Obama, Kerry, the Ukrainian military, Yulia and Klichko

Over the past couple of hours it was it was interesting to observe the reactions to the Russian decision to be read to use military force in the Ukraine.  Let's take them one by one

Obama and Kerry: frankly, I did not expect much, by I still was baffled by how out of touch the White House is with the real world.  To deter Putin from using armed force, the White House decided to threaten him boycott  the next G8 summit in Russia.  Boo hoo!!  I am sure that Putin is now terrified.  Not.  Listening to the Idiot in Chief and his Secretary of State I truly marveled that this still threw the full political weight and credibility of the USA behind a government which even Iatseniuk himself called a "kamikaze government'. Anybody with an IQ at or above room temperature understands that this so called "Ukrainian government" is bound to fail if only because it literally has no money to do *anything*.  And yet, the boneheads in Washington are totally backing this quasi-dead regime.

The Ukrainian military: I am sure that you have heard that the Ukrainian military is now on maximal alert and is read to repel any Russian aggression.  Guys, this is laughable.  There IS NO UKRAINIAN MILITARY.  There is a lot of old hardware lying around, there are a number of units with basically zero training and there are a few units of higher combat readiness.  Do you know what that list is called in military terms? It's called *TARGETS*. I also suspect that if the western politicians and a few Ukie crackpots speak about the Ukrainian armed forces, the officers there, and even the soldiers, fully realize that they are just targets. Hence the wise decision of the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy, the Hetman Sahaidachny frigate, to quickly switch sides even before getting back home (it is in eastern the Mediterranean according to the latest reports).  I suppose you all know that the notion of the Ukies developing their own nuclear weapons is laughable, so I will not bother dwelling on it now.

Yulia and Klichko: As I suspected from her appearance on the Maidan, Yulia clearly lost it and her latest statement about the crisis just proves to me that she is "gone fishing".  In contrast, however, and to be great surprise, it was Klichko who came out with the sanest proposal: he wants to create a special commission in Kiev tasked with negotiating a peaceful resolution of the current crisis between Kiev and Moscow.  Unlike Yulia's hysterical nonsense, Kichko's statement contained no grandstanding or lyrical appeals.  It was all business-like and pragmatic.  Well, who knows, maybe the man can get something done since  I am quite sure that as long as the Ukies do not use force in the east or south the Russians will stay on high alert, but on their side of the border.

That's it for this short update.  Later today I hope to have the time to post a somewhat more analytical look at the recent developments.

Cheers,

The Saker

Short follow up on the recent personal announcement

Dear friends,

I just wanted to let you know that I have been reading your replies to my personal announcement with amazement and a deepest sense of gratitude.  I shall post a substantive reply to what you have written as soon as I find a minute to do so, but right now the situation in the Ukraine is far more important, so that is why I will focus on in priority.  I ask for your understanding and patience, and I promise to reply very soon.

Many thanks and kind regards,

The Saker

Obama just made things much, much worse in the Ukraine - now Russia is ready for war

Something absolutely huge has just happened in Russia: the Russian Council of the Federation, the equivalent of the US Senate, has just UNANIMOUSLY passed a resolution allowing Putin to use Russian armed forces in the Ukraine, something the Duma had requested earlier.  Before the vote took place, Russian senators said that Obama had threatened Russia, insulted the Russian people and that they demanded that Putin recall the Russian ambassador to the USA.  I have never seen such a level of outrage and even rage in Russia as right now.

I hope and pray that Obama, and his advisers, stop and think carefully about their next step because make no mistake about that RUSSIA IS READY FOR WAR.

Now, the resolution of the Council of the Federation does not, repeat, NOT, mean that Russian forces will move into the Ukraine.  Key Russian politicians have already spoken out and clarified that all this did was give the authority to Putin to use the armed forces, but that he was free to decide on whether this was needed or not.

Yet, this is a warning which should not be taken lightly.  The way I see it, it not only means that Russia will act to protect Crimea, but that there is a real possibility that Russia could even use its armed forces elsewhere in the Ukraine and this is a huge development.

In the past days I have listened to many Russian experts, lots of talkshows, political statements, etc. and I was amazed by the fact that nobody even suggested that Russia should intervene militarily.  Everybody agreed that Russia should support the Russian speakers in the Ukraine politically, financially, and morally.  But nobody mentioned the use of force.  So what happened since?

1) some kind of attack on Crimea overnight
and
2) Obama's absolutely imbecile and reckless threats against Russia

And this combination really set things off.  Now, every single political party in the Council of the Federation and every single representative have voted to allow the use of Russian armed force.  That would be the equivalent of the US President getting each member of the House and the Senate to vote to allow him to wage war.

