Russian and western media outlets are reporting that Obama has offered a deal to the Russians: help us with Iran and we will not deploy the anti-missile system in Europe (see, for example, here). Officially, the American logic goes like that: IF the Iranians drop their nuclear program and IF they stop the development of long-range missiles, THEN there is no more need for an anti-missile system in Europe.
Talk about nonsense...
The reality is, of course, that the anti-missile system in Europe was aimed at Russia, everybody knows that, and the only reason why Obama is preparing to abandon it is the combination of two simple facts:
a) having lost is airbases in Central Asia, the US now needs Russia more than ever before to at least passively tolerate the US war effort in Afghanistan
b) the Russians have come up with a combination of long range and short range missiles (the RS-24 and the Iskander) which completely negate any military advantage the proposed anti-missile system in Europe could have given the USA.
In less than a year, this is yet another major victory for Russia. Having pushed the US military out of Central Asia, having crushed the US proxy in South Ossetia and Georgia, Russia is now forcing the USA into a humiliating step down from its missile plans in Europe.
Some credit has to be given to Obama and his puppeteers for recognizing reality for what it is and for acting on it. Both sides will now make face-saving statements about "no linkage" and the like, but the writing is on the wall: the USA is not nearly the superpower it likes to fancy itself to be. Now - that's official.
Will the Russians 'help' the Americans in dealing with Iran? Yes, sure, but only in a way the Iranians themselves want: to finally get a constructive negotiation going on all the outstanding issues between Iran and the USA including, first and foremost, the situation in Iraq. That is, I predict, the extend of 'help' the USA will get from Medvedev.
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Medvedev himself has denied this information:
http://en.rian.ru/world/20090303/120403903.html
I would love to see one more Russian victory over the US, but to tell the truth, I don't think that Obama will really drop the anti-missile defense. Perhaps he will try a bit harder to compromise with the Russians, but it won't change much from the previous government: all he will do is to "assure" the Russians that the system is not aimed against them.
@Carlo: keep in mind that the anti-missile defense really makes no sense, at least militarily. Its only real purpose was to threaten Russia but since Russia has already negated this there is no point whatsoever, other than spite, to keep this thing there.
Who knows what Obama's pupetteers will do, but my guess is that they will pull the plug on this nonsense.
My 2cts.
"keep in mind that the anti-missile defense really makes no sense, at least militarily. Its only real purpose was to threaten Russia but since Russia has already negated this there is no point whatsoever, other than spite, to keep this thing there."
True. But it is also big money for defense contractors who surely don't want it to be cancelled.
Anyway, the very Medvedev denied that there is trade between Russia and the US to solve the anti-missile defense.
@Carlo: Medvedev denied that there is trade between Russia and the US to solve the anti-missile defense.
Well, yeah, sure. And the Yanks said that we are not talking about a deal, but about incentives. So what? That is *exactly* the kind of language both sides must have in order to make it happen.
As for the defense contractors, sure, they will have to find other contracts, but its not like the USA has some disposible cash right now. The Empire is bankrupt and its military toys are of little use to its *real* wars.
I really hope you're right, Saker. After all, like I said in my first comment, I would love to see one more Russian victory over the US. Soon we will know.
"That is, I predict, the extend of 'help' the USA will get from Medvedev."
Which is still more than it deserves, IMHO.
It just goes to show how UNseriously the U.S. takes the threat of Wahabist extremism. Here are two countries (Iran and Russia) which would be happy to cooperate if that were the real problem The U.S. wanted to address.
But the whole purpose is to knock down those two countries who would be helpful.
And they're not even subtle about it. Neither Iran nor Russia are perfect. But both are both pretty old countries with a long experience of statecraft and highly sophisticated diplomacy. And yet the U.S. does the international equivalent of trying to distract a child with shiny balloon.
Also, saker, if you could tell us about how Russia's new missiles could defeat the anti-missile system...
@Lysander: I fully agree with you here, neither Russia nor Iran are perfect, far from it but they are the two countries which can do the most about opposing Wahabis. But since the USA has turned into an Israeli client-state it has essentially given up any thought of defending its own national security interests. It is, instead, genuflecting to whatever the Israelis and their Lobby in the USA demand.
Anyway,
To answer your question about the Russian systems: although much of it is, obviously, secret, we know that these missiles have very advanced and redundant guidance systems, decoy warheads, terminal guidance, manoeuvring capabilities, etc. all of which are designed to overwhelm the calculations of the computers running the anti-missile systems. Antimissile systems are designed for the interception of a missile on a flight and re-entry course which has to be calculated in advance before the interceptor can be fired. The Russian systems make that impossible.
Think of it this way: shooting down a bullet with another bullet might be possible with very powerful computers and radars, but shooting down a manoeuvring bullet?
