Nino Burdzhanadze: Georgia's best - if not last - hope?

On July 9th, the famous Georgian politician Nino Burdzhanadze gave a 45min long interview to the Russian radio station Ekho Moskvy in which she made quite a few interesting revelations. Among other things she revealed that Putin had specifically told the Georgian leaders that should they attack the Russian peacekeepers in Ossetia Russia would launch a rescue operation and send more troops into Ossetia. He also warned that if Georgia attacked Russia would recognize the two breakaway republics. Furthermore, Burdzhanadze revealed that Saakashvili had “advisers” who convinced him that it would be easy to beat the Russian forces and their, quote, 'rusting tanks'. Lastly, she told the reporter that as soon as the Georgians attacked Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov called Saakashvili many times and but the Georgians refused to pick up the phone. If all this is true, and there is no reason to think otherwise, it puts an end to the discussion about which side was the aggressor in this war.

This, in itself, is already very interesting, but what I want to discuss here is Burdzhanadze's views on how to normalize relations with Russia again.

Burdzhanadze clearly recognizes that the current status of Georgian-Russian relations is one of a total impasse: Russia wants nothing to do with the Saakashvili while the latter is turning into a dictator with rather obvious mental issues. But this goes beyond Saakashvili. No Georgian leader can possibly recognize the independence of Ossetia or Abkhazia. Likewise, no Russian politician can argue for the reversal of Russia's recognition of these two republics and hope to have any kind of political future. Furthermore, in order to make sure that the events of the 08.08.08 never happen again, Russia has now deployed military forces in these republics, including two military bases (at least). All the external signs show that Russia and Georgia are locked into a zero-sum game in which neither side has any room to maneuver or, even much less so, to compromise. Burdzhanadze, who is clearly a highly intelligent person, also recognizes these facts, and she openly admits that the way out from the current impasse will be a difficult and slow one, yet she thinks that this is possible. How?

First, she is a proponent of multilevel negotiations with Moscow. To make such talks politically acceptable, she speaks of “red lines” which she is not willing to cross: the territorial integrity and the fundamental interests of Georgia. What is really interesting here is that when she is reminded that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's point of view is diametrically opposed (he says that the recognition of these two republics is done deal and not a topic Moscow will ever discuss), she refers to a very important, yet little known, statement by Prime Minister Putin who said, on the record, that “Russia will always support any solution agreed upon between the two sides” meaning that if, and that is admittedly a big “if”, Abkhazia and/or Ossetia could negotiate some kind of mutually acceptable status agreement with Tbilisi Moscow would support it. In other words, not only does the Kremlin not oppose direct negotiations between Ossetia/Abkhazia and Georgia, it actually promises to recognize any outcome acceptable to Moscow's allies. Interesting, no?

Burdzhanadze goes further in her analysis. She says that there are two preconditions which absolutely must be met before the Ossetians and Abkhazians even begin to contemplate any kind of serious negotiations with Georgia:

1. They need to be absolutely convinced, beyond any doubt at all, that Georgia will never attack them again.
2. They need to find positive reasons to deal with Tbilisi. In other words, Georgia must not coerce these two republics, but attract them.

Burdzhanadze does not go into any details as to how to reach the first goal, but she does address the second issue in some details. To make her point, she begins by asking the following rhetorical question: “When the Abkhazians or Ossetians look across the border and see Georgia, what do they see? They see an economy which has totally collapsed, they see a ruthless dictatorship which crushes the opposition with brutal violence and mass arrests. They see a regime which continues to combine jingoistic militarism with an hostile and aggressive rhetoric. In other words, they see exactly the opposite of what could motivate them to begin serious negotiations with Tbilisi”. She is, of course, absolutely right: before anything can happen, even at a purely symbolic level, Saakashvili must go. There is simply no way around that.

