Three fronts for Russia: How Washington will fan the flames of chaos in Central Asia

by Ivan Lizan for Odnako

Source: http://www.odnako.org/blogs/tri-fronta-dlya-rossii-kak-vashington-razduet-plamya-haosa-v-sredney-azii/

Translated by Robin

U.S. Gen. “Ben” Hodges’ statement that within four or five years Russia could develop the capability to wage war simultaneously on three fronts is not only an acknowledgment of the Russian Federation’s growing military potential but also a promise that Washington will obligingly ensure that all three fronts are right on the borders of the Russian Federation.

In the context of China’s inevitable rise and the soon-to-worsen financial crisis, with the concomitant bursting of asset bubbles, the only way for the United States to maintain its global hegemony is to weaken its opponents. And the only way to achieve that goal is to trigger chaos in the republics bordering Russia.

That is why Russia will inevitably enter a period of conflicts and crises on its borders.

And so the first front in fact already exists in the Ukraine, the second will most likely be between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, and the third, of course, will be opened in Central Asia.

If the war in Ukraine leads to millions of refugees, tens of thousands of deaths, and the destruction of cities, defrosting the Karabakh conflict will completely undermine Russia’s entire foreign policy in the Caucasus.

Every city in Central Asia is under threat of explosions and attacks. So far this “up-and-coming front” has attracted the least media coverage – Novorossiya dominates on national television channels, in newspapers, and on websites –, but this theater of war could become one of the most complex after the conflict in the Ukraine.

A subsidiary of the Caliphate under Russia’s belly

The indisputable trend in Afghanistan – and the key source of instability in the region – is to an alliance between the Taliban and the Islamic State. Even so, the formation of their union is in its early days, references to it are scarce and fragmentary, and the true scale of the activities of the IS emissaries is unclear, like an iceberg whose tip barely shows above the surface of the water.

But it has been established that IS agitators are active in Pakistan and in Afghanistan’s southern provinces, which are controlled by the Taliban. But, in this case, the first victim of chaos in Afghanistan is Pakistan, which at the insistence of, and with help from, the United States nurtured the Taliban in the 1980s. That project has taken on a life of its own and is a recurring nightmare for Islamabad, which has decided to establish a friendlier relationship China and Russia. This trend can be seen in the Taliban’s attacks on Pakistani schools, whose teachers now have the right to carry guns, regular arrests of terrorists in the major cities, and the start of activities in support of tribes hostile to the Taliban in the north.

The latest legislative development in Pakistan is a constitutional amendment to expand military court jurisdiction [over civilians]. Throughout the country, terrorists, Islamists and their sympathizers are being detained. In the northwest alone, more than 8,000 arrests have been made, including members of the clergy. Religious organizations have been banned and IS emissaries are being caught.

Since the Americans do not like putting all their eggs in one basket, they will provide support to the government in Kabul, which will allow them to remain in the country legitimately, and at the same time to the Taliban, which is transforming itself into IS. The outcome will be a state of chaos in which the Americans will not formally take part; instead, they will sit back on their military bases, waiting to see who wins. And then Washington will provide assistance to the victor. Note that its security services have been supporting the Taliban for a long time and quite effectively: some of the official security forces and police in Afghanistan are former Taliban and Mujahideen.

Method of destruction

The first way to destabilize Central Asia is to create problems on the borders, along with the threat that Mujahideen will penetrate the region. The testing of the neighbours has already started; problems have arisen in Turkmenistan, which has even had to ask Kabul to hold large-scale military operations in the border provinces. Tajikistan has forced the Taliban to negotiate the release of the border guards it abducted, and the Tajik border service reports that there is a large group of Mujahideen on its borders.

In general, all the countries bordering Afghanistan have stepped up their border security.

The second way is to send Islamists behind the lines. The process has already begun: the number of extremists in Tajikistan alone grew three-fold last year; however, even though they are being caught, it obviously will not be feasible to catch all of them. Furthermore, the situation is aggravated by the return of migrant workers from Russia, which will expand the recruiting base. If the stream of remittances from Russia dries up, the outcome may be popular discontent and managed riots.

Kyrgyz expert Kadir Malikov reports that $70 million has been allocated to the IS military group Maverenahr, which includes representatives of all the Central Asian republics, to carry out acts of terrorism in the region. Special emphasis is placed on the Fergana Valley as the heart of Central Asia.

