Overview of the Situation in the Donbass Region – August 24, 2014
Translated by Daniel Mikhailovich
Edited by Olga Luzanova
Edited by Olga Luzanova
The Fighting in the Coastal Area
Even
recently, it might have seemed laughable, but today the fighting has
begun in the area of Novoazovsk, where a powerful anti-aircraft defense
node and a hodgepodge of different units of questionable combat
capability have been stationed since April to cover the border with
Russia. After the Southern Encirclement 2.0 was created, the Militiamen
began to probe the other checkpoints to the south-west of Marinovka, and
were surprised to find out that there are almost no defenses. All the
forces were drawn up to the main front line, creating a gap to the south
of Amvrosievka, which was only partially covered with the covering
forces. At first, the Militia’s saboteur-reconnaisance groups (“SRG”)
began to infiltrate to the south-west, which has led to the capture of
the "Uspenka" border checkpoint. After that, the Militia broke-out to
the coast, as there were no serious forces of the Junta. As a result,
several SRGs moved almost to Novoazovsk and the towns of Holodnoe and
Sedovo, firing and attacking some checkpoints.
The
Militia obviously doesn't have enough forces there to seize and hold
the towns (let alone capturing Novoazovsk or Mariupol); but judging by
the reports that a bomb shelter has been opened in Mariupol, the command
of the Junta in this area lost their nerve. It is not only that the
gap along the border continues to expand, there is also a threat (even
if remote for now) to Novoazovsk and Mariupol; as there are few Junta's
forces there, and nobody knows what can appear from across the border.
Moreover, the gap in the front, to the south of Amvrosievka, also does
not seem optimistic. In general, what is happening now is not yet an
offensive with definite goals, but just a distracting raid in the rear
of the enemy, which turned out to be an unpleasant surprise for the
Junta. To be honest, very few people expected the fighting on the coast
of the Sea of Azov to start so soon. In general, the trend is
favorable for us.
Ilovaysk
Today
near Ilovaysk the Junta has continued its attempts "to break through
the wall with its head", sending almost all of the combat-ready forces
to attack Ilovajsk. The attack bogged down even before the Junta talking
heads could declare that Ilovajsk has been taken once again. This is a
very weird stubbornness, given that a more effective plan would
involve encircling and taking Mospino, and the gaps in the front to the
south of Amvrosievka. The strategic point of the attack is long gone; it
is an attempt to reverse the situation with insufficient forces -
because even if by some miracle the Junta takes the ruins of Ilovaysk
and pushes out the Militia, it will not go beyond one tactical success
against the backdrop of the bleak strategic situation.
Saur-Mogila, Schachtersk and Torez
Fighting
continued, with both sides largely staying on their positions. The
Junta’s mechanized units tried to move towards Miner and Thorez, but
didn’t make it far.
Theoretically,
these battles are good for the Militia, as the Junta spends reserves
there quite aimlessly. That has made the punitive battalions (volunteer
units made up of activists/neo-nazis/released criminals) suspect that
the Junta command deliberately drives the southern battlegroup into a
meat grinder. (That is one version - that they are agents of the Kremlin
- another, because that is how Poroshenko gets rid of radical
elements). All in all, another week or so of such operations, and the
Junta there will be in for a surprise. Southern Encirclement 2.0 has
held out so far, but the Junta losses and the Militia trophies there
will be considerable - the Militia is currently attacking on Dyakovo and
offering the surrounded forces the same conditions as before - retreat
to Russia, leaving the vehicles to the Militia.
