Machine translated news an open thread

Dear friends,

I will be gone all day today so I will make this one short.  So far, and regardless of the hilarious misrepresentation of the events in the western MSM, the Ukrainian attack as failed everywhere.  Peski has been partially taken by the Novorussians (helped by Serbian volunteers), Ukrainians forces around Mariupol are on the retreat and the overall intensity of combats is "medium".  For details, the best I can offer is the report of the always excellent Colonel Cassad:

original Russian: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1994795.html

Google machine translation: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fcolonelcassad.livejournal.com%2F1994795.html&edit-text=

Sorry, this is the best I can do at this moment as I am about to hit the road for the rest of the day.

I will try to produce a halfway decent SITREP tonight if I am not too exhausted.

Kind regards

The Saker

PS: great drawing on Cassad's blog:

Obama: glory to the Ukraine! Ukie: to the heroes glory!

 

September 21 Ukraine and Russia mini-SITREP

Demonstrations in Russia:

According to RT, 5'000 to 26'000 people have marched in the streets of Moscow demanding peace in the Ukraine.  According to Vzgliad,20 people demonstrated in Petrozavodsk and Saratov, 50 in Perm, up to 100 in Ekaterinburg, 10 in Novosibirsk, 15 in Syktyvkar and a few people in Barnaul.  What are important here are not the actual figures, but the order of magnitude.  What we clearly see is that these demonstrations were tiny, at least by Russian standards and when RT's  Anissa Naouai reports that there was a "very high turnout" she is plain wrong.  Also, and this is no less important, let us be very careful about what these demonstrations were all about: for peace in the Ukraine and against war.  With such a vague and yet doubleplusgoodmeaning slogan, even refugees from bombed out Donetsk could agree (maybe even especially them).

What we have here is a typical propaganda ploy: get people in the streets in support of peace, love and happiness all over the world, and then present that as an "opposition" protest against the government policies.  But, come on, seriously, who wants war in the Ukraine?  The Kremlin?  

The other important point is this: even if, for argument's sake, we agree that 100% of the demonstators were fierce opponents of Putin or Russian policies in the Ukraine, that is less than nothing compared to Putin 80%+ approval rate.

So what did not happen?

What did not happen is the "Russian Maidan" predicted by Evgenii Fedorov and his supporters.  This is what he predicted would happen on September 14th:

They chose Saint Petersburg as the first site. The process has begun. The process is being helped: the whole story with an early election in Saint Petersburg is not accidental! (...)  They will send to Petersburg the same trained young people and fighters as those who were prepared in Ukraine. If necessary, they will be issued with Russian passports. The total number of fighters in Russia, prepared by the Americans, ranges from 50'000 to 100'000. On the basis of Ukraine. Of course, you won’t be able to pick them out: they are Russian people, in pure form. These people will come to Petersburg and rent apartments in great numbers. Their task will be to carry out provocations, if necessary, military provocations.  What does it all mean? It means terrorist activities! The Right Sector as you know does not have any problems with terrorist activities.

How much of that did actually happen? None at all.
Where is the Nationalist Maidan?  Nowhere.
How is the regime in power?  As stable as ever.

Fedorov did not stop here. In the same article (please do read it all), he even wrote this:

First, there is a new Ukrainian factor: a 100 thousand brainwashed people. The propaganda is at work turning people into animals there. Their position has strengthened in case you haven’t paid attention. You know, people are watching and many of them are rejoicing at the victories in Ukraine. There are no victories! There are some tactical gains, but no wins. Just six months ago we had a neutral neighbouring country. Now we have a country that has more than 40 million people and is absolutely militarily hostile to Russia. What kind of victory is that? Moreover, they have a Russian population. This is a country which can serve as a good base for the invasion of Russia by orange invaders of the modern type. It wasn’t like this just six months ago. It means that the balance of power around Russia has fundamentally changed. We suffered a huge defeat in the geopolitical sense. We didn’t have an enemy yesterday, and today our enemies look like us. In fact, it is a clear victory by the 5th column. It has won politically, militarily, and from there to a military invasion of Russia.

A military invasion of Russia, no less!

