" and they are now forming special "arrest teams" to hunt down and re-arrest all those whom the crowd had freed. Predictably, the official narrative about the events wobbles between the "Russian agents" and "terrorist separatists" explanation. More interesting is the fact that Avakov (the junta warlord in charge of internal security) has fired all the commanders of the Odessa police which, no doubt, will further endear the junta with what is left of the Ukrainian police forces). Needless to say, the neo-Nazi Right Sector organization has not been punished, nevermind banned, and tonight their are holding yet another Nazi-style torchlight parade.
Stay tuned, kind regards,
The Saker
Powerful warning about how wars begin
Dear friends,
I want to share with you a very well-made video made in Moscow which a commentator has shared with me.
This video, entitled Recent Ukrainian History, the Southeast, begins with a quote attributed to Bismark: Even a victorious war is a calamity which has to be prevented by the wisdom of the people. The rest is self-explanatory and, I think, rather powerful.
Good night!
The Saker
I want to share with you a very well-made video made in Moscow which a commentator has shared with me.
This video, entitled Recent Ukrainian History, the Southeast, begins with a quote attributed to Bismark: Even a victorious war is a calamity which has to be prevented by the wisdom of the people. The rest is self-explanatory and, I think, rather powerful.
Good night!
The Saker
Sunday, May 4, 2014
Ukraine SITREP - May 4nd, 22:29 UTC/Zulu
The Ukrainian offensive against the population of the eastern Ukraine is large, but does not seem to yield any tangible results so far. Here is a map of the affected cities:
The worst situation appears to be in Kramatorsk were attacking force has fully surrounded the city and a number of elements have penetrated inside using secondary roads. It is hard to get a clear image of what is going on but my personal feeling is that the attackers are making a show of force and then they withdraw without really attempting to storm any key building or hunt down and destroy defending forces. I have to stress that the information coming out of the region is exceptionally sketchy and that it is impossible for me to get a better picture of what is going.
The cities not yet attacked by the Ukrainians are reportedly on full mobilization and are preparing for an attack.
The big story is, of course, the massacre in Odessa. There is evidence coming out that this was a very carefully orchestrated event with agent provocateurs infiltrated into both groups. For those of you who can understand Russian, here is an extremely interesting report about the "red-banded" infiltrators seen amongst the pro-Russian, pro-junta and even the police (I will try to have the audio translated as soon as possible and post it her):
That's it for now. Tomorrow should bring some clarity to these issues.
I will try to keep you posted. Stay tuned,
The Saker
The worst situation appears to be in Kramatorsk were attacking force has fully surrounded the city and a number of elements have penetrated inside using secondary roads. It is hard to get a clear image of what is going on but my personal feeling is that the attackers are making a show of force and then they withdraw without really attempting to storm any key building or hunt down and destroy defending forces. I have to stress that the information coming out of the region is exceptionally sketchy and that it is impossible for me to get a better picture of what is going.
The cities not yet attacked by the Ukrainians are reportedly on full mobilization and are preparing for an attack.
The big story is, of course, the massacre in Odessa. There is evidence coming out that this was a very carefully orchestrated event with agent provocateurs infiltrated into both groups. For those of you who can understand Russian, here is an extremely interesting report about the "red-banded" infiltrators seen amongst the pro-Russian, pro-junta and even the police (I will try to have the audio translated as soon as possible and post it her):
That's it for now. Tomorrow should bring some clarity to these issues.
I will try to keep you posted. Stay tuned,
The Saker
Short personal annoucement
Dear friends,
Two small points:
a) I am sick with a nasty stomach flu and I am spending most of my time in bed. I hope to get better by tomorrow. Until then, this affects my ability to reply to emails, moderate comments or write. I apologize for that.
b) I have done a poor job enforcing the rule that comments must be respectful. This has to change. So from now on, any comment which is disrespectful to any other person posting here or insulting to any nationality, ethnicity, culture or religion will be tossed in the trash bin. I apologize for having allowed many insulting comments to be posted here in the past week or more. This is an example of what from now on I will not allow:
Kind regards,
The Saker
Two small points:
a) I am sick with a nasty stomach flu and I am spending most of my time in bed. I hope to get better by tomorrow. Until then, this affects my ability to reply to emails, moderate comments or write. I apologize for that.
b) I have done a poor job enforcing the rule that comments must be respectful. This has to change. So from now on, any comment which is disrespectful to any other person posting here or insulting to any nationality, ethnicity, culture or religion will be tossed in the trash bin. I apologize for having allowed many insulting comments to be posted here in the past week or more. This is an example of what from now on I will not allow:
Ok priest/ Imam or whatever you think you are, it might be better for you to target a more vulnerable crest, an easier prey to digest, because I'm very willing, ready and able to engage the likes of you on my own terms. Don't they teach you con artists to avoid the real thing or risk exposure? I've noticed you preaching from your high perch in several posts here and I've held my fire too, but if you feel bold enough to try me, then by all means let's open that portal and settle this. Just remember, I don't play by your rules. P.S- With regards to your lord and his teachings on pigs and pearls, you better save those fairy tales for your sheep because I for one, never understood why such a silly and obvious advice would be considered "wise" by any one with an iota of common sense. Who in all of history, besides maybe your lord, would even contemplate feeding pearls to pigs? And why with all the worlds Ailments would the son of god waste his time amongst men giving advice no one needed or asked for. I doubt your lord ever even authored such an idiotic statement, you know like the tale of the sun standing still, so a few ignorant Jews could more efficiently murder and pillage their hapless victims, it is obvious that either Moses was ignorant of physics, or the scribe/ monk who pretended to be recording his thoughts was. Same principle applies here, some lying historian of a monk probably wrote his ideas on swine and pearls and presented it to the credulous sheep as heavenly wisdom. No wonder Putin is striving to keep his serfs under the thumb of the priesthood, keeps the serfs both holy and ignorant, which serves your purposes as well as his equally. You still care to school me priest?Finally, comments which contains sentences IN CAPS or which have no interest whatsoever will also be tossed to the trash bin.
Kind regards,
The Saker
Saturday, May 3, 2014
A small clarification to the previous SITREP
Some of you have understood my reference to Chechnia in the latest SITREP has an indication of the kind of tactics the Russian military would use if/when the Kremlin decides to intervene in the Ukraine.
That is not at all what I meant and I apologize for misleading you.
What I meant was to say that in extreme circumstances Putin was willing to use extreme measures. But let me reassure you all - the Donbass is not Chechnia, the Ukrainians are not Chechens and, most importantly, the Russian military of 2014 is not the Russian military of 1999. In fact, I can guarantee you that these tactics will not be used in the Ukraine. Such massive use of firepower is the sign of a weak military, once which does not trust the training of its own soldiers, one which has poor command, control and intelligence and one which uses the only thing it still has: a big fist. Such tactics are effective but crude and if the Russian military used them in the Ukraine it would result in a outraged explosion of protest in Russia.
Without going into details, what the Russians would do if they intervened in the Ukraine would be to disorganize Ukie communication and create a sense of chaos (for the Ukie command). By "going for the eyes" they would transform what is currently a more or less coherent Ukie attack force into many small and completely confused ones. Though that phase could include a few bomb/missile strikes or sabotage, most of it would be non-lethal. One the junta is blinded, the Russians would essentially engage the Ukie commanders in a "surrender or else" dialog. The vast majority will at this point gladly surrender. Those few who will chose "or else" will be destroyed in precision strikes. That's it. I do not expect WWII tank battles to take place. Cities like Dnepropetrovsk or Kharkov will not be turned into Grozny in 2000.