Donetsk
In
the north of Donetsk the Junta seems absolutely exhausted, only
pretending that the failed offensive is proceeding via
the SRGs' forces and continuing shelling; whereas the self-defense
Militia forces managed to start an offensive towards Uglegorsk which,
although not yet taken, hardly looks like a springboard for the Junta's
attack on Yenakievo anymore. The Militia will try to take it in the
coming days to protect Gorlovka and Yenakievo and prevent the bisection
Donetsk-Gorlovka battlegroup. In general, it is now possible to say
conclusively that the attack on Donetsk has failed, and there is no
direct threat to the city. And the enemy was not merely driven from
Yasinovataya and back to Uglegorsk. In the area of Zhdanovka there
was another mini-encirclement, and the Junta salient in the area of
Verhnyaya and Nizhnyaya Krynka has been wiped out, with the Militia
taking captives and trophies. The front is gradually approaching
Debalcevo, which is one of the priority objectives for the Militia.
Debalcevo
To the
north of Debalcevo, the self-defense forces delivered an unexpected
blow to the Junta, towards the north-west, with the result that the
forward units were able to move to the vicinity of Severodonetsk. There
were overly optimistic statements that the Militia had been about to
take back Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, but in fact, there is a lack of
Militia forces there, and taking two major cities at once would be quite
problematic, especially with the advance SRGs alone. The weakness of
the Junta's forces in this area provides various options for offensive
action - the fact is that most of the Junta battlegroup that took
Lisichansk from the Militia were later moved to other areas - some units
moved towards Debalcevo and Yasinovataya, some left for Schast’e and
Stanitsa Luganskaya. As a result, the Militia found a weak spot and
delivered a nasty blow that led to a breakthrough in the front. The main
thing is that this breakthrough, and the raid of saboteur-reconnaisance
groups by the coast, demonstrates that the operational depth of the
enemy forces is not high. After breaking after through the enemy front
in weak areas, the Militia is able to act in the operational vacuum,
where the enemy has practically no reserves. But due to lack of
strength, those nasty (for the Junta) breakouts have not yet led to
decisive results. It is clear that if the Militia had dedicated 15-20
tanks, as many BMPs and 200-300 infantry to one of these gaps, then it
would have taken the cities in the rear of the enemy. But for now the
Militia do what they can.
Lugansk
The
Junta offensive against Lugansk failed. The enemy has been driven off
from Hryaschevatoe; they are still holding by Novosvetlovskaya, but this
is a purely defensive action. The self-defense militia forces have
already started an offensive against Lutugino and Chast’e. The loss of
either one of these would be a complete disaster for the battlegroup
besieging Lugansk, as it would be dissected into several parts; although
some of it is actually in operational encirclement even now. Today,
predictably, there was an attack from the south in the Volnuhino area,
and as a result, there is a direct threat to Lutugino; there are already
militia combat recon groups on the outskirts. The general meaning of
combat here is that if the militia take back Lutugino, they will then be
able to fully control the route Lugansk-Krasny Luch, which would
greatly enhance the connectivity of Novorossiya’s territory and the
coordination of its armed forces. In this regard, Lutugino and Debalcevo
are the key nodes of the transport network in the region, and control
over them is a part of the struggle for the operational initiative.
In
general, the situation, even though it is still difficult, is obviously
improving. In a number of areas, the militia are now on the offensive,
while the Junta offensive has petered out and stoped almost everywhere.
Original article: Colonel Cassad
Map of Operations, August 10-25, 2014 – Created by Kot Ivanov and Anthony Hartin
Translated by Daniel Mihailovitch
Edited by S. Naylor
Edited by S. Naylor
Official Briefing from the DPR, as of August 25, 2014, and Commentary
Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
From: Semen Semenchenko(commander of the Ukrainian Donbass punitive battalion)
To: The Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Valeriy Geletey.
To the ATO(Anti-Terrorist
Operation)* command. Despite the numerous warnings about the situation
that is currently unfolding in sector B, despite the information from
yesterday and today about the tank breakthrough from sector D and also
from the border with the Russian Federation, from the area of Mospino,
the situation with regards to sending us additional units of the
UAF(Ukraine Armed Forces) was never resolved. Currently it is necessary
to stop the retreat of the units that up until now covered our rear.