Evgenii Fedorov is a very nice person and he has many good ideas.  I honestly like him.  But as an analyst he is firmly set into the "doom, gloom and total panic" camp and, frankly, he has zero credibility with me.  I have tried to warn about this, but mostly I was ignored or attacked.  I hope that with the total "flop" on this "Russian Maidan" everybody now see that Fedorov should be listen to with a couple of pounds of salt.

Russian strategy in the Ukraine

Several of you have pointed out the apparent contradiction in my assertion that Russia's real goal in the Ukraine is regime change while, at the same time, staying out of the Ukraine and placing the burden of liberation and de-Nazificaton on the Ukrainian people.  The contradiction is, I submit, only apparent.  Here is what Russia can, and should, do:

1) Politically oppose the regime everywhere: UN, media, public opinion, etc.
2) Express political support for Novorussia and any Ukrainian opposition
3) Continue the informational war (Russian media does a great job)
4) Prevent Novorussia from falling (covert military aid)
5) Mercilessly keep up the economic pressure on the Ukraine
6) Disrupt as much as possible the US-EU "axis of kindness"
7) Help Crimea and Novorussia prosper economically and financially

In other words - give the appearance of staying out while very much staying in.

The key here is to create the conditions which would make it possible for the Ukrainian people to overthrow the Nazis currently in power, boot out the CIA proconsul in Kiev and begin de-Nazifying the country. Yes, this is a long-term and difficult task, but Russia has no other viable options.  There will never be stability of safety for Russia as long as the Nazis are in power in Kiev.  Sure, a temporary cease-fire or truce or even treaty can be signed with the Nazis, but it will never be viable and at most it will provide a short term respite.  I will repeat it again, regime change and de-nazification in the Ukraine are a vital national strategic objective for Russia.  Nothing short of that will do.

In conclusion, a couple of short items:

Business Insider says that "Ukraine Is On The Brink Of Total Economic Collapse".

The Kiev basketball team played in Lithuania against Russia wearing 'cammo sport's gear':

They lost 77 to 102 :-)

And now, last but not least, the really good news!!

According to Yahoo, the notorious Jewish oligarch, Mafia Don, mega-oligarch and iconic "Putin foe" Mikhail Khodorkovksy wants to lead the anti-Putin opposition and he is even contemplating a presidential position for himself.  This is absolutely wonderful news as, now that Berezovsky is dead, Khodorkovsky can legitimately claim the title of most hated oligarch in Russia.  To have him now declare that he wants to "lead" (read: finance) the Russia non-systemic (which did not even make it into the Duma) opposition is a dream come true for Putin's PR team.  They will now have a wonderful time discrediting all the pro-US opposition has "Khodorkovsk's agents".

Great news indeed!

Kind regards,

The Saker

A couple of short pointers about the situation in the eastern Ukraine

Guys, I came home late after a pretty crazy day and I can't write a proper SITREP, if only because of the still very confused situation in the eastern Ukraine.  Still, I want to share a couple of short pointers with you.

The "destroyed Russian armor column": Poroshenko vs Carl Sagan

I cannot prove a negative.  But then, I am not the one making the claim.  The Ukies and a few British reporters did.  And they presented ZERO proof.  As Carl Sagan so well put it "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" and the notion that Russia would send in only 23 armored vehicles, with no protection, in broad daylight is quite extraordinary.  As is the notion that in a region chock-full of Russian military units nobody would have taken any action to save the column.  So even if a Russian unit got into the Ukraine by mistaken (at the age of GPS and GLONASS, yet another extraordinary claim!) the notion that those who sent it did nothing to protect or extract their own men is also extraordinary.  As for the British reporters, they don't even have a cellphone to show even bad images, maybe taken from far away?  They have nothing at all?  Quite extraordinary again.  Last, but not least, there is one more extraordinary element to this story, but one which I do believe.  I just heard that the British Foreign Office summoned the Russian ambassador to the UK over this Russian incursion.  Excuse me -but since when is the Ukraine part of the British Empire of Commonwealth?  What business does the Foreign Office have in this matter?