The Ukie military machine is extremely weak and all it will take is hitting a few well-chosen trigger points, and then it will collapse. Again, judging by Crimea and by what has happened so far in the Donbass, the vast majority of the Ukrainian officers will be *immensely relived* to be "defeated". By the way, the Russians went out of their way to treat the Ukrainian forces in Crimea with utmost respect - both those who did surrender and those who decided to hold out and be evacuated. Putin personally issued a decree not only to treat all the Ukrainian military personnel with professional courtesy but even to treat the *symbols* of Ukrainian statehood (flags, insignia, etc.) with utmost respect. The same will happen this time.
The Ukies made "prisoner" will be offered to join the Russian military, their pensions will quadruple overnight, their ranks and diplomas recognized and most will even be left in command of their own units.
I have to say that this idyllic situation will not apply to the neo-Nazis and assorted oligarch-paid thugs. Those will be killed, ruthlessly and with no mercy. Any Right Sector thug or foreign mercenary captured will get a 10min "conversation" somewhere behind an APC and then will be executed. But that will be a very small amount of cases about which we will probably never learn anyway.
I honestly don't know how far the Russian military intervention would go, it might well be confined to only the easternmost part of the Ukraine (where the current Ukrainian attack forces are concentrated). That really depends on the reaction in the West. If the US/NATO continue to refuse to negotiate the Russians might push further, but not beyond the Dniepr.
Remember the 08.08.08 war: its purpose was never to seize and hold land, it was to take Saakshvili's ulgy toys away. Once the Georgian military basically disappeared the Russians withdrew. The same will happen in the Ukraine. The Russian will destroy the repressive machine of the junta in Kiev and then stop.
Think *forces*, not territory.
Russia cannot and has no desire to "occupy" the Ukraine. All that talk about a new Afghanistan in the Ukraine is absolute nonsense. As soon as they are done, they will withdraw most of their forces and they will help the locals get organized. Only if the US/NATO do something truly fantastically stupid, like sending in NATO forces into the western Ukraine will the Russians establish a forward security buffer aimed at keeping the AngloZionists on the West side of the Dneipr. But - honestly - I don't see the US/NATO/EU trying that kind of crap, not because of the Russian military, but because that would mean that they would own all of the worst and poorest part of the rump-Ukraine.
Does anybody really think that the EU wants to own Banderastan?
I sure don't.
Okay, I hope that this clarification has been useful and I apologize again for giving the impression that the Russian military was prepared to use the same tactics as it did in Chechnia.
Kind regards,
The Saker
That is not at all what I meant and I apologize for misleading you.
What I meant was to say that in extreme circumstances Putin was willing to use extreme measures. But let me reassure you all - the Donbass is not Chechnia, the Ukrainians are not Chechens and, most importantly, the Russian military of 2014 is not the Russian military of 1999. In fact, I can guarantee you that these tactics will not be used in the Ukraine. Such massive use of firepower is the sign of a weak military, once which does not trust the training of its own soldiers, one which has poor command, control and intelligence and one which uses the only thing it still has: a big fist. Such tactics are effective but crude and if the Russian military used them in the Ukraine it would result in a outraged explosion of protest in Russia.
Without going into details, what the Russians would do if they intervened in the Ukraine would be to disorganize Ukie communication and create a sense of chaos (for the Ukie command). By "going for the eyes" they would transform what is currently a more or less coherent Ukie attack force into many small and completely confused ones. Though that phase could include a few bomb/missile strikes or sabotage, most of it would be non-lethal. One the junta is blinded, the Russians would essentially engage the Ukie commanders in a "surrender or else" dialog. The vast majority will at this point gladly surrender. Those few who will chose "or else" will be destroyed in precision strikes. That's it. I do not expect WWII tank battles to take place. Cities like Dnepropetrovsk or Kharkov will not be turned into Grozny in 2000.
The Ukie military machine is extremely weak and all it will take is hitting a few well-chosen trigger points, and then it will collapse. Again, judging by Crimea and by what has happened so far in the Donbass, the vast majority of the Ukrainian officers will be *immensely relived* to be "defeated". By the way, the Russians went out of their way to treat the Ukrainian forces in Crimea with utmost respect - both those who did surrender and those who decided to hold out and be evacuated. Putin personally issued a decree not only to treat all the Ukrainian military personnel with professional courtesy but even to treat the *symbols* of Ukrainian statehood (flags, insignia, etc.) with utmost respect. The same will happen this time.
The Ukies made "prisoner" will be offered to join the Russian military, their pensions will quadruple overnight, their ranks and diplomas recognized and most will even be left in command of their own units.
I have to say that this idyllic situation will not apply to the neo-Nazis and assorted oligarch-paid thugs. Those will be killed, ruthlessly and with no mercy. Any Right Sector thug or foreign mercenary captured will get a 10min "conversation" somewhere behind an APC and then will be executed. But that will be a very small amount of cases about which we will probably never learn anyway.
I honestly don't know how far the Russian military intervention would go, it might well be confined to only the easternmost part of the Ukraine (where the current Ukrainian attack forces are concentrated). That really depends on the reaction in the West. If the US/NATO continue to refuse to negotiate the Russians might push further, but not beyond the Dniepr.
Remember the 08.08.08 war: its purpose was never to seize and hold land, it was to take Saakshvili's ulgy toys away. Once the Georgian military basically disappeared the Russians withdrew. The same will happen in the Ukraine. The Russian will destroy the repressive machine of the junta in Kiev and then stop.
Think *forces*, not territory.
Russia cannot and has no desire to "occupy" the Ukraine. All that talk about a new Afghanistan in the Ukraine is absolute nonsense. As soon as they are done, they will withdraw most of their forces and they will help the locals get organized. Only if the US/NATO do something truly fantastically stupid, like sending in NATO forces into the western Ukraine will the Russians establish a forward security buffer aimed at keeping the AngloZionists on the West side of the Dneipr. But - honestly - I don't see the US/NATO/EU trying that kind of crap, not because of the Russian military, but because that would mean that they would own all of the worst and poorest part of the rump-Ukraine.
Does anybody really think that the EU wants to own Banderastan?
I sure don't.
Okay, I hope that this clarification has been useful and I apologize again for giving the impression that the Russian military was prepared to use the same tactics as it did in Chechnia.
Kind regards,
The Saker
Ukraine SITREP update - May 3nd, 16:20 UTC/Zulu: "the mysterious Russian soul?"
What happened in Odessa yesterday is much worse than what the initial reports had indicated: it was truly a deliberate and blood-curling massacre. To summarize:
In Odessa the pro-Russian demonstrators had never seized a building, all they did was erecting a small tent city and hanging out there. Hardly any violence had taken place. Yesterday, the neo-Nazis finally made their move:
1) They bussed in large numbers of Right Sector thugs.
2) They then got the local football hooligans (paid by oligarchs according to some reports) to begin a nationalist demonstration.
3) The Right Sector thugs then joined the hooligans and together they viciously attacked the pro-Russian tent city: the tents were torn down and the anti-regime demonstrators viciously beat up to a pulp. The local cops stood by and watched.
4) The anti-regime demonstrators ran literally for their lives towards the building of Unions which had been their normal rallying point at which point they were surrounded and the building set ablaze.
5) Those attempting to leave the building were severely beat up and many murdered. Many were shot while standing in the windows to flee from the flames.
6) The neo-Nazis did not let the firefighters through.
7) With each jumping demonstrator or each person shot in the windows the crowd would scream "Glory to the Ukraine! Glory to he heroes!" Many took souvenir videos. For them, this was a joyful, liberating event.
8) The Ukrainian social networks flooded with joyful messages congratulation the "heroes" in Odessa and promising more of the same to the accursed Moskals.