Those units that report to your HQ, from the area of
Kuteynikovo-Starobeshevo, must return the artillery and to perform a
massive counterattack into the area [of the breakthrough], and to use
armored vehicles in this attack. You do have these forces. If this does
not get done and the situation will continue to deteriorate. I reserve
the right to interpret the lack of activity of the UAF leadership in the
most negative light. If needed – you personally must stand with a
pistol on the road and take control of the situation. Act, finally, act!
P.s. Please forgive me. I cannot write what exactly is happening right now. You are not the only one reading this.
Official DPR Briefing, as of August 25, 2014
Original: DNR.Today
In
the course of the offensive operation, the militia forces have
completely destroyed the government military base in Sedovo, and routed
all the enemy checkpoints around Sedovo and Novoazovsk. There's an
ongoing sweep of these two cities for remaining Junta forces. Taking
control of Novoazovsk will open a direct road to Mariupol for the DPR
army forces, and we plan to take this city in the near future.
Fierce
fighting is happening near the Svyato-Uspensky Nikolo-Vasilyevsky
monastery (village Nikolskoye of Volnovaha district). In the settlement
of Markino there is fighting against the entrenched militants of the
punitive battalions "Dnieper-1" and "Donbass". The LPR militia conducted
a recon by combat action on Lutugino. There is information that the
town of Rodakovo has been taken [by our units].
According
to the data of the DPR Ministry of Defense HQ, the government forces
lost 110 people KIA and 75 WIA fighting for Ilovaysk. 28 military
vehicles were destroyed or disabled. By the morning of August 25th, yet
another (third) battlegroup of the enemy was also fully encircled in the
area of the settlements Stepanovka, Amvrosiyevka and Stepano-Krynka.
The
whole night militia forces were focused on narrowing the encirclement
around the two blockaded Ukrainian battlegroups in the area of the
settlements Voykovsky, Kuteynikovo, Blagodatnoye, Alekseevskoye,
Uspenka, Ulyanovskoye, and also near the settlement of Yelenovka.
According to the intelligence reports, in these encirclements there are
more than 40 tanks, about 100 IFVs, APCs and airborne IFVs, 50 MLRS
(Multiple Launch Rocket System) "Grad" and "Uragan" vehicles, and more
than 60 field artillery and mortar pieces.
As
a result of a recon by combat action, detachments of the DPR army
entered Yelenovka, destroying up to 8 tanks, up to 19 armored vehicles
and a mortar battery. The enemy was pushed out of the two checkpoints on
the road from Donetsk to this settlement (i.e. Yelenovka). Three
prisoners were taken, three MT-12 anti-tank guns with ammunition, an
MTLB APC with a ZU-23-2 mounted, and a GAZ-66.
The
militia launched offensives on two major cities - Severodonetsk in the
northwest of Lugansk region, and Debaltsevo - in east of Donetsk region.
The militia is concentrating considerable forces by Lisichansk and
Severodonetsk, on the outskirts of which (Severodonetsk) the LPR
militiamen have already occupied the villages of Belaya Gora and
Borovskoe. Offensive continues on all fronts.
PS. The
last phrase is a joy to read. But, actually, the reports from the last
3-4 days are pleasant in every way. Having survived through the darkest
days in mid-August, the militia managed to not only stop the advance of
the junta, but to also launch a decisive counter-offensive with the goal
of defeating the entire southern flank of the junta forces in Donbass.
For now it is absolutely unclear when and with what forces will the
junta try to break through to the surrounded forces south of Donetsk,
and how control over their intercepted communications could be restored.
About the Militia Counter-Offensive
Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
1. The
situation has become precarious for the Junta in the area of
Novoazovsk and Mariupol. The Militia forces that penetrated from the
north, and also those that moved along the border with the Russian
Federation, created an operational crisis in the area of Novoazovsk,
which in itself implies a threat to Mariupol. The panic on the
Junta-aligned websites is not without foundation. As we mentioned
earlier, there are very few combat-capable units there - a hodgepodge of
police, punitive troops, border guards and air defense personnel,
clearly not the forces you can repel a serious Militia offensive with.
