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Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Russian and Hezbollah in consultations

A Hizbullah delegation visited on Monday Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Zasypkin in the Embassy headquarters, and delivered greetings on behalf of Hizbullah's leadership for the presidential victory of Vladimir Putin.  The Hizbullah delegation was led by Head of Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc member Mohammad Raad, and included MP Nawwar Saheli and Hizbullah International Relations Official Ammar Moussawi.  After the meeting, MP Raad indicated that "this visit is appropriate to praise the balanced political role played by Russia in this time period, especially regarding the crises storming across the region".  Moreover, Raad lauded Russia's role which "restores the principles of the UN, enables balance in the UN Security Council, and opens a window of hope for the nations so their just causes would achieve victory".  Regarding the common points discussed during talks between the Hizbullah and Russian officials on the Syrian file, MP Raad asserted, "Russia's stance stems from the root that achieving stability in Syria should be based on a political solution [that is gained] through dialogue between the regime and opposition".
This is all very good news.  In the current political context, it is essential that Russia, China, Iran and Hezbollah closely coordinate their efforts to avoid a US/NATO invasion of Iran and/or Syria on behalf of Israel.

While it is rather obvious that Russia and Hezbollah have had contacts in the past (everybody talks to Hezbollah, whether they deny it or not), it is interesting that this latest meeting was rather public, with even an official photo opportunity (see above).

In the meantime, Press TV is reporting that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has declared that an attack on Iran would be a "huge mistake" and a "catastrophe".

Lastly, Russia declared that it supported a yet to be officially released peace proposal by Kofi Annan provided that two conditions are met:
“The first that Kofi Annan’s proposals be made public and second, that the Security Council approves them not as an ultimatum but, approves them -- taking into account ongoing work -- as a basis for continuing efforts by Kofi Annan with the goal of reaching agreement among all Syrians, the government and the opposition groups, on all urgent issues, access for humanitarian organizations in Syria, an end to violence on all sides and the start of political dialogue and access for the mass media, and so on.” 
In other words, no invasion and no regime change.   In all likelihood, this will be unacceptable to the insurgency unless it is really weakened militarily.  Remember the war in Libya?  The "democratic opposition" categorically rejected all of the many peace plans offered to them by Gaddafi, the OAS and all other mediators.  Likewise, I do not expect the Syrian insurgency (or, rather, their Zionist bosses) to accept any kind of political settlement at this point unless, as I just said, the military balance on the ground shifts in the regime's favor.

The events in Syria, tragic as they are, are still only a side-show to the real thing: the upcoming attack on Iran and I believe that both Russia and China see the Syrian civil war primarily in this bigger context.

The Saker

8 comments:

Robert said...

Good for the Russians. It still doesn't make up for the way they sold Iran down the river by cancelling the S-300 contract however.

Robert said...

Even supposing Iran really is attempting to achieve a nuclear capability the assertion that Iran will attack Israel as soon as it acquires the bomb is preposterous. The risk is nearly zero.

If two states in enmity both possess nuclear arms so that state A is capable of destroying state B and vice versa, neither of them will use their bomb, knowing that if they did, they would bring their own annihilation on themselves.

Zionist propaganda has claimed that Iran is a suicidal nation. The rulers of the Islamic Republic the argument goes, would gladly give up their lives along with that of their nation for the joy of genocide. This nonsense is based on a flagrant disregard for the most obvious fact of Iranian society since 1979 namely that the millionaire mullahs do everything possible to hang on to power and capital. Martyrdom is not for them. Heaven they might believe in but no empirically discernable policies exist that indicate a willingness to sacrifice power, capital or earthly existence for higher ideological or religious goals. In this regard they are as rational as any other ruling class on earth.

Even if the mullahs were driven by religious fervour and considered the extermination of the Jewish state as their theological duty the third holiest site of Islam, the Al-Aqsa mosque, would perish with Israel in any successful nuclear strike, as would a major segment of the Palestinian Muslim people.

Equally absurd is the idea that the centres of power in Iran, arranged around Al-Faqih, would allow nuclear warheads to fall into the hands of terrorist organisations outside the mullahs' control.

So the "Israel is threatened with a new Holocaust" spin put about by Bibi and his AIPAC colleagues reflects a different fear entirely.

Robert said...

continued..

The Iranian threat so worrying to Israel and to the US must be another. And that threat is the levelling of the imbalance of terror in the Middle East. Israel will not tolerate a situation of Mutual Assured Destruction. The strategic deadlock MAD tends to foster, the inhibitions against adventurous aggression it imposes on military planners, that is what the State of Israel fears.

There is a deep fear for the existence of Israel as a Zionist state founded on the continuous expulsion of the Palestinian people. Peres declared in July 1998 that Israel built "a nuclear option not in order to have a Hiroshima but an Oslo" In translation this means that the Zionist state amassed the world's fourth or fifth largest arsenal of the deadliest weapons of mass destruction to ensure a balance of force in the region that enables Israel to put the occupation of Palestine on a permanent footing.