I need to make something else clear here: no amounts of threats will stop the Kremlin now, all that will achieve is to get even more of the public reaction of support for Putin.  And if some wannabe Napoleon or Hitler decided to try to use military forces against Russia the latter will go to war, no matter who is standing against it.

The USA and the EU have to realize that they dangerously overplayed their hand in the Ukraine: they have used neo-Nazis to overthrow a totally corrupt and incompetent President, but a legitimate one, in the process they have wrecked the Ukrainian state apparatus, by allowing so much wanton violence and racist slogans they have totally freaked out the eastern and southern Ukraine, and by either conducting or allowing an attack on Crimea they have threatened the Russian population and the Black Sea Fleet.  That is yet another absolute and TOTAL DISASTER of the Obama Presidency.  This man is as dishonest, as he is mediocre, arrogant and reckless and I hope and pray that the US Joint Chiefs are going to have a "frank exchange of views" with him as soon as possible.  In an ideal world, the Congress should have impeached that despicable loser, but since they are even worse then him, it is for the JCS to act.

The Russians are united, they are really angry and they know that they have the military strength to defend their country and their people in the near abroad.  I don't recommend anybody doubt their resolve because if Russia is attacked its response will be devastating: think 08.08.08 but on a vast scale.

I think that a disaster can, and will, be avoided.  I even hope that the Russian military will not move into the Ukraine, but the US has to rein in both the insurgency government and the Fascists in the streets and tell them all to "cool it".  The next necessary step is to spot the nationalists from trying to seize further buildings in the east and southern Ukraine.  Last, but not least, the USA and Russia should get together to strike some deal which would allow the Ukraine to formally survive as a unitary state, but make it a de-facto confederation with a purely symbolic presidency.

The leaders of the USA and the EU have to now understand that they are playing with fire and that this is not a "Ukrainian" problem: now they themselves are at risk of ending up in a war against Russia, possibly a nuclear one.  And even if they never admit to that publicly, they need to at least have to courage to admit to themselves that they themselves created that situation and that the responsibility for it is fully theirs.

The Saker

Important personal announcement about this blog

Dear friends,

I have decided to take a short break for the torrent of news about the Ukraine to share with you an important development in the life of this blog: two days ago, last Thursday, the number of daily visitors to this blog has passed 10'000 to peak at an amazing 11'538 visitors!  Now, some of them are webcrawlers, search engines, double visitors and my own, but the 10'000 visitors limit has clearly been passed now:

As for the total number of visitors to this blog since its modest beginning in 2007, it will soon pass one million visits:

In fact, since 2013 and especially recently, the number of visitors has literally exploded:

Which is wonderful, especially since the visitors come from all over the world:

 

That is the good news.

There is also bad news.

The bad news is that this is a one-man blog.  I do that alone, with no help.  Worse, I actually have a life outside blogging: a job, a wonderful and much beloved wife, three kids aged (13,16 and 17), I try to do sports (mountain biking, kayaking and free diving) and I have hobbies (reading, photography, jazz guitar and computers); I am working on a Master's thesis in Orthodox theology, and I try to eat and sleep on a semi-regular basis. On the bad side, we also have a credit card debt we cannot reduce and we live literally from paycheck to paycheck, form month to month (I don't make a single penny from the blog).

Since the beginning crisis in the Ukraine began, I have been getting something like 30-50 emails every day.  And I have tried really really hard to answer them all.

On top of that, you can see for yourself that the number of comments on each post now is typically in the 30-50 comments, each of which I have to read and clear personally for blogger to display it.  I also try to answer most comments.  

And then there are the longer analytical post which I write from time to time like the one of the geopolitics of the Ukrainian conflict or the one on the roots of Ukrainian nationalism (roughly 7000 words!) which, even though I typically write them in one long session with no breaks, still take me a full day to write.

Oh, and did I mention I also spend several hours per day trying to inform myself about what is happening, trying to weed out the crap for the real fact in order to get a sense of what is really happening?

What I end up doing is doing all of the above simultaneously with me "normal" life.  For that I use my computer, my Nexus 7 Internet tablet and my smartphone.  I even often wake up at night to take a quick look at the tablet and clear any posts made during the night.