The Kremlin has unambiguously stated that it will never deal with Saakashvili whom it considers a “arrogant petty thug” (отморозок in Russian). In contrast, Nino Burdzhanadze was received with full honors in Moscow were she had long – and cordial – meetings with Foreign Minister Lavrov and Prime Minister Putin. Even more interesting is the fact that Dimitri Rogozin, Russia's representative to NATO, has stated that he had information indicating that the US is also quietly trying to find ways to replace Saakashvili with Burdzhanadze. I would submit that the latter is very plausible, not only because Saakashvili was primarily the darling of the Republican Neocons, but also because Obama's puppeteers probably realize that in the long term Saakashvili is a disaster for US influence and reputation in the entire region. Even Washington does not want to bet on a loosing horse.

From the point of view of Washington, Burdzhanadze is actually a very good choice. As soon as the Saakashvili dictatorship collapses, Georgia will need all the help it can get and the USA will not want to be associated solely with the regime which threw the Georgian economy back by at least two decades and was responsible for one of the worst disasters in military history. Uncle Sam needs to look good, democratic and economically relevant – none of which can be achieved while Saakashvili remains in power but which happens to nicely coincide with Burdzhanadze's political program.

If Burdzhanadze can come to power with the support of both Russia and the USA she will have a lot of political capital to bring to the negotiating table with the Abkhaz and Ossetian side.

But there is more here, something which Burdzhanadze never openly said – a least to my knowledge – but which is strongly implied by her general approach to this issue. The best context for negotiations between Georgia and the breakaway republics would be one in which Moscow and Tbilissi also seriously negotiate the status of their future relations. Think about it,

Historically, Russia and Georgia have had very close ties. One could argue that Georgia today would not even exist had it not been for the protection which Russia gave it in the 18^th century against its numerous foes. The history of Georgia is an ancient and highly tragic one in which the Georgian people suffered horrifically from the never-ending stream of various Muslim invaders (Mongols, Arabs, Seljuk-Turks, Persians, Ottomans) who usually attempted to crush the Georgian national spirit and eradicate its ancient Orthodox Christian faith. In modern times, the history of Georgia has been tragic too. Following an almost endless decade of internal conflicts the country was left in ruins and roughly 30% of all Georgians currently live in Russia from where these exiles send much needed money back to their country of origin.

And yet, in contrast to, say, the Chechens, Georgians have always been rather popular in Russia and even the recent succession of anti-Russian leaders (Gamsakhurdia, Shevardnadze, Saakashvili) have not fundamentally altered this perception. Even more amazing is the fact that while many Russians do resent Jews for their key role in the Bolshevik regime and its genocidal terror, few Russians resent the “Georgian Mafia” which replaced many – but not all – of the Bolshevik Jews when Stalin came to power. Somehow, Russians seem to be unable to muster much of an anti-Georgian sentiment in themselves. Why is this so important? Because most Russians are probably willing to forgive Georgia for the 08.08.08 war and turn the page. That is also something which Burdzhanadze can capitalize on.

Unlike Saakashvili, who is clearly totally ignorant of history, Burdzhanadze is keenly aware of the fact that history is her ally. She probably also realizes that Georgia is very important to Russia, probably more than Ossetia or Abkhazia. Not only has Georgia provided a crucial safe-heaven for Chechen insurgents, but keeping forces on high alert to protect Abkhazia and Ossetia is, no doubt, a burden for the Southern Region Military Command and costly for the Russian military. Furthermore, a friendly Georgia would stop being a potential US/NATO deployment area and it would bring a great deal of stability to the entire Black Sea region. Lastly, Russia and Georgia have an important economic collaboration potential which has essentially been neglected since Georgia became an independent country. So while Georgia is small, it is not irrelevant at all to Russian interests.

What does all this mean for the long term? That Russia and Georgia would both immensely benefit from some kind of economic and political integration and that this type of integration would be the ideal backdrop for a deal between Georgia, Ossetia and Abkhazia. After all, as soon as these countries stop seeing their relations as a zero-sum game and realize that collaboration is the way out for everybody what is unthinkable today might become inevitable tomorrow. Jingoistic militarism, nationalist propaganda and armed struggles have only brought misery and impoverishment to the entire region and a comprehensive and long-lasting peace is now the top priority for every country, region or ethnicity of the Caucasus. Burdzhanadze understands that the first step towards achieving such a peace is to finally establish a real, functional, democracy in Georgia (and Russia, I would add).