9) The Western and Ukie press reported the events as a "clash" with "casualties" but with no reference to any one party causing this massacre.
10) The last fatalities figure was at 46. But with many dying from smoke inhalation and, especially, burns, it will probably go up.
So what about Russia in all this?
I am amazed to see so many commentators posting messages here like "Russia has surrendered" or "Putin has caved in" or "Russia has made a deal". Truly, I wonder if there is some kind of "mysterious Russian soul" that is so hard to understand. Nora also asked a very interesting question. She wrote:
First and foremost, let's remember the not too distant past.
The very first thing Putin did when he came to power was to prosecute and win an amazingly violent and vicious war against the Chechen Wahabis. As I have mentioned many times here, a typical situation during that war was like this: a Russian commander would be met by a delegation of local "elders" who would assure him that their village was peaceful. The commander would reply "okay, we will not enter your village, but if a single shot comes out of it, we will wipe it off the face of the earth with artillery fire". And they did so. Every time. With artillery and multiple-rocket launcher fire. A huge number of civilians died because a village of 500 people would harbor 20 or 30 insurgents. And when the commanders of this operation were accused of war crimes (like General Shamanov) Putin not only stood by them, he gave many them the highest Russian decoration: Hero of Russia. Does that mean that Putin was a bloodthirsty genocidal maniac in 1999 and that in 2014 he turned into a pot-smoking peacenik singing "give peace a chance"?
Of course not.
In 1999 Russia had absolutely no other option left. None. The Wahabi insurgency had to be ruthlessly crushed or Russia would collapse. So if the numerous massacres (on both sides) in the First Chechen War were the result of gross incompetence and total indifference by the gang of Jewish oligarch in power under Eltsin, then the numerous massacres (mostly committed by the Russian military) in the Second Chechen War were carefully planned and systematically executed by the military high command with the full backing of the Kremlin.
I am not writing this to trash Putin or accuse him of being a war criminal. I am, like most Russians, absolutely convinced that Russia had no other choice. I even think that this willingness to deliver a massive amount of violence in specific circumstances saved a lot of lives, shortened the war and was actually met with a great deal of understanding by a lot of non-Wahabi Chechens. What Putin and Kadyrov (himself an ex-field commander and also a man with a reputation of ruthlessness, which he does not even deny) achieved in Chechnia is nothing short of a miracle and today Chechnia is a fantastic success story. But to make that possible, the Wahabis had to be quite literally eliminated, one by one, and all their sympathizers given a stark choice: desist or die. Do I really need to remind you all that Putin is the guy who, after a Chechen terrorist attack, publicly declared "we will hunt them down and kill them, and if they hide in a toilet, we will kill them there" (he used a slang term "mochits" which means to "off", "waste" or "whack" somebody).
Guys, never underestimate the potential of a person like Putin to mete out a huge amounts of ruthless violence if needed. So far all those who have done so have paid dearly.
So why does Russia stand by and do nothing?
Guys, when the Russians look across the border they see two groups they really really hate: Nazis and oligarchs. Them they would gladly kill with even more ruthless mass violence than the Chechen insurgents some of whom at least they respected as courageous combatants. But besides Nazis and oligarchs they also see their own fellow-Russians, who are in a bind, stuck between stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Did you guys see the footage of the Ukie army captain shot down by the pro-Russians over Slaviansk being rescued by the locals? Normally, captured Mi-24 pilots are not treated kindly as they fly a truly terrifying machine which even the Afghan guerrillas feared. In Syria today, these guys typically are tortured and then executed. In this case, I wish you could understand the audio, the pro-Russian militiamen were encouraging the guy by saying: "brother, no worries, we will get you to a hospital, hang in there captain, you still have a long life to live, don't let go, just a little longer and you will be fine". There was such an outpouring of compassion towards this men that it was absolutely amazing to see (if somebody could post a subtitled video of this footage that would be fantastic).
Now please understand that if/when Russian intervenes in the Ukraine there will be a lot of people killed. How many neo-Nazis or oligarchs to you think will be manning the Ukie Mi-24 which will be sent to try to stop the movement of Russian armor? How many oligarchs or neo-Nazis will be told to take off in old and poorly maintained SU-27 or MiG-29 to try to stop the Russian Air Force? Zero of course.
And if in Crimea there was not a single shot fired in anger, this will not be the case in the Donbass because it will be much harder to distinguish who is who. Think about it: you see a tank in your targeting scope. Say an old T-72, which you can easily smoke, but whose 125mm smoothbore shell still can kill you and your entire crew. Will you take the chance and try to talk to the other guy? What if his family is a de-facto hostage of the junta? What if he is simply terrified of your upgraded T-90 and shoots first?
The Russians know that most of the Ukrainian military is completely on their side. It is enough to look at the tense and embarrassed faces of the Ukrainian paratroopers which attacked the checkpoints around Slaviansk yesterday to see that they are going through a painful internal struggle.
The Russian military culture is profoundly averse to shooting on civilians or fellow Russians (and I mean "Russian" not ethnically, of course, but in a civilizational sense).
Furthermore, there are two ways to achieve deterrence: denial and punishment.
The first implies that you deny the other guy the means to achieve his goal. The second one means that you punish him if he acts.
Now, let me ask you: how does the Russian military deny the neo-Nazis in Odessa the ability to attack a tent city or burn people alive in a building? And if Russia cannot do that, then whom does Russia "punish" for that and how?
I promise you that if Russia had a magic death ray weapon which would only kill the Ukrainian neo-Nazis and oligarchs Putin would have used it a long time ago. But Putin is not Obama - he does not believe that such a magic death ray weapon (Obama calls it "drones") exists. Putin fully understands that if Russia moves in there will be a lot of innocent people killed, including pro-Russian Ukrainians, including decent anti-Russian civilians and, of course, Russian soldiers.
The outcome, however, is not in doubt. As I have said here many times, Russia can occupy all of the Ukraine if needed and there is nothing the US/NATO can do about that except protest, gesticulate, threaten, grandstand and increase global warming by a massive release of hot air.
There is no "mysterious Russian soul". Many in the West have a hard time understanding Putin because they are so used to completely irresponsible politicians who have been carefully selected by the West's "deep state" precisely for their lack of even basic decency, their knee jerk use of violence as the method of first resort and their eager willingness to reject any form of negotiations. What is mysterious is not the Russian soul but the West unique track record in meting out senseless violence over and over and over again and to hell with the consequences. That is the real mystery.
I also want to say this: up to the moment Putin ordered the "Polite Armed Men in Green" to take Crimea under control, the comments section was full of the very same comments accusing Putin, the Kremlin and Russia of selling out, of weakness or of surrender. Then, quite literally overnight, everybody went "WOW!" when the Crimean Peninsula was taken without a single fatality. Why are we repeating the same mistake today?
I promise you, Russia is ready to intervene in the Ukraine. To my immense sadness, I even suspect that it will. Clearly the US wants Russia to intervene to have a pretext for a new Cold War which would re-subordinate the EU to the US, prevent any Russia-EU rapprochement and give NATO a justification for its absurd existence. As for the freaks in power in Kiev (Timoshenko: "we have to execute these accursed Moskals with nuclear weapons") they have nothing to loose and they will obey any order coming from their western masters. The recent events in Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and Odessa can only be understood as a provocation to force Russia to intervene. Sadly, this technique might work and those who are now cheering for a Russian intervention might get their wish.
Personally, if Russia sends its military into the Ukraine I will not be rejoicing. I will be heartbroken (even if I will also be elated by the fact that all that neo-Nazi scum will finally have an opportunity to shows its worth in a fair battle agianst the acccursed Moskals).
