Saturday, May 3, 2014

A small clarification to the previous SITREP

Some of you have understood my reference to Chechnia in the latest SITREP has an indication of the kind of tactics the Russian military would use if/when the Kremlin decides to intervene in the Ukraine.

That is not at all what I meant and I apologize for misleading you.

What I meant was to say that in extreme circumstances Putin was willing to use extreme measures.  But let me reassure you all - the Donbass is not Chechnia, the Ukrainians are not Chechens and, most importantly, the Russian military of 2014 is not the Russian military of 1999.  In fact, I can guarantee you that these tactics will not be used in the Ukraine.  Such massive use of firepower is the sign of a weak military, once which does not trust the training of its own soldiers, one which has poor command, control and intelligence and one which uses the only thing it still has: a big fist.  Such tactics are effective but crude and if the Russian military used them in the Ukraine it would result in a outraged explosion of protest in Russia.

Without going into details, what the Russians would do if they intervened in the Ukraine would be to disorganize Ukie communication and create a sense of chaos (for the Ukie command).  By "going for the eyes" they would transform what is currently a more or less coherent Ukie attack force into many small and completely confused ones.  Though that phase could include a few bomb/missile strikes or sabotage, most of it would be non-lethal.  One the junta is blinded, the Russians would essentially engage the Ukie commanders in a "surrender or else" dialog. The vast majority will at this point gladly surrender.  Those few who will chose "or else" will be destroyed in precision strikes.  That's it.  I do not expect WWII tank battles to take place.  Cities like Dnepropetrovsk or Kharkov will not be turned into Grozny in 2000.

The Ukie military machine is extremely weak and all it will take is hitting a few well-chosen trigger points, and then it will collapse.  Again, judging by Crimea and by what has happened so far in the Donbass, the vast majority of the Ukrainian officers will be *immensely relived* to be "defeated".  By the way, the Russians went out of their way to treat the Ukrainian forces in Crimea with utmost respect - both those who did surrender and those who decided to hold out and be evacuated.  Putin personally issued a decree not only to treat all the Ukrainian military personnel with professional courtesy but even to treat the *symbols* of Ukrainian statehood (flags, insignia, etc.) with utmost respect.  The same will happen this time.

The Ukies made "prisoner" will be offered to join the Russian military, their pensions will quadruple overnight, their ranks and diplomas recognized and most will even be left in command of their own units.

I have to say that this idyllic situation will not apply to the neo-Nazis and assorted oligarch-paid thugs.  Those will be killed, ruthlessly and with no mercy.  Any Right Sector thug or foreign mercenary captured will get a 10min "conversation" somewhere behind an APC and then will be executed.  But that will be a very small amount of cases about which we will probably never learn anyway.

I honestly don't know how far the Russian military intervention would go, it might well be confined to only the easternmost part of the Ukraine (where the current Ukrainian attack forces are concentrated).  That really depends on the reaction in the West.  If the US/NATO continue to refuse to negotiate the Russians might push further, but not beyond the Dniepr.

Remember the 08.08.08 war: its purpose was never to seize and hold land, it was to take Saakshvili's ulgy toys away.  Once the Georgian military basically disappeared the Russians withdrew.  The same will happen in the Ukraine.  The Russian will destroy the repressive machine of the junta in Kiev and then stop.

Think *forces*, not territory.

Russia cannot and has no desire to "occupy" the Ukraine.  All that talk about a new Afghanistan in the Ukraine is absolute nonsense.  As soon as they are done, they will withdraw most of their forces and they will help the locals get organized.  Only if the US/NATO do something truly fantastically stupid, like sending in NATO forces into the western Ukraine will the Russians establish a forward security buffer aimed at keeping the AngloZionists on the West side of the Dneipr.  But - honestly - I don't see the US/NATO/EU trying that kind of crap, not because of the Russian military, but because that would mean that they would own all of the worst and poorest part of the rump-Ukraine.

Does anybody really think that the EU wants to own Banderastan?

I sure don't.

Okay, I hope that this clarification has been useful and I apologize again for giving the impression that the Russian military was prepared to use the same tactics as it did in Chechnia.

Kind regards,

The Saker