I know, Burdzhanadze has a, shall we say, “checkered past” (she is a former ally of Saakashvili), and Uncle Sam does have a amazing ability to do dumb things, even if that objectively hurts US interests. And it is by no means certain that Russian leaders fully understand how important it is to develop meaningful civil and democratic rights in the Russian Caucasus rather than just rely on putatively “pro-Russian“ thugs. As for Saakashvili, he is armed to the teeth, he owns the police and security forces, and he is likely to fight ruthlessly to stay in power. Yes, the future of Georgia looks very bleak indeed. But listening to Burdzhanadze at least gives me some hope that the future is not hopeless, that another future is at least possible.

 

The Saker

Russian Air Force strikes military bases and airfields across Georgia (UPDATED)

Russian and Georgian sources are reporting Russian Air Force strikes on Georgian military facilities throughout Georgia. The port of Poti has also reportedly been bombed. Several Georgian aircraft were destroyed on the Marneuli air base near the Georgian capital Tbilissi. The Vaziani military base (25 km from the capital) was also bombed. The airport of Bolnisi is reported "destroyed" by Georgian sources.

In the meantime, Russian sources are reporting that the Russian Air Force has provided strong close air support to Russian peacekeeping units.

UPDATE 1 - Press TV reports:

Georgian authorities evacuate the presidential building and other government offices in the capital Tbilisi fearing Russian bombardments.

The statement was made by a top Georgian official, National Security Council Secretary Alexander Lomaia, on Saturday, AFP reported.

Lomaia said, "We have received reports from our defense ministry that five Russian military aircraft have taken off from Russia's North Caucasus region heading for Tbilisi." He said that was the reason why the decision was made straight away to evacuate the president's administration and a number of other important government agencies.

Lomia also added that the Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili had been evacuated from the presidential building to a secure location. He went on to say that the president was about to declare a state of emergency over the next few hours and that the documents were on his desk to be signed.

This is while Georgian officials claimed that Russian planes on Friday allegedly bombed a military airport in Marneuli, the port of Poti and a railway junction and an airport in Senaki.

NATO encouraged Georgia – Russian envoy

Russia Today reports:

NATO encouraged Georgia

Russia’s envoy to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, has sent an official note to representatives of all member countries in Brussels in connection with Georgia’s military actions against South Ossetia. He’s calling on them not to support Mikhail Saakashvili.

“Russia has already begun consultations with the ambassadors of the NATO countries and consultations with NATO military representatives will be held tomorrow," Rogozin said. "We will caution them against continuing to further support of Saakashvili."

Rogozin says Georgian aggression against South Ossetia is obvious.

“It is an undisguised aggression accompanied by a mass propaganda war,” he said.

Rogozin has linked Friday’s onslaught to the support given to Saakashvili at the recent NATO summit in Bucharest. At the meeting, Rogozin says, it “was hinted Georgia has prospects in NATO.”

South Ossetia close to humanitarian disaster – Russian FM

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says he hopes Georgia’s Western partners take note of what has happened in South Ossetia and draw conclusions.

“It all confirms our numerous warnings addressed to the international community that it is necessary to pay attention to massive arms purchasing by Georgia during several years. Now we see how these arms and Georgian special troops who had been trained by foreign specialists are used,” he said.

Condi Rice and Sergei Lavrov had THREE phone calls today

According to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Condi Rice had three telephone conversations just today. Its pretty clear who the real parties to the conflict are, isn't it?

South Ossetians retake capital

This just in from Interfax (via Press TV):

South Ossetian separatists say they are in complete control of the capital Tskhinvali more than 24 hours into a major Georgian military offensive.

