Russia prepares for the worst in Syria

The commander in chief of the Russian Airborne Forces, General Vladimir Shamanov, has confirmed rumors that the Airborne Forces have adopted a plan to evacuate Russian citizens from Syria.  While this does most definitely not mean that Russia believes that the Assad regime will fall, this does show that this is an outcome for which the Kremlin is making all necessary contingency plans.

General Shamanov

For a while already a number of Russian Navy ships, including at least two large landing ships, have been involved in various types of maneuvers in the Mediterranean and this had lead to speculation that these ships could be involved in a possible evacuation of Russian citizens from Syria.  This is a reasonable hypothesis, in particular for the port city of Tartus.  The Naval Infantry contingent upon these ships is certainly sufficient to act as a protection force during such an evacuation.  What the Airborne Forces could provide, however, is the means to evacuate Russian citizens from other Syrian cities including Damascus.

Furthermore, Russia now has the means to send in a peacekeeping force on very short notice should the creation of such a force be decided by the UNSC.

Finally, while I personally absolutely do not believe that such an option is being considered by the Kremlin, the combination of Navy and Airborne Forces does provide Russia with the means to engage in an operation similar to what the French did in Rwanda in 1994 with their Opération Turquoise: get militarily involved and prop up a collapsing regime under the guise of an evacuation operation.

I really do not think that we should read too much into all this other than the fact that all the signs are showing that Russia is preparing for pretty much any possible contingency in Syria, what the Americans call "hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and settle for anything in the middle".

The Saker

Only in Russia...

Sergei Mironov

I was just watching the Russian TV news (Channel One) when I heard the leader of the Russian "liberal" opposition, Sergei Mironov, declare that if he becomes President he would name General Vladimir Shamanov, the current Commander of the Russian Airborne Forces,  as Minister of Defense. 

If the most pro-Western (relatively speaking) candidate to the post of President openly nominates a "super-hawk" (according to the Jamestown Foundation) it really illustrates the fact that the West has no allies at all in the Russian political scene.

I can almost hear the horrified exclamations in the various US think tanks after such a declaration...

By the way, Shamanov would make an excellent Minister of Defense for Russia, here I have to agree with Mironov (who himself used to serve in the Airborne Forces), in particular if he works under a strict President with a clear vision for the future of Russian Armed Forces.

Vladimir Shamanov

At the very least, I want to hope that following the next Presidential election the current Minister of Defense, Anatoly Serdyukov and his subservient Chief of General Staff, General Nikolai Makarov, are both replaced with men whom the armed forces can trust and who are not universally disliked.

Serdyukov and Makarov have presided over some rather painful military reforms which have not yielded the expected results and they now both need to be officially thanked and let go.

My advice to Putin (who, I am quite sure, reads my blog with rapt attention) would be as follows:  make Dmitry Rogozin the next Minister of Defense and Vladimir Shamanov the next Chief of Staff; that would immensely boost your popularity with the armed forces and would gave US and NATO leaders some really bad nightmares...