With another nuclear power in the Middle East Israel would not be able to act as ruthlessly as it has in the last half century. How could it denigrate states backing the Palestinians as unworthy of consideration when drawing up borders or dictating "peace accords" if one of them has a nuclear option? How could it casually let off missiles in Syria's direction if its ally Iran had a nuclear bomb? To have such restraint foisted on Israel would shake the very foundations of its power.

Bottom line: a nuclear Iran is very unlikely to happen, but if it did it would be a huge leap forward for the Middle East and a catastrophe for USraelian imperialism.

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@Robert: . it still doesn't make up for the way they sold Iran down the river by cancelling the S-300 contract however

I totally agree. Nor does it make up for the betrayal of Iran at the UNSC (when Russia voted for sanctions)

Even supposing Iran really is attempting to achieve a nuclear capability the assertion that Iran will attack Israel as soon as it acquires the bomb is preposterous.

It is not about nukes, its about Iran becoming a successful regional power, which can inspire Muslims worldwide, support the Shia regionally, and offer a model of socio-economic development which simply cannot be allowed to succeed. A country which openly declares Israel a racist regime, which dumps the dollar for other currencies, which inspires the resistance to the Saudi Salafists AND the Zionist racists, which declares that moral-religious principles are superior to simply greed, profit and economic output and which therefore simply cannot be tolerated, not by Israel, not by the US Empire.

So all that nonsense about Iranian nukes is just the same crap as the very same nonsense about Iraqi nukes under Saddam: a pretext for aggression. All the noise around the IAEA, the NPT, a regional nuke-free zone, enrichment is just a strategic psyop operation which the Empire is throwing at us to distract us from the real aim: to achieve regime change in Iran, be it by supporting a color-coded revolution, terrorist separatist groups, economic sanctions (which are legally speaking acts of war already), threats of war and, of course, war itself.

What Israel wants to do to Iran what it did to Lebanon, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip: punish those who commit the crime of "voting wrong". But since Israel does not have the military means to do to Iran what it did to Lebanon, it needs its attack dog, the USA, to do the job for it. And since there are plenty of folks in the USA who see through all this and have much to loose in this folly, there is a multi-year long internal battle between what I call the "old Anglo finance lobby" and the '"Israel lobby" over this entire plan.

jack said...

@Robert

I think Israel, the west and the Arab countries see Israel which up to this period has allowed Iran to expand its influence as an historic bulwark along with Turkey against Russia in the Caspian and Central Asian region.
Off course the west and Israel have and are pushing for Turkish domination as the regional superpower along with allied Turkic states Islamist or not to control the Eurasian energy market which is more aggressive under the Democratic administrations in the US.

STRATFOR e-mail said that Turkey and Israel were working together to crack the S-300 system.

Actually I think in a few years the west is getting ready to dump Saudi Arabia (thank god) as more oil and gas markets are opened in new territory especially near the Caspian region and questions surrounding Saudi Arabian links to 9/11 will start to get more mainstream media attention in the mass media.

@VINEYARDSAKER

Hoping for Iran to join in on the Nabucco pipeline the US and EU whose companies also help develop their nuclear industry like Germanys Siemens IT that actually helps run the power plants although I am not 100% sure about that.

It wasn’t until 9/11 that there seems to be an Israeli driven shift to go against Iran’s nuclear program.

If you look at the ethnic map of Iran you can see that the Kurdish regions control the transit areas that Nabucco would have to transit from Iran through Turkey that bypasses Russia giving Israel political leverage.

http://joshberer.wordpress.com/maps/iran-afghanistan-and-central-asia/

I think like the former USSR western intelligence has contacts and allies within divisions of the Iranian establishment from the old guard Islamists.

Robert Baer said that Mousavi the Green candidate was involved in running Iranian intelligence and terrorism against the US in Lebanon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAjTIZ0vvaY

jack said...

The first paragrapgh aimed at Robert I completely messed up and do not have a clue as to what I meant to write in the first sentence.

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@Jack:The first paragraph I completely messed up and do not have a clue as to what I meant to write in the first sentence.

LOL! You sound like me on my "distracted" days...

Welcome to the club :-)

jack said...

@VINEYARDSAKER

I usually write in the early hours of the morning and edit my comments which usually results in me forgetting to finish sentences after deleted parts of another sentence plus I usually like to post links in my comments which I have to look for which takes longer.

I use a wireless keyboard that sometimes does not register keys if I type to fast.

In regards to the post it is interesting Russia would have such public contact with Hezbollah.

There were reports in the past of Russian FSB helping Hezbollah round up a Mossad spy ring on the Debka website and the Russian intelligence officer in Lebanon that ended up dead floating near the Russia port in Tartus of a “heart attack” which sounds similar to how Robert Maxwell died.

This is off topic but something that I have been following is US and western funded NGO’s support for repatriation and recognition of the Circassian genocide.

http://www.evolutsia.net/syrian-unrest-and-the-dilemma-of-circassian-repatriation/

http://news.rambler.ru/13200218/

How will Russia respond?

Strategic Culture website has produced some good commentary on the issue.

http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2012/02/16/circassian-theme-of-syria-tragedy.html

http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2011/11/14/the-west-plays-cherkess-card-against-russia.html

http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2010/12/28/geopolitical-games-around-greater-circassia.html

http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2011/04/22/circassian-issue-in-the-spotlight.html