Nothing major has happened over the past 24 hours, but a lot of small but interesting things have happened in the past couple of days. What I propose to do first today is to list them with a URL to the original source:
A Ukrainian Smørrebrød:
According to a recent poll of the Lithuanian TV station TV3 82% of their viewers say that Russian media info is trustworthy. Get the details here in English from FortRuss: http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/82-of-lithuanian-viewers-support-russia.html
There is now also a petition in the UK to oppose UK military involvement in the Ukraine. See here: http://www.change.org/p/hm-government-david-cameron-mp-no-to-british-military-involvement-in-ukraine
A Swiss newspaper is saying that the US delivered four mini-nukes to the Ukraine. I am 99.9999% sure that this is nonsense. But the rumor itself is an interesting fact. See here: http://www.schweizmagazin.ch/nachrichten/ausland/22283-Vier-amerikanische-Mini-Atombomben-der-Ukraine.html
Neocons still want to believe that they will beat Russia. See here: http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/alexander-j-motyl/why-russia-will-lose-ukraine
Russia and Cyprus has signed a military agreement. See here: http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/02/25/399160/Russia-Cyprus-ink-military-accord
Russia is offering Antey-2500 missiles to Iran. See here: http://rt.com/news/234855-russia-iran-missiles-deal/
Ukraine is entering hyperinflation. See here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-25/ukraine-enters-hyperinflation-currency-trading-halted-soon-we-will-wwalk-around-suit
Prices are causing shortages in the Ukraine. See here: http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/events/3483908-yz-za-rosta-tsen-ukrayntsy-opustoshauit-mahazyny
The OSCE is doing it's utmost not to notice that Novorussia is withdrawing its heavy weapons while the junta is not. See here: http://rt.com/news/235399-ukraine-osce-weapons-withdrawal/
Three citizens of Donetsk were executed by the Novorussian authorities for committing terrorist attacks using a 82mm mortar against the civilian population. Their motive? Money. See here: http://riafan.ru/217127-opolchentsyi-kaznili-troih-donchan-kotoryie-za-dengi-obstrelivali-gorod/
The US/NATO are continuing their saber-rattling along the Russian border. See here: http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-nato-military-convoys-of-tanks-and-armored-vehicles-at-russias-doorstep-rolling-along-the-estonia-russia-border/5433373
Novorussians soldiers are finding US equipment including communication gear in Debaltsevo. See here: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=86d_1424397139
Zakharchenko is fed up with junta's non-compliance with the Minsk accords and has issued an ultimatum: comply by tomorrow or else. See here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqEu8XAL-zw
Summary:
It is quite clear that the junta is either unable or unwilling to implement the Minsk-2 Agreements (M2A) and that the US is acting like that agreement was never signed in the first place. In fact, since Poroshenko's power is entirely dependent on US support, I consider him as little more then the executioner of US orders with little or no power of his own.
There are more and more signs indicating that M2A was a major victory for Russia which succeeded in making the Europeans commit to something the US does not want and which Poroshenko cannot deliver on. Clearly, the US is now using all its power to get the OSCE to shut up and look the other way, but time is definitely on the Novorussian side: they can wait until it is clear that it was the junta which did not comply with M2A at which point the Russian-Novorussian border will de jure be lost for the junta (de facto they lost it last summer).
Zakharchanko is literally radiating confidence and so are the other Novorussians. The contrast with the chaos in Kiev could not be greater.
As for the US, it is acting like reality simply does not exist. For Uncle Sam, it purely "more of the same", more rhetoric, more saber-rattling, more hot air even though nobody seems to be taking it very seriously.
What will be crucial in the near future is to see whether Merkel and Hollande will hold the course on M2A or whether Uncle Sam will force them to cave in yet again. They now have *a lot* invested in M2A, but then again, so did the EU with Southstream. My feeling is that right now anything could happen, it is a 50/50 situation. Lavrov is doing a great job demanding that the German and French stick to the deal and so is Zakharchenko.
All in all, I am rather satisfied with the recent developments.
The Saker
Saker note @EVERYBODY PLEASE POST YOUR COMMENTS ON THE NEW BLOG!
This blog will CLOSE for comments on March 1st. The new one has the popular threaded comments and faster moderation:
http://thesaker.is/blog/
Showing posts with label Ukraine SITREP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ukraine SITREP. Show all posts
Friday, February 27, 2015
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Ukraine SITREP Feb 24th 2015
The withdrawal of heavy weapons and M2A:
The situation on the line of contact is generally calm. The Novorussian forces are withdrawing their heavy weapons according to schedule while the junta forces are, by most reports, not or, not much. The excuse for these delays is that "the necessary conditions have not been created". In reality, the problem is that Poroshenko has very little control over the various armed forces. Apparently, the regular armed forces do more or less obey him, and since these are the most heavily armed, there is some hope that they will eventually withdraw. The various death-squads (volunteer battalions, internal forces, etc.) will probably resist as much as possible, but since they don't have much heavy firepower, that is probably not a major obstacle right now.
There is also a very real possibility that Poroshenko himself might be preventing that withdrawal. The problem is not in the withdrawal of heavy guns by itself (the junta knows that the Novorussians will not attack) but that after completing this point of the Minsk 2 Agreement (M2A) the junta will have to go down the list and that is simply something the Nazis in Kiev cannot do. My guess is that all this talk about sending in peacekeepers has exactly the same rationale: to stop the implementation of M2A in a way that could not be blamed on Kiev. Clearly, M2A has delivered a crushing blow to the stance of the junta by forcing it to do something it cannot do: negotiate and work with the Novorussian resistance. I have no doubt that Poroshenko wants to break out of M2A, but his problem is how to do it without taking the blame for it. Hence the foot-dragging with an otherwise rather straightforward withdrawal and all that talk about peacekeepers.
US weapons to the Ukraine or Russian weapons to Iran?
The US is still determined to send more weapons to the Ukraine, even in direct violation of the spirit, if not the letter, of M2A. Russia is getting increasingly fed-up with that kind of attitude and Russian officials are now discussing selling the top-of-the-line Antey-2500 missile to Iran. This missile is arguable the most advanced air defense system on the planet and if the Russians really sell that to Iran the US and Israel will be absolutely sick with rage and frustration.
By the way, I was informed that there is a petition on the Internet trying to stop US weapons deliveries to the junta. If you can, please sign it here:
http://diy.rootsaction.org/petitions/no-weapons-to-ukraine
Signs of destabilization in Baderastan
The regime of Poroshenko is clearly in a very difficult situation. Roughly speaking, Poroshenko & Co represent the interests of oligarchs masquerading as Nazis while his opposition is the real thing - bona fide Nazi crackpots who feel that their "revolution of dignity" was stolen from them, that the new regime is every bit as corrupt as the old one, and far more incompetent. They are right, of course. So now more and more of these "grassroots Nazis" are threatening Poroshenko with a Third Maidan or even a revolution.
Check out this Right Sector site: http://pravyysektor.info/slider/25-02-2015-marsh-pravdy-marsh-pravyh/
Here is my translation of this text:
A year ago, they came to power in our blood. The blood of patriots. During this year they gave up the interests of Ukraine and betrayed the idea of the Ukrainian nation. They promised to fight corruption. They promised lustration. They made us poor. They destroyed belief in justice. They killed the truth. We remember the never investigated murders of hundreds of Maidan. We remember the murder of Sasha Belyi. We remember the shameful surrender Crimea. We remember Saur-Mogila, Ilovaiisk, the Donetsk airport, Debaltsevo. The perpetrators have not been punished. It's time to hold them to account!And just to make sure that the message gets through, here is the poster illustrating it:
 |
| Right Sector poster |
The text says:
March of the Truth
March of the Right
The Maidan did not fight for a regime of traitors
It is time to hold them to account
And it is signed by the Right Sector and the organization Trezub of S. Bandera (even crazier crazies than the regular crazies).
Now, it is true that by most accounts the USA has a tight control over the hardcore Nazi crazies in the Ukraine (via leaders like Iarosh) but I am beginning to detect this very old pattern of the puppet breaking lose from the puppeteer which we have all seen in Afghanistan, in Libya and Syria. I would argue that the neo-Nazis crazies in the Ukraine are very similar to the Takfiri freaks of ISIS or the so-called "Syrian opposition". The chances of that kind of hate-filled ideology slipping out of the control of those who fostered it (the USA) is very high.
What about our NATO friends?
 |
| Sir Adrian Bradshaw |
Apparently, the British feel that the Baltic States and Poland have greatly surpassed the UK in hysterical russophobia and fear-mongering and that now is the time to catch up with them with even more terrifying statements. What is sure is that Sir Adrian sure look extremely worried on his official picture...
Last but not least - the OSCE
The OSCE has taken notice with grave concern at the de-accreditation of over 100 Russian media sources in the Ukraine. But not because this might be a violation of free speech or journalism, no, but because, I kid you not, the OSCE is concerned that as a result of this de-accreditation "the Russian audience might be deprived from balanced reporting form the Ukraine"!!! The OSCE also added that the organization "understands that national security reasons" behind the Ukrainian decision.
Yet again, all I can say is that I fully agree with V. Nuland.
The Saker
Friday, February 6, 2015
Ukraine SITREP: *Extremely* dangerous situation in Debaltsevo
The Novorussian and the junta have agreed to a cease-fire to allow the civilian population to leave Debaltsevo. In theory, each civilian will get to chose whether he/she wants to be evacuated to Novorussia or to the Nazi-occupied Ukraine. The convoy of refugees will be escorted by senior OSCE officials. Both sides to the conflict have pledged not to open fire during the time needed for this operation. Now consider this:
1) The only thing protecting the junta forces are, precisely, these civilians. If these civilians leave, then Debaltsevo will turn into Saur Mogila. Until now, the Novorussians have advanced rather slowly precisely because they could not use the full power of their artillery to soften up the well dug-in junta forces. But thanks to the Voentorg, the Novorussians now have plenty of firepower now and if they decide to really open up upon the junta forces the latter will suffer the same devastating consequences as their (now dead) colleagues in Saur Mogila. Everybody understands that.
2) Tonight the junta has used white phosphorus again, and in the recent days they have used both ballistic missiles and cluster munitions. Why this sudden concern with the Debaltsevo civilians (whom the Nazis consider as "bugs" anyway)? Does anybody really believe that the Nazi freaks in Kiev care for Novorussian civilians?!
3) Kerry, Hollande and Merkel were in Kiev today. The latter two will be in Moscow tomorrow. In Germany, the Munich Security Conference is meeting. NATO is still claiming that "hundreds and hundreds" of Russian Federation soldiers are operating in Novorussia. While some US officials speak of sending "lethal aid" to the junta, others seem to oppose it.
What does that all tell you?
Me - it tells me that this is the PERFECT opportunity for the kind of false flag massacres NATO and the US are so good at. That is how the "Empire of Kindness" justified bombing the Bosnian Serbs, that is how the "Empire of Kindness" justified bombing all of Serbia and that is how the "Empire of Kindness" justified bombing Libya.
Tomorrow, such an attack will be very easy to organize. Just send a group of men to post a Claymore mine anywhere along the convoy's route, plant a 152mm shell with a remote under the road where the bus will collect the refugees, pay some patsy to hide in the ditch with an RPG, or use a regular Grad strike at any time - and, voilà, you will have exactly the kind of atrocity which was used to justify all the previous wars of the "Empire of Kindness".
Except that this time around, the goal will not be to bomb or invade Novorussia (that is something the US/NATO simply cannot do), but to create the kind if hysteria which might make it possible to save the junta forces in the Debaltsevo cauldron. That, at least, could be the plan. Also, if a massacre happens at the evacuation of refugees, then this will "prove" that the Novorussians don't care about civilians and create a "Sarajavo-like" situation in which the surrounded force gets to shoot as much as it wants while the surrounding force is crucified by the imperial propaganda for every shell fired.
I sure hope that I am wrong, but I won't breathe normally again until tomorrow evening because if no false flag happens tomorrow this will be a real miracle.
The Saker
1) The only thing protecting the junta forces are, precisely, these civilians. If these civilians leave, then Debaltsevo will turn into Saur Mogila. Until now, the Novorussians have advanced rather slowly precisely because they could not use the full power of their artillery to soften up the well dug-in junta forces. But thanks to the Voentorg, the Novorussians now have plenty of firepower now and if they decide to really open up upon the junta forces the latter will suffer the same devastating consequences as their (now dead) colleagues in Saur Mogila. Everybody understands that.
2) Tonight the junta has used white phosphorus again, and in the recent days they have used both ballistic missiles and cluster munitions. Why this sudden concern with the Debaltsevo civilians (whom the Nazis consider as "bugs" anyway)? Does anybody really believe that the Nazi freaks in Kiev care for Novorussian civilians?!
3) Kerry, Hollande and Merkel were in Kiev today. The latter two will be in Moscow tomorrow. In Germany, the Munich Security Conference is meeting. NATO is still claiming that "hundreds and hundreds" of Russian Federation soldiers are operating in Novorussia. While some US officials speak of sending "lethal aid" to the junta, others seem to oppose it.
What does that all tell you?
Me - it tells me that this is the PERFECT opportunity for the kind of false flag massacres NATO and the US are so good at. That is how the "Empire of Kindness" justified bombing the Bosnian Serbs, that is how the "Empire of Kindness" justified bombing all of Serbia and that is how the "Empire of Kindness" justified bombing Libya.