Now, please get me right, I am not complaining.  In fact, I *LOVE* what I do and the immense outpouring of support and kind encouragements motivates me like nothing else.  When I began this blog in 2007 I did it mainly to do something I could never do before in my life: to really speak my mind freely, with nobody to tell me not to say or write this or that, with no boss to fear or please, with no regard at all the reactions my writing might elicit.  I made no efforts at all to advertise this blog, never promoted it anywhere, and I did not give a damn about what kind people would get offended or mad at me.  My other goal was to create a space for free and intelligent discussion between people of different opinions who would know that no matter what they said I would never censor them.  The only thing which I ever refused to post in the comments section was outright commercial spam.  As for the rest, it was a 100% free environment in which the sanction for a ugly or stupid comment could only come in the form of a fact-based and logical reply, but never a ban.

In my wildest dreams I would never have imagined the kind of success this blog is enjoying now.  And, believe me, I am delighted.  But I cannot continue at the same pace, I am 50 year old now and I am physically compelled to decide on priorities.

I promise that I will do my utmost to keep things going as they do now, but I have to warn you about a few things which will have to change, at least somewhat:

1) I cannot commit to replying to every email I get.  Sorry, but if I have to chose between a comment read by 10'000+ people or the email of a single person, I have to chose the former.  I will still try to do my best but I cannot promise and answer to every email, so please do not get offended if you do not get a reply in the future.

2) The same goes for comments.  If I have to chose between a comment which asks about something I have already covered elsewhere, or a basic question and a comment which can generate an interesting conversation of offers an interesting insight, I will have to chose the latter.  I simply cannot keep up trying to answer most comments as before.

Guys, I BEG you: if at all possible, always chose to post a comment and only send me an email if that is to share something personal or confidential.  If you want to share your opinion, ask for mine or ask a question, please, PLEASE use the comments section!!

Also, I want to clarify something about my mailing list.  Guys, this is a low-volume mailing list.  What I mean by that is that I only send out something if I want to draw the attention to something I posted on the blog or when I want to send out a message to my readers.  This is not a way to let you know that something has been posted. For that, please use an RSS client and enter this feed into it: 

Atom: 1.0: http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default
RSS:   2.0: http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default?alt=rss

Also - I want to reiterate something I wrote many many times here but which is worth repeating yet again: there is no such thing as "off-topic" on this blog! (well, except spam and truly moronic meaningless posts).  Please feel free to use the comments section under ANY post to make ANY comment you want: share news, ask questions, provide links, etc.  You will find out that amongst those who comment here there are FAR more interesting and knowledgeable people then myself.  Enjoy that and don't worry about 'off-topicking' - any interesting issue is interesting no matter where no matter when.

I want to conclude this personal announcement about this blog by thanking you all from the very bottom of my heart for the outpouring of support, kindness and (wholly undeserved) compliments.  I had no idea that there was such a hunger for freedom and truth out there or such a rage and disgust at the lying corporate media machine.  I feel honored and privileged at the thought that my modest efforts can be a part of a much larger "mental liberation movement" on the Internet and the citizen-reporter front.  I will still continue to do the best I can on my own little section of the "battlefield" (especially when there are "hot" events taking place), but I ask for your understanding and indulgence if you notice that I cannot answer your email or post: this will in no way be a sign of my lack of interest or appreciation but only a sign of the fact that I am not 20 years old and that I have a finite level of energy I can use every day.

A big "thank you!!" to all, keep me in your prayers and kind regards,

The Saker

Senators suggest recalling Russia’s ambassador from US over Obama speech

RT reports that Russian Senators are going to ask President Vladimir Putin to consider recalling Moscow’s Ambassador to the USA following President Barack Obama’s “aggressive” comments on the situation in Ukraine, the chamber speaker said.

Nationalists captured by pro-Russian crowd in Kharkov

This just sent to me by "T" (thanks!):

The nationalists who had seized the local administration building have been evicted by a pro-Russian crowd after a nasty fight, they are now surrounded by cops who protect them form the angry crowd which is screaming "this is Kharkov, not Kiev!" and "Fascists!":

Huge pro-Russian rallies today in Kharkov and Donetsk

Kharkov

 

Donetsk

 

Some kind of attack on Crimea definitely happened yesterday

First, a shot bullet style news update from the Ukraine:

• New government in Kiev declared that Russia had deployed 6'000 soldiers to the Ukraine.
• A car with 400kg of TNT-equivalent explosives was intercepted a a checkpoint yesterday in Crimea.  There is no word on the diver or possible passengers.
• Crimean authorities had decided to hold the referendum on the status of Crimea on March 30th, and not May 25th as originally decided.
• Gazprom is threatening to cancel the rebate on gas it had granted the Ukraine in December saying that the Ukraine had not paid on time.
• Authorities in Crimea have declared that nationalist insurgents had attempted to seize control of the building of the Internal Ministry building in Crimea.  That assault was repelled by local militias, but there are casualties.
• There are reports of a number of APC intercepted during an attempt to enter the Crimean peninsula.
• The Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Crimea, Sergei Aksionov, declared that Kiev had attempted to nominate a nationalist insurgents as commander of the internal ministry (police) affairs forces in Crimea and that armed insurgents had attempted to seize control of local government buildings.  He therefore appealed to Putin to help protect the Crimean Peninsula.
• Russia declared that it will act on Aksionov's request.
• Telephone, Internet and cell-phone connections were re-established in Crimea (they had been cut by unknown people yesterday)
• The Russian Parliament and the heads of the various parties represented there adopted an appeal to President Putin to take action to protect Crimea.
• In Kiev, Iatseniuk has told his finance minister to contact his Russia counterpart to begin negotiations to financial issues.
• Iatseniuk also promised never to use force in the Crimean Peninsula.
• The self-style "acting President" of the Ukraine, Alexander Turchinov, has declared that he will veto the recent bill of the insurgent-controlled Parliament in Kiev which has repealed the previous "law on languages" and that a new law will have to be adopted.
• Nationalists have taken control of an administration building in Kharkov.  A mass rally around the building has arisen, clashes have been reported between the demonstrators and the nationalists in the building, one reporter has just reported that the crowd had given assault to the building.
• Obama appeared to made a special statement warning of a "price to pay" if Russia intervened militarily in the Ukraine. 

Russian forces in Crimea

What does all that mean?  Can we discern a pattern?  Do these events hint at what the various forces confronting each other might be doing.  Let's ask a few basic questions of common sense:

1) If all parties agreed never to use any violence in Crimea, and if the local people were given a free choice on the future of the Peninsula, which side would win this referendum - the nationalists of the Russian-speaking and pro-Russian majority?  The answer is obvious - the pro-Russians would win.
2) If the pro-Russians are sure to win in any free and fair political contest, who is the party which would benefit from an escalation of violence in Crimea?  The answer is obvious again: the Ukrainian nationalists?
3) Considering that a clear majority of the local population is pro-Russia and that there are plenty of Russian forces in Crimea, what would the Kremlin gain by sending in Russian military forces into Crimea?  Again a obvious answer: nothing.
4) The insurgents in Kiev know that a clear majority of Crimeans is opposed to their rule, and Iatseniuk is trying to negotiate with Russia on economic issues, while Turchinov says that he will veto the repeal of the former law on languages, what could Kiev hope to achieve by sending in insurgent forces into Crimea?  Nothing, of course, it would only make things worse.

and now a few more question I will not immediately answer:

5) Somebody cut off all communications (phone, Internet, cell-phones) out of Crimea yesterday; today is was restored.  Who would gain from that and why?  6) Nobody disputes that some kind of unidentified but clearly professional and pro-Russian force suddenly took control of two airports in Crimea, only to later apologize and withdraw leaving just a few guards.  What could have triggered such a move?
7) Russia has admitted that it had closed the airspace over Crimea overnight.  Why would it do that?
8)  While the 6'000 Russian paratroopers claimed by Kiev appears to be false, it is most likely that some kind of Russian force, supported by helicopters, was seen in operation yesterday.  What could they have been doing?

What follows is only my interpretation and I might be 110% wrong.  Still, this is how I connect the dots.

Some kind of attack on Crimea definitely happened yesterday and it was repelled.  I don't think that the attacking side was controlled by the new regime in Kiev as Iatseniuk and Turchinov had nothing to gain from such an action and much to lose.  I think that the attacking side was a third party, most likely some kind of assault force of Ukrainian and/or Tatar nationalists organized and controlled by US special forces.  I believe that this force tried cutting off the communication lines of the local authorities and attempted to storm the Internal Ministry building to seize control of the local police.  The Russian military clearly believed that some kind of force would be sent to the Crimea by air and that triggered a move by the Russian to seize the airports and defend them by force if needed.  When they saw that their move had been detected and preempted, the attacking force withdrew.  The US was clearly worried enough about the Russian reaction to have Obama issue a public threat about a "price to pay" should Russia invade the Ukraine.  As for the Russians, they are clearly incensed and key political figures have all expressed their demand that the Kremlin take action to protect Crimea.  Both sides are clearly in shock over what took place last night.

What is going to happen next?