The statement was made by South Ossetian spokeswoman, Irina Gagloyeva on Friday, the Interfax news agency reported.

"The entire city of Tskhinvali is currently controlled by units of South Ossetia's defense forces... The Georgian side is trying to regain control of southern suburbs of Tskhinvali", Gagloyeva said.

On Friday, Georgian authorities and South Ossetian rebels gave conflicting claims of full control of the capital amid the heavy Georgian bombardment which has so far killed at least 10 Russian peacekeepers.

Appeal to the world of the South Ossetian Government

Appeal to the Governments and peoples of the world!

Please, help us stop genocide of the small people of the South Ossetia!

The small country, which has been constantly destroying for 19 years by Georgian fascists.
And the world community conceal all the atrocities of Georgia for the sake of geopolitical interest of the USA.

Conflict resolution is completely in international law. However, the Georgian side skillfully uses methods of historical falsifications, political insinuations. Georgia enjoys the patronage of a criminal government of the USA, and presents events in the world misrepresented.

At the moment the most part of South Ossetia is erased by the Georgian aggressors. There continue to die elderly, women, children. The death toll is unknown, because of the Georgian side fired them all who tried to help the wounded. Children are among them.

Not comparable with anything Georgian cruelty let know even in 91-92 years.

When Georgians at point-blank range shot civilians of South Ossetia, as the example of the bus which was driving with people on bypass road, Zar. No one will forget it! Georgian fascists made all people go out, from the bus and fired them. They also fired point-blank women and children and kids . They fired even the little three-year-old boy, who hid away under the body of his mother.

What else can we say of Georgia?

They buried people alive, burnt them and tortured them in different methods. After all that the world community is silent and Georgians continue to kill. Saakashvili doesn’t feel sorry for anybody, even for his Georgians. For him, the notion of "people" and "meat" is not much different and probably, he prefers more the second.

There is only one way for peace - it is declaration of the independence by the world community. We call on all decent people of the world not to remain indifferent to the fate of the Ossetian people.

Georgia vs. South Ossetia - an overview

by Ilya Kramnik for RIA-Novosti

The very real possibility of full-scale war between Georgia and South Ossetia raises questions about its possible outcome.

At present, the Georgian armed forces have more than 30,000 men, including 20,000 ground forces. They are equipped with more than 200 tanks, including 40 T-55s and 165 T-72s, which are currently being upgraded. Apart from tanks, the ground forces have 200 combat armored vehicles, including about 180 infantry combat vehicles and armored personnel carriers (APCs). The ground troops can receive artillery support from 120 artillery pieces of 122 mm-152 mm caliber, 40 multiple-launch rocket systems, and 180 mortars.

The Georgian Air Force is equipped with five Su-25 (Frogfoot) close support aircraft, 15 L-29 and L-39 combat training aircraft, which can be used as light assault planes, and 30 helicopters, including eight MI-24 attack helicopters.

Available estimates put the South Ossetian forces at a mere 2,500 officers and men, or 16,000, including reservists. They are armed with 15 T-55 and T-72 tanks, 24 Gvozdika and Akatsiya self-propelled artillery units, 12 D-30 towed howitzers, six multiple-launch rocket systems, four 100-mm Rapir anti-tank weapons, and more than 30 mortars. In addition, the South Ossetian army has 22 infantry combat vehicles, 24 APCs, and six combat patrol vehicles.

The infantry is equipped with small arms of Soviet or Russian make, and has several dozen Fagot and Konkurs anti-tank rocket systems. Its air force consists of four MI-8 multi-purpose transport helicopters. South Ossetia can defend itself against air attacks with four to six Osa, three Tunguska, three Shilka, and six Strela-10 air defense rocket systems. It also has 12 23-mm ZU-23/2 twin antiaircraft guns (some of which are mounted on GAZ-66 trucks), and up to 100 Igla and Strela man-portable air-defense missiles.