Tomorrow, such an attack will be very easy to organize. Just send a group of men to post a Claymore mine anywhere along the convoy's route, plant a 152mm shell with a remote under the road where the bus will collect the refugees, pay some patsy to hide in the ditch with an RPG, or use a regular Grad strike at any time - and, voilà, you will have exactly the kind of atrocity which was used to justify all the previous wars of the "Empire of Kindness".
Except that this time around, the goal will not be to bomb or invade Novorussia (that is something the US/NATO simply cannot do), but to create the kind if hysteria which might make it possible to save the junta forces in the Debaltsevo cauldron. That, at least, could be the plan. Also, if a massacre happens at the evacuation of refugees, then this will "prove" that the Novorussians don't care about civilians and create a "Sarajavo-like" situation in which the surrounded force gets to shoot as much as it wants while the surrounding force is crucified by the imperial propaganda for every shell fired.
I sure hope that I am wrong, but I won't breathe normally again until tomorrow evening because if no false flag happens tomorrow this will be a real miracle.
The Saker
Thursday, February 5, 2015
Ukraine SITREP: Debaltsevo cauldron finally closed?
This time this sure looks official: the Russian TV channel REN-TV has announced that the Debaltsevo cauldron has been finally closed, just north of the city of Debaltsevo itself and not further north up the highway where this had been expected. The same reports say that the DNR and LNR forces met, so we are not talking about holding the highway under direct artillery fire anymore, but about Novorussian forces actually digging in across the highway and truly closing it down. Earlier this evening, Colonel Cassad was reporting the highway still not closed, but if you look at his map, you can clearly see the location where the two forces apparently joined a few hours later (right over the word ДЕБАЛЬЦЕВО).
I took a quick look at militarymaps.info and here is what I saw there:
On this map the Novorussian units have still not closed the cauldron. Weird.
So who is right?
My gut feeling that the cauldron has probably been closed. My guess is that the junta was so concerned about this that it sent two SU-25 to provide close air support to the surrounded junta forces (both aircraft were shot down). This was probably a last desperate attempt to prevent the cauldron from closing.
We should know soon.
No major developments elsewhere along the line of contact.
The Saker
 |
| Map from Colonel Cassad |
 |
| Debaltsevo on militarymaps.info |
So who is right?
My gut feeling that the cauldron has probably been closed. My guess is that the junta was so concerned about this that it sent two SU-25 to provide close air support to the surrounded junta forces (both aircraft were shot down). This was probably a last desperate attempt to prevent the cauldron from closing.
We should know soon.
No major developments elsewhere along the line of contact.
The Saker
Monday, February 2, 2015
Ukraine SITREP + open thread
The Saker:
Feeling better, but on the road all day today. Will resume full-time blogging tomorrow.
Debaltsevo cauldron - still *not* closed:
According to Cassad, the cauldron is still not closed and I trust him. This being said, the Novorussians are holding the only highway out of the cauldron under their fire and they selectively allow some units to leave (medical, support & staff, for propaganda purposes) while destroying others (combat units). So even if the cauldron ain't quite closed, the junta forces are de-facto surrounded. See map (from Cassad):
Novorussian air defenses:
Remember the Tochka-Us shot down over Saur Mogila? Auslander reported that they had been shot down by (non-Novo) Russian. Then recently, two junta Tochkas "broke up in mid air". This time around the Novorussians have admitted that they shot down at least one Tochka. See the photo (also from Cassad):
The interesting thing is that Cassad mentions the Russian short range air defense system Pantsir as the system which might have shot down the Tochka. This is interesting for a number of reasons:
1) The Pantsir is a brand new Russian system. IF a Pantsir really did this, then the fact that the Novorussians are saying so basically means "Putin is arming us and we ain't even hiding it". A message to Kiev maybe?
2) The Pantsir is not supposed to be designed to shoot down ballistic missiles. IF a Pantsir really did this, then it proves that its real capabilities are far larger then its officially advertised ones.
3) If this was NOT a Pantsir, then we go right back to the explanation of last summer: the Russians are "covering" Novorussians with their S-300PMs.
I am personally inclined to believe the that this is what happened. The Pantsir is a very advanced "combined" (missile+guns) mobile but *point* defense systems designed to shoot down cruise missiles, aircraft and precision weapons. Ballistic missiles are different due to their speed and flight trajectory. Whatever may be the case, the fact that the Novorussians admitted that "they" shot down the Tochka is very good news as it shows a degree of confidence which will horrify Kiev.
The 4th Junta mobilization is the 4th one to totally fail:
Yup, just like the 3 previous ones, the 4th mobilization completely failed. According to a Ukrainian newspaper up to 80% of the conscripts do not want to go to fight. I am not sure about the 80% figure, but it appears to be a huge problem which further waves of mobilizations (the 5th one has already been announce) will, of course, not solve at all.
Novorussia (finally) announces a full mobilization:
Zakharchenko has announced that Novorussia is declaring a full mobilization. The neat thing is that this mobilization will be *voluntary* but that Zakharchenko expects 100'000 men to show up. Here we can only "thank" the junta for its systematic terror campaign against the towns and cities of Novorussia which has acted better than any recruitment center ever could. If the Novorussians really succeed in getting these kinds of numbers, and my guess is that they will, by next summer the junta will be in real danger of really losing all of historical Novorussia and of having Crimea linked to Russia by land.
Summary and conclusion:
Ever since the junta resumed its offensive against Novorussia the Novorussians have acted very carefully, slowly and effectively. True, these counter-attacks were limited to tactical level engagements. However, this is the correct response as a full scale operational level counter-offensive would be very dangerous and considering how much time the junta forces had to dig in and prepare its defensive positions, such a counter-attack would probably have been stalled, if not defeated. Zakharchenko and his General Staff clearly have protected their most precious resource - their men - and have limited their response to relieving the pressure on Donetsky and Gorlovka.
However, I am beginning to detect the signs of a much bigger operation to come. For example, the combats around Mariupol were also a good way of probing the junta defenses. Combine that with the rumors that the Novorussians have one, possibly two, SU-25s (how much will they have by this summer?), that their air defenses are shooting down ballistic missiles, that the Russian Voentorg is almost an officially admitted reality, that the Novorussians will only negotiate on the basis of an existing line of contact (rather then the one agreed upon in Minsk) and you get the imagine.
Then look at the other side: the 4th mobilization failed. The junta's "winter offensive" was a complete disaster. The economy has tanked and not even the combined "moral" (so to speak) pressure of Soros and Levi has succeeded in getting the money to bail out the junta. Add to this protest and even riots in junta-controlled Banderastan, the EU cracking along all its seams (SYRIZA in Greece, Podemos Spain, the Charlie Hebdo psyops in France, the Swiss Franc earthquake, the use of "quantitative easing" (i.e. the printing press) by the ECB and ask yourself what the anti-Russian camp will look like in, say, 4-6 months.
I am starting to get the feeling that the Russians (Novo and others) have decided that they will solve the "Novorussian part" of the "Ukrainian problem" this summer (the Ukrainian one will probably take many years to solve).
Can you imagine what a 100'000 strong Novorussian army armed to the teeth with the latest Russian military hardware will look like by June? Especially from a riot-filled, economically devastated Kiev?
Am I dreaming or do you also get that feeling?
Cheers and,until tomorrow, open thread again!
The Saker
Feeling better, but on the road all day today. Will resume full-time blogging tomorrow.
Debaltsevo cauldron - still *not* closed:
According to Cassad, the cauldron is still not closed and I trust him. This being said, the Novorussians are holding the only highway out of the cauldron under their fire and they selectively allow some units to leave (medical, support & staff, for propaganda purposes) while destroying others (combat units). So even if the cauldron ain't quite closed, the junta forces are de-facto surrounded. See map (from Cassad):
Novorussian air defenses:
Remember the Tochka-Us shot down over Saur Mogila? Auslander reported that they had been shot down by (non-Novo) Russian. Then recently, two junta Tochkas "broke up in mid air". This time around the Novorussians have admitted that they shot down at least one Tochka. See the photo (also from Cassad):
 |
| Rear section of a Tochka-U ballistic missile |
1) The Pantsir is a brand new Russian system. IF a Pantsir really did this, then the fact that the Novorussians are saying so basically means "Putin is arming us and we ain't even hiding it". A message to Kiev maybe?
2) The Pantsir is not supposed to be designed to shoot down ballistic missiles. IF a Pantsir really did this, then it proves that its real capabilities are far larger then its officially advertised ones.
3) If this was NOT a Pantsir, then we go right back to the explanation of last summer: the Russians are "covering" Novorussians with their S-300PMs.
I am personally inclined to believe the that this is what happened. The Pantsir is a very advanced "combined" (missile+guns) mobile but *point* defense systems designed to shoot down cruise missiles, aircraft and precision weapons. Ballistic missiles are different due to their speed and flight trajectory. Whatever may be the case, the fact that the Novorussians admitted that "they" shot down the Tochka is very good news as it shows a degree of confidence which will horrify Kiev.
The 4th Junta mobilization is the 4th one to totally fail:
Yup, just like the 3 previous ones, the 4th mobilization completely failed. According to a Ukrainian newspaper up to 80% of the conscripts do not want to go to fight. I am not sure about the 80% figure, but it appears to be a huge problem which further waves of mobilizations (the 5th one has already been announce) will, of course, not solve at all.
Novorussia (finally) announces a full mobilization:
Zakharchenko has announced that Novorussia is declaring a full mobilization. The neat thing is that this mobilization will be *voluntary* but that Zakharchenko expects 100'000 men to show up. Here we can only "thank" the junta for its systematic terror campaign against the towns and cities of Novorussia which has acted better than any recruitment center ever could. If the Novorussians really succeed in getting these kinds of numbers, and my guess is that they will, by next summer the junta will be in real danger of really losing all of historical Novorussia and of having Crimea linked to Russia by land.
Summary and conclusion:
Ever since the junta resumed its offensive against Novorussia the Novorussians have acted very carefully, slowly and effectively. True, these counter-attacks were limited to tactical level engagements. However, this is the correct response as a full scale operational level counter-offensive would be very dangerous and considering how much time the junta forces had to dig in and prepare its defensive positions, such a counter-attack would probably have been stalled, if not defeated. Zakharchenko and his General Staff clearly have protected their most precious resource - their men - and have limited their response to relieving the pressure on Donetsky and Gorlovka.
However, I am beginning to detect the signs of a much bigger operation to come. For example, the combats around Mariupol were also a good way of probing the junta defenses. Combine that with the rumors that the Novorussians have one, possibly two, SU-25s (how much will they have by this summer?), that their air defenses are shooting down ballistic missiles, that the Russian Voentorg is almost an officially admitted reality, that the Novorussians will only negotiate on the basis of an existing line of contact (rather then the one agreed upon in Minsk) and you get the imagine.
Then look at the other side: the 4th mobilization failed. The junta's "winter offensive" was a complete disaster. The economy has tanked and not even the combined "moral" (so to speak) pressure of Soros and Levi has succeeded in getting the money to bail out the junta. Add to this protest and even riots in junta-controlled Banderastan, the EU cracking along all its seams (SYRIZA in Greece, Podemos Spain, the Charlie Hebdo psyops in France, the Swiss Franc earthquake, the use of "quantitative easing" (i.e. the printing press) by the ECB and ask yourself what the anti-Russian camp will look like in, say, 4-6 months.
I am starting to get the feeling that the Russians (Novo and others) have decided that they will solve the "Novorussian part" of the "Ukrainian problem" this summer (the Ukrainian one will probably take many years to solve).
Can you imagine what a 100'000 strong Novorussian army armed to the teeth with the latest Russian military hardware will look like by June? Especially from a riot-filled, economically devastated Kiev?
Am I dreaming or do you also get that feeling?
Cheers and,until tomorrow, open thread again!
The Saker
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Ukraine SITREP January 27th: Zionists, Nazis and a bit of history
The Zionists:
Oh this is too good!!! My two "favorite" Russia-hating Ueber-Zionists join forces in the New York Times to call for the salvation of the Nazi Junta in Kiev by a massive injection of capital.
Priceless.
Here is what they wrote: (full text)
Clearly, the Neocons and their Zionist allies are in a full-war mode, they fear that their russophobic Nazi regime in Kiev is going to tank and they are terrified at the consequences. As they should.
The Nazis:
Well, just as predicted the Rada in Kiev has declared Russia an "aggressor state". Now all that is needed to "prove" their point is a major false flag to show that hordes of Spetsnaz GRU throat-cutters are slaughtering babies in their cribs (Kuwait), blowing up peaceful shoppers (Markale market), committing genocide (Srebrenica), massacring villages (Racak) or using Viagra as a weapon of war (Libya). Then Putin needs to be upgraded form "new Stalin" to "new Hitler" (or both) and, voilà, the US and NATO will have to "shoulder their historical burden" of having to defend "civilization, human right, freedom and progress" against the revanchist Russian aggressor.
I am sorry to have to say that, but I consider a large scale false flag a virtual inevitability by now. God willing, the Junta is in too much disarray and chaos to make it happen, but I think that everybody in the Novorussian resistance needs to go to "red alert" for some crazy move by the Junta.