Frankly, I believe that unless Obama does something truly extraordinary, Russia will move additional military forces in over the week-end.  The Kremlin simply cannot appear to ignore the plea from the local population.  Considering how much the West has been lying to Russia over the past 30 years or so, it would take some truly extraordinary reassurances and guarantees from the USA to stop a Russian military move into Crimea.  Russia will also take control over the Crimean airspace.  As for the tiny and rusting Ukrainian navy force, nobody needs it, but as long as it sits tight and stays put, it will basically be ignored.

The US and EU reaction to that will be a truckload with of anti-Russians hysterics, followed by a boycott of some meetings and activities, and that's about it.  For Russia, this is even far more important that South Ossetia and Obama understands that, even if he will never acknowledge that publicly.  The US is not going to war with Russia over Crimea.  I think that the real message of Obama to Putin is "don't do the same thing in the eastern Ukraine" (Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Lugansk, etc.).

On the mid term, Crimea will vote to become an independent state within a Ukrainian Federation with the option to secede should the fascist regime remain in power in Kiev.

So what do you think?  Does my (admittedly highly speculative) interpretation make sense or do you connect the dots differently?

Kind regards,

The Saker

Statement by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the events in Ukraine

The agreement on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, which was signed on the 21 February and certified by the German, Polish and French Foreign Ministers, is still not being fulfilled. Militants have still not laid down arms, they have not freed administrative buildings, or announced their intention to “make order” in all the Ukrainian regions. There are threats of physical reprisals, as the President Viktor Yanukovych emphasised in his statement today.

The agreement to jointly investigate acts of violence and the obligation to create a national unity government, have been forgotten. Instead, as Maidan puts it, a “government of champions”, which includes representatives of national extremists, is being created.

The agreements about constitutional reform, which should precede presidential elections according to the Agreement of the 21 February, have been forgotten. We are convinced that only a constitutional framework, ensuring the interests of all responsible political forces and all regions of Ukraine, corresponds to the interests of national peace and stability in the long term.

We appeal to those western partners, who initially supported the opposition and who supported the Agreement of the 21 February, to become fully aware of their responsibility for its implementation. The statements that this document has already played its role are not serious. All the taskslisted and agreed on the 21 February, have not lost their meaning, in fact they have become even more topical to prevent further polarisation of the community as a result of radical actions.

We must stop interference in church affairs, the besmearing of Orthodox temples, memorials in honour of the heroes of the Great Patriotic War, who freed Ukraine from fascism, and other monuments.

We are seriously concerned about the cancellation of the Law on the Foundations of the State Language Policy in violation of Ukraine’s international obligations, which leads to further deprivation of the rights of minorities, restriction of the freedom of mass media, bans on the activities of individual political parties.

We currently note frequent appeals to Russia,by western countries, for cooperation about issues related to the situation in Ukraine. We proposed this long ago, long before this crisis ever entered its hot phase, however, at the time our colleagues were not disposed towards this.

Nevertheless, we are ready to interact, understanding clearly that it must be done honestly, based on the ability not only to agree, but also to fulfil the agreements, which should take into account the interests of all the Ukrainian people, as well as all partners of Ukraine. The implementation of obligations under the Agreement of the 21 February would become an important step along this path.
The attempts to replay agreed actions unilaterally every time, the lack of any wish to perceive the real situation as it is, never leads to anygood. When NATO starts reviewing the situation in Ukraine, it sends the wrong signal. It even seemed appropriate for the NATO Secretary General to mention that “Ukraine’s membership of NATO is not an urgent priority of the Ukrainian leadership”. Does this mean that membership should be a priority, but not an urgent one? They are attempting to decide for the Ukrainian people again.

We insistently recommend that everybody should refuse provocative statements and respect the out-of-bloc status of Ukraine, which is formalised in its Law on the Foundations of Domestic and Foreign Policy.

27 February 2014

What really happened overnight in Crimea?

This night sure was interesting.  It appears that a group of unidentified armed men took control of the Belbek and Simferopol airports and, according to some reports, of an air-traffic control facility, then left.  They kept a low profile, were extremely polite and said that they had come to prevent a "Ukrainian paratrooper force" from landing, but that this had been a false alarm.  They then apologized and left.  The pro-nationalist media first accused the Black Sea Fleet, which immediately issued a denial, then they blamed the Russian Spetsnaz GRU for the operation.  Interestingly, a group of Mi-24 attack helicopters was seen flying in the direction of the Belbek airport the same day, and filmed by a civilian driver on the highway.  Check it out:



Pro-nationalist sites have published the following photos which they claim show the armed men in question:

Also, a detachment of Ukrainian Border Guards in Balaklava have been surrounded by what the nationalists claim is Russian Naval Infantry unit which, according to the same sources, declared that they mission was to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of insurgents.