For
now the Junta is saved by the fact that the Militia forces there are
not so big and they are not achieving decisive results yet, although the
threat has already become very serious. The thing is, that by taking
advantage of the movement of Militia sabotage-reconnaissance-groups
(SRGs) to the south of the captured "Uspenka" border checkpoint, the
Militia also advanced along the border with Russia - which was cleared
from the Junta border guards - creating a local superiority in a
location that is critical for the Junta. This is the flip side of the
Junta’s decision to stop fighting for the border, due to the heavy
shelling of the Junta positions near the border by the Militia and "from
the territory of the Russian Federation". Currently, the Junta faces a
very unpleasant prospect - either it has to urgently find reserves for
the new front that suddenly opened up, or else it risks losing
Novoazovsk and may face a real threat of losing Mariupol. In general,
this blow is very unpleasant for the Junta, and it is further
complicated by the problems to the south of Donetsk.
2. The
gap in the front to the south of Amvrosievka, which the Junta
recklessly didn't plug for a few days, led to a disaster as expected.
Not only did the Militia use the gap to advance to Uspenka and
Novoazovsk and to create a threat for Mariupol. Also, the Junta units
that were drawn into the battle for Ilovaysk have spent their reserves,
which resulted in a Militia advance onto those Junta battle groups’
communications and the threat of attacking Militia units taking
Amvrosievka. An encirclement of a kind emerged, which is already the 3rd encirclement
in the south. Although this one is more of a partial encirclement - the
Militia intercepted a number of important roads to the south of the
main forces of the Junta battle group, but there's no talk yet about a
complete encirclement across all paths, because the Militia are actually
encircling a larger force with a smaller one. In the next few days the
Junta will try to break out of this critical encirclement, but if they
fail to do this, then the first two southern cauldrons will be chump
change compared to this one.
3. The
encirclement by Dyakovo is still not eliminated, the encircled forces
were given standard terms - leave and be interned in Russia, handing
over the vehicles and weapons – but their leadership refuses to accept
those, for now. But overall, the elimination of that encirclement is
just a matter of time and losses. Of course I would prefer for the
Militia to get the vehicles.
In
general, what is happening is indeed a counter-offensive, albeit with
insufficient forces. However, the blow was dealt at the time when the
Junta just suffered a defeat of its offensive towards Donetsk, and this
counteroffensive immediately triggered a serious operational crisis for
the Junta. The very nature of the events in the Donbass is changing and
now the argument is starting to shift from “will Novorossiya
survive?” to “what consequences will there be of the Junta’s defeat in
Donbass?”; including the question of “what borders would be the
starting point of negotiation?”. Perhaps the first diplomatic overtures
will happen tomorrow in Minsk.
A Short but Important Update
Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
1. About
Strelkov: The news is ahead of the event. He got an offer to move in
and become a military adviser in the Krasnodon HQ, but he did not yet
agree to this. Someone apparently has seen it fit to leak the info to
the press. What were the goals of this leak, good or bad, is yet
unclear.
2. The
Panic in Mariupol: As I wrote before, the threat on the outskirts of
the city was multiplied by the confusion in the area, so when one of the
Junta armored columns retreating from Novoazovsk was mistaken for
Militia, this led to the hysteria of "DPR tanks are just about to roll
into Mariupol!”
Hence
the traffic jams of civilians and Junta soldiers at the highway to
Berdaynsk; people thought Mariupol would be taken today and in a panic
rushed out of the city. Interestingly, when it came to running, the
nationalist guard units easily outpaced the civilians, leaving just one
punitive battalion and the remnants of police forces to defend Mariupol.