The belly is still fertile from which the foul beast sprang
Guys, I am constantly getting a flow of comments about "Jews this Jews that", "Nazis this, Nazis that", and the "killer argument" "Jews cannot be Nazis and Nazis cannot be Jews". Guys, think again. Look at all Zionists and Nazis have in common:
1) the belief in the existence of races/ethnicities
2) the belief in the superiority of their own race/ethnicity
3) the morbid obsession with blood and racial purity
4) a phenomenal propensity to use violence to achieve their goals
5) the belief that their opponents are not really human
6) a morbid interest for the occult (Ahnenerbe, Kabbalism)
7) a rabid hatred for Russia, Russians and Orthodoxy
Now, of course, they also happened to hate each other. So what? Trotskists hated Stalinists and vice versa, the SS hated the SA and vice versa and the Jesuits hated the Lutherans and vice versa. But in each case these movement spring from the same well (Bolshevism, National-Socialism and Frankish Papism).
Zionism and Nazism are born from the same fetid womb: 19th European secular nationalism and, as Brecht so well put it: the belly is still fertile from which the foul beast sprang. This is also the root of Ukrainian nationalism, Russian pan-Slavism, and many other ideologies. Most of them have lost traction and have been repudiated, but in Israel Zionism is still the main official state ideology and the same is true for the part of the ex-Ukraine run by the Nazi junta in Kiev.
Now, sincere there are apparently quite a few of you who still hold on to racist/racialist ideas, I feel the need to repeat here what I wrote in my post AngloZionist: Short primer for the newcomers:
Zionism is to Jews what National-Socialism is to Germans and what Communism is to Russians: a pathology triggered by a slight, but crucial, modification of these nation's "spiritual DNA". This is like comparing healthy tissue to a malignant tumor: very similar but different enough to be fatal.
The real enemy:
The real enemy is not the Jew, the German or the Russian, of course. The real enemy are evil, satanic ideologies. As Saint Paul so eloquently put it: For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms (Eph. 6:12). He did not say the "1%ers" of course, but if you ask me, this is close enough.
I recently got an email from a friend who asked me to stop using the word "Ukie" and I decided to follow his advice because even if some, or even most, Ukrainians nowadays might support the regime of freaks in Kiev, some, even maybe most, do not.
Yes, Soros and BHL are Jews. Real evil, bloodthirstily and ugly buffoons whom I despise from the very bottom of my heart. And yes, there ideology is the kind of Neocon Zionism which has become so popular in the USA and, in the past decades, in Israel (original Zionists were dramatically different, socialists, secularists and, actually, I think honest, if mistaken, idealists). Oh, not that I believe for one second that either one of them sincerely cares about his fellow Jews or about Israel. Not at all. Contrary to the popular belief, one does not need to care for Israel at all to be a Zionist. Are you shocked by that statement? Okay, here me out. Here is what I wrote in my "primer":
This is bull. Acting like a bull. In a corrida.
Personally, I don't even believe that the word "race". Here again, I will quote my "primer"
If we miss the real target and get distracted by the fake one put in front of us by the real enemy, we will act just like a bull in a Spanish corrida: we will always miss the real enemy who will exhaust us and then kill us.
Let's us please be smarter and stop constantly chasing the wrong enemy. Let's hit the real enemy there where he really is, there where he hides, there were it will really hurt him. Let's accurately name him. His name is "Legion" because he has many ideologies and manifestations and he shows up in any and all human groups.
One last thing: I am truly sick and tired of moderating comments about "Jew this, Jews that" or "Nazis this, Nazis that". So, exceptionally, I will not allow any comments on this post at all. And if some smart ass will post a comment about that elsewhere, I will delete it. I want the level of conversation of this blog to go up, not down, and if that means shutting up the Jew-centric trolling then I will. My apologies to everybody else, but the last thing I want here is 700 comments rehashing all the common racist/racialist inanities which were in fashion in the 20th century.
Please read the above post carefully, please re-read my "AngloZionists: a short primer" for a fuller discussion and, whether you agree with my arguments or not, please forgive me for exceptionally not opening this one post to comments.
Kind regards to all, cheers,
The Saker
Oh this is too good!!! My two "favorite" Russia-hating Ueber-Zionists join forces in the New York Times to call for the salvation of the Nazi Junta in Kiev by a massive injection of capital.
Priceless.
Here is what they wrote: (full text)
Save the New UkraineThe way the NYT presents these two bloodthirsty clowns is also typical. One, Soros, is a "philanthropist" while the other, Levi, is a "philosopher". They might as well have presented them as modern day saints.
A NEW Ukraine was born a year ago in the pro-European protests that helped to drive President Viktor F. Yanukovych from power. And today, the spirit that inspired hundreds of thousands to gather in the Maidan, Kiev’s Independence Square, is stronger than ever, even as it is under direct military assault from Russian forces supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine.
The new Ukraine seeks to become the opposite of the old Ukraine, which was demoralized and riddled with corruption. The transformation has been a rare experiment in participatory democracy; a noble adventure of a people who have rallied to open their nation to modernity, democracy and Europe. And this is just the beginning.
This experiment is remarkable for finding expression not only in defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity from the separatists, but also in constructive work. Maidan’s supporters have moved from opposition to nation building.
Many of those in government and Parliament are volunteers who have given up well-paying jobs to serve their country. Natalie Jaresko, a former investment banker, now works for a few hundred dollars a month as the new finance minister. Volunteers are helping Ukraine’s one million internally displaced people as well as working as advisers to ministers and in local government.
The new Ukraine, however, faces a potent challenge from the old Ukraine. The old Ukraine is solidly entrenched in a state bureaucracy that has worked hand in hand with a business oligarchy. And the reformers are also up against the manifest hostility of Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, who wants at all costs to destabilize Ukraine.
One drawback is that the new Ukraine is a well-kept secret, not just from the rest of the world but also from the Ukrainian public. Radical reforms have been hatched but not yet implemented.
It is instructive to compare Ukraine today with Georgia in 2004. When he became president that year, Mikheil Saakashvili immediately replaced the hated traffic police and removed the roadblocks used to extort bribes from drivers. The public recognized straight away that things had changed for the better.
Unfortunately, Ukraine has not yet found a similar demonstration project. Kiev’s police force is to be restructured, but if you need a driver’s license, you must still pay the same bribe as before.
Mr. Saakashvili was a revolutionary leader who first stamped out corruption but eventually turned it into a state monopoly. By contrast, Ukraine is a participatory democracy that does not rely on a single leader but on checks and balances. Democracies move slowly, but that may prove an advantage in the long run.
The big question is, will there be a long run? Although Russia is in a deepening financial crisis, Mr. Putin appears to have decided that he can destroy the new Ukraine before it can fully establish itself and before an economic downturn destroys his own popularity.
The Russian president is stepping up the military and financial pressure on Ukraine. Over the weekend, the city of Mariupol came under attack from forces that NATO said were backed by Russian troops, undermining the pretense that the separatists are acting on their own.
Ukraine will defend itself militarily, but it urgently needs financial assistance. The immediate need is for $15 billion. But to ensure Ukraine’s survival and encourage private investment, Western powers need to make a political commitment to provide additional sums, depending on the extent of the Russian assault and the success of Ukraine’s reforms.
The reformers, who want to avoid the leakages that were characteristic of the old Ukraine, have expressed their wish to be held accountable for all expenditures. They are passing extensive legislation but also want the International Monetary Fund to go on exercising oversight.
Unfortunately, just as democracies are slow to move, an association of democracies like the European Union is even slower. Mr. Putin is exploiting this.
It is not only the future of Ukraine that’s at stake, but that of the European Union itself. The loss of Ukraine would be an enormous blow; it would empower a Russian alternative to the European Union based on the rule of force rather than the rule of law. But if Europe delivered the financial assistance that Ukraine needs, Mr. Putin would eventually be forced to abandon his aggression. At the moment, he can argue that Russia’s economic troubles are caused by Western hostility, and the Russian public finds his argument convincing.
If, however, Europe is generous with its financial assistance, a stable and prosperous Ukraine will provide an example that makes clear that the blame for Russia’s financial troubles lies with Mr. Putin. The Russian public might then force him to emulate the new Ukraine. Europe’s reward would be a new Russia that has turned from a potent strategic threat into a potential strategic partner. Those are the stakes.
Clearly, the Neocons and their Zionist allies are in a full-war mode, they fear that their russophobic Nazi regime in Kiev is going to tank and they are terrified at the consequences. As they should.
The Nazis:
Well, just as predicted the Rada in Kiev has declared Russia an "aggressor state". Now all that is needed to "prove" their point is a major false flag to show that hordes of Spetsnaz GRU throat-cutters are slaughtering babies in their cribs (Kuwait), blowing up peaceful shoppers (Markale market), committing genocide (Srebrenica), massacring villages (Racak) or using Viagra as a weapon of war (Libya). Then Putin needs to be upgraded form "new Stalin" to "new Hitler" (or both) and, voilà, the US and NATO will have to "shoulder their historical burden" of having to defend "civilization, human right, freedom and progress" against the revanchist Russian aggressor.
I am sorry to have to say that, but I consider a large scale false flag a virtual inevitability by now. God willing, the Junta is in too much disarray and chaos to make it happen, but I think that everybody in the Novorussian resistance needs to go to "red alert" for some crazy move by the Junta.
The belly is still fertile from which the foul beast sprang
Guys, I am constantly getting a flow of comments about "Jews this Jews that", "Nazis this, Nazis that", and the "killer argument" "Jews cannot be Nazis and Nazis cannot be Jews". Guys, think again. Look at all Zionists and Nazis have in common:
1) the belief in the existence of races/ethnicities
2) the belief in the superiority of their own race/ethnicity
3) the morbid obsession with blood and racial purity
4) a phenomenal propensity to use violence to achieve their goals
5) the belief that their opponents are not really human
6) a morbid interest for the occult (Ahnenerbe, Kabbalism)
7) a rabid hatred for Russia, Russians and Orthodoxy
Now, of course, they also happened to hate each other. So what? Trotskists hated Stalinists and vice versa, the SS hated the SA and vice versa and the Jesuits hated the Lutherans and vice versa. But in each case these movement spring from the same well (Bolshevism, National-Socialism and Frankish Papism).
Zionism and Nazism are born from the same fetid womb: 19th European secular nationalism and, as Brecht so well put it: the belly is still fertile from which the foul beast sprang. This is also the root of Ukrainian nationalism, Russian pan-Slavism, and many other ideologies. Most of them have lost traction and have been repudiated, but in Israel Zionism is still the main official state ideology and the same is true for the part of the ex-Ukraine run by the Nazi junta in Kiev.
Now, sincere there are apparently quite a few of you who still hold on to racist/racialist ideas, I feel the need to repeat here what I wrote in my post AngloZionist: Short primer for the newcomers:
Now this might seem basic, but so many people miss it, that I will have to explicitly state it: to say that most US elites are Anglos or Jews does not mean that most Anglos or Jews are part of the US elites. That is a straw-man argument which deliberately ignores the non commutative property of my thesis to turn it into a racist statement which accuses most/all Anglos or Jews of some evil doing. So to be very clear:This is why the listing of Jews in power in Kiev because what is missing from the picture is either a list of all Jews who are not in power in Kiev or the list of all non-Jews who are in power in Kiev, or both.
When I speak of AngloZionist Empire I am referring to the predominant ideology of the 1%ers elites which for this Empire's "deep state".
By the way, there are non-Jewish Zionists (Biden, in his own words) and there are (plenty of) anti-Zionist Jews. Likewise, there are non-Anglo imperialists and there are (plenty of) anti-imperialists Anglos. To speak of "Nazi Germany" or "Soviet Russia" does in now way imply that all Germans were Nazis or all Russian s Communists. All this means it that the predominant ideology of these nations at that specific moment in time was National-Socialism and Marxism, that's all.
Zionism is to Jews what National-Socialism is to Germans and what Communism is to Russians: a pathology triggered by a slight, but crucial, modification of these nation's "spiritual DNA". This is like comparing healthy tissue to a malignant tumor: very similar but different enough to be fatal.
The real enemy:
The real enemy is not the Jew, the German or the Russian, of course. The real enemy are evil, satanic ideologies. As Saint Paul so eloquently put it: For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms (Eph. 6:12). He did not say the "1%ers" of course, but if you ask me, this is close enough.
I recently got an email from a friend who asked me to stop using the word "Ukie" and I decided to follow his advice because even if some, or even most, Ukrainians nowadays might support the regime of freaks in Kiev, some, even maybe most, do not.