I personally am deeply grateful to Putin and his outstanding government for not intervening so far and for waiting until the very last second, when there is really no other option left, before doing so. Frankly, my hope is that the Russian-speakers in the East and South of the Ukraine will find a way to secede from Banderastan without any overt Russian intervention. So far, I see no signs at all that the Ukies are winning this one. Yes, reports say that they have taken most of Kramatorsk today. So what? During the first Chechen War a hapless Russian armored brigade also "succeeded" in "taking" the center of Grozny. Then most of them got killed.
Guys - "taking" a city defended by a guerrilla force is always easy. Always. It's what comes after which is really hard. There is a darn good reason why, at least so far, the Ukie military always withdrew after it's initial "successes". These guys are not cowards, they are smart and a lot of them remember their training in the Soviet military. By the way, and this has not been reported in the English blogosphere, did you know that the folks manning the checkpoints around Slaviansk were ordered to withdraw soon after the first skirmishes with the attacking Ukies began. Why? Because a single burst of 30mm gunfire form the Ukie APCs would tear those so-called "checkpoints" into shred in just a few seconds. So what is the point of dying there? So the defenders pulled back, the attackers seized the checkpoint, declared victory, and promptly left. That is the real face of the pseudo-war taking place right now. Every military person there knows and understands that. It's just the moronic western press corps which just does not want to understand what is really happening in front of it's nose.
So here is my request to you all: let's stop both the pro-Russian warmongering on one hand, and the constant Russia-bashing for non-intervention on the other. It's not good enough to see some dramatic footage on the idiot-tube to jump to conclusions. We first must carefully look at the full picture, at all the issues at stake, try to understand both why this or that actor does something (especially if that something seems stupid or senseless) and then develop a hypothesis of what will happen if, say, Russia intervenes with its armed force. Or if it does not.
It is true that western politicians play poker (bluff) and monopoly (grab it all). These are all sort-term & immediate results games. The Russians (and the Chinese for that matter) play chess where you move slow, calculate each move way in advance, offer gambits, sacrifice pieces and there both the opening and the mid-game have the sole purpose of setting up the desired conditions for the end game. In chess you don't just smash a piece off your board to show how much of a man you are.
I want to conclude this by reminding you of three basic Russian sayings:
Россия не злится, она сосредотачивается.
(Russia does not get mad, she concentrates)
Русские долго запрягают, да быстро едут.
(Russians are slow to saddle-up, but they ride fast)
Eсли замахнулся - то бей.
(Once you swing, then you have to strike)
Maybe these are the keys to the "mysterious Russian soul"? ;-)
The Saker
In Odessa the pro-Russian demonstrators had never seized a building, all they did was erecting a small tent city and hanging out there. Hardly any violence had taken place. Yesterday, the neo-Nazis finally made their move:
1) They bussed in large numbers of Right Sector thugs.
2) They then got the local football hooligans (paid by oligarchs according to some reports) to begin a nationalist demonstration.
3) The Right Sector thugs then joined the hooligans and together they viciously attacked the pro-Russian tent city: the tents were torn down and the anti-regime demonstrators viciously beat up to a pulp. The local cops stood by and watched.
4) The anti-regime demonstrators ran literally for their lives towards the building of Unions which had been their normal rallying point at which point they were surrounded and the building set ablaze.
5) Those attempting to leave the building were severely beat up and many murdered. Many were shot while standing in the windows to flee from the flames.
6) The neo-Nazis did not let the firefighters through.
7) With each jumping demonstrator or each person shot in the windows the crowd would scream "Glory to the Ukraine! Glory to he heroes!" Many took souvenir videos. For them, this was a joyful, liberating event.
8) The Ukrainian social networks flooded with joyful messages congratulation the "heroes" in Odessa and promising more of the same to the accursed Moskals.
9) The Western and Ukie press reported the events as a "clash" with "casualties" but with no reference to any one party causing this massacre.
10) The last fatalities figure was at 46. But with many dying from smoke inhalation and, especially, burns, it will probably go up.
So what about Russia in all this?
I am amazed to see so many commentators posting messages here like "Russia has surrendered" or "Putin has caved in" or "Russia has made a deal". Truly, I wonder if there is some kind of "mysterious Russian soul" that is so hard to understand. Nora also asked a very interesting question. She wrote:
Saker, am I wrong about this or is Putin's reluctance based in large part on a profound cultural and historical lack of blood-lust? I mean, we certainly have no compunction Just Plain Destroying... women, children, cultures, societies: really, that's just what we do, at home and abroad. But apart from Kiev being holy as the beginning of both Russia and her Orthodox faith and wondering how any Orthodox Russian could attack it despite it being perhaps the prime military target, I am so struck by the great desire of the people, all over Ukraine really, not to kill their own. I sure don't see that here -- even the militia types supporting Bundy are now at each other's throats. I'm not being very articulate here and don't really know how to take this observation, if it is real, to the next step because I just bump into this wall of "How does morality fight immorality without losing in this life?So let me try to make sense of all this.
First and foremost, let's remember the not too distant past.
The very first thing Putin did when he came to power was to prosecute and win an amazingly violent and vicious war against the Chechen Wahabis. As I have mentioned many times here, a typical situation during that war was like this: a Russian commander would be met by a delegation of local "elders" who would assure him that their village was peaceful. The commander would reply "okay, we will not enter your village, but if a single shot comes out of it, we will wipe it off the face of the earth with artillery fire". And they did so. Every time. With artillery and multiple-rocket launcher fire. A huge number of civilians died because a village of 500 people would harbor 20 or 30 insurgents. And when the commanders of this operation were accused of war crimes (like General Shamanov) Putin not only stood by them, he gave many them the highest Russian decoration: Hero of Russia. Does that mean that Putin was a bloodthirsty genocidal maniac in 1999 and that in 2014 he turned into a pot-smoking peacenik singing "give peace a chance"?
Of course not.
In 1999 Russia had absolutely no other option left. None. The Wahabi insurgency had to be ruthlessly crushed or Russia would collapse. So if the numerous massacres (on both sides) in the First Chechen War were the result of gross incompetence and total indifference by the gang of Jewish oligarch in power under Eltsin, then the numerous massacres (mostly committed by the Russian military) in the Second Chechen War were carefully planned and systematically executed by the military high command with the full backing of the Kremlin.
I am not writing this to trash Putin or accuse him of being a war criminal. I am, like most Russians, absolutely convinced that Russia had no other choice. I even think that this willingness to deliver a massive amount of violence in specific circumstances saved a lot of lives, shortened the war and was actually met with a great deal of understanding by a lot of non-Wahabi Chechens. What Putin and Kadyrov (himself an ex-field commander and also a man with a reputation of ruthlessness, which he does not even deny) achieved in Chechnia is nothing short of a miracle and today Chechnia is a fantastic success story. But to make that possible, the Wahabis had to be quite literally eliminated, one by one, and all their sympathizers given a stark choice: desist or die. Do I really need to remind you all that Putin is the guy who, after a Chechen terrorist attack, publicly declared "we will hunt them down and kill them, and if they hide in a toilet, we will kill them there" (he used a slang term "mochits" which means to "off", "waste" or "whack" somebody).
Guys, never underestimate the potential of a person like Putin to mete out a huge amounts of ruthless violence if needed. So far all those who have done so have paid dearly.
So why does Russia stand by and do nothing?