@Lysander: oh, and I forgot. The Iskander can fly both a ballistic missile and a cruise missile course. And each TEL (ransporter, erector, launcher)has two missiles on board. Imagine trying to predict how these missiles will be coming in....
"The reality is, of course, that the anti-missile system in Europe was aimed at Russia, everybody knows that,"
Except Americans.
Because the TV said that the missile shield was aimed at Iran, and Americans are not too particular about geography.
Also, one main point here.
The missiles in the anti-missile shield - what kind are they? Are they really anti-missile missiles or perhaps they are just plain old missiles - as in short to medium range nuclear missiles?
Who really knows?
@Saker: “"keep in mind that the anti-missile defence really makes no sense, at least militarily…”
Not now, not maybe for a little while, but they keep working on it. It could be 2012, or 2030 it doesn’t matter. It’s the only way to get out from the nuclear choke the Russians have on the US. And I’m pretty sure that they will keep trying.
Even though the States are currently not in the position where they have plenty of room for a manoeuvre I doubt that they will let the opportunity go. It took a lot of for them to get through to the point where they are. They’ve got ok from Europe, the Czechs ant the Poles. That’s all that was needed. The Russians can threaten Europe with Iskander as long as they want who cares - it’s the dumb Europe who gets to be targeted.
And if the Russians will cut off the Afghanistan supply or won‘t help with Iran - f.ck Afghanistan, f.ck Iran. They are too minor. The AMD must be implemented first in Europe then in Japan, then in Georgia, Ukraine… Tajikistan whatever. It MUST be done. Period.
And if Obama doesn’t understand it yet - he will be enlightened and pretty soon.
Ever since the US had failed to drive Russia to a complete collapse all it does - just tightens it’s grip on Russia. NATO encircling, the AMD in Europe. The US has been pushing Japan to participate in their Far East AMD. Russia has warned the Japs that they didn’t approve the idea but Japan seems to like it so far.
It’s assumed that the US activity in Central Asia is all about the resources it wants to control. But it’s not just that. The USA has under control practically all Middle East resources. And that’s plenty. By controlling Central Asia the US wants to make sure it weakens Russia. China too, of course but militarily China is not a treat to the US or Russia. The country doesn’t even have technologies to build own anti ballistic defence. You can’t consider a country with an army wielding AK47 a treat. Even if it’s a big army. The Japs back in 193s didn’t bother it’s size, even though the Japs themselves were armed with rifles. It’s nice to have China around though. General public may get bored to stay scared by Arabs or Russia. So big, communist Chinese army comes handy.
In Central Asia the US wants to stay. Indefinitely. Just like in Afghanistan. Build military bases and stay. Then, step by step continue with anti-missile defence encircling of Russia wherever they could manage it.
They got kicked out off there. But it’s just for now. The US will be back in the region. And I doubt that they will back off with the AMD in Europe. Obama might delay it but to cancel it? Very unlikely.
Add to that the American Goy’s point. Exactly. Once Pentagon is there with it’s missiles who would control it? It’s just too good for the US to be missed. They made a mistake once when took their Pershings from Europe. Not this time.
@Alibi: you know, I don't disagree with much of what you write. In fact, I agree with most of it. But...
But the Empire is running out of money, it is broke. Not only that, but ever since it has become a client-state of Israel it has de-facto placed itself in the horrible position to have to fight the rest of the planet (at varying degrees) over the issue of Israel.
Not only that, but by itself the Empire is collapsing. Yes, it lost Central Asia. But is ALSO lost Latin America (except Colombia, that is). I personally predict that the next big loss will be the Ukraine, although this one will take more time and will be more gradual.
And then there is China. Sure, the Chinese military is, for the time being, a paper dragon, not even able to threaten Vietnam. But China is also an economic powerhouse with very talented people. And they are re-amring, re-training, re-organizing, really really fast. And they don't need to threaten anybody. They just need to be a credible regional power in the Pacific to take away a key element of the US foreign policy in Asia. Oh, and they own Walmart.
That is another hugely important factor. The Chinese have the power to crush the US economy, albeit at the cost of their own, of course. So it is another version of MAD, Mutually Assured Destruction. But in the long term, China is diversifying and getting stronger whereas the USA is tumbling down. And remember - China is not a client-state of anybody, least of all of Israel.
So while what you are describing is an accurate description of the Neocon dreams, the reality will not match this dream simply because of the objective factors which make it impossible.
One cute illustration: Russia just opened a 24 hour Russian-TV language channel covering all of Latin America because there are so much Russian-speakers there.
Not a coincidence, I tell you, not a coincidence :-))
I hope you are right. I really do
Ukrainian national security service agents have raided the head office of the state energy firm Naftogaz in Kiev.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7923271.stm
/FkD
Yes, I also saw this. It is another round in the Yushchenko/Timoshenko fight.
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