A forecast of the outcome of this war (as well as a potential conflict with Abkhazia) cannot be based on mathematics alone. In the mountains, even a very small unit can resist a numerically much stronger enemy. In this case, the outcome of the conflict will primarily depend on the training of forces and the influence of third parties.

The training of the Georgian army is not likely to have changed much in the last two months and, with the exception of a few units, it is not rated too high. Like the Abkhazian armed forces, Ossetian armies are better trained and motivated. Moreover, the Abkhazian leader has already expressed readiness to support South Ossetia in a war against Georgia.

Georgia can win only if it is backed by the United States and its other allies. And even with such support, its victory will mean heavy losses, and entail lengthy guerilla warfare.
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Commentary:Kramnik does a decent job of comparing the capabilities of Georgia and the South Ossetian separatists. What this analysis overlooks, probably very deliberately, is what role Russia could play in the conflict.

My guess is that Saakashvili gravely miscalculated Russia's reaction. Only yesterday a presumably expert analyst wrote "what will Russia do if there is a military strike against South Ossetia? Directly, I suspect it will do very little. It should be completely ruled out that Russia will use military force". Clearly - he was wrong.

The strongest indication that Russia fully means business is the fact that the C-in-C of the Russian Ground Forces has set up a special operative HQ in Vladikavkaz to personally take charge of all Russian military operations. There is absolutely no need for such an arrangement if all that Russia intends to do is sent in a single column of APC and some tanks into South Ossetia.

One should also keep in mind that the Russians have been warning about the Georgian military preparations right across the South Ossetian/Georgian border for weeks now. This means that the Georgian attack was not a surprise for the Russians and that they had plenty of time to prepare.

It appears that, at least for the time being, the South Ossetian resistance has managed to hold on to at least parts of the city of Tskhinvali and that the Georgians have not acheived their objectives. Considering that the South Ossetians are heavily out-numbered and out-gunned it is way too early to conclude that the Georgian forces have been defeated.

What could Russia do if the Georgian attack continues?

1) Close the airspace over South Ossetia
2) Deploy an Airborne troops inside Tskhinvali
3) Strike at Georgian positions threatening Tskhinvali

Does that sound extreme?

Keep in mind that Russia did ask for the immediate intervention of the UNSC but in vain - the US and the UK predicabtly quietly supported the Georgian attack. Since Russian peacekeepers were killed (and some executed in cold blood), Russia now has the right to use military force in self-defense and my guess is that Moscow is fully prepared to do so.

As I said above, I believe that Saakashvili badly miscalculated and that he will pay dearly for his mistake. Whether the current military conflict lasts any longer or not - he has clearly made himself a total enemy of Moscow and I expect the Russians to use all their resources, including economic, political and covert, to get rid of him.

The Saker

Massive Georgian military assault on South Ossetia (UPDATED!)

I am currently following the events in South Ossetia and the situation is developing very rapidly. Here is a summary of what has happened so far.

1) Georgian special forces have taken over 11 villages around the South Ossetian capital Tshinvali. They then proceeded to take over several high points around the city from were a massive artillery barrage was initiated.

2) Artillery strikes were supported by airstrikes. Images shown on Russian TV clearly show three SU-25 strike aircraft strafing positions near the HQ of the peacekeeping forces.

3) As a result of these strikes most of the city of Tshinvali is now in ruins.

4) Georgian forces have entered the city.

5) The Georgian President Saakashvili as ordered a full mobilization of Georgian armed forces.

6) Russian peacekeeping forces in South Ossetia were fired upon by Georgian multiple rocket launchers; the HQ of the Russian battalion was hit, there are casualties, including fatalities.

7) There is fighting going on in Tshinvali; most of the civilians and hiding underground.

8) Russia's rep to the UNSC has called for an urgent meeting of the UNSC. The meeting took place, nothing was decided.

9) Both Medvedev and Putin have publicly promised that the Georgian agression will be defeated.

10) Cossak volunteers from various regions of southern Russia have taken the decision to send volunteers to South Ossetia.