Yes, Soros and BHL are Jews. Real evil, bloodthirstily and ugly buffoons whom I despise from the very bottom of my heart. And yes, there ideology is the kind of Neocon Zionism which has become so popular in the USA and, in the past decades, in Israel (original Zionists were dramatically different, socialists, secularists and, actually, I think honest, if mistaken, idealists). Oh, not that I believe for one second that either one of them sincerely cares about his fellow Jews or about Israel. Not at all. Contrary to the popular belief, one does not need to care for Israel at all to be a Zionist. Are you shocked by that statement? Okay, here me out. Here is what I wrote in my "primer":
Let's take the (hyper politically correct) Wikipedia definition of what the word "Zionism" means: it is "a nationalist movement of Jews and Jewish culture that supports the creation of a Jewish homeland in the territory defined as the Land of Israel". Apparently, no link to the US, the Ukraine or Timbuktu, right? But think again. Why would Jews - whether defined as a religion or an ethnicity - need a homeland anyway? Why can't they just live wherever they are born, just like Buddhist (a religion) or the African Bushmen (ethnicity) who live in many different countries? The canonical answer is that Jews have been persecuted everywhere and that therefore they need their own homeland to serve as a safe haven in case of persecutions. Without going into the issue of why Jews were persecuted everywhere and, apparently, in all times, this rationale clearly implies if not the inevitability of more persecutions or, at the very least, a high risk thereof. Let's accept that for demonstration sake and see what this, in turn, implies. First, that implies that Jews are inherently threatened by non-Jews who are all at least potential anti-Semites. The threat is so severe that a separate Gentile-free homeland must be created as the only, best and last way to protect Jews worldwide. This, in turn, implies that the continued existence of this homeland should become an vital and irreplaceable priority of all Jews worldwide lest a persecution suddenly breaks out and they have nowhere to go. Furthermore, until all Jews finally "move up" to Israel, they better be very, very careful as all the goyim around them could literally come down with a sudden case of genocidal anti-Semitism at any moment. Hence all the anti-anti-Semitic organizations a la ADL or UEJF, the Betar clubs, the network of sayanim, etc. In other words, far from being a local "dealing with Israel only" phenomenon, Zionism is a worldwide movement whose aim is to protect Jews from the apparently incurable anti-Semitism of the rest of the planet. As Israel Shahak correctly identified it, Zionism postulates that Jews should "think locally and act globally" and when given a choice of policies always ask THE crucial question: "But is it good for Jews?". So far from being only focused on Israel, Zionism is really a global, planetary, ideology which unequivocally split up all of mankind into two groups (Jews and Gentiles), which assumes that the latter are all potential genocidal maniacs (which is racist) and believes that saving Jewish lives is qualitatively different and more important than saving Gentile lives (which is racist again). Anyone doubting the ferocity of this determination should either ask a Palestinian or study the holiday of Purim, or both. Even better, read Gilad Atzmon and look up his definition of what is brilliantly called "pre-traumatic stress disorder".So we need to be very careful here. First, we cannot fight an Empire whose nature and essence we do not understand. Second, we cannot fight an enemy whom we cannot even name. I therefore submit that speaking of the AngloZionist Empire is not only correct, but even crucial: "Anglo" refers to historical roots and geopolitical reality, "Zionist" refers to its ideological world view. HOWEVER, as soon as we start "counting Jews" or saying that Nazis and Jews cannot be in the same junta, we are immediately falling back into a completely discredited 19th century West European ideology which has triggered many millions of deaths in all the major wars of the past couple of centuries.
This is bull. Acting like a bull. In a corrida.
Personally, I don't even believe that the word "race". Here again, I will quote my "primer"
First, I don't believe that Jews are a race or an ethnicity. I always doubted that, but reading Shlomo Sand really convinced me. Jews are not defined by religion either (most/many are secular). Truly, Jews are a tribe. A group one can chose to join (Elizabeth Taylor) or leave (Gilad Atzmon). In other words, I see "Jewishness" as a culture, or ideology, or education or any other number of things, but not something rooted in biology. I fully agree with Atzmon when he says that Jews are racist, but not a race. Second, I don't even believe that the concept of "race" has been properly defined and, hence, that it has any objective meaning. I therefore don't differentiate between human beings on the basis of an undefined criterion.But I am aware that there are people out there who consider themselves as Jews or Jewish (never understood the difference between these two terms, but nevermind). I say - let them. But let's not paint them as the enemy when the enemy is a tribal ideology which is shared by millions of people who do not consider themselves as Jews (US Evangelicals, for starters, millions of them).
If we miss the real target and get distracted by the fake one put in front of us by the real enemy, we will act just like a bull in a Spanish corrida: we will always miss the real enemy who will exhaust us and then kill us.
Let's us please be smarter and stop constantly chasing the wrong enemy. Let's hit the real enemy there where he really is, there where he hides, there were it will really hurt him. Let's accurately name him. His name is "Legion" because he has many ideologies and manifestations and he shows up in any and all human groups.
One last thing: I am truly sick and tired of moderating comments about "Jew this, Jews that" or "Nazis this, Nazis that". So, exceptionally, I will not allow any comments on this post at all. And if some smart ass will post a comment about that elsewhere, I will delete it. I want the level of conversation of this blog to go up, not down, and if that means shutting up the Jew-centric trolling then I will. My apologies to everybody else, but the last thing I want here is 700 comments rehashing all the common racist/racialist inanities which were in fashion in the 20th century.
Please read the above post carefully, please re-read my "AngloZionists: a short primer" for a fuller discussion and, whether you agree with my arguments or not, please forgive me for exceptionally not opening this one post to comments.
Kind regards to all, cheers,
The Saker
Monday, January 26, 2015
Ukraine SITREP 26th January
I have been trying to wait as long as possible to get some facts confirmed, but at this point in time I am confident enough to say that there are numerous and convergent signs that things are going extremely badly for the Kiev junta. Just look at the following recent headlines:
Concerning Debaltsevo and the rumors that the Junta forces were encircled in another "cauldron", they are probably a little premature. However, even if the Junta forces have not been fully encircled *yet*, there is strong evidence that they are indeed in the process of being encircled and many reports even speak of panic. However, the Junta has kept numerically large forces north of Donetsk and we should not dismiss them. By all accounts, the Junta forces are trying hard to break the Novorussian noose around Debaltsevo and they are also trying to recapture the Donetsk airport.
Here are two SITREPS translated by the great Kazzura which I find interesting:
Prime Minister Zakharchenko
Corps commander Eduard Basurin
I am generally weary of triumphalism and I always get nervous when I see somebody underestimating the enemy. Most importantly, we should remember that while the Junta seems to be suffering major military losses, it still has two options available a false flag operation and declare war with Russia.
Option one: false flag
The worse the Junta's military defeats, the higher the risk of a major false flag. Keep in mind that the Nazi Junta despises the east Ukrainian which it considers as "bugs", "insects" and "subhumans" which should be barbecued and that it will have no pity for its own forces if they are defeated or, worse, disloyal. And remember the Nazi slogan about Crimea: "the Crimea will be Ukrainian or empty". We have to assume that the Nazi freaks in Kiev are capable of anything and, having already shot down a civilian airliner, I would not put it past them to sabotage a nuclear plant or some other very high risk target.
Option two: declare with with Russia
Notice, I did not say war "on Russia" because that would make the Junta the aggressor. But the Rada is quite capable tomorrow of declaring Russia an "aggressor state". And if that is not enough, Kiev is absolutely capable of striking (at least a few times) anywhere along the Russian-Ukrainian border (including in Crimea) in order to pull Russia in. Even if Russia does not take the bait and simply rides out the strikes, or if Russia responds with a very minimal amount of force, Kiev will continue to declare the "thousands" of Russian troops have invaded and that Russian "tactical battalion groups" are operating all along the line of contact. There is no way that Kiev will ever admit that its forces have been defeated by local Novorussian resistance fighters. In other words, any defeat of the Junta forces will always be presented as a "Russian aggression against the European choice of the free Ukrainian nation".
Folks like Yatseniuk or Turchinov will never just flee like Yanukovich did - before they do that, they will make darn sure to destroy as much of the Ukraine as possible and that happens to be exactly the US plan to: if Uncle Sam cannot have it, neither will anybody else.
This one is far from over
I therefore caution everybody against any premature triumphalism. It ain't over and it won't be over anytime soon. Even if the Novorussians comprehensively defeat the Junta forces (again!), this will not push their attack very far beyond the current frontlines (they just don't have the manpower for that). So don't expect the Novorussians to free Kiev and overthrown the Junta. That is something only the Ukrainian people themselves can do, and right now they are nowhere near that kind of outcome.
Things to look very, very bad for Kiev and the current tactical difficulties faced by the Junta might well result in an operational level collapse. At which point we can expect all sides except the Novorussians to try to revive some kind of stale and futile "peace process" which the Novorussians will have to accept, except that this time around Russia will probably make more demands then the first time around. Now that Putin has declared that the Junta's army what just "NATO's legion" the mood in Moscow is rather dark and the disgust with Poroshenko and all his lies very wide-spread. So even if Russia accepts another cease-fire, the Junta will have to pay a price for its failed assault. I think that the loss of Mariupol might be one of the conditions demanded by Russia (at least I hope so).
What about the imperial "Axis of Kindness"?
The Empire is in full combat mode. After George Soros, the US Commander of NATO ground forces has visited Kiev and the western credit rating agencies have further downgraded Russia even though every single objective economic indicator says otherwise. Things are a tad more complicated in Europe were the victory of Syriza in Greece will create a major risk for the future of the EU. Sure, Merkel is more then willing to do the USA's bidding, but her popularity suffers from it and tensions between the EU plutocrats and the European people are only on the rise. In France the entire Charlie Hebdo psyop has resulted in a chaotic and most volatile situation, the Polish nonsense about Auschwitz being liberated by Ukrainians has damaged the credibility of the russophobic camp and the awareness that the Kiev Junta and its supporters are bona fide Nazis is slowly but inexorably growing everywhere.
As Lincoln is supposed to have said "you can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time". Time is running out for the Nazi freaks in Kiev.
The Saker
- Kiev urgently summons NATO-Ukraine meeting in Brussels
- Junta officers get the right to shoot their man in case of insubordination
- Kiev introduces state of emergency in Donbass, high alert across Ukraine
- Resistance to New Wave of Ukraine Mobilization Has Already Begun
- Panic in Kiev: Ukrainian forces surrender Donbass
Concerning Debaltsevo and the rumors that the Junta forces were encircled in another "cauldron", they are probably a little premature. However, even if the Junta forces have not been fully encircled *yet*, there is strong evidence that they are indeed in the process of being encircled and many reports even speak of panic. However, the Junta has kept numerically large forces north of Donetsk and we should not dismiss them. By all accounts, the Junta forces are trying hard to break the Novorussian noose around Debaltsevo and they are also trying to recapture the Donetsk airport.
Here are two SITREPS translated by the great Kazzura which I find interesting:
Prime Minister Zakharchenko
Corps commander Eduard Basurin
I am generally weary of triumphalism and I always get nervous when I see somebody underestimating the enemy. Most importantly, we should remember that while the Junta seems to be suffering major military losses, it still has two options available a false flag operation and declare war with Russia.
Option one: false flag
The worse the Junta's military defeats, the higher the risk of a major false flag. Keep in mind that the Nazi Junta despises the east Ukrainian which it considers as "bugs", "insects" and "subhumans" which should be barbecued and that it will have no pity for its own forces if they are defeated or, worse, disloyal. And remember the Nazi slogan about Crimea: "the Crimea will be Ukrainian or empty". We have to assume that the Nazi freaks in Kiev are capable of anything and, having already shot down a civilian airliner, I would not put it past them to sabotage a nuclear plant or some other very high risk target.
Option two: declare with with Russia
Notice, I did not say war "on Russia" because that would make the Junta the aggressor. But the Rada is quite capable tomorrow of declaring Russia an "aggressor state". And if that is not enough, Kiev is absolutely capable of striking (at least a few times) anywhere along the Russian-Ukrainian border (including in Crimea) in order to pull Russia in. Even if Russia does not take the bait and simply rides out the strikes, or if Russia responds with a very minimal amount of force, Kiev will continue to declare the "thousands" of Russian troops have invaded and that Russian "tactical battalion groups" are operating all along the line of contact. There is no way that Kiev will ever admit that its forces have been defeated by local Novorussian resistance fighters. In other words, any defeat of the Junta forces will always be presented as a "Russian aggression against the European choice of the free Ukrainian nation".
Folks like Yatseniuk or Turchinov will never just flee like Yanukovich did - before they do that, they will make darn sure to destroy as much of the Ukraine as possible and that happens to be exactly the US plan to: if Uncle Sam cannot have it, neither will anybody else.
This one is far from over
I therefore caution everybody against any premature triumphalism. It ain't over and it won't be over anytime soon. Even if the Novorussians comprehensively defeat the Junta forces (again!), this will not push their attack very far beyond the current frontlines (they just don't have the manpower for that). So don't expect the Novorussians to free Kiev and overthrown the Junta. That is something only the Ukrainian people themselves can do, and right now they are nowhere near that kind of outcome.
Things to look very, very bad for Kiev and the current tactical difficulties faced by the Junta might well result in an operational level collapse. At which point we can expect all sides except the Novorussians to try to revive some kind of stale and futile "peace process" which the Novorussians will have to accept, except that this time around Russia will probably make more demands then the first time around. Now that Putin has declared that the Junta's army what just "NATO's legion" the mood in Moscow is rather dark and the disgust with Poroshenko and all his lies very wide-spread. So even if Russia accepts another cease-fire, the Junta will have to pay a price for its failed assault. I think that the loss of Mariupol might be one of the conditions demanded by Russia (at least I hope so).
What about the imperial "Axis of Kindness"?
The Empire is in full combat mode. After George Soros, the US Commander of NATO ground forces has visited Kiev and the western credit rating agencies have further downgraded Russia even though every single objective economic indicator says otherwise. Things are a tad more complicated in Europe were the victory of Syriza in Greece will create a major risk for the future of the EU. Sure, Merkel is more then willing to do the USA's bidding, but her popularity suffers from it and tensions between the EU plutocrats and the European people are only on the rise. In France the entire Charlie Hebdo psyop has resulted in a chaotic and most volatile situation, the Polish nonsense about Auschwitz being liberated by Ukrainians has damaged the credibility of the russophobic camp and the awareness that the Kiev Junta and its supporters are bona fide Nazis is slowly but inexorably growing everywhere.
As Lincoln is supposed to have said "you can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time". Time is running out for the Nazi freaks in Kiev.