Another point of vulnerability is Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for this fall. The initiation of a new set of color revolutions will lead to chaos and the disintegration of countries.

Self-supporting wars

Waging war is expensive, so the destabilization of the region must be self-supporting or at least profitable for the U.S. military-industrial complex. And in this area Washington has had some success: it has given Uzbekistan 328 armored vehicles that Kiev had requested for its war with Novorossiya. At first glance, the deal isn’t profitable because the machines were a gift, but in reality Uzbekistan will be tied to U.S. spare parts and ammunition. Washington made a similar decision on the transfer of equipment and weapons to Islamabad.

But the United States has not been successful in its attempts to impose its weapons systems on India: the Indians have not signed any contracts, and Obama was shown Russian military hardware when he attended a military parade.

Thus the United States is drawing the countries in the region into war with its own protégés – the Taliban and Islamic State – and at the same time is supplying its enemies with weapons.

***

So 2015 will be marked by preparations for widespread destabilization in Central Asia and the transformation of AfPak into an Islamic State subsidiary on the borders of Russia, India, China, and Iran. The start of full-scale war, which will inevitably follow once chaos engulfs the region, will lead to a bloodbath in the “Eurasian Balkans,” automatically involving more than a third of the world’s population and almost all the United States’ geopolitical rivals. It’s an opportunity Washington will find too good to miss.

Russia’s response to this challenge has to be multifaceted: involving the region in the process of Eurasian integration, providing military, economic, and political assistance, working closely with its allies in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS, strengthening the Pakistani army, and of course assisting with the capture of the bearded servants of the Caliphate.

But the most important response should be the accelerated modernization of its armed forces as well as those of its allies and efforts to strengthen the Collective Security Treaty Organization and give it the right to circumvent the highly inefficient United Nations.

The region is extremely important: if Ukraine is a fuse of war, then Central Asia is a munitions depot. If it blows up, half the continent will be hit.

Listening to Lavrov giving up on the West

Yesterday, I watched with interest a talkshow called "The Right to Know" which featured an hour long interview with Sergei Lavrov (those who understand Russian can watch it here).  It was an interesting exchange between Lavrov and five Russian reporters.  It was not important enough to warrant translating it all into English, but I want to share with you something which I had noticed in the past but which was powerfully expressed during this conversation.

Predictably, the topics included the civil war in the Ukraine, the status of the investigation about the shooting down of MH17, sanctions against Russia, the expansion of NATO, the negotiations in Minsk and Russia's engagement with the BRICS countries.

All all these topics, the Q&A had a similar format.  One of the reporters asked Lavrov to comment on what appeared to be a dead-end situation and Lavrov confirmed saying "we tried our best, but to our great regret, that had no effect".  What was so interesting is that while the reporters were expressing bafflement that things had gone so far, Lavrov's reaction was "yes, you are right, this is truly hopeless".  The overall effect was one of a PTA meeting discussing some hopelessly stupid and incapable student.  Except the "student" in this case was the entire West.

For example, about MH17 the reporters voiced their amazement at the sterility and vagueness of the recently released report.  They noticed that while the entire western media went into a full hysteria mode with headlines like "PUTIN THE TERRORIST!!!!" or "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!!" they all apparently totally forgot that the investigation was still ongoing.  Lavrov's reaction was "yes, I agree, well, we tried at the UN Security Council, we submitted our questions, we wanted a full ceasefire with a thorough investigation of the debris, we offered our own information, we spoke to the Malaysians, we wanted to speak to the experts, but they spent three weeks in Kiev talking to the Junta officials,, we still have questions but we are the only ones who apparently are still interested in getting a full transparent and accountable investigation going" (this is no a quote, but a faithful paraphrase, I think).  The sense one got from listening to this was "frankly, they are hopeless, what else can we do?"

Touching upon the sanctions, the reporters said that many countries were surprised at the speed at which Russia turned away from the West and began building relations with Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Indian Subcontinent and, again, Lavrov replied "yes, we were even surprised by the pace of events ourselves, but we had no choice".

This is not the only show which sends the same message.  The sense that I am getting is that Russia has given up on the West.  Sure, she will continue talking, and she will try, against all evidence, to elicit some adult responsible behavior from western politicians, but nobody in Russia is holding his/her breath.

On another show (Sunday Evening with Vladimir Soloviev) the participants remarked that Germany had taken the lead in putting pressure on Finland, the Slovak Republic and the other nations who did not want to adopt more sanctions.  Again, the message was "forget about the Germans, they are hopeless".