This story is very significant in the sense that it clearly shows how
panic sweeps the entire management system - from the lowest neo-Nazi of
the "Azov" battalion to the Gauleiter (chief overseer – Ger.) of
Mariupol. In reality, advance Militia groups are fighting on the
outskirts of Mariupol, and Junta is reporting that they are about to
create a reliable line of defense and stop Militia forces from entering
Mariupol (Novoazovsk is already written off, apparently).
3. South-west
of Donetsk there is a gaping hole in the Junta frontline, with nothing
available to close it. Most of the supply routes of the southern Junta
battlegroup are intercepted by the Militia, or under fire and thus
impassable. The Junta’s situation is rapidly deteriorating and can
potentially develop into more than just another encirclement, with heavy
losses - but a full-blown disaster with the collapse of the entire
southern front of Junta forces in Donbass. In the next few days the
Militiamen are expecting enemy reserves from the rest of Ukraine, which
are now being hastily redeployed to reverse the effects of Militia
breakthroughs. Given that the forces of Militia are not so large, heavy
defensive battles against shock mechanized battle groups trying to break
the encirclement are likely. As you can understand, there is no
possibility of a continued assault on Donetsk anymore.
Taking
this into account, the defeat of the Junta to the south of Donetsk will
have implications for other areas - the Militia forces are moving
towards Debaltsevo and thinking about attacking Artemovsk and
Konstantinovka. But as the main forces are occupied in other areas, any
action there is mainly just to pin Junta forces in place.
4. There
is also this unverified information: In the Rostov region, there were a
series of bizarre murders on the M4 highway. Unknown criminals lay out a
strip with nails across the asphalt, and then shoot the drivers that
come out to see what was the matter. They do not take the cars, or
personal belongings of those killed. There were 3 or 4 such cases. There
is a suspicion that there may be some Ukrainian Neo-Nazis at work. We
are checking the information.
Overall,
we are seeing the war in the Donbass completely change direction, in
real time. But the victory is not yet assured, and in the coming days,
the Junta will do everything possible to turn this difficult situation
in their favor.
The Southern Front Catastrophe – August 27, 2014
Map of Operations, August 10-27, 2014 – Created by Kot Ivanov and Anthony Hartin
Novorossiya Military Briefing – Novorossiya Shall Be!
Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
Translated from Russian by Daniel Mikhailovich / Edited by Gleb Bazov
Translated from Russian by Daniel Mikhailovich / Edited by Gleb Bazov
We
are currently witnessing an epic and in its own way historic event. The
Ukrainian regular army and the punitive battalions are suffering a
catastrophic defeat to the south of Donetsk. Only a short time ago the
Republics were in dire straits: the DPR was hanging only by a thin
supply thread, which the Ukrainian army was attempting to sever near
Shakhtersk and Krasnyi Luch; the summit of Saur-Mogila has been
abandoned, and Bolotov's counteroffensive had failed to bring decisive
victories.
To
many it seemed that the Militia forces were on the ropes and just about
to break, which would have led to the collapse of Novorossiya and a
military victory for the fascist Junta. Nevertheless, the Militia
managed to withstand the most severe blow, which the Junta dealt with
all the forces available to it in the first half of August. The Junta
did not conceal its plans, and the preparations for the assaults on
Shakhtersk and Lugansk were openly discussed. The bravura level of the
Junta’s triumphant reports that came with each new breakthrough of its
mechanized battle groups was off the charts.
The
first critical moment came when the soldiers of the 25th Airborne
Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (“UAF”) and the units of the
National Guard broke into Shakhtersk. In those days, the fate of the DPR
was hanging literally by a thread, and the Junta was on the verge of a
strategic victory. But those few militiamen that mired the Junta forces
in urban battles and held their ground until the reinforcements arrived
saved Novorossia from being dismembered into two parts. In subsequent
battles, the Junta’s breakthrough was localized and defused, and, after
sustaining heavy losses in personnel and military hardware, the Junta’s
forces in this location were routed.