The Saker
Sunday, November 9, 2014
Ukraine SITREP November 9th, 22:25 UTC/Zulu: A creeping conflict
There is an interesting word in Russian: вялотекущий. It can be translated as "creeping" or "sluggish". It is composed of the word вяло which means "lethargically", or "torpidly" or "apathetic" and текущий which means to flow, to progress. This word comes to my mind when looking at the war in the Ukraine, it is progressing towards some kind of worsening, but it does so in a slouching, slowly creeping way.
Novorussian side
On the Novorussian side the recent elections did not solve the constant infighting between the various commanders. To my great regret, this nonsense is still going on. Bezler was removed from his command, Mozgovoi was told that his brigade had to be incorporated into the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF), which he gladly accepted, and that this would be done by breaking up his brigade into various units of the NAF, which he categorically rejected. Then there was the news that Zakharchenko had decorated Strelkov and Borodai as with the Medal of "Hero of the Donetsk People's Republic". Strelkov denied that adding that he would not take that medal from Zakharchenko anyway. The news was then "corrected" to say that this decision had been made about Bezler and Borodai. The blog of Colonel Cassad (http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/ - the most honest Russian-language blog on Novorussia IMHO) goes into exquisite details about all this nonsense and the English version of this site apparently has resumed translating his blog. You can find the English version here: http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/.
The good news is that while the Novorussians are fighting, the Russians are sending them huge amounts of weapons. The main difference with what Russia did in the past is that this time around the Voentrog is not done covertly at all and that these huge columns of trucks have been seen driving around the center of Donetsk, clearly in the hope that somebody would film or photograph them. The message to the Junta is clear - we are ready and we will support Novorussia. It appears that so far this new "semi-overt" style of support has deterred the Junta Repression Forces (JRF) from any major attacks.
Question for everybody: I have heard reports that columns of T-80 tanks has been spotted in Novorussia. Can somebody confirm whether this is true or not? So far, all the "T-80s" have turned out to be modification of the Ukrainian T-72, but the appearence of Russian T-80s could be significant because while not modern by Russian standards, most Russian T-80s have been retrofitted with modern electronics and fire systems. In other words, a modernized Russian T-80 would have a huge advantage over a Ukrainian T-72, specially an unmodified one.
I personally do not really care who of the Novorussian leaders is in command as long as it is one person. All of them have shown that they are competent military commanders so the question is a political one. Zakharchenko is by far the most legitimate political leader since he won the election, and he seems to most willing to do what the Kremlin wants which I consider a good thing. But this is also the reason why a lot of the other field commanders don't like him, especially Strelkov. But then again, Strelkov himself is far from being unanimously endorsed either and, besides, he is now out of the Novorussian political game since he now lives in Russia. The fact is that Novorussia cannot exist without Russian support, so my totally politically incorrect preference for the command of the NAF would be for a Russian general to be put in charge, but that ain't happening. Next best, somebody who will listen to a Russian general. But for the political command of Novorussia was is needed is a good administrator, a local Novorussian and a civilian capable of effectively interfacing with the military commanders. I personally liked Borodoi, but any guy close to the security services would do.
Why the security services? Because no real "democracy" is possible in a combat zone. So the next best thing is a pretend democracy where the democratically elected leader has some personal legitimacy, but is willing and capable of working closely with the military commanders and with the Kremlin. Sort of Borodai v2 I suppose. Alas, I don't see that happening anytime soon.
Ukieland aka Banderastan
The total chaos in continuing the the Nazi-occupied Ukraine. While the junta did succeed in bringing a lot of military power (man and gear) to the line of contact, no real attack has materialized. Besides the already well-know terror shelling of civilians in Donetsk, the new and rewamped JRF has not shown itself capable of anything yet. Could they do more?
Yes, definitely, they now have three things which they lacked before the Minsk agreement:
1) More firepower
2) More armor
3) Well defended sectors
These are good ingredients for a determined attack. The problem for them is, of course, that the NAF now also has more of these three categories. Finally, the NAF retains a very significant advantage in moral, tactical proficiency, local population support, knowledge of the terrain and reconnaissance. This, along with the repoening of the Voentorg spigot, might well explain the current Ukie lack of attack.
Russia
The big news for Russia is clearly the drop in the prices of oil and the drop in the value of the Ruble. Are the two linked? Yes, of course. While the general economic downturn worldwide did probably negatively impact the price of oil, there is little doubt that the AngloZionist Empire is using its influence to prevent the OPEC countries from cutting down on production. Is this strategy effective? Yes, definitely, but it also is very pricey, especially for the US shale gas industry. Cheap oil is also very good for China, so while Russia is hurting, China is getting a much needed boost. Worse for the AngloZionists, Russia and China are signing even more multi-billion dollar contracts but instead of dollars, they make them in Rouble-Renminbi.
Still, the worst problems for Russia are, beyond any doubt, self-inflicted. There is a reason why Russia has been so dependent for years on gas and oil exports: it is because the Russian economy has not been able to provide alternative sources of revenue and the reason for that is that the entire economic system adopted by Russia after 1991 has been designed to lock Russia into an "African" style of economy: Russia was allowed to export her raw materials and was told to import all the rest. How was that achieved? By telling the Russians to keep interest rates high, their savings invested in US T Bonds and keeping their main corporations incorporated abroad. Of course, none of that would have been possible without a faithful local comprador class imposing that system by its power of corruption on the rest of the country. The bottom line is that these sanctions primarily hurt Russia there were Russia is weak anyway, so in a sense you could say that these sanctions are acting like cattle-prods forcing the Russian state to very reluctantly go to its own salvation.
This is now a race against time. Who, of the USA or Russia, will have to cave in first and who will have the staying power to hold on to its objectives. Can you guess on whom I am betting? :-)
Conclusion
The situation in Novorussia is bad but not catastrophic. Russia will help Novorussia through the winter months and, hopefully, the infighting amongst the field commanders will eventually stop.
The situation in Ukieland is terrible and only getting worse. The Ukraine is now somewhere between the 4th and 5th Orlov Stages of Collapse. The recent gas deal with the EU and Russia changes nothing to that fact. We can begin to think of rump-Ukraine aka Banderastan aka Ukieland as something like a 'frozen Libya': a very dangerous, poor, violent wasteland run by thugs.
The situation for Russia is difficult, especially in the short term. The good news is that Russia is immensely wealthy with huge reserves of gold, currencies, natural resources and human capital and that Russia is politically extremely stable. The deep strategic alliance between Russia and China is, for both countries, the "ticket" out of the dependence upon the dollar and the way to true decolonization from the Empire.
As long as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jiping hold the course - and I believe they will - the Empire will continue to slowly erode.
The Saker
Novorussian side
On the Novorussian side the recent elections did not solve the constant infighting between the various commanders. To my great regret, this nonsense is still going on. Bezler was removed from his command, Mozgovoi was told that his brigade had to be incorporated into the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF), which he gladly accepted, and that this would be done by breaking up his brigade into various units of the NAF, which he categorically rejected. Then there was the news that Zakharchenko had decorated Strelkov and Borodai as with the Medal of "Hero of the Donetsk People's Republic". Strelkov denied that adding that he would not take that medal from Zakharchenko anyway. The news was then "corrected" to say that this decision had been made about Bezler and Borodai. The blog of Colonel Cassad (http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/ - the most honest Russian-language blog on Novorussia IMHO) goes into exquisite details about all this nonsense and the English version of this site apparently has resumed translating his blog. You can find the English version here: http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/.
 |
| Voentorg in action |
Question for everybody: I have heard reports that columns of T-80 tanks has been spotted in Novorussia. Can somebody confirm whether this is true or not? So far, all the "T-80s" have turned out to be modification of the Ukrainian T-72, but the appearence of Russian T-80s could be significant because while not modern by Russian standards, most Russian T-80s have been retrofitted with modern electronics and fire systems. In other words, a modernized Russian T-80 would have a huge advantage over a Ukrainian T-72, specially an unmodified one.
I personally do not really care who of the Novorussian leaders is in command as long as it is one person. All of them have shown that they are competent military commanders so the question is a political one. Zakharchenko is by far the most legitimate political leader since he won the election, and he seems to most willing to do what the Kremlin wants which I consider a good thing. But this is also the reason why a lot of the other field commanders don't like him, especially Strelkov. But then again, Strelkov himself is far from being unanimously endorsed either and, besides, he is now out of the Novorussian political game since he now lives in Russia. The fact is that Novorussia cannot exist without Russian support, so my totally politically incorrect preference for the command of the NAF would be for a Russian general to be put in charge, but that ain't happening. Next best, somebody who will listen to a Russian general. But for the political command of Novorussia was is needed is a good administrator, a local Novorussian and a civilian capable of effectively interfacing with the military commanders. I personally liked Borodoi, but any guy close to the security services would do.
Why the security services? Because no real "democracy" is possible in a combat zone. So the next best thing is a pretend democracy where the democratically elected leader has some personal legitimacy, but is willing and capable of working closely with the military commanders and with the Kremlin. Sort of Borodai v2 I suppose. Alas, I don't see that happening anytime soon.
Ukieland aka Banderastan
The total chaos in continuing the the Nazi-occupied Ukraine. While the junta did succeed in bringing a lot of military power (man and gear) to the line of contact, no real attack has materialized. Besides the already well-know terror shelling of civilians in Donetsk, the new and rewamped JRF has not shown itself capable of anything yet. Could they do more?
Yes, definitely, they now have three things which they lacked before the Minsk agreement:
1) More firepower
2) More armor
3) Well defended sectors
These are good ingredients for a determined attack. The problem for them is, of course, that the NAF now also has more of these three categories. Finally, the NAF retains a very significant advantage in moral, tactical proficiency, local population support, knowledge of the terrain and reconnaissance. This, along with the repoening of the Voentorg spigot, might well explain the current Ukie lack of attack.
[Sidebar: I have seen a lot of nonsense about Uncle Frost, General Winter, Jack Frost, etc. This is utter nonsense. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians (as if they were different) have fought wars in the winter for over 1000 years and they can very much do that again. Even in the Arctic (in the case of Russians). The Russians train in Siberia, on permafrost, in the Caucasus and, of course, in Central Russia's brutal winters and while extreme weather conditions of the Winter or Spring (the thaw) make that harder, they don't make that impossible at all. A Winter offensive is definitely possible, is less likely]On the political side, on the Ukie side the elections has also not settled anything and all the bigshots are busy fighting each other. Most of the "action" seems to take place around Kolomoiski, but there is plenty of hatred to go around for everybody.
Russia
 |
| the leaders of the free world |
Still, the worst problems for Russia are, beyond any doubt, self-inflicted. There is a reason why Russia has been so dependent for years on gas and oil exports: it is because the Russian economy has not been able to provide alternative sources of revenue and the reason for that is that the entire economic system adopted by Russia after 1991 has been designed to lock Russia into an "African" style of economy: Russia was allowed to export her raw materials and was told to import all the rest. How was that achieved? By telling the Russians to keep interest rates high, their savings invested in US T Bonds and keeping their main corporations incorporated abroad. Of course, none of that would have been possible without a faithful local comprador class imposing that system by its power of corruption on the rest of the country. The bottom line is that these sanctions primarily hurt Russia there were Russia is weak anyway, so in a sense you could say that these sanctions are acting like cattle-prods forcing the Russian state to very reluctantly go to its own salvation.
This is now a race against time. Who, of the USA or Russia, will have to cave in first and who will have the staying power to hold on to its objectives. Can you guess on whom I am betting? :-)
Conclusion
The situation in Novorussia is bad but not catastrophic. Russia will help Novorussia through the winter months and, hopefully, the infighting amongst the field commanders will eventually stop.
The situation in Ukieland is terrible and only getting worse. The Ukraine is now somewhere between the 4th and 5th Orlov Stages of Collapse. The recent gas deal with the EU and Russia changes nothing to that fact. We can begin to think of rump-Ukraine aka Banderastan aka Ukieland as something like a 'frozen Libya': a very dangerous, poor, violent wasteland run by thugs.
The situation for Russia is difficult, especially in the short term. The good news is that Russia is immensely wealthy with huge reserves of gold, currencies, natural resources and human capital and that Russia is politically extremely stable. The deep strategic alliance between Russia and China is, for both countries, the "ticket" out of the dependence upon the dollar and the way to true decolonization from the Empire.
As long as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jiping hold the course - and I believe they will - the Empire will continue to slowly erode.
The Saker
Saturday, September 20, 2014
Ukraine SITREP September 20, 23:34 UTC/Zulu: War or Peace?
[Quick note: I want to begin this SITREP with a correction to something which I mentioned in the last SITREP abouy General Bezler: even though his signature did appear to figure on the infamous statement of the four commanders declaring their loyalty to "General" Korsun, the information that he had been arrested is, according so sources qualified as "solid" by Colonel Cassad, not true. Since I have no reason to doubt Cassad's sources, I assume that this is true. I have no idea why/how Bezler's signature was found on this document, maybe it was a fake? Either way, Bezler even made a short video today making fun of Ukie not-so-special forces. In contrast, Korsun's arrest is apparently confirmed. Now let's turn to the SITREP proper - The Saker]
War?
The big event of the week was, I think, Poroshenko's speech to what I call the Imperial Senate (aka Joint Session of Congress). I have made the full transcript available here and here. I don't think that it is worth carefully parsing this text, so I will just mention the few elements which are absolutely obvious to me:
1) This text was written by a US Neocon. It even included such typical US-propaganda gimmicks as the "personal story" to give a human touch and moment carefully crafted to generate applause. So no only what the author of this rant American, but he/she was for sure a diehard Neocon.