Guys, when the Russians look across the border they see two groups they really really hate: Nazis and oligarchs. Them they would gladly kill with even more ruthless mass violence than the Chechen insurgents some of whom at least they respected as courageous combatants. But besides Nazis and oligarchs they also see their own fellow-Russians, who are in a bind, stuck between stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Did you guys see the footage of the Ukie army captain shot down by the pro-Russians over Slaviansk being rescued by the locals? Normally, captured Mi-24 pilots are not treated kindly as they fly a truly terrifying machine which even the Afghan guerrillas feared. In Syria today, these guys typically are tortured and then executed. In this case, I wish you could understand the audio, the pro-Russian militiamen were encouraging the guy by saying: "brother, no worries, we will get you to a hospital, hang in there captain, you still have a long life to live, don't let go, just a little longer and you will be fine". There was such an outpouring of compassion towards this men that it was absolutely amazing to see (if somebody could post a subtitled video of this footage that would be fantastic).
Now please understand that if/when Russian intervenes in the Ukraine there will be a lot of people killed. How many neo-Nazis or oligarchs to you think will be manning the Ukie Mi-24 which will be sent to try to stop the movement of Russian armor? How many oligarchs or neo-Nazis will be told to take off in old and poorly maintained SU-27 or MiG-29 to try to stop the Russian Air Force? Zero of course.
And if in Crimea there was not a single shot fired in anger, this will not be the case in the Donbass because it will be much harder to distinguish who is who. Think about it: you see a tank in your targeting scope. Say an old T-72, which you can easily smoke, but whose 125mm smoothbore shell still can kill you and your entire crew. Will you take the chance and try to talk to the other guy? What if his family is a de-facto hostage of the junta? What if he is simply terrified of your upgraded T-90 and shoots first?
The Russians know that most of the Ukrainian military is completely on their side. It is enough to look at the tense and embarrassed faces of the Ukrainian paratroopers which attacked the checkpoints around Slaviansk yesterday to see that they are going through a painful internal struggle.
The Russian military culture is profoundly averse to shooting on civilians or fellow Russians (and I mean "Russian" not ethnically, of course, but in a civilizational sense).
Furthermore, there are two ways to achieve deterrence: denial and punishment.
The first implies that you deny the other guy the means to achieve his goal. The second one means that you punish him if he acts.
Now, let me ask you: how does the Russian military deny the neo-Nazis in Odessa the ability to attack a tent city or burn people alive in a building? And if Russia cannot do that, then whom does Russia "punish" for that and how?
I promise you that if Russia had a magic death ray weapon which would only kill the Ukrainian neo-Nazis and oligarchs Putin would have used it a long time ago. But Putin is not Obama - he does not believe that such a magic death ray weapon (Obama calls it "drones") exists. Putin fully understands that if Russia moves in there will be a lot of innocent people killed, including pro-Russian Ukrainians, including decent anti-Russian civilians and, of course, Russian soldiers.
The outcome, however, is not in doubt. As I have said here many times, Russia can occupy all of the Ukraine if needed and there is nothing the US/NATO can do about that except protest, gesticulate, threaten, grandstand and increase global warming by a massive release of hot air.
There is no "mysterious Russian soul". Many in the West have a hard time understanding Putin because they are so used to completely irresponsible politicians who have been carefully selected by the West's "deep state" precisely for their lack of even basic decency, their knee jerk use of violence as the method of first resort and their eager willingness to reject any form of negotiations. What is mysterious is not the Russian soul but the West unique track record in meting out senseless violence over and over and over again and to hell with the consequences. That is the real mystery.
I also want to say this: up to the moment Putin ordered the "Polite Armed Men in Green" to take Crimea under control, the comments section was full of the very same comments accusing Putin, the Kremlin and Russia of selling out, of weakness or of surrender. Then, quite literally overnight, everybody went "WOW!" when the Crimean Peninsula was taken without a single fatality. Why are we repeating the same mistake today?
I promise you, Russia is ready to intervene in the Ukraine. To my immense sadness, I even suspect that it will. Clearly the US wants Russia to intervene to have a pretext for a new Cold War which would re-subordinate the EU to the US, prevent any Russia-EU rapprochement and give NATO a justification for its absurd existence. As for the freaks in power in Kiev (Timoshenko: "we have to execute these accursed Moskals with nuclear weapons") they have nothing to loose and they will obey any order coming from their western masters. The recent events in Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and Odessa can only be understood as a provocation to force Russia to intervene. Sadly, this technique might work and those who are now cheering for a Russian intervention might get their wish.
Personally, if Russia sends its military into the Ukraine I will not be rejoicing. I will be heartbroken (even if I will also be elated by the fact that all that neo-Nazi scum will finally have an opportunity to shows its worth in a fair battle agianst the acccursed Moskals).
I personally am deeply grateful to Putin and his outstanding government for not intervening so far and for waiting until the very last second, when there is really no other option left, before doing so. Frankly, my hope is that the Russian-speakers in the East and South of the Ukraine will find a way to secede from Banderastan without any overt Russian intervention. So far, I see no signs at all that the Ukies are winning this one. Yes, reports say that they have taken most of Kramatorsk today. So what? During the first Chechen War a hapless Russian armored brigade also "succeeded" in "taking" the center of Grozny. Then most of them got killed.
Guys - "taking" a city defended by a guerrilla force is always easy. Always. It's what comes after which is really hard. There is a darn good reason why, at least so far, the Ukie military always withdrew after it's initial "successes". These guys are not cowards, they are smart and a lot of them remember their training in the Soviet military. By the way, and this has not been reported in the English blogosphere, did you know that the folks manning the checkpoints around Slaviansk were ordered to withdraw soon after the first skirmishes with the attacking Ukies began. Why? Because a single burst of 30mm gunfire form the Ukie APCs would tear those so-called "checkpoints" into shred in just a few seconds. So what is the point of dying there? So the defenders pulled back, the attackers seized the checkpoint, declared victory, and promptly left. That is the real face of the pseudo-war taking place right now. Every military person there knows and understands that. It's just the moronic western press corps which just does not want to understand what is really happening in front of it's nose.
So here is my request to you all: let's stop both the pro-Russian warmongering on one hand, and the constant Russia-bashing for non-intervention on the other. It's not good enough to see some dramatic footage on the idiot-tube to jump to conclusions. We first must carefully look at the full picture, at all the issues at stake, try to understand both why this or that actor does something (especially if that something seems stupid or senseless) and then develop a hypothesis of what will happen if, say, Russia intervenes with its armed force. Or if it does not.
It is true that western politicians play poker (bluff) and monopoly (grab it all). These are all sort-term & immediate results games. The Russians (and the Chinese for that matter) play chess where you move slow, calculate each move way in advance, offer gambits, sacrifice pieces and there both the opening and the mid-game have the sole purpose of setting up the desired conditions for the end game. In chess you don't just smash a piece off your board to show how much of a man you are.
I want to conclude this by reminding you of three basic Russian sayings:
Россия не злится, она сосредотачивается.
(Russia does not get mad, she concentrates)
Русские долго запрягают, да быстро едут.
(Russians are slow to saddle-up, but they ride fast)
Eсли замахнулся - то бей.
(Once you swing, then you have to strike)
Maybe these are the keys to the "mysterious Russian soul"? ;-)
The Saker
Friday, May 2, 2014
Ukraine SITREP update - May 2nd, 20:14 UTC/Zulu: massacre in Odessa
It appears that a massacre did take place today, but not in Slaviansk, but in Odessa were 38 people died when a building in which they had sought refuge was set ablaze. Here is what RT reports:
Also, and with some reluctance, I want to inform you about one interesting but unverified source (caveat emptor!): there is a Spanish speaking air traffic controller in Kiev who regularly tweets info about the events in the Ukraine here: https://twitter.com/spainbuca.