Finally, it was reported that a Turkish airliner which was scheduled to land in Crimea decided to turn around and fly back upon hearing the news of the seizure of the airports.

What does all that mean?

I will be honest with you and immediately admit that I don't know for sure.  My sense is that something triggered an alert on the Russian side, possibly the arrival of the Turkish aircraft.  After all, why did it turn back instead of either landing like other aircraft did, or land somewhere nearby?  Could it be that there was something aboard this plane which the Turks did not want the Russians to seize?

Concerning the helicopters seen: these are Mi-24 which the Black Sea Fleet does not use.  As far as I know, the only Mi-24 unit of the Russian Navy is the 125th Independent Helicopter Squadron of the Baltic Fleet and it is based in Chkalovsk, near Kaliningrad, very far from the Ukraine.

Again, I might be mistaken (maybe the footage is ancient, or filmed elsewhere), but I have the feeling that the nationalists are saying the truth when they claim that Russian combat helicopters have crossed the border and executed some mission in the Crimea.  I counted a dozen Mi-24 in this video, which is *a lot* of firepower.  Also, each Mi-24 can fit up to 8 soldiers, so in this case we could assume that each could carry at least 4 heavily armed soldiers and their gear, for a total of 48 combatants.  But since there is no shortage of local manpower, my guess is that these were flying as fire support for another unit, probably those who seized the airports.

But if Russia thought that some threat justified sending in 12 Mi-24s is broad daylight, could it also have sent in some Spetsnaz units?  I would say that yes, this is possible.  So, again, I think that the nationalist who claim that what they saw was a Spetsnaz GRU operation might well be right.  Lastly, and very subjectively, that very polite and low profile attitude towards bystanders is very typical of Russian Spetsnaz forces, I saw that with my own eyes in Moscow in 1993 when the arrogant and big-mouth forces which has crushed the Parliament were replaced by real Spetsnaz units: these guys were all very polite, very distant and, frankly, very scary in highly focused attitude.

So my sense is that there was some threat which was perceived serious enough by the Russian military to send in troops from across the border, probably not because of any shortage of manpower locally, but because specialized troops were better suited to the mission.  The Russian Spetsnaz secured the airports, the Naval Infantry unit blocked the Ukrainian Border Guard while the local volunteer militias were used to shut down the roads and assure general protection.  The threat than receded, and Russians left their positions and withdrew.

Or maybe there never was any threat and the purpose of all that was a show of force.  Could be.  The maneuvers ordered by Putin in western Russia will make it very hard for the US to keep track of who is doing what and under the cover of training missions a lot can be done.  So maybe this was just a way to send a message to Kiev, Brussels and Washington?

Whatever may be the case, and maybe I am totally wrong here, but my sense is that Russian forces did cross into Crimea last night.

The Saker

PS: in the meantime, the Russian Duma has been busy working on two proposed laws: on granting Russian citizenship to Ukrainians on a expedited and accelerated basis and on, I kid you not, making it easier for a foreign state to join the Russian Federation.  The writing is on the wall.

Meet the "Ukrainian Interahamwe"

This is how our friend Olexander Muzychko (aka criminal leader Sasha Biliy) spoke to a state prosecutor today: (no translation needed, obviously):


And this is an example of "Sunday sermon" by a "Greek Catholic" "priest" sent to me by a friend (thanks "FMD"):



This sermon was supposedly delivered Rev. Mikhaylo Arsenych delivered in 2010. This is the translation provided with the video:

Today we are really ready for a revolution.Would the fighters of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army tolerate Tabachnik and Yanukovych today?
The only effective methods of combat are assassination and terror!
The right way to communicate with the enemies is to fire at them!
Our message to them is the message of death by hanging. We'll send all communists to the gallows-tree in our forest!
The message is our cry for vengeance -- take your weapon and chase all fear!
It is not a good time to be afraid!
We have been waiting for 20 years!
The situation will get better only if each of us makes a contribution to the construction of our national state.
We must first knock down the old house, and then build the new one.
We must rebuild our political regime and create a new sovereign state.
Only then will we live in our own country - in a country that takes care of our needs.
We want to be masters in our own house and decide for ourselves.
We want to be sure that our children will go to Ukrainian school.
We want to be sure that no Chinese, Negro, Jew or Muscovite will try to come and grab our land tomorrow!
Our success depends on each of us. We shouldn't waver, we must keep covered todays political regime. The ground will be burning under their feet, like our torches are burning today!
Our hand must be firm! Glory to the Ukraine!