2) This text was a lame attempt at copying Churchill's "Iron Curtain" speech, except that Poroshenko is no Churchill, Putin no Stalin and Novorussia no Soviet Union. Nonetheless, the message was clear: Russia represents a planetary threat to freedom, democracy, liberty, human right, free speech, etc. In fact, according to Poroshenko the choice is not between two civilizations but between civilization and barbaric darkness.
3) The US deep state is by now clearly aware of the immense challenge presented to it by Putin's "Eurasian Sovereignist" Russia and the movement it leads (BRICS+SCO+etc.). The fact that it has to use such absolutely over the top rhetoric is a clear sign of fear and the Neocons are now freaking out. The danger for them is becoming very real (more about that below).
4) More than anything else, this speech proved to me that the only viable goal for Russia is regime change in Kiev. This is a message I will hammer in over and over again - regime change in Kiev is a vital, arguable existential, priority for Russia.
5) Far from being any kind of patriots or nationalists, the Ukie "nationalists" are subservient puppets of the West, willing to service AngloZionist interests with less shame then a old prostitute services her clients. For all the "Glory to the Ukraine, to the Heroes Glory!" slogans, the Ukies are the cheapest prostitutes on the planet with no self-respect whatsoever.
The entire speech had a Disney-like feel to it: on one side, the forces of Light, lead by the USA in white shining armor and on the other, the forces of Darkness, lead by Russia crawling out of the Asian steppes like Lovecraft's Chtuhlu. Infantile to the extreme, the purpose of the speech was to induce a planetary war against Russia and her allies or, at the very least, to contain that 21st century Mordor. Poroshenko went as far as referring to now completely disproved lies (such as Russia invading Georgia in 2008) and hinting that Moldova, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Baltic States, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria. could/would be next. Clearly the main can lie with an ease which any used car salesman would envy.
Then there is the issue of the standing ovations. Less than Obama and less than Netanyahu, but still a lot (12 I think). The Imperial Senators appeared to stand longer and clap harder each time Poroshenko drifted off into some kind of crazy nonsense. A scary sight, really.
Now we all know who runs the US Congress (AIPAC) so what this is, really, is a declaration of war by AIPAC and the Zionist faction of the AngloZionist Empire. The Anglos are far less enthusiastic as shown by Obama's refusal to send weapons to the Ukies. Just like in 2008 and that other lunatic - Saakashvili - I get the feeling that there might be a lot of behind the scenes Neocon "parallel diplomacy" going on. If not, why would Obama's bosses tell Poroshenko to ask for weapons they don't want to give him in the first place? My guess is that there is a lot of reluctance in the Pentagon and possibly in the intelligence community to get the USA fully committed behind a regime which might not be around in a few months.
Whatever may be the case, Poroshenko's speech felt like an infantile but nasty declaration of war. Clearly, there are those who are very concerned that peace might break out
Peace?
Version 1:
On the "peace front" a number of interesting things happened. First, on September 14th sixteen business representatives from the USA, Russia, Germany and the Ukraine met for a private meeting with the Chairmen of the World Economic Forum Klaus Schwab. In attendance were some very big player including the hyper-notorious Anatolii Chubais (for a complete list or participants, see here). They adopted the following document:
(You can also download the document from here.) The publication of this document resulted in something as predictable as it was amazing. The "Putin is selling out Novorussia" choir immediately denounced this document as a total betrayal of Novorussia and a victory for the oligarchs. I said that this was a predictable reaction because by now it is pretty clear that these folks will denounce any and all negotiated documents (Agreement, Memoranda, Treaty or any other type) as a "sellout of Novorussia", "victory for the oligarchs" and "capitulation by Putin". Still, what was absolutely amazing to me that apparently they seem to notice #6:
Now, I understand that the Ukies broke every single document they signed so far, and this one will be no exception. But what is crucial here is that the message from "top finance" is not Poroshenko's hysterical call to arms before the Imperial Senate, but "no crazy laws, self-determination, no NATO". This is a HUGE victory for Russia who sees a Ukrainian membership in NATO as a major threat. Conversely, this WEF Initiative is a nightmare come true for the Neocons as it finalizes, if it is applied of course, the non-NATO status for the Ukraine.
True, this document speaks of a unitary Ukrainian state (apparently unless and until the right of self-determination trumps that) and it is full with well-meaning generalities. But point #6 is absolutely amazing coming, as it does, from the trans-national plutocrats which signed it. And yes, will Chubais' friend recommend an non-block status for the Ukraine, the Ukie Rada is abrogating its nonaligned while Timoshenko demands and entry into NATO.
Finally, keep in mind that this is an "initiative" which does not commit the Ukraine or Russia to anything. At most, this is a declaration of desirable principles, a basis for negotiation if you want.
Version 2:
The other big event of the week is signing of the Minsk Memorandum. Here is the full text:
Unlike the vague and, frankly, un-implementable Minsk cease-fire agreement, this Memorandum provides some perfect reasonable standards by which to measure compliance by both parties. Some points are politically correct nonsense (#9) but most of this text can be summarized as following: a "freezing" of the conflict along the line of contact. Is that good or bad?
Depends whom you ask.
Strelkov immediately denounced that Memorandum in the strongest possible terms. According to Strelkov, this is a victory for the "betrayal" camp lead by Surkov who has deceived Putin and is now pushing him into a Milosevic-type of scenario. In contrast, Zakharchenko, obviously, full backs the plan. So let's look a bit closer to this Memorandum.
For one thing, and that is important, it contains exactly zero political provisions. None. So the first rather obvious point that I would like to make is that this plan is very limited in scope: all it does is provide the basis for a mechanism to achieve a more or less verifiable ceasefire. Period. So if the Minks Ceasefire Agreement was list of vague and unenforceable (I would even argue undefined) general political statements, this document is the extreme opposite: a purely technical tool which really codifies the current situation on the ground.
So what is the political context in which this ceasefire will have to be observed? What is the point of the ceasefire?
Well, again, that depends whom you ask.
According to Poroshenko and other Ukrainian officials it is to give time to the Junta Repression Forces (JRF) to regroup, reorganize and prepare for a counter-attack. Strelkov would agree. Zakharchenko and Lavrov disagree. While they observe and denounce the Ukie preparations for a possible (likely? inevitable?) counter-attack, their official position is that the Agreement and the Memorandum are now binding documents useful in preparation for a final status negotiations. At this point Zakharchanko speaks of a completely independent Ukraine and Lavrov of a neutral Ukraine respectful of all its citizens.
I suggest we take it step by step.
First, long before we got to this point, we used to have heated debates on this blog about whether time was on the Russia, Novorussian or Ukie side. At the time, most commentators, including myself, were of the opinion that time was most definitely on Russia's side, but the question was if Novorussia could survive long enough. Basically, we wondered if Novorussia could stay alive long enough for Banderastan to collapse, or whether the only way to save Novorussia from a Nazi takeover was an overt Russian military intervention in the Donbass. Some of us even spoke of weeks.
Now, several months later, we see that not only did Novorussia not collapse under a Nazi takeover, but that the Novorussian Armed Forces gave a magnificent thrashing to the JRF and instead of getting encircled in Donetsk and Lugkans, the NAF pushed the JRF all the way out to Mariupol. At the very least, this proves that
1) Those who said that a Russian military intervention was the only way to save Novorussia were wrong: Novorussia survived.
2) Those who said that there was no Russian covert aid or that this aid was insufficient were wrong again: Voentorg is thriving (named after a military store, "voentorg", which literally means "military trade", here refers to the Russian covert aid to Novorussia)
Furthermore, at the time everybody agreed that things could only get worse for Banderastan, especially when the Fall and Winter would begin. As far as I know, there is still nobody predicting a miraculous turn-around in the Ukie economy so we can assume that all that Banderastan did was get so much closer to the inevitable economic and social cliff. And, indeed, the cracks are visible all over, AngloZionist aid or not.
I think that basic logic tells us that time is still on Russia's side and that the Ceasefire Agreement, this time supported by a Memorandum, solves the time problem for Novorussia: with aid from Russia freely flowing in (both over humanitarian aid and covert, "voentorg", aid) Novorussia can now sit tight and wait. The cold season will not only exacerbate the economic-social tensions in Banderastan, it will also make offensive operations much harder.
What about the opportunity costs?
In economics there the notion of "opportunity costs". These are the costs you do not incur directly (you don't have to pay anything), but these are the "costs" resulting from missed opportunities. Income you could have made, but did not.
Is Novorussia incurring such opportunity costs as the result of this peace?
That depends on your hypothesis.
There are those who believe that the NAF could if not make it to Kiev, then at least liberate Mariupol, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and other cities. I agree that Mariupol was about to fall, but only at great risk of envelopment from the north. As for other cities, I personally don't believe that is true. Even Slaviansk is quite out of reach, at least for the time being. Some say that a collapse of the JRF would have left the road open to Kiev. While true in one sense (some units might have used to panic to make it that far), this is a typically civilian idea of warfare. "Getting there" can be easy, of course, but it's *staying* there typically turns into a nightmare. I do not believe that by early September the NAF had the capabilities to breakout much beyond their current areas of deployment and to successfully liberate much more territory.
Furthermore, I do not believe that a purely military solution is achievable, especially not one which has Novorussians "liberating" central or, even less so, western Ukraine. I know that my hatemail will go through the roof, but I will say that I think that freezing the frontline on September 19th is a pretty good deal, especially since that removes the single biggest "distraction" in internal Ukie politics: the so-called "Russian invasion".
There are also those who say that the Russian military could liberate most, or even, all of the Ukraine. I agree. Militarily, this is a no-brainer. But by doing so Russia would provide the Neocons with their ultimate dream: a Cold War v2 for many decades to come. Pragmatically, this would be a disastrous decision. But the moral aspect is even more important here. As far as I am concerned, and setting aside all my sympathy for the people of Novorussia who have fought for their freedom and, I am now convinced of it, will get it, Russia owes the Ukraine absolutely nothing. Not gas, not loans and most definitely not the lives of Russian soldiers. There is no reason I can think of why a young man from Moscow, Tobolsk or Makhachkala has to sacrifice is life liberating Banderastan from the local Nazis. No, sorry, the Ukrainians have to free themselves. It is the hight of hypocrisy to spend decades whining about the Moskals and then expect them to come a liberate you from your own Nazi freaks.
The people of Donetsk and Lugansk have shown that they, like the folks of Crimea or South Ossetia, are truly deserving of Russian help, even if that means that Russian young men should die, as happened in South Ossetia. And I would note here that South Ossetian man are now fighting as volunteers for Novorussia, so the Ossetians have proven beyond any doubt that they were fighting for.
But the folks in the rest of (historical) Novorussia?
Did you hear about the uprising in Mariupol? Right. Neither did I. What about the partisans around Zaporozhie or Chernigov? Same thing. Well, in reality, this is not quite true and not really fair. First, the Nazis are using terror to subdue the locals in these cities and, second, there have been a few actions here and there. But if Strelkov was speaking the truth when he said that most young men in Donetsk and Luganks were quite happy to sip beer and watch the events on their idiot-boxes, this is even much more true of the rest of the Ukraine. Even senior NAF commander admitted that their strength was in the fact that the NAF were liberators, but that the further they would go west, the more they would be seen not as liberators but as occupiers (and, believe me, the propaganda on Ukie TV is nothing short of unimaginable: according the Ukie officials who speak on Ukie TV on a daily basis, Russia is already occupying the Ukraine with, last time I heard, 19 battalion tactical groups!)
Every one is free to have his/her opinion and I cannot prove that I am right simply because hypotheticals are, by definition, unprovable. But my personal belief is that freezing the line of contact on the 19th is reasonable and that the ceasefire benefits everybody more than the regime in Kiev (which is why I expect it to be broken even more than it already is). Furthermore, I submit that these are the fundamental objectives of the key parties to this civil war:
1) Russia: regime change in Kiev (long term goal: years)
2) Novorussia: de-facto full independence from Kiev (short term goal: months)
3) rest of the Ukraine: liberation and full de-Nazificaton (long term goal: years)
The current situation is favorable for #1 and #2.
What about the warning from Strelkov: that this ceasefire agreement is like the one reached in Croatia which gave the Croats time to prepare a counter-attack with their NATO masters and (illegally) occupy the Serbian Krajinas?
For all my sympathy and admiration for Strelkov, I think that he is plain wrong.
For one thing, the Serbs in the Krajinas had their heavy weapons under UN guard and when the Croats and their NATO masters attacked, UNPROFOR was ordered by the US to get the hell out of the way and UPROFOR meekly complied (trust me, I followed that situation minute-by-minute, literally). Furthermore, Milosevic also betrayed the Croatian Serbs and he did not provide support from Bosnia were the Federal Army had several brigades (who later also dumped the Bosnian Serbs). Crimea is protected by the most powerful nuclear arsenal on the planet and by the most powerful single landforce in Eurasia. Unlike the Serbian Krajinas, Crimea is ideal to defend (as history shows). The notion of the Ukies coming from the land, sea or air to occupy Crimea is ludicrous to the extreme. A JRF which got comprehensively defeated by the NAF cannot take on the Russian military. As for the USN, it can show the flag all over the Black Sea, but every USN officer knows that the Black Sea is one big trap from which you don't want to fight Russia.