The second critical moment came when a strike was made from Debaltsevo through Fashchevka, intended to converge with the 24th Mechanized
Brigade that was breaking out of the Southern Cauldron. It was an
ambitious plan, whereby the enemy tried to bisect Novorossiya by using
as a strike group the units that everybody assumed had been written off.
This joint strike on Miusinsk and Krasnyi Luch triggered a severe
crisis in Novorossiya because were very few troops in this area.
Miusinsk,
which the mechanized convoys of the junta slipped through unhindered,
was hardly defended at all, and in Krasnyi Luch some of the Cossacks
abandoned their positions. This gave rise to a palpable threat of
Novorossiya being split in two and of the militia grouping located in
the area of Torez-Snezhnoye-Saur-Mogila being eliminated. But, once
again, the courage of ordinary soldiers who clung to the towns of
Krasnyi Luch and Miusinsk allowed the Militia units to hold out until
the arrival of the reserves that aided in the purge of the enemy from
these cities. Having overcome the crisis, here also the Militia was able
to win decisive battles, which had far-reaching consequences.
Because
the offensive on Yasinovataya failed, the breakthrough to Verkhnyaya
Krynka and Zhdanovka aimed at cutting off Gorlovka was liquidated, and
the Junta failed to advance toward Yenakievo, in the second half of
August the Junta’s offensive started to run out of steam and the Militia
gradually began to gain offensive momentum.
Objectively,
the situation demanded that the Junta stop the offensive, regroup, pull
up reserves, create stores of fuel and ammunition, and then continue
the offensive by assembling new strike groups. Nevertheless, political
considerations dictated a continuation of the offensive by the same
depleted battle groups. Because the front in the LPR on the whole had
stabilized, the South Cauldron was routed, and the offensive to the
north of Donetsk had been stopped, the Junta continued its offensive in
the south, trying to take Ilovaysk and Mospino head-on despite the
serious operational risk. And as the more the Junta became embroiled in
these battles, the narrower became the front of its offensive. Having
begun in early August over a broad swath of the battlefront, already by
August 20th the Junta’s offensive narrowed effectively to a single
point.
The
outer limits of this offensive were the southern slopes of Saur-Mogila,
the semi-encircled Mospino and the southern suburbs of Ilovaisk. In the
last few days of the offensive, it was reduced simply to a primitive
frontal assault on Ilovaisk. Meanwhile, a threat that later proved to be
fatal was looming on the Junta’s southern flank. Having finished off
the Southern Cauldron and after repelling the offensive on Miusinsk and
Krasnyi Luch, the Militia recaptured Marinovka (which in July-August
twice went back and forth between the factions) and started to seep
along the border toward the Uspenka border-crossing checkpoint, in the
process encircling the Amvrosievka grouping.
It
is difficult to say why the Junta did not react to this threat – it is
possible that the Ukrainian command decided that the only danger in this
area was the activity of the saboteur-reconnaissance groups (“SRG”),
which, though unpleasant, carried no operational significance.
Alternatively, they may have thought that they will manage to achieve
success near Ilovaisk and then fend off the threat coming from the
south. As a result, the Militia was able to accumulate a sufficient
force to the south-east of Amvrosievka, and this force carried out a
cleaving strike on the supply lines of the main forces of the Junta that
were embroiled in the fighting near Ilovaisk, Mospino and Saur-Mogila.
At the same time, the forces of the enemy advancinf from the south were
met to the west of Mospino with a strike by a mechanized battle group of
the Militia. The Junta did not expect this maneuver because until quite
recently they were the ones trying to encircle Mospino from both sides.
By
the looks of it, the Junta’s intelligence missed this offensive
entirely, and as a result of this oversight a comparatively small
Militia force intercepted the main supply routes of the largest battle
group of the Junta to the south of Donetsk. This grouping was comprised
of the enemy’s most combat-capable units involved in the assaults on
Mospino, Saur-Mogila and Ilovaisk, including the three punitive
battalions – Azov, Shahtersk and Donbass-1, as well as the various
reinforcement units and independent companies. More than 5,000 soldiers,
approximately 180 various armoured vehicles, and up to 90 artillery
pieces, mortars, and MLRS ended up being surrounded.