Kuntzevich and Bandera would be proud.

Personally, this reminded me of the kind of hateful propaganda the Radio-Television Libre des Mille Collines was spewing to its Interahamwe listeners in 1994 in Rwanda.  And we all know how that ended.

The Saker

The Kremlin's response to the events in the Ukraine gradually becomes more apparent

Русские долго запрягают, но быстро едут

("Russians take a lot of time to saddle up, but then they ride fast")

 Russian adage

Over the past few days the events in the Ukraine have seen a fantastic acceleration and many important events have simultaneously taken place.  I will try to look at them one by one.

• In Kiev, the leaders of the insurgency have taken full control of the Parliament and immediately passed laws revoking the official status of the Russian language.
• The political leaders of the insurgency have gone to the Maidan to obtain the approval of the proposed members of the new government.
• Just as Ms Nuland had ordered, Iatseniuk has taken the post of Prime Minister
• On the Maidan itself, deep differences are now opposing different parts of the crowd.
• The neo-Nazi leader of the "Maidan security forces" and one of the founders of the Freedom Party, Andrei Parubii, becomes chief of the Security Council.
• The leader of the neo-Nazi Right Sector. Dmitri Iarosh, has become Deputy chief of the Security Council.
• The rest of the new government are mostly supporters of ex-President Yushchenko in other words: loyal US agents.
• The new regime has disbanded the riot police thereby liquidating the last force capable of maintaining law and order in the regions controlled by the insurgents.  Now is mob rule, pure and simple.
• The local currency is in free fall, Iatseniuk claims that $35'000'000'000 are immediately needed to avoid a default.  The full debt is $170'000'000'000.
• In the regime controlled areas, "expropriations" (assault & robbery) are taking place everywhere and criminals rule the street.
• Yanukovich has been exfiltrated from the Ukraine by Russian security forces (more about that later)
• The Parliament of Tatarstan and the World Congress of Tatars has appealed to the Crimea Tatars to basically stop the crap (it was said in more police terms).  Kudos for the wisdom of these two organizations!
• Unidentified armed men have taken over the building of the Crimean Parliament at 4AM only to make sure that this time the elected members of this parliament could enter the building and convene a meeting.  A Russian flag was raised over the Parliament building
• Kharkov governor Mikhail Dobkin has resigned his post to run for President of the Ukraine on May 25th.
• The Crimean Parliament has taken over all the functions of the central government and has announced a referendum on the future of Crimean to be held on May 25th.
• The newly elected mayor of Sevastopol has met with the Commander in Chief of the Black Sea Fleet.  Both men has declared that no violence of any kind will be tolerated.
• New popular defense militias have been formed in Crimea and their numbers are estimated at somewhere between 5'000-15'000 men organized in platoons.  They have taken control of all the key roads and are now filtering traffic for any "visitors" from the insurgency-controlled areas.
• Senior members of the Russian Parliament have visited the Crimea to express their support for the local people and hold consultations with their Crimean colleagues.
• In Russia the opinions are split as to what to do:  Vladimir Zhirinovksy and his LDPR Party say that Russia should stay out of it but not pay a single Ruble to the Ukrainians.  The Communists want Russia to bring the issue to the UNSC.  The "Just Russia" Party (most "moderate") are expressing full support for the people of the Crimea and say that Russia has to intervene and assist them.  All-in-all, the takeover by over neo-Nazis in Kiev seems to be triggering a mix of disgust and rage which will put a lot of pressure on the Kremlin to do something.

So what about the Kremlin?   Actually, I think that I am beginning to discern what I believe is a multi-tiered response strategy which the Kremlin will conduct simultaneously:

1) Legal level:

By getting out Yaunk and allowing to seek refuge in Russia the Kremlin has made sure that the last legitimately elected President of the Ukraine would be physically available to challenge any and all decisions of the new regime, the insurgent-controlled Parliament and the nationalist government.  Yanuk is clearly politically dead, but in legal terms he actually is an extremely powerful and important actor which should be kept alive.

2) Ukrainian level:

The (now ex-) governor of Kharkov, Mikhail Dobkin, took a "discrete" trip to Russia and came back with the decision to resign as governor and to run for President.  First, the idea to run in an election controlled by the insurgents might appear stupid, but think again.  First, in the totally unlikely event of a halfway decent election he would most likely get elected (most Ukrainians do not support the insurgents).  Second, is the election is carefully "managed" Dobkin will be able to challenge it.  Third, by the simple fact of running he can force the insurgent-controlled media (especially the TV) to give him air time to debunk the nationalist propaganda.  So all in all, this is a very slick move.