What about Novorussia then? Could the JRF in theory rearm and successfully attack Donetsk and Lugansk? In theory yes, but in practice as long as Putin is in the Kremlin, Russia will never allow the Ukie to take over these two republics. If they tried, the "voentorg" (which, by the way, has not been stopped by the Agreement or Memorandum) will go through the roof and "volunteers" from Russia would come streaming in. And yes, if left no other choice, and facing a "do it or lose it" situation, the Kremlin will order the Russian military to initiate what will, no doubt, be presented as a "temporary and limited peace-enforcement operation to restore the mutually agree upon line of demarcation of September 19th, 2014" or some equally inane formula which, in practical terms, will simply mean "you got 48 hours to smash the Ukie forces". It will probably take less than 24. Then the Russians will go right back across the border and ask that the OSCE attest to that withdrawal. The West will choke with rage, but it shall be too late. Just like Russia basically disarmed Saakashvili in 3 days of combat, Russia can, and will, disarm Poroshenko, Iarosh, Timoshenko or any other Ukie freak who will try to capture Donetsk or Lugansk.
So is there a conspiracy? A behind-the-scenes secret deal?
Probably not. But I bet you that there is a mutual understanding. The US tells Russia "don't you dare take Kiev" and Russia replies "don't you dare take the Donetsk and Luganks Republics". Neither side commits to anything, but it "just so happens" that neither dare is called. Having said that, both sides also see that short of these red lines the rest is fair game. Hence, the US props up Kiev and Russia props up Novorussia. Sure, the Neocons in the USA are absolutely incensed, and the "hurray-patriots" (there is such a Russian term) in Russia are also furious. The armchair generals on both sides (Liashko, Dugin) offer many "simple" plans on how they would win it all if they were in the White House or the Kremlin. In the meantime, the military commanders in the Pentagon and in the Russian General Staff quietly try to make sure that this war stays local and does not force the "Big Guys" into a real world war.
The main risk is that there is a faction inside the US deep state which correctly identifies the political threat posed by Russia's overt and unapologetic defiance of US policies as an existential threat for the AngloZionist Empire. These guys, Neocons or old Anglo Imperialists, want to play a game of chicken with Russia and they are convincing themselves that Russia must, and will, blink at the last second and back down. The Russian response is very complex one: to give the appearance of backing down without really giving up anything. Like when the Russians had to "cave in" to US threats and disarm Syria form its chemical arsenals. At the time, the Putin is selling out Syria" choir immediately denounced this document as a a betrayal and as a proof that Putin and Obama are, in reality, working hand in hand. Some even continue to clamor today that "if Assad had chemical weapons" the US would never dare to attack him (forgetting that Saddam also had chemical weapons and that this did not help him at all). Now, in hindsight, we know that these nay-sayers (I am being nice and polite here) were wrong, 100% wrong, but at the time their laments and outraged denunciations sounded credible.
To be truly honest, I can understand their feelings. I even wrote on this blog that my biggest fear is that Putin would turn out to be yet another Milosevic. In fact, I had predicted that the Russians would intervene and I was quite surprised and, frankly, appalled when they did not. That was when Donetsk and Lugansk were almost surrounded and their fall looked likely. My brain told met that this would not happen, but I had a knot in my stomach and I could barely think of anything at all besides the tragic events in Novorussia. Yet, this time again, just as with Syria, Putin did "deliver": Russia's covert aid turned the tide and what looked like an imminent collapse of all of Novorussia (especially after the retreat of Strelkov from Slaviansk!) turned into a unbelievable defeat for the Ukie forces. Again, those who seriously believe that this amazing turn of events happened by itself rather then as the direct result of a strategic decision taken in Moscow just don't understand warfare, sorry. Russia's covert aid (weapons, men, intelligence, advisors) made this NAF counter-offensive possible and if Putin wanted to "sell out" Novorussia all he had to do is nothing at all. That would have done the trick just fine. Instead Russia embarked on a remarkable and highly effective to achieve two apparently mutually exclusive results: to deny the AngloZionists the war they so badly wanted and to deny the Ukies the victory they so badly wanted.
No wonder they so passionately hate Putin and Russia :-)
So where do we go from here?
As usual, I will simply admit that I don't know (which is not bad, considering that many folks seem not to even know where we currently are). There are too many variables. Those who tried the MH17 false flag might come up with something just as disgusting and as crazy. So far, on the US side, it look like the Pentagon is successful in preventing the Neocons from seriously committing the US behind Poroshenko. Speaking of Poroshenko, he is much safer in the US than at home. For him, things are about to get much tougher and much uglier. Right now, literally anything can happen in Banderastan, I cannot call that one at all.
Assuming the Ukies don't launch a Fall or Winter offensive (how crazy would that be?! but then they are pretty crazy...), Novorussia will be fine, courtesy of a strong NAF and plenty of Russian aid. Hopefully, the crazy infighting amongst the Novorussian elites will eventually stop. In Russia proper, Strelkov can be the perfect spokesman to 1) hold Putin's feet to the fire and 2) help Putin further gradually suppress the Atlantic Integrationists. Crimea's future looks as bright as can be.
Which leaves Russia under sanctions. Short term - the sanctions are definitely going to hurt Russia. Mid-term, Russia will do just fine as long as these sanctions are used as an opportunity to finally embark on some much needed reforms. There is no risk of a "nationalist Maidan against Putin" (there never was), but the fight against the oligarchs will continue (not only were there rumors, later denied, that Evtushekov had been free, but so far the investigation of the corruption scandal under Serdiukov and his mistress Evgenia Vassilievna has gone nowhere). There are still plenty of pro-Western Atlantic Sovereignists in Moscow and even inside the Kremlin and it will take a lot of time and effort to suppress their constantly subversive and, frankly, sabotaging efforts.
That's it for today folks, I hope that this was useful. Sorry for the long post. All I can say in my defense is that I barely scratched the surface of it all (I good, solid Ukrainian SITREP could easily be 30-50 pages long, though in real life politicians want their reduced to 3-4 paragraphs on one sheet of paper; no wonder they then take stupid decisions!).
Kind regards to all and have a wonderful week-end!
The Saker
PS: a friend just emailed me to let me know that Russia, China plan sign new 30 year gas deal via 2nd route! So much for the "isolation" of Russia :-)
War?
The big event of the week was, I think, Poroshenko's speech to what I call the Imperial Senate (aka Joint Session of Congress). I have made the full transcript available here and here. I don't think that it is worth carefully parsing this text, so I will just mention the few elements which are absolutely obvious to me:
1) This text was written by a US Neocon. It even included such typical US-propaganda gimmicks as the "personal story" to give a human touch and moment carefully crafted to generate applause. So no only what the author of this rant American, but he/she was for sure a diehard Neocon.
2) This text was a lame attempt at copying Churchill's "Iron Curtain" speech, except that Poroshenko is no Churchill, Putin no Stalin and Novorussia no Soviet Union. Nonetheless, the message was clear: Russia represents a planetary threat to freedom, democracy, liberty, human right, free speech, etc. In fact, according to Poroshenko the choice is not between two civilizations but between civilization and barbaric darkness.
3) The US deep state is by now clearly aware of the immense challenge presented to it by Putin's "Eurasian Sovereignist" Russia and the movement it leads (BRICS+SCO+etc.). The fact that it has to use such absolutely over the top rhetoric is a clear sign of fear and the Neocons are now freaking out. The danger for them is becoming very real (more about that below).
4) More than anything else, this speech proved to me that the only viable goal for Russia is regime change in Kiev. This is a message I will hammer in over and over again - regime change in Kiev is a vital, arguable existential, priority for Russia.
5) Far from being any kind of patriots or nationalists, the Ukie "nationalists" are subservient puppets of the West, willing to service AngloZionist interests with less shame then a old prostitute services her clients. For all the "Glory to the Ukraine, to the Heroes Glory!" slogans, the Ukies are the cheapest prostitutes on the planet with no self-respect whatsoever.
The entire speech had a Disney-like feel to it: on one side, the forces of Light, lead by the USA in white shining armor and on the other, the forces of Darkness, lead by Russia crawling out of the Asian steppes like Lovecraft's Chtuhlu. Infantile to the extreme, the purpose of the speech was to induce a planetary war against Russia and her allies or, at the very least, to contain that 21st century Mordor. Poroshenko went as far as referring to now completely disproved lies (such as Russia invading Georgia in 2008) and hinting that Moldova, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Baltic States, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria. could/would be next. Clearly the main can lie with an ease which any used car salesman would envy.
Then there is the issue of the standing ovations. Less than Obama and less than Netanyahu, but still a lot (12 I think). The Imperial Senators appeared to stand longer and clap harder each time Poroshenko drifted off into some kind of crazy nonsense. A scary sight, really.
Now we all know who runs the US Congress (AIPAC) so what this is, really, is a declaration of war by AIPAC and the Zionist faction of the AngloZionist Empire. The Anglos are far less enthusiastic as shown by Obama's refusal to send weapons to the Ukies. Just like in 2008 and that other lunatic - Saakashvili - I get the feeling that there might be a lot of behind the scenes Neocon "parallel diplomacy" going on. If not, why would Obama's bosses tell Poroshenko to ask for weapons they don't want to give him in the first place? My guess is that there is a lot of reluctance in the Pentagon and possibly in the intelligence community to get the USA fully committed behind a regime which might not be around in a few months.
Whatever may be the case, Poroshenko's speech felt like an infantile but nasty declaration of war. Clearly, there are those who are very concerned that peace might break out
Peace?
Version 1:
On the "peace front" a number of interesting things happened. First, on September 14th sixteen business representatives from the USA, Russia, Germany and the Ukraine met for a private meeting with the Chairmen of the World Economic Forum Klaus Schwab. In attendance were some very big player including the hyper-notorious Anatolii Chubais (for a complete list or participants, see here). They adopted the following document:
(You can also download the document from here.) The publication of this document resulted in something as predictable as it was amazing. The "Putin is selling out Novorussia" choir immediately denounced this document as a total betrayal of Novorussia and a victory for the oligarchs. I said that this was a predictable reaction because by now it is pretty clear that these folks will denounce any and all negotiated documents (Agreement, Memoranda, Treaty or any other type) as a "sellout of Novorussia", "victory for the oligarchs" and "capitulation by Putin". Still, what was absolutely amazing to me that apparently they seem to notice #6:
Guarantee the security and sovereignty of Ukraine by the international community. Recognize the supremacy of international law above national interests. Recognize the right of self-determination but encourage to consider a policy of military non-alignment for Ukraine, comparable to the status of other European countries (i.e. Finland, Sweden, Switzerland). Amazingly, but the nay-sayers managed to completely miss the fact that 1) Ukie laws which contravene the EU Convention on Human Rights (including Protocol 12 on minority rights) and the UN Charter (whose Article 1 and others specifically uphold the right of self-determination) could be overruled 2) that the Ukies were told to recognize the right of self-determination (not just federation, but open-ended self determination) and 3) that the Ukies were told that they will have to remain neutral and non-aligned.And that, coming form Chubais & Co!
Now, I understand that the Ukies broke every single document they signed so far, and this one will be no exception. But what is crucial here is that the message from "top finance" is not Poroshenko's hysterical call to arms before the Imperial Senate, but "no crazy laws, self-determination, no NATO". This is a HUGE victory for Russia who sees a Ukrainian membership in NATO as a major threat. Conversely, this WEF Initiative is a nightmare come true for the Neocons as it finalizes, if it is applied of course, the non-NATO status for the Ukraine.
True, this document speaks of a unitary Ukrainian state (apparently unless and until the right of self-determination trumps that) and it is full with well-meaning generalities. But point #6 is absolutely amazing coming, as it does, from the trans-national plutocrats which signed it. And yes, will Chubais' friend recommend an non-block status for the Ukraine, the Ukie Rada is abrogating its nonaligned while Timoshenko demands and entry into NATO.
Finally, keep in mind that this is an "initiative" which does not commit the Ukraine or Russia to anything. At most, this is a declaration of desirable principles, a basis for negotiation if you want.
Version 2:
The other big event of the week is signing of the Minsk Memorandum. Here is the full text:
Unlike the vague and, frankly, un-implementable Minsk cease-fire agreement, this Memorandum provides some perfect reasonable standards by which to measure compliance by both parties. Some points are politically correct nonsense (#9) but most of this text can be summarized as following: a "freezing" of the conflict along the line of contact. Is that good or bad?
Depends whom you ask.
Strelkov immediately denounced that Memorandum in the strongest possible terms. According to Strelkov, this is a victory for the "betrayal" camp lead by Surkov who has deceived Putin and is now pushing him into a Milosevic-type of scenario. In contrast, Zakharchenko, obviously, full backs the plan. So let's look a bit closer to this Memorandum.
For one thing, and that is important, it contains exactly zero political provisions. None. So the first rather obvious point that I would like to make is that this plan is very limited in scope: all it does is provide the basis for a mechanism to achieve a more or less verifiable ceasefire. Period. So if the Minks Ceasefire Agreement was list of vague and unenforceable (I would even argue undefined) general political statements, this document is the extreme opposite: a purely technical tool which really codifies the current situation on the ground.
So what is the political context in which this ceasefire will have to be observed? What is the point of the ceasefire?
Well, again, that depends whom you ask.