Now I personally never use Twitter (or Facebook), but a reader has called my attention to this guys who seems to have some pretty good information. According to him, some "military in Kiev" had requested the help of Russia, after which some Russian cargo plane has flown near Donetsk. According to him, radio intercepts indicate Russian paratroopers. The aircraft then turned around. What that a para drop? Finally, he reports that Ukrainian military aircraft have been challenged by Russian interceptors and have had to withdraw. Now, since all this is based on radio communication it could be fake or just somebody trying to create a panic. But for those of you who understand Spanish I wanted to pass you the info so you call follow this directly on Twitter.
Whether Russia moves troops in now or not, my sense is that this massacre in Odessa will have serious consequences as the Russians will not ignore it.
I will try to keep you posted as best I can,
The Saker
At least 38 anti-government activists died in fire at Odessa’s Trade Unions House after suffocating with smoke or jumping out of windows of the burning building, Ukrainian Interior Ministry reported. The building was set ablaze by the pro-Kiev radicals. Some 50 people, including 10 police officers, were also injured in the incident, the official statement said. It was not immediately clear whether those injured in Friday street clashes in Odessa were included in those numbers. According to the ministry, the Friday standoff on Odessa included “anti-Maidan” activists on one side and “football fans” from Odessa and Kharkov, as well as "euro-Maidan" activists, on the other. A criminal case on the charges of mass unrest has been opened. The Trade Unions House was set on fire by pro-Kiev radicals after they surrounded and destroyed the tent camp of anti-government activists that stood in front of the building on Odessa’s Kulikovo Field Square. It was torched in a storming attempt after some of the anti-Maidan activists rallying in the square barricaded themselves inside the building. Thirty of the victims were found on the floors of the building having apparently suffocated to death with smoke. Eight more died after jumping out of the burning Trade Union House’s windows, according to police. Earlier reports of the clashes in Odessa said that both sides used Molotov cocktails and, allegedly, gunfire.While the exact circumstances of this tragedy are unclear, it appears that we are dealing with the massacre of pro-Russian activists by nationalist thugs (aka "football hooligans"). As I mentioned earlier, a Russian intervention in Odessa is far more likely than in the Donbass which seems capable of protecting itself without Russian assistance.
Also, and with some reluctance, I want to inform you about one interesting but unverified source (caveat emptor!): there is a Spanish speaking air traffic controller in Kiev who regularly tweets info about the events in the Ukraine here: https://twitter.com/spainbuca.
Now I personally never use Twitter (or Facebook), but a reader has called my attention to this guys who seems to have some pretty good information. According to him, some "military in Kiev" had requested the help of Russia, after which some Russian cargo plane has flown near Donetsk. According to him, radio intercepts indicate Russian paratroopers. The aircraft then turned around. What that a para drop? Finally, he reports that Ukrainian military aircraft have been challenged by Russian interceptors and have had to withdraw. Now, since all this is based on radio communication it could be fake or just somebody trying to create a panic. But for those of you who understand Spanish I wanted to pass you the info so you call follow this directly on Twitter.
Whether Russia moves troops in now or not, my sense is that this massacre in Odessa will have serious consequences as the Russians will not ignore it.
I will try to keep you posted as best I can,
The Saker
Ukraine SITREP May 2nd, 17:37 UTC/Zulu: "The Mouse that Roared"
Today's events in the Ukraine have seen both a dramatic escalation and yet another complete flop. Let's restate here the fact which are not in dispute by any part
Q: What are the "checkpoints" which were seized today?
A: These are makeshift checkpoint made of tires, wood, metal bars, stones, some concrete blocks, etc. They are defended by a ragtag mix of younger men with assault or hunting rifles, some civilians armed with bars, sticks, rods, and a motley assortment of men and women of different ages just standing around to "help if needed". Normally, a single APC could easily just drive through such a "checkpoint". I suppose that hidden form view there might be some snipers and possibly some guys with anti-tanks weapons, but today they were neither seen nor heard.
Q: So where are the most combat capable defense forces?
A: Further inside the city
Q: Who were the attacking forces?
A: Though there have been plenty of rumors about the Right Sector or the newly created National Guard, all the footage seems to show only regular army units which told that they were sent to defend the population against terrorists.
Q: Did any of the attacking forces penetrate inside Slaviansk?
A: Maybe. There was some sporadic gunfire in various parts of downtown Slaviansk, and there are rumors of diversionary units infiltrated inside the city. If they are there, they have so far achieved exactly nothing
Q: So what has this first day of the "major" anti-terrorist operation achieved exactly?
A: Nothing.
Q: What about the helicopters shot down?
A: Some rumors claim that they were shot down by portable air-defense missiles, other speak of anti-tank weapons. Either way, the net effect of these losses will be to make the Ukie pilots even more nervous and reluctant to fly combat missions.
Q: What were these helicopters doing anyway?
A: One was an armed transport Mi-8 while the other was an attack Mi-24. There is footage showing a Mi-24 using firing his rockets at an unknown target.
Q: What role is the Ukie military playing in this conflict?
A: A very minor one. As I wrote yesterday, the military is either unwilling (probably both) or unable to conduct a serious military operation. Whether any other force (Right Sector, National Guard, SBU, US mercenaries, etc.) can do much better is dubious at best, but we should assume that they can just as a working hypothesis, even if so far nothing corroborates it.
Q: What about Russia, should it intervene?
A: Absolutely not. For one thing, so far, the grand offensive just seized a few poorly defended checkpoints. IF tomorrow there is an attack beyond these checkpoints inside the city of Slaviansk itself and IF that attack is successful, then maybe it will be correct time to consider a military action. So far, all the signs are that the locals can beat back the attacker without direct Russian intervention and that would be much better for all parties involved.
Q: What about the massacre of civilians?
What massacre? Only one person died today, and that was outside the city near a checkpoint. There were no massacres so far. Nor was any artillery fire reported. Not a single confirmed tank shot either. It makes no sense whatsoever for the Russians to intervene under these conditions.
Q: Is Russia not sending a message of weakness?
Only to ignorant reporters. Military folks on all sides know that Russian can liberate the entire Donbass literally overnight very few, if any, losses. From a purely military point of view, the liberation of Crimea was a far more complex operation than a liberation of the Donbass would. The Kremlin does not need to make threats to be credible. It just needs to act if and when it decides to, and not in haste or to "look tough" (let the US/NATO engage in that kind of childish PR).
Q: So nothing of importance happened in the Ukraine?
Oh no, something very important did happen, but not in Slaviansk, but in Odessa. There have been some rather violent clashes between pro-Russian and pro-junta demonstrators in Odessa which could lead to the end of the relative peace so far in that city. If the lid blows off and the confrontation becomes overt then this could create an extremely volatile situation in Odessa which is truly vital to the junta in power. The city is a complex mix of ethnicities, closer in ethnic diversity to Crimea than to Donetsk.
I hope that this Q&A format is helpful to clarify this situation. Either way, please let me know.
I will be monitoring the situation as best I can and I will inform you of any important developments. I urge you all not to come to any conclusions based on rumors as today, again, we have seen a vast over-reaction of the media (on all sides) to what has been mostly a non-event: the junta's mouse roared - that's about it.
Kind regards to all,
The Saker
- The Ukrainian junta has launched what it calls a major counter-terrorist operation against the city of Slaviansk.
- Combat helicopters were used.
- Armored personnel carriers were used.
- A number of checkpoints have been taken over by the attacking force.
- Two (possibly three) combat helicopters were shot down.
- The attacking side reports two fatalities on their side and one amongst the pro-Russian insurgency. The pro-Russian insurgents confirmed these figures.
Q: What are the "checkpoints" which were seized today?