3) In Crimea - political level:

For the Crimea I would say that it is a done deal: it will become an independent state in May.  That state will then have options open to itself.  If, by some totally unexpected and basically impossible miracle, Dobkin becomes elected, the Crimea can agree to a status quo ante but with the clear understanding that this will be a federative arrangement the Crimea can leave at any time.  If some crazy nationalist is "elected" then the Crimea will break all ties with the Ukraine and join the Economic Union with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia as an independent state.

4) In Crimea - security level:

Russia will use force to defend the Crimea if needed. The preferred solution is to assist the local authorities to defend themselves by providing funds, weapons (if needed), expertise (if needed), intelligence (if needed), etc.  But in most cases, that will not be needed simply because the locally based Black Sea Fleet can provide it all.  At most, the Ukies can send the kind of mobs they used in Kiev.  In contrast, the Black Sea Fleet can engage the 810th Independent Naval Infantry Brigade the 382nd Independent Naval Infantry Battalion and even the 102nd Independent Detachment of Navy Spetsnaz (see their emblem on picture), that is something like 1300-1400 elite soldiers all commanded by battle-hardened and experienced officers, backed by artillery, airpower, armor, etc.  In fact, I expect that local authorities, police forces (including the local Berkut and the popular self-defense militias will be able to handle any "visitors" from the insurgency by themselves, without any help from the Black Sea Fleet.  Bottom line: the insurgents will never control Crimea.

5) Eastern Ukraine:

That's were things become far more murky.  My sense is that the Kremlin is adopting a "wait and see" attitude towards the eastern Ukraine waiting to see what happens on a local level.  The core principle behind the Kremlin's policy is "we only help those who help themselves and deserve our help".  Crimea is a perfect example of this approach.  The fact is that the nationalists do have a strong presence in Kharkov, Dniepropetrovsk or Poltava so the outcome there is far more delicate to predict.

6) Rest of the Ukraine:

Here I think that the correct policy is self-evident: first, let the crazies fight each other to their heart's content. Let them run the already ruined economy into the ground, let them see how long their can survive by singing the national anthem an screaming "Бий жидів та москалів - Україна для українців" (beat the Jews and the Russians - the Ukraine for the Ukrainians).  Let the EU and the US come up with $35'000'000'000 to pay for this color-coded revolution and avoid a default, and then let them manage this new "popular and pro-western" regime.  And once they all run out of money, wait for them to call the Kremlin and ask for help.  And then, basically buy them off, one by one, factory by factory, politician by politician, oligarch by oligarch, region by region.  Russia owes these Russia-hating Nazis *nothing* and it will give them nothing for free.  The Ukies will try to retaliate by messing around with the Russian pipelines going through the Ukraine, but that is not a viable strategy: it hurts Europe first and foremost, and Russia has built two pipelines bypassing the Ukraine anyway.  Eventually, the Ukraine will break up with the west going to the EU and NATO and the Crimea to Russia.

As for China, it is already suing the new regime for breach of commercial contracts (I think, just heard/saw that somewhere on the news).  China will follow the Russian lead on this one.

7) The upcoming violence in the eastern Ukraine:

Barring a miracle, there will be a lot of violence in the eastern provinces of the Ukraine.  At this point in time I do not see a Russian military intervention to protect the Russian-speaking population which will have to defend itself.  Russia will provide a) political support b) financial support and, possibly, a limited amount of c) covert support.

That's about it, at least for the time being.  I might have to correct/refine this analysis.

As for the US/NATO, I don't believe that they will intervene militarily.  There will be A LOT of Russia-bashing, a lot of pro-Ukie propaganda, millions of US dollars will continue to flow into the pockets of the insurgency leaders, but eventually the US and its EU puppets will have to come to term with the fact that they failed to boot out the Black Sea Fleet from the Crimea and that the Crimea is going to Russia instead as a direct blowback to the color revolution the US and EU unleashed in Kiev.

What the US/EU will not do is to recognize any type of pro-Russian authority anywhere in the Ukraine.  So the country might be split like Georgia or the two Koreas are today.  That's ok, Russia and Crimea couldn't care less - let them have their own version of Kosovo for a change :-)

What do you think?  Does the above make sense?

Many thanks and kind regards,

The Saker