Ukraine mini-SITREP April 13, 12:40 EST

The situation on the ground is very confused, there are a lot of rumors and few verifiable facts.  Still, a few things are becoming obvious:

1) So far the offensive of the neo-Fascists is lame, at best.  So far, no determined and sustained attack has occurred.  There was an exchange of gunfire with casualties and at least one fatality reported in Slaviansk, but that occurred on the outskirts of the city and the attacking forces withdrew.

2) The quality and determination of the anti-Fascist resistance has dramatically increased over the past 24 hours.  Many more cities have seen uprisings, including cities which in the past had been completely quiet.  From the video footage form the region, the quality of the barricades has also dramatically increased and there are now armed men protecting them.

3) The resistance appears to be much better coordinated and volunteer units are being formed to reinforce the cities under attack (such as Slaviansk).

4) The so-called "anti-terrorist operation" announced by the freaks in Kiev appears to be executed primarily by SBU forces.  There are, so far, no signs of either police or military participation in it.

It is too early to call this one and we need to wait for at least 24 hours before we can make some conclusion.  But my very preliminary impression is that if things continue down this path the east and south of the Ukraine will simply secede from Kiev and the freaks in power there.  What is becoming obvious is that with every passing day the chances of somehow keeping the Ukraine as a unitary state are becoming smaller and smaller.  I cannot say that it would break my heart to see this obscene creation finally collapse in an orgy of incompetence and hateful rhetoric, but I also believe the breakup of the Ukraine will create a lot of headaches for Russia and that that these headaches will be very hard to deal with in the midst of what I can only call "Cold War II".  I still think that a federal unitary Ukraine is the better option, but I am beginning to seriously doubt that this is still possible.

Lastly, as a side bar: the Regnum news agency reports that Alexander Lukashenko has made some really insane statements over the Ukraine including that he is opposed to federalization and that he considers Turchinov to be an honest man how can be trusted.  Not that he makes much of a difference, but I wonder if he is trying to make friendly with the US and EU again or if he basically has gone crazy.

Let's see what the next 24 hours bring.  The situation should become clearer by Monday evening.

Stay tuned,

The Saker