A: These are makeshift checkpoint made of tires, wood, metal bars, stones, some concrete blocks, etc. They are defended by a ragtag mix of younger men with assault or hunting rifles, some civilians armed with bars, sticks, rods, and a motley assortment of men and women of different ages just standing around to "help if needed". Normally, a single APC could easily just drive through such a "checkpoint". I suppose that hidden form view there might be some snipers and possibly some guys with anti-tanks weapons, but today they were neither seen nor heard.
Q: So where are the most combat capable defense forces?
A: Further inside the city
Q: Who were the attacking forces?
A: Though there have been plenty of rumors about the Right Sector or the newly created National Guard, all the footage seems to show only regular army units which told that they were sent to defend the population against terrorists.
Q: Did any of the attacking forces penetrate inside Slaviansk?
A: Maybe. There was some sporadic gunfire in various parts of downtown Slaviansk, and there are rumors of diversionary units infiltrated inside the city. If they are there, they have so far achieved exactly nothing
Q: So what has this first day of the "major" anti-terrorist operation achieved exactly?
A: Nothing.
Q: What about the helicopters shot down?
A: Some rumors claim that they were shot down by portable air-defense missiles, other speak of anti-tank weapons. Either way, the net effect of these losses will be to make the Ukie pilots even more nervous and reluctant to fly combat missions.
Q: What were these helicopters doing anyway?
A: One was an armed transport Mi-8 while the other was an attack Mi-24. There is footage showing a Mi-24 using firing his rockets at an unknown target.
Q: What role is the Ukie military playing in this conflict?
A: A very minor one. As I wrote yesterday, the military is either unwilling (probably both) or unable to conduct a serious military operation. Whether any other force (Right Sector, National Guard, SBU, US mercenaries, etc.) can do much better is dubious at best, but we should assume that they can just as a working hypothesis, even if so far nothing corroborates it.
Q: What about Russia, should it intervene?
A: Absolutely not. For one thing, so far, the grand offensive just seized a few poorly defended checkpoints. IF tomorrow there is an attack beyond these checkpoints inside the city of Slaviansk itself and IF that attack is successful, then maybe it will be correct time to consider a military action. So far, all the signs are that the locals can beat back the attacker without direct Russian intervention and that would be much better for all parties involved.
Q: What about the massacre of civilians?
What massacre? Only one person died today, and that was outside the city near a checkpoint. There were no massacres so far. Nor was any artillery fire reported. Not a single confirmed tank shot either. It makes no sense whatsoever for the Russians to intervene under these conditions.
Q: Is Russia not sending a message of weakness?
Only to ignorant reporters. Military folks on all sides know that Russian can liberate the entire Donbass literally overnight very few, if any, losses. From a purely military point of view, the liberation of Crimea was a far more complex operation than a liberation of the Donbass would. The Kremlin does not need to make threats to be credible. It just needs to act if and when it decides to, and not in haste or to "look tough" (let the US/NATO engage in that kind of childish PR).
Q: So nothing of importance happened in the Ukraine?
Oh no, something very important did happen, but not in Slaviansk, but in Odessa. There have been some rather violent clashes between pro-Russian and pro-junta demonstrators in Odessa which could lead to the end of the relative peace so far in that city. If the lid blows off and the confrontation becomes overt then this could create an extremely volatile situation in Odessa which is truly vital to the junta in power. The city is a complex mix of ethnicities, closer in ethnic diversity to Crimea than to Donetsk.
I hope that this Q&A format is helpful to clarify this situation. Either way, please let me know.
I will be monitoring the situation as best I can and I will inform you of any important developments. I urge you all not to come to any conclusions based on rumors as today, again, we have seen a vast over-reaction of the media (on all sides) to what has been mostly a non-event: the junta's mouse roared - that's about it.
Kind regards to all,
The Saker
Thursday, May 1, 2014
Yet another totally crazy idea from Banderastan
Every passing day bring it share of utterly nonsensical news out of the rump-Ukraine aka "Banderastan". Today is not exception, see for yourself this headlines from the BBC's website:
Sure enough, for the zombified TV watchers this might sound like something meaningful. But is it? Let's recall where the current Ukrainian military comes form by remembering what the Ukraine's military was at the moment this Soviet Republic became independent.
I have long destroyed my old archives and I simply did not want to scout the Internet for hours to find out what the Ukraine had inherited from the USSR. I knew that the Ukies had inherited what was called the "2nd strategic echelon" which translates into "not the newest weapons systems, but a lot of them". And today, I suddenly came across an interesting article in the Russian press which gave me exactly what I wanted: a description of what the armed forces of the independent Ukraine began with. As it turns out, the Ukraine had:
700,000 servicemen
14 motorized rifle divisions.
4 tank divisions
3 artillery divisions
8 artillery brigades
4 Spetsnaz brigades
2 airborne brigade
7 attack helicopters regiments
3 air armies (about 1100 combat aircraft)
1 independent Air Defense Army
Not bad eh?
Today there are all sorts of figures thrown around about how big the Ukrainian military is, anywhere from several tens of thousands to a few hundred. It really all depends on what you count and how you count. We should stay clear from this kind of bean count and simply state the Ukrainian military is both unwilling and/or unable to crush a rebellion composed only of a few hundred armed men backed by a few thousand unarmed civilians (I am talking about the folks actually manning barricades and occupying buildings, not about sympathizers). In other words, the pro-Russian insurgency in the eastern Ukraine could be defeated with just one battalion of airborne troops. And yet, the regime cannot even muster that much.
Why?
There are two reasons. The first one is that there is a stream of consistent and mutually corroborating reports on the Runet (Russian Internet) which says that the pro-Russian insurgents and the Ukrainian servicemen simply do not want to shoot at each other, even when given the order to do so. Furthermore, they appear to be in regular contact with each other and there is an informal understanding that neither side will fire at the other.
The other reason is, of course, 22 years of "democracy". Keep in mind that only 9 years of democracy almost destroyed Russia which by 1998-9 was pretty close to a total collapse. Several factors contributed to avoid this outcome, first and foremost the nomination of Putin, but Russia came very, very close to simply disappearing as a unitary state. If democracy could do that to a giant like Russia in only 8-9 years, one can only imagine what it could do to a much smaller and weaker Ukraine over 22 years.
Keep in mind that if the military was simply neglected and abandoned, then the rest of the economy pro-actively pillaged by the oligarchs. Think Berezovsky, think Khodorkovsky, then multiply them by 10 or 20 and increase their period of malfeasance from 9 years to 22 years and it is outright amazing that there still is a little something left of the Ukrainian economy in 2014. True, most of that is located in the East and was kept on life support by Russian money. Still, I have to say that while I am most definitely not an admirer of the Soviet system, the fact that it took so long to truly obliterate the Ukraine is a testimony to the resilience and what I would call a "capital of momentum" left by the Soviet Union to its successor states. Even Russia survived the absolute horror of the 1990s only thanks to all the "momentum" it inherited from the USSR.
No wonder that so many people today are becoming nostalgic of the Soviet era - by a strange self-protection mechanism the human being remembers the good much better than the bad (anybody who has gone through bootcamp will attest to that). And it is undeniable that compared to the empty promises, and actual horrors, of democracy the Soviet system was much, much better.
What is clear now is that the Ukraine has eventually wasted all of what it had been given by the Soviet Union. There is no more momentum left. The Ukraine is at a full stop, and it is rapidly disintegrating.
So what about this idea of return to a conscript military?
It is, to put it mildly, of truly breathtaking stupidity. There is no other way of putting it.