I am quite sure that there are *lots* of destroyed armored columns all over the Donbass.  In fact, the Resistance always makes a point of filming them.  I just came across this one today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV5Y7OaDBng (sorry, no translation yet).  So maybe the Ukies did show some burned armor to the British journalists.  Ukie armor, of course.  As for Poroshenko, he is desperately trying to convince the world that the Russians are about to invade, possibly by using their humanitarian convoy.  What is sure is that until I see some rock solid evidence, with a credible scenario explaining how this could have happened, I will continue to side with Carl Sagan and dismiss this story completely.

The change of the Novorussian leadership

Unlike the previous story, this one is also quite extraordinary, but it comes with plenty of extraordinary evidence: there is no doubt possible about the fact that all the key figures in Novorussia have been replaced.  Strelkov is alive and apparently not under duress.  What could explain this?

As much as I hate baseless speculation, I will say that two theories seem to make sense to me.  I present a summary of both of them here for discussion's sake, and I am at this moment endorsing neither one.

Theory One: a "grand deal" is in the works.

Under this theory, some key individuals in the Kremlin and the Ukie oligarch Rinat Akhmetov are trying to stop the war and hammer out a deal in which Novorussia would remain part of a single Ukrainian state, but with very large autonomy, especially in cultural, linguistic, political and economic terms.  Some speculate that the Ukraine would not join NATO.  This theory is similar to the "secret Putin-Merkel deal" theory also put forward recently.  The strongest argument for this theory is that from the onset of the conflict Moscow's #1 goal has always been a unitary but neutral and stable Ukraine, but not a russophobic, Fascist or NATO one.  Russia neither wants nor needs the Ukraine or even the Donbass.  What Russia needs is a stable, predictable and safe neighbor on its eastern border.  The biggest problem with this theory is that for the majority of those who took up arms against the Nazi junta nothing short from a complete separation from Kiev is acceptable.  This does not, however, mean that such a solution is also unacceptable to most of the people in Novorussia a majority of whom have not taken up arms.  There is only one actor which has the means to conduct a survey of majority public opinion in this war zone, and that is the Russia state.  Thus, I submit that only the Kremlin knows what a majority of Novorussians want or would settle for.  Finally, let me be clear here.  We are not, repeat, NOT discussing any type of "sellout" or "betrayal" or "backstabbing" of Novorussia by Putin.  Yes, all the Putin-bashers (paid or not) will present that like this, but even a close friend of Strelkov like Pavel Gubarev has unambiguously stated that there was zero chance of that happening.  What we are talking about here is a compromise deal with would probably be acceptable to some parties (most non-fighting Novorussians, the Kremlin, Rinat Akhmetov, the EU) and non-acceptable by others (Kiev, Uncle Sam, most fighting Novorussians).

Theory Two: a "grand counter-attack" is in the works.

Contrary to a lot of comments I have seen posted here over the pas few days, I see exactly zero reasons to believe that the Resistance is about to be crushed.  In fact, from all the reports I have seen, it is the Ukie sides which at tremendous costs has achieved exactly nothing.  Furthermore, the re-taking of Saur Mogila by the Ukie forces might well result in yet another cauldron for them.  Add to this the very persistent rumors and hints by various commanders on the ground that a big counter-offensive is in the works and I get feeling that the Ukies might well have reached a breaking point.  Please be careful to notice that I said that such a hypothesis is consistent with the available data, I did not make a prediction that this will happen.  However, in this hypothesis what happened is that all the key Russians-from-Russia figures have been  replaced by local, Russians-from-Donbass people.  The rationale would be to avoid the impression that "Russian forces are invading the Ukraine" and to show, instead, that "Ukrainian forces are liberating their own land".  The best argument in favor of this hypothesis is that if the Resistance was to go on the offensive it would need a more complex headquarters and that this is why Strelkov was "promoted" to "chief of staff" of the Novorussian military.  The best argument against this hypothesis is that I simply don't see the Resistance which yesterday was only a militia of volunteers become an effective military force capable of operational-level actions.  Now, if there really is nobody between the Ukie troops in the Donbass and Kiev, maybe such a move could be achieved by a constant series of tactical-level engagements, but I just don't see that happening.

As I said above, I am endorsing neither theory at this point, it is too early to call and there are way too many "unknown unknowns" (to borrow Rumsefeld expression) to make categorical statements.  But I will say that I find the first theory substantially more plausible than the second one.