Though
the difference in scale makes a direct comparison impossible, the
militia actually carried out a mini-“encirclement operation” similar to
the Stalingrad Cauldron – a classic pincer strike in converging
directions. While the Junta’s battle group had no Romanians or Italians
on its flanks, but it did, instead, have a gaping hole on one side, and
on the other side – barrier troops that were never meant to withstand an
attack by mechanized units. As a result, in addition to the unfinished
remnants of the Dyakovo Cauldron, the Amvrosiyevka Cauldron was created,
around which the militia began to create a ring of encirclement,
spreading its offensive to the south and to the south-west and in the
process occupying settlements deep in the rear of the southern grouping
of the Junta. At the same time, the enemy command structures rapidly
disintegrated. Battalion Azov in essence refused to subordinate, and the
majority of its troops fled to Mariupol. Battalions Donbass-1 and
Shahtersk became mired in urban combat for Ilovaisk and, instead of
breaking out of the cauldron, started to demand tanks and artillery from
the military in order to continue their assault on the city, which by
that time was pretty much a lost cause.
Because
only rearguard unites without heavy weapons remained outside the
cauldron, the Militia immediately began to develop the offensive to the
south-west of Amvrosievka, toward Starobeshevo, and took it by the
evening of August 26th. Meanwhile, militiamen were already moving toward Volnovakha on August 25th.
Effectively, the loss of these centres means that here the Junta does
not have positions from which it can try to break through to the
surrounded forces. The encircled troops, in essence, ended up deep in
the rear, far away from the new front line, and with a limited supply of
fuel and ammunition.
And
this new frontline is a gaping hole for the Junta, which has nothing to
plug it with. The remnants of its forces, including Battalion Azov,
fled to Mariupol, in the process abandoning several settlements
virtually without a shot. As a result, the Militia rolled directly into
the suburbs of Novoazovsk and onto the approaches to Mariupol. On the
Junta’s side, there is virtually no front from the area south of
Starobeshevo and up to Novoazovsk. The Milita’s lack of sufficient
troops is the only thing slowing down the looming catastrophe.
At
the same time, the Militia also developed its offensive to the west of
Mospino, toward Ugledar, Yelenovka, and Nikolskoye. Here the forces of
the Junta are few in number, so the Militia’s offensive has been
developing quite successfully, albeit not too rapidly. Near Yelenovka,
yet another "mini-cauldron" has formed, and the connectivity of the
Junta groups that held Donetsk in semi-encirclement has been irreparably
compromised.
The
Junta has no reserves with which to relieve the encircled group and to
patch the massive hole in the frontlines - they are now hastily
withdrawing troops from Perekop (on the Crimean border) and bringing
territorial battalions of questionable combat readiness to the front.
They have also announced the 4th wave
of mobilization and are trying quickly to drag ancient armoured
vehicles from long-term storage to the frontlines, in order to
compensate for the huge losses in personal and military hardware.- State Border of the Republic of Novorossiya
Overall, it still is not quite clear how the Junta intends to avoid a
complete defeat here. It will clearly not be able to restore the
previous frontline, and the only question is whether the surrounded
troops will be able to break out (and as they will have to do so on
their own, it is likely that they will have to make that decision as
soon as possible), and where the Militia’s offensive will stop - they
still have fairly limited forces and they are now routing a larger force
with a smaller force.
In
the meantime, the once-solid front, which stretched from Marinovka to
Yelenovka has now broken up into separate pockets of resistance with
intercepted supply lines. After this disaster it became absolutely clear
that the Junta does not have the capacity to destroy Novorossiya. By
squandering the most combat-capable brigades in systematic offensive
operations, the Junta sustained enormous losses and at the same time
suffered a crushing, purely military defeat. The southern front has
collapsed. Novorossiya shall exist!