According to Poroshenko and other Ukrainian officials it is to give time to the Junta Repression Forces (JRF) to regroup, reorganize and prepare for a counter-attack. Strelkov would agree. Zakharchenko and Lavrov disagree. While they observe and denounce the Ukie preparations for a possible (likely? inevitable?) counter-attack, their official position is that the Agreement and the Memorandum are now binding documents useful in preparation for a final status negotiations. At this point Zakharchanko speaks of a completely independent Ukraine and Lavrov of a neutral Ukraine respectful of all its citizens.
I suggest we take it step by step.
First, long before we got to this point, we used to have heated debates on this blog about whether time was on the Russia, Novorussian or Ukie side. At the time, most commentators, including myself, were of the opinion that time was most definitely on Russia's side, but the question was if Novorussia could survive long enough. Basically, we wondered if Novorussia could stay alive long enough for Banderastan to collapse, or whether the only way to save Novorussia from a Nazi takeover was an overt Russian military intervention in the Donbass. Some of us even spoke of weeks.
Now, several months later, we see that not only did Novorussia not collapse under a Nazi takeover, but that the Novorussian Armed Forces gave a magnificent thrashing to the JRF and instead of getting encircled in Donetsk and Lugkans, the NAF pushed the JRF all the way out to Mariupol. At the very least, this proves that
1) Those who said that a Russian military intervention was the only way to save Novorussia were wrong: Novorussia survived.
2) Those who said that there was no Russian covert aid or that this aid was insufficient were wrong again: Voentorg is thriving (named after a military store, "voentorg", which literally means "military trade", here refers to the Russian covert aid to Novorussia)
Furthermore, at the time everybody agreed that things could only get worse for Banderastan, especially when the Fall and Winter would begin. As far as I know, there is still nobody predicting a miraculous turn-around in the Ukie economy so we can assume that all that Banderastan did was get so much closer to the inevitable economic and social cliff. And, indeed, the cracks are visible all over, AngloZionist aid or not.
I think that basic logic tells us that time is still on Russia's side and that the Ceasefire Agreement, this time supported by a Memorandum, solves the time problem for Novorussia: with aid from Russia freely flowing in (both over humanitarian aid and covert, "voentorg", aid) Novorussia can now sit tight and wait. The cold season will not only exacerbate the economic-social tensions in Banderastan, it will also make offensive operations much harder.
What about the opportunity costs?
In economics there the notion of "opportunity costs". These are the costs you do not incur directly (you don't have to pay anything), but these are the "costs" resulting from missed opportunities. Income you could have made, but did not.
Is Novorussia incurring such opportunity costs as the result of this peace?
That depends on your hypothesis.
There are those who believe that the NAF could if not make it to Kiev, then at least liberate Mariupol, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and other cities. I agree that Mariupol was about to fall, but only at great risk of envelopment from the north. As for other cities, I personally don't believe that is true. Even Slaviansk is quite out of reach, at least for the time being. Some say that a collapse of the JRF would have left the road open to Kiev. While true in one sense (some units might have used to panic to make it that far), this is a typically civilian idea of warfare. "Getting there" can be easy, of course, but it's *staying* there typically turns into a nightmare. I do not believe that by early September the NAF had the capabilities to breakout much beyond their current areas of deployment and to successfully liberate much more territory.
Furthermore, I do not believe that a purely military solution is achievable, especially not one which has Novorussians "liberating" central or, even less so, western Ukraine. I know that my hatemail will go through the roof, but I will say that I think that freezing the frontline on September 19th is a pretty good deal, especially since that removes the single biggest "distraction" in internal Ukie politics: the so-called "Russian invasion".
There are also those who say that the Russian military could liberate most, or even, all of the Ukraine. I agree. Militarily, this is a no-brainer. But by doing so Russia would provide the Neocons with their ultimate dream: a Cold War v2 for many decades to come. Pragmatically, this would be a disastrous decision. But the moral aspect is even more important here. As far as I am concerned, and setting aside all my sympathy for the people of Novorussia who have fought for their freedom and, I am now convinced of it, will get it, Russia owes the Ukraine absolutely nothing. Not gas, not loans and most definitely not the lives of Russian soldiers. There is no reason I can think of why a young man from Moscow, Tobolsk or Makhachkala has to sacrifice is life liberating Banderastan from the local Nazis. No, sorry, the Ukrainians have to free themselves. It is the hight of hypocrisy to spend decades whining about the Moskals and then expect them to come a liberate you from your own Nazi freaks.
The people of Donetsk and Lugansk have shown that they, like the folks of Crimea or South Ossetia, are truly deserving of Russian help, even if that means that Russian young men should die, as happened in South Ossetia. And I would note here that South Ossetian man are now fighting as volunteers for Novorussia, so the Ossetians have proven beyond any doubt that they were fighting for.
But the folks in the rest of (historical) Novorussia?
Did you hear about the uprising in Mariupol? Right. Neither did I. What about the partisans around Zaporozhie or Chernigov? Same thing. Well, in reality, this is not quite true and not really fair. First, the Nazis are using terror to subdue the locals in these cities and, second, there have been a few actions here and there. But if Strelkov was speaking the truth when he said that most young men in Donetsk and Luganks were quite happy to sip beer and watch the events on their idiot-boxes, this is even much more true of the rest of the Ukraine. Even senior NAF commander admitted that their strength was in the fact that the NAF were liberators, but that the further they would go west, the more they would be seen not as liberators but as occupiers (and, believe me, the propaganda on Ukie TV is nothing short of unimaginable: according the Ukie officials who speak on Ukie TV on a daily basis, Russia is already occupying the Ukraine with, last time I heard, 19 battalion tactical groups!)
Every one is free to have his/her opinion and I cannot prove that I am right simply because hypotheticals are, by definition, unprovable. But my personal belief is that freezing the line of contact on the 19th is reasonable and that the ceasefire benefits everybody more than the regime in Kiev (which is why I expect it to be broken even more than it already is). Furthermore, I submit that these are the fundamental objectives of the key parties to this civil war:
1) Russia: regime change in Kiev (long term goal: years)
2) Novorussia: de-facto full independence from Kiev (short term goal: months)
3) rest of the Ukraine: liberation and full de-Nazificaton (long term goal: years)
The current situation is favorable for #1 and #2.
What about the warning from Strelkov: that this ceasefire agreement is like the one reached in Croatia which gave the Croats time to prepare a counter-attack with their NATO masters and (illegally) occupy the Serbian Krajinas?
For all my sympathy and admiration for Strelkov, I think that he is plain wrong.
For one thing, the Serbs in the Krajinas had their heavy weapons under UN guard and when the Croats and their NATO masters attacked, UNPROFOR was ordered by the US to get the hell out of the way and UPROFOR meekly complied (trust me, I followed that situation minute-by-minute, literally). Furthermore, Milosevic also betrayed the Croatian Serbs and he did not provide support from Bosnia were the Federal Army had several brigades (who later also dumped the Bosnian Serbs). Crimea is protected by the most powerful nuclear arsenal on the planet and by the most powerful single landforce in Eurasia. Unlike the Serbian Krajinas, Crimea is ideal to defend (as history shows). The notion of the Ukies coming from the land, sea or air to occupy Crimea is ludicrous to the extreme. A JRF which got comprehensively defeated by the NAF cannot take on the Russian military. As for the USN, it can show the flag all over the Black Sea, but every USN officer knows that the Black Sea is one big trap from which you don't want to fight Russia.
What about Novorussia then? Could the JRF in theory rearm and successfully attack Donetsk and Lugansk? In theory yes, but in practice as long as Putin is in the Kremlin, Russia will never allow the Ukie to take over these two republics. If they tried, the "voentorg" (which, by the way, has not been stopped by the Agreement or Memorandum) will go through the roof and "volunteers" from Russia would come streaming in. And yes, if left no other choice, and facing a "do it or lose it" situation, the Kremlin will order the Russian military to initiate what will, no doubt, be presented as a "temporary and limited peace-enforcement operation to restore the mutually agree upon line of demarcation of September 19th, 2014" or some equally inane formula which, in practical terms, will simply mean "you got 48 hours to smash the Ukie forces". It will probably take less than 24. Then the Russians will go right back across the border and ask that the OSCE attest to that withdrawal. The West will choke with rage, but it shall be too late. Just like Russia basically disarmed Saakashvili in 3 days of combat, Russia can, and will, disarm Poroshenko, Iarosh, Timoshenko or any other Ukie freak who will try to capture Donetsk or Lugansk.
So is there a conspiracy? A behind-the-scenes secret deal?
Probably not. But I bet you that there is a mutual understanding. The US tells Russia "don't you dare take Kiev" and Russia replies "don't you dare take the Donetsk and Luganks Republics". Neither side commits to anything, but it "just so happens" that neither dare is called. Having said that, both sides also see that short of these red lines the rest is fair game. Hence, the US props up Kiev and Russia props up Novorussia. Sure, the Neocons in the USA are absolutely incensed, and the "hurray-patriots" (there is such a Russian term) in Russia are also furious. The armchair generals on both sides (Liashko, Dugin) offer many "simple" plans on how they would win it all if they were in the White House or the Kremlin. In the meantime, the military commanders in the Pentagon and in the Russian General Staff quietly try to make sure that this war stays local and does not force the "Big Guys" into a real world war.
The main risk is that there is a faction inside the US deep state which correctly identifies the political threat posed by Russia's overt and unapologetic defiance of US policies as an existential threat for the AngloZionist Empire. These guys, Neocons or old Anglo Imperialists, want to play a game of chicken with Russia and they are convincing themselves that Russia must, and will, blink at the last second and back down. The Russian response is very complex one: to give the appearance of backing down without really giving up anything. Like when the Russians had to "cave in" to US threats and disarm Syria form its chemical arsenals. At the time, the Putin is selling out Syria" choir immediately denounced this document as a a betrayal and as a proof that Putin and Obama are, in reality, working hand in hand. Some even continue to clamor today that "if Assad had chemical weapons" the US would never dare to attack him (forgetting that Saddam also had chemical weapons and that this did not help him at all). Now, in hindsight, we know that these nay-sayers (I am being nice and polite here) were wrong, 100% wrong, but at the time their laments and outraged denunciations sounded credible.
To be truly honest, I can understand their feelings. I even wrote on this blog that my biggest fear is that Putin would turn out to be yet another Milosevic. In fact, I had predicted that the Russians would intervene and I was quite surprised and, frankly, appalled when they did not. That was when Donetsk and Lugansk were almost surrounded and their fall looked likely. My brain told met that this would not happen, but I had a knot in my stomach and I could barely think of anything at all besides the tragic events in Novorussia. Yet, this time again, just as with Syria, Putin did "deliver": Russia's covert aid turned the tide and what looked like an imminent collapse of all of Novorussia (especially after the retreat of Strelkov from Slaviansk!) turned into a unbelievable defeat for the Ukie forces. Again, those who seriously believe that this amazing turn of events happened by itself rather then as the direct result of a strategic decision taken in Moscow just don't understand warfare, sorry. Russia's covert aid (weapons, men, intelligence, advisors) made this NAF counter-offensive possible and if Putin wanted to "sell out" Novorussia all he had to do is nothing at all. That would have done the trick just fine. Instead Russia embarked on a remarkable and highly effective to achieve two apparently mutually exclusive results: to deny the AngloZionists the war they so badly wanted and to deny the Ukies the victory they so badly wanted.
No wonder they so passionately hate Putin and Russia :-)
So where do we go from here?
As usual, I will simply admit that I don't know (which is not bad, considering that many folks seem not to even know where we currently are). There are too many variables. Those who tried the MH17 false flag might come up with something just as disgusting and as crazy. So far, on the US side, it look like the Pentagon is successful in preventing the Neocons from seriously committing the US behind Poroshenko. Speaking of Poroshenko, he is much safer in the US than at home. For him, things are about to get much tougher and much uglier. Right now, literally anything can happen in Banderastan, I cannot call that one at all.
Assuming the Ukies don't launch a Fall or Winter offensive (how crazy would that be?! but then they are pretty crazy...), Novorussia will be fine, courtesy of a strong NAF and plenty of Russian aid. Hopefully, the crazy infighting amongst the Novorussian elites will eventually stop. In Russia proper, Strelkov can be the perfect spokesman to 1) hold Putin's feet to the fire and 2) help Putin further gradually suppress the Atlantic Integrationists. Crimea's future looks as bright as can be.
Which leaves Russia under sanctions. Short term - the sanctions are definitely going to hurt Russia. Mid-term, Russia will do just fine as long as these sanctions are used as an opportunity to finally embark on some much needed reforms. There is no risk of a "nationalist Maidan against Putin" (there never was), but the fight against the oligarchs will continue (not only were there rumors, later denied, that Evtushekov had been free, but so far the investigation of the corruption scandal under Serdiukov and his mistress Evgenia Vassilievna has gone nowhere). There are still plenty of pro-Western Atlantic Sovereignists in Moscow and even inside the Kremlin and it will take a lot of time and effort to suppress their constantly subversive and, frankly, sabotaging efforts.
That's it for today folks, I hope that this was useful. Sorry for the long post. All I can say in my defense is that I barely scratched the surface of it all (I good, solid Ukrainian SITREP could easily be 30-50 pages long, though in real life politicians want their reduced to 3-4 paragraphs on one sheet of paper; no wonder they then take stupid decisions!).
Kind regards to all and have a wonderful week-end!
The Saker
PS: a friend just emailed me to let me know that Russia, China plan sign new 30 year gas deal via 2nd route! So much for the "isolation" of Russia :-)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