11) At least one Russian armored column from the North Caucaus military district has entered Tshinvali today.

12) Parts of Tshinvali have been re-taken by Russian forces. Fighting still rages inside the city

In case anyone has any doubts about what is going on here: a US-financed and supported puppet regime has actually started a full-scale war against Russia (including Russian peacekeeping forces). Georgia is only a candidate for NATO membership. Can you imagine what this kind of regime will do once it enjoy the full protection of NATO?

13) Georgian "peacekeepers" have executed their wounded former Russian colleagues with whom they were supposed to jointly patrol the region and secure the peace.

14) President Medvedev has gathered the Russian Security Council and has made a live TV appearance in which is declared that he is obligated by the Russian Constitution to defend the lives and dignity of all Russian citizens regardless of their location (most South Ossetians are Russian nationals). President Medvedev has promised that those responsible for the current aggression will be punished.

15) The Russian Armed Forces have established a special headquarters near Vladikavkaz; this operational command is headed by the C-in-C of the Russian ground forces.

I will keep up updating this blog as the situation develops.

16) Following an appeal by the Mayor of Khasaviurt (Dagestan) a force of Dagestani volunteers is being formed to protect Ossetians from the Georgian invasion.

17) Statement on the Situation in South Ossetia by the Russian President Dimitry Medvedev:

As you know, Russia has maintained and continues to maintain a presence on Georgian territory on an absolutely lawful basis, carrying out its peacekeeping mission in accordance with the agreements concluded. We have always considered maintaining the peace to be our paramount task. Russia has historically been a guarantor for the security of the peoples of the Caucasus, and this remains true today.

Last night, Georgian troops committed what amounts to an act of aggression against Russian peacekeepers and the civilian population in South Ossetia. What took place is a gross violation of international law and of the mandates that the international community gave Russia as a partner in the peace process.

Georgia’s acts have caused loss of life, including among Russian peacekeepers. The situation reached the point where Georgian peacekeepers opened fire on the Russian peacekeepers with whom they are supposed to work together to carry out their mission of maintaining peace in this region. Civilians, women, children and old people, are dying today in South Ossetia, and the majority of them are citizens of the Russian Federation.

In accordance with the Constitution and the federal laws, as President of the Russian Federation it is my duty to protect the lives and dignity of Russian citizens wherever they may be.

It is these circumstances that dictate the steps we will take now. We will not allow the deaths of our fellow citizens to go unpunished. The perpetrators will receive the punishment they deserve.

18) Reuters reports: Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said on Friday that Russia was fighting a war with his country and that Georgians were "looking with hope" to America, but he did not specifically appeal for U.S. help. "We have Russian tanks moving in. We have continuous Russian bombardment since yesterday ... specifically targeting the civilian population," Saakashvili said in an interview with CNN. "Russia is fighting a war with us in our own territory."

Russian forces rolled into Georgia's breakaway South Ossetia region and were approaching its capital, Tskhinvali, on Friday, Russia's RIA news agency quoted a Russian military commander as saying.

"This was a very blunt Russian aggression. ... We are right now suffering because we want to be free and we want to be a multiethnic democracy," Saakashvili said in the interview. Saakashvili, whose country is pushing to join NATO, said the conflict "is not about Georgia anymore. It's about America, its values."

"I ... thought that America stands up for those freedom-loving nations and supports them. That's what America is all about. That's why we look with hope at every American," the U.S.-educated president said.

So there, we have it: Saakashvili is counting on the USA and NATO to military engage the Russian in defense of "American values".

19) Russian TV is reporting the following: Georgian special operation forces are being pushed back in heavy clashes with local Ossetian self-defense forces. At least three Georgian MBT and two APC have been abandoned burning in the city. Bombing raids are being observed coming from the north (which seems to hint, however indirectly, that this time Russian Air Force units might be participating in the combats). Russia has closed all air traffic between Russian and Georgia (this is not a military measure, but an economic retaliation measure - VS)

Presidents Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdniestria interviewed by Russia Today TV