An interesting theory about the recent tensions on the Korean Peninsula

Shevchenko

I just heard one of my favorite analysts, Maksim Shevchenko, offer a very interesting theory about the tensions on the Korean Peninsula.  Here is a summary of his theory:

There is no way the DPRK would have started that kind of confrontation with the USA without the blessing of the Chinese.  What happened in this case is that the Chinese told the North Koreans to "rock the boat" in Korea as a not so subtle hint to the USA: if you insist on triggering a crisis in Syria, we will trigger one in Korea.  According to Shevchenko, the USA immediately got the message and the Americans backed down.

Interesting theory.  But Shevchenko did not say what his sources were, neither did he offer any corroboration.  Finally, Shevchenko is a world-class specialist of the Caucasus, but not of China or Korean affairs.

Still, I thought I would mention this theory just as an interesting possibility.

The Saker

Dismissing North Korea? Maybe not completely...

I have been watching the circus on the Korean peninsula with some dismay for a while already.  I am dismayed not only by the fact that both sides are acting rather irresponsibly, but also by what I consider a potentially dangerous dismissal of the North Korean threats.

First, and here I am going to alienate some folks with whom I otherwise sympathize, I do not lay the blame for the current crisis on the USA.  Yes, the USA did act in an arrogant and obnoxious way with the DPRK recently and, I would add, even not so recently.  Heck, the USA acts with condescending arrogance towards pretty much every country out there except Israel. And, of course, the USA policies towards the DPRK have been a mess since the Republicans torpedoed the "Agreed Framework" and accused Clinton of "appeasement".  So what?!

The USA's policies towards Iran ever since the Islamic Revolution have been no less arrogant, threatening and treacherous.  But unlike the "Great Leader" (Kim Il-sung) and the "Dear Leader" (Kim Jong-il) the Iranians went out of their way to avoid responding to these provocations and always took the necessary steps to de-escalate the situation.

There can be no excuse for the absolutely irresponsible stream of threats coming out of the DPRK recently.  Even worse, the North Koreans are actually *doing* things.  And yet, most people dismiss all this because they correctly believe that there is no way that the DPRK can prevail in a conflict against the USA, Taiwan, Japan and, of course, South Korea.  They also correctly believe that neither China nor Russia are going to help the DPRK in any way.  In fact, should a conflict actually start, we can expect both China and Russia to side with the USA.  This is all true, and yet history tells us the risk is real.

First, by taking all the 'symbolic' steps which could precede a war (movement of troops and missiles, 'official warnings', evacuation of embassies, etc.) the DPRK is actually taking the steps which would *really* precede a possible attack.  In other words, an effective bluff by definition carries the risk of being taken seriously.  If the North Koreans count on the Americans to ignore their threats they are making a big mistake,  Why?

Because the US military fully understands that while North Korea cannot 'win' a war against the South, they can inflict tremendous damage on South Korea and, especially, on Seoul which is literally within the reach of North Korean artillery strikes.  Besides a large, if antiquated, military, the DPRK has a very large special forces capability (25 special forces brigades in the ground forces, plus another 7000 naval special forces).  Such a large number of special forces is more than adequate to create a great deal of chaos and destruction.  So whether in the end the DPRK can win or not is immaterial as nobody can doubt that the DPRK can inflict a huge amount of death and destruction upon the South.  Hence, if the DPRK's bluff becomes convincing enough and an attack appears to be imminent, the US will have no other choice than to preempt it and attack first.

Second, it appears that the North Korean propaganda machine is in full swing promising an imminent war.  It is unclear to me how they could create such a sense of urgency, or even panic, and then simply back down.  This kind of bellicose rhetoric eventually acquires a forces of its own which can be very hard to contain.

Third, by ratcheting up the military readiness of its military the political leaders of the DPRK are putting more power in the hands of the military commanders and if only one of them decides to begin the hostilities the rest will have to follow.

Kim Jong-il

Finally, and while I disapprove of Western media style demonization campaigns against putatively "bad" leaders, it the case of the DPRK it really appears that the Dear Leader is every bit a crazy psychopaths has his daddy, the Great Leader.  The great weakness of any theory of deterrence is that is always assumes a rational actor.  But what if we are really dealing with absolutely insane maniacs here?

What is happening here is that the USA and its allies are in the situation of a cop facing a lunatic with a knife.  The lunatic cannot win, of course, but he can gravely injure the cop who, therefore, will have to open fire with his firearm as soon as the lunatic gets too close to him.

And, least I get accused of parroting the propaganda of the Western corporate media - let me say here that I have watched interviews of Russian experts who not only worked in the DPRK, but who even worked in delegations which had a direct contact with the Great Leader and the Dear Leader.  They all seem to think that at the very least these two are delusional megalomaniacs and that the DPRK is a hellhole of the worst kind.

I sure hope that the current escalation stops soon and that Russia and China will be able to convince the DPRK to cut this bellicose nonsense.  Neither country has, so far, evacuated its diplomats from Pyongyang even though the North Koreans have declared that they cannot ensure their safety after April 10th.  Hopefully they know something I don't.  My main problem is that I don't see any practical way to de-escalate this situation.

This will all probably end up without a full-scale war, but I would not be too inclined to dismiss such a possibility completely.

The Saker

South Korean newspaper exonerates North over torpedo

RT TV reports:

A South Korean newspaper claims Russian investigators have found North Korea did not torpedo one of the South's warships that sank in spring. The report says the vessel hit a mine.

Russia has not yet commented on the story.

The "Cheonan" sank off the Korean peninsula in March, with the loss of 46 sailors.

Earlier, a US-backed international investigation found Pyongyang responsible. However, Pavel Leshakov, the director of Korean studies at the Moscow State University, says the conclusion is “almost 100 per cent political.”

Watch full interview with Pavel Leshakov:

Russia sent its own team of investigators to the region last month.

North Korea has continuously denied any links to the incident.

The incident has made the tense situation on the divided peninsula even worse. But it could potentially develop to become even uglier, says investigative journalist Wayne Madsen.

“This is very critical, because if there is a smoking gun – this could have been a set-up, this was some sort of accident made look like hostile action or it was some sort of false flag attack, this could result in war against a nuclear armed-country, North Korea,” Madsen asserts.

Canadian foreign policy analyst Stephen Gowans says war in the region “could be possible, however we can also look at this as an on-going programme of the United States and South Korea to impose enormous military pressure on North Korea with the goal of seeing it collapse.”

Watch full interview with Stephen Gowans:

Pyotr Razvin from the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, believes despite the high tension, the chances of an actual war are limited.

"Both North and South Korea see the perspective of a war as mutually assured destruction. If a conflict were to erupt, the Korean peninsula would be economically devastated. Besides, neighbouring China has no interest in a war on its borders either, be it a nuclear or not."

Watch the full interview with Dr. Jae-Jung Suh:

Dr. Jae-Jung Suh of the Korea Studies Program at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, DC argued that the report presented by the international investigation faulting North Korea may have errors.

Suh’s report casts doubt on North Korea's guilt and the use of a torpedo, arguing that the evidence does not prove North Korea nor a torpedo were at fault.

“We do not argue that the North Koreans did not do it. What we are arguing is that the joint investigative group of the South Korean government has failed to prove beyond any reasonable doubt that the North Korean torpedo hit the ship and sunk it,” said Suh.

He argued that the biggest inconsistency is the white power found on the ship by the investigative group; he argued that it did not result from an explosion. Lab experiments and analysis have replicated the chemical process, showing that the powder was rust from water exposure over time, aluminum hydroxide, not a result of the explosion.