ALL OF THIS IS NONSENSE!
First, neither the Israelis, nor the Palestinians, not anyone else will be able to really know what effect this ground operation will really have on the ground. It will take a least 48 hours to get a sense of what really happened on the ground in military terms.
Second, the outcome will be result of *perceptions*. If Hamas fights Israel from day one until the exit of the Israelis then this operation will be deemed as a failure by most people. If Hamas "folds" and accepts some kind of "deal" then it will be an Israeli "victory".
Thirdly, time is on Hamas' side: following the first 48 hours, each passing day things will see things get worse for the Israelis. Therefore, my guess is that if Hamas succeeds in actively resisting for one week or so the Israelis will essentially be defeated. If Hamas "folds" it will be very soon, in the next couple of days.
For the first time in their history the Palestinians have the opportunity to inflict a painful defeat upon the Israelis. Hopefully, they will seize it.
8 comments:
Wow, I can't believe they went in. This is for all the marbles. If Hamas pulls a Hezzie on them, then things are going to be really really bad for the Israelis. Pity poor Gaza. Too bad it had to come to this. This is probably the closest thing to what Hamas and the IDF will experience you'll ever see, but it's real for them. What a shame.
I'm really very depressed here. Outside of the cities, Gaza is flat and not much place for any kind of guerrilla war. Inside the cities, I'm afraid Israel will shell it like they did Beirut in 1982. In fact, I believe this is the same kind of deal.
In '82, they talked about keeping the north free of missiles, but the goal was to install the Phalangists in power. Now I'm thinking the intent is to put the quisling Abbas and Fatah in power.
If it goes well for them, you can bet Israel will look for a Hizbollah rematch later this year. Then on to Iran.
At least I think that's their plan. I just don't see how Hamas could hold out. I don't think Israel will run away if they suffer a few casualties. Its too important for them to crush Hamas. If they suffer losses, they will spin it as grim determination in the western media.
Hamas' has 2 options;
1)Keep fighting and hope that Mubarak will feel pressured and speak out. But now The Israelis don't need him. They can close Rafah themselves.
2) Go to ground entirely and not fire a single shot from inside the cities. Just do an Iraq style resistance with roadside bombs and sniper attacks and wait for the Israelis to leave.
The latter option seems better. They have no chance fighting toe to toe and they should try to spare the population from the brunt of urban combat. Hamas is not Hizbollah. There is no shame in that. They don't have the terrain advantage or the strategic depth of much larger Lebanon and no where near the access to weaponry that Hizb has.
And Hizb didn't have to fight half starved form the first moment.
International pressure, can't help. There was much more pressure on Israel in '82 and they really didn't care.
There is a metric to measure success with over here: the amount of pain that Hamas can cause Israel despite Israel's full blown efforts to mitigate it's situation. Even if the world ends up awarding an 'A for effort' to Hamas' fighters, and they end up inflicting heavy damages on Israeli ground forces, if Israel is able to neutralize the Hamas' ability to extract a price, it will be a win for Israel, because they will be able to once again do whatever they wish to the Palestinians without having answer to anyone. They don't care who is running Gaza, they will continue the dance with Fatah either way.In Lebanon the frequency of Rocket attacks was maintained throughout the war. In Gaza it is already starting to dwindle.
What would be really interesting would be Hamas organizing rocket attacks from northern Egypt or western Jordan, forcing the autocratic regimes to choose between doing Israel's dirty work for them or surrendering their sovereignty and allowing Israel free reign inside their country's territory. Either choice could spark a huge political shift inside their own borders.
Masoud
Obviously, This is exactly what Hamas wanted. Israel has fallen for the bate in the same way the United States did! Bush's apparent lack of reaction just shows that.Then look back at Great Britain and how they were able to stop terrorism from Northern Ireland. This "not speaking up" will alos intensify the hatred that Arab Nations have against us. We are also falling for the bate by not speaking up so the Arab Nations will again have more hatred for us. Obama has hugh burdent to speak up as soon as he is in office or this issue might become the next huge crisis.
HISTORY was once defined as the sound of young men in jack boots going up the front stairs and the whisper of old men in slippers going down the back stairs. I suggest the real battle ground here is Israeli airports where scores of families of businessmen,professionals,academics,scientists,ect. depart for extended stays in the West. Algeria part 2. Israeli is over...checkmate.
I really didn’t think that the Israelis will enter Gaza. I can only feel sorry for the Palestinians now.
The Israelis went in for good. They can’t leave without wiping out Hamas. And they can’t wipe out Hamas without wiping out most of the male population in Gaza.
It will most likely be another Chechnya.
Brussels, 14th January 2008
Since the beginning of this war, Tsahal admitted the death of ten of its soldiers, three of them being killed by "friendly fire". Being a former officer, dare I say that in all armies'manuals, it is mentioned that street fight is especially bloody, with other words, these admitted figure makes no sense especially as it is repeatedly said that Hamas fighters put up a "fierce resistance" and had plenty of time to "prepare" this kind of war.
As to the idea of "eradicating" Hamas, I am convinced that they are now sowing the seeds of more trouble for the coming years.Half the Gaza population is under 15 and we can imagine that being a boy of 16, with your parents killed and home destroyed, you shall live with an idee fixe ie.to take one's vengeance. This is plain common sense.
And we are far from a peace which entails a full Palestine territory, free of "settlers".
But after all, Israel is de facto the 51st U.S.State, so they don't have to worry about their future.
Maxim
希望大家都會非常非常幸福~
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當它在宇宙的遊歷結束之後，它自然會來到你身邊，以你曾經希望的方式回應你，許下，只是讓它發生，放下，才是讓>它實現，你的心願使你懂得不能執著的奧秘...................深秋的芒草又開了嗎？你循著去年秋天走過的小徑來到芒花如海浪起伏的野地。和記憶中一樣的風景風溫度濕度甚至風吹過臉頰的速度也是一樣的你循著小徑往前走漸漸有了某種幻覺彷彿可以就這樣一路走回去年秋天的從前然而這是另一個秋天了一個和了一以前不同的秋天一個此時的秋天時的在這個秋天之中的時你也的是一個和以前不同的你一個此時的你此時新生之時親愛的繼續往前走吧穿越過感傷的小徑與想念的芒絮之的芒後你將會再度重逢新生的自己。哪裡出了錯?為什麼你的總心是裡有那麼多的恐懼和猜疑不安和失落那你看那風中的飛花它從不為明日擔憂只是輕盈地悠遊自在地來去當一朵花還棲止在枝頭上的時候它不過是一棵樹的一部份唯有當它從枝頭落下才成為它自己因此親愛的你現在所攀附的枝頭也並不是你全部的世界雖是你然它提供了你目前所需了的養份但總有一天你會發現另一個真正會屬於你的世界那時你將像是一朵飛花在風中輕盈地悠遊自地盈在地來去
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