The half-empty trucks

That is a simple one.  The Russian convoy of trucks is composed of trucks roughly loaded at 50% of max capacity to make sure that no truck stops in route or has any difficulty getting through very bad terrain.  It was planned this way and the Russians announced that on day 1.

A nationalist Maidan against Putin this fall

I am not a big fan of the Dugin-Fedorov-Limonov crowd because they tend to do what I call "headline baiting": they always predict the most extreme events (such as a US nuclear attack on Russia) and they always get the most attention form the general public.  The case in point is this notion of a nationalist backlash against Putin.  First, you will notice that this very idea implies that Putin would betray Russian national interest.  He might do that tomorrow morning.  But as of right now there is absolutely zero evidence for that.  Again, I would never place my faith in the hands of a politicians, and I don't want people to "trust" or, even less so, "believe in" Putin.  But I am saying that the theory that tomorrow morning Putin will "sell out" Novorussia or "betray" the Russian national interests has as much factual or logical basis as the theory that tomorrow Putin will join the Hare-Krishnas: zero.  There is a HUGE difference between "possible" and "probable" or "likely" and while "possible" requires very little, if any, substantiation, it is amateurish and often irresponsible to call "probable" something which is only "possible".  Second, right now Putin's rating is at a stratospheric 87% - higher than ever before - and even his way of dealing with the anti-Russian sanctions has made him more popular than before.  Third, there are many lies and inanities written by the MSM about "Putin the Dictator" but one thing is true: Putin has complete control over the Russian security services and the Russian security services are more powerful now than ever before.  Lastly, how can one seriously think that the Russian people have seen the horrors of the Ukie Maidan only to start one of their own.  This is utter nonsense.  My strictly personal advice would be this: take anything Dugin-Fedorov-Limonov have to say with a couple of cubic meters of salt.

The countdown to Dmitri Orlov's stages 4 and 5

One more thing.  All these topics are just like the proverbial trees hiding the forest.  The real story is that we are living a countdown to a huge explosion in Banderastan.  We all know that the rump-Ukraine is broke, but we forget what that means and what this really means.  Dmitri Orlov, in his absolutely fantastic book "The Five States of Collapse" explains that collapses happen in the following sequence:

Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out and access to capital is lost.
Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.
Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.
Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum, run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.
Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity.” Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I can die tomorrow.”

art: Josetxo Ezcurra

By the way, Orlov correctly notes that the collapse of the Soviet Union stopped at Stage 3.  Now think about the rump-Ukraine lead by the Nazi junta in Kiev.  It is already more or less at Stage 3 and the economic collapse has not really made landfall yet!  Sure, the junta's western patrons are keeping the Hrivna artificially high (have you ever seen the currency of a country in the midst of a civil war remain more or less stable?  Of course not! The western banks are buying that useless toilet paper for political reasons!) and fake short term loans can give the illusion that "so far so good", but the reality is catching up really, really fast.  Within the next couple of months Banderastan will full enter Stages 4 and 5 of Orlov's collapse model and then things will get really ugly.  At this point the introduction of some kind of dictatorship is simply inevitable.  Either that, or a "Somalization".  In either case, this is really going to be hell on earth and this is were the real focus should be right now: how to prepare for the absolutely inevitable explosion.

As for the EU, the Russian sanctions are beginning to bite.  Badly.  Hence more and more EU politicians are frantically trying to climb out of the hole they dug for themselves.  The really weird thing is that Russia has, so far, avoided to enter a recession in spite of the outflow of speculative capital.  Oh sure, eventually, factors such as the recession in the EU, the war in the Ukraine and western sanctions will hurt Russia, but it is quite remarkable so far Russia is doing better than predicted.

Bottom line: very soon the rump-Ukraine will either completely explode or see a new regime, this time openly dictatorial.  The EU economies are likely to begin really hurting and the combination of these two phenomena will leave the USA without any viable puppet to use against Russia.  Things might get so ugly that we might even see a moment in which the EU will welcome a Russian intervention in the Ukraine.

That's it for tonight.  Hopefully the very confused and murky situation will become clearer soon at which point I will try to sit down and write a halfway decent SITREP.

Kind regards to all,

The Saker