I believe that there is a sincere and widespread sense of disgust and hopelessness in Russia towards the EU countries.  As for the USA, they are mostly seen as a hate-filled messianic lunatic who will do anything and everything to harm Russia in any way it can, no matter how crazy, absurd, useless and hypocritical.

All this builds up to a consensus that while war with the USA and NATO must be avoided, of course, there is nothing much else to be gained from making much efforts.  Many politicians now say "our foreign policy has been way to fixated on the West and that needs to be stopped - our future is elsewhere".

The recent adoptions of sanctions against Russia are a perfect example of that.  While I few hardcore pro-US liberal figures complain, I kid you not, that the French 'belon' oysters will not be available in Moscow, most people see that these sanctions are a blessing in disguise as they force Russia to sever links with the West, something they believe should have been done long ago.  In the short term, the western sanctions will "bite", especially on some high-tech items, but by and large most people understand that being dependent on the West for such items was the real mistake in the first place.

Again, the prevailing sense is one of disgust, bewilderment, and fatigue.  Though somebody as diplomatic as Lavrov will never say the, the general reaction is clearly "you guys are both hopeless and in decline; we don't need, you, goodbye".  This is said without anger, mostly with sadness, really.

I don't think that Russian diplomats will make a big anti-western statement at the UN or anywhere else.  The opposite of love is not hatred, but indifference.  And Russian officials will continue to speak of "our partners" or even "our friends", but while this nice sounding rhetoric will continue, relations with the West will gradually cease to be a priority for the Russian diplomacy, business community and even general public.  In fact, Russia is already building a multi-polar world and if the West wants no part of it - tough.  The Russians know that the West cannot prevent the emergence of this new world, and they don't really care if they refuse accept this reality or play by the new rules.

One more thing: the Russians are most definitely upset about the very aggressive NATO stance because they - correctly - interpret it as a sign of hostility.  But,  contrary to what a lot of bloggers say, the Russians have no fear of the military threat posed by NATO.  Their reaction to the latest NATO moves (new bases and personnel in Central Europe, more spending, etc.) is to denounce it as provocative, but Russian officials all insist that Russia can handle the military threat.  As one Russian deputy said "5 rapid reaction diversionary groups is a problem we can solve with one missile".  A simplistic but basically correct formula.  Putin said the very same thing when he clearly spelled out that in case of a massive conventional attack by "anybody" Russia would engage tactical nukes.  In fact, if NATO goes ahead with its stupid plan to deploy forces in Poland and/or the Baltics I expect Russia with withdraw from the IRNF Treaty and deploy advanced successors to the famous RSD-10 (SS-20).  As I mentioned before, the decision to double the size of the Russian Airborne Forces and to upgrade the elite 45th Special Designation Airborne Regiment to full brigade-size has already been taken anyway.  You could say that Russia preempted the creation of the 10'000 strong NATO force by bringing her own mobile (airborne) forces from 36'000 to 72'000.  Having thus taken care of the threat, the Kremlin will simply turn to more important business elsewhere.

Among the many misconceptions we absorb during our training (I cannot call it "education) we, in the West, have a tendency to view our part of the world as the center of the planet, some even would say the indispensable and only truly important one.  This can be seen in our systematically Europe or US centered maps of the world, to our quasi dogmatic beliefs that nobody matters as much as we do.  This is wrong.  In fact, while the AngloZionist Empire is on slow but steady and ineluctable decline, the rest of the world pays it the needed lip service and basically moves on.  If the training facilities we call "schools" had any educated educators we would start hanging China-centered maps of the world in our training rooms, and we would tell out young trainees that nobody takes the so-called "western values" seriously anymore.  Not because they are not good, but because clearly we, in the West, don't take them seriously in the first place.

Obama announced a "pivot" towards Asia but, in a typical AngloZionist manner, all this pivot really meant was more military forces and more pressure to obey the Empire's demands.  Unlike the US, Russia did not announce any "pivot", but Putin already met with Xi Jinping four times this year and both sides have declared that their strategic partnership was the strongest it had ever been in the history of their relationship.

Russia is really turning her gaze to China, Latin America, Africa and elsewhere.  Her diplomats will continue to talk, smile, speak of "partners" and "friends", but I believe that  we are witnessing a historical event: for the first time since the 13th century, Russia is turning away from the West again and betting her future with Asia (and the rest of the planet).

The Saker