First, and this might sound paradoxical, the Ukraine simply does not need a military at all, if only because it cannot afford one. In fact, a country is MUCH safer not having a military than having a useless one because the latter can always be used to justify an attack whereas a country without a military is extremely hard to attack, at least in political terms.
Then, it takes decades and huge sums of money to (re-)built a military. The Ukraine simply cannot afford that at all, so why bother?
Also, the military is not the correct tool to use to put down insurgents, not the Russian speakers in the East, not the Banderists in the West. That is a mission for Internal Troops which have a totally different training and equipment than the regular military. In other words, what the Ukraine needs first and foremost today are forces like the Berkut which the junta has destroyed.
Then consider the economy. How wise is it to pull out of the economy a large segment of young men precisely when they could be the most dynamic and productive? And for how long to do pull them out? It takes 4-6 months to train a solider. Then, a typical term of service would be no less than 6-12 months depending on your system. In other words, at the very least a young conscript would leave home and be pulled out of the market and the economy for a full year. Without a well-oiled system and legal framework this can be catastrophic.
Besides, what does a large, under-paid, under-fed, and under-trained force become? Slave labor for the generals. They can be used to make roads and build mansions, but as a combat force their value is zero.
Furthermore, what does a conscription look like in a country which is breaking apart? It looks like a free distribution of firearms.
Last but not least - Turchinov and Iatseniuk are kidding themselves: a bigger Ukrainian army by no means implies a less pro-Russian one. What is the point of creating a conscript army if all it does is increase the numbers of servicemen changing sides and helping the Russian-speakers? Did I mention that the biggest population centers are, of course, also in the East?
To put it bluntly: to propose to return to a conscript army for the Ukraine is nothing short of absolute and total lunacy. I can only wonder which crazies in the West gave Turchinov and Iatseniuk this crazy idea. McCain? Hillary? Kerry?
The good news is that this kind of lunacy shows that the leaders of the junta in power have completely lost any sense of reality and that every single measure they officially announce with great pomp and earnestness only makes their situation worse.
If this insanity continues at the same pace the end of Banderastan might be very near.
The Saker
Ukraine reinstates conscription as crisis deepens
Sure enough, for the zombified TV watchers this might sound like something meaningful. But is it? Let's recall where the current Ukrainian military comes form by remembering what the Ukraine's military was at the moment this Soviet Republic became independent.
I have long destroyed my old archives and I simply did not want to scout the Internet for hours to find out what the Ukraine had inherited from the USSR. I knew that the Ukies had inherited what was called the "2nd strategic echelon" which translates into "not the newest weapons systems, but a lot of them". And today, I suddenly came across an interesting article in the Russian press which gave me exactly what I wanted: a description of what the armed forces of the independent Ukraine began with. As it turns out, the Ukraine had:
700,000 servicemen
14 motorized rifle divisions.
4 tank divisions
3 artillery divisions
8 artillery brigades
4 Spetsnaz brigades
2 airborne brigade
7 attack helicopters regiments
3 air armies (about 1100 combat aircraft)
1 independent Air Defense Army
Not bad eh?
Today there are all sorts of figures thrown around about how big the Ukrainian military is, anywhere from several tens of thousands to a few hundred. It really all depends on what you count and how you count. We should stay clear from this kind of bean count and simply state the Ukrainian military is both unwilling and/or unable to crush a rebellion composed only of a few hundred armed men backed by a few thousand unarmed civilians (I am talking about the folks actually manning barricades and occupying buildings, not about sympathizers). In other words, the pro-Russian insurgency in the eastern Ukraine could be defeated with just one battalion of airborne troops. And yet, the regime cannot even muster that much.
Why?
There are two reasons. The first one is that there is a stream of consistent and mutually corroborating reports on the Runet (Russian Internet) which says that the pro-Russian insurgents and the Ukrainian servicemen simply do not want to shoot at each other, even when given the order to do so. Furthermore, they appear to be in regular contact with each other and there is an informal understanding that neither side will fire at the other.
The other reason is, of course, 22 years of "democracy". Keep in mind that only 9 years of democracy almost destroyed Russia which by 1998-9 was pretty close to a total collapse. Several factors contributed to avoid this outcome, first and foremost the nomination of Putin, but Russia came very, very close to simply disappearing as a unitary state. If democracy could do that to a giant like Russia in only 8-9 years, one can only imagine what it could do to a much smaller and weaker Ukraine over 22 years.
Keep in mind that if the military was simply neglected and abandoned, then the rest of the economy pro-actively pillaged by the oligarchs. Think Berezovsky, think Khodorkovsky, then multiply them by 10 or 20 and increase their period of malfeasance from 9 years to 22 years and it is outright amazing that there still is a little something left of the Ukrainian economy in 2014. True, most of that is located in the East and was kept on life support by Russian money. Still, I have to say that while I am most definitely not an admirer of the Soviet system, the fact that it took so long to truly obliterate the Ukraine is a testimony to the resilience and what I would call a "capital of momentum" left by the Soviet Union to its successor states. Even Russia survived the absolute horror of the 1990s only thanks to all the "momentum" it inherited from the USSR.
No wonder that so many people today are becoming nostalgic of the Soviet era - by a strange self-protection mechanism the human being remembers the good much better than the bad (anybody who has gone through bootcamp will attest to that). And it is undeniable that compared to the empty promises, and actual horrors, of democracy the Soviet system was much, much better.
What is clear now is that the Ukraine has eventually wasted all of what it had been given by the Soviet Union. There is no more momentum left. The Ukraine is at a full stop, and it is rapidly disintegrating.
So what about this idea of return to a conscript military?
It is, to put it mildly, of truly breathtaking stupidity. There is no other way of putting it.
First, and this might sound paradoxical, the Ukraine simply does not need a military at all, if only because it cannot afford one. In fact, a country is MUCH safer not having a military than having a useless one because the latter can always be used to justify an attack whereas a country without a military is extremely hard to attack, at least in political terms.
Then, it takes decades and huge sums of money to (re-)built a military. The Ukraine simply cannot afford that at all, so why bother?
Also, the military is not the correct tool to use to put down insurgents, not the Russian speakers in the East, not the Banderists in the West. That is a mission for Internal Troops which have a totally different training and equipment than the regular military. In other words, what the Ukraine needs first and foremost today are forces like the Berkut which the junta has destroyed.
Then consider the economy. How wise is it to pull out of the economy a large segment of young men precisely when they could be the most dynamic and productive? And for how long to do pull them out? It takes 4-6 months to train a solider. Then, a typical term of service would be no less than 6-12 months depending on your system. In other words, at the very least a young conscript would leave home and be pulled out of the market and the economy for a full year. Without a well-oiled system and legal framework this can be catastrophic.
Besides, what does a large, under-paid, under-fed, and under-trained force become? Slave labor for the generals. They can be used to make roads and build mansions, but as a combat force their value is zero.
Furthermore, what does a conscription look like in a country which is breaking apart? It looks like a free distribution of firearms.
Last but not least - Turchinov and Iatseniuk are kidding themselves: a bigger Ukrainian army by no means implies a less pro-Russian one. What is the point of creating a conscript army if all it does is increase the numbers of servicemen changing sides and helping the Russian-speakers? Did I mention that the biggest population centers are, of course, also in the East?
To put it bluntly: to propose to return to a conscript army for the Ukraine is nothing short of absolute and total lunacy. I can only wonder which crazies in the West gave Turchinov and Iatseniuk this crazy idea. McCain? Hillary? Kerry?
The good news is that this kind of lunacy shows that the leaders of the junta in power have completely lost any sense of reality and that every single measure they officially announce with great pomp and earnestness only makes their situation worse.
If this insanity continues at the same pace the end of Banderastan might be very near.
The Saker
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